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Investigating the determinants

of segregation between
schools
Stephen Gorard & John Fitz
Published online: 01 Dec 2010.

To cite this article: Stephen Gorard & John Fitz (2000) Investigating the
determinants of segregation between schools, Research Papers in Education, 15:2,
115-132, DOI: 10.1080/026715200402452
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Research Papers in Education 15(2) 2000, pp. 115 132

Investigating the determinants of

segregation
between schools

Downloaded by [200.68.43.58] at 05:32 27 August 2015

Stephen Gorard and John Fitz

ABSTRACT
This paper con rms two characteristics of socio-economic segregation between schools since
1988 in England and Wales. First, using gures from all schools in England and Wales relating
to family income and special educational needs, it is made clear that overall segregation between
schools has been declining since 1988 so that schools are generally becoming more mixed
in their intakes over time. This is true of special educational needs and eligibility for, and takeup of, free school meals in both England and Wales, and at primary as well as secondary level.
Second, there are variations in segregation, and in the changes to that segregation, between
different regions. Although most LEAs show a marked decline in between-school segregation,
some show no change and a few show a marked increase. One possible explanation for these
differences is tested here, using figures relating to the growing number of parental appeals
against school placement, and the diversity of schooling available in different regions. The
intriguing result suggests that whatever is driving the ongoing desegregation in England and
Wales the changes are not primarily due to market forces. They are more likely to be due to
social and demographic changes, coupled with local authority reorganization and other more
speci cally local factors. It is also clear that, for some regions at least, the greater equality is an
`equality of poverty. These ndings are therefore a double challenge to observers who feel that
segregation is increasing and that this is a market phenomenon.
Keywords: markets; school choice; poverty; segregation

DESEGREGATION IN WALES
Theoretical models have predicted a growth in social strati cation between schools as a result
of increased market forces in school placements (Bowe et al., 1994a; Bourdieu, 1997). The
ndings of small-scale studies of school choice in urban areas of England have claimed to nd

Dr Stephen Gorard is a Reader at the School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University; Dr

John Fitz is a Reader at the School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University.

Research Papers in Education ISSN 0267-1522 print/ISSN 1470-1146 online 2000 Taylor & Francis Ltd
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals

Downloaded by [200.68.43.58] at 05:32 27 August 2015

evidence that supports these predictions (Blair 1994; Gewirtz et al., 1995) and the results from
studies of school choice in Scotland, Israel and New Zealand have provided apparent
con rmation (Willms and Echols, 1992; Goldring, 1995; Waslander and Thrupp, 1997; see
Gorard, 1999a for fuller discussion of this issue). Much academic writing is therefore based on
the `fact that markets in education have a stratifying impact (Conway, 1997; Hatcher, 1998).
However, apart from the New Zealand study whose findings are open to an alternative
interpretation (Gorard and Fitz, 1998a) none of these studies has been explicitly measuring
changes in socio-economic segregation between schools over time. A recent analysis of all
schools in South Wales, based on the relative distribution of children entitled to free school
meals, led to the opposite conclusion that schools had become less segregated in terms
of poverty since 1988 (Gorard and Fitz, 1998b). Various possible explanations for the difference
in the ndings have been suggested (e.g. Gorard, 1998a), but the results from Wales may not
be convincing to some commentators until the equivalent evidence from England and from
a greater range of schools, sectors, and measures of disadvantage is presented. This is part of what
this paper hopes to achieve, making it of necessity, result-laden and empirical in content. For
whatever the weaknesses have been in previous studies, the notion of markets having a
significant stratifying effect on school intakes is now so commonly held that it will take
substantial evidence to shake it. This paper presents a preliminary analysis of school-level data
for every state-funded school in England and Wales from 1989 to 1998. There is therefore no
issue of sampling, and no need to generalize the ndings. This is what happened, on these
measures, in the schools of England and Wales in that period.
Thus, the paper sets out to consider two related points. The rst is: has there been increased
segregation between schools since 1988? The answer would appear to be `no overall
segregation in terms of poverty and special educational need has declined in England and Wales
since 1988, as it has done in most regions and most schools within England and Wales. This
phenomenon could be due to the breaking of links between housing and local schools caused
by the introduction of increased parental choice since the 1980s (cf. Chubb and Moe, 1988),
or part of an ongoing comprehensivation process on which markets have had little impact, or
it could be due to a variety of local, regional and national factors. The second point the paper
sets out to consider is: are the changes noted related to market forces? The answers to this
question would also appear to be `no. The paper therefore outlines some more complex
potential explanations, and ways in which these are being researched.

