CONTENT

Abstract 1

Chapter 1

1.1 Introduction 2

1.2 Statement of Problem 4

1.3 Description of Study Area 4

Chapter 2: Literature Review 6

2.1 Climate Change 6

2.1.1 Implications for Ecological System 6

2.1.2 Relation between Climatic Anomalies & Insect Outbreaks 9

2.1.2.1 Diapause & Winter Mortality: Fate of Insects with Changing Climate 15

2.2.1.2 Relation of Insect outbreaks with other factors 16

2.2 Alnus nepalensis 17

Chapter 3: Justification of Study 18

Chapter4: Objectives of Study 19

Chapter 5: Scope & Limitation of Study 20

5.1 Scope of Study 20

5.2 Limitations 20

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Chapter 6: QECC Approach 21

Chapter 7: Methodology 22

7.1 Research Elements 22

7.2 Research Steps 22

7.3 Statistical Tools 23

7.4 Sample size 23

7.5 Sources of Information 23

7.5.1 Primary data 23

7.5.1.1 Quadrate Sampling 24

7.5.1.2 Interview with famers and technical officers 24

7.5.2 Secondary data 24

7.6 Site Selection Criteria 24

7.7 Data Analysis 24

Chapter 8: Result & Discussion 25

8.1 Insect infestation at study sites 25

8.1.2 Insect causing infestation 29

8.2 People's perception to changing climate in Ilam 31

8.3 Climatic Analysis 33

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 8.3.1 Temperature 33

8.3.2 Rainfall 39

8.4 Discussion 41

Chapter 9: Conclusion & Recommendation 44

9.1 Conclusion 44

9.2 Recommendation 45

10. References 46

Annexes 58

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 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Name of Figure Page No.

1 Development time of insect depending on temperature 14

2 Relationship between rate of population growth of insects and temperature of four insect species
14

3 Drought influences on host plants, phytophagous insects and their natural enemies leading to insect
outbreaks 15

4 QECC Diagram showing major aspects of research approach 21

5 Diagram showing degree of infestation in Utis at sampling sites 27

6 Diagram showing amount of infested trees at Okhre 27

7 Diagram showing amount of infested trees at Balangau 28

8 Diagram showing amount of infested trees at Kanyam Tea Estate 28

9 Diagram showing amount of infested trees at Sankhejung 29

10 Diagram showing infestation in Utis at 4 study sites 29

11 High infestation in Utis Tree (Scarabaeidae in inset) 30

12 Number of people with variable perceptions to the various evidences of climate change 33

13 Mean annual temperature of 20 years at Ilam meteorological station 34

14 Mean annual temperature of 20 years at Kanyam meteorological station 34

15 Temperature variation in Ilam meteorological station in 20 years 35

16 Temperature changes in Kanyam meteorological station in 20 years 35

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17 Temperature trend of 20 years in wet season at Ilam meteorological station 36

18 Temperature trend of 20 years in wet season at Kanyam meteorological station 37

19 Temperature trend of winter months in 20 years at Ilam meteorological station 37

20 Temperature trend of winter months in 20 years at Kanyam meteorological station 38

21 Mean annual rainfall of 20 years at Ilam meteorological station 39

22 Mean annual rainfall of 20 years at Kanyam meteorological station 39

23 Trend of mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall in 20 years at Ilam meteorological
station 40

24 Trend of mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall in 20 years at Kanyam meteorological
station 41

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Name of Table Page No.

1 Comparison of degree of insect infestations in commonly found tree species 25-26

2 People's perception about climate change and its evidences 31-32

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ACRONYMS

DHM: Department of Hydrology & Meteorology

GoN: Government of Nepal

HMG: His Majesty Government

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

FAO: Food & Agricultural Organization

GCM: General Circulation Models

HDR: Human Development Report

NEF: New Economics Foundation

6
 Abstract

Forest ecosystem, being one of the major portions of biome, is facing permutation of impacts due
to changing climate. Insect infestations are one of the major threats to forest which in many
parts of the world has been triggered by the temperature and rainfall anomalies. The study of
Utis (Alnus nepalensis), a pioneer woody vegetation-prominently found in the hills of Ilam
district, showed them to be highly affected by the beetle outbreaks in the study period. The beetle
of the Order Scarabaeidae has substantially been damaging the Utis tree. Results from quadrate
sampling showed 6% of high infestation and 94% of medium infestation in Utis. The study of
climate in Ilam explicitly indicates increasing annual mean temperature with the decreasing
trend in the annual rainfall. The study at four different elevations, where Utis were dominantly
found, however showed no staggering differences in the result in terms of insect outbreaks. Utis
at all study sites in Ilam district were infested with common trend that left them with low utility-
a future threat to the economy of farmers- in their money-spinning market of plywood. The
increased annual mean temperature presumably have shortened the period of life cycle of beetles
- hence increasing their population - and decreased annual rainfall have proliferated the
physiological stress of Utis-hence favouring insect attacks to it. One of the major assumptions of
the study is the trend in winter temperature that has decreased the hibernating periods of insects,
hence increasing their rates of survival. Most of the local farmers were swayed with the
changing climate and they feared of them to be enduring. They showed a great concern to
improvise their farming tactics to recover any impoverishments in the days ahead.

7
 Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Background
Climate change is not skeptical anymore. There are array of evidences to suggest that changes in
climate are taking place globally with varying degrees of impacts (IPCC, 2007). Climate change
triggered by global warming is expected to have widespread consequences such as sea-level rise
and possible flooding of low-lying areas; melting of glaciers and sea ice; changes in rainfall
patterns with implications for floods and droughts; and more climatic extremes (especially high
temperatures). These effects will have major impacts on ecosystems, health, water resources and
key economic sectors such as agriculture and fishery. The uncertainties brought about by climate
change in turn can increase the hardship in the lives of human through extreme and unexpected
natural events. Climate change certainly is evident and it would only increase the disaster risks .

Global warming has already become a reality for many marginal communities around the world.
According to NEF (2003) rising tides have cut one of the Carteret atolls off Papua New Guinea
in half, salinising soils and drinking water supplies, and forcing the island's 1,500 inhabitants to
rely on food aid from the mainland. The government of Tuvalu is making provisions for the
gradual relocation of its low-lying population to New Zealand. NEF (2003) predicts further
hazards – harsher droughts, stronger windstorms, more frequent floods, and greater exposure to
disease – to follow.

So far, the impacts of global environmental change have been largely discussed with emphasis
on water and water related fields. Glacier melt or sea level rise are in the focus because the
evidence of global warming is seen clearly in retreating glaciers (Mool et al., 2001) or on rising
tides, which are being monitored with keen interest globally. However, the impact of rising
temperature has its implication in many other areas of ecosystem and subsequently on the well-
being of the human society. For example, migrating plant species, shortening of ripening period
of crops, and increased instances of diseases, are some of the impacts that have been seen
affecting the farming community.

There is increasing evidence which suggests that forest or woodland which presently cover about
a third of land surface of the earth will be profoundly affected by the climate change (FAO,
2007). The evidences are more pronounced and appear early in the temperate regions where a
slight increase in average temperature can lead to visible changes. In Alaska and Canada, for
example, increased temperature has accelerated the reproduction and increased the winter
survival and geographic range of insect pests that may make forests more vulnerable to fire by
killing more trees (Kristie et al. 2007). Insect infestations are predicted to increase with change
in the global environmental change and can cause rapid changes in vegetation with concomitant
changes also in microclimate (Classen et al. 2005).

Climate change has also been seen as responsible for declining number of plant species
worldwide. Changes in crop phenology provide important evidence of responses to recent
regional climate change (IPCC, 2007). Seasonal variations are seen across the world with
varying degree of impacts to plants. Over the past decades, there has been a positive trend in the

8
advancement of spring season across the Northern Hemisphere (Schwartz et al. 2006). Shifting
seasonal patterns of abiotic conditions and resource availability affect the timing of phenological
events, such as reproduction and migration of various organisms (Chadwick et al. 2006).
Consequently, the environmental change will have direct impacts on insects and one may
imagine insects to response faster to these changes than other organisms due to their higher
proximity to climate. A recent study indicated that, on one hand, 13–85% of butterflies and other
invertebrates could be threatened with extinction under climate change within 50 years
(Hellmann & Sanders, 2007). On the other hand, evidences of increasing mosquito-borne
diseases in higher altitudes due to emerging climate change have also been recorded. Health of
people might get worsened in even temperate regions by the insect-related diseases (Epstein et
al. 1998).

Climate change is altering the productivity of soil, reducing the crop-resilience, and increasing
the plant diseases across the globe. FAO (2005) warns that climate change would lead to an
increase in lands that are arid and lands with moisture stress with particular warning to
developing world.

Temperature observations in Nepal from 1977-1994 show a general warming trend where the
temperature differences are most pronounced during the dry winter season, and least during the
height of the monsoon Warming at higher elevations in the northern part of the country is
significantly greater than at lower elevations in the south (Agrawala et al. 2003). The impact of
rising temperature has been seen in retreating glaciers of Himalayas. The long term
consequences of retreating glaciers have been projected. ICIMOD’s study indicate that if the
trend of glaciers retreat continues at current rate and if glacial lakes continue to expand, the
future of Nepal’s potential to produce hydroelectricity will be seriously affected during the dry
period when the rivers get water from the melting snow (Mool et. al. 2001). When the glaciers
become too small most of the snow-fed rivers will get low flow due to loss of snow reserve and
it will also be a potential hazard resulting in GLOF. However, the impact of climate change is
not restricted to the high altitude only. The rise in temperature and its subsequent impacts on
local climate must have happened at lower altitudes as well. The impacts are difficult to monitor
or identify because they are not as evident as melting of snow and further the rise in temperature
is comparably less noticeable at lower altitudes. It is important to begin exploring the impacts of
climatic anomalies at lower altitudes mainly due to higher concentration of population and
higher diversity of ecosystems supporting multiple economic activities. One of the indications of
climate change that could be observed is the rise in the cases of insect outbreaks on plants.

Insect pests and diseases routinely affect the health of trees and have an important role in forest
dynamics. Occasionally, insect populations grow rapidly to damaging proportions and major
disease outbreaks occur. Such abrupt outbreaks are held due to several factors. Boa (2003) have
argued temperature to be one of the major abiotic factors to accelerate sudden outbreaks of
insects but they last long if other factors such as soil conditions, water, chemicals like pesticides
and others become favourable to the outbreaks.

