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Pentagons Asia 2025 Report

Indo-Pakistan
Relations:
Political Realism
Paradigm
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Focus Area :
Foundations of Indo-Pak
Relation
Two Nation Theory
Origin of Indo-Pak Conflict
Foreign Policy Framework of
India & Pakistan
Bilateral Political Engagement
Role of Extra Regional Powers
Future of Indo-Pak Relations

Additional Complexity
Future of Pakistan
AfPak Policy
Nuclearization of South Asia
China Factor

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Chronology of Events
1947- Indo-Pak Division /
British Plan & Two Nation
Theory
PAKISTAN In addition to
the existing political map
of Pakistan lands to be
added were- Punjab /
Assam / Kashmir /
Baluchistan

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British India Map before Partition

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Map After Division

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BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Sr.

Sr.

Indo-Pak Time line of Conflict (Indian Version)

1.

Indo-Pak Time line of


Conflict (PAK Version)
1947: Partition

1.

1947 Partition

2.

1947: First Kashmir War

2.

1947/48 - The first Indo-Pak war over Kashmir

3.

1960: Indus Water Treaty

3.

January 1, 1949- War ends on with UN ceasefire

4.

1965: The Rann of Kutch

4.

5.

1965: Second Kashmir War

5.

6.

1971: Another War

6.

7.

1979: War in Afghanistan

7.

1954 - The accession of J & K to India is ratified by


the state's constituent assembly
1963 Indo-Pak Talk under the auspices of British &
Americans on Kashmir dispute. Talk Fails
1964 - Pakistan refers the Kashmir case to the UN
Security Council
1965 - India and Pakistan fight their second war.

8.

1984: Kashmir Again

8.

1989: Campaign in Kashmir

10

1992: The Ayodhia Mosque

1966 Tashkent Agreement /Agreement to troop


withdrawal; diplomatic relations restoration.
9 1971 - India and Pakistan third time war. Bangladesh
carved out of East Pakistan
10 1972- Simla Agreement & designation of "Line-ofControl (LoC)"
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

11

1998: Nuclear Tests

12

1999: Battle in Kashmir 12

13

2001: Terrorist Attacks

14. 2002: Ayodhia Struggle

11

1974 - The Kashmiri State Govt. affirms that the state "is a constituent unit of
the Union of India". Pakistan rejects the accord with the Indian government.

1974- May- India detonates a nuclear device at Pokhran, in an operation


codenamed "Smiling Buddha"
13 1988 - The two countries sign an agreement that neither side will attack the
other's nuclear installations or facilities
14. 1989 Pak proxy armed resistance to Indian rule in the Kashmir valley begins
1998 - India detonates five nuclear devices at Pokhran. Pakistan responds by
detonating six nuclear devices of its own in the Chaghai Hills.
1999 - Lahore Declaration of 'Confidence Building Measures' (CBMs).
1999 May- Kargil War
2001 December 13- Indian parliament attack by Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-eMuhammad. 14 people dead.
2002 - President Musharraf pledges that Pakistan will combat extremism on its
own soil, but affirms that the country has a right to Kashmir.
2004 January- Vajpayee and Musharraf hold direct talks at the 12th SAARC
summit in Islamabad
2007 February 18- Samjhauta Express train between India and Pakistan bombed
near Panipat, 68 people killed.
2008 - India joins a framework agreement between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan
and Pakistan on a $7.6bn gas pipeline project. A series of Kashmir-specific CBMs
are also agreed to (including the approval of a triple-entry permit facility).
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Economic Marginalization of East


Pakistan
Year

Spending on
West
Pakistan(Cr.Rs)
1950/51- 1,129
54/55

Spending on
East Pakistan
(Cr.Rs)
524

Net Spending %
of total
expenditure
31.7

1955/56- 1,655
59/60

524

24.0

1960/61- 3,355
64/65

1,404

29.5

1965/66- 5,195
69/70

2,141

29.2

Total

4,593

28.8

11,334

Source: Reports of the Advisory Panels for the 4th Five


Year Plan 1970-75, Vol. I, published by the Planning
Commission of Pakistan

Why Did East


Pakistan secede?

