SIGNS of HOPE

Rise of
Commodity
Prices

Good Monsoon

Indian Firms
Deleveraging
Fast

Sign of Earning Recovery

For Private Circulation Only

We think that initial signs of recovery in earnings have started, but we have to wait for full recovery. According to one
estimates, Nifty 50 companies (so far available for 13 companies ) aggregate net sales and net profit grew 4% and
19% Y-o-Y respectively. As initial signs are positive, but full conclusion can only be drawn at the end of this month
when all results will be out. We expect consolidation phase as markets have run significantly in anticipation.
Tjho
pg
Ipqf

1st May-2016 to 31st May-2016

Issue Theme
Pg. 1

Company Analysis
Pg. 12-15

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From The MDs Desk

Consolidation in market is expected
The next trigger in the market Is the corporate earnings, which has already been started and it seems to have the old edge.
The business confidence has started to improve and the guidance is also relatively better. It is true that the global problem
has not subsided meaningfully and the fear of hard landing is still looming. The Federal Reserve is also taking into account
the uncertain global situation and is clearly divided for raising the rates. Recently Fed kept the rates unchanged with some
hawkish comments but the chances of raising the rates in June clearly depend on the data of consumer spending and
unemployment claims and some experts do not see any rate hike during this fiscal.
The world market was expecting some more stimulus from The Bank of Japan which didnt happen and the currency market
has started to behave violently and created high volatility in currency market and equity too. The rise of Yen of almost 3% in a
day pushed the corporate world over to unwind their Yen carry trade positions and run for the cover. So this volatility seems
to be a temporary one for Indian market and any positive news from earnings front coupled with monsoon expectation may
revive the market towards uptrend.
Indian market has declined from the psychological level of 8000 and closed near to its 200 DMA. There are certain important
technical resistances towards the journey of 8100-8200 but we seem to be on track unless the important support of 75507600 is decisively broken.

Kamlesh Jhaveri ( MD )
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.

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Tjho
pg
Ipqf

Signs of Hope

Issue Theme

Is it too early to celebrate monsoon cheer ?

We know that Indian stock markets surged to over three-month highs on a troika of positive data points. 1) The
meteorological department forecast above average monsoon rains this year 2) Retail inflation eased 3) Factory output
rebounded. But economists sounded cautious as it may be too early to celebrate on the basis of these data points.
According to economist, while the prediction of normal monsoon rains, after two years of back-to-back droughts, is a big
positive however monsoon forecast have gone terribly wrong in the past. It is not about the quantum of the monsoon. It is the
distribution across time and space which is critical.
They also believe that drawing implications from monsoon estimates for growth or prices will be premature at this juncture.
The translation of strong/weak monsoon into production gain/loss and income gain/loss feeding into rise/fall in aggregate
demand is too early to be factored in right now.

Southwest Monsoon - % departure from long period average

Year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Departure

1.6

-7.1

5.6

-11.9

-14

Uncertain global cues may continue

We believe that it is combination of global cues that may happen the market going forward. The Bank of Japan surprised
world economy by declining to adopt more stimulus and also left unchanged the 0.1% negative rate.
Rising oil prices and a more stable Chinese economy may allow the US Federal Reserve to shift its focus back to the to the
home as it signaled that US jobs and inflation data would determine whether it will hike interest rates in June or not.

Corporate Earnings set the course for the market

Earnings review of the early birds depict some trend as most of Indias top companies that have reported their March quarter
financial results have exceeded investors expectations, indicating that an earnings turnaround is gaining traction. Example
: Out of 76 BSE 500 companies that reported their earnings by Friday and for which comparable estimates are available
showed that 64.5%, or 49 of them, beat Bloomberg consensus estimates for net profit. For net sales , 48 or 63.2% of the
firms under the review to beat estimates. Assuming that these trends hold up across larger samples, India Inc will be happy.
After two years of stagnation, there is finally some visibility of the so-called green shoots of recovery. If the monsoon
conforms to predictions that it will be "super-normal" and well-distributed, the boost to consumption will contribute to growth
acceleration and help broaden the cyclical expansion.

Conclusion
The domestic equity market showed a smart bounce throughout March, surging as much as 10% which revived hope of a
resumption of the last bull run that ended in March 2015. We are neither in a euphoric zone and nor in overvalued zone. One
of the most noticeable thing of current phase of market is new IPOs and new listings. New companies need to come because
when new companies come in to the market, they bring excitement. The near term big worry for the market is British Exit from
European Union. We believe that current phase of market is consolidation as market has discounted some recovery in
earnings and good hope of monsoon.

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Pharmaceutical Sector Overview

Global pharmaceutical industry

Aging population and rising life expectancy.

Increasing access to modern healthcare.
Improving healthcare awareness and improvement in medical practices.

Indian pharmaceutical industry

The Indian pharmaceuticals market is the third largest in terms of volume and thirteenth largest in terms of value, as per a
report by Equity Master. Branded generics dominate the pharmaceuticals market, constituting nearly 70 to 80 per cent of the
market. India is the largest provider of generic drugs globally with the Indian generics accounting for 20 per cent of global
exports in terms of volume. Of late, consolidation has become an important characteristic of the Indian pharmaceutical
market as the industry is highly fragmented.
India enjoys an important position in the global pharmaceuticals sector. The country also has a large pool of scientists and
engineers who have the potential to steer the industry ahead to an even higher level.
The Key Segments in the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry are as follows:
API Manufacturers / Traders ( Bulk Drugs)
Formulation Manufacturers
Contract Research and Manufacturing Services Companies (CRAMs)
Biotechnology Companies

60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Revenue of Indian
Pharmaceutical Sector
( US$ Billion )

Revenue share of Indian

Pharmaceutical Sub-Segments
in 2015
9%

55

30
Generic Drugs
OTC Medicines
Patented Drugs

21%

6
2005

12

2013

2015

70%

2020E

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Sector Update

The global pharmaceutical market is estimated to reach US$ 1.3 trillion by 2018, growing at a CAGR of 4-7% (between 2014
and 2018), an increase of US$ 290-320 billion. The growth of developed markets will be driven by the US, Japan and five
major European markets (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK). The contribution of pharmerging markets in the growth
pie is expected to increase over the next five years; and account for nearly 50% of absolute growth in 2018.
The key growth drivers for the global pharmaceutical industry are the following:
Rising share of emerging economies in global GDP

Pharmaceutical Sector Overview

Sector Update

API Manufacturers / Traders ( Bulk Drugs)

The global API industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2013-2018. The global API market is witnessing good
growth. This momentum is expected to continue considering patents expiring in the US and Europe, growth in emerging
market and increasing demand for essential drugs. Strong growth in volumes is still expected in these markets as increasing
competition from generics will lead to cost pressures on innovator companies.
Indian bulk drug exports have shifted in favour of regulated markets. The share of regulated markets in Indian bulk drug
exports to rise about 51% by 2018-19 from 43% in 2008-09, driven by Indian manufacturers' better process chemistry skills,
low manufacturing costs, a higher number of drug master filings (DMFs), the expected expansion of key generic markets
and cost reduction initiatives by large global companies.

Formulation Manufacturers
The growth story of the domestic formulations market is expected to remain strong, led by a rise in life-related diseases,
better healthcare diagnostic infrastructure adding to increasing disease detection rate, new product introductions, volume
growth driven by increasing penetration, and better access to healthcare. Domestic formulation sales are set to grow at a
CAGR of 12-14% between 2013-14 and 2018-19, with the market size crossing USD 20 billion.