This study intends to explore insect outbreaks on Utis (Alnus nepalensis) in the hills of Ilam
district and examine if the trend can be attributed to climate change, because a warmer climate is
likely to affect the incidence and severity of pest and disease outbreaks in native forests and

9
plantations. Firstly, changes in average or extreme values of climate variables can affect the life
cycles of pest populations and the severity of disease. Secondly, increased summer temperatures
are likely to accelerate the development rate and reproductive potential of insect pests, while
warmer winters will increase over-winter survival (Old & Stone, 2005).

Alnus nepalensis called Utis in Nepal, Maibau in Burma, and Indian or Nepalese alder in
English, is one of 35 species of Alder worldwide. It is one of the native woody vegetations of
Nepal. It is one of 15 genera of trees that fix nitrogen but are not in the legume family. Utis is a
deciduous or semi-deciduous tree with a straight trunk that may reach up to 30 m in height and
60 cm (occasionally to 2 m) in diameter. The bark is dark green or grey, often with yellowish
patches and short, raised lenticels. The leaves, which are frequently damaged by insects, are
alternate, elliptical, 6-20 cm long, 5-10 cm wide, entire, denticulate or sinuate. The upper leaf
surface is dull or shiny dark green, the lower is pale with dot-like, yellow-brown scales
(www.winrock.org/forestry/factnet.htm). Utis is very susceptible to be attacked by defoliators
(Oreina sp., Anomala sp.) (www.winrock.org/forestry/factnet.htm).The study intended to
observe the activities of insects in Alnus nepalensis and its relation with increasing temperature.

1.2 Statement of Problem

Alnus nepalensis is well known as a species that gives some stability to slopes that tend to slip
and erode. In Burma, Alnus nepalensis has been effectively used to reforest abandoned taungya
areas (www.winrock.org/forestry/factnet.htm). Cardamom is planted as under-story crop of A.
nepalensis forest in eastern Nepal including about 80% of cardamom plantations in Ilam District
(Ghimire, 1985). On terraced slopes in Nagaland State, India, Alnus nepalensis is commonly
used for poles and interplanted with crops such as maize, barley, chili, etc.
(www.winrock.org/forestry/factnet.htm). The trees provide fuelwood, green leaf manure, and
help in soil conservation. Farmers in India cultivate Alnus nepalensis on the berms (mounded
earth borders) of crop fields (www.winrock.org/forestry/factnet.htm). Alnus nepalensis has been
increasingly used in making plywood and therefore is benefitting the owners financially.

Alnus nepalensis has been increasingly affected by the defoliators in many parts of Nepal. The
Ilam district where Alnus nepalensis is widely found also has been affected by insects,
particularly in recent years. The study aims to relate this dire change with the climatic anomaly.
The study is confined in the Ilam District of Nepal where Alnus nepalensis has tremendous
economic value due to its use as a shade for Cardamom plants, a major source of fuelwood for
local population (Lamichhaney, 1995), and plywood manufacturing-which is considered highly
profit-making sector of the region. The study would help to examine insect outbreak as a case to
understand the impact of emerging climate stress.

1.3 Description of the Study Area

Ilam district lies in the eastern part of Nepal at an altitudinal range from 150 to 3700 masl. Ilam
is geologically diverse in nature with majority of population depending on agriculture. . The
district has an area of 1714 square kilometers and population of 2, 82, 822 (according to 2001
census). The four sites selected for study were Balangao (1200-1300m), Okhre (1300-1400m),
Kanyam (1500-1600m) and Sankhejung (1700-1900m). These sites were selected on the basis of

10
their altitudinal variations in order to examine the influence of altitude in relation to insect
outbreaks.

Map 1: Study areas in Ilam District shown in circles

11
 Chapter 2: Literature Review
2.1 Climate Change
Global warming and resulting climate impact have become a reality. According to Banskota et
al. (2007) out of the 10 warmest years of the last 125 years, nine were recorded during the last
decade. With a mean global temperature of 14.5°C, 2005 was the second warmest year of the last
125 years. Lovejoy & Hannah (2005) have found clear evidences for substantial variations in the
Earth’s climate, both globally and regionally, that range from years to many millennia. The
warming of the earth is expected to affect other parameters of climate such as spatial distribution
and amount of precipitation and its seasonal pattern. There are increased understanding of how
projected impacts have emerged the sensitive areas. A study by Chinese Scientists (Liu et al.
1998) show that the climate has generally been warming during this century and precipitation has
generally been increasing over the last 30 years in Tibetan plateaus. In much of the Indian
subcontinent global warming is likely to enhance the hydrological cycle and intensify severity of
floods (Banskota et al. (2007). Moench & Dixit (2004) also suggest that there are clear
indications of global warming occurring in the Indian Subcontinent. Studies show that an
average temperature increasing approximately 0.5ºC annually with greater increases during the
winter (1.13ºC) and the post monsoon period (0.89ºC) is likely.

Similarly the impacts on the broader ecology and how organisms would respond to changing
temperature regime have been documented by scientists and researchers. Haslett (1997) has
reported that the increase in greenhouse gases is expected to have great impact on climate and
very important implications for the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem, especially in
the mountains.

2.1.1 Implications for ecological systems

Broadly speaking, the ecosystems are the results of existing climate of the area. Diverse climatic
condition results in diverse ecological settings as has been seen in the Himalayan region. Within
a short horizontal distance of less than 200 kilometers, Nepal has more than 118 ecosystems due
to its topographic variation, which in turn has produced all possible climates found on the surface
of earth (HMG, 2002). When varieties of climates are present in a small area the transition from
one type of climate to next is experienced often as one move from one elevation or aspect to the
next. Any change in existing climate of a particular area also changes the transition between the
two regions, which has profound impacts on the entire setting of ecological equilibrium vis-á-vis
biotic-abiotic relationship of the area. Banskota et al. (2007) reports that with increasing global
warming, species and ecosystems are likely to shift from lower to higher latitudes and altitudes.
Temperatures decrease by altitude at the rate of 5-10°C/km across various mountains of the
world. Species would need to migrate upward in order to survive. However, the upward
movement of alpine species occurring near mountain peaks is likely to be restricted by the lack
of space and soil. Some of the important alpine species of the Himalaya that may face immediate
extinction includes the oak Quercus semecarpifolia (Singh et al. 1997), birch (Betula utilis),
some rhododendrons, several herbs of medicinal value, and mammals like pikas, brown bears,
and snow leopards ( Banskota et al. 2007).

A FAO framework report (2007) suggests that agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are all sensitive
to climate. Therefore their production processes – whether for food, feed, fiber, beverage, energy
or industrial crops, or for livestock, poultry, fish or forest products –are likely to be impacted by

12
climate change. In general, impacts in temperate regions are expected to be positive, and those in
tropical regions negative, although there is still considerable uncertainty about how projected
changes will play out locally, and projected impacts could also be altered by adoption of risk
management measures and adaptation strategies that strengthen preparedness and resilience.

Epstein & Mills (2005) warn that agriculture is to face warming, more extremes and more
diseases. More drought and flooding under the new climate, and accompanying outbreaks of
crop pests and diseases can affect yields, nutrition, food prices and political stability. Chemical
measures to limit infestations are costly and unhealthy.

Several studies have described the effects of climate change on plant species. Malcolm & Pitelka
(2000) note that changing temperature may cause many plant species to alter their ecological
distributions. These shifts in major vegetation types due to global warming parallel the responses
of the individual species that comprise these ecosystems. Thus, with global warming, shifts in
the distributions of individual species are expected — in particular, a general poleward
movement of distributions. Species have shifted their distributions in the past in response to
changing climates; however, estimates of the rate of warming suggest that it may occur relatively
quickly, some 10 times faster than the warming at the end of the recent glacial maximum, for
example. It is not known whether species will be able to keep up with the rapidly shifting
climatic zones.

Siddiqui (1997) finds that a temperature rise by global warming would cause the existing forests
to move towards more northerly/southerly latitudes and up elevational gradient from their
present locations. High temperature and carbon dioxide concentration would also enhance the
activities of insect herbivores and plant pathogens. Siddiqui (1997) in his study study of
Pakistan’s forest response to climate change reveals that in regions without temperate climate,
large climate change resulting in too hot and dry conditions may exceed the tolerance of existing
tree species and may therefore cause the death of forests. These changes will require all
concerned with promotion and development of forest resources to respond with effective
management practices to protect and maintain forest health and productivity.

Ramkrishna et al. (2003) also found that impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems include
shifts in forest boundaries by latitude and upward movement of tree lines to higher elevations;
changes in species composition and vegetation types; and an increase in net primary productivity
(NPP). Jianchu et al. (2007) find that in the eastern Himalayas, forest vegetation will expand
signifi cantly; forest productivity will increase from 1-10%; and it is expected that forest fires
and pests such as the North American pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) will
increase as dryness and warmth increase. Asch et al. (2007) suggest that many plant species will
see changes in their phenology such as trees starting leaf earlier, plants flowering earlier and
similarly many birds will breed earlier.

Human Development Report (HDR) 2006 has clearly indicated that the overall impact of climate
change on the forest ecosystems can be negative. Increases in temperature and water stress are
expected to lead to a 30% decrease in crop yields in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st
century.

13
Biological responses such as hibernation or migration of species which are sudden and
unexpected notify the story of abruptly changing climate. There is an evident sign of advancing
unfolding, blossoming, and ripening in the leaves and fruit of wild plants; and of hibernation,
migration, and breeding of wildlife in mountain regions where temperature are ascending (
Jianchu et al. 2003).

Lovejoy & Hannah (2005) have found that although most General Circulation Models (GCMs)
predict that global warming will induce the greatest changes in temperature at high latitudes, the
severest impact on biodiversity may occur in the tropics. Because moist tropical systems hold
such huge diversity, and because the vast majority of those species are thought to have narrowly
restricted niches (e.g. small elevational ranges, specific moisture requirements, single food
plant/host), the potential exists for small climatic perturbations to have a profound effect.

Macqueen & Vermeulen (2006) suggest challenges to forest-based livelihoods are numerous and
very much dependent on location due to changing climate. Loss of land for production in low
lying areas may go hand in hand with increasing pressure on land because of changes in growing
conditions or new environmental immigrants. There will be changes in the survival of indigenous
species, and new conditions for production of commercial exotics. Events such as fires, floods
and landslides will increase risks. Change and resilience elsewhere also matter. Global climate
change will affect the comparative advantage of growing timber and non-timber forest products
in different localities, with potentially major shifts in international markets ( Macqueen &
Vermulen, 2006).

Walther et al. (2002) finds evidences that indicates the warmer spring weather in Europe which
has disrupted the synchrony between winter moth (Operophtera brumata) hatching and oak bud
burst, leading to a mismatch between the peak in insect availability and the peak food demands
of great tit (Parus major) nestlings. Such disharmonization of fine-tuned events may pose
consequences for species interactions and the persistence of ecological communities across an
array of ecosystems.

