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ASSIGNMENT 1
SPRING SEMESTER 2015 CLo linkage: 1
ME 201/ES 202 - ENGINEERING STATISTICS
1. Prove extended DeMorgans laws:
!c
n
n
[
\
Ai =
Aci
i=1

and

i=1

n
\

!c
Ai

i=1

n
[

Aci

i=1

2. Prove that for any two sets A and B:

A = (A r B) (A B)

and A r B = A B c

and hence
A = (A B) (A B c )
3. Three people play a game called Odd Man Out. In this game, each player flips a
fair coin until the outcome (heads or tails) for one of the players is not the same
as the other two players. This player is then the odd man out and loses the game.
Find the probability that the game ends after only one toss by each player (i.e. in
one round.) Suppose one of the players, hoping to reduce his chances of being the
odd man, uses a two-headed coin. Will this ploy be helpful? Hint: Solve by listing
the simple events in the sample space.
Answer: P r(game ends in one round) = 43 . The trick does not work: the probability of being Odd Man remains 14 .
4. Let A and B be two independent events with P r (A) > 0 and P r (B) > 0. Prove
that A & B c , Ac & B, and Ac & B c are also independent. Hint: Use partition
law.
5. A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contains 20 that are defective. Two are selected
randomly, without replacement, from the lot.
(a) What is the probability that the first one selected is defective?
(b) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that
the first one was defective?
(c) What is the probability that both are defective?
(d) How does the answer to part (b) change if chips selected were replaced prior
to the next selection?
Answer: (a)

1
5

(b)

19
99

(c)

19
495

(d)

1
5

6. A lot contains 15 castings from a local supplier and 25 castings from a supplier
in the next state. Two castings are selected randomly, without replacement, from
the lot of 40. Let A be the event that the first casting selected is from the local
1

supplier, and let B denote the event that the second casting is selected from the
local supplier. Determine:
(a) P r (A)
Answer: (a)

3
8

(c) P r (A B)

(b) P r (B|A)
(b)

14
39

(c)

7
52

(d)

(d) P r (A B)

8
13

7. Continuation of Problem 6. Suppose three castings are selected at random, without

replacement, from the lot of 40. In addition to the definitions of events A and B,
let C denote the event that the third casting selected is from the local supplier.
Determine:
(a) P r (A B C)
(b) P r (A B C c )
Answer: (a)

7
152

(b)

175
= 0.0886
1976

8. A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two
are selected, at random, without replacement from the batch.
(a) What is the probability that the second one selected is defective given that
the first one was defective?
(b) What is the probability that both are defective?
(c) What is the probability that both are acceptable?
Answer: (a)

4
= 0.0080
499

(b)

5
4

= 0.000080
500 499

(c)

495 494

= 0.98
500 499

9. Continuation of Problem 8. Three containers are selected, at random, without

replacement, from the batch.
(a) What is the probability that the third one selected is defective given that the
first and second one selected were defective?
(b) What is the probability that the third one selected is defective given that the
first one selected was defective and the second one selected was okay?
(c) What is the probability that all three are defective?
Answer: (a)

4
5
4
3
3
= 0.0060 (b)
= 0.0080 (c)

= 4.8289107
498
498
500 499 498

10. If P r (A|B) = 1, must A = B? Draw a Venn diagram to explain your answer.

Answer: No. This holds even if B A.
11. Suppose A and B are mutually exclusive events. Construct a Venn diagram that
contains the three events A, B, and C such that P r (A|C) = 1 and P r (B|C) = 0.
12. A box contains two white, two red, and two blue balls. Two balls are randomly
chosen without replacement and their colors are noted. Define the following events:
A: Both balls are of the same color
B: Both balls are red
2

C: At least one ball is red or white

Find P r (B|A) , P r (B|Ac ) , P r (B|C) , P r (A|C) , and P r (C|Ac ) . (Hint: sample
space consists of 9 points but they are not equally likely.)
Answer: (a)

1
3

(b) 0

(c)

1
14

(d)

1
7

(e) 1

13. Three fair coins are tossed and the following events are defined:
A: Observe at least one head
B: Observe exactly two heads
C: Observe exactly two tails
D: Observe at most one head
(a) Find the following probabilities:
i. P r (A) , P r (B) , P r (C) , P r (D)
ii. P r (A B) , P r (A C) , P r (A D)
iii. P r (B C) , P r (B D) , P r (C D)
(b) Use probabilities of part (a) above to calculate:
P r (A B) , P r (D A) , P r (B C) , P r (B|A) , P r (A|D) , P r (C|B)
(c) Are events A and B independent? Mutually exclusive?
(d) Are events A and D independent? Mutually exclusive?
(e) Are events B and C independent? Mutually exclusive?
Answer:

(i)

7 3 3 4
, , ,
8 8 8 8

7
P r(A B) = ,
8

(ii)

3 3 3
, ,
8 8 8

P r(D A) = 1,

(iii) 0, 0,

3
8

6
P r(B C) = ,
8

3
3
P r(B|A) = ,
P r(A|D) = ,
P r(C|B) = 0
7
4
Events A & B are NOT independent, and NOT Mutually Exclusive. Events A &
D are NOT independent, and NOT Mutually Exclusive. Events B & C are NOT
independent, but are Mutually Exclusive.
14. Problem 2.90 of Montgomery and Runger Book.
Answer: 0.9293
15. Problem 2.91 of Montgomery and Runger Book.
Answer: 0.9702
16. A batch of 500 containers for frozen orange juice contains 5 that are defective. Two
are selected, at random, without replacement, from the batch. Let A and B denote
the events that the first and second container selected is defective, respectively.
3

(a) Are A and B independent events?

(b) If the sampling were done with replacement, would A and B be independent?
Answer: (a) No

(b) Yes

17. A regular tetrahedron is a body that has four faces and, if is tossed, the probability
that it lands on any face is 1/4. Suppose that one face of a regular tetrahedron has
three colors: red, green, and blue. The other three faces each have only one color:
red, blue, and green, respectively. We throw the tetrahedron once and let R,G, and
B be the events that the face on which it lands contains red, green and blue colors,
respectively.
(a) Prove that the events R, B and G are pairwise independent.
(b) Are the events R, B and G mutually independent as well?
Answer: (b) No
18. A box contains 7 red and 13 blue balls. Two balls are selected at random and are
discarded without their colors being seen. If a third ball is drawn randomly and
observed to be red, what is the probability that both of the discarded balls were
blue?
Answer: 0.4561
19. A person uses a bunch of 5 keys to open his door lock where only one key is the
right one. He tries different keys, one at a time, until the lock opens. What is the
probability that he has to try all 5 keys before he unlocks the door?
Answer:

1
= 0.25
5

20. Suppose that there are 30 equally qualified applicants for 5 positions. Seven among
qualified candidates are graduates of GIKI. Assume that the final selection of 5
candidates is done arbitrarily (at random) from all 30 candidates.
(a) In how many different ways can the final selection be made?
(b) What is the probability that none of the GIKI graduate is selected?
(c) What is the probability that all GIKI graduates are selected?
(d) What is the probability that at least 2 GIKI graduates are selected?
(e) One out of 5 selected candidates is chosen at random for further training. What
is the probability that he is a GIKI graduate given that there are exactly 2
GIKI graduates among 5?
Answer: (a)

30
5

= 142506

(b) 0.2361 (c) 0.000147 (d) 0.3289 (e)

2
= 0.4
5