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Drought Monitoring
Weekly Update
18 Feb 2016
Geneva, Switzerland
UNOSAT Contact:
Email: unosat@unitar.org
T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations)
24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998
Postal Address:
UNITAR UNOSAT, IEH
Chemin des Anmones 11,
CH-1219, Genve, Suisse
Overview
Southern African countries are facing severe drought conditions with significant decrease in cropland due to
potential El Nino effects in the region with over 14 million people directly or indirectly affected (Source: WFP).
About 70% of total population in the region depend on agriculture and it has been estimated that close to 30
million people are at a risk for food insecurity. With the request from UN OCHA-ROSA (Regional Office for
Southern Africa), UNITAR-UNOSAT is monitoring the situation with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI) anomaly. The analysis was conducted from Feb 01 Feb 08, 2016.
Area of interest primarily includes the following countries: Angola, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique,
Namibia, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
Exposure estimates of population (from WorldPOP) and agricultural land (from ESAs GlobLandCover) based on Normalized
Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies from MODIS data (Source: NASA/GSFC/GIMMS)
2.4
8.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: It is possible that the population exposure has been underestimated as NDVI anomalies
are direct representation of changes in vegetation conditions and might not include urban settlements. So the
estimate indicates the population living directly on the land that is under potential severe drought conditions.
Country
Population exposure to
Potential Drought Conditions
Total Population
Mozambique
1,543,179
23,612,121
Angola
648,873
19,033,764
Zimbabwe
602,622
13,063,103
Madagascar
544,251
20,831,055
Zambia
458,164
13,195,794
Malawi
393,136
14,822,853
Swaziland
246,242
1,192,674
Lesotho
72,664
2,014,891
Namibia
Total
14,388
8,397,069
2,269,648
163,170,729
Table 1 shows the population living directly on the areas potentially under severe drought conditions
Country
Total Agricultural
Land(ha)
Mozambique
987,738
14,005,341
Zimbabwe
186,636
8,438,484
Madagascar
176,928
2,044,475
Zambia
90,438
4,412,611
Angola
71,431
10,039,317
Swaziland
67,307
451,018
Malawi
41,855
2,736,027
Namibia
14,741
3,112,103
Lesotho
Total
5,648
1,642,721
817,795
46,057,172
Summary
Preliminary analysis shows very severe changes in vegetation conditions, especially in Mozambique,
Swaziland, and Lesotho, parts of Zimbabwe and south of Madagascar. This assessment has not yet
been validated in the field. Please send feedback/questions to UNITAR-UNOSAT.
___________________________________________
This document is part of an ongoing climate services project of UNITAR-UNOSAT. Info at:
http://www.unitar.org/unosat/ in support of international humanitarian assistance and created to respond to the
needs of UN agencies and their partners.
UNOSAT Contact:
Email: unosat@unitar.org
T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations)
24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998
Postal Address:
UNITAR UNOSAT, IEH
Chemin des Anmones 11,
CH-1219, Genve, Suisse