Tews & Jeltsch (2004) in their study of Grewia flava, a common fleshy-fruited shrub species in
the southern Kalahari, found that despite the high resilience capacity of Grewia flava towards
drought, it may be strongly affected when rainfall decreases as predicted, or increases in
periodical fluctuations.
Paulsen (1994) suggests that when the optimal range of temperature values for a crop in a
particular region is exceeded, crops tend to respond negatively, resulting in a drop in yield. The
optimal temperature varies for different crops. Temperatures greater than 36ºC cause corn pollen
to lose viability, while temperatures higher than 20ºC depress tuber initiation and bulking in
potato.

Shibles et al. (1975) finds that high temperatures during reproductive development are
particularly injurious – for example, to corn at tasseling, to soybean at flowering, and to wheat at
grain-filling. Climate change certainly has negative impact on the forests where as deforestation
further worsens the global warming scenario by increasing burden of methane and carbon
monoxide in the atmosphere ( FAO, 2007).

14
A report from Sri Lanka suggested that tea yield, which is major foreign exchange to country, is
very prone to decline due to projected rainfall patterns as by increasing temperature.
(www.aiaccproject.org/meetings/Manila_04/Day3/peris_nov4doc.doc).

National Parks Conservation Association in USA (2008) reports that blossoms and leaves are
appearing earlier in the spring, birds are migrating and reproducing earlier, and winters are no
longer cold enough to control insect and other pests.

2.1.2 Relations between Climatic Anomalies & Insect Outbreaks

Lives of insects are highly dependent on climatic components such as temperature, rainfall, and
humidity. Any change in one of these parameters can subsequently alter the insect population
and its behavior. For example, Hedden (1987) noted that raised temperatures may produce more
generations of some insects in a year, since they have high reproductivity potential, making them
likely to adapt and evolve at least an order of magnitude more quickly than the current 30- 100-
year life cycle of forest tree species serving as their hosts.

Lombardero et al. (2000) suggest that temperature has broad effects on the physiology and
behavior of virtually all insects in all developmental stages. Temperature influences metabolic
rate, flight activity, reproduction, nutrition, development, and survival. The ability to survive
annual temperature minima can be a critical determinant of insect distribution limits.

Williams et al. (2000) have found that as poikilotherms, insects grow as a function of
temperature: their growth rates, generation times, fecundity, and intrinsic survivorship are
primarily temperature-dependent. Battisti (2008) suggests that the number of insects per unit area
is inversely related to latitude and elevation and thus can be assumed that the increase of
temperature would allow the spreading of insect species northward and upward, especially for
those species that have wide ranges, as many forest pests have. Dale (1997) suggests that insect
outbreaks are a function of the prevailing moisture and temperature conditions, insects’
physiological responses to extremes, and plant stress.

Wright (2007) has suggested that mountain pine beetle is damaging Canadian forests in higher
rates than in the past. The increasing infestation by mountain pine beetle is partly the result of
beetle itself but also the function of climate change. Beetle epidemic in Canadian forests is very
probably a strong harbinger of climate change (Wright 2007). Similarly changes in insect timing
can be very marked: Zhou et al. (1995) reported that a 1 °C increase in temperature could
advance aphid migration by up to 19 days. Harvell et al. (2002) suggest that there is nonlinear
relation between the temperature and growth of insects, and therefore the effect of climate
warming on insect growth rate will depend not only on changes in mean temperature, but also on
temperature variability.

Insect outbreaks in forests not only are influenced by warmer climate but also by the dominance
and aging of plant species present in the forest area. Netherer et al. (2002) suggest that
populations of Spruce Bark Beetles (Ips typographus), the most severe forest pest in Central
Europe, have expanded and intensified due to favorable climate change and more frequently
occurring extreme weather conditions, and may increase in severity in the future. The situation
has been aggravated by the fact that, after the World War II, most of the forest stands in Central
Europe were planted mainly with spruce. The total area of such plantations in Austria alone

15
amounts to 1 million hectares. These stands are now approaching a critical age where they are
attacked readily by the beetle; therefore an abundance of appropriate brood material is available
to support devastating outbreaks of this bark beetle species.

Similarly insects can affect the trees also with the decrease in tree's immune power due to
climatic conditions; increase in temperature being one of them. Hunter & Price (1998) have
noted climate as a strong factor to influence insect population and the physiological capacity of
trees to resist attacks by insects.

Insects if get favourable environment can reproduce into large numbers than expected and
thereafter increase their activities especially on their hosts. Dunn & Crutchfield (2008) have
noted two dominant environmental factors influencing insect infestations which are changes in
temperature and moisture. Changing insect-host relationships and non-host species impacts, such
as predation and disease, also play essential roles. Since insects are cold-blooded or
poikilothermic, they are extremely sensitive to temperature, being more active at warmer
temperatures. As winter temperatures increase, there are fewer freezing conditions that keep
insect populations in check. Shortened winters, increasing summer temperatures, and fewer late-
spring frosts correlate to increased insect feeding, faster growth rates, and rapid reproduction.

Williams and Liebhold (2002) in study of trends of beetle outbreaks in the forests of the United
States suggest that one expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in
geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Area of outbreaks by
Southern pine beetle has remarkably increased in the United States with higher temperature and
generally is moving northward. Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with
increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation.

Casola et al. (2005) in their study of impacts of climate change in Washington note that pests
may become more prevalent, as higher temperatures enhance reproduction rates. Milder winters
could increase survival rates for insect larva and adult reproductive rates may increase, allowing
pests to increase their abundance. Pests could also capitalize on heat- or moisture-stressed
forests, as these trees are more susceptible to infestation. Looking at the past decade, we see a
potential harbinger of climate change impacts as the observed warming trend has been correlated
with more frequent and severe outbreaks of bark beetles in the forests of the PNW and British
Columbia.

Kehlenbeck & Schrader (2007) find that climate change will have essential effects on plants and
plant pests including pathogens, influencing their establishment, spread and reproduction rate.
This may cause changes of ecosystems and influence for example the balance of existing
complex interactions between plants and plant pests. As a consequence, biodiversity could be
directly or indirectly affected.

Climate change resulting in increased temperature could impact crop and forest insect
populations in several complex ways. Petzoldt & Seaman (2006) suggest that even if some
climate change temperature effects might tend to depress insect populations, most researchers
seem to agree that warmer temperatures in temperate climates will result in more types and
higher populations of insects.

16
Battisti et al. (2000) conducted a study between the periods of 1985-1992 and found that there
was a sudden outbreak of insects in the Southern Alps during which the populations developed
an annual life cycle and grew exponentially, causing repeated defoliations, which ultimately
caused tree death in over hundreds of hectares. The most likely reasons for such a change in the
life cycle of the insect have been explored through an analysis of the local climate, which
showed that the years preceding the outbreak were characterized by an abnormally warm and dry
weather during the feeding period of the larvae.

Hanely et al. (2001) have found that the two species of bug native to Alaska seemed set to cause
increasing amounts of economic damage due to global warming. The western black-headed
budworm Acleris gloverana damages spruce trees by laying its eggs in buds tied shut with silk.
When the larvae hatch out, they eat the spruce needles and can kill the tree. The beetle’s life
cycle has halved from two years to one recently, meaning more beetles, whilst more trees are
becoming stressed due to warmer, drier summers ( Hanely et al. 2001). The effects of such pests
can damage 65% of the world’s northern forest due to global warming ( Hanely et al. 2001). In
the last five years, 40,000 ha. of Alskan Forests have been affected.

Battles et al. (2006) studied the impact of climate change on the California forests and found that
forest pests are likely to expand their geographic and potentially their host ranges under
increasing temperature. Furthermore, increasing summer drought conditions will leave host trees
more susceptible to forest pests that tend to attack less vigorous trees. These include root
diseases, such as Armillaria spp. and many bark beetles (such as Ips spp.). While tree species
will slowly expand their ranges further north and into higher elevations, forest pests are likely to
exhibit faster range expansions. On the other hand, decreasing snow levels may decrease
incidence of overwintering insects by causing increased winter mortality. Likewise, pathogens
that thrive under snow insulation will also decrease in incidence (such as snow mold).

Hogg et al. (2001) have studied climatic variation and insect defoliation in Canadian aspen forest
during the period of 1950-2000. They found that defoliation have remarkably increased by insect
infestations and diseases after the year 1998, which was the warmest year in the region.

Outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in the forests of Western Canada were examined by Moore et
al. (2005). They concluded that winter mortality of mountain pine beetle has readily decreased
thus increasing the number of beetles and damaging the forest. The increasing temperature in the
region for more than two decades is the major reason behind the lower winter mortality.

Fleming and Candau (1998) report that insect outbreaks are a major disturbance factor in
Canadian forests. If global warming occurs, the disturbance patterns caused by insects may
change substantially, especially for those insects whose distributions depend largely on climate
such as spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) which already have been turning lethal in
the region.
Community interactions among insect species are also key factor to catalyze insect outbreaks.
Stireman et al. (2005) for example suggest that climate change will increase frequency and
intensity of insect outbreaks by directly disturbing community interaction. They have suggested
that parasitism among insects might increase with climatic changes.

17
Kamata et al. (2002) studied the dieback incidents of oaks and concluded that the oak dieback
epidemic in Japan probably resulted from the warmer climate that occurred from the late 1980s
which made possible the fateful encounter of P. quercivorus with Q. cripsula by allowing the
beetle to extend its distribution to more northerly latitudes and higher altitudes. Future global
warming will possibly accelerate the overlapping of the distributions of P. quercivorus and Q.
crispula with the result that oak dieback in Q. crispula will become more prevalent in Japan.

Insect pests have also been studied in agricultural plants. Crop yield has been affected by insects.
Peng et al. (2004) in a research on the relationship between increasing temperature and rice yield
by using data from irrigated field experiments from 1979-2003 at International Rice Research
Institute Farm in Philippines found that temperature has increased by 0.35°C to1.13°C resulting
10% decline in rice productivity, also by the increased pest activity. Rosenzweig et al. (2000)
suggest that since the 1970s, U.S. agriculture has achieved enhanced productivity, but has also
experienced greater variability in crop yields, prices, and farm income. The changes in variability
are, in part, climate-related, either directly (through extreme weather events) or indirectly (due to
agricultural pests and diseases). Pest and disease occurrences often coincide with extreme
weather events and with anomalous weather conditions, such as early or late rains, and decreased
or increased humidity, which by themselves can alter agricultural output. Recent climate trends,
such as increased nighttime and winter temperatures, may be contributing to the greater
prevalence of crop pests.

