Chapter 10 QBM

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13
Page1
Lecture Notes for wk 9 and 10

Chapter 10 - Sampling Distribution and Central Limit Theorem
Statistics is a science of inference. It is the science of generalization from a part (the
randomly chosen sample) to the whole (the population).
A random sample of n elements is a sample selected from the population selected from
the population in such a way that every set of n elements is as likely to be selected from
the It is important that the sample be drawn randomly from the entire population under
study.
10.1
Why Sample the Population?

The following are few reasons for sampling.
o The physical impossibility of checking all items in the population. Pop is
infinite.
o The cost of studying all the items in a population is very high.
o The sample results are usually adequate.
o Contracting the whole population would often be time-consuming.
10.2
Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means, x .

If we were to take a great many samples of size n from the same population,
we would end up with a great many different values for the sample mean
and sample variance. The resulting collection of sample means, x could then
be viewed as a new random variable with its own mean and standard
deviation. The probability distribution of these sample means is called the
distribution of sample means, or the sampling distribution of the sample
mean.
o The sampling distribution of the sample mean is a probability distribution of
all possible sample means of a given sample size selected from a population.
o The mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean is denoted by
mx = m
o The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample means is
called the standard error of the mean,
sx =
s
n
Page2
Example 10.1 : Assuming that the mean weight of all the 10,000 students in HELP is
50 kg with a standard deviation of 5 kg.
Samples of 30 students are selected. For each sample the mean(sample mean)
represented by x and the sample variance represented by s2 are determined.
A frequency distribution of the sample mean is drawn and it is known as the
sampling distribution if the sample mean. This sampling distribution of sample
mean must have a mean and a standard deviation. The mean of the sampling
distribution of the mean is written as m x and it must be equal to the population
mean. i.e m x = m = 50kg
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean written
as s x
sx =
10.3
which
is
also
known
as
standard
error
the
mean
and
5
= 0.91kg
30
Properties of the Distribution of Sample Means
When all possible samples of a specific size are selected with replacement from a
population, the distribution of the sample means for a variable has two important
properties.
First property of Distribution of the sample means.
The mean of the sample means is equal to the population mean ie
mx = m
Second Property:
The standard deviation of the sample means is called the standard error of the mean,
Where
sx =
10.4
The Central Limit Theorem
sx
1. When the population distribution is normal, the sampling distribution of the

sample means will be normally distributed for any sample size n.
2. When the population distribution is non-normal, the sampling distribution of
sample means,
x will be normally distributed if the sample size, n 30.
Page3
o The central limit theorem can be used to answer questions about sample
means in the same manner that the normal distribution can be used to answer
questions about individual values. The only difference is that a new formula
must be used for the z-value. It is:
Z=
x - mx
sx
x-m
The central limit theorem is basic to the concept of statistical inference

because it permits us to draw conclusions about the population based strictly
on sample data, and without having any knowledge about the distribution of
the underlying population.
o
Eg 10.2: The time required by workers to complete an assembly job has a mean of
50 minutes and a standard deviation of 8 minutes. To spot check the workers
progress on a particular day, their supervisor intends to record the time of 60
workers to complete one assembly job a piece.
i.
What is the probability that a randomly selected worker will take more
than a mean of 58 minutes to assemble the job.
ii
What is the probability that the sample mean will be more than 52 minutes?
iii. What is the probability that the sample mean will be between 49 and 52
minutes?
i.
Required area
x
m =50
z=0
P ( x > 58 min s ) = P ( Z >

=
58
z=1
58 - 50
)
8
P ( Z > 1) = 0.5 0.3413 =0.1587
Page4
ii.
Required area
Let
m x = m = 50
52
Z= 0
1.94
x = sample mean time needed to complete the job, = 50, = 8, n = 60

ii.
x-m
p( x > 52) = p z >
52 - 50 52 - 50
p z >
= 8 ( 60) = p
8
60
(Z>1.94)
= 0.5- 0.4738 = 0.0262
i.
49 - 50
52 - 50
P (49 min . < x < 52 min .) = P
<Z<
8
8
60
60
= P( -0.97 < Z 1.94) = 0.3340 + 0.4738 = 0.8078
Example 10.3: Suppose the mean selling price of a gallon of gasoline in the
United States is $1.30. Further, assume the distribution is positively skewed,
with a standard deviation of $0.28.
What is the probability of selecting a sample of 35 gasoline stations with sample
mean selling price of more than $1.25?
o Solution:
1.25 - 1.3
p( x > 1.25) = P Z >
> p( Z > -1.06)
0
.
28
35
= 0.5+0.3554 = 0.8554
Eg 10.4. Assuming that the marks obtained by students taking Business

statistics are normally distributed with mean mark and standard deviation
of 60 and 8 respectively.
i.
What is the probability that the mark of a randomly

selected student is more than72 marks?
P ( x > 72) = P ( Z >
72 - 60
) = P ( X > 1.5)
8
= 0.5- 0.4332 = 0.0668

ii.
What is the probability that the mark of a randomly selected

student is between 55 and 70 ?
70 - 60
55 - 60
P(55 < X < 70) = P
<z<
8
8
= P( - 0.63< z < 1.25)
= 0.3944+0.2357 = 0.6301
iii.
What is the probability that the mean mark of a randomly

selected sample of 50 students is between 61 and 63 ?
61 - 60
63 - 60
P(61 < x < 64) = P
<z<
8
8
50
50
= P( 0.88 < z < 2.65)

= 0.4960 0.3106 = 0.1854
iv.
What is the probability that the mean mark of a random sample

of 50 students is between 58 and 62?
58 - 60
62 - 60
P(58 < x < 62) = P
<Z<
8
8
50
50
= P( -1.77< Z < 1.77)

