Weekly Snippets

Research Desk Stock Broking

March 12, 2016

MARKET ROUNDUP
NIFTY (7510.20):

The markets started the truncated week

on a flat note and remained choppy in the tight range of 74207550. Nifty finally managed to end above 7500 levels for the first
time over the last month. Lack of major triggers on both the
domestic and global front, kept equity markets muted till Thursday.
Nifty gained 25 Points for the week, out of which these gains can
be attributed to Fridays 24 points up move after greater than
expected stimulus package from ECB. Back home, key bills
connected to gas, real estate, mining sectors and aadhaar are
being passed in lower Parliament assuring that the government is
back on the reform path.
Going forward, the consolidation phase of the market will continue
before making its next up move. After the ECB's stimulus
announcements this week, global players shall begin to analyze
the moves of different central banks ranging from Bank of Japan,
Bank of England to US FOMC. Majorly, they shall keenly watch
Fed Chairmans commentary on US economy to determine the
pace of tightening. While on the domestic front, participants shall
be watching for the inflation numbers on Monday after a below
expected IIP numbers released on Friday.
Technically, on the weekly charts, Nifty has formed a bullish Horn Pattern in the prior week and formed a doji candle this week, indicating the
pause in the medium term down trend and the trend has changed from down to sideways. Moreover, Nifty is currently flirting at the zone of
previous major swing highs and cluster of medium term moving averages. While on the daily charts, it is in the cycle of higher highs and
higher lows indicating the short term trend is up, even the sustenance above its last weeks upside gaps and short term moving averages
confirms the same. However, over last few sessions Nifty is trading in a tight range of 7420-7550. Hence, a decisive sustenance beyond the
range shall give the next major trading move for short to medium term. Going forward, the next few trading sessions action is very crucial in
determining the short and medium term trend. Therefore, for the week, we expect volatility to spike after two weeks of cooling in India VIX
and Nifty to trade with positive bias until 7400 is held. On upside, the index could surge to 7700-7750 if it give sustained closing above 7550
levels.

Report Highlights
Street Buzz, Corporate Actions, Economic events

Index Strategy
Pg. 1-2

SHORT STRANGLE IN NIFTY

TECHNICAL PICK : ADANIPORTS

Pg. 5

HYBRID STRATEGY

Pg. 5

DID YOU KNOW??- REAL ESTATE BILL

Pg. 6

Sell one lot of Nifty MAR 7600 CE @ 63 and Sell one lot of
Nifty MAR 7400 PE @ 63 | Cumulative Premium: 126 | SL:
150|Targets:55-60| Max Profit: 9450 |Max Loss:Unlimited
below 7274 & above 7726 | Upper Break Even:
7726 | Lower Break Even: 7274

STREET BUZZ.

The ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.4 per cent while the benchmark rate was lowered to 0 from 0.05 per cent and monthly
bond purchases were increased to 80 billion euro from 60 billion euro with corporate bonds now eligible.
Chinas property market faces big pressure of reducing inventory while prices in tier-1, tier-2 cities rise sharply, PBOC Governor Zhou
Xiaochuan says at a briefing in Beijing. Zhou reminds risks in property down-payment loans from peer to peer lending platforms.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi doubled down on Indias commitment to macroeconomic stability, saying it has never devalued its currency
to achieve growth and wont resort to cash handouts as a way to boost farmer income. With International Monetary Fund Managing
Director Christine Lagarde on stage next to him, Modi said that India has "never tried to gain in trade at the expense of our partners." He
vowed to be a "good Asian and good global economic citizen" while hailing efforts to lower inflation, narrow the budget deficit and boost
foreign reserves.

Weekly Snippets

March 12, 2016

CORPORATE ACTIONS DURING THE WEEK

Company Code

Ex Date

Record Date

Purpose

COALINDIA

3/14/2016

3/15/2016

Interim Dividend - Rs 27.40/- Per Share (Purpose Revised)

ONGC

3/16/2016

3/17/2016

Interim Dividend - Re 0.75/- Per Share (Purpose Revised)

HINDPETRO

3/17/2016

3/19/2016

Interim Dividend

IBULHSGFIN

3/18/2016

3/21/2016

Interim Dividend - Rs 9/- Per Share

ECONOMIC EVENTS DURING THE WEEK

Event

Date

Prior

Survey

Wholesale Prices YoY (FEB)