Data analysis
The data used in this study comes from the following sources:

DfEE: School-level intake data on all secondary schools in England 1989 1997 via
spreadsheet transfer.
Population census 1991: LEA-level data on population density and characteristics via
NOMIS.
41 LEAs: School-level data 1991 1998 including some gures from primary schools via
spreadsheet transfer and personal observation of STATS1/Form7 archives.
The Education Authorities Directory and Annual (1998): school names and types, details
of local government reorganization.
DES (1990, 1991, 1992), DfE (1993, 1994, 1995), and DfEE (1996, 1997, 1998a, 1998b):

116 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

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LEA-level data on number and types of school, gures for independent schools and CTCs,
ethnicity, exclusions and SENs.
There are currently incomplete gures from some LEAs for 1998, and a lack of returns from
a few Welsh LEAs, which coupled with the abolition of ILEA in 1990, the local government
reorganizations in 1996 and 1997 including the change to unitary authorities, and concerns for
con dentiality mean that around 0.5 per cent of the data is missing at present. Complete data
from 122 LEAs for 1990 to 1997 is used in the analysis below, including all LEAs in England
(except the Corporation of London LEA which has no secondary schools). Where possible
schools have been traced through as though they were always within the smaller authority in
which they ended up. For example, the Welsh schools are analysed by unitary authority, and
there is no mention of ILEA or West Yorkshire.
School-level data, whatever its limitations and whenever it is available, is clearly
preferable to the use of summary data about the population characteristics of each schools
theoretical `catchment area, as used for example by Gibson and Asthana (1998) and advocated
for this purpose by Parsons (1998). The dangers of using `local data instead of school-based
data is exemplified in the extreme case of the sustained myth of the superiority of Welshmedium schools over their local comprehensive rivals (see Gorard, 1998b: pp. 462 463). Just
because the Welsh-medium schools exist in the same postcode locations as their more common
English-medium counterparts does not mean that their intakes are similar. Local population
gures cannot therefore be used to show school-level segregation (cf. Gorard and Fitz, 1998a).
The school-level data used in this paper consists of pupil eligibility for, or take-up of, free
school meals (see below), and statements of special educational needs. In each case, these raw
gures per school are converted into a segregation index and a segregation ratio. The index is
de ned as the proportion of students who would have to change schools for there to be an even
spread of disadvantage between schools within the area of analysis (in this paper nationally,
regionally, by LEA, and by school). More precisely the segregation index is the sum of:
(disadvantaged pupils in school [disadvantaged pupils in area * total in school/total in area])
/ 2*disadvantaged pupils in area

The sum is multiplied by 100 for convenience, and to make it easy to distinguish from the ratio
gures (see Gorard and Fitz, 1998b for further details). The ratio is de ned as the proportion
of disadvantaged students within a school over or below its `fair share (see Gorard and Fitz,
1998a for further details). More precisely it equals:
(disadvantaged pupils in school / disadvantaged pupils in area)
/ (total pupils in school / total pupils in area)

The rst gives an area summary of the between-school segregation on a measure of social or
educational disadvantage, and would be zero if there was no segregation. The second is used to
trace the `trajectory of segregation for individual schools, and would be one for all schools if
there was no segregation in a particular year.
While in Wales the Welsh Of ce STATS1 form requested a return of eligibility for free
school meals (FSM) since 1989, the equivalent DfEE Form7 requested take-up of FSM until
1993, only then requesting eligibility as well as take-up. Where possible the analysis below uses
eligibility gures, since they are regarded as the most appropriate (Gorard and Fitz, 1998a)

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 117

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being de ned by law and unchanged in de nition from 1989 1998. Take-up of FSM on the
other hand may be affected by local and cultural customs and may therefore show more
variability. Nevertheless, the DfEE gures from 1989 to 1992 are based on take-up, and it is
therefore important to consider whether these may show a different picture.
The method of calculating a segregation index (see above) overcomes any problem caused
by differences in the actual numbers taking and eligible for free school meals, in a way that simply
presenting percentages per year does not. When calculated for both measures in those years for
which both gures are available, the results are mostly in reasonably close agreement (e.g. Table
1). Sometimes the index for take-up is larger, and sometimes smaller than for eligibility. It is
interesting that the largest consistent difference is between the two gures for Hammersmith
and Fulham LEA (and this could be signi cant in the light of results below). In fact, the change
in recording FSM from take-up to eligibility, if anything, is likely to have increased the apparent
segregation between schools, making the overall downward trend, to be described below, even
more convincing. Perhaps the most important evidence that either measure is equally useful at
this level of aggregation lies in the similarity between the overall results for Wales (where only
eligibility is used) and England (where take-up is used until 1993).
Table 1: Comparison of eligibility for FSM(and take-up)
LEA

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Camden
Hammersmith and Fulham
Haringey
Hounslow
Islington

18
20
15
17
10

15
21
17
17
9

16
23
16
18
6

17
24
18
20
7

17
27
17
18
5

19 (18)
18 (20)

(17)
(19)
(15)
(20)
(10)

(16)
(19)
(17)
(18)
(9)

(18)
(20)
(16)
(19)
(9)

(15)
(22)
(20)
(21)
(11)

(14)
(21)
(16)
(18)
(9)

