Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(session 1,2)
Outline
; The Planning Process
; The Nature of Aggregate Planning
; Aggregate Planning Strategies
; Capacity Options
; Demand Options
; Mixing Options to Develop a Plan
Outline Continued
; Aggregate Planning in Services
; Restaurants
; Hospitals
; National Chains of Small Service
Firms
; Miscellaneous Services
; Airline Industry
; Yield Management
3
Aggregate Planning
Determine the quantity and timing of
production for the immediate future
; Objective is to minimize cost over the
planning period by adjusting
; Production rates
; Labor levels
; Inventory levels
; Overtime work
; Subcontracting rates
; Other controllable variables
4
Aggregate Planning
Required for aggregate planning
; A logical overall unit for measuring sales
and output
; A forecast of demand for an intermediate
planning period in these aggregate terms
; A method for determining costs
; A model that combines forecasts and
costs so that scheduling decisions can
be made for the planning period
5
Operations
managers
Intermediate-range plans
(3 to 18 months)
Sales planning
Production planning and budgeting
Setting employment, inventory,
subcontracting levels
Analyzing operating plans
Short-range plans
(up to 3 months)
Operations
managers,
supervisors,
foremen
Responsibility
Job assignments
Ordering
Job scheduling
Dispatching
Overtime
Part-time help
Planning tasks and horizon
Aggregate Planning
Jan
150,000
Apr
100,000
Jul
180,000
Quarter 1
Feb
120,000
Quarter 2
May
130,000
Quarter 3
Aug
150,000
Mar
110,000
Jun
150,000
Sep
140,000
7
Aggregate Planning
Aggregate planning is a part of larger
production planning system;
therefore understanding the
interfaces between plan and several
internal and external factors is
essential for effective aggregate
planning.
Aggregate Planning
Aggregate Planning
(Required Inputs to the Production
Planning System)
Competitors
behavior
External
capacity
Current
physical
capacity
Raw material
availability
Planning
for
production
Current
workforce
Inventory
levels
Market
demand
External
to firm
Economic
conditions
Activities
required
for prod.
Internal
to firm
10
Capacity Options
1. Changing inventory levels
; Increase inventory in low demand
periods to meet high demand in
the future
; Increases costs associated with
storage, insurance, handling,
obsolescence, and capital
investment 15% to 40%
; Shortages can mean lost sales
due to long lead times and poor
customer service
12
Capacity Options
2. Varying workforce size by hiring or
layoffs
; Match production rate to demand
; Training and separation costs for
hiring and laying off workers
; New workers may have lower
productivity
; Laying off workers may lower morale
and productivity
13
Capacity Options
3. Varying production rate through
overtime or idle time
; Allows constant workforce
; May be difficult to meet large
increases in demand
; Overtime can be costly and may
drive down productivity
; Absorbing idle time may be
difficult
14
Capacity Options
4. Subcontracting
; Temporary measure during
periods of peak demand
; May be costly
; Assuring quality and timely
delivery may be difficult
; Exposes your customers to a
possible competitor
15
Capacity Options
5. Using part-time workers
; Useful for filling unskilled or low
skilled positions, especially in
services
16
Demand Options
6. Influencing demand
; Use advertising or promotion
to increase demand in low
periods
; Attempt to shift
demand to slow
periods
; May not be
sufficient to
balance demand
and capacity
17
Demand Options
7. Back ordering during highdemand periods
; Requires customers to wait for an
order without loss of goodwill or
the order
; Most effective when there are few
if any substitutes for the product
or service
; Often results in lost sales
18
Demand Options
8. Counter seasonal product and
service mixing
; Develop a product mix of
counterseasonal items
; May lead to products or services
outside the companys areas of
expertise
19
20
Mixing Options to
Develop an aggregate Plan
; Chase strategy
; Match output rates to demand
forecast for each period
; Vary workforce levels or vary
production rate
; Favored by many service
organizations
21
Mixing Options to
Develop a Plan
; Level strategy
; Daily production is uniform
; Use inventory or idle time as buffer
; Stable production leads to better
quality and productivity
Graphical Methods
; Popular techniques
; Easy to understand and use
; Trial-and-error approaches that do
not guarantee an optimal solution
; Require only limited computations
23
Graphical Methods
1. Determine the demand for each period
2. Determine the capacity for regular time,
overtime, and subcontracting each period
3. Find labor costs, hiring and layoff costs,
and inventory holding costs
4. Consider company policy on workers and
stock levels
5. Develop alternative plans and examine
their total costs
24
Example 1
ABC a manufacturer of roofing tiles has
developed monthly Forecasts for roofing tiles
and presented the period January-June in the
table 1.