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Politically Marginalized
Far Away to Administer
Economic Marginalization
Different Language
Considered as a Colony of
West Pakistan
Political implications of mal
governance had direct
refugee implication to India
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Taliban Region or
Pashtun FATA- 40
Million People

Punjabis

What's Wrong
with Pakistan?
Arab Identity

Muhajirs
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Foreign Policy
Whats Wrong with Pakistan?
Why geography -- unfortunately -is destiny for South Asia's
troubled heartland.

By Robert D. Kaplan
June 18, 2012
A place where tribes are strong and
the central government is
comparatively weak(Kaplan, 2012).
Anatol Lieven in his book Pakistan: A
Hard Country, 2012 notes the same
as a weak state

with strong
societies
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Indo-Pak Relations
Indo-Pak Conflict
Foreign Policy Directions
Role of International Actors
Future Directions

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Close to 70 Years of
confrontation
India & Pakistan have fought
four Wars
Over 25 Years of Proxy war
One million civilian deaths

India & Pakistan


are at war from
the time of
Partition since
1947

Forced migration of over ten


million people
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Partition & Origin of Conflict

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

At Partition

565 Princely States (nearly


99million people & 2/5th of Indias
land territory) were given the

03 Princely States - Junagarh &


Hyderabad (Muslim Ruler with Hindu
majority population),

option by the British imperial


authority to either join India and J&K (Hindu Ruler and majority Muslim
population) had presented competing
or Pakistan.

confusion of accession

Maharaja Hari Singh, the then king of


J&K, faced with internal pro-Pakistan
Muslim revolt, signed the Instrument
of Accession of Jammu and Kashmir
State with Lord Mountbatten on 26th
October 1947 to join with Indian
Union.
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7 Months Prior to the


Treaty of Accession

Operation Gulmarg
- 22nd January 1947

Nearly 5,000 tribesmen led by Pakistani Army


regulars attacked the region and quickly
captured large parts of territory, looted, raped
women, killed the inhabitants, torched their
houses, and abducted young women to take
back to Pakistan.
Nearly about 11,000 residents of Baramullah
were killed and the Mohra power station that
supplied electricity to Srinagar was destroyed.

While Pakistan sponsored aggression created what is known Azad


Kashmir - an independent government, this aggression seems to
have hastened Maharaja Hari Singh on October 26 to sign the
instrument of accession with India.
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Operation Gulmarg
- 22nd January 1947

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

UN & Land Division


Following the signing of
the instrument of
accession, Indian army
entered Kashmir Valley.

The United Nations brokered a peace


process & divided J&K.
India got possession of nearly 60% of
the land consisting of Kashmir Valley,
the low lying Jammu which is
primarily Hindu dominated area & the
high plateau of Ladhak- a mostly
Buddhist region.

Fought a 14 month
campaign that ended with
a ceasefire negotiated by
the United Nations along
Pakistan on the other hand got
with a de facto partition of
possession of now called Azad
the state that continues
Kashmir or Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan.
even today.

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Currently, India, Pakistan,


and China control 45%, 35%
and 20% of land
respectively, of the original
J&K State.
China received about
35,000 square kilometers in
Aksai Chin in the 1962 war
with India.
And another 5,000 square
kilometers in Balistan ceded
by Pakistan under a bilateral
treaty signed in March 1963
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1965 War
1. First, as per Pakistans calculation, Began in August 5, 1965
having lost to China, Indian
& ended on Sept 22,
defense establishment may not be
1965.
willing for another armed conflict.

2. Second, Pakistani initiative might


receive popular Kashmiri support
3. Finally, as per Pakistan
intelligence, a quick military
campaign could take India by
surprise

3 prominent factors
seem to have
accentuated Pakistani
army adventure to
occupy Kashmir by
force.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Pakistani attempt to seize Kashmir


was unsuccessful.
The second India-Pakistan War
reached a stalemate.
& finally under the supervision &
coordination of Soviet Union, the
Tashkent (Uzbekistan Capital)
Agreement of January 10, 1966
concluded the war.