= 0.4616 + 0.4616 = 0.9232
Page5

Exercise 1
Assuming that the time taken by the students to travel to the campus is normally
distributed with a mean of 30 minutes and a stand deviation of 5 minutes.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
What is the probability that the time taken to travel to the campus by a randomly
selected student is between 25 minutes and 40 minutes?
What is the probability that the time taken to travel to the campus by a randomly
selected student is between 32 minutes and 38 minutes?
Is random samples of 25 students were selected, find the mean and standard error
of the resultant sampling distribution of the sample mean.
What is the probability that the sample mean of a random sample of 25 students is
more than 31 minutes?
What is the probability that the sample mean of a random sample of 25 students is
between 28 minutes and 31.5 minutes?
Exercise 2 : Assume that the waiting time to check in by airline customers has a mean
time of 12 minutes and a standard deviation of 4 minutes.
a. What is the probability that the waiting time of a randomly selected student
i. is less than 16 minutes?
ii. is between 6 minutes and 14 minutes?
b. What is the probability that the mean weight of a random sample of 50 students
i. is between 11 minutes and 13 minutes?
ii. is more than 11.5 minutes?
7.6
Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion
Consider samples of size n drawn from a population. For each sample, the proportion of
^
success ( p ) , known as sample proportion is determined. The frequency distribution and

the histogram of the distribution of the sample proportion is drawn. This distribution is
known as the sampling distribution of sample proportion which can be approximated by
the normal distribution if both np and nq are more than or equal to 5.
This sampling distribution of sample proportion must have a mean and standard
deviation(standard error of sample proportion).
The mean is written as m ^ = p
p
The standard error is written as
s^ =
p
pq
n
Page6

^
And conversion of p to z using z =
p- p
pq
n
Eg.10.5 The Laurier brand has a market share of 30%. In a survey, 1000 consumers
were asked which brand they prefer. What is the probability that more than 32% of the
respondents say they prefer Laurier brand?
Solution: Since np(300) and nq(700) are both more than 5, can use Z.
^
( p- p)
P ( p > 0.32) = P ( Z >
)
pq
n
(0.32 - 0.3)
= P(Z >
= P( Z > 1.38) = 1- 0.9162 = 0.0838
(0.3)(0.7)
1000
^
Exercise 3:
Assume that 60% of HELPs students are female. Sample of 100 students are selected.
i.
ii.
iii.
Find the mean and standard error of proportion of the resultant sampling
distribution of sample proportion
What is the probability that sample proportion of female students in a random
sample of 100 students is more than 65%?
What is the probability that the sample proportion is between 0.27 and 0.31?
Exercise 4
Assume that 40 % of a hyper-market customers are not local residents. What is the
probability that in a random sample of 50 students,
i.
more than 18 students are not local residents?
ii.
between 22 and 24 are not local residents?
Page7
Page8
Chapter Eleven: Estimation

The use of sample information to draw conclusion about the population is known as
inferential statistics.
One aspect of inferential statistics is estimation, which is the process of
estimating the value of a population parameter from information obtained from a
sample.
Example 11.1 : An inspector from the department of consumer affairs wanted to
know whether the actual weight of tuna was at least as the weight shown on the
label. Since she cannot weight every can of tuna, she draws a random sample of
cans and uses the sample data to estimate the mean of all cans of tuna.
There are two types of estimation, which are used to estimate the unknown value of the
parameter:
1. Point Estimate
2. Interval Estimate
11.1 Point Estimates
o A Point estimate is one value (a point) that is used to estimate a population
parameter.
The point estimates are the sample mean, the sample standard deviation, the
sample variance, the sample proportion etc
o Example.11.2: The number of defective items produced by a machine was
recorded for five randomly selected hours during a 40-hours work week. The
observed numbers of defectives were 12, 4, 7, 14 and 10. Find the point
estimate of the average number of defectives.
o Solution:
o The sample mean =
x=
12 + 4 + 7 + 14 + 10)
= 9.4
5
o Thus the point estimate for the hourly mean number of defectives,
Use
x as an estimate of m
Note : sample standard deviation, s = 3.97
m , is 9.4.

11.2
Page9
Interval Estimates
An interval estimator draws inferences about a population by estimating the value
of an unknown population parameter, using an interval that is likely to include the
value of the population parameter based on a sample.
Confidence Interval : It is an interval estimate for which there is a specified degree of

certainty that the actual value of the population parameter will fall within the interval.
Confidence Level : It expresses the degree of certainty that an interval will include the
actual value of the population parameter, but it is stated as a percentage. For example,
0.95 confidence coefficient is equivalent to a 95% confidence level.
Sampling Error : The difference between the observed statistic and the actual value of
the population parameter being estimated. This may also be referred to as estimation
error.
o The two confidence intervals that are used extensively are the 95% and the
99%.
o A 95% confidence interval means that about 95% of the similarly constructed
intervals will contain the parameter being estimated or 95% of the sample
means for a specified sample size will lie within 1.96 standard deviation of the
hypothesized population mean.
o For the 99% confidence interval, 99% of the sample means for a specified
sample size will lie within 2.58 standard deviations of the hypothesized
population mean.
8.3
Formula
for
Confidence
Interval
estimate
for
the
population
mean( Population standard deviation is know

CI
(m ) = X Z a
2 n
Example 11.3 A certain medication is known to increase the pulse rate of its user. The
standard deviation of the pulse rate is known to be 5 beats per minute. A sample of 30
users had on an average pulse rate of 104 beats per minute.
i. Find the 99% confidence interval of the true population mean.
Solution : CI
( m ) = X Za
At 99 % confidence level,
Page10
2 n
Za = Z 0.01 = Z 0.005
2
We can make use of the t table with d.f.=infinity
Z 0.005 = t0.005, =2.576 = 2.58(2 decimal places)
m = 104 2.58
5
= 104 2.4
30
= 101.6 to 106.4
Hence one can be 99% confident that the mean pulse rate of all users of this medication is
between 101.6 to 106.4 beats per minute, based on a sample of 30 users.
ii. Estimate the 90% confidence interval for the true pulse rate for all the users.
At 90% Confidence level,
Z 0.1 = 1.645
2
m = 104 1.645
5
= 104 1.51 = 102.49 to 105.51
30
Therefore the 90% Confidence interval for the true pulse rate for all the users is 102.49
and 105.51
iii. Estimate the 95% confidence interval for the true pulse rate for all the users.
At 95% Confidence level,
Z 0.05 = 1.96
2
m = 104 1.96
5
= 104 1.79 = 102.21 to 105.79
30
Therefore the 95% Confidence interval for the true pulse rate for all the users is 102.21
and 105.79
Exercise 1
In order to estimate the mean distance travelled daily by students to the HELP campus, a
random sample of 30 students were selected and the mean distance was found to be 20
km. Assuming that the population standard deviation was 2 km.
i.
Find the 90% confidence interval for the mean time travelled daily by all the
students to HELP campus.

