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Review
1. The weight of an adult swan is normally distributed with a mean of 30 pounds
and a standard deviation of 10 pounds. A farmer randomly selected 36 swans
and loaded them into his truck. What is the probability that this flock of
swans weights more than 1000 pounds?
The wrong approach to this problem is to find the average weight and standard
deviation of a flock of swans and then calculate the Z-score from that. We have
no information about a flock of swans and how that weight is distributed; we are
told that individual swan weights are normally distributed. If a flock of swans
needs to weigh less than 1000 pounds, then an average weight of the swans
needs to weigh 1000/36 pounds. If the true weight of an adult swan is
(30, 10 )
X
36 . We
1000
30
X 30
36
>
P( X >1000/36) = P( 10
10
36
36
) = P (Z>-1.33) = .908
Practice Problems
3. An investigator wants to study whether or not Harvard students have similar
aerobic conditioning as the general US population. In the general US
population age 18-29, it is known that the mean heart rate is 69 beats per
minute with a standard deviation of 6 beats per minute. We would like to use
this section as a random sample in order to investigate this.
a.
What are our hypotheses? What should the level of the test () be set
to? What would be a Type I error? A Type II?
H 0 : 69
Ha : 69
(2-sided)
0.05
A Type I error would be one where we reject the null hypothesis even though
it is true. In this case we claim that Harvard student have the different heart
rates, then though they have the same as the population. A Type II error
would not rejecting the null hypothesis, when it is false, or claiming that
Harvard has the same rate as the population when it does not.
b.
H0
the hypothesized mean does our sample mean have to be to reject
?
This is a 2-sided test. The investigator has no a priori assumption about
whether the average heartrate will be lower or higher.
We will be performing a z-test (since we know the true standard deviation in
the population, = 6).
H0
If our z-test is further in the tails than 1.96 or -1.96, we will reject the
c.
Now take the mean and SD of the heartrates of this class. What is the
conclusion from this test?
Let us assume that the average heart rate of this class is 65.95, standard
deviation 8.11 and there are 20 students in this section
2.27
6
1.3416
n
20
We reject the null hypothesis because |Z| > 1.96. There is enough evidence
that Harvards mean heartrate is different than the rest of the US; in fact, its
lower.
d.
n
20
*Note, we chose z to be 1.96 since that is the value in a standard normal
distribution that puts 0.025 in each tail (so that 95% fall between -1.96 and
1.96).
e.
f.
The most logical solution would be to use the sample standard deviation (s)
as an estimate for . The resulting test statistic would no longer be a true
normal distribution.
This actually would be a t-test based on the same hypotheses. Here, we
found the standard deviation in the sample of data to be s = 8.11. Thus, we
would calculate the t-statistic to be:
1.68
s
8.11
1.813
n
20
This t-test has df = n 1 = 19. In the t-table, we find the t critical value to be
0.05
not enough evidence that Harvards mean heartrate is different than the rest
of the US.
4.