Kiritani (2006) in study of the impacts of global climate change on arthropods in Japan finds that
increasing damage due to rice- and fruit-infesting bugs, their simultaneous outbreaks and the
poleward geographic spread observed for six species may be triggered by global warming. The
winter mortality of adults of Nezara viridula and Halyomorpha halys is predicted to be reduced
by 15% by each rise of 1°C. More than 50 species of butterflies showed northward range
expansions and ten species of previously migrant butterflies established on Nansei Islands during
1966–1987. Global warming may be responsible for the recent decline in abundance of Plutella
xylostella and the increase in Helicoverpa armigera and Trichoplusiani. In general, global
warming may work in favour of natural enemies (except for spiders) by increasing the number of
generations more than in their host species (see Kirtani 2006). Fleming & Tatchell (1995) in
study of crop pests in Britain found that the flight period of five species of aphids has become 3-
6 days earlier as a result of climate change. Dukes & Mooney (1999) in study of relation between
invasive species and global climate change find models which suggest that warmer temperatures
will decrease the generation time of insects, increase their winter survival, and cause species to
shift their ranges poleward and up in elevation.

Evolutionary changes are also seen in insects as a result of increased temperature (Pearson &
Dawson, 2003). Thomas et al. (2001) who examined insect species that have expanded their
geographical ranges in Britain over the past 20 years found that two species of bush cricket
(Conocephalus discolor and Metrioptera roeselii) were seen to have increased fractions of
longer-winged (more dispersive) individuals in recently founded populations, whilst two
butterfly species (Hesperia comma and Aricia agestis) have increased the variety of habitat types
that they can colonize. Sparks & Menzel (2002) have reported that the UK butterfly fauna seem
to have been affected by warming of climate. Trends to earlier first and peak appearance have

18
been noted, and flight periods have been lengthened in multibrooded species, suggesting
additional generations achieved in a year, and most of this correlates well with temperature.

Climate change will also have direct effects on the physiology of both plants and plant-eaters
(herbivores). Ayres (1993) suggest that anticipated patterns of climate change can induce
surprisingly large effects on interactions between plants and their herbivores for example a minor
increase in average temperature (1 degree Celsius) altered the interactions between mountain
birch and a principal insect herbivore enough to triple the potential rate of population growth of
the insect.

Many insects are active in summer and inactive in winter however this trend may be altered with
substantial temperature rise in summer and winter seasons. Virtanen & Neuvonen (1999) have
studied the performance of moth larvae on birch in relation to temperature in Finland and have
concluded the potential frequency and area of Epirrita autumnata (moth larvae) outbreaks in the
continental parts of Fennoscandia in Finland would become larger than at present if winter
temperatures increase as predicted where as the severity of Epirrita autumnata would probably
decrease with predicted warm temperatures of summer.

Kipfmueller et al. (2002) studied the mountain pine beetle outbreaks in forest of Idaho State of
United States and found that abnormally cool and warm temperatures are related to the mountain
pine beetle epidemics in the region. Warm temperatures may have both direct and indirect effects
on mountain pine beetle populations. Direct effects include increasing the probability of survival
of over wintering broods that can attack large numbers of hosts. Indirectly, warm temperatures
may act in concert with reduced precipitation to reduce hosts’ capacity to repel mountain pine
beetle attacks. Cold temperatures, particularly during the winter months may result in significant
over-wintering mortality of mountain pine beetle broods resulting in a temporary reduction in
beetle activity during the subsequent summer.

Studies have invariably showed influence of temperature in insects' life cycle. Different insects
have different responses to changed temperature regime however change in distribution has been
quite universal. Vanhanen et al. (2007) carried out a simulation based research in changing
distribution of defoliators with rise in temperature. The study suggested the increase in the
number of the defoliators due to shortening of their life cycles. Ferganani et al. (2008) studied
the response of ants to increasing temperature and have found that two species of ants L. picinus
and L. valdiviensis have direct relations with temperature but the sign of the relationship was
different. The increment of temperature implies an increase of L. picinus abundance but a
decrease of L. valdiviensis abundance. The reason for this result may be that the species use
different habitats ( Ferganani et. al 2008).

Many native insect species might turn into invasive species with climatic changes and therefore
varying their distribution and impacts. Millar et al. (2007) note the changes of such kinds in
Mountain Pine Beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae) east of the Continental Divide in Canada.

Rainfall also largely influences the insect outbreaks. Hulme (2005) suggests that decreased
rainfall can produce physiological stress on trees facilitating the outbreaks of forest pests

19
whereas periods of intense rainfall can increase the mortality of surface-feeding insect
herbivores.

Bale et al. (2002) suggest that insect populations are not likely to be affected by small increase or
decrease in temperature or other climatic conditions however unpredictability in climatic system
if increases can then affect insect population and activities very much. Bale et al. (2002) also
suggest that the effects of temperature on insect performance may vary on different host plants.
Climate may have less influence on species feeding on determinate compared to indeterminate
plant species. The ability of insects to deal with a range of different host plants, including low
quality ones, may indicate their ability to cope with climate change. Bale et al. (2002) have
suggested a model showing how the relative development rates (time) of an insect and its host
plant at different temperatures might set the distribution limits of host-specific insect herbivore
species (see figure: 1).

Figure 1: Development time of insect depending on temperature (Bale et al. 2002)

Savage et al. (2004) in study of relationship between temperature and rate of population growth
of insects (r max) have performed experiments to see the activity of four insect species in various
temperatures under controlled environments and found typical temperature profile at which
insects' population growth got null, optimum, boomed and again declined ( see figure: 2).

Figure 2: Relationship between rate of population growth of insects (r max) and temperature of
four insect species (Savage et al. 2004).
Insect population increases after temperature increase and decreases after crossing a threshold
value of temperature. For example Fields (1992) argues that stored-product insects and mite
pests will die in temperature above 35 ˚C and below 13 ˚C.

20
Mattson & Hack (1987) offered a set of components increasing insect's outbreak due to drought
conditions. A set of components act together to cause increment in insect outbreak triggered by
droughts (see figure: 3).

Vanhen (2008) suggest that seasonal climate patterns, particularly moisture and temperature, can
be crucial for introduced forest pathogens. To infect suitable hosts, develop a disease and
survive, correct temperature (e.g. warmer winters, milder summers) and correct moisture content
(e.g. fog, rainfall, less snow cover) at a critical season are the prerequisites.

2.1.2.1 Diapause & Winter Mortality: Fate of Insects with Changing Climate
Insects generally cannot tolerate freezing temperatures. Most species survive winter by
undergoing a state of prolonged dormancy, called diapause, which is similar to hibernation
(www.gcsaa.org). Declining day length in autumn typically triggers diapause. During diapause,
breathing and heartbeat are nearly halted, and growth and development are put on hold. To avoid
freezing, many species reduce their water content and elevate concentrations of glycerol (natural
antifreeze) in their blood (see Potter 1983). Insects cannot survive winter without diapause;
diapause is a key life history trait that ensures that an insect's life cycle is synchronized with
seasonal changes of environment (Tauber et al. 1986). Diapause gets shortened with increase in
temperature in winter. Fielding (2006) in his study of diapause strategies of grasshopper suggest
that diapause can alter with temperature variability.

Doležal & Sehnal (2002) find that warmer climate favours insect's survival in winter. In their
study of Bark beetle (Ips tygraphus) they conclude the favourable temperature as the key
component for reproduction and diapasue in Bark beetles; reproduction gets faster and diapasue
ends faster in warmer climate than optimum.

Logan and Powel (2001) have studied the adaptability of mountain pine beetles with temperature
rise and found that as temperatures warm, the thermal environment actually would become less
favorable for the mountain pine beetle until a threshold was reached, at which point the thermal
environment suddenly would become dramatically more favorable for the beetle. This prediction
is ominous in that increasing temperatures could unexpectedly release an endemic or invading
mountain pine beetle population in whitebark pine with little or no warning.

21
 Figure 3: Drought influences on host plants, phytophagous insects and their natural enemies
leading to insect outbreaks. (Mattson and Haack, 1987).

2.2.1.2 Relation of Insect outbreaks with other factors

There might be other reasons to increase insect outbreaks besides climate however climate
cannot be wholly excluded. Smith et al. (2000) suggest that climate (especially temperature),
changes in competitors and resource availability are three major factors influencing the life cycle
of insects. Lobo et al. (2007) discuss the role of altitude in determining the insect population in
mountain ecosystems. In their study of dung beetles, they conclude that rates of beetle's richness
increase or decrease with altitude both for total species and narrowly distributed species.

González-Megias (2005) studied the nature of beetles in an altitude gradient (2474m- 2940m)
and found the density of beetles increase with the increase in altitude however the density of host
plants decrease causing higher vulnerability for extinctions in beetle population at larger
proportion compared to lower altitudes. They also concluded that extinction of species are more
vulnerable at the boarder of distribution where as population is more stable at the center of the
distribution.

22
Chown & Klok (2003) argues that insect's body size differ with the altitude and hence sways
their activity. They studied the monophyletic group of weevils from  two  regions  that differ
substantially in seasonality. Their finding was different for two regions; at one the size of
weevils increased with altitude and at other reverse was true. They however concluded
temperature and resource availability to be the major two driving factors to cause variation in the
result. Hawkins & Devries (1996) suggest that body size changes across latitudinal and
altitudinal gradients. However, in insect species such as butterflies, size does not vary regularly
with elevation. Some species are larger at higher elevations, some smaller and some show no
change at all decided by the adaptive nature of them.

2.2 Alnus nepalensis

Lamichhaney (1995) finds that Alnus nepalensis- widely known in Nepal by one of its local
names, Utis- was identified by International Union of Forestry Research Organization (IUFRO)
as one of the most important tree species indigenous to Nepal. This large, deciduous or sub-
deciduous tree grows to a height of 20-35 m with a clear stem for 10-13 m. It is found naturally
in moist, cool or subtropical mountain monsoon climates, with an average annual rainfall of 500-
2500 mm and a 4-8 month dry season. Mean annual temperatures range from 13-26°C. Soils tend
to be moist and well-drained, varying from loam and loamy sand to gravel, sand, and clay. At
lower altitudes particularly, Utis occurs on moist sites, such as near rivers and in ravines, but it
will colonize rocky sites exposed by landslips, or lands abandoned following cultivation. It
occurs naturally in both pure and mixed stands (http://nzdl.sadl.uleth.ca/cgi-bin/library).