ii.
iii.
iv.
What must be the minimum sample size so that the sampling error at the 95%
confidence level in part (ii) do not exceed 0.5 km?
11.4 Formula for Confidence Interval estimate for the mean( population standard
deviation is unknown)
CI.
(m ) = X ta
, n -1
2
n
11.5 Characteristics of Students t distribution

o The t-distribution has the following properties
o It is continuous, bell shaped and symmetrical about the mean, 0 like the zdistribution.
o There is a family of t-distribution sharing a mean of zero but having different
standard deviation.
o The t-distribution is more spread out and flatter at the center than the zdistribution as the sample size gets larger.
11.5.1 Degrees of Freedom
The number of degrees of freedom is equal to the total number of
measurements(these are not always raw data points), less the total number of
restrictions on the measurements. A restriction is a quantity computed from the
measurements.
Many statistical distribution use the concept of degrees of freedom, and the
formulae for finding the degrees of freedom vary for different statistical tests. The
degrees of freedom are the number of values that are free to vary after a sample
statistic has been computed, and they tell the researcher which specific curve to
use when a distribution consists of a family of curves.
The symbol d.f. will be used for degrees of freedom. The degrees of freedom for a
confidence interval for the mean are found by subtracting one from the sample
Page11
Page12
size. That is, d.f. = n-1. For some statistical tests the degrees of freedom, are not
equal to n-1.
Example 11.4 If the mean of 5 values is 10, then 4 of the 5 values are free to vary.
But once 4 values are selected, the fifth value must be a specific number to get a
sum of 50, since 50/5 = 10. Hence the degrees of freedom is 5-1=4 and this value
tells the researcher which curve to use.
Example 11.5:: Ten randomly selected automobiles were stopped, and the tread
depth of the right front tire was measured. The mean was 0.32 inch, and the
standard deviation was 0.08 inch. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean
depth. Assume that the variable is approximately normally distributed.
o Solution:
m = x ta
=
, n -1
s
0.08
= 0.32 t 0.05 ,9
2
n
10
0.32 2.262
0.08
= 0.32 0.06
10
= 0.26 to 0.38
The 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean depth is 0.26and
0.38.
Exercises.
Find t 0.1
,
,14
2
t0.1
, 50
t 0. 5
, t 0. 1
,
2
Example 11.6 A random sample of 10 packets of chocolate bars were selected

and the weights are shown below:
490 gm , 505 gms, 496 gm,
510 gm,
493 gm
508 gm, 500 gm,
488 gm,
498 gm.
508 gm,
Estimate the 90% and 95% confidence intervals for the true mean weight of all
the chocolate bars. State any assumption made
2
x = 4996 and x = 2496566
x=
x 4996
=
= 499.6 gm
n
10
( x)
x2 -
n
s=
n -1
49962
2496566 10
Page13
= 7.92 gm
x = 499.6 gm And s = 7.92 gm

At 90% confidence level, t 0.1
.9
2
m = x ta
=
= 1.833
s
7.92
= 499.6 t0.1 ,9
2
n
10
, n -1
499.6 1.833
7.92
= 499.6 4.6
10
= 495 gm to 504.2 gm
Therefore we are 90% confident that the mean weight of all chocolate bars weigh
between 495 gm and 504.2 gm
At 95% confidence level, t 0.05
,9
2
m = x ta
, n -1
499.6 2.262
= 2.262
s
7.92
= 499.6 t0.01 ,9
2
n
10
7.92
= 499.6 5.57
10
= 494.03 gm to 505.17 gm
Therefore we are 95% confident that the mean weight of all chocolate bars weigh
between 494.03 gm and 505.17 gm
Assumption: We have to assume that the population distribution of weights of
chocolate bars from which the sample was drawn is normally distributed.
Exercise 2
In order to estimate the mean distance travelled daily by students to the HELP campus, a
random sample of 30 students were selected and the mean distance was found to be 20
km and the standard deviation was 2 km.

i.
Page14
students to HELP campus.Ans : (19.38 km, 20.62 km)
ii.
students to HELP campus. Ans : (19.25 km, 20.75 km)
ii. Find the 99% confidence interval for the mean time travelled daily by all the
students to HELP campus. Ans: (18.99 km, 21,01 km)
11.6 Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion

The confidence interval for a population proportion is estimated by:
^ ^
CI(p) =
p Za
pq
n
^
Condition: It is appropriate to use Z when
n p5
and
nq 5
o Example 11.7: A sample of 500 nursing applications included 60 for men.

Find the 90% confidence interval of the true proportion of men who applied to
the nursing program.
Here = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10, and
Sample proportion = 60 / 500 = 0.12.
n p = 60 > 5andn q = 440 > 5 , So it is appropriate to use Z
Z 0.1
= t 0. 1
,
2
= 1.645 (1.65)
^ ^
CI(p) = p Za
= 0.12
pq
n
1.65
(0.12)(0.88)
= 0.12
500
0.024 = 0.096 to 0.144
The 90% C.I. estimate of the true proportion of men is 0.096, 0.144(9.6% ,
14.4%)11.7 Factors of Confidence Interval
The factors that determine the width of a confidence interval are:
1.
The sample size, n
Page15
2.
The variability in the population, usually estimated by s
3.
The desired level of confidence.
If all other quantities remain unchanged, an increase in the value of the level of
confidence will lead to an increase in table value,Z and it will lead to a wider
interval. If all other quantities remain unchanged, an increase in sample size will
lead to a narrow interval.
11.8 Sample Size needed for an Interval
Estimate of the Population mean.
In the formula for CI of the population mean,
s
Za
2 n
( m ) = X Za
2 n
is the limits of the estimate or known as sampling error denoted by
E
As n becomes larger and larger, sampling error becomes smaller and smaller.
E=
s
Za
2 n
n=
s E
=
n
Za s
2
Therefore
Za s
n= 2
E
Where E or B is the maximum error of estimate.

If necessary, round the answer up to obtain a whole number.
Example 11.8: The college president asks the statistics teacher to estimate the
average age of the students at their college. How large a sample is necessary?
The teacher decides the estimate should be accurate within 1 year and be 99%
confident. From a previous study, the standard deviation of the ages is known
to be 3 years.
Page16
Solution:
Since = 0.01 (or 1 - 0.99),
Z0.01 / 2 ( t 0.01
Za s
n= 2
E
) = 2.576(2.58), and E = 1,
(2.58)(3)
=
= 59.9
1
Therefore the minimum sample size is 60.