To represent the projected demand, ABC also
draws a graph (figure 1) that charts the daily
demand each month. The dotted line across the
chart represents the production rate required to
meet average demand which is computed by
dividing the total expected demand by number of
production days.
25
Production
Days
Month
Expected Demand
Jan
900
22
41
Feb
700
18
39
Mar
800
21
38
Apr
1,200
21
57
May
1,500
22
68
June
1,100
20
55
6,200
124
26
6,200
= 50 units per day
124
Forecast demand
70
60
50
40
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
22
18
21
21
22
20
Figure 1
= Month
= Number of
working days
27
Possible Strategy 1
Constant Workforce
Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost
$ 7 per hour
(above 8 hours per day)
1.6 hours per unit
$300 per unit
$600 per unit
Table 2
28
Possible Strategy 1
Cost Information
Production at
Month carry
50 Units
Inventory
cost per Day
Subcontracting
cost
per unit
Jan
1,100
1,050
Apr
1,050
Labor-hours to produce a unit
May
1,100
Monthly
Demand Inventory
Ending
Forecast $ 5Change
per unit per Inventory
month
900
700
800
1,200
1,500
$10 +200
per unit
200
$ 5 per
hour ($40 per
day)
+200
400
+250
650
$ 7 per
hour
(above 8 hours per day)
-150
500
1.6 hours per unit
-400
-100
100
0
1,850
Pl a 1
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers
29
Possible Strategy 1
Monthly
Costs
Calculations
Cost Information
Production at
Demand
Inventory
Ending
Month carry
50
Units
Forecast
Inventory
$ 5Change
perunits
unit per
month
Inventory
cost per Day $9,250
Inventory
carrying
(= 1,850
carried
x $5
unit)
$10
per unit
Subcontracting
cost
per unit
Jan
1,100
900 per
+200
200
Regular-time
labor
49,600
x $40per
per
$ 5 workers
per
hour ($40
day)
Feb pay rate
900
700 (= 10
+200
400
Average
124 days) 650
Mar
1,050
800 day x+250
Overtime pay rate
Other
Apr costs (overtime,
1,050
1,200
hiring,
layoffs,
Labor
-hours
to produce a unit
May
1,100
1,500
0
subcontracting)
Cost of increasing daily production rate
June
1,000
1,100
Total
cost
$58,850
(hiring
and training)
Cost of decreasing daily production rate
(layoffs)
$ 7 per hour
(above 8 hours per day)
-150
500
1.6 hours per unit
-400
-100
100
0
1,850
Possible Strategy 1
Cumulative demand units
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Reduction
of inventory
6,200 units
Cumulative level
production using
average monthly
forecast
requirements
3,000
2,000
Cumulative forecast
requirements
1,000
Excess inventory
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Figure 2
31
Possible Strategy 2
Subcontracting
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Expected Demand
900
700
800
1,200
1,500
1,100
6,200
Production
Days
22
18
21
21
22
20
124
Possible Strategy 2
Forecast demand
70
Level production
using lowest
monthly forecast
demand
60
50
40
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
22
18
21
21
22
20
= Month
= Number of
working days
33
Possible Strategy 2
Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost
$ 7 per hour
(above 8 hours per day)
1.6 hours per unit
$300 per unit
$600 per unit
34
Possible Strategy 2
Cost Information
Inventory carry cost
In-house
production
Subcontracting
cost
per unit
Average pay rate
Overtime pay rate
= 38$10units
per unitper day
