2006

Investment / Wealth Management

Premier & Prestige Mortgage & Vehicle
Finance related Insurance Revenue
Base Case Total

Include
d in
pilot

2007

2008

422,743

1,307,817

2,543,784

Yes

248,494

735,552

1,344,473

Yes

671,236

2,043,369

3,888,257

Comments
Investment products to Prestige and Premier, but wealth advisory service
offering to Premier only
Cross-sell only to customers taking mortgages & vehicle finance through
BA
Validated with big 4 markets

Standard Customer Base (including Premier &

Prestige Profile Customers who have not
"signed up" for these propositions) penetrated
with insurance & investment products (same
average revenue / customer as per base case)

260,072

1,040,917

2,861,832

Yes

2008 Penetration levels / country assumed: 30% of Mauritius &

Botswana, 20% Kenya, 10% Ghana, Zambia & Uganda.
Note that 20% of 2008 target achieved by 2006, 50% by 2007 and 100%
by 2008

Premier & Prestige additional insurance

revenue

183,631

429,911

698,208

Yes

Mortgage & Vehicle Finance related Insurance Products (100% cross-sell

/ tied product assumed)

Funeral Insurance

200,000

500,000

1,000,000

Yes

15% penetration of customer base by 2008; Note that 20% of 2008 target
achieved by 2006, 50% by 2007 and 100% by 2008

50,000

125,000

250,000

Corporate, Business Banking & Local Business

Offering (Trade, Professional Indemnity, keyman / loan protection, medical, etc)

400,000

1,000,000

2,000,000

Workplace marketing channel (insurance and

life products)

100,000

250,000

500,000

Uplift Case (over & above Base Case)

1,193,703

3,345,828

Total Opportunity Value Estimate

1,864,939

5,389,196

Pilot Value Tragets (vs direct non-BAU cost of

250,000)

1,314,939

2,609,228

Travel Insurance

For comparison sake the 2004 unvalidated

business case projected the following revenue

3,775,691

5,307,971

Subject to 30% penetration of FX customers by 2008; Note that 20% of 2008 target
Review achieved by 2006, 50% by 2007 and 100% by 2008
5% penetration of corporate / business customer base in 2006, 10% by
Subject to
2007 and 15% by 2008
Review
Assumed annual income of 1,500 per customer @ 15% commission
5% penetration of corporate customer base (not SMEs) in 2006, 10% by
Subject to
2007 and 15% by 2008; Assumed annual income of 2000 per customer
Review
@ 15% commission (ignored revenue from other banking products)

Total Revenue from "Base Case Product Set", but with more
7,310,040 aggressive penetration assumptions plus additional products and
channels
11,198,297
Excluding aspects indicated as "subject to review". Include 100% of the "yes"
5,491,393 items in 2006, but only 65% of the "Yes" item value in 2007 & 2008 as Pilot only
pertains to 4 of our markets (others modelled to come on stream in 2007)

8,055,246

Unvalidated business case developed by James Clark. Note that Credit life revenue
(15%, 14% and 11% of the projected revenue stream in 2006, 2007 and 2008
respectively) had been included in this business case, plus an earlier start date of
2005 was assumed (thus 2006 = Year 2 revenue)

Kenya, Ghana, Mauritius & Botswana

Premier / Affluent Segment
Prestige / Mass Affluent level
Total
Target Agreed with Mark Williams
Prestige & Premier Customers in Other Markets
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Uganda
Tanzania
Other
Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
% Share of Prestige & Premier Customers by top 4 countries
Kenya, Ghana, Mauritius & Botswana
New Wealth & Insurance Revenue
Pro-Rata Contribution from Zambia, Uganda & Tanzania
Total Wealth Management & Insurance Revenue
Cost @ 45%
Net Operating Income
Value of new Mortgages written based on Wealth management
Assumptions
Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Value of new Vehicle / ABF business written based on Wealth mnaagement
Assumptions
Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana

2005
2,200
50,000
52,200
75,000
22,800
8,000
6,300
3,500
5,000
0
26,400
11,000
5,700
9,100
70%
2005

2005
6,500,000

2005

2006
3,140
61,850
64,990
100,000
35,010
11,000
10,000
5,600
6,500
1,910
30,420
15,500
7,160
11,910
65%
2006
671,236
671,236
302,056
369,180

2007
4,473
78,325
82,798
130,000
47,202
13,500
12,000
5,000
8,000
8,702
38,103
20,300
9,308
15,087
64%
2007
1,301,437
741,931
2,043,369
919,516
1,123,853