Eg11.9. We would like to estimate the time that students are late for lecture classes. A
random sample of 20 students selected have a mean time of 10 minutes late for lecture
classes. Assuming that the population standard deviation is 0.5 minutes
i.
Find the 95% confidence interval for the true mean time that students were late
for lecture classes.
Ans :
0.5
s
= 10 1.96
2 n
20
= 10 minutes 0.22 minutes
(m ) = X Z a
= 9. 78 minutes to 10.22 minutes

The 95% C.I. is 9.78 minutes to 10.22 minutes
ii. What must be the minimum sample size so that the sampling error in part (i) at
the 95% confidence level do not exceed 0.1 minutes?
Z .s
(1.96)(0.5)
n=
=
= 96.04
0.1
E
Ans :
Therefore the minimum sample size is 97 students.

11.9
Sample Size needed for Interval Estimate of a Population Proportion

In the formula for CI for proportion,
^ ^
CI,( p ) =
p Za
pq
n
Page17
^ ^
Za
pq
n
is the Limits of the estimates or the sampling error represented by E
or B(Selvanathan).
^ ^
Za
E=
pq
n
E
=
Za
^ ^
pq
n
^ ^
pq
E
=
Z
n
a
2
^ ^
Za
2
n = pq
E
Where E or B is the maximum error of estimate.

If necessary, round the answer up to obtain a whole number.
Example 11.10: A researcher wishes to estimate, with 95% confidence, the

number of people who own a home computer. A previous study shows that
40% of those interviewed had a computer at home. The researcher wishes to
be accurate within 2% of the true proportion. Find the minimum sample size
necessary.
Solution
Since a
= 0.05, Z 0.05 = t0.05

2
E=0.02,
p = 0.4
^ ^
= 1.96
and
Z 0.05
2
n = pq
E
q = 0.6
2
1.96
= (0.4)(0.6)
= 2304.96
0
.
02
Minimum sample size necessary = 2305 people

Exercise 3
A sample of 30 youth selected indicated that the mean number of times that they hangout in a month is 20. Assuming that the population standard deviation of the number of
times of hang-out in a month is 3.
i. Estimate the mean number of times of hang-out per month for all the youths at the
90% confidence level.
m = x z0.1
= 20 1.645
3
= 20 0.9
30
90% CI for mean is ( 19.1, 20.9)
ii
Estimate the mean number of times of hang-out per month for all the youths at the
95% confidence level.
m = x z0.05
s
2
3
= 20 1.07
30
= 20 1.96
95% C.I for population mean is (18.93, 21.07)
iii.
What must be the minimum sample size so that the sampling error in part(ii) at the
95% confidence level do not exceed 0.5 times?
Z .s 1.96(3)
n

138.29
E 0.5
2
Therefore minimum sample size = 139 youths

Exercise 4. In order to estimate the mean number of hours per day that college students
spend surfing the internet, a random sample of 50 college students were selected. The
mean number of hours per day reported by the sample of college students was 3 hours.
Assuming that the population standard deviation was 15 minutes.
i.
Find the 95% confidence interval for the true mean number of hours that college
students spent surfing the internet per day.
m = x z0.05
s
2
= 3 1.96
0.25
= 3 0.07
50
Therefore 95% CI for population mean is (2.93 hrs, 3.07 hrs)
Page18

ii.
What must be the minimum sample size so that the sampling error in part (i) do not
exceed 3 minutes at the 95% confidence level?
Z .s 1.96(0.25)
n

96.04
E 0.05
2
Therefore minimum sample size is 97 students

Exercise. 5 A nutritionist would like to estimate the mean number of times that
Malaysian eat-out for dinner in a month, A random sample of 10 Malaysian selected
reported a mean of 20 times of eat-out with a standard deviation is 5.
i.
Estimate the 90% confidence interval for the true mean time of eat-out per month
for all Malaysian.
ii. Estimate the 95% confidence interval for the true mean time of eat-out per month
for all Malaysian.
Ex. 6 In order to estimate the mean expenditure per car service , a random sample
cars were selected and their service expenditures are shown below.
RM250, RM220, RM180, RM200, RM210
RM 280, RM230, RM220, RM190, RM220
Also given :
x = 220 and s = 29.06
i. Estimate the 90% confidence interval for the true mean expenditure per car
service for all the cars.
ii. Estimate the 95% confidence interval for the true mean expenditure per car
iii. Estimate the 99% confidence interval for the true mean expenditure per car
Ex.7 A sports scientist would like to estimate the proportion of school children spending
their time on sports in the evening. In a random sample of 100 school children, 40
of them spent their time on sports in the evening.
Page19

i.
Estimate the 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of all school
children spending their time on sports in the evening.
ii. What must be the sample size so that the sampling error in part (i) do not
exceed 0.05 at the 95% confidence level?(Use the above sample information).
Ex 8. A lecturer would like to estimate the proportion of students who do not continue
lecture classes after a break. In a random sample of 50 students in a lecture class, 15
students did not come back after the break.
i. Estimate the 90% confidence interval for the true proportion of students who do
not come back to the tutorial class after the break.
ii. Using the above sample information, what must be the minimum sample size so
that the sampling in part(i) do not exceed 7%?
Chapter Thirteen: Testing of Hypothesis (One Sample Tests)
Statistical inference is concerned with how we draw conclusions from sample data about
the larger population from which the sample is selected.
In the previous chapter we discussed one branch of inference, namely estimation theory.
Another branch of inference is hypotheses testing theory.
Researchers are interested in answering many types of questions. For example, an
educator might wish to see whether a new teaching technique is better than a traditional
one. Automobile manufacturers are interested in determining whether seat belts will
reduce the severity of injuries caused by accidents.
These types of questions can be addressed
through statistical hypothesis testing, which is a decision-making process for evaluating
claims about a population.
In hypothesis testing, the researcher must define the population under study, state the
particular hypotheses that will be investigated, give the significance level, select a sample
Page20
Page21
from the population, collect the data, perform the calculations required for the statistical
test, and reach a conclusion.
13.1
Meaning of Hypothesis
o A Hypothesis is a statement about the value of a population parameter
developed for the purpose of testing.
13.2
Types of Hypotheses
A statistical hypothesis is a conjecture about the population parameter. This

conjecture may or may not be true. There are two types of hypotheses for each
situation: the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis, H0: A statement about the value of a population parameter.

