Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 12401246

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Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Technical note

Energy and nanotechnologies: Priority areas for Australia's future

Greg Tegart
Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, City Flinders Campus, PO Box 14428, Melbourne, 8001, Australia

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 24 November 2008
Received in revised form 4 June 2009
Accepted 10 June 2009
Keywords:
Nanotechnologies
Energy futures
Energy conversion
Energy storage
Energy use

a b s t r a c t
This paper explores the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new
and improved approaches to energy conversion, storage and distribution in Australia in the short
term (less than 5 years), medium term (515 years) and long term (greater than 15 years). In 2007
the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) examined the potential
for the application of nanotechnologies to future energy systems in Australia. Four workshops
were held in major cities around Australia bringing ATSE Fellows and experts together for
brainstorming sessions and a questionnaire was circulated more widely. These provided inputs on
future energy needs in Australia and the critical areas to be considered in research and
commercialisation of nanotechnologies in energy systems. Using a matrix approach a number of
opportunities were identied as short term energy conservation, environmental management,
catalysts for combustion, photovoltaic cells; medium term catalysts for conversion of biomass,
gas and coal, fuel cells, advanced photovoltaics, capture and storage of carbon dioxide; and long
term hydrogen production, storage and use. These applications are discussed in the Australian
context. The implications for government policy on support of the ndings are discussed.
2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The critical role of energy in economic and social activity of countries has prompted numerous studies to examine global and
regional energy futures against the background of increasing world population and continued economic growth, particularly in
developing countries such as China and India [16]. Estimates suggest that the world will need 50% more energy in 2020 than
today with the Asia-Pacic region being the world's largest consumer. Three major concerns have been identied as:
Security and sustainability of energy supply;
The link between combustion of fossil fuels and dramatic changes in climate; and
Availability of technological innovation in energy conversion, transmission and use.
In the case of security and sustainability of supply of non-renewable energy resources particular attention has been directed to
oil because of its importance for transport (some 70% is used for road transport and 12% for air transport). The rate of growth in
demand, particularly in China and India, runs the risk of outpacing supplies unless we increase not only conservation and
evolutionary improvements to existing technologies, but also develop new approaches to electricity generation and to transport.
The need for breakthrough energy solutions is all the more important because most scientists and their governments have
become increasingly convinced that the consequences of continuing to burn fossil fuels of all types at current or expanded rates
will lead to signicant climate change [7]. Combustion of liquid, sold and gaseous fuels leading to increased emission of
greenhouse gases has been linked to increases of global surface temperature over the past decades coupled with changes in rainfall
patterns and a rise in sea level. Predictions of more severe changes in the future have led to actions seeking to reduce emissions
from coal-red utilities and to increase the use of renewable energy sources.

E-mail address: gregtegart1@ozemail.com.au.

