GANGADHAR MEHER (AUTO) COLLEGE

SAMBALPUR

A
PROJECT WORK
ON
TREND OF ANNUAL SALE OF KRISHNA RICE
MILL IN SAMBALPUR FROM
THE DATA OF PAST 15 YEARS

2015-16
Under the Guidance Of:

Submitted By:

Mr. R. Jena, Retd. HOD

Jitendra Kumar Panda

Dept. of Statistics
G.M. (Auto) College,
BS13STA078
Sambalpur

Roll No BS 13 078
Exam Roll No

Signature of the Student.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I convey my deep sense of gratitude and

thanks to Retired HOD R. Jena of Statistics, G.M
(Auto)

college,

Sambalpur

for

his

guidance,

suggestion and encouragement through the course

of project work. I express my thanks to all of them
who helped in every step while doing this project
work.

Date :
Place : Sambalpur

Jitendra Kumar Panda

+3 6th Sem. Science
Roll No BS13STA078

CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that Mr. Jitendra Kumar Panda
student

of

Sambalpur,

Gangadhar

Meher

bearing the Roll

(Auto)

College,

No. BS13STA078

studying in the department of Statistics has

completed the project on "Krishna Rice Mill" of
Sambalpur.

Date :
Place :

R. Jena
Retired HOD
Dept. of Statistics
G.M. (Auto) College
Sambalpur.

UNDERTAKING
I Jitendra Kumar Panda the writer of this
project on "Krishna Rice Mill" hereby declare that
this is an independent work of mine and carried out
towards partial fulfillment of the requirement for
the award of bachelor degree in statistics. This
work has not been submitted to other institution
for the award of any degree.

Date :
Place :

Jitendra Kumar Panda

+3 6th Sem. Science
Roll No BS13STA078

CONTENTS
Introduction
Procedure
Collected Data
Statistical Analysis
Graphical Representation
Conclusion

INTRODUCTION
The main aim of this project work is to find out the trend
of annual production of a trading organization "KRISHNA
RICE MILL" of Sambalpur from the data of past fifteen
years.
Here the term trend means the general tendency of the
data to increase or decrease during a long period of time.
This is true of most of time series of business and
economics. Trend is the general, smooth, long term and
average tendency.
There are four methods for finding the trend of a time
series given bellow.
1. Graphical method
2. Method of semi average
3. Principle of least square
4. Method of moving average.

PROCEDURE
In moving average method first the period of moving
average is decided. The period of moving average is
equal to one cycle.
Case 1 : (The period of moving average is odd)
If the period of moving average is odd i.e 3 or 4 or 7......,
then 3 yearly, 5 yearly,7 yearly......, moving totals are
calculated and placed in the middle of corresponding time
period , then moving averages are calculated by dividing
the totals by the period moving average. These averages
are known as trend values of the corresponding year.
Case.2 (The period of moving average is even)
If the period of moving average is even i.e2 or 4 or
6........,then 2 yearly, 4yearly, 6 yearly ,....., moving totals
are

calculated

and

placed

on

the

middle

of

the

corresponding time period, then the moving averages are

calculated by dividing the totals by the period of moving
average. But these averages do not correspond to any

year. Hence again 2 yearly moving averages of the

averages are calculated known as centre values. Those
averages are known as trend value of the corresponding
year.

COLLECTED DATA
The annual production in lakhs of tonnes of Krishna Rice Mill.

YEAR

ANNUAL SALES(RS IN
THOUSNADS)

1999

50

2000

80

2001

65

2002

55

2003

60

2004

62

2005

92

2006

75

2007

85

2008

90

2009

90

2010

100

2011

100

2012

90

2013

100

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
[COMPUTATION OF 3-YEARLY MOVING AVERAGE]
SL NO

YEAR

ANNUAL
PRODUCTION
RS IN LAKHS

1999

50.00

2000

3-YEARLY MOVING
TOTALS

3-YEARLY MOVING
AVERAGES

80.00

195.00

65.00

2001

65.00

200.00

66.66

2002

55.00

180.00

60.00

2003

60.00

177.00

59.00

2004

62.00

214.00

71.33

2005

92.00

229.00

76.33

2006

75.00

252.00

84.00

2007

85.00

250.00

83.33

10

2008

90.00

265.00

88.33

11

2009

90.00

280.00

93.33

12

2010

100.00

290.00

96.66

13

2011

100.00

290.00

96.66

14

2012

90.00

290.0

96.66

15

2013

100.00

CONCLUSION

From the table the trend values for the year 2000,
2001, 2003, 2012 are 50, 80, 65, 55, 60,
62, 92, 75, 85, 90, 90, 100, 100, 90 and 100
respectively.

We also conclude from the graph that the

organization has an increasing trend in its annual
sales.

Submitted By :
Jitendra Kumar
Panda
Roll No BS13078
+3 Final Year
Science.