The gures for statements of special educational need (SEN) are less complete, not being
required in the annual returns from schools until 1994 (1995 for Wales). It should also be borne
in mind that the gures for SEN are likely to be less accurate than those for FSM. There are
several indications of discrepancies in the completion of Form7 and STATS1 by schools. Thus
signi cant annual changes may be produced by a simple change in the procedure of recording.
In Bristol LEA, for example, the number of cases of SEN recorded on the Form7 in the rst
year that the question was introduced was of a different order of magnitude to those in any
subsequent years, possibly due to a confusion over the distinction between Columns A and B
SEN. Nevertheless the analysis of these gures is important because it triangulates with the other
ndings, producing a very similar picture of desegregation to other indicators.
The analysis of changes over time is notoriously problematic (Gorard, 1999b; White and
Gorard, 1999), but the same method of measuring relative change in a variable whose `raw
values are also changing is used here as in previous work in other elds by the same author (e.g.
Gorard et al., 1999). The change in segregation within an LEA between two years is de ned
as the difference between the two years divided by the total for the two years (multiplied by
100 for convenience). For example, the change in segregation for an area from 1989 to 1997
is de ned as:
(Index97 Index89)*100
/ (Index97 + Index89)

118 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

Relationships between pairs of variables are calculated using Pearsons R correlations (and only
results signi cant at the 1 per cent level are cited). Differences between groups of LEAs in terms
of changes in segregation are assessed using t-tests for independent samples. The change in
segregation indices over time is also used as the dependent variable in a multiple linear regression
analysis (Berry and Feldman, 1985).

When this analysis is applied to England for FSM, a very similar picture appears to that already
described for Wales. Nationally, segregation between schools in terms of this measure has
declined from a high of 36 per cent to around 30 per cent (Fig. 1).1 Segregation is higher in
England (around 30 per cent) than in Wales (around 20 per cent). It is worth noting that the
most important drops come in 1991/92 and 1992/93 before the change in recording from
take-up to eligibility for free school meals to which they cannot therefore be related. The graph
also shows a slight temporary increase in segregation for 1990, which has previously been
observed in Wales, and tentatively explained in terms of a policy-related `starting-gun effect
(Gorard and Fitz, 1998a; and see below). The values in Fig. 1 are calculated as the total for each
school in relation to the national gures for families in poverty.
This overall pattern of reduced segregation between schools also appears in every region in
England (Table 2). The values in Table 2 are calculated as the total for each school in relation
to the relevant regional gures for families in poverty. The greatest proportionate decreases are
in Inner London, Outer London, the South East, and the South West. Of these the rst three
are the most densely populated regions, and therefore perhaps the most likely to show change
in a market-like situation.
40.

30.
Segregation Index

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DESEGREGATION IN ENGLAND

20.

10.

0.
89

90

91

92

93
Year

94

95

96

97

Fig. 1: Change in FSMsegregation over time in England.

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 119

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Table 2: Change in FSMsegregation over time in English regions

Region

1989

1990 1991

1992 1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

North East
North West
Yorkshire/Humberside
East Midlands
West Midlands
Eastern
Inner London
Outer London
South East
South West

24
31
32
31
34
30

34
27

24
32
33
32
35
31
18
30
34
28

23
32
32
30
34
29
19
28
33
25

23
30
30
28
31
26
16
25
30
23

23
29
29
28
31
27
16
25
30
22

22
29
29
28
32
27
15
25
30
24

22
29

29
31

15
25
30
23

25
33
34
32
35
32
19
30
34
27

24
31
30
29
32
27
16
27
32
23

Analysis at an authority level shows that 71 of the 122 LEAs had a marked decline in socioeconomic segregation between secondary schools from 1989 to 1997. Of these, 35 had a
proportionate decline in double gures (Table 3). Although these LEAs contain a considerable
variety including urban and rural, English and Welsh, large and small, there is an overall
impression of middle-sized urban areas with relatively high population density (and therefore
by de nition mostly in England). None of the very small or sparsely populated areas appears in
this list, nor do the predominantly rural counties with very large numbers of schools (e.g. Essex,
Gloucestershire). The LEAs in Table 3 are perhaps precisely the kind that would contain
local markets with a relatively large number of schools within easy reach of each family that
market theorists would have predicted. It is also the case that several of these LEAs have reduced
the number of their schools as part of a reorganization to cut out spare places. Some may also
be faced with signi cant numbers of families who use schools in adjacent LEAs. Both of these
phenomena might reduce segregation, the rst by forcing the redistribution of pupils among
schools, and the second by reducing variation among the families using local schools. However,
these can only be partial explanations, since substantial reorganization for most LEAs has been
a one-off event, and anyway segregation in the whole of England and Wales has declined (see
above), and this could not due to families shuf ing between LEAs, any more than it could be
due to an increase in using schools in Scotland or fee-paying places.
Another 36 LEAs also showed signi cant declines in overall segregation. Again, despite the
variety there is an overall similarity in this list. Most areas are suburban or relatively densely
populated rural counties (Table 4).
Twenty-six LEAs showed little change in segregation after 10 years, although it should
be noted that in the majority of these, segregation has declined marginally, and that all of
the remainder show years in which segregation has been lower than it was in 1989. In some
cases the lack of change may be to do with lack of alternative schools (the Scilly Isles with only
one school being the most extreme case) or low population density (Dyfed being the most
extreme case with an average 0.2 persons per hectare and no towns greater than 5,000
inhabitants). In other cases, such as Liverpool, the reason for the lack of change is harder to nd.
Perhaps a reason is not needed. Rather a reason should be sought for why inner-city areas such
as Islington and Hammersmith (see below) have such markedly different changes in measured
segregation between their schools. One possible explanation lies in the LEA procedure for
allocating contested secondary school places. In Cardiff for example, secondary schools have
matched primary schools whose leavers are guaranteed a place. As the primary schools run a