Contract Research and Manufacturing Services Companies (CRAMs)

According to the global CRAMS market outlook to 2018, India and China present right prospects of market size by value of
CRAMS services globally. CRAMS as a segment constitutes of Contract Research Organization (CRO) & Contract
Manufacturing Organization (CMO), of which CMO constitutes a major portion (>60%) of the overall business.
The Indian Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS) players are expected to register a strong growth rate
of 18-20% CAGR to touch $18 billion by 2018, from $7.6-7.8 billion in 2013. Factors like patent cliff, favourable currency and
focus on new product development would drive growth for CRAMs players. Also, patented drugs, worth nearly $85 billion in
potential annual sales in the U.S., are expected to go off patent between 2014 and 2020.This is likely to boost the prospects
of Indian contract manufacturing segment (CMS) companies.

Biotechnology Companies
The Indian Biotechnology sector is presently divided into five segments based on the products and services offered. These
segments are Bio-Pharmaceuticals, Bio-Services, Bio-Agriculture, Bio-Industrial and Bio-Informatics. Bio-Pharma is the
largest sector contributing to 62% of the total revenue followed by Bio-Services, Bio-Agri and Bio-Industrial sectors which
contribute 18%, 15% and 4% respectively. Bio-Informatics is still at a nascent stage contributing to only 1% of the total
revenue.
India is among the top 12 biotech destinations in the world and ranks second in Asia, after China. The Indian biotechnology
industry has evolved over the last three decades and the sector's revenue has rapidly increased from USD 300 million in
2002-03 to USD 4 billion in 2013-14.

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Pharmaceutical Sector Overview

Pharma export to continue witnessing high growth...
Indian Pharma companies are capitalizing on export opportunities in regulated and semi-regulated markets.

India is the world's largest provider of generic medicines; the country's generic drugs account for 20% of global generic
drug exports.
In terms of Value, exports of pharmaceutical products increased at a CAGR of 26.1% to USD 10.1 billion during FY06-13.
The Americas accounted for around 34% of Indian Pharma exports in FY13,followed by Europe (26%) and Asia (20%)
Exports to Africa increased at a CAGR of 21% from FY09 to FY13,contributed mainly by export of anti-malarial and antiretroviral drugs.

Indian Pharma Sector Trade Data

Exports ( USD Billion )

12

Imports ( USD Billion )

10

10

3
2
0.4

0.6

0.7

1.1

0.9

1.2

1.7

1.8

1.2

0
FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14*

* - From April 2014 to Dec 2014

Quality issues raised by USFDA and releasing alternative drugs to cope FDC bans remain
critical
The union health ministry banned 344 fixed dose combinations (FDC) in March 2016 under section 26 (A) of the drugs and
cosmetics act, 1940. A combination drug or FDC includes two or more active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) combined in
a single-dosage form, manufactured and distributed in fixed assets.
The Pharma sector is expected to report good growth for the fourth quarter of 2015-16 despite regulatory concerns raised by
USFDA and the recent ban on 344 fixed dose combinations imposed by the government. The price increase, volume growth
and new product innovation are likely to drive the domestic Pharma market.
According to various committees set up by the Health Ministry, India has a very large number of drug formulations, between
60,000 and 85,000. The authority given to state governments to clear FDCs has resulted in such a high number of
formulations becoming available in the market. The Health Ministry argues that such massive drug consumption due to a

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Sector Update

The ministry of Commerce targets to exports USD25 billion worth of Pharmaceuticals in 2016.Indian drugs are exported
to more than 200 countries in the world, with the US as the key market.

Sector Update

Pharmaceutical Sector Overview

combination of various drugs leads to the body getting immune to the medicines effect and also carries the risk of sideeffects on vital organs such as the kidney or the liver.
The domestic sales of Pharma companies are expected to fall by an estimated 4.5% due to three major developments:
The governments decision to ban 344 FDC drugs
Price revision of existing drugs under price control
A revised 2015 list of drugs under price control

Outlook
The size of the Indian Pharma is expected to touch US$ 48 billion by FY 2018 and US $55 billion by FY 2020 as against the
current size of US$18 billion. The government of India has released Pharma Vision 2020 aimed at making India a global
leader in end-to-end drug manufacture. Approval time for new facilities has been reduced to boost investments. The
government has taken many steps to reduce costs and bring down healthcare expenses. Speedy introduction of generic
drugs into the market has remained in focus and is expected to benefit the Indian pharmaceutical companies.The recent
sharp decline in stocks of Indian healthcare companies reflects investors concerns about the likely impact on earnings.
Although, the picture for Pharma companies remains good in the medium term, a lot depends on their ability to get the US
sales growth back on track. Failing that, the effect of various recent headwinds witnessed may have a magnified effect on
their earnings and stock prices.

Preferred Stocks
Ajanta Pharma Ltd.
APL is mainly into exports as well as domestic formulations. As of FY15, the exports: domestic formulation ratio was at
65:35. Domestic branded formulations constitute 32.7% of the total consolidated turnover (FY15). The focus on specialty
therapies and niche products led APL to post strong growth at a CAGR of 29.6% in FY11-15. APL is currently deriving
almost its entire export revenues from emerging regions like Africa (Franco Africa), Asia and LatAm having a presence in
more than 35 countries. Overall export formulations have grown at a CAGR of 31.4% in FY11-15 to ` 978.1 crore. The
company is entering into a stretched phase of capex ` 700-800 crore spread across two-three years) to bolster the domestic
business as well as exports franchise, especially the US.
Granules India Ltd.
The company intends to expand API capacities of Paracetamol, Metfomin and Guaifenecin by 25-30%, 3.5x and 2.7x,
respectively, which will support both its base and emerging businesses. In FY16, GIL has also increased its PFI capacity by
38-40% to 18,400MTPA. This debottlenecking is likely to support 16-18% PFI revenue CAGR over the next two years.The
company is coming up with a Greenfield multi-product API capacity at Vizag to support the growing need of internal
consumption and new filings. The company has invested heavily in R&D. With the acquisition of the Virginia facility in the
US, it now has two R&D centers - one in Vizag for developing normal ANDAs and one in Virginia for developing complex
ANDAs.
Company

FV (`)

CMP*(`)

P/E (x)

P/BV (x)

D/E Ratio
(x)

EBIDTA
(%)

ROCE
(%)

RONW
(%)

CFO
(` in Cr.)

Granules India

128

25.68

5.93

1.18

16.04

18.58

23.1

145.33

Ajanta Pharma

1498

35.19

15.68

0.14

34.42

55.98

43.2

279.42

Source: Capitaline, CMP* as on 22/04/2016

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Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Company Basics

CMP : ` 382

TGT : ` 498

ROI : 30%

Investment Rationale
Company Overview
Wonderla Holidays is one of the largest operators of amusement parks in India, which
owns and operates two parks under the brand name Wonderla, situated at Kochi ,
Bangalore, Hyderabad. In FY16, it had a cumulative annual footfall of . Company has
also developed the Wonderla Resort in Bangalore, a Three Star leisure resort, next to its

Financial Basics
10.00
10.41
37.11
5.51
0.6705
20.00

FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)
P/E (x) (TTM)
P/BV (x) (TTM)
BETA
RONW (%)

amusement park, comprising of 84 luxury rooms.

Investment rational
WHL is a key player in Indian Amusement Park Industry
WHL is the largest amusement park company in India with over a decade of successful
and profitable operations. It owns and operates three amusement parks under the
brand name Wonderla in Kochi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and is coming up with a fourth
park in Chennai (to be operational by FY2019).

