NextGenerationEarth

SystemPrediction:
StrategiesforSubseasonal
toSeasonalForecasts
RaymondBan(CommitteeChair)
BanandAssociates,LLC

RobertHallberg
NOAA/GeophysicalFluidDynamics
Laboratory

ScottSandgathe
UniversityofWashington

insertcoverimage

Weather,Water,andClimateForecasts
areVitaltoDecisionMaking
Businesses

Governments

Individuals

ForecastTimescales
Weather

014Days

Subseasonal

212Weeks

Seasonal

312Months

Interannual

1year Decade

Climate

Decades Centuries

Subseasonal
toSeasonal
(S2S)
2weeks12
months

WhatifLongerRangeForecastsWereMore
SkillfulandWidelyUsed?
Manydecisionsmustbe
madeinthespace
betweenweatherforecasts
andclimateprojections
ImprovingS2Sforecasts
wouldbenefitmany
sectorsofsociety
Willimproveplanningand
preparation tohelpsave
lives,protectproperty,
increaseeconomicvitality

CurrentStateofS2SForecasting
S2Sforecasts
areincreasingly
usedin
agriculture,
energy,and
waterresource
management
butmore
engagement
withusersin
othersectors
willincreaseuse

PrecipitationOutlookforAprilJune2016
IssuedMarch15,2016

CurrentStateofS2SForecasting

PredictionSkillandPredictibility (#ofDays)

Scientificknowledgegap,gapsinobservationsand
modeling,andlimitedcomputationalcapacitycurrently
limitaccuracyofS2Sforecasts

Figure4.2
Neena etal.,J.Climate,2014

Estimatesof
predictability
(i.e.upperlimit)
ofMJO
predictionskill
Rangeofpresent
dayMJOforecast
skill

Indicationof
significant
roomfor
forecastskill
improvement

WhyThisStudy?
SponsoredbyOfficeofNavalResearch,Heising
SimonsFoundation,NASA,andNASArthurL.Day
Fund
Task:
Todescribeastrategytoincreasethenation's
capacityforS2Sforecasting
Todevelopa10yearscientificresearchagendato
accelerateprogress

CommitteeRoster

RaymondJ.Ban(Chair),Banand

Associates,LLC
CeciliaBitz,Universityof
Washington
AndyBrown,UKMetOffice
EricChassignet,FloridaState
University
JohnA.Dutton,PrescientWeather,
Ltd.
RobertHallberg,NOAAGeophysical
FluidDynamicsLaboratory
Anke Kamrath,NationalCenterfor
AtmosphericResearch
DarylKleist,UniversityofMaryland,
CollegePark

PierreF.J.Lermusiaux,

MassachusettsInstituteof
Technology
HaiLin,EnvironmentCanada
LauraMyers,UniversityofAlabama
JuliePullen,StevensInstituteof
Technology
ScottSandgathe,Universityof
Washington
MarkShafer,TheUniversityof
Oklahoma
DuaneWaliser,JetPropulsion
Laboratory
Chidong Zhang,UniversityofMiami

Committeeheldfiveinpersonmeetings,spokewithdozensofresearchersandusers
Reportreviewedby12outsideexperts

TheCommitteesVision
S2Sforecastswillbeas
widelyusedadecadefrom
nowasweatherforecasts
aretoday
Fulfillingthisvisionwill
takesustainedeffortand
investment

FulfillingtheVision:ResearchStrategies
1. EngageUsers
2. IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
3. Improve
Predictionof
DisruptiveEvents
4. IncludeMore
EarthSystem
Components

ResearchStrategy1 EngageUsers
Currently,thereisamismatch
betweenavailableS2Sforecasts
andmanyendusersneeds
RecommendationA:Developa
bodyofsocialscienceresearchthat
leadstomorecomprehensiveand
systematicunderstandingofthe
useandbarrierstouseofseasonal
andsubseasonalEarthsystem
predictions.