1965 War:
Bilateral War &
Multilateral Power
Balance

Without any land or prisoner of


war being exchanged in either side.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Kashmir Issue @ UNO

It is Prime Minister
Nehru, a Kashmiri
himself took the
issue to UNO.
Apparently with
the advice of Lord
Mountbatten,
Nehru referred J&K
issue to the U.N.
Security Council on
1 January, 1948.

India accused
Pakistan of sending
troops into Jammu
and Kashmir besides
arming the Afridi
tribesmen to foment
law and order
situation .

Pandit Nehru is very


often blamed for
internationalizing J&K
issue which
essentially was a
domestic or bilateral
issue between India
and Pakistan.

Along with IsraeliPalestine conflict &


Korean Peninsula crisis
dividing North- South
Korea, Kashmir issue
became the first sort of
crisis the United Nations
confronted soon after
the Second World War.
68 years have passed
since the J&K issue was
debated in the UNO &
yet the conflict
continues to elude any
solution.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

The U.N involvement in the


Kashmir Conflict internationalized
the issue and lasted for around 23
years (1948-72)

After the Indo-Pak war of 1965, the


U.N engagement with Kashmir moved
at a slow pace till the 3rd PakistanIndia war of 1971.

Led to Indo-Pak Simla Agreement


which India chooses to be the
point for future negotiation and
Pakistan chooses to ignore.

Followed by Pakistans defeat in the


1971 war, the UN involvement ended
with the signing of the Simla
Agreement in 1972.

The United Nations passed a


series of resolutions on Kashmir
which was advisory in nature.

1972 Agreement emphasized on an


Indo-Pak bilateral framework to solve
the Kashmir imbroglio and kept the
U.N out of the negotiation process.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Pakistans Strategic Miscalculation


However, this time, the international political
environment, Cold War and the Political Realism
orientation of the times not only affected but
seriously influenced the nature and context of
the conflict which is evident in Pakistans India
policy even today.

China Factor
1.

Hoping to squeeze India with Chinese support,


Pakistan had ceded land in Pakistan Occupied
Kashmir to China.

2.

Under the Pakistan-China boundary agreement


of March 3, 1963, Pakistan had ceded Trans
Karakoram Tract to China and had hoped that
Chinese support in their war with India shall
neutralize Indian ability.
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Pakistans International Alliances Factor

Also, by this time, Pakistan as


a member of various Western
military alliances had
benefited from American aid
and military equipment.
Pakistans strategic relevance
for Washington as a base
against Soviet Union had
clearly increased.

Pakistan was politically stable


and economically comparable
with Indias economic profile

1.

Pakistan has remained a strategic


partner of the United States from the
beginning.

2.

Pakistan is associated with the United


States through four mutual security
arrangements.

3.

In May 1954, Pakistan signed the


Mutual Defense Assistance
Agreement with the United States.

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Same year it became a member of SEATO


along with the United States, Britain, France,
Thailand, the Philippines, Australia and New
Zealand.

In 1955, Pakistan joined the Baghdad Pact


(renamed as CENTO), another mutual
defense organization, with Britain, Turkey,
Iran and Iraq and in the process has been
sometimes termed as "America's most
trusted ally in Asia."

The Southeast Asia Treaty


Organization (SEATO) was
an international
organization for collective
defense in Southeast Asia.
Created by the Southeast
Asia Collective Defense
Treaty, or Manila Pact,
was signed in September
1954 in Manila,
Philippines.

It is the only Asian country which is a


member both of SEATO and CENTO
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Indian Position
1.

2.

3.