2008

2006
12,449,136
10,867,500
13,140,000
3,348,722

2007
13,488,275
12,516,000
19,332,000
4,975,575

2008
15,202,024
14,392,035
21,475,350
6,662,353

33%
15%
28%
41%

2006
4,821,381
2,973,833
2,044,000
983,500

2007
5,345,229
3,612,896
3,007,200
1,111,950

2008
6,164,838
5,276,039
3,340,610
1,473,728

13%
33%
28%
22%

6,304
96,996
103,300
180,000
76,700
17,000
14,000
8,500
12,000
25,200
47,738
24,570
11,694
19,298
57%
2008
2,231,422
1,656,835
3,888,257
1,749,716
2,138,541

CAGR
42%
25%
26%
34%
50%
29%
30%
34%
34%
22%
31%
27%
28%
CAGR
82%
141%

6,602,863
2,971,288
3,631,574

Revenue by penetrating into Standard Customer base (including customers that meet the Premier and Prestige Profile, but who
have not signed-up for these propositions)
Prestige & Premier Customers
Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Other
Total
Base Case Bankassurance Revenue

2006
30,420
15,500
7,160
11,910
35,010

2007
38,103
20,300
9,308
15,087
47,202

2008
47,738
24,570
11,694
19,298
76,700

100,000

130,000

180,000

2006

2007

2008

Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Other

170,797
34,194
22,269
21,234
0

296,756
72,658
71,688
27,377
267,073

453,503
136,057
144,346
37,670
572,897

Total

248,494

735,552

1,344,473

2006
102,798
136,625
98,900
84,420
0

2007
203,708
245,356
200,912
182,983
474,858

2008
358,696
392,286
355,625
353,240
1,083,938

422,743

1,307,817

2,543,784

Base Case Investment / Wealth Management Revenue

Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Other
Total

Base Case Combined Wealth / Investment & Bankassurance Revenue

2006

2007

2008

Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Other

273,594
170,819
121,169
105,654
0

500,464
318,014
272,599
210,360
741,931

812,199
528,342
499,971
390,910
1,656,835

Total

671,236

2,043,369

3,888,257

Base Case Avergae Revenue / Customer

2006

2007

2008

Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Other

9
11
17
9

13
16
29
14
16

17
22
43
20
22

Average

11

18

25

Uplift Option 1 - Penetration into Standard Customer Base (which include

Premier & Prestige profile customers who have not "signed up" for Premier &
Prestige)
Kenya
Botswana
Mauritius
Ghana
Other (Uganda & Zambia)
Total
Uptake pace to achieve target 2008 penetration levels

2006

2007

Penetration
Levels by
2008

2008

97,494
80,671
59,908
22,000
0
260,072

355,945
286,683
259,186
86,447
52,656
1,040,917

922,143
787,030
756,744
251,185
144,730
2,861,832

20%

50%

100%

20%
30%
30%
10%
10%

Number of Customers /
"hits"in standard
Segment
54,200
36,600
17,700
12,400
6,700

If cross-sell ratio is pushed up to 100% (making insurance purchase mandatory)

Vehicle Linked Uplift
Botswana

2006

2007

2008

11,636

24,411

Ghana

6,450

6,817

4,907

Kenya

14,528

26,859

40,441

9,845

25,195

39,490

42,459

83,282

119,991

Mauritius
Total Top 4
Contribution from other Markets

Total Vehicle related uplift

Mortgage Linked Uplift
Botswana

35,153

47,478

89,093

42,459
2006

130,760
2007

209,084
2008
52,786

18,274

30,769

Ghana

8,399

12,479

16,710

Kenya

108,592

126,775

166,726

5,908

20,508

44,481

141,172

190,531

280,702

108,619

208,422

141,172
183,631

299,150
429,911

489,124
698,208

Mauritius
Total Top 4
Contribution from other Markets

Total Mortgage related uplift

Grand Total Option 3 Additional revenue

Premier Agreed Numbers

Botswana
Ghana
Kenya
Mauritius
Total Premier
Prestige Agreed Numbers
Botswana
Ghana
Kenya
Mauritius
Total Prestige
Total Affluent
Pan Africa Target
Contribution from the other countries
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Uganda
Tanzania
The shortfall will be (Refer to file "Affleunt Segment - BA Growth Assumptions July 2005.xls" for uplift assumptions)

2005

2006
1,500
210
520
910
3,140

2,100
462
728
1,183
4,473

14,000
11,700
29,900
6,250
61,850
64,990
100,000

2007
18,200
14,625
37,375
8,125
78,325
82,798
130,000

2008
2,730
1,016
1,019
1,538
6,304
2008
21,840
18,281
46,719
10,156
96,996
103,300
180,000

11000
11000
6000
7689
11,513

10446
10000
6000
8000
42,254

1,000
100
400
700
2,200
2005

2006
10,000
9,000
26,000
5,000
50,000
52,200
75,000

9000
9500
4000
5268
assumptions)

2007

11000
11000
5237
7000
773