x $124
5 perdays
hour ($40 per day)
= 4,712
$ 7 perunits
hour
Labor-hours
to produce a unit
Subcontract
units
=
Cost of increasing daily production rate
$300 per
unit
=
1,488
units
(hiring and training)
Cost of decreasing daily production rate
(layoffs)
35
Possible Strategy 2
Cost Information
Inventory carry cost
In-house
production
Subcontracting
cost
per unit
Average pay rate
Overtime pay rate
= 38$10units
per unitper day
x $124
5 perdays
hour ($40 per day)
= 4,712
$ 7 perunits
hour
Costs-hours
Labor
to produce a unit
Subcontract
units
=
Regular-time
labor
$37,696
(=
7.6 workers
Cost
of increasing
daily production
rate
$300
per
unit x $40 per
=
1,488
units
(hiring and training)
day x 124 days)
Cost
of decreasing daily production
unitx $10 per
Subcontracting
14,880rate (= $600
1,488per
units
(layoffs)
unit)
Table 13.3
Total cost
$52,576
36
Possible Strategy 3
Hiring and firing
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
Expected Demand
900
700
800
1,200
1,500
1,100
6,200
Production
Days
22
18
21
21
22
20
124
Possible Strategy 3
Forecast demand and
monthly production
70
60
50
40
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
22
18
21
21
22
20
= Month
= Number of
working days
38
Possible Strategy 3
Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost
$ 7 per hour
(above 8 hours per day)
1.6 hours per unit
$300 per unit
$600 per unit
39
Possible Strategy 3
Basic
Production
Cost
Inventory carrying
cost (demand x
Daily
1.6 hrs/unit x
Prod
Forecast
Subcontracting
cost
per
unit
$5/hr)
Rate
Month
(units)
Cost Information
Extra Cost of
Extra Cost of
$ 5 perDecreasing
unit per month
Increasing
Production
Production
$10
per
unitcost) Total Cost
(layoff
(hiring cost)
Jan
900 rate 41
Average
pay
$ 7,200
Feb
700
Overtime
pay rate39
5,600
Mar -hours
800 to produce
38
6,400
Labor
a unit
$ 5 per hour
($40 per$ day
7,200)
$1,200
$ 7 per hour
6,800
(= 2 x $600)
(above 8 hours per day)
$600
7,000
1.6 hours
per
unit
(= 1 x
$600)
Apr of increasing
1,200
57daily production
9,600
(=
19
x $300)
(hiring and training)
$3,300
May of decreasing
1,500
68daily production
12,000
Cost
rate
$600 per unit
(= 11 x $300)
(layoffs)
June
1,100
Table 13.3
55
8,800
$49,600
15,300
15,300
$7,800
(= 13 x $600)
16,600
$9,000
$9,600
$68,200
40
Plan 1
Plan 2
Inventory carrying
$ 9,250
Regular labor
49,600
37,696
49,600
Overtime labor
Hiring
9,000
Layoffs
9,600
Subcontracting
14,880
$58,850
$52,576
$68,200
Total cost
Plan 3
$
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
4500
5500
7000
10000
8000
6000
Materials
Holding costs
Marginal cost of stockout
Hiring and training cost
Layoff costs
Labor hours required
Straight time labor cost
Beginning inventory
Productive hours/worker/day
Paid straight hrs/day
$5/unit
$1/unit per mo.
$1.25/unit per mo.
$200/worker
$250/worker
.15 hrs/unit
$8/hour
250 units
7.25
8
42
Jan
Feb
Mar
4500
5500
7000
Productive hours/worker/day
6000
Paid straight hrs/day
22x8hrsx$8=$140
Jan
8
Days/mo
Hrs/worker/mo
Units/worker
$/worker
22
159.5
1063.33
$1,408
Feb
19
137.75
918.33
1,216
Apr
May
7.25x2
2
10000
7.25 8000
Mar
21
152.25
1015
1,344
7.25/0.15=48.33 &
48.33x22=1063.33
Apr
21
152.25
1015
1,344
May
22
159.5
1063.33
1,408
Jun
20
145
966.67
1,280
43
Demand
Beg. inv.