120 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

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Table 3: LEAs showing marked decline in segregation 198997

LEA

1989 1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Gain
%

Islington
Southwark
Wandsworth
Knowsley
Stockport
Brent
Waltham
Westminster
East Sussex
Manchester
Wiltshire
Cornwall
Isle of Wight
Rotherham
Trafford
Harrow
Rochdale
Tower Hamlets
Swansea
Camden
Doncaster
Oxfordshire
Wrexham
Bexley
Cambridge
Bedfordshire
Hampshire
Lambeth
North Tyneside
Wake eld
Warwickshire
Leeds
Leicestershire
Newham
Northamptonshire

10
14
18
12
30
29
26
22
27
15
27
17
18
24
35
17
24
15
35
22
24
38
14
30
34
37
33
15
25
28
28
34
37
11
33

11
12
22
11
32
26
29
21
23
17
26
18
17
24
29
14
20
19
33
16
25
35
14
31
34
38
32
18
30
30
29
37
37
12
30

11
13
16
14
28
26
29
21
23
17
22
17
16
21
26
16
23
18
31
18
21
32
14
27
31
35
29
20
27
29
27
34
33
13
31

10
9
13
8
25
19
17
17
21
14
19
13
12
21
27
15
20
12
30
18
18
31
14
21
28
29
27
11
21
24
25
31
31
12
27

9
10
10
8
23
17
15
15
16
11
19
12
11
18
26
15
20
12
28
15
18
30
14
21
27
28
25
11
17
21
25
30
30
11
27

6
7
10
6
19
16
15
14
18
11
20
12
12
19
26
16
18
9
26
16
18
31
14
22
26
29
26
10
18
21
25
31
31
12
25

7
7
9
6
18
15
16
13
18
9
19
12
13
16
26
14
18
9
27
17
18
29
10
22
27
29
26
11
18
22
23
29
30
10
27

5
7
9
6
16
16
16
14
18
10
18
12
13
17
25
12
18
11
26
17
18
29
11
24
27
30
27
12
20
22
23
28
30
9
27

33
33
33
32
30
29
24
22
20
20
19
18
18
18
17
16
15
15
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10

15
13
17
10
32
27
27
17
26
16
27
18
17
24
28
16
25
17
35
17
23
36
14
28
35
38
33
14
26
29
30
35
38
12
31

catchment area system, effectively so do the secondary schools. It may therefore not be surprising
to some to nd Cardiff LEA appearing in Table 5 (although it should be noted that many LEAs
in England and Wales run a similar system). Similar considerations apply to LEAs who are only
prepared to fund free travel to the closest school to home. In effect, these LEAs are saying
to poor families, the government claims you can choose any school you like but if you choose
a non-adjacent one you are left to pay for the travel. Another factor inhibiting change in some
areas could be the guidelines used to allocate contested places. For example, the rule that siblings
of those already in school take priority would lead to slight inhibition in the year-on-year
socio-economic variation within a school.

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 121

Downloaded by [200.68.43.58] at 05:32 27 August 2015

Table 4: LEAs showing decline in segregation 198997

LEA

1989 1990 1991

1992 1993 1994

1995

1996 1997

Gain
%

Avon
Bradford
Richmond
Bridgend
Calderdale
Croydon
Merton
Solihull
West Sussex
Hereford Worcester
Lewisham
Sefton
St Helens
Tameside
Cleveland
Lancashire
Northumberland
Nottinghamshire
Redbridge
Somerset
Surrey
Gloucestershire
Hackney
Hertfordshire
Salford
Sandwell
South Tyneside
Wigan
Cheshire
Coventry
Essex
Greenwich
Humberside
Birmingham
Camarthenshire
Norfolk

29
31
19
21
29
27
23
43
23
27
11
32
27
19
25
30
30
30
24
20
28
33
11
32
25
18
15
24
34
20
28
13
31
25
19
20

23
31
18
21
31
24
25
40
26
30
10
33
25
23
24
28
30
28
24
23
28
32
11
29
27
23
15
23
33
19
29
11
29
25
19
19

24
25
17
16
27
24
19
38
22
24
9
28
23
16
22
26
27
26
23
16
24
26
10
29
22
14
13
21
31
20
26
10
29
23
21
19

24
26
15
19
27
23
18
36
20
24
9
27
23
18
22
26
28
25
22
16
25
28
10
29
22
15
11
21
30
19
26
11
28
23
20
19

9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3

28
31
19
21
30
29
26
43
23
25
11
29
23
19
26
31
31
29
26
21
27
33
13
30
25
23
14
23
34
21
30
16
30
27
19
20

27
32
18
21
31
28
24
43
29
27
10
30
23
20
25
33
29
29
28
22
29
33
13
31
27
24
15
23
34
21
31
14
30
27
19
22