3/14/2016

-0.90%

-0.19%

CPI YoY (FEB)

3/14/2016

5.69%

5.52%

BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

3/15/2016

FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)

3/16/2016

0.25%

0.25%

NIFTY 50 V/S GLOBAL INDICES

2.00%

SECTOR SNAPSHOT
2.00%

1.00%
0.00%
0.00%

-1.00%
-2.00%
-3.00%

-2.00%

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY METAL index ended 1.56 % higher at the end of the week, as
most of the global commodity prices rose supported the sentiment
among the investors. Technically, the index has managed to break
the previous swing high of 1874.45 but failed to sustain above the
level. The index is facing resistance around its 200 DEMA level
which is around 1893.61 levels. The index has been consolidating in
the range 1816 to 1896 in last week forming a Doji star pattern in
weekly chart. A move above or below this range could further give
direction to the index for short term to medium term perspective.

NIFTY AUTO outperformed the NIFTY by gaining 1.74 % during the

last week while NIFTY gained 0.33%.Technically the index shows a
consolidation breakout in weekly candlestick chart. On the oscillator
front, 14-day RSI has given the positive crossover on the weekly
charts reflecting strength in the index. The index is also trading
above its 100/200 EMA levels on the weekly chart indicating positive
bias. Going ahead, resistance for the index in the coming week is
seen around 7750-7850 and support is placed around 7540-7400
levels.

NIFTY BANK closed 1.11% lower at the end of the week,

underperforming Nifty 0.33%. Technically, the index is in a
consolidation mode after a huge gap up last week and is
consolidating above the unfilled gap in a range of 14757-15452.
Among the oscillators front, the 14-week RSI has given a positive
crossover to 9-period moving averages, this support our bullish
stance. Immediate resistance is pegged in the zone of 15450-15690,
while on the down side it has support in the zone of 14550-14750.
The index is expected to trade in the range of 14900-15700 for the
coming week.

NIFTY IT has lost over 1.32% in the last trading week and
underperformed NIFTY which gained 0.33% for the same time frame.
On the technical front, the index is trading below all its major long
term and medium term moving averages suggesting weakness in the
index. The index has filled a partly filled gap in previous week while
falling in the current week indicating negativity in the index. Going
forward, the index has a resistance is pegged in the zone of 11100
levels followed by 11400 levels and the immediate support is placed
at 10700 level followed by 10400-10500.

Weekly Snippets

March 12, 2016

FII ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVES

During the previous week, FIIs remained net buyers in index futures and added marginal short positions during the previous week while
stock futures witnessed liquidation of long contracts and marginal addition of short positions.
During the week passed by, FIIs remained buyers in Index futures as they increased their long positions to the tone of 33423 contracts
whereas short additions were witnessed to the tone of 1232 contracts with total net long addition of 32191 contracts on week on week basis.
Stock Futures front also witnessed addition of long closure to the tone of 33586 contracts while 4830 contracts of short additions were
witnessed on week on week basis.

INDEX FUTURES
315

Index Fut. Contracts

STOCK FUTURES

Index Fut. Net Buy

1000

1065

310

800

1060

305

600

300

400

295

200

290

1045

285

-200

1040

Stock Fut. Contracts

600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
-1400

1055
1050

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY IN CASH

Foreign institutional players remained buyers for the second consecutive week and bought around 2679 Crores worth shares in cash market.
They bought nearly 6000 Crores for the previous week as well making the total buying value for the month of March to 8613 Crores. Even
after two weeks of consecutive buying, it is seen that they are still net sellers for the current calendar year to the extent of 18256 Crores, out
of which they pulled out 12513 Crores in month of February only.
While on the flipside, our domestic institutions sold 3196 Crores for the week and it can be assumed that they might have booked some
profits during the week after a spree of buying over last few weeks. Even after the current weeks selling, they remained net buyers for
current calendar year to the tune of 19413 Crores out of which they bought around 10491 Crores in the month of February and countered the
selling of Foreign players. However, for the month of March, as on date they remained as sellers to the tune of 3953 Crores.

