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National Security

More than 1,400 killed in


Syrian chemical weapons
attack, U.S. says

By Joby Warrick August 30, 2013

ThreedaysbeforetherocketsfelloutsideDamascus,ateamofSyrianspecialistsgatheredinthenorthernsuburbof
AdraforataskthatU.S.officialssayhadbecomeroutineinthethirdyearofthecountryscivilconflict:filling
warheadswithdeadlychemicalstokillSyrianrebels.
Thepreparations,asdescribedbyU.S.intelligenceanalysts,continuedfromAug.18untiljustaftermidnighton
Aug.21,whentheprojectileswereloadedintorocketlaunchersbehindthegovernmentsdefensivelines.Then,at
2:30a.m.,ahalfdozendenselypopulatedneighborhoodswerejoltedawakebyaseriesofexplosions,followedby
anoozingblanketofsuffocatinggas.
UnknowntoSyrianofficials,U.S.spyagenciesrecordedeachstepintheallegedchemicalattack,fromtheextensive
preparationstothelaunchingofrocketstotheafteractionassessmentsbySyrianofficials.Thoserecordsand
interceptswouldbecomethecoreoftheObamaadministrationsevidentiarycaselinkingtheSyriangovernmentto
whatoneofficialcalledanindiscriminate,inconceivablehorrortheuseofoutlawedtoxinstokillnearly1,500
civilians,includingatleast426children.
PullingbackthecurtainonsomeoftheUnitedStatesmostsensitivecollectionefforts,theObamaadministration
releasedonFridayitslongawaitedintelligenceassessmentoftheAug.21event,explaininginraredetailthebasis
foritsclaimthatSyriawasbehindthereleaseofdeadlygas,thegrislyeffectsofwhichhavebeendocumentedin
morethan100amateurvideos.
Thefourpageassessmentandaccompanyingmaprevealedforthefirsttimehowcommunicationsinterceptsand
satelliteimagerypickedupkeydecisionsandactionsontheground.

Readthedocument

U.S. assessment on alleged Syrian chemical-weapon attack


OfficialU.S.governmentreportontheallegeduseofchemicalweaponsbytheSyriangovernmentagainstrebelson
Aug.21.

Inchoosingtoreleasethedocument,WhiteHouseofficialsanticipatedthelikelycomparisonstothefamously
inaccurateintelligencereportsfromadecadeagothatclaimedthatIraqiPresidentSaddamHusseinwasactively
pursuingnuclear,chemicalandbiologicalweapons.SecretaryofStateJohnF.Kerry,inhisremarksontherelease
oftheintelligenceassessment,saidWhiteHouseofficialsweremorethanmindfuloftheIraqexperience.
Wewillnotrepeatthatmoment,Kerrysaid.Accordingly,wehavetakenunprecedentedstepstodeclassifyand
makefactsavailabletopeoplewhocanjudgeforthemselves.
Thedocumentproposesapossiblemotivefortheattackadesperateefforttopushbackrebelsfromseveralareas
inthecapitalsdenselypackedeasternsuburbsandalsosuggeststhatthehighciviliandeathtollsurprisedand
panickedseniorSyrianofficials,whocalledofftheattackandthentriedtocoveritup.
Weinterceptedcommunicationsinvolvingaseniorofficialintimatelyfamiliarwiththeoffensive,itsays,who
confirmedthatchemicalweaponswereusedbytheregimeonAug.21andwasconcernedwiththeU.N.inspectors
obtainingevidence.
Whileunusuallydetailed,theassessmentdoesnotincludephotographs,recordingsorotherhardevidenceto
supportitsclaims.NordoesitofferprooftobackuptheadministrationsassertionthattoprankingSyrianofficials
possiblyincludingPresidentBasharalAssadwerecomplicitintheattack.
Thereisadditionalintelligencethatremainsclassifiedbecauseofsourcesandmethodsconcerns,thereportsays.
ThatisbeingprovidedtoCongressandinternationalpartners.
AmongthesurprisesinthereportwastheU.S.estimateforthedeadandwounded.Thenewfigure,1,429,was
aboutfourtimeshigherthanaBritishcasualtyestimatereleasedThursday.
Thisassessmentwillcertainlyevolveasweobtainmoreinformation,thereportsaid.
Thematerial,preparedbyseniorintelligenceofficials,wassaidtoreflectthejudgmentsoftheCIA,National
SecurityAgencyandotherintelligenceagenciesinvolvedingatheringinformationontheSyrianconflict.Using
understatedphrasingtypicalofbureaucraticreports,itassertswithhighconfidencethattheAssadgovernment
launchedachemicalweaponsattack,usingwhatitsaidwasnerveagent,aclassofchemicalmunitionsthat
includessarin.

EchoingthefindingsofaBritishintelligenceassessmentadayearlier,thereportlinkstheAssadgovernmentto
multiplechemicalweaponsattacksinthepastyear,includingasmallscaleattackinthesamepartofthe
DamascusareathatwasstruckAug.21.
Itsuggestedthatarelativelycontrolleduseofchemicalshadinrecentmonthsbecomepartofthenormalmilitary
strategywhenevergovernmentf orceswereunabletopushbackrebeloffensivesorbreakthroughdefensive
fortifications.

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TheSyrianregimehasusedchemicalweaponsoverthelastyearprimarilytogaintheupperhandorbreaka
stalemateinareaswhereithadstruggledtoseizeandholdstrategicallyvaluableterritory,itsays.Weassessthat
theregimesfrustrationwithitsinabilitytosecurelargeportionsofDamascusmayhavecontributedtoitsdecision
tousechemicalweaponsonAug.21.
Indeed,intheweekbeforetheattack,governmenttroopshadbeenrepeatedlyfrustratedintheireffortstodislodge
rebelsfromdozensofvillageseastofDamascus,despitetheuseofaircraft,helicoptersandheavyartillerybarrages.
Thefightingappearedtohavestalledwhen,onAug.18,U.S.intelligenceagenciesobservedateamofchemical
weaponsspecialistsbeingactivatedinAdra,anorthernsuburbnearanareathattheregimeusestomixchemical
weapons,includingsarin,thedocumentstates.TheordnanceteamwasattachedtoSyriasScientificStudiesand
ResearchCenter,amilitaryruninstitutelinkedtoSyriaschemicalandnuclearweaponsprograms.
OnAug.21,regimeforceswereobservedmakingfurtherpreparationsforachemicalattack,includingthroughthe
utilizationofgasmasks,accordingtotheintelligencesummary.Soonafterward,satellitesandothersurveillance
aircraftpickeduptheflashesofrocketsandartilleryshellsbeingfiredfromgovernmentpositionstowardrebel
heldandcontestedvillageseastandsouthofthecity.Thefirstreportsofagasattackappearedonsocialmediasites
soonaftertheprojectileslanded.
Asthescaleoftheciviliancasualtieswasbecomingclear,U.S.monitorsmadeanotherkeyintercept,thistimea
messagetoaSyrianchemicalweaponsteamthatwasdirectedtoceaseoperations,theU.S.assessmentsays.Later
thatday,otherSyriantroopsbegananintensifiedbarrageonthesameneighborhoodusingconventionalartilleryin
anapparentefforttocoveruptheevidence.

Inthe24hourperiodaftertheattack,wedetectedindicationsofartilleryandrocketfireataratefourtimes
higherthanthetenproceedingdays,thefourpagedocumentstates.

Joby Warrick joined the Posts national sta in 1996. He has covered national security, the
environment, and the Middle East, and currently writes about terrorism. Follow @jobywarrick

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