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SystemPrediction:
StrategiesforSubseasonal
toSeasonalForecasts
RaymondBan(CommitteeChair)
BanandAssociates,LLC
RobertHallberg
NOAA/GeophysicalFluidDynamics
Laboratory
ScottSandgathe
UniversityofWashington
insertcoverimage
Weather,Water,andClimateForecasts
areVitaltoDecisionMaking
Businesses
Governments
Individuals
ForecastTimescales
Weather
014Days
Subseasonal
212Weeks
Seasonal
312Months
Interannual
1year Decade
Climate
Decades Centuries
Subseasonal
toSeasonal
(S2S)
2weeks12
months
WhatifLongerRangeForecastsWereMore
SkillfulandWidelyUsed?
Manydecisionsmustbe
madeinthespace
betweenweatherforecasts
andclimateprojections
ImprovingS2Sforecasts
wouldbenefitmany
sectorsofsociety
Willimproveplanningand
preparation tohelpsave
lives,protectproperty,
increaseeconomicvitality
CurrentStateofS2SForecasting
S2Sforecasts
areincreasingly
usedin
agriculture,
energy,and
waterresource
management
butmore
engagement
withusersin
othersectors
willincreaseuse
PrecipitationOutlookforAprilJune2016
IssuedMarch15,2016
CurrentStateofS2SForecasting
PredictionSkillandPredictibility (#ofDays)
Scientificknowledgegap,gapsinobservationsand
modeling,andlimitedcomputationalcapacitycurrently
limitaccuracyofS2Sforecasts
Figure4.2
Neena etal.,J.Climate,2014
Estimatesof
predictability
(i.e.upperlimit)
ofMJO
predictionskill
Rangeofpresent
dayMJOforecast
skill
Indicationof
significant
roomfor
forecastskill
improvement
WhyThisStudy?
SponsoredbyOfficeofNavalResearch,Heising
SimonsFoundation,NASA,andNASArthurL.Day
Fund
Task:
Todescribeastrategytoincreasethenation's
capacityforS2Sforecasting
Todevelopa10yearscientificresearchagendato
accelerateprogress
CommitteeRoster
RaymondJ.Ban(Chair),Banand
Associates,LLC
CeciliaBitz,Universityof
Washington
AndyBrown,UKMetOffice
EricChassignet,FloridaState
University
JohnA.Dutton,PrescientWeather,
Ltd.
RobertHallberg,NOAAGeophysical
FluidDynamicsLaboratory
Anke Kamrath,NationalCenterfor
AtmosphericResearch
DarylKleist,UniversityofMaryland,
CollegePark
PierreF.J.Lermusiaux,
MassachusettsInstituteof
Technology
HaiLin,EnvironmentCanada
LauraMyers,UniversityofAlabama
JuliePullen,StevensInstituteof
Technology
ScottSandgathe,Universityof
Washington
MarkShafer,TheUniversityof
Oklahoma
DuaneWaliser,JetPropulsion
Laboratory
Chidong Zhang,UniversityofMiami
Committeeheldfiveinpersonmeetings,spokewithdozensofresearchersandusers
Reportreviewedby12outsideexperts
TheCommitteesVision
S2Sforecastswillbeas
widelyusedadecadefrom
nowasweatherforecasts
aretoday
Fulfillingthisvisionwill
takesustainedeffortand
investment
FulfillingtheVision:ResearchStrategies
1. EngageUsers
2. IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
3. Improve
Predictionof
DisruptiveEvents
4. IncludeMore
EarthSystem
Components
ResearchStrategy1 EngageUsers
Currently,thereisamismatch
betweenavailableS2Sforecasts
andmanyendusersneeds
RecommendationA:Developa
bodyofsocialscienceresearchthat
leadstomorecomprehensiveand
systematicunderstandingofthe
useandbarrierstouseofseasonal
andsubseasonalEarthsystem
predictions.