The null hypothesis is either rejected or failed to be rejected
Alternative Hypothesis, H1: A statement about a population parameter alternate

to the hull hypothesis. It is accepted if the sample data provide evidence that the
null hypothesis is false.
Example 13.1: The mean income for systems analysts is $42000 per annum
against the claim that the mean income of systems analysts is
i). not equal to $42000,
ii) more than $42,000 and
iii) less than 42,000
Ho is the Null Hypothesis and H1 is the alternate hypothesis
i. H o
: m = 42000
ii. H o
: m = 42000 OR H o : m 42000 against H1 : m > 42000
iii.
against
H1 : m 42000
H o : m = 42000 OR H o : m 42000 against H1 : m < 42000
Null Hypothesis
Alternate Hypothesis
H o : m = $42000
H1 : m $42000
= Indicates:
Equal to
Is exactly the same as
Indicates
Not equal to
Is different from
is $42000 against
m is not equal to
$42000

Has not changed from
Has changed from
Is the same as
Is not the same as
H o : m $42000
Indicates Less than or equal to

At Most or not more than
Page22
H1 : m > $42000
>Indicates More than
$42000 against m is
more than $42,000
Above or has Increased
is no more than
H o : m $42,000
H o : m < $42,000
Indicates
< Indicates
equal to $42000 or it is
More than or equal to
Less than
at least $42000 against
At Least
Has decreased
m is less than $42,000
is more than or
Example 13.2 A company is offering weight reduction program and weight increase
program.
i.
The company claims that the weight will change after taking the program.
Ans: Ho :
H1 :
m = 60kg
, Reject the companys claim that mean weight will change
m 60kg , Accept the claim that mean weight will change.
ii. The company claims that the mean weight will be less after taking the program.
Ans: Ho :
m = 60kg
, Reject the companys claim that mean weight will be less than
60kg.
H1 :
m < 60kg , Accept the claim that mean weight will be less than 60kg..
iii. The company claims that the mean weight will increase after taking the program
Ans: Ho :
m = 60kg
, Reject the companys claim that mean weight increase to more
than 60kg
H1 :
m > 60kg , Accept the claim that mean weight will increase to more than 60kg
Another eg on Testing of population proportion.

Example 13.3 Last year 30% of university students were smokers. The university
introduce anti smoking program.
i.
Can you accepted the claim that the proportion of smokers has changed from 30%

Ans : Ho : p = 0.3, reject the claim that p
H1 :
Page23
0.3
p 0.3 , Accept the claim that p 0.3
ii. Can you accept the claim that the proportion of smokers has been reduced?
Ans : Ho : p = 0.3, reject the claim that p <0.3
H1 :
p < 0.3 , Accept the claim that p < 0.3
iii. Can you accept the claim the proportion of smokers has increased?
Ans : Ho : p = 0.3, reject the claim that p > 0.3
H1 :
13.3
p > 0.3 , Accept the claim that p > 0.3
Hypothesis testing and the nature of the test.
When formulating the null and alternate hypotheses, the nature, or purpose of the test must be
taken into account.
The purpose of the test can guide us towards the appropriate testing procedure.
13.3.1 One-Tail: Level Tests of significance

A one tail test indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in the
critical region on one side of the mean. A one tail test is either right tailed or left tailed,
depending on the direction of the alternate hypothesis.
A one-tail test in which the rejection region is at the right is known as the right tail test.
A one-tail test in which the rejection region is at the left is known as left tail test.
Right-tail Test : A test is one-tailed to the right when the alternate hypothesis,H1, states a right
direction, such as
Ho: The mean income of professors is $42000,
m =$42000
H1: The mean income of professors is more than $42000,
m > $42000
The test is a right tail since the alternate hypothesis indicated mean is more than $42000. So we
use more than sign in the alternate hypothesis.
Draw a graph of a right tail test at 0.05 level of significance showing the acceptance and
rejection or critical region and the critical value.
Page24
Left-tail Test : A test is one-tailed to the left when the alternate hypothesis,H1, states a left
direction, such as
m =$42000
H1: The mean income of professors is less than $42000,
m < $42000
The test is a left tail since the alternate hypothesis indicated mean is less than $42000. So we
use less than sign in the alternate hypothesis.
Draw a graph of a left tail test at 0.05 level of significance showing the acceptance and
13.3.2 Two-tail Tests: Level of significance

In a two tail test, the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value(statistic) is in
either of the two critical region.
A two tail test in which the rejection areas are at both ends of the distribution.
A test is two-tailed when no direction is specified in the alternate hypothesis, H1, such as
m =$42000
H1: The mean income of professors is not equal to $42000,
m $42000
Draw a graph of a two tail test at 0.05 level of significance showing the acceptance and
13.3.3 Errors in Hypothesis testing
In the judicial system, guilty persons sometimes go free, and innocent persons are
sometimes convicted.
The following extract is reproduced from:

Hamburg, M (1977) pages 258-59, Statistical
Analysis for Decision Making, (2nd Education)
Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc, New York.
Consider the process by which an accused individual is judged in a court of law

under our legal system. Under Anglo-Saxon law, the person before the bar is
assumed innocent; the burden of proof of guilt rests on the prosecution. Using the
language of hypothesis testing, let us say that we want to test hypotheses, which we
Page25
denote as H0, that the person before the bar is innocent. This means that there exists
an alternative hypothesis, H1, that the defendant is guilty.
The jury examines the evidence to determine whether the prosecution has
demonstrated that this evidence is inconsistent with the basic hypotheses, H0 of
innocent. If the jurors decide the evidence is inconsistent with H0, they reject that
hypotheses and therefore accept its alternative, H1, that the defendant is guilty.
If we analyse the situation that results when the jury makes its decision, we find
that four possibilities exist. The first two possibilities pertain to the case in which
the basic hypothesis H0 is true, and the second to the case in which the basic
hypotheses H0 is false.
1. The defendant is innocent (H0 is true), and the jury finds that he is innocent (accept H0);
hence the correct decision has been made.
2. The defendant is innocent (H0 is true), and the jury finds him guilty (reject H0); hence
an error has been made.
3. The defendant is guilty (H0 is false), and the jury finds that he is guilty (reject H0);
hence the correct decision has been made.
4. The defendant is guilty (H0 is false), and the jury finds him is innocent (accept H0);
hence an error has been made.
In case (1) and (3), the jury reaches the correct decision; in case (2) and (4), it
makes an error. Let us consider these errors in terms of conventional statistical
terminology.
Type I Error: When we reject a null hypothesis, there is a chance that we made
a mistake i.e. we have rejected a true statement. Rejecting a true null hypothesis
is referred to as a Type I error and the maximum probability of making such an
error is the level of significance represented by
Type II Error: On the other hand we can also make the mistake of failing to
reject a false null hypothesis which we referred as a Type II error and the
maximum probability of making a type II error is represented by
b.
It may be noted that in our legal system a Type I error is considered to be more
serious than type II error as we feel that it is worse to convict an innocent
person than to let a guilty one go free.
Had we made Ho the hypothesis that the defendant is guilty, the meaning of type
I and Type II error would have been reversed.
13.4
Meaning of Hypothesis Testing