Alnus nepalensis is found in the Schima/Castanopsis forests of Ilam District (1000-2000m) of

Eastern Nepal. It is a pioneer species of degraded lands (Lamichhaney, 1995). It is dominant
along water courses and colonizes landslips (Olsson, 1983). It grows well in full light and is
moderately shade – tolerant (Storrs and Storrs, 1984). Alnus nepalensis according to Begg (1985)
is the most popular shade tree grown over cardamom in east Nepal. Besides providing shade for
the cardamom, it also supplies fuelwood for drying the crop (Lamichhaney, 1995). Excess wood
is used as a domestic fuel (Thunberg & Werner, 1981).

The major pest to attack the Alnus nepalensis is defoliators (Lamichhaney, 1995;
www.winrock.org/forestry/factnet.htm). In Kaski District of Nepal the most virulent defoliator
has been identified as Oreina aurata foriopienctata- Chrysomelidae (Lamichhaney, 1995).

23
 Chapter 3: Justification of the study

HDR (2007) of the UNDP clearly enunciates that climate change will be one of the defining
forces shaping prospects for human development during the 21st Century. It adds that through its
impact on rainfall, temperature and weather systems, and subsequently on ecology global
warming will directly affect all countries. Nobody will be immune to its consequences. The
average surface temperature of the earth has warmed by about 0.6ºC (1ºF) since the late
1800s, largely due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (Wigley,
1999). As these gases continue to accumulate, the earth's temperature is expected to continue to
rise, with models predicting an increase of 1°C to 4°C (1.8°F to 7.2°F) over the next century. A
main conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment
Report of 2007 was that it is very likely that most of the global warming during the last 50 years
is due to the increase in human-made greenhouse gases.

Climate change is no longer an argument though an issue that needs urgent actions with
comprehensive consensus among global community. The study in totality is not trying to prove
the changing climate rather trying to diminish the gap of understanding the nature and trend of
implications on ecosystem and their services brought by the climate change. For this, integrated
evidences, situation assessments, people’s response have all to be well assessed. Climate change
can have profound effects on the vegetation of several types mainly by altering the required
climatic conditions, thus increasing pests, eventually increasing the probability of plant diseases
and hence their declining population. Climate change succinctly can have adverse effects in
lower latitudes compared to the higher; the study has therefore rationale in its objectives.

Pest activities increase due to increase in temperature (Lonsdale and Gibbs 1996; Rosenzweig et
al. 2000; Vanhanen et al. 2007). The IPCC warned that it is “very likely” that pest and disease
outbreaks in forests will be increased by global warming. Climate warming can also change the
disturbance regime of forests by extending the range of some damaging insects, as observed
during the last 20 years for bark beetles in the USA (IPCC, 2007). Wildfire and extensive forest
mortality as a result of insect and disease are primary sources of unintentional carbon emissions
from forests in western United States (Stephens & Ruth, 2005), and can lead to widespread loss
of centuries’ worth of carbon storage. This effect will likely be exacerbated in coming decades
under continued warming, with increasingly severe fire years leading to what have been modeled
as widespread ‘‘brown-downs’’ for many western and eastern forest types (Westerling et al.
2006). Insect infestations in forest therefore have cause and effect relationship with climate
change.
The national communication report of Nepal has reported that there are evidences of rise in
temperature in the Himalayan region (HMG 2004). Higher the altitude the increase in
temperature is higher. Though, there are times when insect related problems in the forests have
been recognized, the evidence of insect infestation in the forest of middle mountains have been
reported by electronic media from time to time in recent years. Most of the infestation cases have
been reported from forest dominated by Alnus nepalelnsis. This study aims to examine if the
insect problems reported from Ilam district has any bearing with the change in temperature or the
humidity of the area. The study will focus on the impacts of increasing temperature and other
climatic anomalies with the instances of insect infestations in Alnus nepalensis at a particular
geographic area.

24
 Chapter 4: Objectives of Study
The objective of the study is to examine ecological responses to changing temperature and
rainfall pattern in forests of the mid hills of Nepal with specific focus on Alnus nepalensis.
The specific objectives of the study are as following:

• To examine the impacts of changing temperature and rainfall pattern on Alnus nepalensis
with reference to insect infestation.

• To understand trends of insect infestation on the Alnus nepalensis and its effect on local
users.

• To understand the responses of ecological systems vis-á-vis climatic anomaly in a

particular altitudinal gradient.

25
 Chapter 5: Scope and Limitation of the Study
5.1 Scope of the Study
Climate is the context for life on earth. Global climate change and the ripples of that change will
affect every aspect of life from municipal budgets for snowplowing to the spread of disease.
Climate is already changing, and quite rapidly. With rare unanimity, the scientific community
warns of more abrupt and greater change in the future (Epstein and Mills, 2005). With such
situation the human kind needs to develop adaptive methodologies for the resilience to setback
the detrimental consequences.

This study aims to incorporate underlying evidences contributed by the changes in temperature
and rainfall of a short period in a confined area. The scope of the study is to document the
instances of insect infestation in time and space particularly to Alnus nepalensis within a band of
1200 to 1900 meter elevation and record if any new insects have been noticed. The study will
record anecdotal evidences from local people of any new insects and document the trend of
infestation. It will document in words as well as in photographs the evidences of insect
infestation. The findings of the study later can fetch understanding of complexity of implications
posed by the global climate change which then can assist in maneuvering resilient adaptive
strategies to reciprocate on the consequences of climate change. The study also seeks to
understand the social dynamism with the changing situation, which ultimately is of the highest
priority to plan adapting climate change.

5.2 Limitations
The study was carried out using limited field visits of about a month during the rainy season in
2008. Since getting long-term data on rainfall and temperature was a problem, the study was
based on the available secondary information from the Department of Hydrology and
Meteorology, which were available from only limited areas for a limited period. Since the study
was carried out during the wet season accessibility to the sites where infestations were high
probably was difficult. Study period was also limited to a total of three months which did not
allow monitoring some of the growth and spread of the insects. Another prominent problem was
to get the records of the population of Alnus nepalensis of past years in the study sites which
could have contributed in measuring the effect of insect infestations on Alnus nepalensis in a
time gradient. Most of the study relied on secondary information and on anecdotes.

26
 Ch
hapter 6: QECC Approach
A

Figure 4: QECC Diaagram show

wing major aspects
a of reesearch app
proach

27
 Chapter 7: Methodology
7.1 Research Elements
This study designed to examine the impacts of change in rainfall and temperature on Alnus
nepalensis in relation to insect infestation has been carried out in the district of Ilam in Nepal
Research elements included an intense literature review on climate change and its ecological
implications. Insect infestation in forest tree species and its relation with climate change also
were thoroughly studied as a part of literature review.

The field works were carried out at four different sites of different elevationsduring the
monsoon of the year 2008 as insect activities cannot be traced in winters (Gray & Keena, 2005).
The primary and secondary data were collected in the field and from the published materials. The
data were analyzed using statistical operators using computer software like MS Excel and SPSS.
Results have been tabulated and discussed on the basis of finding and supportive literatures and
eventually conclusion and recommendations are depicted.

7.2 Research Steps

The study focused in areas within the range of 1200m-2000m elevations above sea level, where
meteorological stations of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal are in
operation. The temperature and rainfall record from the meteorological stations namely Ilam Tea
State (26°55’N, 87°54’E) at elevation of 1300 masl (DHM, 1991), and Kanyam Tea Estate (
26°52’N, 88°04’E) at elevation of 1678 masl (DHM, 1991) were used in the study. Besides 4
focus areas were selected for sampling of trees on the basis of altitude.
The study collected meteorological records of 20 years. The meteorological records include the
information on the annual mean temperature and monthly rainfall of two stations at Ilam and
Kanyam. The study also used information collected through interviews with the local farmers
with the objective to gather information on climatic changes and their implications to the area.
Interviews were also carried out with the local forest and agricultural officers of the government
to collect comprehensive insights on the local climate and the past-present analysis of available
vegetations, status of forest, trend in agriculture and insect-related facts.

The research is based also on quantifying the impacts caused by increasing insects in Utis trees
which eventually would contribute significantly in understanding the qualitative nature of
climatic anomalies upon Utis. Insect infestations in Utis therefore were categorized in three
groups based on the degree of impact as high, medium, and low as described below:

28
Degree of Infestation Indicators Utility

High Infestation Completely dry stems Domestic cooking and firing

Completely dry and fallen leaves No Commercial use
(No sign of photosynthetic
activity)

Innumerable holes in most of the Domestic cooking and firing

Medium Infestation leaves
Lower valuation in commercial use
Availability of dry branches such as plywood manufacturing
Less green in visibility Poor shade to Cardamom

Only some leaves with holes Higher valuation in plywood

Low Infestation Green in visibility manufacturing
Good shade to Cardamom

7.3 Statistical Tools

The statistical operations were applied in analyzing the results of quadrate sampling and
temperature and rainfall data to draw statistical diagrams. Mean of 20 year temperature and
rainfall is calculated and presented in diagram. Similarly people's opinion towards changing
climate also was tabulated and statistical diagram of the same was prepared.

7.4 Sample size

Four sites were selected with varying altitude however in desired range as per the demand of the
research problem. At every site three quadrate sampling of size 25m×25m were carried out to
sample the amount of infested trees. These samplings were based on the region where Alnus
nepalensis were available with other trees and were in the easy access of farmers. The interview
with farmers was carried out who resided near by the quadrate sampling sites. About 5 farmers
from all the sites were interviewed summed 20.

7.5 Sources of Information

As mentioned above two sources of information were used in this research viz. primary and
secondary. Information about climate change and changes in rainfall and temperature in the
study area were collected from secondary sources. The information about Ilam district and about
the forest sources were also collected from secondary sources. Information about insects and the
degree of infestation was collected from field as primary sources. The primary sources included
the respondents in the field, photographic evidences of insects and identification of the in sects
from direct communication with the experts.

7.5.1 Primary data

Primary data included the result from the quadrate sampling of trees, evidences of infestation,
degree of infestation, damage in the trees and information from the local farmers about their

29
perception and understanding about the problem. The information about insects also was a
primary data.

7.5.1.1 Quadrate Sampling

Quadrate sampling is one of the pervasive methods in ecological sampling to determine
distribution characteristics of plants in ecosystem. The technique was used in the study in order
to measure the quantity of infested trees at different sites on the basis of altitude. An area of
25m×25m quadrate was employed while sampling the trees.

7.5.1.2 Interview with farmers and technical officers

Interviews mainly focused to gather the experiences of farmers and technical officers working in
the sector of forest and agriculture in relation to the consequences of climate changes. Apart
from basic questions on Alnus nepalensis and insect affecting it, the respondents were asked their
degree of consensus on different themes related to apparent implications and evidences of
climate change. Their highest degree of agreement on the theme was given score 2, medium
agreement was given 1 and if disagreement 0 was the score. For example if a respondent got
agreed on the theme that rainfall is highly varying since some years, it was given 2 as a score and
if disagreed on the same, the result was 0 score.