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name

% Holding

WHLs theme parks are a value-for-money weekend entertainment option for people.
The ticket charges of `600-1,050 per person for entertainment of eight to nine hours is a

Foreign

12.38

Institutions

4.38

Promoters

70.99

Govt. Holding

0.00

Thus, the value-for-money entertainment option and proximity to southern cities

Public & Others

9.01

provide WHL a great edge over the other theme and entertainment parks in the key

Non Promoter
Corp. Hold.

3.25

southern towns.

value proposition compared with the `200-500 spent on watching a movie in a multiplex
(entertainment for 2.5-3.0 hours).

Wonderlas Bangalore amusement park has been ranked No.1 in India while its Kochi
park has been ranked No.3. In Asia, Wonderla Bangalore is ranked No.7 and Wonderla
Valuations
WONDERLA is trading at ` 382.
We recommend Accumulate with
target price of ` 498 , valuing stock
30xFY18E EPS of `16.62.The stock
currently trades at 32.47x of FY16E,
27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of
FY18E.

Kochi is ranked No.13 among the top 25 amusement parks.

WONH is one of the few parks in India which is profitable due to its operational
efficiencies, in-house ride manufacturing capability and relatively less capex
requirement for expansion. It has positioned as a value park which allowed it to grow
with lower capex.

Investment Horizon : 12 to 15 Months

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Company Analysis

BSE ID
538268
NSE Symbol
WONDERLA
Group
B
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
56.50
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)
2182.90

Accumulate

Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Company Analysis

Footfalls ( In Lacs ) ( Park + Resort )

30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0

20.28

22.59

FY11

FY12

23.40

22.91

23.40

FY13

FY14

FY15

23.87

16.12

FY10

FY16

Attractions and Innovations- key growth driver for Amusement Park Operator
Visitor experience, higher footfalls, frequent visits and Per ticket revenue are largely depend on attraction offered by
operator in dry and water rides with innovation. WHL has more than decade experience as amusement park operator and
added various attractions time to time to attract new -age visitors, 2-3 attractions per year in various categories. Other big
operators in Banglore like Neeladri Amusement and Water Parks (45), Fun World (40) have lesser attractions as compared
to WHL and very less park in Banglore where both water and land based rides available.
Various attractions launched during the years :
FY14 :
1) XDMAX : This is a virtual land ride where visitor experience 3D film with physical and environmental effects.
2) Mini Coco Cups : This is a ride is for kids which resembles like a set of cup and saucer.
3) Fire Brigade and Magic Plane for kids and family respectively.
FY15 :
Jungle Lagoon : The Company has started a new water attraction at Bangalore Park in FY15. Its an large jungle-themed
water attraction with special features like soft flooring, shallow water levels and five unique water slides and a large
water play tree-house to increase visitor experience.
FY16 :
1) RECOIL & KORNETO : The company has introduced RECOIL-Indias first ever reverse looping Roller Coaster ride
and a thrilling water slide attractionsKORNETO.
Location

Bangalore

Kochi

Hyderabad

Total No. of Rides

59

62

43

No. of Wet Rides

20

23

18

No. of Dry Rides

39

39

25
Source: Company

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Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Ample of Land available to expand existing parks
Availability of Land is an important growth driver of Amusement park as parks require huge land at initial stage and for
parks can be easily developed at existing land. Ample of land helps to create more revenue streams as Global Park
operators earns 35-40% form non ticket revenue as compared to Indias 18-20%.
WHL has huge land parcel available at Bangalore, Kochi and Hyderabad within the proximity of city area and is in free hold
mode. Companys land acquiring process is in progress to develop new park in Chennai. This can help to increase visitor
experience and can be help to generate more non ticket revenue. Companys Bangalore park has already a three star
leisure resort with occupancy rate of 40-45% and has five restaurant within the park.
Company has generated ` 10.12 Cr. in FY15 (v/s ` 6.56 Cr. in FY14 and ` 5.94 Cr. in FY13) from resort division at Bangalore
Park and generated ` 5.22 Cr. in FY15 from restaurant revenue ( v/s 4.67 Cr. in FY14).
Other parks in Bangalore like Neeladri Amusement and Water Parks (30 Acres), Fun World (22 Acres ) , GRS Fantasy Park
(30 Acres) have less land parcel available as compared to Bangalore
Bangalore

Kochi

Hyderabad

Total Land Available (In Acres)

81.75

93.17

49.50

Developed Land (In Acres)

39.20

28.75

27.00

Land Availability for future development ( In Acres)

42.55

64.42

22.50

Location

Source: Company

Location, Proximity and easy connectivity to City

Proximity to city is another key element for higher footfalls and for popularity in amusement park. WHLs Banglore park is
situated only 28 KMS away from Bangalore and between Bangalore & Mysore city. Bangalore park is also near to Railway
station ( 28 KMS ) and Majestic bus station. Companys Kochi park is situated at Pallikara about 15 Kms away from Kochi
City Center and very near to airport , Railways station and bus station , only 20 Kms away from park. Companys newly
opened Hyderabad Park is near to 28 KMS from city and closer to outer ring road. Surprisingly, WHL s 18-20% footfalls
are coming from other states like Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and other near by states on strong popularity of the
amusement park.
Footfalls - Region wise Break Up ('000)
Year

FY15

FY16

Kerala ( Kochi)

4.70%

5.90%

Karnataka ( Bangalore )

76.00%

73.40%

Tamilnadu

9.70%

11.20%

Andhra Pradesh

5.20%

5.60%

Others

4.30%

3.90%
Source: Company

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Company Ananlysis

further development in existing place. Not only rides but peripheral infrastructure like resorts , restaurants and integrated

Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

WHL has strong focus on non-ticket revenue and "In Park Spending

Company Analysis

The Indian amusement parks generate a major share 75-80% of their revenues from admission tickets which is significantly
higher as compared to international parks (50% total revenue). The remaining revenue comes from non ticket revenue and
this includes sale of products (F&B, Merchandising ) and other services like restaurant revenue, shop revenue and room
rental collections. Indian parks are heavily depended on admission fees.
Revenue Stream ( % of Total Revenue)

Revenue Composition : India

Revenue Composition : Global

75-80%

35-37%

2%

35-37%

Entry Fees
Resort and Other Rentals

18-23%

Foods / Beverages / Merchandising

Sales of Products (Rs in Cr. )

Sales of Services (Ex-Entry Fees) (Rs. in Cr.)

Non-Ticket Revenue ( Rs. in Cr.)

47.50

50

25

40

34

32.39

13.53

22.51
18.54

20

26.56

30
20

32-35%
Source: Company

15

16.4

13.02

14.7
11.99

11.41

10

10

0
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

9MFY16

FY13

FY14

FY15

The non-ticketing revenue segment constitutes only ~20% of WHL s net revenue, as compared with 50% contribution in the
case of international amusement parks. This indicates the huge existing opportunity to grow the top line through this key
segment. There is strong possibility of generating more revenue streams.
WHL focuses on Integrated Parks to reduce this dependency on ticket revenue. Globally, integrated parks are in favor
where amusement parks include other services like resort, F&B centers , retail centers and merchandising offerings. In
India integrated parks are relatively new concept and slowly gaining traction in India.
In March 2012, WHL has established resort in its Bangalore As very few parks in India have accommodation facility, total
contribution from accommodation related revenues is only 2%. with rising disposable incomes, the in-park spending can
increase significantly over the next few years.
Accommodation-related revenues contribute a meagre ~4% to Wonderlas top line, compared with 35-37% contribution in
the revenue mix of a typical International Amusement Park. This displays the considerable value which can be potentially
tapped by positioning of Parks as a holiday destination.

