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RESEARCH

WEEKLY
COMMODITY REPORT
Metals On Sticky Wicket As Europe Reels

10th May 2010 to 15th May 2010

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

ECONOMIC DATA

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Tue 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 48.9 48.4

May 11
10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.6%

Wed 8:30am USD Trade Balance -39.9B -39.7B

May 12
10:15am USD FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.8M

1:15pm USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -21.5B -65.4B

Thu 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 440K 444K

May 13
8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.8% 0.7%

9:00am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks

10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 83B

12:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Fri 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.9%

May 14
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.9%

9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 73.8% 73.2%

10:30am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.1%

9:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 73.5 72.2

9:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.9%

10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.4% 0.5%

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Fundamental Market Overview

“GOLD RISES Gold rallied on Friday to near a record high, posting its biggest three-week gain since
TOWARD RECORD November as investors cut exposure to risks stemming from Greece's debt crisis and
ON FLIGHT FROM tumbling global stock markets. Gold futures rallied in afternoon trade to the firmest since
RISK ”
Dec. 4 as volatile equities and currencies prompted nervous anxious investors to buy
gold. Investors piled into gold exchange traded funds and coins and bars, with bullion holdings in the biggest gold-
backed ETF rising 20 tonnes on Thursday, the biggest one-day gain since February 2009.

Commodities ended Friday with their sharpest weekly loss in 17 months as global market
“OIL DOWN AGAIN; jitters pressured oil and a few other commodities even after data showing a better-than-
CRB IN WEEKLY” expected recovery in U.S. jobs. The 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index settled
with a weekly decline of nearly 6 percent as its main component, U.S. crude oil, neared a
three-month low in prices. The CRB's previous biggest weekly loss was for the week of Dec. 7, 2008 when it fell 13.9
percent. Since Tuesday, the debt woes of Greece have caused the dollar to rally against the euro, sparking one of the
year's worst sell-offs in commodities and other financial markets. The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday the
nation's employers added 290,000 non-farm jobs in April -- about 90,000 more than forecast by Reuters in a poll --
while the overall jobless rate grew to 9.9 percent from 9.7 percent in March. The data briefly lifted equity markets
and oil before the sell-off resumed. Crude oil's benchmark front-month contract in New York settled down 2.6
percent at $75.11 a barrel after falling to a session low of $74.51. The dollar, which hit 14-month highs against the
euro this week, gained on the single European currency in early trading before a rescue package approved by
German lawmakers lifted the euro. Any strength in the dollar naturally raises costs for those using other currencies
to buy dollar-denominated commodities.

“US COPPER ENDS U.S. copper futures ended up in extremely volatile business on Friday, as buyers moved in
UP IN 'REFLEX near the $3.00 per lb level, a key technical area that will remain a challenge as European
RALLY', FEARS debt contagion fears linger, analysts said. Copper for July delivery firmed 2.75 cents to
PERSIST”
settle at $3.1445 per lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division.
Ranged from $3.0620 to $3.1790. COMEX estimated copper futures volume at 51,365 lots. Final volume Thursday
hit 64,417 lots. Open interest down 2,275 lots at 137,123 contracts open as of May 6. Muted market reaction to
upbeat U.S. labor market data showing employment grew at its fastest pace in four years in April. Jobs data shows
U.S. economy on upswing, but real question is how much European debt crisis will slow global economic recovery
Copper additionally buoyed by recovery in euro from 14-month low against the dollar after German lawmakers
approved rescue for Greece.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Technical Analysis

GOLD
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

GOLD 1367 1309 1252 1231 1193 1173 1135 1077 1019

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

COMEX Gold is strong on charts and sustain above 1200 $ an
ounce. Last week COMEX Gold sustained above 1180$ an ounce,
in the coming week 1226$ /1230$ an ounce will be a major
resistance in Gold. If COMEX Gold breaks and sustains above
1230$ an ounce then it can move slightly upward and could come
near 1240 $/ 1250$ an ounce. And below 1180$ an ounce can
move slightly downward.
For the next week traders can use the buy on lower level strategy if
COMEX Gold sustains above 1174 $ /1180$ an ounce by keeping
the strict stop losses.
Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1175$ and 1150$
Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be
1230$ and 1250$
Major support in MCX Gold is 17540 and 17100
Major resistance in MCX Gold is 18180 and 18400

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

SILVER
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

SILVER 2357 2176 1995 1920 1814 1739 1633 1452 1271

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

Last week COMEX Silver did not break the level of 1900$ an ounce
and for the upcoming week 1900 $ is a crucial resistance in Comex
Silver. In the coming week if COMEX Silver sustains above 1900 $
an ounce then it can move slightly upward and touch the levels of
1940/1954/ 1975$ an ounce.
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if
Silver sustain above the level of 1900$ an ounce, by keeping the
proper stop losses.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

CRUDE OIL
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

CRUDE 116.84 104.20 91.56 83.34 78.92 70.70 66.28 53.64 41.00

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

Last week NYMEX Crude did not sustained above the level of 87$ For the next week traders can use the sell on higher level strategy if
a barrel and close below 80 $ a barrel. Crude is weak on charts and NYMEX Crude sustains below 74$/73$ a barrel by keeping the
in the coming week if crude sustains below 74$ a barrel then it can proper stop loss.
further go downward.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

COPPER
Weekly Pivots

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

COPPER 424.50 388.70 352.90 333.70 317.10 297.90 281.30 245.50 209.70

Weekly Chart

Market Overview Strategy

As we mentioned last week COMEX Copper below 300 did a low
of 300.55, for the upcoming week 290 $/285 level can act as a
good support for COMEX Copper, if it breaks this level and
sustains below it we can see 270 level.
Copper is still bearish and for the next week one should use the
strategy of sell on higher levels.
For the next week COMEX Copper has important support of 300
and 285 and resistance of 341 and 356.
MCX Copper has support at 291 and 282 and resistance at 334
and 350.

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

GOLD 18826.00 18569.67 18251.33 17676.67 17358.33 16783.67 16465.33

SILVER 30817.00 30339.00 29458.00 28099.00 27218.00 25859.00 24978.00

COPPER 346.25 345.03 331.27 316.28 302.52 287.53 273.77

CRUDE 3902.00 4036.33 3740.67 3579.33 3283.67 3122.33 2826.67

NATURAL GAS 193.90 192.27 187.33 180.77 175.83 169.27 164.33

LEAD 106.65 106.35 99.20 91.75 84.60 77.15 70.00

ZINC 107.10 107.53 101.42 95.73 89.62 83.93 77.82

NICKEL 1253.20 1282.13 1149.37 1045.53 912.77 808.93 676.17

ALUMINIUM 101.45 102.32 98.43 95.42 91.53 88.52 84.63

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 Weekly Report Commodity
Weekly
10th May to Commodity
15th May 2010 Report
1st March to 6th Mar 2010
RESEARCH
RESEARCH

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