End Module Here: Wrap Up and FAQs (Ch.

10)
Chapter 10
Wrap-up

You learned about inductive arguments

By now, you should be able to:

identify the various components of an inductive argument,

distinguish inductive generalizations from inductive analogical arguments,
evaluate the relative strength or weakness of an inductive argument,
analyze different methods of sample selection
FAQ's

Q1: Where do I find the sample and the target in an inductive argument?

A1: The sample can always be found in the premises. Remember that the sample is
the evidence or proof. In other words, the sample is the class of things or group that
we already have experience with, or have some knowledge of. The target item (if it
is an analogical argument) or the target class (if it is an inductive generalization)
can always be found in the conclusion of the argument. Remember that the target is
the new idea in the conclusion (the class of things we are making an educated
guess about).

Q2: Aren't generalizations bad things?

A2: No. Frequently generalizations are quite useful, and acceptable in our daily
lives. For example, if I have tried my moms apple pie three times in my life, and I
have loved it every time, it is fair to say that I love my moms apple pie in general.
This argument is a generalization, and it seems to be based on adequate evidence.
We make generalizations every day. This fact does not mean that generalizations
are always good. They can suffer from the fallacies of bias and hastiness (when
hastiness occurs, sometimes it is called over - generalizing). So generalizations
need to be evaluated, but we should not assume that all generalizations are bad.

Q3: Whats so bad about a self-selected sample?

A3: A self-selected sample is a sample in which the members of the sample have
sought out the survey in order to participate in it. Sometimes self-selected samples
are called voluntary response. The problem is that most people, who have
opinions on issues, do not have strong enough opinions to seek out the survey to
include themselves in the sample. Therefore, self-selected samples over-represent
people with really strong opinions on the issue, and under-represent everyone else
in the target population. For example, how is the American Idol chosen? People
must text in or call in to vote for their favorite person. Who would go to the trouble
of texting in or calling in? You may watch the show and think that one person is a
better singer than another, but would you go to the trouble of casting a vote?
Probably not. So the people who do cast votes are those with really strong opinions,
or those who are obsessed with one singer, or the family or friends of a particular
singer. The people who vote do not represent the entire target population of people
who watch the show. Remember that the goal of an inductive argument is for the
sample to represent the target population. Self-selected samples fail to represent
the target population.

Q4: If I see a survey that says it has used a randomly-selected sample, can I
assume that the sample is good?

A4: Unfortunately, no. You may see the words randomly-selected even though the
sample is not truly randomly selected. For example, Zogby polls (a very popular poll
on the Internet) has many times in the past claimed that their samples were
randomly selected when, in fact, they were not. Remember that the definition of a
randomly-selected sample is that every member of the target population has an
equal chance of being selected for the sample. Now, very fewsamples are ever
perfectly randomly-selected. But some samples come much closer to meeting this
definition than others. Zogby polls would not come anywhere near close to meeting
this definition. Zogby would select their sample in the following way: they would
randomly select from a nationally representative panel of Americans. What does
this really mean? Zogby would get a large group of people, and that group of people
would match the various demographic characteristics of America, based on census
data. Then they would try to get these people to agree to be a part of their panel
(asking them to agree to answer surveys throughout the year). They would even
provide incentives to the participants to try to get them to agree to be on their
panels (for example, they would offer free Internet access to those participants who
did not already have Internet access). Then, to choose a sample for a particular
survey, Zogby would randomly select from the people who agreed to be on their
panel. So they could use the words randomly selected because they did randomly

choose from their panel. But is this really a randomly-selected sample of

Americans? NO! Not every American had an equal chance of being selected for
Zogbys sample; only those people who agreed to be on their panel had any
chance of being selected for the sample. Statisticians have complained for years
about tactics like Zogbys and other groups

Q5: How can I find out how the sample was selected for a survey?

A5: The best way is to go to the web site of the organization that conducted the
survey, and look for the methodology for selecting the sample. Groups like
SurveyUSA, Gallup, Pew Research, and others have a whole portion of their web
sites devoted to explaining exactly how they select their samples. You may need to
dig around their web sites for their methodology, but they do have it explained
online. Reliable survey organizations always reveal their methodology, even though
it may not be easy to find. In other cases, you can figure out the methodology on
your own. For example, if you get a pop-up on your screen when you are online and
the pop-up says something like Click here to take a survey, then you know the
sample is NOT randomly selected, but self-selected (I would have to be interested in
the topic to click on the linkmost people dont care, and so would not click on the
link.)