On the other hand, Indias Non Aligned policy and


leadership in the 1950s and 1960s had set
Washingtons relation with India in ambivalence.
Indias apprehension and refusal to participate in the
international bipolarity, Pandit Nehrus non-aligned
approach and Indias initiative in the Asian nonaligned conference at Bandung 1955 had left
Washington reasonably suspicious of Indias foreign
policy directions and objective.
In the regional military balance of power equation
therefore, Washington certainly was not an ally and at
the same time, Soviet support for the same reason of
non-aligned character was also a matter of
speculation.

The Central Treaty


Organization
(CENTO), originally
known as the
Baghdad Pact or the
Middle East Treaty
Organization
(METO).
Was formed in 1955
by Iran, Iraq,
Pakistan, Turkey, and
the United Kingdom.
It was dissolved in
1979.
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1. Washington however chose to


remain neutral in the 1965 Indo-Pak
war was a rude shock to Pakistan and
was a turning point in the Pakistans
foreign policy directions.
2. The United States not only refused to
support Pakistan under the terms of
the 1954 Agreement of Cooperation,
but issued a statement of
Washingtons neutrality and further,
cut off military supplies to Pakistan
which Pakistan called it as friends
betrayal.

American
Neutrality
&
Warning to China

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Additionally, Washington
seems to have warned China
against a possible war front
with India.

Specter
of
Vietnam

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Pakistans Triple Squeeze Approach


Instead of Washingtons support,
Iran, Indonesia, and especially
China gave political support to
Pakistan during the war.
China during the course had also
cautioned India of violation of
Chinese territory by Indian troops
which alarmed India of Chinese
direct involvement in the war.

India-Indonesia had excellent pre


historic and post independence
relations.

China Pakistan
Indonesia
Referred as the
Triple Squeeze had
indeed created
Indian
apprehensions.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

However, Indonesia equally had good


relations with Islamic Pakistan and
apparently strategized during the course of
the war to open a naval attack on Andaman
Islands.
In the 1965 war, Indonesia offered Pakistan
to send their navy to attack the Andaman
and Nicobar islands to divert attention from
the West Pakistan war effort.
They did send boats with missiles, but these
could only get there after the war ended on
Sep. 22, 1965.
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On the other side, Iran as a member of CENTO along


with Pakistan had also created similar Pakistan
China Iran trio squeeze against non-aligned India.

Most striking was the attitude of the Soviet


Union.
Its post-Khrushchev leadership, rather than rallying
reflexively to India's side, adopted a neutral
position.

Ultimately USSR provided the good offices at


Tashkent, which led to the January 1966 Tashkent
Declaration that restored the status quo ante.

Role of Iran
&
Soviet Union
Multilateral
Positioning &
De-positioning
&
Washingtons
Neutrality
Helped India in the
1965 war
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1971 War & Creation of Bangladesh


First, the political viability of West
Pakistan ruling over Bengali speaking
and far away located East Pakistan was
incongruous.
East Pakistan joined Pakistan based on
two nation Indo-Pak religious divide.
As a result of this asymmetry, East
Pakistans political representation &
their rightful economic share were
appropriated by West Pakistan.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Second, any development in


East Pakistan had direct bearing
on India including large number
of refugee inflow.
Third, close to three decades of
cold war unfolding, any
development and war buildup
in the Indian subcontinent had
all
possible
international
ramifications.

1971 Indo-Pak
War: Cold war in
the Subcontinent
The indo-Pak war
of 1971 had three
prominent
segments.

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Year

Marginalization
of East Bengal

Spending on
Spending on
Net Spending %
West
East Pakistan
of total
Pakistan(Cr.Rs)
(Cr.Rs)
expenditure
1950/511,129
524
31.7
54/55
1955/561,655
524
24.0
59/60
1960/613,355
1,404
29.5
64/65
1965/665,195
2,141
29.2
69/70
Total
11,334
4,593
28.8
Source: Reports of the Advisory Panels for the 4th Five Year
Plan 1970-75, Vol. I, published by the Planning Commission of
Pakistan

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Pak Marginalization
West Pakistan viewed the Bengali Muslim
1.
residents of East Pakistan as insufficiently
militaristic, insufficiently Muslim, and excessively
influenced by Hindu Indian culture.