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Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

WHL has started to focus on "One Day Outing" to "Holiday Destination Park"
Globally, Positioning of Amusement Parks as a holiday destination, rather than as a one-day outing, encourages longer

Wonderla has already developed a three-star 84-room resort attached to its Bangalore park with the aim of creating Indias
first holiday destination park where families can come and relax, soak in the atmosphere, explore the park and city at a
leisurely pace and gain a truly complete and wholesome entertainment experience.
As net spend on entertainment and leisure increases, industry models from U.S. and Europe will be replicated in India.
Parks will market themselves as a holiday destination and the revenue mix will also align itself with international peers.

Wonderla Hyderabad- next feather in Wonderla s kitty

'Wonderla', the third theme park from Wonderla Holidays in the country and the first in the State, is built in 50 acres of land
with an investment of Rs. 250 crore. It has 43 attractions, which include 25 land based and 18 water based rides. A reverse
looping roller coaster imported from Netherlands, and space themed flying theatre that is yet to be opened, would be the
major attractions. Management plans to launch a fourth park in Chennai at a cost of Rs. 300 Cr. , that would be their biggest
theme based amusement park.

In-house manufacturing brings cost efficiency

Company as developed an in-house manufacturing facility in Kochi to manufacture/construct amusement rides and
attractions, apart from those being procured from manufacturers within and outside India. The in-house manufacturing
facility enables the company to implement innovative ideas and concepts.
Inhouse manufacturing benefits WONH with certain cost efficiencies such as saving on import duties and other costs,
besides improving the efficiency in rides maintenance. Management indicated a cost saving of ~30% compared to
purchasing from an outside vendor.

Strong operating experience - a key requirement as Operator

WHL s management has rich operating experience in operating the park, which is the key requirement for success in this
industry. The first park was opened in Kochi in 2000 and the next one in Bangalore in 2005. Thus, promoters have over 14
years of rich and successful experience in park operations. Amusement parks operate for 365 days from 11am-7pm and
alcohol-based beverages are not allowed inside.

Strong competitive advantage- High entry barrier

Development of large amusement parks typically require huge investment involving land acquisition, establishing of
infrastructure and rides, and regular investment in creation of new rides. Due to its highly capital intensive nature, achieving
the required footfall becomes highly critical, especially in newly developed parks, in order to break-even. ~250 Cr. capex is
required to established an amusement park .Companies existing parks of Wonderla at Bangalore and Kochi are generating
sufficient revenue and have witnessed steady growth in footfalls over the years.

10

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Company Analysis

stay and generates significant revenue from the hotel/resort.

Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Amusement Park Industry is still in nascent stage in India

Company Analysis

The Global Parks industry earned total revenue of $28 billion in 2012, which is expected to touch $29.5 billion by 2015.
There are more than 800 parks the world over, marking an attendance of over 600 million visitors each year. United States
is the largest market with more than 400 parks with an annual attendance of 300 million, followed by Europe with
approximately 250 parks and attracting 165 million visitors a year.
Region

US

Latin America

Canada

EMEA

Asia Pacific

Global Market Share

50%

1%

2%

21%

26%

Indian Amusement Park Industry

The Indian Amusement Parks Industry is in its incipient stage. It is growing rapidly and witnessing robust development
year on year. Currently, against a 1.2 billion population, India has about 165 parks. The ratio of park-to-people is very low
in India, especially compared to the developed markets. India currently constitutes only about 1.7% of the global parks
industry in terms of revenue.

Classification of Indian Amusement Parks Industry

The 165 amusement parks currently operational in India can be broadly categorized as small, medium and large parks.
This essentially depends upon parameters such as capital investments, annual revenue, number of rides, land area, and
ticket price, among others. Of the total operational parks, only 10% can be categorized as large parks.

Type

No. of Parks

Annual Visitors

Large Parks

~ 15

More than 0.5 million

Medium Parks

~ 50

Between 0.3 to 0.5 million

Small Parks

~ 100

Less than 0.3 million

Source: Company

Key growth drivers are :

Increased Discretionary Spending
The share of discretionary spending in India (rent, fuel & power, furniture, medical care, transport & communication,
recreation & education) is seen increasing from 59% in 2010 to 67% by 2020. Spending on recreation and leisure activities
is also expected to rise significantly. Leisure spending is projected to almost double from ` 4,892 billion in 2014 to Rs.
8,983.5 billion in 2024 a CAGR of 6.3%.
Strong Growth Potential
Growth prospects for the amusement park industry are strong, with a 15-18% CAGR projected over the next few years.
Positive demographics of a country like India offers a substantial potential customer base for the industry.

11

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Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Financial Analysis :

revenues (F&B and products sales) and an 8-10% increase in the annual ticket price, WHLs revenues are expected to grow
at a CAGR of 21% over FY2015-18. WHL has an operating profit margin of about 45%, which is better than that of some of
the mature international amusement park companies. The operating profit margin is more or less expected to remain stable
in the coming years (barring FY2017 when the OPM is expected to decline due to a higher operational spending towards the
Hyderabad park).

Average Revenue Per FootFall (Rs.)

1000.00
796.90
800.00

Net Revenue ( Rs. in Cr. )

681.00
585.30

600.00

449.80

266

300

400.00

220

250

200.00
0.00

322

350

506.70

200

182
154

150

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

100
50
0
FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

Stable balance sheet, free cash flow positive

Despite an asset heavy model and a long pay-back period, WHLs balance sheet has remained in a comfortable position for
the past few years. The debt/equity ratio has not gone up above 0.2x in the last four fiscals (remained at 0.03x in FY2015).
The free cash flows have remained positive and improved from Rs6.2 crore in FY2013 to Rs55 crore in FY2015, providing
visibility of better operating efficiencies of the company. The Hyderabad park (capital expenditure [capex] of Rs250 crore)
will be funded through a mix of internal accruals and Rs180 crore raised through an equity issuance. Thus, the balance
sheet is expected to remain stable in the near to medium term.

Key Concern :
A significant decline in footfalls:
Any significant decline in footfalls due to environment hurdles (heavy rains, flooding affecting the infrastructure) or epidemic
breakthroughs (such as swine flu) will significantly affect the revenue growth of WHL.
Competition & Concentrated Revenue Stream :
Any competition which forces the company to reduce ticket prices will have an adverse impact on its financials.

12

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Company Analysis

Revenues and earnings to grow at over 21% each over FY2015-18:

With a steady improvement in the footfalls, the Hyderabad park getting operational, a strong growth in the non-ticket

Wonderla Holidays Ltd.

Company Analysis

Key Financials
Consolidated Key Financials
Equity Paid Up
Networth
Capital Employed
Total Debt
Gross Block (Excl. Reval. Res.)
Net Working Capital ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Assets ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Liabilities and Provisions ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Total Assets/Liabilities (excl Reval & W.off)
Gross Sales
Net Sales
Other Income
Value Of Output
Cost of Production
Selling Cost
PBIDT
PBDT
PBIT
PBT
PAT
Adjusted PAT

(`

in Cr )

FY 12
42
93.76
116.69
22.47
207.8
-17.04
5.95
22.99
139.68
113.13
113.13
1.39
113.23
54.12
0
57.14
56.01
45.58
44.45
30.04
30.04

FY 13
42
119.95
142.44
20.97
242.03
-14.79
9.6
24.38
166.82
137.85
137.85
1.52
137.97
67.57
11.99
64.33
61.87
52.49
50.03
33.59
33.58

FY 14
42
149.93
175.66
23.88
255.33
3.37
28.86
25.49
201.15
153.63
153.63
2.41
153.6
73.91
17.42
73.03
71.11
59.83
57.91
39.89
39.91

