Professional Documents
Culture Documents
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 5 月 12 日
市场技术解读
倾向“逢高卖出”策略…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 马股周二一连第 3 日扩大其复苏势头,不过大部分亚洲股市却因担心中国将进一步紧缩,及市场质疑欧盟(EU)将近 1 兆
亿美元的救市计划而纷纷往下走低。
♦ 大部分投资者也锁定周一所掀起强劲反弹的利润,因忧虑欧盟的巨型救市计划可能不足以解决债务危机。市场质疑希腊减少
赤字的能力,而穆迪投资者服务(Moody’s Investors Service)也警告可能会调低葡萄牙和希腊的债务评级。
技术解读∶
♦ 在向下开低后,富时综指便恢复涨势,并形成一根阳烛,以推翻之前的“类似星线”(star-like)。
♦ 虽然我们不排除市场将会进一步上扬,但在它能够扭转近日的利淡下跌波段之前,它必须以更强的交投量来取下 10 日移动
平均线和之前的 1,347 点至 1,350 点之间的阻力区。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 这主要因为这轮反弹明显缺乏其它交技术指标的确认,比方说已再度转跌的大盘涨跌家数比率和日益降低的交投量仍然打击
投资者的购兴。
♦ 有鉴于此,我们继续维持“逢高卖出”的策略,除非该指数能够在今日以更强的交投量于 10 日移动平均线以上形成一根确
认性阳烛,还有它有能力迅速破除之前的 1,347 点至 1,350 点之间的阻力区。否则的话,于上周所触发的“双重顶”
(double top)型态将保持有效。
♦ 在市场情绪方面,我们认为,将于本周出炉的国家银行(Bank Negara)的货币政策委员会(MPC)会议结果和首季国内
生产总值(GDP)数据料将不会对市场带来显著的影响。相反地,外围进展的影响力将会更大。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
5月 5月 5月 5月 5月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 5日 6日 7日 10 日 11 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,340.72 6.75 0.5
193 137 205 529 302
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,769.00 35.48 0.4
531 644 522 194 399
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,970.08 -38.88 -1.0
257 233 234 217 272
无交易 各大海外指数
389 353 406 433 400
道琼斯工商指数 10,748.26 -36.88 -0.3
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,375.31 0.64 0.0
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,155.79 -3.94 -0.3
(百万股) 861 899 938 806 782 伦敦金融时报指数 5,334.21 -53.21 -1.0
总成交值 恒生指数 20,146.51 -280.13 -1.4
(百万令吉) 1,522 1,578 1,814 1,310 1,344 雅加达综合指数 2,812.89 -37.54 -1.3
东京日经 225 指数 10,411.10 -119.60 -1.1
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,670.24 -7.39 -0.4
令吉兑美元 3.2310 3.2530 3.2560 3.1960 3.2080 上海综合指数 2,647.57 -51.19 -1.9
曼谷综合指数 772.09 -6.97 -0.9
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,857.67 -22.81 -0.8
台湾加权指数 7,608.44 -56.29 -0.7
印度 Sensex 指数 17,141.53 -189.02 -1.1
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 76.37 -0.43 -0.6
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,505.00 -24.00 -0.9
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 4 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
27 日-28 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 6 月 22 日-23 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 5 月 12 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 尽管隔夜美国股市狂升,但本地期货市场却在区域股市回吐周一的部分涨势而再度恢复跌势。
每日交投策略∶
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 5 月 1338.50 1343.50 1331.50 1332.50 -5.50 1332.50 8201 19126
10 年 6 月 1339.50 1342.50 1331.00 1332.50 -5.50 1332.50 634 900
10 年 9 月 1338.00 1342.00 1332.50 1334.00 -3.00 1333.00 91 246
10 年 12 月 1340.00 1341.00 1332.00 1334.50 -3.00 1333.50 30 140
Page 3 of 6
2010 年 5 月 12 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 大部分美股于周二趋低,鉴于市场担心欧盟的巨型救市配套可能将无法解决债务危机,而中国也可能会采取更多紧缩措施,
以冷却其经济。
♦ 经历了周一超强的涨潮后,一些投资者便决定套利,因他们对于有关将近 1 兆亿美元的救市计划持着质疑态度。
♦ 此外,原产品相关股项,如美国铝业(Alcoa)(-3.7%)和埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)(-0.5%)也纷纷转低。这是因
为市场担忧在中国的通膨率、产业价格和新贷款的增长强于预期后,这可能会迫使该国调升利率。
技术解读∶
Page 4 of 6
2010 年 5 月 12 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 利得股份( Latexx)(日线图) 图 8∶ 利得股份(单日线图)
♦ 自从 2009 年 4 月,利得股份的股价便不断趋高于上升趋势线上。
技术解读∶
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
Page 6 of 6