o Hypothesis testing is a procedure, based on sample evidence and probability
theory, used to determine whether the hypothesis is a reasonable statement
and should not be rejected, or is unreasonable and should be rejected.
13.5
Steps in Testing a Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the researcher must define the population under study, state the
particular hypotheses that will be investigated, give the significance level, select a sample
from the population, collect the data, perform the calculations required for the statistical
test, and reach a conclusion.
Below is the summary of the six steps of hypothesis testing.
Step 1: State null and alternate hypotheses.
Step 2: Identify the test statistic
Step 3: Select a level of significance, given in question
Step 4: Formulate a decision rule
Step 5: Take a sample, calculate the test statistic
Page26
Page27
Step 6 : Decision
Do not reject Ho
13.5.1
Reject Ho and accept H1
Formulating the null and alternate hypothesis
The null hypothesis asserts that a population is equal to, no more than or no less than
some exact value, and it in evaluated in the face of numerical evidence. An appropriate
alternate hypothesis covers other possible values for the alternate parameter.
13.5.2 : Selecting the test statistic
The test statistic will be either Z or t, corresponding to the normal and the t distribution
respectively.
An important consideration in tests involving a sample mean is whether the population
standard deviation is known
The Z test will be used for hypothesis tests involving a sample mean if the
population standard deviation is known.
The t test will be used for hypothesis tests involving a sample mean if the
population standard deviation is unknown.
The Z test will be used for hypothesis tests involving a sample proportion with the
conditions of both np and nq are more than or equal to 5.
13.5.3 : Select the significance level(Given in the question)

If we end up rejecting the null hypothesis, there is a chance that we are wrong in doing so
i.e. That we made a type I error. The significance level is the maximum probability that
we will make such a mistake.
13.5.4: Formulating the decision rule
The critical value(s) will bound rejection and non-rejection regions for the null
hypothesis. The rejection and non-rejection regions can be stated as a decision rule
specifying the conclusion to be reached for a given outcome of the test.

Critical value: The dividing point between the region where the null hypothesis is
rejected and the region where it is not rejected.
The critical or rejection region: It is the range of values of the test value that indicates
that there is a significant difference and the null hypothesis should be rejected.
The non-critical or non-rejection region: It is the range of values of the test value that
indicates that the difference was probably due to chance and that the null hypothesis
should not be rejected.
13.5.5 Calculating the test statistic value
The purpose of the test is to determine whether it is appropriate to reject or not to reject
the null hypothesis.
So the test statistic value is a value determine from the sample information, used to
determine whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.
13.5.6 : Making the decision
If the calculated value is in the rejection region, the null hypothesis will be rejected.
Otherwise the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. Faluure to reject the null hypothesis
does not constitute proof that it is true but rather that we are unable to reject it at the level
of significance being used for the test.
13.6: Methods of hypothesis Testing
The three methods used to test hypothesis are
1. The traditional method
2. The p-value method
3. The confidence level method
The traditional method will be explained first. It has been used since the hypothesis
testing method was formulated.
A new method, called the p-value method, has become popular with the advent of
modern computers and high-powered statistical calculators.
The confidence interval method illustrates the relationship between hypothesis testing
and confidence intervals estimates.
13.6.1 Traditional method of Hypothesis Testing for the Population Mean:
Population Standard Deviation Known
Page28

o When testing for the population mean and the population standard deviation
is known, the test statistic is given by:
Z=
x-m
o Example 13.4: It is claimed that the average college student reads less than the
general public. The national average is 29.4 hours per week, with a standard
deviation of 2 hours. A sample of 30 college students has a mean of 27 hours.
Is there enough evidence to support the claim at = 0.01?
o Solution:
Step 1 H0: = 29.4 hrs, Reject the claim that college students read less than national
average
H1: < 29.4 hrs, Accept the claim that college students read less than national
average
Step 2: Test statistic:
Z=
x-m
since s is known
Step 3: Level of Significance: = 0.01

Step 4: Decision Rule: Reject H0 if Z < -2.33
Step 5: Value of the test statistic:
27 - 29.4
Z = = -6.57
2 / 30
Step 6: Conclusion: -6.57 < -2.33; Reject H0
There is enough evidence to support the claim that college students read less than the
general public at the 1%(0.01) level of significance.
13.6.2 p-value in Hypothesis Testing
o
A p-value is the probability, assuming that the null hypothesis is true, of finding
a value of the test statistic at least as extreme as the computed value for the test.
If the p-value is smaller than the significance level a , H0 is rejected.
If the p-value is larger than the significance level a , H0 is not rejected.
Page29

The p-value of a test of hypothesis is the smallest value of that would lead to rejection of
the null hypothesis.
13.6.3 Computation of the p-value
One-Tailed Test: p-value =

P {z absolute value of the computed test statistic value}
Two-Tailed Test: p-value =

2 times P {z absolute value of the computed test statistic value}
Example 13.5: The mean marks obtained by the students used to be 45 with a
standard deviation of 4.36 marks. A new system was introduced and it was
claimed that the new system will produce different grade of students. After a few
months of introducing the new system a random sample of 50 students selected
showed that the mean marks obtained was 46.54. Can we accept the claim at 5%
level of significance? Use p-value met
Solution:
H0: = 45 (the claim is not accepted)
H1: 45 (the claim is accepted)
Z=
x-m

Step 4: Decision Rule: Reject H0 if p-Value <
Or Reject Ho if Z > 1.96 or Z<-1.96
Or if
Z > 1.96

46.54 - 45
Z = = 2.498 2.50
4.36 / 50
Area value of between 0 and 2.50 = 0.4938
p-value = 2 (1 - 0.9938) = 0.0124
Step 6: Conclusion: 0.0124 < 0.05; Reject H0
Or Reject Ho because 2.5 > 1.96
Page30

