T_RankI nfo

T_ReportAbstrac t

&
&
&

T_ReportDate

20100826

T_Pre fer re dLis t

000099

10

T_StockAdj ustInfo

12
T_Graph

20%

8%

-5%
1999 4 2009 13
12.5%
-18%
10
-30%

08-09 12-09 03-10 05-10 08-10

300

10

ST
02168765661 pengqian@essence.com.cn

S1450209090279

T_Analyst

Email

subl@essence.com.cn
S1450110040336
01066581628

T_RelatedReport

2009-06-20

2009-02-26

2010-06-08

1.
1.1. 3

1.2.

1.3.
2007 2009 8

2009
1000

2.
2.1.
2.1.1.

ICAO
A-D


CAAC
2.1.2.

2.2.

2.2.1.
ABCDE
FG A G

2.2.2.
1996 E

G
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CAAC

A B C D
E G 400

2.3.
2.3.1.
3

CAAC

2.3.2.
2003

2010

2.3.3.
2007
2008 2009

3.
3.1.
10 1999
4 2009 13 12.5%
10
2015-2020

10

CAAC

3.2.
34 23 23
1 2009 997

0.33%

2006 40% 14%

16%
FAA


17500 2.5
10 1.5
70
1% GDP 128.4
1994 20 90
20
21

SATS

4 2003
SATS
IFR
VFRDGPS
(ILS)
21 NextGen

1905 3

2001 232
80%2006 6070
700 2004 4700 8 1970
2001 100 1110
34 15
257 53
15 2004 170
45000
1986

2 26 9000
5000 72%
17%
45%35%39%
69%
90% 10%

GDP

8 GDP

4.

2020 1 1.2
1

4.1.

60%
80%

4.1.1.
2/3

18

50%

10

2010 3 Bridas Energy Holdings

4.1.2.
15%
2015 26.1 2020
52.5
12 2008-2015

2003
15%

10

10

110

2015 15 17

1 8:

32

28

24
20
16
12
8
4

11

2 02 0

2 0 19

2 0 18

20 1 7

2 01 6

20 1 5

2 01 4

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24

20

16
12
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2003
2003-2009 27.7%
10

20%
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30%2016 20%

12

2 1:

4
3
2
1

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2 01 9

20 1 8

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7 2 2 2
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2 /
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13.35%

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3 1 5 1
2020 6
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2 2:

4
3
2
1

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2020 1 1.2
1

ST ST

10

4.3.
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10
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4.5.4.
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T_KeyRP

000099
002023
600893
600038
600316
600523
002253
600990
002111
000738
002297

21

ST

A
A
A
B
A
A
A
B
A
A
B

ROE(%)
()
(X)
2009 2010E2011E 2009 2010E2011E 2009 2010E 2011E
0.22 0.27 0.33 40.86 33.30 27.24 7.49% 8.81% 9.67%
0.29 0.26 0.36 46.45 51.81 37.42 10.15% 8.75%11.20%
0.28 0.43 0.60 101.39 66.02 47.32 6.03% 7.61% 8.72%
0.24 0.28 0.34 117.25 100.50 82.76 6.09% 7.10% 7.92%
0.56 0.60 0.64 91.43 85.33 80.00 10.58%11.20%11.60%
0.36 0.78 0.96 50.00 23.08 18.75 7.70% 8.90% 9.10%
0.54 0.85 1.32 68.22 43.34 27.91 8.87% 9.30% 10.1%
0.53 0.45 0.55 79.30 93.40 76.42 9.01% 8.06% 8.91%
0.35 0.51 0.67 53.46 36.69 27.93 12.37%12.14%12.20%
0.15 0.24 0.28 77.60 48.50 41.57 10.95%11.02%11.30%
0.24 0.21 0.32 102.08 116.67 76.56 6.61% 7.12% 7.93%

2010 8 26

8.99
13.47
28.39
28.14
51.20
18.00
36.84
42.03
18.71
11.64
24.5

10.00
15.00
34.00
32.00
55.00
27.00
52.00
43.00
22.00
13.00
30.00

T_AuthorI nfo

,,,.2007 7 .
-MIT MBA,2010 Ameco,
10

6 300 10%
6 30010%10%
6 300 10%

A 6 300
B 6 300

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