And by the local Bengali Hindu population (which


comprised 13% of the population of East
Pakistan and totaled about 10 million residents
by 1971.)
The Western Pakistani regime dissolved the
elected government in East Pakistan (Bengal) in
1954 & prevented elections for the next four
years.

2.

What followed this


crackdown was a series of
human misery.
Millions of Bangladeshi
refugees fleeing to Indian
side leading to Pakistans
third and 13days war with
India that started on 3,
December 1971 and
culminated on the finally and
decisive surrender of Pakistan
on 16 December 1971

In 1971 the army prevented the convening of the


national Pakistani parliament.
BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

In the 60's Pak regime imposed a ban and censorship of the


transmission and distribution of poems written by Rabindranath Tagore.
It is reported that on February 22nd 1971 Yahya Khan said the following
to a group of generals:
We must kill three million of them, and the rest will eat out of the
palm of our hand.
Yahya Khan appointed a new military governor for East Pakistan
(Bengal), General Tikka Khan, who declared immediately after taking
office that he would carry out a final solution. He even threatened to
kill four million people in 48 hours.
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The killings began on March 25th, 1971.


The West Pakistan army, along with
reinforcements, set out on a cleansing
campaign targeting East Pakistani
intellectuals and students, Bengals,
Hindus, and urban workers.

The military campaign against cities and


towns not only led to large-scale civilian
casualties, but also displaced 30 million
people from cities into the countryside,
while another 10 million East Pakistanis
(Bengalis) fled to India.
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Bilateral War & High Table Cold War Diplomacy


India actively participated to
support Bangladesh through
Bangladesh Mukti Bahini.
However, in spite of sufficient
ground and provocation, India
resisted being the first aggressor.
Only when Pakistan opened a front
against India in the northern front
of Punjab and Kashmir and
launched an air attack on a number
of Indian airfields, including
Ambala, Amritsar in Indian side of
Punjab and Udhampur in J&K;

India responded with a


formidable three pronged
retaliation strategy which
involved air attack, naval
blockade and army assault.
Finally the war ended in
only thirteen days followed
by Pakistani surrender and
Simla Accord.

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War & International Diplomacy


President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger had from the
beginning sympathized with Pakistan and taken position to
restrain India to the tune of even joining the war if needed and
encouraging China to open aggression to neutralize India.

American
Response

In July 1971 Henry Kissinger had a stopover at New Delhi on his


secret mission to China where he apparently encouraged China
to open aggression against India and promised Washingtons
support to such possible Chinese war adventure
Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Gandhi apparently invited Indias
the then Chief of Army General Sam Manekshaw to join her in
the breakfast in full military uniform and to the surprise of
Manekshaw, US Secretary of State Kissinger was also present in
the breakfast table.

KissingerMrs. Gandhi
Breakfast
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Apparently, in spite of Kissingers adamant antiIndian position, Mrs. Gandhi seemed to have
clarified that India has to take a decisive step if
the Pakistanis continue the genocide in East
Pakistan .
Pakistans genocide in East Pakistan had also
divided American administrations perception of
how Washington should respond to the crisis.
Nixon within his administration had faced a
virtual revolt from his diplomats with the entire
State Department team based in Dhaka writing
the so-called Blood Telegram

Blood
Telegrams
from Dhaka

Divided Opinion
in US
Administration

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

During the course of war building, the


American strong anti-Indian position and
even use of abusive languages to Indian
leadership and country

US aircraft
carrier USS
Enterprise in
Bay of Bengal

Finally led to American and British direct


naval participation in the war to corner India.
Washington dispatched of the US aircraft
carrier USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal to
try to intimidate the Indian government are
adequately documented and chronicled by
many authors
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Indian Opinion Building


Meanwhile, Mrs. Gandhi in her diplomatic zeal and
stateswomen spirit and with absolute sensitivity to
international protocol and public opinion opened a diplomatic
mobilization in Europe.