23
28
20
19
27
27
19
43
23
27
12
31
25
20
25
28
30
27
22
17
27
28
8
30
29
20
13
24
33
20
27
10
29
24
19
21

23
26
16
18
30
23
19
39
21
25
11
30
22
17
22
26
26
26
25
15
23
28
8
28
24
17
13
19
31
20
26
10
29
24
19
19

24
26
16
18
25
23
19
37
20
24
10
28
23
16
22
26
27
26
21
18
24
29
10
29
22
16
13
21
31
19
26
12
28
24
17
19

Only 25 LEAs showed an increase in segregation of 3 per cent or more, and it should be
noted that nearly all show years in which segregation declined below the 1989 gure as well
(Table 6). These include all types of LEAs, urban and rural, English and Welsh, large and small.
Of these 25, seven showed very signi cant increases Barking, Ealing, Kensington, Hounslow,
Caerphilly, Haringey and Hammersmith only the last of which showed a regular year-onyear increase. These LEAs may share some similarities as `suburban areas of a capital city. Some
of these LEAs, such as Bromley and Buckinghamshire, run an overtly selective system of
grammar schools, while others, such as Haringey, are deeply affected by the policy of GMS.

122 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

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Table 5: LEAs showing little change in segregation 198997

LEA

1989 1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995 1996

1997

Gain
%

Devon
Hillingdon
Liverpool
Rhondda Cyn. Taff
Barnet
Cardiff
Derbyshire
Gateshead
Kent
Kingston
Merthyr Tyd l
North Yorkshire
Shropshire
Berkshire
Clwyd
Dorset
Dyfed
Kirklees
Scilly Isles
Suffolk
Sunderland
Walsall
Dudley
Lincolnshire
Staffordshire
Sutton

24
27
19
18
25
35
26
25
30
24
13
28
26
35
16
24
15
30
0
24
13
26
24
30
25
36

23
22
19
18
26
34
28
25
30
26
15
28
28
36
16
24
15
30
0
26
15
26
26
30
26
37

22
25
18
18
25
36
26
24
30
23
13
29
28
32
16
23
15
30
0
22
17
25
27
31
26
34

22
25
17
19
25
34
26
23
29
23
12
28
27
33
16
23
15
28
0
20
16
24
24
29
25
34

23
25
17
17
22
34
26
25
29
26
13
28
26
33
16
23
16
29
0
22
16
24
25
29
24
35

23
26
18
17
25
34
25
24
30
23
13
28
25
35
16
24
15
30
0
23
13
25
25
30
25
37

2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1

26
23
18
18
28
35
28
26
31
23
13
29
27
34
16
25
15
33
0
28
14
26
24
32
26
37

23
19
20
18
24
35
29
28
32
28
13
28
26
33
16
24
15
32
0
27
19
28
29
31
26
41

23
26
18
17
25
35
25
24
28
24
13
28
26
35
16
23
15
28
0
24
16
25
25
30
25
35

These factors may explain part of their difference to the majority of the 122 LEAs in this analysis.
It is also clear from Table 1 (above) that at least part of the remarkable change in Hammersmith
and Fulham may be due to the change in recording of data in 1993.
The differences between LEAs reinforces the importance of considering regional differences
in the sociology of education (cf. Rees et al., 1997), and highlights the danger of attempting to
generalize from a small-scale study. An analyst working in only one LEA, for example, may
select one or two of the London or Metropolitan boroughs near the head of Table 6, and
despite including the necessary caveats in their reporting may lead their readers to believe that
a national picture can therefore be deduced.

DESEGREGATION IN OTHER INDICATORS

Although there is no intention here to dispute that schools operating in a performance-led
market may indeed feel compelled to `privilege the academic thereby marginalizing the needs
of SEN students and their parents (Bagley and Woods, 1998), the fact remains that where
gures are available they show that the spread of SEN is becoming more even across schools.

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 123

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Table 6: LEAs showing increase in segregation 198997

LEA

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

1994 1995 1996 1997

Gain
%

Buckinghamshir e
Bury
En eld
Newcastle upon Tyne
Pembroke
Shef eld
Wirral
Wolverhampton
Bromley
Neath Port Talbot
Barnsley
Oldham
Flintshire
Havering
Cumbria
Durham
Bolton
Conwy
Barking
Ealing
Kensington
Hounslow
Caerphilly
Haringey
Hammersmith