0040-1625/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.06.010

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The role of technological innovation is critical in such actions. The International Energy Agency in a recent report has shown
that by using existing technologies more effectively and by accelerating development of new technologies, the world could be
brought to a more sustainable energy path [8]. The necessary changes are built around:
Strong energy efciency gains in the transport, industry and building sectors,
Electricity supply becoming signicantly decarbonised as the power-generation mix moves towards nuclear power, renewable
energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal, natural gas and coal with carbon dioxide capture and storage; and
Increased use of biofuels for road transport.
Many potential technologies exist and no single one can ensure a country's energy future. An integrated approach is needed in
which various technologies can make signicant contributions. Countries need to make priority decisions based on present and
future energy resources and nancial and technological capabilities.
2. The Australian situation
Electricity generation together with fuels for air and land transport are particularly signicant areas for Australia in view of
its large land mass and long distances between major population centres. Australia has large energy resources, particularly of fossil
fuels [3,9,10]. Thus black coal reserves have a potential life of 100 years and brown coal of 500 years. Both provide the major
sources of electricity for the country. Natural gas reserves are about 60 years while oil production has peaked and is declining.
Uranium reserves are sufcient for about 50 to 100 years but uranium oxide is exported since Australia has no power reactors.
Contributions from renewable energy sources such as hydro, biomass, wind and solar currently are small.
Australian government policy has historically stressed energy competitiveness, energy security and energy sustainability [10].
This is based around improving efciency of existing energy use and developing new energy sources. A number of technologies
have been supported by government and industry. The development of low-emission technologies for fossil fuel combustion
coupled with carbon capture and storage has been favoured to support continued use of black coal while new approaches to energy
production such as photovoltaic systems, wind turbines and fuel cells have been identied as potential new industry sectors [10].
The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) has recently carried out a study for Australia which lists
options and costs for a scenario of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources [11]. Constraints on rapid change are that established
energy infrastructure typically has long lifetimes, e.g. coal-red power plants (4050 years), commercial buildings (45+ years) and
cars and trucks (1220 years) and that introduction of new technologies involves large investments and considerable risk to investors.
3. A role for nanotechnologies in energy conversion and use
All the elementary steps of energy conversion (charge transfer, molecular rearrangements, chemical reactions etc) occur at the
nanoscale (a nanometre is one billionth of a metre) the scale of atoms and molecules. In recent years a major new area of science
and technology (nanoscience and nanotechnologies) has been created around engineering at the molecular level [1215]. The
development of nanoscale materials with new physical and chemical properties, as well as the methods to characterise, manipulate
and assemble them, has created a new paradigm which could change traditional approaches to energy conversion, storage,
transmission and use.
Nanomaterials can be produced in a variety of material classes such as: carbon-based nanomaterials, nanocomposites, metals
and alloys, biological materials, nanopolymers, nanoglasses and nanoceramics. Most of these classes can be produced in a variety of
shapes as:
Nanoscale in one dimension thin lms, layers and surfaces;
Nanoscale in two dimensions nanowires and graphene sheets which can be rolled into nanotubes;
Nanoscale in three dimensions nanoparticles of regular or irregular shape, fullerenes(spherical molecules containing 60 or
more carbon atoms in a cage structure), graphite sheets, dendrimers (structured polymeric molecules) and quantum dots
(small nanoscale particles of semiconductors whose optical properties can be controlled by size.
One of the interesting properties of such nanomaterials is their very high surface area per unit volume which leads to much
higher surface activity than in the bulk material. This has potential for speeding up chemical reactions and catalysis and thus
improving the efciency of many processes.
Possible applications of nanotechnologies in energy systems have been identied in various reviews [1619] as:
Energy conversion solar cells, thermoelectric devices, catalysts for conversion, environmental management, fuel cells, carbon
dioxide capture and storage, hydrogen production;
Energy storage supercapacitors, batteries, hydrogen storage;
Energy transmission superconducting cables, hydrogen distribution; and
Energy use conservation in manufacturing industry and construction, materials for transport, fuel cells, catalysts for combustion.
Many of these applications offer potential energy savings and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Thus one estimate in the
US suggests that potential reductions from eight fairly straightforward applications of nanotechnologies could be about 15% of
total energy consumption. Examples are: strong, lightweight materials in transport (6.2%), solid-state lighting (3.5%), self-

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G. Tegart / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 12401246

optimising motor systems (2.3%), smart roofs with reectivity control (1.2%), energy-efcient separation membranes (0.8%) [20].
A longer term estimate for the UK suggests that about 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is possible by 2050 from
improved storage and the introduction of a hydrogen economy [18].
4. Research approach and methodology of the study
In 2007 ATSE was awarded a grant from the Australian Research Council to examine the potential for the application of
nanotechnologies to future energy systems in Australia. Because of the broad membership of ATSE with Fellows elected from
leaders of industry, industrial researchers, academics and Government researchers, there was potentially a strong starting base of
converging technologies to draw on.
The aim of the project was to bring together a range of views of experts in energy, materials and nanotechnologies to produce a
denitive report on breakthrough energy solutions over the next 20 years in Australia based on nanotechnologies and to examine
routes and constraints to commercialisation.
A Steering Committee composed of Fellows and invited experts was appointed by the ATSE administration; this Committee
included the Project Leader, Professor Greg Tegart, and a Co-Leader, Professor Max Lu. The Steering Committee met on ve
occasions and members interacted informally with the Project Leader during the course of the project. As a starting point it was
decided that a short discussion paper be prepared and circulated among Fellows and the wider technical community to promote
discussion. Following distribution of this paper, interactive workshops were held in four major cities (Melbourne, Sydney,
Brisbane and Canberra) in Australia bringing together selected ATSE Fellows and experts from research and industry. An average of
18 Fellows and experts, mainly from academic and government institutions but also including energy companies, attended the
workshops. In brainstorming sessions lasting about 3 h, future energy needs for Australia and research opportunities for
nanotechnologies and their exploitation were identied.
The Steering Committee also developed a questionnaire with 10 questions covering expertise of respondents, major forces
affecting future energy production and use in Australia, critical sectors for energy use, promising areas for nanotechnologies in
energy in Australia, opportunity areas for R&D and commercialisation, and constraints in these areas. This questionnaire was
circulated at the workshops and then was circulated more widely to ATSE Fellows. A total of about 70 responses were received. The
responses were rated on a simple weighted frequency and these were converted to percentages. The main outcomes of the
workshops and the results of the questionnaire are given in the project report [21]. Some examples of responses are shown in
Figs. 13.
The views on forces shaping the future of energy policy in Australia are shown in Fig. 1.
Climate change is seen as the major driver of energy policy given the strong commitment to use of fossil fuels as noted in
Section 2 coupled with international pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The lower rating of security of supply reects
the view that reasonable local sources of petroleum will be available for the next decade and that further sources can be obtained
from conversion of coal and natural gas to liquids.
The views on critical sectors in future energy patterns in Australia are shown in Fig. 2. The most critical sector is seen to be
electricity generation reecting the high dependence of the major proportion of the population, which lives in large cities near the
coast, on electricity for daily living. A driver of this view is the prediction that climate change will lead to longer periods of
increased temperatures and thus increased demand for air conditioning. Individually, transport, business and industrial activities
rank lower. Land transport ranks more highly than air transport since it is more a part of daily living.
Against this background Fig. 3 shows the views on applications of nanotechnologies to components of the overall energy
system. The preference for energy conversion reects the importance placed on electricity generation and also the effort which has