JP in
Europe

Meanwhile, Anthony Mascarenhas - a Goa born Karachi based


journalist who was an eye witness to Pakistans genocide in the
East Bengal escaped to England and published in Sunday Times
the eye witness account of atrocities which virtually changed
the European and world opinion and exposed Pakistans
notoriety and crimes in Bengal

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Indo-Soviet strategic Collaboration


While the international public opinion and Indias diplomatic
buildup helped India create a favorable climate for a possible
armed solution, neutralizing American, British and Chinese
posture still needed dependable strategic axis.

Neutralizing
American British Chinese

At this critical juncture therefore Mrs. Gandhi turned to the Soviet


Union.
Indo - USSR friendship and engagement that would define as an
important foreign policy instrument and paradigm of India in the
next two decades to come was to be inked during this period.
Non-aligned India, at this testing time of war strategically,

signed on 9 August 1971 the Indo-Soviet Treaty


of Peace Friendship and Cooperation to neutralize
the emerging Washington British Beijing Islamabad axis and
defend Indias security and vital geopolitical interests.

India Moves
from NonAligned to Soviet
aligned Space

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Indo-Soviet Treaty provided the strategic


depth to India and in the actual run to the war,
Soviet war mobilization against American and
British naval move changed the course of war
in favour of India.
Given the Soviet involvement, China also
remained away from the war.

Indo-Soviet Treaty
of Friendship &
Cooperation

Sri Lanka during the war process had only


allowed Pakistan war planes to refuel in
Colombo which indicated Sri Lankan sympathy
with Pakistan.
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Simla Accord
The cost of war was heavy on
Pakistan. Pakistan lost half its
navy, one fourth of its Air Force
and a third of its army.

India took 93,000 Prisoners of


War (POW) that included
Pakistani soldiers as well as some
of their East Pakistani
collaborators.
Pakistan lost the war and a
United Nations brokered peace
agreement popularly known as
Simla Agreement concluded the
war but started the next phase of
Indo-Pak engagement

The Simla Agreement signed by Prime


Minister Indira Gandhi and President
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan on 2nd July
1972 was much more than a peace treaty.
seeking to reverse the consequences of
the 1971 war (i.e. to bring about
withdrawals of troops and an exchange of
PoWs).
It was a comprehensive blue print for good
neighbourly relations between India and
Pakistan. Under the Simla Agreement both
countries undertook to abjure conflict and
confrontation

and to work towards the establishment of


durable peace, friendship and cooperation
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Coping with Nuclearization of South Asia


The latest report by the Bulletin of Atomic
Scientists highlights the future on nuclear
weapons in this region.
The report also claims that Pakistan had
around 100 nuclear weapons (warheads)
around 2011 and by now their nuclear arsenal
has added approximately 20 more warheads.
Within the next ten years their overall
nuclear inventory could reach to 220 to 250
warheads

Pokhran Test 1998.


2003, Govt. of Indias
Formal Nuclear Doctrine

India explicitly clarified Indias nuclear capability as deterrent in nature.


As a responsible nuclear power proclaimed the principle of No First Use (NFU)
as a basis of Indias nuclear doctrine
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Next Phase
Having lost 3 Wars and subsequent Kargil War, Pakistan
since late 1980s has launched a Proxy War or Jihadi
War against India.
Jehadi war has taken away Pakistan from governance
orientation to hosting international terrorism which
now is proving to be suicidal.

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Guns & Governance


Defence Budget % of GDP 1988 -2010
8.00
6.00
4.00

2.00
0.00
China

Japan

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Source: Compiled from World Bank

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Health Expenditure % of GDP 1995-2010


India

China

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Japan

1995
96
97
98
99
2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Source: Compiled from World Bank Data

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

Conclusion
Both India & Pakistan must shift from their animosity & focus
on Good Governance
Political Realism & Balance of Power strategy has not delivered.
They must there fore shift to Political Liberalism and Economic
Neoclassicism approach and focus on economic growth and
such tools to develop their own country.

BITS Pilani, K K Birla Goa Campus

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