ResearchStrategy1 EngageUsers
Moredialoguebetweenresearchers,forecastersanduserswill:
AccelerateapplicationofS2Sforecaststodecisionmaking
Guidedevelopmentofforecastverificationmetricsandproducts

Government,academia,andprivatesectorshouldallplayarole
RecommendationB:Establishanongoinganditerativeprocess
inwhichstakeholders,socialandbehavioralscientists,and
physicalscientistscodesignS2Sforecastproducts,verification
metrics,anddecisionmakingtools

Example:WaterResourceManagement
ImprovedS2Spredictionsof
droughtandtheprobabilityof
atmosphericrivereventswill:
Supportimproved
managementofreservoirs,
includingdrought
management,floodcontrol,
andplanningfor
hydropower
Needengagementto
understandcriticaldecisions
andtoproduceforecast
informationthatfitswater
project/agencylocationand
timingneeds

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Sourcesofpredictabilitynaturalprocessesintheatmosphere,
ocean,orlandsurfacethatinfluenceclimateinpredictable
waysonS2Stimescales
BuildingblocksofS2Sprediction
RecommendationC:IdentifyandcharacterizesourcesofS2S
predictability,includingnaturalmodesofvariability(e.g.,ENSO,
MJO,QBO),slowlyvaryingprocesses(e.g.,seaice,soilmoisture,
andoceaneddies),andexternalforcing(e.g.,aerosols),and
correctlyrepresentthesesourcesofpredictability,includingtheir
interactions,inS2Sforecastsystems.

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Observationsarekeytostudying
sourcesofS2Spredictability
Realtimeobservationsarekeyfor
initializingforecastmodels
RecommendationE:Maintaincontinuity
ofcriticalobservations,andexpandthe
temporalandspatialcoverageofinsitu
andremotelysensedobservationsfor
Earthsystemvariablesthatare
beneficialforoperationalS2Sprediction
andfordiscoveringandmodelingnew
sourcesofS2Spredictability

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Observations costandlogisticswilldemandthat
scientistsprioritizethemostcriticalobservations
RecommendationF:Determineprioritiesfor
observationalsystemsandnetworksbydevelopingand
implementingOSSEs,OSEs,andothersensitivity
studiesusingS2Sforecastsystems

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Dataassimilationistheprocessofinitializingandupdating
Earthsystemmodelstobeconsistentwithobservations
CapturingtheinteractionsamongcomponentsoftheEarth
systemaprocessknownascouplingiscentralto
strengtheningS2Spredictions
Developingdataassimilationmethodsthatallowforbetter
couplingisimportanttoimprovingS2Sforecastsystems
RecommendationG:Investinresearchthatadvancesthe
developmentofstronglycoupleddataassimilationand
quantifiestheimpactofsuchadvancesonoperationalS2S
forecastsystems

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Earthsystemmodelsarecriticalto
forecasting
CriticalEarthsystemprocessesneedtobe
parameterizedinmodels represented
throughasetofequationsratherthan
beingresolved fortheforeseeablefuture
Improvingphysicalparameterizationsis
fundamentaltoincreasingS2Sforecastskill
RecommendationH:Accelerateresearchto
improveparameterizationofunresolved
(e.g.,subgrid scale)processes,bothwithin
S2Ssystemsubmodels,andholisticallyacross
modelstobetterrepresentcouplinginthe
Earthsystem.

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
OptimizethedesignofS2Sforecastsystems
RecommendationK:ExploresystematicallytheimpactofvariousS2S
forecastsystemdesignelementsonS2Sforecastskill.Thisincludes
examiningthevalueofmodeldiversity,aswellastheimpactofvarious
selectionsandcombinationsofmodelresolution,numberofensemble
perturbations,lengthoflead,averagingperiod,lengthofretrospective
forecasts,andoptionsforcoupledsubmodels.
Multimodelensemblesystems
haveshowngreatpromiseto
improveS2Sforecastskill
RecommendationL:Accelerate
effortstocarefullydesignandcreate
robustoperationalmultimodel
ensembleS2Sforecastsystems

ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Significantlyimprovethetransitionofnewideasand
toolsfromS2Sresearchcommunitytooperational
centersthatactuallyissueroutineforecaststohelp
informdecisionmaking.
RecommendationM:Provide
mechanismsforresearchand
operationalcommunitiesto
collaborate,andaidintransitioning
componentsandparameterizations
fromtheresearchcommunityinto
operationalcenters,byincreasing
researcheraccesstooperationalor
operationalmirrorsystems

Tearingdownsilos

Example:IncreasingForecastSkillto
MakeFarmingMoreEfficient
WithimprovedS2Sforecastsof:

Temperature
Precipitation
Windspeed
Relativehumidity
Soiltemperature
Projecteddatesoffirst/lastfreeze
Probabilityofdisruptiveevents flood,
drought,heatwaves,freeze

Farmerscanbetterunderstand:
Whatcropsandvarietiestoplant
Whentoapplyirrigation,nutrients,pesticides
&herbicides
Projectedcropyields tosupportdecisions
aboutfoodproductionanddistribution