Time Frame

Month Till Date (MAR)

FII/FPI

DII

8,613.04

-3,952.84

1000
FII/FPI

750

DII

500

-12,513.12

Last Month (FEB)

10,491.61

250
0

Year Till Date (01/01/1611/03/16)

-18,256.09

19,413.67

-250
-500

For the CY ended 2015

-17,512.09

67,412.64

-750
-1000

Month Till Date (MAR)

08/Mar/16

09/Mar/16

10/Mar/16

11/Mar/16

Weekly Snippets

March 12, 2016

OI CHANGES DURING THE WEEK - STOCKS

Top OI Gainers with increase in Price

Top OI Closures with increase in Price

Long Accumulation

Short Closure
OI (in
lakhs)

OI Chg
(%)

PRICE
Chg (%)

HDFC

106.83

-14.64

2.79

5.64

GODREJIND

16.39

-14.51

3.56

7.67

3.71

M&M

37.31

-14.08

0.34

2093.63

7.22

13.54

TCS

38.71

-12.54

0.33

111.63

6.85

1.39

BAJAJ-AUTO

12.79

-12.30

0.85

Stock

OI (in
lakhs)

OI Chg
(%)

PRICE
Chg (%)

OIL

14.33

48.88

0.61

DHFL

66.77

8.78

MARICO

90.87

UNITECH
RELCAPITAL

Stock

Top OI Gainers with decrease in Price

Top OI Closures with decrease in Price

Short Accumulation

Long Closure

Stock

OI (in
lakhs)

OI Chg
(%)

PRICE
Chg (%)

Stock

OI (in
lakhs)

OI Chg
(%)

PRICE
Chg (%)

COALINDIA

185.12

31.17

-1.92

UNIONBANK

106.26

-15.71

-1.47

4.02

26.57

-3.07

IBULHSGFIN

79.58

-14.32

-3.30

NCC

105.84

25.40

-4.51

APOLLOTYRE

57.48

-13.42

-1.56

HDIL

226.74

24.23

-1.70

BPCL

73.42

-12.14

-1.42

HINDZINC

30.08

17.35

-2.48

ALBK

80.64

-11.81

-0.10

TORNTPHARM

NIFTY OPTIONS
PCR OI V/S NIFTY

x 100000

NIFTY OPTIONS OI
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

1.5

OPEN INTEREST

Call
Put

7600.00
7400.00

7200.00
7000.00

0.5
PCR
7100 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800

On the options front, Nifty 7200 PE has highest OI standing at more than
67.18 lakh shares. The next support for the index could be 7000 where its
PE has total open interest of more than 59.77 lakh shares. On the higher
side, 7500 CE has OI of more than 66.51 lakh shares which may act as
immediate resistance for the index and above that it is 7700 CE which
has an OI of 53.44lakh shares. Therefore, 7200-7700 may be the broad
range for the Index for the near term.

NIFTY SPOT

6800.00
6600.00

The Put Call Ratio has witnessed a sharp rise from the lows of 0.58 levels
to above 1 and is now trading above 1 from last 6 trading days and
remained almost flat during the week which declined marginally to 1.031
from 1.073 compared to previous week. Unless now, PCR falls below
0.85 levels Nifty is likely to trade in the range of 7200-7700 with bullish
bias as immediate significant OI in put options stands at 7200 and
significant calls options stands at 7700.

Weekly Snippets

March 12, 2016

PICK OF THE WEEK BUY ADANIPORTS | CMP: RS 231

ACT

BUY

ENTRY

220-225

SL

205

TGT

270

TIMEFRAME

4-6 months

ADANIPORTS has given a successful closing above its 50 DEMA after a phase of consolidation and has gained more than 2.60 % in the last trading
week. The stock was in a down trend and was making lower high and lower low on the daily charts from past few months.
The stock took support of its major support levels at around 170 and has been sustaining above its last swing high of 216 from last few trading
sessions clearly indicating the stock is making higher high. The last swing low for the stock is around 195 which further show that the stock has
made a higher low clearly indicating strength in stock.
On the daily charts, the stock has witnessed significant rise in trading volumes near its major support levels of 170 and 195 clearly indicating that the
stock has placed short term bottom and the stock is likely to move higher in coming days.
The stock has been making higher lows from last five weeks on weekly charts and is also trading at seven week high clearly displaying the strength
of the stock and any correction in the stock can used as an opportunity to buy.

The 14-period RSI on the daily and weekly charts are currently placed around 60 and 44 levels respectively which also indicate the stock has strong
momentum and can rise further in coming days.

The stock has also given a breakout and has successfully closed above its weekly resistance levels and 13 periods EWMA. It is also trading above
its previous breakdown levels further adding the strength to the stock.