Net req.
Req. workers
Hired
Fired
W orkforce
Ending inventory
Jan
22
1 59.5
1,063.33
$1,408
Jan
4 ,5 0 0
2 50
4 ,2 5 0
3 .9 97
3
4
0
Lets
Letsassume
assumeour
ourcurrent
currentworkforce
workforceis
is77
workers.
workers.
Below
Beloware
arethe
thecomplete
completecalculations
calculationsfor
forthe
theremaining
remaining
months
monthsin
inthe
thesix
sixmonth
monthplanning
planninghorizon
horizon
Days/mo
Hrs/worker/mo
Units/worker
$/worker
Demand
Beg. inv.
Net req.
Req. workers
Hired
Fired
Workforce
Ending inventory
Jan
22
159.5
1,063
$1,408
Feb
19
137.75
918
1,216
Mar
21
152.25
1,015
1,344
Apr
21
152.25
1,015
1,344
May
22
159.5
1,063
1,408
Jun
20
145
967
1,280
Jan
4,500
250
4,250
3.997
Feb
5,500
Mar
7,000
Apr
10,000
May
8,000
Jun
6,000
5,500
5.989
2
7,000
6.897
1
10,000
9.852
3
8,000
7.524
6,000
6.207
2
8
0
1
7
0
3
4
0
6
0
7
0
10
0
45
Material
Labor
Hiring cost
Firing cost
Jan
4,500
250
4,250
3.997
3
4
0
Feb
5,500
Mar
7,000
Apr
10,000
May
8,000
Jun
6,000
5,500
5.989
2
7,000
6.897
1
10,000
9.852
3
8,000
7.524
6,000
6.207
2
8
0
1
7
0
6
0
7
0
10
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
$21,250.00 $27,500.00 $35,000.00 $50,000.00 $40,000.00 $30,000.00
5,627.59 7,282.76 9,268.97 13,241.38 10,593.10 7,944.83
400.00
200.00
600.00
750.00
500.00
250.00
Costs
203,750.00
53,958.62
1,200.00
1,500.00
$260,408.62
46
Demand
This
Thistime
timewe
wewill
willseek
seekto
touse
use
Beg. inv.
aaworkforce
workforcelevel
levelof
of66workers
workers
Net req.
Workers
Production
Ending inventory
Surplus
Shortage
Jan
4,500
250
4,250
6
6,380
2,130
2,130
47
Below
Beloware
arethe
thecomplete
completecalculations
calculationsfor
forthe
theremaining
remaining
months
monthsin
inthe
thesix
sixmonth
monthplanning
planninghorizon
horizon
Demand
Beg. inv.
Net req.
Workers
Production
Ending inventory
Surplus
Shortage
Jan
4,500
250
4,250
6
6,380
2,130
2,130
Feb
5,500
2,130
3,370
6
5,510
2,140
2,140
Mar
7,000
2,140
4,860
6
6,090
1,230
1,230
Apr
10,000
1,230
8,770
6
6,090
-2,680
May
8,000
-2,680
10,680
6
6,380
-1,300
Jun
6,000
-1,300
7,300
6
5,800
-1,500
2,680
1,300
1,500
Note,
Note, ifif we
we recalculate
recalculate this
this sheet
sheet with
with 77 workers
workers
we
we would
would have
have aa surplus
surplus
48
Below
Below are
are the
the complete
complete calculations
calculations for
for the
the
remaining
remaining months
months in
in the
the six
six month
month planning
planning
horizon
horizon with
with the
the other
other costs
costs included
included
Jan
4,500
250
4,250
6
6,380
2,130
2,130
Jan
$8,448
31,900
2,130
Feb
5,500
2,130
3,370
6
5,510
2,140
2,140
Feb
$7,296
27,550
2,140
Mar
7,000
10
4,860
6
6,090
1,230
1,230
Mar
$8,064
30,450
1,230
Apr
10,000
-910
8,770
6
6,090
-2,680
May
8,000
-3,910
10,680
6
6,380
-1,300
Jun
6,000
-1,620
7,300
6
5,800
-1,500
2,680
1,300
1,500
Apr
$8,064
30,450
May
$8,448
31,900
Jun
$7,680
29,000
3,350
1,625
1,875
Note,
Note,total
total
costs
costsunder
under
this
thisstrategy
strategy
are
areless
lessthan
than
Chase
Chaseat
at
$260.408.62
$260.408.62
$48,000.00
181,250.00
5,500.00
6,850.00
Labor
Material
Storage
Stockout
$241,600.00
49
Mathematical Approaches
; Useful for generating strategies
; Transportation Method of Linear
Programming
; Produces an optimal plan