Fig. 1. Forces shaping the future of energy policy in Australia.

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Fig. 2. Critical sectors in future energy patterns in Australia.

been devoted to the development of solarthermal systems, photovoltaic systems and fuel cells over several decades to reduce
electricity costs to compete with fossil fuel production.
The Steering Committee then produced a matrix to rate the possible applications of nanotechnologies in energy systems in the
Australian context against a number of factors: markets, contribution to reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, contribution of
nanotechnologies, capability in R&D, capability to manufacture systems and long-term potential requiring a strategic investment
in the area. Based on the discussions of the workshops and the questionnaire and their own experience, the Steering Committee
rated the factors qualitatively on the basis of L low, M medium, H high. The results are shown in Table 1.
This assessment identied the opportunities for applications of nanotechnologies in the energy area in Australia as follows:
Short term (less than 5 years) energy conservation, environmental management, catalysts for combustion, photovoltaic cells;
Medium term (515 years) catalysts for conversion of biomass, gas and coal, fuel cells, advanced photovoltaic systems using
engineered nanomaterials; and
Long term (greater than 15 years) hydrogen production, storage and use.
These applications are discussed in detail in the ATSE report [21] and the following examples are based on the discussions there.
5. Examples of contribution of nanotechnologies to energy technologies in Australia
5.1. Energy conservation
The large suburban areas of Australian cities with limited public transport and the long distances between major centres mean
that vehicle ownership is high and that there is a high demand for petroleum products. There are opportunities for substantial
savings in fuel use and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by reducing the weight of vehicles a 10% reduction in weight by
using nanocomposites can lead to a 10% reduction in fuel use. These savings can be increased by using hybrid or electric drive
systems. Better performance can be obtained from these by improving storage either in batteries or in supercapacitors both of
these can be improved through nanostructured electrode design.

Fig. 3. Promising areas for application of nanotechnologies in the Australian energy system.

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Table 1
Assessment of technology areas for application of nanotechnologies in energy in the Australian context over the next 20 years.
Market in
Australia

Contribution to
CO2 reduction

Contribution of
nanotech

R&D
capability

Mfg.
capability

Future
potential

Energy conversion
Photovoltaic cells
Thermoelectric devices
Catalysts for conversion
Environmental management
Fuel cells (stationary)
Hydrogen production
CO2 capture and storage

M
L
M/H
M/H
M
L
H

M
L
M
M
M
L
H

H
M
H
L/M
L/M
L/M
L/M

H
L
L
L/M
M
L
H

L/M
L
L
M
L/M
L
L/M

H
L
H
H
M
M/H
H

Energy storage
Supercapacitors
Batteries
Hydrogen storage

L/M
H
L

L
M
L

L/M
L/M
M/H

M
M/H
L/M

L/M
M
L

M
H
H

Energy transmission
Superconducting systems

Energy use
Energy conservation
Materials for transport
Fuel cells (transport)
Catalysts for transport fuel