FY 15
56.5
356.44
373.61
15.13
269.52
-7.43
17.54
24.98
398.59
181.87
181.87
10.25
182.45
87.36
18.77
91.32
89.13
75.13
72.94
50.63
51.09

FY 12
0.24
0.16
0.6
69.19
491.87
1.1
40.34
50.51
40.29
44.27
36.46

FY 13
0.2
0.25
0.61
59.55
399.57
1.06
21.34
46.67
38.08
40.51
31.44

FY 14
0.17
0.61
0.62
49.96
370.19
0.97
31.16
47.54
38.95
37.62
29.56

FY 15
0.08
0.78
0.69
48.89
427.93
0.66
34.31
50.21
41.31
27.36
20

Ratio Analysis
Consolidated Key Financials
Debt-Equity Ratio (x)
Current Ratio (x)
Fixed Assets Ratio (x)
Inventory Ratio (x)
Debtors Ratio (x)
Total Asset Turnover Ratio (x)
Interest Cover Ratio (x)
PBIDTM (%)
APATM (%)
ROCE (%)
RONW (%)

13

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STOCK
UPDATE
Sector Update

JK Cements Ltd.
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)

10.00
17.63
231.23
35.39
2.70
745.00
425.00
69.93
4363.63

Fundamental Stock Update

Target: ` 650

CMP: ` 565

Accumulate

New Developments
Demand is expected to remain good
After subdued demand and realization in the past few quarters, optimism started
setting in after the Budget. The government outlay to the infrastructure sector (40 per
cent of cement consumption) and the rural economy bodes well.
March is expected to remain good
Volume growth for many companies is expected to be higher in the March quarter, led
by demand pick-up in the north, west and central India, and price recovery. March
quarter results, while expected to be better than that of the December quarter, may not
fully reflect benefits of improved realizations as most price increases have come in

Share Holding Pattern

March. Average selling prices are seen down six-eight per cent year-on-year. This will
be eased by strong volume growth.

Foreign

1.47

Institutions

24.00

Non Prom.

1.61

Valuations
we maintain Accumulate rating with a revised target price of ` 650 /share (i.e. at 10x

Promoters

66.99

FY17E EV/EBITDA, $ 85/tonne on FY17E capacity (11.7 MT).

Public & Others

5.93

Ultratech Cement Ltd.

Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)

10.00
80.94
693.84
40.41
4.71
3454.90
2531.00
274.43
89769.25

Share Holding Pattern

Foreign

18.43

Institutions

7.56

Non Prom.

62.77

Promoters

11.18

Public & Others

0.06

Target: ` 3850

CMP: ` 3172

Buy

New Development
UltraTech cementing a stronger future
UltraTechs definitive agreement with Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) to buy the latters
21.2-million tonnes per annum (mtpa) cement capacities is positive for Indias largest
cement producer. This is a slight change compared to the February memorandum of
understanding (MoU) between the two companies, wherein UltraTech was to acquire
22.4 mtpa capacities. The new deal now leaves out JPAs Karnataka-based 1.2-mtpa
plant, which is in close proximity to UltraTechs Malkhed plant.
Nevertheless, the enterprise value of ` 16,370 crore ($115 per tonne) is attractive and
lower than the $122 UltraTech had paid for JPAs Gujarat-based assets. The
acquisition, which is likely to be completed in 12-15 months, will take UltraTechs
overall capacity close to 90 mtpa.
Valuation
At the critical juncture demand recovery, UTCEMs strong focus on growth and cost
efficiency make it most predictable play. Impact of JPA deal would be contingent on
pace of recovery of the sector. It is a strong bet on the cycle upturn, and in our view, the
success in asset creation should overshadow any near-term concerns for long-term
investors. We value UTCEM at ` 3,850 (13x FY18E EBITDA; USD220/ton).

15

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STOCK
UPDATE

Fundamental Stock Update

Development Credit Bank

FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)

10.00
6.84
60.83
14.33
1.60
150.90
68.40
284.55
2788.58

Share Holding Pattern

Foreign

21.39

Institutions

20.62

Non Prom.

8.68

Promoters

16.24

Public & Others

33.07

Eveready Industries Ltd

Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)

5.00
6.68
85.94
39.92
3.10
375.00
192.25
36.34
1938.01

Share Holding Pattern

Buy

Management aims to double balance sheet in three years

DCB is embarking on aggressive branch expansion taking its total to 300+. The
management has guided at doubling the banks balance sheet in three to four years.
We estimate the credit book will grow at 22% CAGR in FY17-18E to ` 19157 Cr. The
bank is aiming to broadly maintain its current credit mix of 40% retail, 15-20% SME,
15% agriculture and 20-25% corporate in the long term.
Branch expansion strategy to keep cost-to-income ratio elevated
With a view of laying the foundation for future endeavour and counter competition from
MFI who have been awarded small bank licenses, DCB in Q2FY16 announced a shift
in its strategy from stable growth to aggressive expansion. With a lag in revenue
accretion until new branches achieve break even, we expect profitability to remain
subdued in FY17-18E.
Valuation
We remain positive on the bank given the strong growth in earnings and well
capitalized and healthy balance sheet. At CMP, DCB Bank is trading at 1.35x and
1.20x FY17E and FY18E Adj. BV and 12.71x and 9.95x FY17E and FY18E EPS
respectively. We recommend BUY with a target price of ` 135 (1.8x of FY18E P/Adj.
BV).
Target: ` 335

CMP: ` 243

Buy

Eveready Industries enters consumer appliances segment

EIIL announced its entry into the small consumer appliances segment tapping a new
growth area. In April, EIIL will go national with 60 products which include fans, food
processors, induction cookers, irons, OTGs, water heaters and electric
kettles. The products will be unveiled with a grand advertisement campaign coinciding
with Diwali. According to Management, the process of looking beyond batteries has
begun and by May-end, EIIL will be in a position to see how it can leverage its brand to
enter other growth areas.Part of the sales would come through the distribution
channels of lighting and flashlight products that EIIL is presently in. It will be an assetlight model whereby products designed in-house will be sourced out to Chinese and
domestic vendors

Foreign

21.39

Institutions

20.62

Valuations
We expect 16% revenue CAGR and 190bp EBITDA margin expansion over FY16-18,

Non Prom.

8.68

driving 39% PAT CAGR. We maintain Buy with a target price of ` 335 (37% upside).

Promoters

16.24

Public & Others

33.07

16

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Sector Update

Financial Basics

Target: ` 135

CMP: ` 92

OPEN

FUNDAMENTAL

CALLS

Open Fundamental Calls

Company

Current
Reco

Fundamental Stocks
52 Week

Absolute Return (%)

CMP*( ` )
High (`)

Low (`)

3M

6M

12M

Face
Value
(`)

Market
P/BV
Cap
(` in Cr) (x)

P/E
(x)

Dividend Yield
%

Automobile
Ashok Leyland

Hold

106

M&M

Hold

1327

1442.05 1091.25 13%

Maruti Suzuki

Hold

3728

4790.00 3193.25 -9% -15%

112.90

63.80

22%

12% 57%

30152

8.64 33.96

0.42

13%

82388

3.19 28.76

0.90

5%

112614

4.63 35.34

0.67

-12% -18%

147091

1.74 12.51

1.97

6%

Banks
ICICI Bank

Buy

253

338.00

180.75

7%

Bank of Baroda

Hold

158

216.30

109.35

22%

-9%

-9%

36371

0.83

9.65

1.95

City Union Bank

Hold

95

105.55

77.80

21%

7%

-1%

5695

1.95 13.45

1.15

DCB Bank

Hold

95

150.90

68.40

30%

8%

-19%

10

2699

1.55 13.87

0.00

Capital Goods
Havells India

Hold

343

354.00

235.30

13% 33% 23%

21408

11.77 61.42

0.88

TD Power Sys.