41
20
22
21
13
24
24
17
29
12
17
28
17
26
24
17
27
14
9
14
15
14
9
13
13

41
21
27
22
15
25
26
19
31
14
19
29
18
30
30
19
29
14
9
11
16
17
9
17
21

3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
11
12
12
13
14
15
35

41
23
23
23
18
23
23
22
37
12
20
31
17
30
28
18
28
14
19
13
18
18
8
9
16

39
25
25
23
15
24
25
18
37
15
20
32
17
30
27
19
30
14
12
12
20
16
8
15
17

41
27
25
23
15
25
28
20
33
14
19
35
17
32
29
18
26
14
8
11
25
19
9
20
19

44
27
27
23
15
24
26
17
30
12
18
31
17
31
30
19
28
14
11
11
25
17
10
15
20

41
22
25
22
15
26
25
17
31
15
21
30
18
33
29
20
29
14
8
12
18
18
10
16
23

42
24
24
21
16
27
27
17
32
12
18
30
19
31
27
19
30
16
8
13
17
20
10
18
24

43
21
24
23
14
26
26
18
32
13
19
31
19
30
28
20
32
16
12
17
19
18
12
17
27

Indeed, unlike other measures of educational disadvantage such as family poverty, this is not
apparently related to any overall increase in the number of statemented children. For example,
although in Bolton LEA statements of special educational need increased from a total of 213 in
1994 to 473 in 1997, in Cornwall they declined from 2,515 to 1,497, while in Wrexham they
remained steady at 365 to 368. Despite these differences all three exemplar LEAs experienced
desegregation over time (see Table 7).
A very similar pattern emerges from the sparse data from primary schools that has been made
available so far in this project (serendipitously). Segregation between schools in terms of families
in poverty is decreasing over time (see for example Table 8).

WHAT IS DRIVING THIS PROCESS?

In trying to decide what is producing the overall desegregation and its local variations, perhaps
the rst step should be to look at the history of individual schools. Do some LEAs display
`polarization whereby most schools are moving towards a more equal share of FSM pupils,
but one or two schools are becoming `sink institutions taking the surplus pupils from a
disadvantaged background? In fact, this possibility is catered for by the method, and has already

124 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

Table 7: SEN Segregation index 194497

LEA

1994

1995

1996

1997

Bolton
Cornwall
Wrexham

25
22

25
22
17

20
11
16

20
12
14

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Table 8: FSMSegregation index (primary schools) 194497

LEA

1994

1995

1996

1997

Hounslow

19

16

17

15

been shown to be false in Wales (see Gorard and Fitz, 1998b). The number of schools moving
away from the `ideal of a proportionate share of children from poor families, and the size of
that movement, are directly related to the segregation index for their LEA. For example,
Haringey has nine schools which collectively show an increase in segregation from 13 19 per
cent. It should therefore be no surprise to discover that seven of these schools are further from
an equal share of FSM, while only two are closer (Table 9). It is also clear, as it was in the detailed
analysis of six LEAs from Wales (Gorard and Fitz, 1998b), that no school has become anything
like a `sink school in a spiral of decline over the ten years. In fact, the most disadvantaged
school in 1989 (school b), which was the closest to a sink school in 1989, is the school showing
the largest shift towards an even share of FSM pupils.
In Islington, on the other hand, with the same number of schools as Haringey but an overall
drop in segregation from 15 5 per cent, only one school (i) moves away from an equal share
of FSM (and this is a voluntary-aided one moving towards a decreasing share of disadvantage).
The other eight all move closer to parity in terms of segregation (Table 10). As in Haringey,
the most disadvantaged school in 1990 (f) shows the largest shift towards an even share of FSM
pupils, matched by an equal and opposite shift by the most advantaged school (c) which starts
Table 9: Changes in segregation ratio for each school in Haringey
Haringey

1989
1997

1.42
1.37

2.18
1.47

0.41
0.27

0.93
0.71

1.01
0.73

1.01
1.46

0.90
1.25

0.85
0.84

0.88
1.32

Table 10: Changes in segregation ratio for each school in Islington

Islington

1990
1997

0.80
0.94

0.69
1.12

0.56
1.08

0.93
0.96

0.81
1.10

1.72
1.10

1.49
0.96

1.17
0.98

1.13
0.76

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 125

40.

30.
Percentage appeals

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with nearly half of its fair share of FSM pupils and now takes slightly more than its fair share.
In every LEA that has been examined in detail so far a similar picture emerges. As with England
and Wales overall, and the regions and LEAs within them, the schools themselves are generally
moving towards an even spread of FSM pupils, and there are few `losers in this process. As
already stated, if polarization between schools had occurred it would be picked up by this form
of analysis.
One key potential explanation for the socio-economic desegregation of schools since 1988
could be the concurrent increase in parental choice. It may be that programmes of choice, by
ending `selection by mortgage, have allowed poor families greater access to desirable schools.
It has already been suggested elsewhere that the `starting-gun effect could be the result of
slowly increasing awareness of consumer rights among poorer families, resulting in an enormous
increase in appeals against allocation of a non-choice secondary school (in Gorard and Fitz,
1998a). If this were so, one might expect the pattern of changes in segregation in any area to
be related to the proportion of parents prepared to appeal. Appeals are being used here as an
indicator of competitiveness in the local market in which they occur, and of the proportion of
`alert families willing and able to appeal (Willms and Echols, 1992). If the changes noted above
are related to market forces, then the changes should perhaps be greater in areas where a higher
proportion of parents go to appeal. In fact, this is not so (see Fig. 2). There is no signi cant
relationship between appeals per LEA in 1994/95 and desegregation, and no clear pattern in
the graph. One of the LEAs with the largest decline in segregation had zero appeals (Knowsley),
while the LEA with the largest proportion of appeals had an increase in segregation close to
zero (En eld). All of this suggests that there is no positive relationship between the observed
changes in segregation and the level of competition for places in schools.

20.

10.

0.
-60.

-50.