H
H
L
H

H
H
L
L/M

M
H
M
H

L/M
M/H
M
L

L
L
L
L

H
H
H
H

Technology area

The high summer temperatures in Australia, and often high humidity, mean that air conditioning loads on the power system
are high. These can be reduced by using more efcient insulation a potential candidate is aerogels formed from nanostructured
carbon or silica or by using smart glazing. In this case, large area, low-cost, multilayer nanoscale coatings are applied to glass
surfaces to enable them to change their transmittance and reduce internal temperatures.
A high proportion of electricity is used to power light bulbs at a low efciency of about 10%. Considerable savings can be made
by using light-emitting diodes with higher efciencies. These are currently expensive since they use silicon but breakthroughs in
the use of nanoscale organic light-emitting lms or of nanolms of gallium arsenide on glass offer opportunities for a new
approach to commercial and domestic lighting.
5.2. Photovoltaic cells
With its abundance of solar radiation, Australia is ideally placed to develop and exploit photovoltaic cells. A photovoltaic cell
consists of a diode made of semiconducting material sandwiched between two electrical contact layers. Sunlight is absorbed by the
semiconductor and generates an electric current between the contact layers. The technology has been established for many years
but the challenge is to reduce the cost per unit of power by using less costly materials and improving efciency.
Silicon is the most widely used material but a very active research activity in Australia is examining a variety of approaches
including thin crystalline silicon slivers, crystalline silicon-on-glass technology, organic nanolms on polymers, quantum dots, dye
sensitised cells etc to cut costs. The efciency can be increased by using focussing collectors to concentrate the sunlight and various
congurations and collector materials are being examined. Some of these are being commercialised but there is enormous
potential for further applications, particularly in domestic and local grid situations.
5.3. Catalysts for conversion of natural gas
Australia is fortunate to have large reserves of natural gas of which a considerable fraction has been developed for domestic use
and for export as LNG. However much of the estimated reserves are in areas hard to access so-called stranded gas reserves.
Most of these are offshore and an option is to use a oating platform and process the gas to liquids which can be shipped out.
Because of the potentially limited scale of many of the elds, improved efciency of catalytic conversion will be needed to make
them economic. Nanostructured catalysts offer an opportunity to develop more cost-effective processes to extend Australia's
liquid fuel supplies and strengthen energy security.
5.4. Fuel cells
Fuel cells are electrochemical devices that convert the energy of a chemical reaction directly into electricity, with heat as a byproduct. Hydrogen and oxygen are combined in a controlled catalytic reaction in a cell containing two electrodes and an
electrolyte, yielding water and electricity. The principle is not new and a wide variety of fuels, electrodes and electrolytes have
been used to produce working systems. However they have all been costly compared to electricity generated from fossil fuels and
the challenge is to reduce costs and improve efciency.