ResearchStrategy1 EngageUsers
Moredialoguebetweenresearchers,forecastersanduserswill:
AccelerateapplicationofS2Sforecaststodecisionmaking
Guidedevelopmentofforecastverificationmetricsandproducts
Government,academia,andprivatesectorshouldallplayarole
RecommendationB:Establishanongoinganditerativeprocess
inwhichstakeholders,socialandbehavioralscientists,and
physicalscientistscodesignS2Sforecastproducts,verification
metrics,anddecisionmakingtools
Example:WaterResourceManagement
ImprovedS2Spredictionsof
droughtandtheprobabilityof
atmosphericrivereventswill:
Supportimproved
managementofreservoirs,
includingdrought
management,floodcontrol,
andplanningfor
hydropower
Needengagementto
understandcriticaldecisions
andtoproduceforecast
informationthatfitswater
project/agencylocationand
timingneeds
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Sourcesofpredictabilitynaturalprocessesintheatmosphere,
ocean,orlandsurfacethatinfluenceclimateinpredictable
waysonS2Stimescales
BuildingblocksofS2Sprediction
RecommendationC:IdentifyandcharacterizesourcesofS2S
predictability,includingnaturalmodesofvariability(e.g.,ENSO,
MJO,QBO),slowlyvaryingprocesses(e.g.,seaice,soilmoisture,
andoceaneddies),andexternalforcing(e.g.,aerosols),and
correctlyrepresentthesesourcesofpredictability,includingtheir
interactions,inS2Sforecastsystems.
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Observationsarekeytostudying
sourcesofS2Spredictability
Realtimeobservationsarekeyfor
initializingforecastmodels
RecommendationE:Maintaincontinuity
ofcriticalobservations,andexpandthe
temporalandspatialcoverageofinsitu
andremotelysensedobservationsfor
Earthsystemvariablesthatare
beneficialforoperationalS2Sprediction
andfordiscoveringandmodelingnew
sourcesofS2Spredictability
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Observations costandlogisticswilldemandthat
scientistsprioritizethemostcriticalobservations
RecommendationF:Determineprioritiesfor
observationalsystemsandnetworksbydevelopingand
implementingOSSEs,OSEs,andothersensitivity
studiesusingS2Sforecastsystems
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Dataassimilationistheprocessofinitializingandupdating
Earthsystemmodelstobeconsistentwithobservations
CapturingtheinteractionsamongcomponentsoftheEarth
systemaprocessknownascouplingiscentralto
strengtheningS2Spredictions
Developingdataassimilationmethodsthatallowforbetter
couplingisimportanttoimprovingS2Sforecastsystems
RecommendationG:Investinresearchthatadvancesthe
developmentofstronglycoupleddataassimilationand
quantifiestheimpactofsuchadvancesonoperationalS2S
forecastsystems
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Earthsystemmodelsarecriticalto
forecasting
CriticalEarthsystemprocessesneedtobe
parameterizedinmodels represented
throughasetofequationsratherthan
beingresolved fortheforeseeablefuture
Improvingphysicalparameterizationsis
fundamentaltoincreasingS2Sforecastskill
RecommendationH:Accelerateresearchto
improveparameterizationofunresolved
(e.g.,subgrid scale)processes,bothwithin
S2Ssystemsubmodels,andholisticallyacross
modelstobetterrepresentcouplinginthe
Earthsystem.
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
OptimizethedesignofS2Sforecastsystems
RecommendationK:ExploresystematicallytheimpactofvariousS2S
forecastsystemdesignelementsonS2Sforecastskill.Thisincludes
examiningthevalueofmodeldiversity,aswellastheimpactofvarious
selectionsandcombinationsofmodelresolution,numberofensemble
perturbations,lengthoflead,averagingperiod,lengthofretrospective
forecasts,andoptionsforcoupledsubmodels.
Multimodelensemblesystems
haveshowngreatpromiseto
improveS2Sforecastskill
RecommendationL:Accelerate
effortstocarefullydesignandcreate
robustoperationalmultimodel
ensembleS2Sforecastsystems
ResearchStrategy2 IncreaseS2S
ForecastSkill
Significantlyimprovethetransitionofnewideasand
toolsfromS2Sresearchcommunitytooperational
centersthatactuallyissueroutineforecaststohelp
informdecisionmaking.