There is evidence to accept the claim that the new method will produce different grade
of students at the 5% level of significance.
Example 13.6 The mean marks obtained by the students used to be 45. A new system
was introduced and it was claimed that the new system will produce better students.
After a few months of introducing the new system a random sample of 50 students
selected showed that the mean marks obtained was 46.54. The population std deviation
was known to be 4.36 marks. Can we accept the claim at 5% level of significance? Use
p-value method.
Solution:
Step 1 H0: = 45 (the claim is not accepted)
H1: > 45 (the claim is accepted)
Z=
x-m
Pop SD is Known

Step 4: Decision Rule: Reject H0 if p-value < 0.05 Or Zcal > 1.645
Z=
( 46.5 - 45)
= 2.498 2.50
4.36
50
p-value = 1 - 0.9938 = 0.0062

Step6:Conclusion:0.0062<0.05, Reject H0
There is evidence to accept the claim that the new method will produce better students at
the 5% level of significance.
Exercise 1.
A random sample of 30 customers patronizing a cyber cafe was found to have a mean age
of 25 years. Assuming that the population standard deviation is 4 years.
i. Can we accept the claim that the mean age of all customers is not 26.5 years at the 5%
significance level?
ii.
Can we accept the claim that the mean age of all customers is more than 23.5 years
at the 5% significance level?
Page31

iii.
Can we accept the claim that the mean age of all customers is less than 26.5 years at
the 5% significance level.
Exercise 2: rework question 1 using p-value method.

9.7 Testing for a Population Mean: Population standard deviation is unknown
o When the population standard deviation is unknown., the test statistic for the one
x-m
s
n
t=
sample case is given by:
Example 13.7 According to the norms established for a reading comprehension
test, standard six students should average 84.3. If 25 randomly selected standard
six students from a certain city averaged 87.8, with a standard deviation of 8.6,
test the null hypothesis = 84.3 for that city against the alternative hypothesis >
84.3, using = 0.05.
o Solution:
H0: = 84.3, mean has not increased
H1: > 84.3, mean has increased
t=
x-m
s
n

Step 4: Decision Rule: Reject H0 if t > t ,v i.e > t 0.05, 24 = 1.711
Step 5: Value of the test statistic: t =
87.8 - 84.3
= 2.04
8.6
25
Step 6 : Conclusion, 2.04 > 1.711, Reject Ho

There is sufficient evidence that > 84.3 at the 5% level of significance.
13.8
Confidence Interval Method
Example 13.8 A high school counselor believes the mean number of dropouts at her
college is 21 years. She reviews a sample of 17 dropouts and records the ages as shown
below:
12
18
24
16
21
20
18
19
22
25
16
18
19
19
20
23
19
Page32

a) At the 0.01 level of significance, is the counselors hypothesis refutable?
b) Find the 99% confidence interval estimate of the mean number of all dropouts.
c) Is the hypothesized value
contained in the interval of b? Does this confirm
the conclusion in part (a)? Explain

Solution :
x = 19.35 , s = 3.16
x=
By calculation :
x 329
=
= 19.35
n
17
3292
6527 17 = 3.16
s=
16
H o : m = 21 Do not refute counselors hypothesis
H1 : m 21 Refute counselors hypothesis
Test Statistics :
t=
x-m
s
n
Level of significance = 0.01

Decision rule : Reject Ho if tcal
> 2.921 t0.01 .16

1
OR if tcal>2.921 or t < -2.921

Value of test statistic: t cal
(19.35 - 21)
= -2.15
3.16
17
Conclusion: Since -2.15>-2.921, do not reject Ho

Therefore there is insufficient evidence at the 1% level of significance to refute the
counselors belief that the mean number of dropouts is 21.
b) CI ( m )
= x t0.01
= 19.35
s
3.16
= 19.35 2.92
,16
2 n
17
2.238
= 17.11 to 21.5887
Therefore we are 99% confident that the mean number of dropouts is between 17 to 22
Page33

C) Yes the hypothesized value of
Page34
m = 21 is contained in the interval (17 to 22).
Since 21 is within the 99% CI of 17 to 22, do not reject Ho and this confirm our
m decision in part (a).

Exercise 2.
A random sample of 30 customers patronizing a cyber cafe was found to have a mean age
of 25 years and a standard deviation is 4 years.
i.
Can we accept the claim that the mean age of all customers is not 26.5 years at the
5% significance level?
ii.
Can we accept the claim that the mean age of all customers is more than 23.5 years
at the 5% significance level?
iii.
Can we accept the claim that the mean age of all customers is less than 26.5 years at
the 5% significance level.
Exercise 3
An educationist claims that the students performance will be better with private tuition.
A random sample of 10 students with private tuition selected were given a test and the
marks scored are shown below:
40
45
58
Also given:
59
60
x = 650
63
and
70
80
85 90
2
x = 44664
i. Calculate the sample mean and standard deviation.
ii. Can we accept the educationists claim that the mean mark of students will be more
than 55 at the 0.05 level of significance?
13.9 Tests Concerning Population Proportion
o A proportion is the fraction or percentage that indicates the part of the
population or sample having a particular trait of interest.
Eg. If 2000 out of 10,000 students in HELP are female, the population
proportion of female students, represented by
p=
2000
= 0.2
10000
Page35
Eg. If 10 out of 25 students in a sample are female, then the sample proportion
^
of female students, represented by
p=
10
= 0.4
25
p
^
Numberofsuccesse sin thesample x
p=
=
NumberInTheSampled
n
o The sample proportion is denoted by
and is found by:
13.9.1 Test Statistic for Testing a Single Population Proportion.

^
Z=
p- p
pq
n
where q = 1 p
The sample proportion is p and the population proportion is p.