Buy

238

350.95

195.10 -11% -17% -30%

10

791

1.60 41.17

1.11

Inox Wind

Buy

271

482.50

215.00 -12% -32% -36%

10

6013

4.32 16.67

0.00

Carborundum Uni.

Buy

192

211.00

150.10

3620

3.33 27.33

0.65

Thermax

Hold

768

1148.00 715.00

9153

4.26 46.31

0.91

-4%

10

4264

2.64 34.58

0.66

3454.90 2531.00 19% 13% 21%

10

89909

4.27 40.48

0.29

12%

9%

7%

-9% -11% -19%

Cement
J K Cements

Hold

610

UltraTech Cem.

Hold

3276

745.00

425.00

20%

-7%

Finance
Dewan Hsg. Fin.

Buy

200

267.85

140.30

6%

-15% -11%

10

5830

1.23

8.31

1.38

Repco Home Fin

Hold

655

785.00

551.00

4%

-5%

10

4094

4.62 28.70

0.23

PTC India Fin

Buy

39

60.60

29.70

12% -21% -28%

10

2215

1.30

6.19

2.54

8%

Infrastructure
Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1266

1888.00 1016.05 14% -16% -25%

117924

2.88 26.66

1.28

Adani Ports

Buy

232

374.80

169.15

-26% -27%

48005

4.46 18.37

0.47

Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

142

221.00

111.30 -26% -13% -16%

2662

1.43 25.72

0.91

10

3153

3.41 23.90

2.41

6%

Logistics
-6% -15% -19%

Gateway Distr.

Hold

290

399.70

205.80

Allcargo Logist.

Hold

158

217.75

128.00 -13% -3%

0%

3976

2.08 15.02

0.63

VRL Logistics

Buy

401

479.00

261.05

-2%

NA

10

3654

5.69 34.38

0.94

1%

17

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OPEN

FUNDAMENTAL

CALLS

Fundamental Stocks
Company

Current
Reco

52 Week

Absolute Return (%)

CMP*( ` )
Low (`)

3M

6M

12M

Market
P/BV
Cap
(` in Cr) (x)

P/E
(x)

Dividend Yield
%

Pharmaceuticals
Torrent Pharma.

Buy

1423

1718.40 1135.00

2%

-10% 17%

24075

9.67

15.15

0.79

Sun Pharma.Inds.

Hold

809

1010.00 704.00

0%

-9% -15%

194668

7.60

44.22

0.37

Granules India

Buy

131

164.40

75.00

7%

-11% 45%

2842

6.09

26.39

0.36

14% 15%

1965

5.83

30.68

0.00

-18% -27% -14%

2137

1.71

21.28

0.60

Realty
Ahluwalia Contr.
J Kumar Infra

Buy

293

320.00

188.20

Hold

282

448.50

233.65

7%

Textiles
436.50

172.00

5%

4%

95%

10

801

2.58

19.08

0.82

1348

1498.85 899.00

19%

4%

34%

10

7737

3.41

20.66

0.74

Buy

105

163.15

-17% -4%

NA

10

414

2.42

8.88

0.09

Buy

871

1149.00 706.05

-4%

0%

10

512

1.58

10.63

1.61

2%

1217

1.42

15.80

0.87

25% 31%

1119

5.69

18.99

0.78

Garware-Wall Rop

Buy

366

SRF

Buy

AYM Syntex
Ambika Cotton

85.50

8%

Miscellaneous
Radico Khaitan

Hold

92

130.70

78.70

-18% -8%

Jamna Auto Inds.

Buy

141

156.20

88.00

-4%

Bharat Forge

Buy

794

1331.75 720.00

-2% -14% -34%

18491

5.37

26.58

0.94

Omkar Spl.Chem.

Hold

184

249.90

138.35

-6% -22% 24%

10

379

2.25

11.84

0.82

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

286

370.00

197.15

-7%

-6%

-7%

4899

3.19

34.96

0.25

Eveready Inds.

Hold

257

375.00

192.25

2%

-14% -14%

1868

2.99

38.47

0.00

Inox Leisure

Buy

208

275.90

145.15

-4% -15% 27%

10

2005

2.83

32.95

0.00

Prabhat Dairy

Buy

118

169.00

71.00

2%

-17% NA

10

1153

1.80

49.39

0.04

Infinite Comp

Hold

216

275.80

122.20

0%

18% -19%

10

837

1.06

8.29

0.00

Liberty Shoes

Buy

174

283.25

125.00

4%

-17% -30%

10

297

2.04

17.47

0.86

T.V. Today Netw.

Hold

317

350.00

165.00

9%

25% 47%

1891

4.20

23.85

0.47

CARE

Hold

1056

1619.50 883.00

-9% -24% -34%

10

3105

8.09

41.40

7.38

Century Ply.

Buy

179

225.00

135.65

9%

-2% -18%

3967

10.23 28.48

1.12

Hitech Plast

Hold

165

221.40

80.75

-3%

59% 51%

10

283

2.22

26.63

0.48

Mold-Tek Pack.

Buy

150

166.75

81.28

7%

23% 42%

416

3.29

19.83

1.33

Torrent Power

Buy

236

252.70

136.75

11% 31% 47%

10

11326

1.73

11.60

0.63

HPCL

Hold

861

990.95

556.05

9%

8%

38%

10

29141

2.14

22.30

2.85

Skipper

Buy

149

219.90

117.00

-12% -3%

NA

1520

4.47

17.04

0.88

(*CMP as on 25/04/2016)

18

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Open Fundamental Calls

High (`)

Face
Value
(`)