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There is a strong thrust in Australia in solid oxide fuel cells which use non-porous ceramic electrodes at high temperatures to
achieve high efciencies. Ceramic nanopowders can improve fabrication of electrode membranes and thus reduce costs. In other
lower temperature cells, polymer electrolytes and electrodes of porous carbon with a catalytic layer are often used. Since only the
surface layers are involved in the reaction, costs can be reduced by using plasma sputtered nanolms. This research is providing a
basis for the introduction of fuel cells into vehicles in the longer term as an alternative to liquid fuels.
5.5. Hydrogen production, storage and use
The attraction of hydrogen as an energy carrier is that its combustion produces only water and no greenhouse gases. Hydrogen
can be burnt in a combustion chamber to generate power in vehicles or used in fuel cells to generate electricity. These attributes
have led to the concept of a hydrogen economy to replace the present hydrocarbon economy. Various estimates suggest that this
could occur between 2030 and 2050.
A critical factor is the supply of sufcient hydrogen. There are various ways of producing hydrogen such as: steam reforming of
natural gas, gasication of coal or breakdown of water by electrolysis or high-temperature reaction. Most of these involve emission
of greenhouse gases and the processes need to be linked to carbon dioxide capture and storage by geosequestration. For Australia,
with ample natural gas supplies, the use of nanostructured catalysts will improve the efciency of the reforming and gasication
processes. With the large distances between urban centres, electrolysis provides an attractive sustainable option for electricity
storage from intermittent renewable sources such as photovoltaics and wind turbines on a decentralised basis. The use of
nanostructured electrodes can assist electrolysis and reduce the reaction temperatures for breakdown.
Hydrogen has high caloric value by mass but low caloric value by volume. Thus it needs to be compressed for distribution,
storage and use. It has been suggested that hydrogen could replace natural gas as a fuel in engines using the current natural gas
network in Australia. However there is also a need for local storage of hydrogen gas in vehicles and nanostructured materials such
as metal hydrides and carbon nanotubes are being actively researched for hydrogen storage. The key to practical use of these is the
ability to absorb and release the hydrogen over many cycles without deterioration.
5.6. Markets and commercialisation of nanotechnologies for energy applications
In the short term, an analysis of global energy markets for 2014 [22] suggests that the primary impact of nanotechnology will
be in more efcient use of existing resources than in the creation of new supplies from solar and hydrogen-based technologies.
Thus solid-state lighting, nanocomposite materials, aerogels and fuel-borne catalysts are seen as having about 75% of the
nanotechnologies share of the global energy market. Energy saving technologies are estimated at about US$ 50 billion and
applications in transport about another US$ 50 billion. In the medium and longer term the commercialisation of energy generation
systems such as photovoltaics and focussed solar systems, followed by hydrogen fuel cells, will take a much greater share of the
market.
The discussion above has shown that there are many opportunities for applications of nanotechnologies in energy systems in
Australia. Clearly with a population of only 21 million the Australian market will initially be relatively small but an estimate is that
by 2015 it could be about A$ 3 billion [21]. However the potential for the Asia-Pacic region is much greater and there are excellent
opportunities to capitalise on Australian research, development and demonstration to support security and sustainability of
energy supplies in the region.
The development of the market will occur in two ways; by adaptation and change of existing processes and products, and by
sales of completely new products. In the rst case there is a need to diffuse new technologies into existing companies to transform
them. Given the scale of expenditure involved in commercialising such technologies, there is a need for publicprivate
partnerships to spread the risk. This is occurring in low-emission coal combustion processes and in carbon capture and storage. In
the second case there is a need for risk capital to assist start-up companies which may be spun out from research institutions.
Already there are a number of small to medium companies in the energy eld in Australia which depend on nanotechnologies such
as CAP-XX in supercapacitors, Ceramic Fuel Cells, Dyesol in dye sensitised solar cells, Origin Energy in silicon sliver solar cells and
Hydrexia in hydrogen storage [21].
6. Conclusion and policy implications
The previous Australian Government was strongly committed to energy R, D and D to support both better use of fossil fuels and
development of renewable energy sources [10] and this commitment has been maintained and reinforced by the present
Government. This study has shown that there are many opportunities for the application of nanotechnologies in energy systems in
Australia, both in transforming existing systems and in creating new ones. These changes can contribute signicantly to energy
security and sustainability both in Australia and in the Asia-Pacic region which is the most rapidly growing energy market in the
world. There is also the prospect of potential economic gains for Australia in terms of markets for new energy systems
incorporating nanotechnologies.
However, to realise these opportunities, signicant expenditure is needed on research, development and demonstration over a
sustained period [11]. In the case of nanotechnologies, a national strategy is still under development but the study gives a clear
message to the Australian Government that the role of nanotechnologies need to be recognised in any new legislation as a growing
group of technologies which can a substantial impact on all areas of energy conversion, storage, transmission and use.

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The study has identied priority areas for Australia and shown that, while there are signicant areas of strength, a number of
areas such as organic photovoltaic systems, dye sensitised photovoltaic systems, energy combustion and conversion catalysts, and
energy conservation using nanomaterials and nanosensors need to be supported more strongly in the short term. In the longer
term, research on hydrogen production and storage needs a boost.
Given the large geographic area of Australia and the dispersion of population, national coordination is needed to ensure
optimum use of available resources and skilled manpower in nanotechnologies. A critical component of such a strategy is the
development of a workforce with new skills together with the production of new codied knowledge for application in existing
industries as well as in creating new companies. Further, stimulation of the consumer market for renewable energy systems by the
use of scal incentives such as mandatory targets for renewable energy as in Spain or by the use of a feed-in tariff for electricity
generated from renewable energy sources as in Germany would support the application of nanotechnologies in energy systems.
The existing cheap cost of electricity from coal is a considerable disincentive to the introduction of new technologies.
Given a strong political will, Australia should be able to exploit the benets of the widespread application of nanotechnologies
in current and future energy systems and contribute to allaying national concerns over security of oil supply, sustainability of
Australian energy resources and predicted impacts of climate change associated with increased use of fossil fuels.
The lesson from the study is that, while it has used simple methodology, it has been able to draw freely on the expertise of ATSE
Fellows with a variety of expertise and experience across research and commercialisation. The prestige of ATSE has also
encouraged the participation of other experts and enabled the development of a community of supporters to present the outcomes
to the Australian Government. This led to the public launch of the ATSE report in early 2009 by a senior Minister. However the
current economic recession will probably delay implementation of its recommendations.
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Greg Tegart has had a long career in academia, industry and government in Australia and UK. He is a visiting professor at the Centre for Strategic Economic Studies
at Victoria University in Melbourne, Australia and is chairman of the International Advisory Board of the APEC Centre for Technology Foresight in Bangkok,
Thailand.