Condition : Both np and nq must be at least 5
o Example 13.9 It is claimed that less than 40% of HELPs students are hard working.
To test the claim a sample of 100 students selected at random showed that 35 are hard
working. Should the claim be accepted at 0.05 level of significance?
o Solution:np(0.4times100)=(40) and nq(0.6times100)=(60) > 5, so it is
appropriate to use Z test
^
Sample proportion,
p=
35
= 0.35
100
Step1:
H0: p = 0.4, Reject the claim that less than 40% of students are hardworking
H1: p < 0.4, Accept the claim that less than40% of students are hardworking
^
Step 2 : Test Statistic:
Z=
p- p
Pg 2 of formula sheet
pq
n
Step 3 :Level of Significance: = 0.05(given in question)

Step 4: Decision Rule: Reject H0 if z < -1.645
Or using p-value method, Reject Ho if p-value < 0.05

Z=
0.35 - 0.4
= -1.02
(0.4)(0.6)
100
p-value = 0.1539
Step 6:Conclusion: -1.02 > -1.645;
Do not reject Ho
Using p-value method, Since p-value 0.1539 >0.05, Do not reject Ho

There is sufficient evidence to reject the claim that less than 40% of HELPs
students are hard working at the 5% level of significance.
Example 13.10
In a random sample of 50 students, 20 students were late for tutorial classes. Can
we accept the claim that less than 50% of students were late for tutorial classes at
the 5% significant level?
^
20
Ans: p =
= 0.4 , q = 1 - 0.4 = 0.6
50
^
Step1:
H0: p = 0.5, Reject the claim that less than 50% of students were late for tutorial
classes
H1: p < 0.5, Accept the claim that less than 50% of students are late for tutorial
classes.
^
Step 2 : Test Statistic:
Z=
p- p
, Pg 6 of formula sheet
pq
n
Step 3 :Level of Significance: = 0.05

Step 4: Decision Rule: Reject H0 if z < -1.645
Or using p-value method, Reject Ho if p-value < 0.05
Page36
Z=
0.4 - 0.5
= -1.41
(0.5)(0.5)
50
p-value = 0.0793
Step 6:
Conclusion: -1.41 > -1.645;
Or p-value(0.0793) > 0.05,
Do Not Reject H0
There is insufficient evidence to accept the claim that less than 50% of students
were late for tutorial classes at the 5% level of significance.
ii. Will your decision of part(i) change at the 10% level of significance?
Answer: p-value(0.0793) < 0.1, Reject Ho
Therefore decision has changed to accepting the claim that less than 50% students
were late for tutorial classes.
Example 13.11
It is claimed that more than 40% of HELP students do not do homework.
A random sample of 300 HELP students selected showed that 135 do not do home work.
i.
Can we accept the claim at the 5%(0.05) level of significance?
ii.
Find the p-value of the test
iii.
Will your decision in part(i) change at the 2.5%(0.025) level of significance?
ii.
Step 1 : Ho : p =0.4, Reject the claim that >40% of students do not do homework
H1 : p > 0.4 Accept the claim that homework
^
Step 2 : Test Statistics :
p- p
Z=
pq
n
Step 3 & 4 : At 5% sig level , Reject Ho if Zcal > 1.645

Step 5 : Value of test statistic
^
Z=
p- p
0.45 - 0.4
=
= 1.77
pq
(0.4)(0.6)
n
300
Page37
Page38
Step 6 : 1.77 >1.645, Reject Ho

Therefore there is sufficient evidence to accept the claim that more than 40% of
HELP students do not do their homework at the 5% significance level.
ii
p-value =1 - 0.9616 = 0.0384(refer to diagram below)
iii
p-value(0.0384) > 0.025, Do not reject Ho

At the 2.5 % level of significance the decision has changed to insufficient evidence
to accept the claim that more than 40% of students in HELP do not do their
homework.
Exercise 4
A marketing manager claims that his product X has more than 30% of the market share
In a random sample of 200 consumers 72 indicated they preferred product X.
i.
Can we accept the marketing managers claim at the 5%(0.05) level of significance?
ii.
iii.
Will your decision in part(i) change at the 2.5%(0.025) level of significance?
Exercise 5
We wish to test the claim that less than 40% of students in HELP will attend tutorial
classes. In a random sample of 100 students, 35 students attended tutorial classes.
i.
Can we accept the claim at the 5% level of significance?
ii
Find the p-value
iii.
Will your decision in part(i) change at the 2.5% level of significance?
Exercise 6.
It is claimed that more than 35% of students in HELP made use of transportation
provided. To test the claim, a random sample of 250 students was selected. It was
found that 100 of the students in the sample made use of the transportation provided.
i.
Can we accept the claim at the 5% level of significant?
ii.
iii. Will your decision changed at the 2.5 % level of significance?

Chapter 10 QBM

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 10 QBM

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

Lecture Notes for wk 9 and 10

Why Sample the Population?

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Means, x .

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

Properties of the Distribution of Sample Means

The Central Limit Theorem

1. When the population distribution is normal, the sampling distribution of the

x will be normally distributed if the sample size, n 30.

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

The central limit theorem is basic to the concept of statistical inference

P ( x > 58 min s ) = P ( Z >

P ( Z > 1) = 0.5 0.3413 =0.1587

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

x = sample mean time needed to complete the job, = 50, = 8, n = 60

= 0.5- 0.4738 = 0.0262

= P( -0.97 < Z 1.94) = 0.3340 + 0.4738 = 0.8078

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

Eg 10.4. Assuming that the marks obtained by students taking Business

What is the probability that the mark of a randomly

P ( x > 72) = P ( Z >

= 0.5- 0.4332 = 0.0668

What is the probability that the mark of a randomly selected

What is the probability that the mean mark of a randomly

= P( 0.88 < z < 2.65)

What is the probability that the mean mark of a random sample

= P( -1.77< Z < 1.77)

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

success ( p ) , known as sample proportion is determined. The frequency distribution and

The standard error is written as

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

And conversion of p to z using z =

more than 18 students are not local residents?

between 22 and 24 are not local residents?

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

Chapter Eleven: Estimation

Note : sample standard deviation, s = 3.97

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

Confidence Interval : It is an interval estimate for which there is a specified degree of

mean( Population standard deviation is know

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

We can make use of the t table with d.f.=infinity

Z 0.005 = t0.005, =2.576 = 2.58(2 decimal places)

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

11.5 Characteristics of Students t distribution

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

Example 11.6 A random sample of 10 packets of chocolate bars were selected

508 gm, 500 gm,

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

x = 499.6 gm And s = 7.92 gm

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

11.6 Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion

Condition: It is appropriate to use Z when

o Example 11.7: A sample of 500 nursing applications included 60 for men.

Here = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10, and

Sample proportion = 60 / 500 = 0.12.

n p = 60 > 5andn q = 440 > 5 , So it is appropriate to use Z

0.024 = 0.096 to 0.144

The sample size, n

QBM101 Module 3 :CHAPTER 10,11 and 13

The variability in the population, usually estimated by s

The desired level of confidence.

is the limits of the estimate or known as sampling error denoted by