JSL Top Mutual Fund Picks

Mutual Fund Picks

Scheme Name

DHFL Pramerica Diversified Equity Fund

NAV*
NAV*
1 Year
Launch
(Div)
(growth)
(%)
Date
Top Equity Diversified Funds

3 Year
(%)

5 Year
(%)

Since Inc

9.64

9.64

-4.65

NA

NA

-3.20

16-May-00

23.59

149.41

-0.24

20.33

11.61

18.50

5-Feb-03

33.44

169.69

-2.18

15.76

10.54

22.21

Kotak Select Focus

11-Sep-09

18.46

22.82

-0.91

22.63

14.20

13.31

Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund

4-Apr-08

16.37

31.95

-2.47

21.52

14.15

15.54

Mirae Asset Prudence Fund

29-Jul-15

9.99

9.99

NA

NA

NA

-0.13

DSP BR Balanced Fund

27-May-99

22.94

108.97

-0.34

16.96

10.42

15.17

Tata Balanced Fund

8-Oct-95

71.04

167.46

-2.23

20.64

15.13

16.44

0.01

18.54

12.36

20.95

0.94

21.56

13.74

13.9

DSP BR Opportunities Fund

Kotak 50

4-Mar-15

Top Balanced Funds

Birla Sun Life Balanced'95 Fund

10-Feb-95

133.37

564.35

L&T India Prudence Fund

7-Feb-11

17.24

19.67

Mid Cap Funds

DHFL Pramerica Midcap Opportunities Fund 02-Dec-13

12.91

14.71

-7.43

NA

NA

17.62

Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme

30-Mar-07

20.58

26.54

0.96

30.15

18.49

11.37

Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund

9-Jul-10

22.02

30.97

3.77

34.14

23.07

21.60

Religare Invesco Mid & Smallcap Fund

17-Mar-08

31.14

34.34

-4.43

28.40

19.39

16.47

31.98

97.86

-6.09

30.80

18.06

11.02

Tata Midcap Growth Fund

1-Jul-94

Top Saving Funds

Tata India Tax Savings Fund - Div

31-Mar-96

60.70

12.13

1.95

22.29

14.04

19.83

IDFC Tax Advantage

26-Dec-08

13.36

37.06

-9.45

20.49

13.1

19.61

Motilal Oswal Most Focused Long Term Fund21-Jan-15

10.99

10.99

2.21

NA

NA

7.94

Religare Invesco Tax Plan

29-Dec-06

17.61

34.70

-2.50

22.53

14.63

14.30

Axis Long Term Equity Fund

29-Dec-09

19.56

29.91

-4.73

27.60

19.26

18.97

Conservative Funds
Franklin India Dynamic Pe Ratio Fund

31-Oct-03

37.19

63.28

2.47

11.93

9.28

15.94

ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan

31-Oct-02

20.32

180.80

-6.48

17.85

10.70

23.97

Principal Smart Equity Fund

16-Dec-10

15.13

16.72

0.48

15.42

11.02

10.10

-3.12

15.27

10.72

9.15

-1.22

NA

NA

4.12

Religare Invesco Dynamic Equity Fund

04-Oct-07

17.66

21.13

IDFC Dynamic Equity Fund

10-Oct-14

10.44

10.63

Dynamic Bond Funds

Launch Date

NAV
(Growth)

YTM (%)

3 Months (%)

6 Months (%)

1 year (%)

Axis Dynamic Bond Fund

27-Apr-11

15.39

8.13

14.13

6.87

7.90

IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund

1-Dec-08

17.96

7.71

9.02

4.25

5.86

ICICI Pru Dynamic Bond Fund

12-Jun-09

17.09

8.59

15.62

8.33

9.21

Reliance Dynamic Bond Fund

15-Nov-04

20.30

8.37

14.24

6.36

6.87

*NAV as on 18/04/2016

19

www.jhaveritrade.com

Selected Macro Economic Indicators

Total Foreign Exchange Reserves (US $ Billion)

360.00

360.25
359.91

1-Apr-16

8-Apr-16

358.00
356.00

355.94
351.48

352.00

351.83
350.86

350.36

349.15

350.00
348.00

355.54

353.4

354.00

347.20

347.56

346.78

346.00
344.00
342.00

15-Jan-16 22-Jan-16 29-Jan-16 5-Feb-16 12-Feb-16 19-Feb-16

26-Feb-16 4-Mar-16 11-Mar-16 18-Mar-16 25-Mar-16

15-Apr-16

Import & Export (in US $ Million)

45000
40000

35704

35794
35704

35794

33068

32690

32209

35000

30937

33961
29796

28714

30000

27790
27280

22719

20739

21075

22297

20014

21408

21720

21272

23143

22263

21998

15000

23884

20000

21274

25000

10000
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

12

Index of Industrial Production (%)

9.81

10
8

6.26

4.24

4.34

3.01

2.48

3.84

1.99

2.51

0
-2

-1.34 -1.53

-3.2

-4
Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

20

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15 Jan-16

Feb-16

www.jhaveritrade.com

Macro Economic Indicators

359.75

Selected Macro Economic Indicators

Consumer Price Index (%)
6.72

6.10
5.79

5.37

5.11

6.32

5.74

6.32

5.14

5.17

4.37

4.35

Sep-15

6 5.86
5

Aug-15

Macro Economic Indicators

5.91

5.53

3
2
Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Jan-15

Wholesale Price Index (%)

0
-0.9
-1

-0.91

-0.85

-0.73

-2 -2.17
-2.33

-3

-1.99

-2.13

-2.2

-2.43

-4

-3.79

-3.81

-5

-4.54

-4.85

-6
Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

FII (in Billion)

250

Oct-15

Nov-15

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

Dec-15

DII (in Billion)

211

200
150

117 115

100

86

120

67

53

50

123

103

85

63

105

69

0
-50
-100

-58

-14

-33

-65

-28
-71
-122

-150
-200

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Jul-15

-169
Aug-15

Sep-15

-17

-55

Oct-15

21

Nov-15 Dec-15

Jan-16

-157
Feb-16

Mar-16

Apr-16

www.jhaveritrade.com

Differential Voting Right Shares

Meaning
The DVR share is equity shares with lower voting rights as compared to the ordinary equity shares holders. As ordinary
process of the company. But DVR share holders can not cast the same vote as the shares hold.
Ordinary Share Holders

Basic Difference

100 ordinary shares holds = 100 Voting Right

( Applicable to all the company )

DVR Share Holders

100 DVR Holds = 1 voting right

Purpose of DVR
Hostile Takeover
A takeover which goes against the wishes of the target company's management and board of directors.
DVR prevents the major harm of hostile take over. As more number of shares are available publicly, there is a strong
possibility of hostile take over.
As the voting right is less, so it can prevent hostile takeover.
Dilution of Voting Right
As in ordinary shares inventor can cast as many as vote, the shares posses.
It will difficult for the company to take decision if there is difference of opinion by various shareholders by there voting
right that can effect the growth of the company.
DVR prevent dilution of Voting Right.
Strategic Investor and Fund Raising
Many big investors want to invest a huge amount of money for capital appreciation and want become a part of companies
strategic decision. These investors are not interested in control of the company.
DVR will help them to fulfill there purpose. Through this company can raise huge amount of funds.

Global and Indian scenario

Globally, issuing a DVR is not a new. Many international companies have already issued DVR such as Google, Via come,
Roche , BMW , Samsung electronics and others , Berkshire Hathaway and others. As per the Section 86 of the Companies
Act, 1956 from 13/12/2000, the Indian company can issue DVRS share for various corporate purposes. Tata Motors became
the first company which issued DVR in Indian capital market in 2008 after eight years of gap followed by Pantaloon Retail,
Jain Irrigation, Gujarat NRE Coke.

22

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JSL Classroom

equity share holders can give same number of vote as the number of shares hold and take the part in the decision making

Differential Voting Right Shares

JSL Classroom

Why should investors invest in DVR ?

Advantages

Disadvantages

High Divided : As Investors are not getting proper

voting right, companies which are issuing DVR will give
more divided to DVR share holders as compared to
ordinary share holders.

Lack of Awareness : This is the new instrument for the

investors so many investors are mot aware about it and
its benefits and this leads to illiquidity in the stocks.

For Example : Tata Motors gives 205% divided to DVR

holders as compared to 200% to ordinary share holders
in FY12

ROI is slow as compared to ordinary shares : The

lack of awareness and low liquidity will become hurdle to
targeted price.

Capital Appreciation : As the difference between the

share price of ordinary equity and DVR will be narrow ,
investors can sell their holdings and earn return on that.
Best instrument for Retail Investors : The investors
who are not interested in the voting or do not want to
take part in the companys decision making process can
go for the DVR.
Available at discount price : Its available at discount
prices as compared to ordinary shares.

Various DVRS issued by Indian companies

Tata Motors
In November 2008, Tata Motors Limited issued 6.4 Cr. equity shares with differential voting rights as a part of its ` 4,145
Cr. rights issue to pay back the loan taken for the acquisition of Jaguar-Land Rover. The rights issue portion comprising of
normal equity shares was priced at ` 340 per share whereas the DVRS with 1:10 voting rights were priced at ` 305 per
share, i.e., at a discount of 10.29 per cent.
Future Retail DVR
In February 2009, the company issued bonus equity shares with differential voting rights to the existing equity
shareholders of the company in the ratio of one bonus DVRS for every ten equity shares held. These bonus DVRS were
termed as Class B shares. Ten Class B shares entitled the holders thereof to cast one vote.