RecommendationM:Provide
mechanismsforresearchand
operationalcommunitiesto
collaborate,andaidintransitioning
componentsandparameterizations
fromtheresearchcommunityinto
operationalcenters,byincreasing
researcheraccesstooperationalor
operationalmirrorsystems
Tearingdownsilos
Example:IncreasingForecastSkillto
MakeFarmingMoreEfficient
WithimprovedS2Sforecastsof:
Temperature
Precipitation
Windspeed
Relativehumidity
Soiltemperature
Projecteddatesoffirst/lastfreeze
Probabilityofdisruptiveevents flood,
drought,heatwaves,freeze
Farmerscanbetterunderstand:
Whatcropsandvarietiestoplant
Whentoapplyirrigation,nutrients,pesticides
&herbicides
Projectedcropyields tosupportdecisions
aboutfoodproductionanddistribution
ResearchStrategy3 ImprovePredictionof
ExtremeandDisruptiveEventsandofthe
ConsequencesofUnanticipatedForcingEvents
Thepredictionofeventsisoftenmoremeaningfulto
stakeholdersthanpredictingmeanconditions
ForecastingtheprobabilitiesofsucheventsonS2S
timescaleswilllikelyinvolveidentifyingwindowsintime
whenthepredictabilityofsucheventsiselevated
RecommendationD:Focuspredictabilitystudies,process
exploration,modeldevelopmentandforecastskill
advancementsonhighimpactS2Sforecastsof
opportunitythatinparticulartargetdisruptiveand
extremeevents
S2Sforecastscanalsohelppredictingtheconsequences
ofunanticipatedbutstrongforcingevents(volcanos,oil
spills,etc.)
RecommendationN:Developanationalcapabilityto
forecasttheconsequencesofunanticipatedforcingevent
Example:RespondingtoOilSpills
Oilspills
S2Sforecastsof
loopcurrentscan
helpresearchers
forecastwhere
spilledoilwillgo
Wheretodirect
resourcesfor
cleanup
Needcapability
inplacebefore
event
Quickly
assembled
model
More
deliberately
assembled
model
ResearchStrategy4 IncludeMoreComponents
oftheEarthSysteminS2SForecastModels
AmorecompletedescriptionoftheEarth
systeminS2Sforecastsystemswill
improveforecastskill
Submodelsoftheocean,seaice,land
surfaceandothercomponentsare
currentlyunderdevelopedormissingfrom
S2Sforecastsystems
S2Sstakeholdersarelookingforforecasts
ofmorevariables
RecommendationI:Pursuenextgeneration
ocean,seaice,wave,biogeochemistry,and
landsurface/hydrologicaswellas
atmosphericmodelcapabilityinfully
coupledEarthsystemmodelsusedinS2S
forecastsystems.
Insert23imagesof
seaice,ocean,forest
Example:ImprovingtheRepresentationofthe
OceanandSeaIceinS2SForecastSystems
Navy
Forecastingofocean
variables(e.g.,wind,
waveheight,ocean
currents)
Planningshippingroutes
Missionplanning
Seaiceforecasts
Anticipatingopeningof
Arcticshippinglanes
SupportingtheS2SEndeavor:
Cyberinfrastructure
Thesheervolumeofobservationaldata,
dataassimilationsteps,andmodel
outputsinvolvedintheS2Sforecasting
teststhelimitsofcurrentcyber
infrastructure.
Similarchallengesexistintheweather
andclimateforecastingfields
RecommendationO:Developanationalplanandinvestmentstrategy
forS2Spredictiontotakebetteradvantageofcurrenthardwareand
softwareandtomeetthechallengesintheevolutionofnewhardware
andsoftwareforallstagesofthepredictionprocess,includingdata
assimilation,operationofhighresolutioncoupledEarthsystem
models,andstorageandmanagementofresults
SupportingtheEndeavor:Workforce
Significantbarriersexisttotrainingandretainingtalented
workersinS2Smodeldevelopment
Alsoneedformorepeopletrainedtoworkacrossscience
userinterface
RecommendationP:Pursueacollectionofactionstoaddress
workforcedevelopmentthatremovesbarriersthatexist
acrosstheentireworkforcepipelineandinthediversityof
scientistsandengineersinvolvedinadvancingS2S
forecastingandthecomponentandcoupledsystems
NotesonImplementation
Researchagendaisboldandwilllikelyrequire
additionalresources
TableS.1providesmoreguidance
Possibleneedfornewinitiatives
Needforbothbasicandappliedresearch
Needforinternationalcollaboration
Reportpresentsimportantactionsneeded
withoutproscribingpriorityorsequence
Allowsflexibilitytochangingconditions
BringingItAllTogether
Visionandresearch
agendaarebold
S2Sforecastswillbe
aswidelyuseda
decadefromnowas
weatherforecasts
aretoday
Fulfillingthisvision
willtakesustained
effortand
investment
Acknowledgments
Sponsors
Committee
Reviewers
AcademiesStaff
Numerouscolleagues
consultedduringstudy
dels.nas.edu/basc
dels.nas.edu/osb
Questions
Upcomingevents
March29 Publicrelease
May4 Publicwebinar
dels.nas.edu/basc
dels.nas.edu/osb