-40.

-30.

-20.

-10.

Change in segregation

Fig. 2: Relationship between appeals and desegregation.

126 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

10.

20.

30.

Downloaded by [200.68.43.58] at 05:32 27 August 2015

Although this method of analysis may be seen as overcoming differences in the raw gures
for FSM in each region, it may be that the changes in segregation are linked to differences
in socio-economic structure between areas and over time. For example, since segregation is
less in Wales, where the population itself is less variable in terms of class structure, income and
other socio-economic indicators (Gorard, 1998a), perhaps this is a clue that segregation depends
on the local variability of potential school users as much as their allocation to schools. If so, it
may be important that although the total school population of the schools featured in this paper
grew from 2,958,268 pupils in 1989 to 3,216,135 in 1997, the number of pupils eligible for
free school meals grew from 506,066 in 1993 (the rst year in which eligibility was returned
by all schools) to 590,379 in 1997.2
Does this increase from 17 18 per cent of pupils eligible for free schools meals, which
represents a considerable increase in the of cial assessment of children from families in poverty,
also represent an increase or a decrease in the variability of the population of England and
Wales? If an increase in the raw gures is equivalent to a decrease in variability (or perhaps
increasing polarization by income) then at least part of the desegregation could be due to this
a form of `equality of poverty. This hypothesis is backed up by the strong link between
the level of segregation, its change over ten years, and the initial percentage FSM gure for
each LEA. Areas with a higher proportion of pupils taking FSM tend to have lower levels
of segregation (correlation coef cient of 0.54), and to show a greater proportionate drop
in segregation over time ( 0.27). This is interesting because it is contrary to the authors
pre-conceptions that segregation would be worse in areas with high levels of poverty. It is also
noteworthy, that despite the overall lack of relationship between appeals and desegregation,
appeals are slightly more common in areas with higher proportions of FSM (+0.25). This is also
contrary to preconceptions which would assume that areas with higher levels of poverty would
have fewer families prepared to appeal. Another way of reading the same data would be that
areas with highly polarized family incomes are generating more appeals in a system of choice
based on league table indicators.
Although the linear correlation between the type and diversity of schools in each LEA and
the change in segregation is very weak, an interesting non-linear distribution is observed in
relation to the number of selective schools, and changes in segregation (Fig. 3). In general,
areas with a large number of grammar schools show little change in segregation, and areas with
large changes (in either direction) have no grammar schools (the `outlier of Trafford is worthy
of further investigation). The same pattern is observed for grant-maintained and fee-paying
schools as well.3 It may be that the elements of selection inherent in a system with more diversity
is inhibiting changes in the distribution of intakes that is occurring in other areas. If so, as with
the data for appeals, this is another nding suggesting a lack of relationship between markets
and desegregation. Market theorists may have expected areas with a greater diversity of schools
to show the greatest changes in enrolment. This is clearly not so. In fact, it is the areas primarily
populated by notionally equivalent LEA-controlled comprehensives that have shown the
greatest changes (in either direction).
It is also clear that LEAs with more schools have less segregated school populations
(correlation coef cient of 0.38). This may be related to a difference between metropolitan and
county LEAs, but it may also indicate that a larger number of schools to choose from is a good
thing from the point of view of desegregation. However, this is an unlikely explanation for while
segregation has declined nationally from 1989, so has the number of secondary schools.
The database includes a large number of descriptive and potential explanatory variables for
each school and LEA, many of which are interrelated. If these linked variables are converted

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 127

40.

Percentage selective

30.

20.

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10.

0.
-60.

-50.

-40.

-30.

-20.

-10.

10.

20.

30.

Change in segregation

Fig. 3: Change in segregation by percentage selective schools in 1991.

to composite scores (for example by converting the number on roll from 1989 to 1997 to an
average number on roll per year), then eight separate orthogonal components emerge. These
are: size of LEA; relative poverty; average segregation; school diversity and selection; local
fee-paying provision; drop in number of schools 1989 1991; drop in number of schools
1991 1996; and proportion of appeals. When these are used as the independent variables in
a multiple linear regression analysis with the scale of change in segregation 1989 97, their
coef cients are as in Table 10. Of these only two the percentage of pupils eligible for free
school meals and the proportionate decrease in the number of schools 1989 91 are clearly
signi cant. In general, LEAs with high levels of poverty which did not close many schools
before 1991 show the greatest changes over time in segregation.
Table 11: Regression coef cients
Variable

Standardized coef cient

Signi cance

FSM
Reorganization 8991
Fee-paying
Appeals
Diversity/selection
Size
Reorganization 9196
Population density
Segregation