7.5.2 Secondary data

The secondary data in the study are temperature and rainfall data from two meteorological
stations. Ilam Tea Estate at an elevation of 1300 masl and Kanyam Tea Estate at elevation of
1678masl were the two available meteorological stations in the study area. The temperature and
rainfall records were purchased from the DHM. The temperature and rainfall trend of 20 years
were analyzed on the basis of year against temperature and rainfall. The results have been
presented in graphs.

7.6 Site Selection Criteria

There are plenty of literatures (see literature review section 2.2.1.2) supporting the relation of
insect infestation with varying altitude. Hence four sites at different altitudes were selected to
examine the influence of altitude and insect infestation in Alnus nepalensis. The four sites were
Balangao (1200-1300m), Okhre (1300-1400m), Kanyam Tea Estate (1500-1600m) and
Sankhejung (1700-1900m). The aim was to see the causes of infestation, if it was, not only with
temperature but with other factors as well. However altitude plays major role in temperature
variation but altitude as suggested by many literatures can be key independent reason to
accelerate or retard insect infestations in forest.

7.7 Data Analysis and presentation

Both primary and secondary data were separately tabulated and analyzed. Later on their
interrelations were studied, interpreted and synthesized. The results have been given in tables
and graphs. Visible evidences have been presented in pictures.

30
 Chapter 8: Result & Discussion
8.1 Insect infestation at study sites

Alnus nepalensis (Utis) is the dominant tree species in the study area. The other commonly found
trees species are Malato(Macaranga pustulata), and Chilaune(Schima wallichii). Alnus
nepalensis grows naturally in wetter slopes where they are planted by people to use as shade in
Cardamom farming and for timber and fuelwood. Insect infestations in Alnus nepalensis were
dominant at all four study sites of various altitudes. Table: 1 shows the comparison among
commonly found trees and insect infestations on them at all study sites based on 25m × 25m
quadrate sampling of trees which was performed three times at different locations of the study
sites.

Site: Okhre Altitude: 1300-1400m

Tree Species Degree of Infestation (Defoliation)

High Medium Low

Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T

1. Utis 1 0 1 2 12 13 15 40 0 0 0 0

2. Malato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 4

3. Chilaune 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Site: Balangau Altitude: 1200-1300m

Tree Species Degree of Infestation (Defoliation)

High Medium Low

Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T

1. Utis 0 1 0 1 13 17 14 44 0 0 0 0

2. Malato 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

3. Chilaune 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31
 Site: Kanyam Tea Estate Altitude: 1500-1600m

Tree Species Degree of Infestation (Defoliation)

High Medium Low

Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T

1. Utis 1 1 1 3 14 17 16 47 0 0 0 0

2. Malato 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 2 5

3. Chilaune 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Site: Sankhejung(Nepaltar) Altitude: 1700-1900m

Tree Species Degree of Infestation (Defoliation)

High Medium Low

Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T Q1 Q2 Q3 T

1. Utis 2 1 2 5 16 17 15 48 0 0 0 0

2. Malato 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 2

3. Chilaune 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table 1: Comparison of degree of insect infestations in commonly found tree species

The result shows insect infestation very evident in Utis. Highly infested or completely defoliated
Utis were almost dead. Every Utis at sampling sites were infested by insects resulting in poor
tree condition and increased probability of dying. Medium infestation occurred in most of the
Utis trees (see figure: 5) at every sampling sites.

32
 Figure 5:: Diagram shhowing degrree of infestaation in Utis at samplingg sites

The otheer commonly y found tree species Mallato was sligghtly infestedd where as Chilaune
C waas not
infested ata all. The four
f study sites were com mpared on thhe basis of altitudes
a to see the degrree of
infestatioons with varyying altitudee in relation to
t increasingg temperaturre.
The Okhhre site (130 00-1400m elevation) in each three quadrate
q sam
mpling had infested
i Utiss and
very slighhtly infested
d Malato. Moost of the Uttis were infeested leavingg some comppletely defolliated
and dry (see
( figure:6)

gure 6: Diagrram showingg amount off infested treees at Okhre

Fig

Balangauu site was nearest

n to thhe meteoroloogical stationn of Ilam. The
T site wass in the rangge of
1200-13000m elevatiion. The saampling of trees show wed a high number of medium scale
ompletely deefoliated Utiis was rare (see figure: 7).
infestatioonwhereas co 7

33
 Figu
ure 7: Diagraam showing amount of innfested treess at Balangauu

Kanyam tea estate is in the altitude rangge of 1500-1600m. Thee tree samppling at diffferent
locationss of this site showed sim
milar results compared
c too the other siites at slighttly lower altiitude.
Some of the Utis treees were com mpletely defooliated by inssect infestatiion. Howevver, about 500% of
the Utis tree was parrtially defoliiated (see figgure: 8).

Figure 8: Diagram showing amouunt of infesteed trees at Kanyam

K Tea Estate
E

The fourrth site, Sankkhejung is at a the range of 1700-19000m elevatioon above whhich Utis is not a
dominantt species in Ilam districtt. The site iss in the higheest range off altitude amoong the sam
mpling
sites. Thee infestation
n at this site was so intennse that somme trees havee died. Utis was dominaant in
the region and domin nantly infesteed as well (ssee figure 9).

34
 Figuree 9: Diagram
m showing am
mount of inffested trees at
a Sankhejunng

The studdy sites at diffferent altituude do not shhow substanntial differennces in resultt, however insect
i
infestatioon was high where Utis was dominaantly availabble. High inffestation waas more prevvalent
at higherr altitude sam
mpling sites compared
c too lower altituude samplingg sites (see figure
f 10).

Figu
ure 10: Diaggram showinng infestationn in Utis at 4 study sites

8.1.2 Inssects causing

g infestation
n

Insects infecting
i Uttis at all four
fo sites wasw identifieed as that of o the famiily Scarabaaeidae
(Coliopteera: Beetles)). Accordingg to the locaal farmers thhis insect haad not been seen in thee area
before. Innterviews with farmers also
a suggestt that there iss an increasiing trend of insect infesttation
in the reggion. Broadlly, three typpes of insect are affectinng Alnus neppalensis. Theese insects are
a of
families Coleoptera, Curculioniddae, Lepidopptera (Caterppillars), and Nettle Grubbs; out of theem is

35
Coleopteera is newly seen and inncreasing in all study siites of the reegion with higher
h impaact on
Utis tree..
Scarabaeeidae eats thee leaves of Utis
U (see figuure 11). Scaarabaeidae arre more activve in the eveening
than otheer time of thee day. Scaraabaeidae andd other insectts are compaaratively moore active in rainy
seasons however
h loccal farmers have found that the inssect activitiees have incrreased even after
rainy seaason.

Figu
ure 11: Highh infestation in Utis Treee (Scarabaeiddae in inset)

Accordinng to Crowsson (1981), most beetles (Scarabaaeidae) are small s organnisms, ranginng in
length froom 0.25 mmm to several centimeters.
c Average lenngth is estim
mated to be inn the range of
o 4-5
mm. Smaall size has ensured
e thatt their activitties mostly go
g unnoticedd. Beetles arre ectotherms and
are depenndent on en nvironmentall temperaturres during all a phases off their life cycles.
c Life cycle
processess affected by
b climate include lifeespan duratiion, diapausse, dispersall, mortality,, and
genetic adaptation
a (P
Patterson et al., 1999). Factors
F suchh as growth rates and tim ming of diappause
vary withhin the geogrraphic rangees of species (Ashworth, 2001).

Beetles have
h survived times off past climaatic change because of their small size, popullation
dynamicss, and their ability to diisperse. Beeetles can unddoubtedly reespond to cllimate changge by
dispersall. The geog graphic rangges of som me species willw expandd and otherrs will conntract.
Undoubtedly, beetless will adapt genetically to differencces in diurnaal and seasoonal temperaatures
and to daay length (A
Ashworth, 2001). The inccreasing beettles in Ilam can thereforre be attributted to
climatic anomalies.
a

36
8.2 People's perception to changing climate in Ilam
Local farmers in all of the study sites were interviewed in order to understand their experiences
with changing climate within a particular period of time. A majority of respondents responded
with consensus about increased temperature and rise in pests and insects in their region. Table 2
shows the degree or extent of the way people have perceived different themes that can be
attributed to climate change. The people's views were categorized on basis of degree of their
affirmation to the emerging changes as High, Medium and Low. The higher percentage of people
agreed on climatic anomalies and increment in insect infestations. Very few people agreed on
extinction of any plant or animal species in the region. Though they have experienced variation
in rainfall they have not experienced drought in the region. The people's perceptions are given in
figure 12.

People at all sites of different altitudes agreed that there is an increase in insect outbreaks in the
region. According to them insect outbreaks are frequently taking place in the months where
outbreaks rarely was observed in the past. Water sources are observed drying in lower altitude
study sites. Private forest area has increased however national forest has remarkably decreased
in the region.

Theme Study Site Peoples' Observed

perception period

1. Increasing Warmth Balangao & Ilam Bazar High 5-6 years

2. Rainfall Anomaly High 5-6 years
Altitude Range: 1200-
3. Increase in pest High 2-3 years
1300m
4. Drying of water sources High 10 ears

5. Extinction/Migration of any wild Low 10 ears

species
6. Increment in natural hazards Low 10 ears

7. Drought Low 10 ears

1. Increasing warmth Okhre Medium 5-6 years

2. Rainfall anomaly Altitude Range: 1300- Medium 5-6 years

1400m
3. Increase in pest High 2 years
4. Drying of water sources Low 10 ears

37
5. Extinction/Migration of any wild Okhre Low 10 ears
species Altitude Range: 1300-
6. Increment in natural hazards 1400m Low 10 ears

7. Drought Low 10 years

1. Increasing Warmth Kanyam High 5-6 years

2. Rainfall Anomaly Altitude Range: 1500- High 5-6 years

1600m
3. Increase in pest High 2-3 years
4. Drying of water sources Low 10 ears

5. Extinction/Migration of any wild Low 10 ears

species
6. Increment in natural hazards Low 10 ears

7. Drought Low 10 ears

1. Increasing Warmth Sankhejung High 5-6 years

2. Rainfall Anomaly Altitude Range: 1700- High 5-6 years

3. Increase in pest 1900m High 2-3 years
4. Drying of water sources Low 10 ears

5. Extinction/Migration of any wild Low 10 ears

species
6. Increment in natural hazards Low 10 ears

7. Drought Low 10 years

Table 2: People's perception about climate change and its evidences

38
 Degree of pe
erception aamong resp
pondents on evidences of Clim
mate 
chaange 

Hiigh Mediu
um Low

24 24
22 21 22
20
18

5 5
3 2 2 2 2
0 0 1 0 1 0 1

Figurre 12: Number of people with variable perceptionns to the varrious evidencces of climatte
change
People inn the regionn were sensittive enough to respond to the alteraations in clim
mate due to their
high deppendency on n climatic components for agricultuural practicees. Many of the responndent
agree thaat plant diseeases in the region are on the inccrease . A typical
t diseaase in cardaamom
already iss evident low
wering cardaamom produuction whichh has tauntedd the econommy of farmerss.