; Other Models
; Linear Decision Rule
; Simulation
50
Transportation Method
Demand
Capacity:
Regular
Overtime
Subcontracting
Beginning inventory
Regular time
Overtime
Subcontracting
Carrying
Mar
800
Sales Period
Apr
May
1,000
750
700
700
50
50
150
150
100 tires
700
50
130
Costs
$40 per tire
$50 per tire
$70 per tire
$ 2 per tire per month
51
Transportation Example
Important points
1. Carrying costs are $2/tire/month. If
goods are made in one period and held
over to the next, holding costs are
incurred
2. Supply must equal demand, so a
dummy
column
called
unused
capacity is added
3. Because back ordering is not viable in
this example, cells that might be used to
satisfy earlier demand are not available
52
Transportation Example
Important points
4. Quantities in each column designate the
levels of inventory needed to meet
demand requirements
5. In general, production should be
allocated to the lowest cost cell
available without exceeding unused
capacity in the row or demand in the
column
53
Transportation Example
54
Management Coefficients
Model
; Builds a model based on managers
experience and performance
; A regression model is constructed
to define the relationships between
decision variables
; Objective is to remove
inconsistencies in decision making
55
Other Models
Linear Decision Rule
; Minimizes costs using quadratic cost curves
; Operates over a particular time period
Simulation
; Uses a search procedure to try different
combinations of variables
; Develops feasible but not necessarily optimal
solutions
56
Summary of Aggregate
Planning Methods
Techniques
Graphical
methods
Solution
Approaches
Trial and
error
Transportation
Optimization
method of linear
programming
Important Aspects
Simple to understand and
easy to use. Many
solutions; one chosen
may not be optimal.
LP software available;
permits sensitivity
analysis and new
constraints; linear
functions may not be
realistic.
57
Summary of Aggregate
Planning Methods
Techniques
Solution
Approaches
Important Aspects
Management
coefficients
model
Heuristic
Simulation
Change
parameters
58
; Hospitals
; Responding to patient demand
60
; Miscellaneous Services
; Plan human resource
requirements
; Manage demand
61
Yield Management
Allocating resources to customers at
prices that will maximize yield or
revenue
1. Service or product can be sold in
advance of consumption
2. Demand fluctuates
3. Capacity is relatively fixed
4. Demand can be segmented
5. Variable costs are low and fixed costs
are high
63
Room sales
100
Passed-up
contribution
50
Total
$ contribution
= (Price) x (50
rooms)
= ($150 - $15)
x (50)
= $6,750
$15
Variable cost
of room
Money left
on the table
$150
Price charged
for room
Price
64
Room sales
100
Total $ contribution =
(1st price) x 30 rooms + (2nd price) x 30 rooms =
($100 - $15) x 30 + ($200 - $15) x 30 =
$2,550 + $5,550 = $8,100
60
30
$15
Variable cost
of room
$100
Price 1
for room
$200
Price 2
for room
Price
65
Predictable
Unpredictable
Duration of use
Price
Tend to be fixed
Tend to be variable
Quadrant 1:
Quadrant 2:
Movies
Stadiums/arenas
Convention centers
Hotel meeting space
Hotels
Airlines
Rental cars
Cruise lines
Quadrant 3:
Quadrant 4:
Restaurants
Golf courses
Internet service
providers
Continuing care
hospitals
66