TO: KEVIN ARTL

FROM: GREG STRIMPLE

RE: ILLINOIS STATEWIDE POLLING
DATE: 04.04.16

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GS Strategy Group conducted a statewide survey of 600 likely general election voters in
Illinois March 30-31, 2016. The survey yielded a margin of error of +/- 4.0% at the 95%
confidence level. The survey tested a number of issues, including the current state of the U.S.
Senate race in Illinois along with some current event issues that are important to both Illinois
and the United States. Below are some key findings from the survey.
THE UNITED STATES SENATE RACE
Today, the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois between Mark Kirk and Tammy Duckworth remains
incredibly tight (Duckworth 42.7%, Kirk 39.6%), and almost 18% of voters are undecided.
Independent voters are nearly evenly split in their choice between Duckworth and Kirk.
Kirks numbers are strengthened by voters belief that he is an independent voice for Illinois
in Washington, DC. By 2:1, respondents agreed with the statement Mark Kirk is a thoughtful,
independent leader. This positive definition of Kirk as a thoughtful, independent crosses the
political spectrum, with even a plurality of Democrats agreeing (33%) and by a 3:1 margin,
independents agree (48% to 16%).

U.S. SUPREME COURT NOMINATION

Over 60% of voters say the U.S. Senate should hold hearings and a confirmation vote for
President Obamas nominee to the Supreme Court. Illinois voters know about Mark Kirks
independent position on the issue, bolstering his moderate image.

NATIONAL SECURITY
By large majorities, Illinois voters believe there is a likely chance America will be the target
of another terrorist attack within the next year, with more than half of respondents saying it
is extremely (27.6%) or very (28.1%) likely. Additionally, nearly 60% agree with Mark Kirks
position that we should not allow Syrian refugees into the U.S. until it can be done safely.
National security issues are a major vulnerability for Tammy Duckworths candidacy.

ILLINOIS MARCH 2016 | 2

When voters learn about Kirks and Duckworths positions on the issues, Kirks record
wins. From the Syrian refugee crisis to her economic record to her failures at the VA,
Duckworth is vulnerable on her extreme record.

Bottom Line: While the ballot test between Mark Kirk and Tammy Duckworth remains
incredibly tight, the issues voters are focused on and most passionate about provide an
edge to the Kirk campaign. Duckworth's positions on key national security issues, such as
her support for allowing 200,000 Syrian refugees into the US, put her at odds with the great
majority of Illinois voters. Further exacerbating the challenges to her candidacy are her
clear partisan record and failings at the VA.

ILLINOIS MARCH 2016 | 3