8.3 Clim
matic Analyssis
The tempperature and
d rainfall datta from two meteorologiical stations were analyyzed. The 200 year
data from
m 1987-20066 was used inn analyzing the
t climatic characteristiics of the reggion.

mperature
8.3.1 Tem
The meaan annual tem
mperatures at
a both statioons were fouund to be inncreasing (seee figures 133 and
14).

39
 Figure 13: Mean
M annual temperaturre of 20 yearrs at Ilam meeteorologicall station

Annual mean
m temperrature in Ilam
m meteorological stationn has increassed by almosst 1°C in 20 years
from aveerage 19°C to 20°C. The T temperaature trend linel in case of Kanyam m shows sliightly
decliningg trend, howwever the temmperature reecords confirrm increasinng day time temperaturee; the
annual mean
m temperrature in receent years at Kanyam haas reached 16°C1 from 15°C in 20 years.
y
Howeverr annual meean temperaature in botth stations seems s to fluuctuate maiinly due to high
variationn in maximu um temperaatures resultting into cliimatic anom malies. The daily maxiimum
temperatuures at meteeorological stations aree highly incrreasing and reaching well w in 30 deegree
Celsius marks
m in reccent years. Such
S temperaature variations are beinng observed much frequuently
and thereefore have made
m people to
t feel warmmer than befoore in the reggion (see figgures 15 & 16).

Figure 14: Mean annual temperature

t of 20 years at
a Kanyam meteorologic
m cal station

40
The temmperature an nomalies cann cause ecoological systems to resspond differrently and result r
abnormallity in vario ous variablees of the ovverall system m (for exam
mple see Greeenland & Swift,
S
1990). The both stations showinng temperatuure anomaly can be linkked with incrreasing inseccts in
both regions as an ecological response.
r Teemperature anomaly is explained here
h in termms of
differencce between annual mean maxim mum temperrature and mean annuual temperaature.
Maximum m annual temmperature caan work bettter in undersstanding the ecological responses
r suuch as
floweringg period, inssect outbreakks, etc. (Karllsson et al. 2003).
2

Figure 15: Temperatuure variation in Ilam meteeorological station

s in 200 years

Figure 16: Temperature

T e changes in Kanyam meeteorologicaal station in 20
2 years

41
Insects arre considereed to be moree active in wet
w season (V Vanhen 20088; Boudon-P Padieu & Maaixner
2007). Wet
W season in n Ilam normaally starts inn June and ennds in Septeember. The temperature
t trend
of wet seeason of two o meteorologgical stationss is shown inn figure 17 & 18. The teemperature inn wet
season iss clearly in ncreasing at Ilam station whereas trend of Kaanyam is unnchanged-thhough
maximum m daily tem mperatures arre increasingg-which cann be a cruciaal factor in triggering insect
i
outbreaks. There aree plenty of literatures supporting
s t high tem
the mperature, one
o of the major
m
causes too uphill inseet outbreaks. Hence eviddent temperaature rise in wet season for last 20 years
can be coonsidered a strong apprraisal to undderstand incrreasing insecct activities in the regioon. A.
nepalenssis being suscceptible to innsects (Lam
michhaney 19995) are morre infested inn wet seasonn. The
degree ofo infestation n has increeased in reccent wet seaasons killinng some trees (by com mplete
defoliatioon. It is a good
g example of increaased insects with increaasing temperrature in thee wet
season.

Insects are generally y less active in winter annd have to suurvive coldeer temperaturres. Warm nights
n
and warm m winters favor
fa insect survival (Eppstein, 20011). Insects go
g through diapause
d stagge or
hibernatiion i.e. theyy remain inaactive to moost of their biological activities
a andd cannot suurvive
winter without
w it (T
Tauber et all. 1986). Temperature increase
i in winter
w can shorten diappause
period and
a increasee the survivval rate of insects resuulting into the t developpment of seeveral
generatioon (for exammple see Farrrell & Stufkeens 1993) hence increasing the insect populationn. The
temperatuure trend theerefore of winter
w seasonn (normally November
N too February) of study area can
be imporrtant to exaamine if anyy clue in reespect to hibbernation orr diapasue of insect caan be
revealed.. The tempeerature trendds of winter months are shown in fiigures 19 & 20 for bothh two
meteorollogical statioons.

Figgure 17: Tem

mperature treend of 20 yeaars in wet seeason at Ilam
m meteorologgical station

42
Figurre 18: Temperature trendd of 20 yearss in wet seasson at Kanyaam meteorological statioon

20..00 November
December
January
February
15..00
Temperature

10..00

5..00

0..00
1987 1989
1 1991 19993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20055
19888 1990 19922 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
2 2004 20006
Yeaar

Figurre 19: Temp

perature trendd of winter months
m in 200 years at Ilaam meteoroloogical stationn

43
The temperature of winter has been fluctuating every year at both stations. The most remarkable
is the temperature of the months November and February which in recent years as suggested by
meteorological records are getting proximate (see figures 19 & 20). This can be taken as example
to understand that diapause or hibernating of insects may have shortened and insects hence have
got active by the month of February, which earlier would have been only after February.
According to the local people the chilling cold in Ilam in the past normally lasted up to the end
of February which now has been ending earlier and therefore hibernation period of insects has
shortened to increase their survival rates. The shortening of chilling cold periods in study area
also entices insect migration to the study area from different regions. Increased beetle
population can be an instance as they were hardly seen before.

The overall trend of temperature is increasing in both stations and therefore implies several
consequences; one of them which seem to be evident is the increasing insect population in the
region and subsequently defoliating Alnus nepalensis to a substantial extents.

November
20.00 December
January
February

15.00
Temperature

10.00

5.00

0.00
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year

Figure 20: Temperature trend of winter months in 20 years at Kanyam meteorological station

44
8.3.2 Raiinfall
The rainffall at two sttations was declining annnually as suuggested by the availablle meteoroloogical
records. Rainfall at both
b stationns has decreaased comparred to past and a local peeople agreedd that
rainfall distribution
d has
h considerrably been varying v sincee 3-4 years and
a hence raainfall prediiction
for themm is no long ger easy taskk; local farm mers howevver were heesitant in fullly agreeingg that
amount ofo rainfall to
o be decreaseed. The meann annual rainnfall thoughh according to t meteoroloogical
records seems
s to be declining
d in recent yearss (see figuress 21 & 22).
The rainnfall at Ilamm meteorologgical stationn has substaantially decrreased wherre as at Kannyam
station it shows less uniformity
u inn rainfall deepreciation.

Figure 21
1: Mean annuual rainfall of
o 20 years at
a Ilam meteorological sttation

Figure 22: Mean annuaal rainfall of 20 years at Kanyam

K meeteorologicall station

45
Decreasing rainfall may increase the probability of insect outbreaks (Williams et al. 2000; Todd
et al. 2002; Hulme 2005). The decreasing rainfall in study area can contribute to augment the
physiological stresses in Utis growing on wet soils (Lamichhaney 1995) consequently triggering
higher insect outbreaks. Decrease in annual mean rainfall can lower soil moisture to an extent to
suppress immunity of Utis to resist insect outbreaks.

Rainfall in both stations is in trend to decrease which is interesting to compare with increasing
temperature trend at same stations. Figures 23 and 24 give some idea of how rainfall is drifting
with changing trends of temperature. Figure 23 shows mean annual rainfall at different mean
annual temperature and explicitly indicate downward drifting of rainfall with the rise of
temperature at Ilam meteorological station.

25.00 250.00

20.00 200.00
Mean Annual Temperature (Celcius)

Mean Annual Rainfall(mm)

15.00 150.00

10.00 100.00

5.00 50.00

0.00 0.00
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year

Figure 23: Trend of mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall in 20 years at Ilam
meteorological station

The annual mean temperature trend line for 20 years of Kanyam meteorological station does not
show increasing trend however temperature records at the station explicitly indicate gradual
increments in daily temperature especially in last two years whereas annual mean rainfall
according to records are clearly decreasing. Figure 24 shows the rainfall-temperature relationship
at Kanyam meteorological station in last 20 years.

46
 20.00 400.00
Mean Annual Temperature(Celcius)

Meann Annual Rainfall(mm)

15.00 300.00

10.00 200.00

5.00 100.00

0.00 0.00
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year

Figure 24: Trend of mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall in 20 years at Kanyam
meteorological station
8.4 Discussion
The insect outbreaks in the Utis tree in Ilam has been a usual problem in the past but has become
widespread and more damaging than the past with the appearing of new insects to large
proportion. Climate of Ilam, as suggested by meteorological records and perceptions of local
people, is changing which can be attributed to the latest trend of insect outbreaks in Utis. The
recent outbreaks being highly intense and affecting the local farmers who rely on Utis can be
seen as infestation in Utis.

Impacts of climate change are definitely evident at any range of altitude but in varying degree
and nature of them are equivocal to large extent. Ecological responses to changing climate are
always beneficial in understanding the nature of ecosystem in terms of resilience and adaptive
capacity. Insect outbreaks on plants if have remarkably increased in a time gradient can be a
harbinger to represent ecological response to climate change of a particular area.

47
The four study sites at different altitude to substantial extent resembled in results in terms of
degree or measure of insect infestation in Utis. The tree samples after 25m×25m quadrate
samplings were divided into three categories: 1) Highly infested, 2) Medium infested, 3) Low
infested. Highly infested trees were almost or completely dried with not a single green leaf left.
Medium infested trees were very much defoliated and unhealthy where as low infested trees
were very less infested. Most of the trees in sampling were Utis and were infested by the insect
of order Scarabaeidae, some left completely dry and dead, i.e. highly infested, otherwise medium
infested. Utis which itself is more susceptible to insect outbreaks was found severely defoliated
at study sites. Results from quadrate sampling showed 6% of high infestation and 94% of
medium infestation in Utis where as low infestation was not seen in any sampling unit.