+0.46
0.21
+0.19
0.16
0.12
0.11
0.08
0.04
0.01

.00
.04
.09
.22
.30
.40
.46
.81
.99

128 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2

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The overall model has an R value of 0.66, meaning that these eight components can explain
only 44 per cent of the variance in desegregation. The relative weakness of this model may not,
of course, mean that each component is weakly related to changes in segregation, but that the
relationship is not a linear one. In fact, scatter plots suggest a relationship for many variables
which is not linear (see discussion above concerning Fig. 3). LEAs with the lowest change in
segregation over time are those with large numbers of schools (mainly rural areas). In addition,
LEAs with the greatest change in segregation over time are those with very few schools. This
might be a valuable nding showing that ease of travel is key to the operation of a market,
or it could be an indication that for rural areas at least, the LEA is not such a useful unit of
assessment.
A mirror image relationship is observed for the proportion of schools closed from 1989 to
1991 (and to a lesser extent for later LEA reorganizations as well). These took place chie y to
save on excess places, but a by-product has been that segregation has remained fairly constant
in areas with high rates of closure. Conversely areas with large changes in segregation over time
have experienced little or no reduction in the number of schools. It is perhaps not surprising
that the only variable with evidence of a linear relationship with segregation is the one with
the highest coef cient in linear regression the percentage of pupils eligible for free school
meals. In general, areas with higher levels of poverty show greater changes over time.
All of these results are rather unsatisfying. Powerful social movements have been observed,
but the evidence for their determinants is so far partial and contradictory. In essence, if an
assumption is made that the changes in segregation can be explained further, then the regression
analysis, while interesting, shows that signi cant variables have so far been omitted. The residual
variance unexplained by the model could be partly attributable to a random `error term
(although it should be noted that there is no sampling error in this case), and partly linked to
differential processes taking place within individual schools and LEAs. Further analysis needs
to be done at a lower level of aggregation, involving local reorganizations, diversity of schools,
variations in admission policies, funding of free travel, handling of appeals, and availability of
public transport facilities. Collection and analysis of the necessary in-depth data for a strati ed
sub-sample of LEAs and schools is therefore the next key task for this study.

CONCLUSIONS
Socio-economic segregation in England has declined in almost exactly the same way as
previously demonstrated for Wales. This is true whether the data are analysed at a national,
regional, LEA or school level. There are the same types of variations between regions, and
some evidence of a `starting-gun effect. The so-called `contradiction between the ndings for
England and Wales (see Gorard, 1998a) has been resolved. Once again it appears that the small
and manageable dataset relating to the principality of Wales (a usefully variable social laboratory)
has been used to foreshadow similar ndings from the more complex dataset representing the
schools of England (see Gorard, 1999c for further examples).
If the decrease in segregation is not due to increased competition for school places, as
indicated by the growth in appeals, nor to the increasing diversity of provision in developed
local markets, then what are the determinants of this powerful social movement? Some partial
explanations have been suggested including local changes in the organization of schools,
demographic shifts, diversity of schools, changes in travel arrangements, and school admission
policies. The next stage of this study will involve a more detailed analysis of factors such as these

Investigating Segregation Between Schools 129

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in a representative subset of LEAs and schools. The early work in Wales did not consider
segregation by ethnicity, since national records of this were so poor, and there is little ethnic
variation (as de ned by OPCS) in Wales anyway. Some consideration of changes in England
in this respect is also necessary, since it may be perfectly possible for ethnicity to show a different
pattern to FSM and SEN.4
However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, those who believed that a programme
of school choice would lead to an increasingly strati ed school system appear to be wrong on
two counts. Strati cation has decreased rather than increased, but there is little evidence that
this change is related to the introduction of a limited market for schools. In fact, markets may
have much less impact on education systems than is popularly believed (but see Levin and
Riffel, 1995), and the advent of choice may be truly both less bene cial than some advocates
suggest, and less harmful than some critics fear.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors wish to thank the DfEE (especially Sam Walton) for providing the bulk of the data,
and the 41 participating LEAs for their cooperation. This work has been partly funded by
ESRC grant R000238031.

NOTES
1 Since this paper was prepared, the equivalent gures for 1988 99 have been processed. While the
gures for 1998 are the same as those for 1997, those for 1999 show a slight upturn in segregation by
FSM for the rst time since 1990. Segregation in terms of all other indicators has continued to fall. No
reason is suggested for this change.
2 Some observers have disputed such indicators of a rise in poverty (e.g. Pryke, 1995), and while their
arguments may not be valid here, they do at least prompt further consideration of the meaning of the
FSM measure used here.
3 This pattern has been con rmed by a t-test. If those LEAs with less than or equal to 5 per cent selective
schools form one group, their mean change in segregation (in either direction) is around 10 per cent
whereas for those LEAs with more than 5 per cent selective schools their mean change is less than 5
per cent. This difference is signi cant at the 1 per cent level. However, the relationship is not linear
since although most LEAs with selective schools show little change in segregation, many LEAs with
no selective schools do the same.
4 DfEE records for ethnicity, rst language, and special educational needs have now been gathered for
all secondary schools in England, and records for free school meals, ethnicity, rst language, and special
educational needs have been gathered for all primary schools in England as well. Early analysis of these
gures at national and regional level shows the same overall pattern of desegregation as described in
this paper, for all indicators and for both the primary and secondary sectors.

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CORRESPONDENCE
Stephen Gorard, School of Social Sciences (formerly School of Education), Cardiff University,
Cardiff
Tel: +44 (0)1222 875113; Fax: +44 (0)1222 874160; Email: gorard@cardiff.ac.uk

132 Research Papers in Education Volume 15 Number 2