HYBRID STRATEGY

HYBRID STRATEGY

CALL RATIO SPREAD IN LUPIN

BULL CALL SPREAD IN TATATMOTORS

LUPIN March Future has total open interest of 36,31,200 shares while
LUPIN March 1850 CE witnessed shed of 35700 shares making a total OI
of 61,500 shares during the last trading session. LUPIN Mar.1950 CE
witnessed addition of 4200 shares making a total OI of 35400 shares
during the last trading session. Technically, the stock has outperformed its
sectoral index with a gain of more than 4.3% for the week, whereas the
NIFTY Pharma has gained only 1.4% during the same period. The stock
also has given trading range break out on both daily & weekly charts with
decent volumes taking the stock above its all major moving averages.
Hence, we recommend to go for a Call ratio spread in this counter.
Buy one lot LUPIN March 1850 CE @ 53; Sell two lot LUPIN March
1950 CE around 17 | Max Gain: Rs 24300 | Max Loss: Rs. 5700 &
Unlimited above UBEP|UPPER BREAK EVEN:2031 |LOWER BREAK
EVEN :1869

20000

10000

-80000
-100000

-10000

420

410

400

390

380

370

360

350

340

330

320

-5000

310

0
300

2300

2200

2100

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

5000

290

-60000

1400

0
-40000

BUY one lot of TATAMOTORS MARCH 350 CE @ 15 and SELL one lot
of TATAMOTORS MARCH 370 CE @ 7 Max Profit: 12000 |Max Loss:
8000 | BEP: 358.

15000

40000

-20000

Technically, Tata Motors has gained more than 18% in the last eight
trading sessions making the chart structure on the daily charts to higher
highs and higher lows. With the current up move over the last few days,
the stock has given confirmation of platform double bottom pattern and the
stock has moved above its all major short term moving averages
indicating the short term momentum is upward. Even on the derivative
front, the stock futures during the week have witnessed short covering,
which is evidenced by stock gaining more than 3% in price and shedding
of OI by 5.93%.

Weekly Snippets

March 12, 2016

Did You Know?? REAL ESTATE BILL

th

The growing grievance of home buyers in India led to the passing of the Real Estate Bill in the Lok Sabha on 10 of March,
2016 making some historical changes in the real estate sector which would help the home buyers listen their concerns regarding
the real estate developers.
Some of the key points which might be a game changer are as follows:
1) At present there is no real estate regulator or an ombudsman who would listen to the grief of the consumer. The current
bill proposes to form a real estate regulator who would look into the matter and give its verdict based upon the scenario
present in front of them.
2) Sometimes the Real Estate Developer without having some of the prior approvals from the Local Authorities start a prelaunch which actually lure the buyers to buy a flat from that particular developer and if in the future any of the pending
approvals gets disapproved than it affects the construction as well as the hard earned money of many home buyers get
stuck. In the current bill there is no pre-launch allowed by a developer until and unless all the approvals are in sync. The
bill also covers incomplete projects.
3) A developer sometimes keeps some information hideous and afterwards if the information is revealed than the buyer
cant do anything because of the huge payment he has already made to book the flat. The Real estate bill forces the
developer to disclose all the information. The following information has to be disclosed:
a)

Details of the promoter.

b) Project.
c)

Layout plan.

d) Land Status.
e)

Status of approvals and agreements.

4) Flashy advertisements are sometimes game of the hour played by the developers in order to create a delusion for a
customer and the gullible customer gets lured by the flashy advertisement and instantly tries to grab the opportunity in
hand. But, sometimes the developer is not able to keep up the promise. The current Real Estate Bill proposes that
builders can be punished for not fulfilling commitments as mentioned in the bill board.
5) 70% of the projects money collected shall be utilised for the construction of the project and is to be deposited in escrow
account.
In short, the current Real Estate Bill is trying to cover maximum amount of grievance re- addressal which a consumer faces postbuying the flat and he or she has no one to look forward to after he is in a trouble.

Weekly Snippets

March 12, 2016

KARVY RESEARCH DESK

QUERIES & FEEDBACK

JK Jain

Toll-Free: 1800 425 8283

Head Research

Email ID: service@karvy.com

KARVY STOCK BROKING LTD

KARVY STOCK BROKING LTD| Karvy Millenium | Plot No : 31| Financial District |Gachibowli | Hyderabad - 500 032

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