The insect outbreaks can never be explained in terms of a single parameter however climatic
components are the primary factor determining the life cycle and hence growth and activities of
insects ( Battisti 2008). Climatic components such as temperature and rainfall and their timing
play a key role in determining insect's growth and probability of survival ( Hiiessar et al. 2006;
Bale at al. 2002; Margraf et al. 2003). In the study area it was seen that both temperature and
rainfall data are supporting to speculate their direct influences on the increasing incidents of
insects. Mean annual temperature has inclined by 1˚C with frequent fluctuation in daily
maximum temperature which now consistently touches 30˚C, making days much warmer and
nights less cold. The result shows temperature gradient in wet season, in which insects are
relatively more active (Hedden, 1987), in increasing trajectory. Normally Utis is very well
available to insects in this period of time and increasing temperature may assist insects
distribution to expand (Parmesan et al. 2000; Vanhanen et al. 2007), therefore imperiling the
Utis by insect outbreaks. Defoliated Utis in turn can reduce the canopy cover area which in turn
can enhance soil surface temperature and lower the moisture content by allowing more solar
radiation in to the ground (Small et al. 2005). Microclimate in this way can get altered or get
warmer putting some definite influences to insect-host relationships.

Temperature records of winter season provide some insight to explain increasing insect activities
at the study sites. Insects are vulnerable to survive the winter cold temperatures and remain
inactive, called diapause or hibernation, throughout this period (Gray & Keena, 2005). The
annual temperature of November and February at meteorological stations seems to get closer
which might be a unique climatic anomaly for insect's diapause, leading to shorten the diapasue
period due to warmer February. Shorter diapasue can increase the probability of insect's survival
hence increasing their population.

Rainfall at both stations is declining every year. However drought in the region has not been the
case. Frequent insect outbreaks in Utis might have relationships with decreasing amount of
rainfall; lesser rainfall can ascend the physiological stress in Utis reducing its immunity and
hence susceptibility to insect outbreaks.

The insect which was abundantly found in Utis tree was Beetles (Coleoptera) of order
Scarabaeidae. Life cycle of most of the beetles is highly climate-dependent (Smith et al. 2000;
Ballabeni et al. 2003; Moore et al. 2005; Lobo et al. 2007). Climatic anomalies being evident in
the study site might be one of the major components contributing in massive beetle outbreaks in
Utis. As suggested by Smith et al. (2000), insect outbreak incidents are highly dependent on

48
three factors-climate, change in competitors and resource availability- of which this study reveals
that increased beetle outbreaks in Utis are highly attributed to changing climate of the study area.
However other two factors might have roles to play but are not in the scope of this study

The local people at the study sites were sensible enough to respond on different implications for
the changing climate. This was true due to direct dependence of respondents (majority of them
were farmers) on climate. Every respondent agreed on the fact of increasing warmth and rainfall
variations. Farmers unarguably mentioned the increasing incidences of different pests, and
increasing defoliation of Utis. Respondent's opinion did not vary with the temperature and
rainfall records however some of them insisted on the variation of rainfall distribution not the
declination in the amount of rainfall.

Utis is dominantly found tree species of the region and considered as the most useful tree for the
people. It is used for various purposes such as timber, plywood, firewood, shade for cardamom,
slope stabilization, etc. Utis was started to be purposely grown 4-5 decades ago by cardamom
farmers to use as shade for cardamom production. Shade to cardamom plant is very crucial as
cardamom plants are vulnerable to survive in direct sunlight and frosts. Utis is the most popular
shade in cardamom farming as Utis grows fast and its leaves are fertile as well. Most of the Utis
in the study area were grown by farmers but Utis itself can grow mainly in wet soils. Utis since
recent times have started to be commercially used in plywood manufacturing. Local farmers
today rely largely on this mode of economy. However the trend is new and taken place mainly
after the diseases in Cardamom plants-many of them are completely damaged- hitting hard to the
economy of farmers. Previously when Cardamom farming was money spinner Utis was highly
conserved as they were compulsory for shades which now is changing as they are largely cut for
plywood industries.

One arguable reason behind increasing insect infestation in Utis in study area might be the older
seeds of Utis which are probable of generating weaker plants making them more susceptible to
diseases and infestations. Utis were started to be purposely grown, as locals pointed, by around
40 years back in Ilam for the use of shade in cardamom farming. However Utis afterwards were
naturally spread and became the dominantly found tree in the region.

There are some critical evidences to support increasing insect infestation in Ilam. One of them
was the increase of insect predators like owl in the region. Many respondents confidently
unleashed the fact of increasing number of owls in the region which they have recognized by
their sounds at night. Owls were hardly found in the region before. The very apparent reasons to
support this evidences are changes in climates and increasing insects (food for owl) in the region.
This however initiates positive ecological feedback in the region which then can balance
ecosystem equilibrium. If ecological feedback remains strongly positive, the infestation in Utis
may decline in years to come by decreasing the number of insects eaten by insect predators like
owl however it is very much an assumption of the study and cannot be concluded unless with
comprehensive analysis for the same in the study.

49
 Chapter 9: Conclusions & Recommendations
9.1 Conclusions
The increased insect activities in Utis of Ilam can be considered to be an immediate responses of
ecosystem to changing climate nevertheless, ecosystem being very complex , many other factors
do have roles to play. The ecological components at study site which lies in the range of 1200m
to 2000m elevation is definitely responding to changing climate-insect outbreaks in this
assessment- and there may have numerous other evidences of implications of changing climate
in the future. The increasing mean annual temperature and decreasing annual rainfall showed by
the 20 year trend from meteorological records clearly enunciates changing climate. Utis (Alnus
nepalensis) found dominantly in Ilam District was found greatly infested at every sampling sites
since 2-3 years, as respondents informed and the results from quadrate samplings, has some
relationships with climate change. The warmer winter in the study area can highly be responsible
to decrease the diapause or hibernation period of beetles found thereby increasing their survival
rate. In addition decreasing rainfall in study area have ascended the physiological stresses on
Utis- highly water dependent tree species-making them more prone to insect attacks.

The implications of climate change in lower altitudes are much complex and therefore are
difficult to assess. First the changes in temperature are not as remarkable as at higher elevations
and hence the impacts would also be less clear. Unlike snow melt and changes in the glacial
phenomenon impacts of changing climate at lower elevation is less clear but the consequences
due to their impacts on economy and thereby on livelihood of the people are more damaging.
There can be no other systems that would show some visible signs of changing climate at lower
altitudes than a forest ecosystem. forest ecosystems can be one of the major component of
nature to respond to changing climate with varying responses such as insect outbreaks which can
threaten the dependency of human population on forests; hence understanding changing climate
in lower elevations in terms of its implications on a particular insect population on a specific
plant species seem to be justified as due to its adverse effect to local farmers however further and
acute understanding of the vague nature of climate change needs to be addressed by
comprehensive researches. The results of the study have shown that there are visible changes in
rainfall and temperature at lower elevations of middle mountains. These changes have further
changed the way various components of ecosystems interacted with each other. The increased
infestation and defoliation of Utis by insects and especially by a new beetle is an important
indication of such changing interactions. If the change in rainfall and temperature continues as it
has happened in the last 20 years, we can expect a major change in the conditions of local plant
resources. Utis probably is the first to show a sign of impact of changed rainfall and temperature
but it could well be that similar changes are taking place in agronomic and other valuable forest
plant species. These changes will undermine people's capacity to make a living from the natural
resources around them. It was not within the scope of the study to examine the impact of
defoliation on the most important crop of cardamom, which requires shades. In absence of
shades following defoliation, perhaps there are adverse impacts on the cardamom plants and their
yield. This situation may well lead to impoverishment of the local farmers in the days ahead.

50
9.2. Recommendations
Implications of changing climate are reality though with complexities mainly in understanding
them beyond melting of glaciers and sea level rise. The study of implications of changing climate
in lower elevations on ecosystem needs a reasonable period of time looking at every parameter
with the highest accuracies. Major recommendation therefore would be to supplementing this
work with other indicators apart from insect outbreaks in the study region which can be
attributed to climate change. However, remarkably, the present study has revealed responses of
ecosystems to changing climate which were adverse to the local users, further may get more
exacerbating, who rely largely on the services provided by these ecosystems. Followings are
some of the recommendations which are made on the basis of the findings of the present study:

• Utis which are getting damaged unprecedentedly by insect outbreaks in Ilam need to be
conserved and the trend of such should be examined all over the country in reference to
changing climate and in other plant species as well.

• The responses of ecosystem and hence their altered services to local people and other
living beings should be studied which then can assist in formulating sustainable adaptive
strategies to calm the repercussions of climate change.

• Insects are early and fast indicators of changing climate especially in forests and
agricultural practices. Hence the fact can be highly exercised in understanding the multi-
dimensional nature and direction of climate change especially in lower elevations
compared to snow lines-where understanding the consequences is plausibly one-
dimensional.

• Climate models should be much reliable and not only based on meteorological records
but also in reference with micro-level influences due to geology, vegetation and other
human interferences in the area especially of mountain regions. One of the climatic
models of Government of Nepal has predicted increase in rainfall in the study area of
this research however rainfall was observed to decrease.

51
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Annex 1: Photographs of Study Area

Photo 1: Utis trees as a shade for cardamom plants

Photo 2: Quadrate sampling site

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Photo 3: Scarabaeidae (Beetle) found at study sites

Photo 4: Medium infested Utis tree at Kanyam

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Photo 5: Utis tree cut for plywood industries

Photo 6: Highly infested Utis at Sankhejung

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Annex 2: Questionnaire with local farmers
Please provide an estimate of evidences of climate change in your area. Please fill in the numbers from 0 to 2
where appropriate. (0= no evidence, 1= Slightly evident, 2= Very evident)

S.No. Evidences Inferences* Score

1. Increase in tempearture For example: change in

clothing pattern, crop-shiftings,
etc. due to temperature rise.

2. Rainfall variations (More or less rainfall, delay in

rainfall, etc.)

3. Deforestations (Forest fires, etc.)

4. Extinction of any species (disappearing of wild

animals, trees, etc.)

5. Natural hazards (landslides, erosions, etc.)

6. Decline in agricultural productivity

7. Changes in water resources (Drying of

springs,lakes; loss in aquatic animals, etc.)

8. Alteration in any food product from the forests

(like fruits, etc.)

9. Increasing pest in forest and agriculture

10. Change in fooding pattern

11. Migration of any wild fauna ( immigration and

emigration)

12. Any new plant or animal seen

13. Any new agriculture crop

14. Drinking water

15. Any alteration in tea farming due to weather(e.g.

related to flush)

16. Others

The above answer is based on : Expert’s knowledge ( ) Farmer’s knowledge ( ) Others ( )

67