ResearchStrategy3 ImprovePredictionof
ExtremeandDisruptiveEventsandofthe
ConsequencesofUnanticipatedForcingEvents

Thepredictionofeventsisoftenmoremeaningfulto
stakeholdersthanpredictingmeanconditions

ForecastingtheprobabilitiesofsucheventsonS2S
timescaleswilllikelyinvolveidentifyingwindowsintime
whenthepredictabilityofsucheventsiselevated

RecommendationD:Focuspredictabilitystudies,process
exploration,modeldevelopmentandforecastskill
advancementsonhighimpactS2Sforecastsof
opportunitythatinparticulartargetdisruptiveand
extremeevents

S2Sforecastscanalsohelppredictingtheconsequences
ofunanticipatedbutstrongforcingevents(volcanos,oil
spills,etc.)

RecommendationN:Developanationalcapabilityto
forecasttheconsequencesofunanticipatedforcingevent

Example:RespondingtoOilSpills
Oilspills
S2Sforecastsof
loopcurrentscan
helpresearchers
forecastwhere
spilledoilwillgo
Wheretodirect
resourcesfor
cleanup
Needcapability
inplacebefore
event

Quickly
assembled
model

More
deliberately
assembled
model

ResearchStrategy4 IncludeMoreComponents
oftheEarthSysteminS2SForecastModels
AmorecompletedescriptionoftheEarth
systeminS2Sforecastsystemswill
improveforecastskill
Submodelsoftheocean,seaice,land
surfaceandothercomponentsare
currentlyunderdevelopedormissingfrom
S2Sforecastsystems
S2Sstakeholdersarelookingforforecasts
ofmorevariables
RecommendationI:Pursuenextgeneration
ocean,seaice,wave,biogeochemistry,and
landsurface/hydrologicaswellas
atmosphericmodelcapabilityinfully
coupledEarthsystemmodelsusedinS2S
forecastsystems.

Insert23imagesof
seaice,ocean,forest

Example:ImprovingtheRepresentationofthe
OceanandSeaIceinS2SForecastSystems
Navy
Forecastingofocean
variables(e.g.,wind,
waveheight,ocean
currents)
Planningshippingroutes
Missionplanning

Seaiceforecasts
Anticipatingopeningof
Arcticshippinglanes

SupportingtheS2SEndeavor:
Cyberinfrastructure
Thesheervolumeofobservationaldata,
dataassimilationsteps,andmodel
outputsinvolvedintheS2Sforecasting
teststhelimitsofcurrentcyber
infrastructure.
Similarchallengesexistintheweather
andclimateforecastingfields
RecommendationO:Developanationalplanandinvestmentstrategy
forS2Spredictiontotakebetteradvantageofcurrenthardwareand
softwareandtomeetthechallengesintheevolutionofnewhardware
andsoftwareforallstagesofthepredictionprocess,includingdata
assimilation,operationofhighresolutioncoupledEarthsystem
models,andstorageandmanagementofresults

SupportingtheEndeavor:Workforce
Significantbarriersexisttotrainingandretainingtalented
workersinS2Smodeldevelopment
Alsoneedformorepeopletrainedtoworkacrossscience
userinterface
RecommendationP:Pursueacollectionofactionstoaddress
workforcedevelopmentthatremovesbarriersthatexist
acrosstheentireworkforcepipelineandinthediversityof
scientistsandengineersinvolvedinadvancingS2S
forecastingandthecomponentandcoupledsystems

NotesonImplementation
Researchagendaisboldandwilllikelyrequire
additionalresources
TableS.1providesmoreguidance
Possibleneedfornewinitiatives
Needforbothbasicandappliedresearch
Needforinternationalcollaboration

Reportpresentsimportantactionsneeded
withoutproscribingpriorityorsequence
Allowsflexibilitytochangingconditions

BringingItAllTogether
Visionandresearch
agendaarebold
S2Sforecastswillbe
aswidelyuseda
decadefromnowas
weatherforecasts
aretoday
Fulfillingthisvision
willtakesustained
effortand
investment

Acknowledgments

Sponsors
Committee
Reviewers
AcademiesStaff
Numerouscolleagues
consultedduringstudy
dels.nas.edu/basc
dels.nas.edu/osb

Questions

Upcomingevents
March29 Publicrelease
May4 Publicwebinar
dels.nas.edu/basc
dels.nas.edu/osb