Conclusion
The shares with inferior voting rights may be beneficial for the retail investors as these shares would not only be issued at a
discount to the prevailing market price of the normal equity shares but also provide better dividend yield. So the investors
interested in high divided and can wait for long time for capital appreciation can go for DVRS.

23

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JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Small Cap )

Objective of Ideal Portfolio :
The objective of this portfolio is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing in concentrated portfolio of large cap

Stock Selection Methodology : Based on various fundamental parameters and valuation check along with certain themes
like Cyclical, Bottom Up, Sector specific, Policy Initiative/ push , Evergreen.
Key Risks : Macro economic / political condition and systematic risk, corporate performance risk
Stock

Weights
Weights

Sector

Suggestions

Price**

CMP*

Target

Potential Upside

Maruti Suzuki

Automobile

7%

Accumulate

4639

3734

5200

39%

KEC International

Capital Goods

5%

Accumulate

157

126

180

43%

Bharat Forge

Casting and Forgins

8%

Accumulate

888

796

1200

51%

Ultratech Cement

Cement

7%

Buy

2824

3277

3400

4%

8%

Buy

236

199

368

85%

Dewan Housing Finance Housing Finance

Sun Pharma

Pharma

7%

Accumulate

815

808

1041

29%

Inox Wind

Power

8%

Buy

360

270

488

81%

Torrent Power

Power

8%

Buy

181

235

280

0%

State Bank of India

PSU Bank

7%

Accumulate

228

197

325

65%

Axis Bank

Public Bank

7%

Accumulate

450

470

620

32%

VRL Logistics

Logistics

5%

Buy

432

399

457

15%

Torrent Pharma

Pharma

8%

Buy

1479

1426

1840

29%

Ashoka Buidcon

Infrastructure

5%

Buy

200

142

205

44%

Ahluwali Contracts

Infrastructure
Consumer
Non-Durable

5%

Buy

282

291

368

26%

5%

Accumulate

300

255

287

13%

Everday Industries

Comparative Portfolio Returns

Particulars

Return Since Inception

Return Since Inception

Particulars

Ideal Portfolio Return

-6.34%

Nifty

-1.84%

Value Buy (100%)

-15.43%

Sensex

-1.36%

CNX Small Cap

-9.34%

CNX Mid Cap

-2.75%

Notes : *CMP as on 25/04/2016., Price ** on recommendation and as on 01/01/2016 , Return since inception indicates
from 1st Jan -2016

Investment Horizon : 9-12 Months

24

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Ideal Portfolio

and growth oriented mid cap companies. This will help to generate meaningful wealth for Investors from Equity Market.

JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Diversified Equity )

Ideal Portfolio

Objective : The aim is to generate long term capital appreciation from a portfolio that is not part of the leading stocks by
market capitalization. The aim is to include and invests in companies that have immense growth potential as they are
operating on a smaller base.

Stock Selection Methodology : Based on various valuation parameters and finding out early stage companies
based on sound business model and available at cheap valuation

Key Risks :
Small-cap stocks are not tracked closely by market/ equity analysts and that is why the real value of good small-cap stocks
can remain undiscovered for long. This makes investing in them risky. The risk associated with large cap funds also
associated with small cap ( see last page). Small companies are relatively weak in terms of governance, dividend policies
and professionalism of the board. This makes them risky.
Stock

Sector

Weights

Suggestions

CMP*

Target

Potential Upside

AYM Syntex

Textile

10%

Accumulate

106

223

110%

Good Year

Tyre

10%

Accumulate

507

868

71%

KPR Mills

Textile

10%

Accumulate

857

1120

31%

KRBL

Food Processing

10%

Accumulate

215

360

67%

Garwale Wall Ropes

Textile

10%

Accumulate

365

550

51%

Smartlink Network

IT- Hardware

10%

Accumulate

103

156

51%

MPS

Printing

10%

Accumulate

689

1150

67%

MT Educare

Education

10%

Accumulate

173

220

27%

Shaily Engineering Plastics

Capital Goods

10%

Accumulate

607

890

47%

Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd.

Textile

10%

Accumulate

871

1149

32%

Small Cap Portfolio Allocation

Diversified Equity Portfolio Allocation

Power

16%

Pharmaceuticals

15%

Banks

14%

Infrastructure

10%

Casting and Forgings

Housing Finance

Textile

30%

Computer - Hardware

10%

Education

10%

8%

Food Processing

10%

8%

Pharmaceuticals

10%

Automobile

7%

Printing and Stationery

10%

Cement

7%

Capital Goods

5%

Retail

10%

Consumer Non-Durable

5%

Tyre

10%

Logistics

5%

Notes : *CMP as on 23/04/2016.

Investment Horizon : 18 - 24 Months

25

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Monthly Technical Picks - Equity

Monthly Technical Picks

SRTRANSFIN

ABAN

We have observed a double bottom formed on weekly charts. Its a

very strong bullish pattern. The stock has given breakout above
neckline which is placed at 950 levels. The Directional moving index
has given positive crossover and ADX has started rising on weekly
charts. We advise the stock to buy on every dip for a strong up move
from current levels.

We have observed a Channel breakout on weekly charts. The channel

pattern consists of two parallel trend lines which serve as boundaries
for price action. The lower trend line serves as support and the upper
trend line serves as resistance. Important note about channel is the
more times the channels trend lines are validated (price touches them
and retraces to the opposite direction), the stronger the pattern is. The
stock has given breakout above 210 levels.The pattern is confirmed
with rise in volume.

BUY BTWN 1030-1050 TGT 1215 SL 950

BUY BTWN 210-220 TGT 300 SL 170

ICICI BANK

BANKINDIA

We had observed a Rounding Top pattern on Monthly Charts. A

rounding top represents a sell signal. The initial upwards trend
becomes exhausted as the demand for the stock dries up. The
reversal to the downward slope of the rounding top indicates that
demand has tapered off and a surplus supply is present, basically
there are more sellers than buyers. A rounding top represents a
bearish take on the stock.

We have observed that stock has made lows in February and then
bounced back to test its 21 Day moving average at 100 Rs levels. But
again stock given negative crossover in Stochastics and its ADX is
moving continuously above 40 levels suggests stock is weak and
every rise should be used to positional sell the stock.

SELL BTWN 220-230 TGT 170 SL 260

SELL BTWN 88-90 TGT 74 SL 98

26

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Monthly Technical Picks - Currency

GBP INR

Monthly Technical Picks

USD INR

We had said last month that Doji is formed and range for month is 9498 for April month. On Monthly Chart, Stochastics was oversold last
month and the pair has made low of 93.70 and bounced back from
93.70 to 98 levels. Moreover, Pair has been trading above its 50 day
moving average 94 and below is 21 Day moving average at 97.95,
which shows that near to medium term trend is up. The short term
momentum is up and can go to 99.50-100 levels.

Last Month, We had said that Pair is in strong uptrend in monthly

charts so will find support at 65 levels and we can expect consolidation
for the pair between 65-67 in whole month. The pair has strong
support at 66.30-66.00 levels and strong resistance at 67.10-67.30
levels. The ADX had entered below 20 on daily and weekly charts so
we expect further consolidation between 66-68 levels for coming
month till there is breakout on either side.

EUR INR

EURINR has formed Bullish Candlestick pattern on Daily charts

indicating for upside movement. Moreover, Pair has been trading
above its 21 & 50 day moving average, which shows that near to
medium term trend is up. On broader basis, EURINR has been facing
strong resistance which comes at 76.30 level since last 3-4 weeks,
which shows any close above this level, Pair could give good upside
movement upto the level of 77.40-77.95. Meanwhile, Pair has good
support at 73.80 level which is a 100 week moving average, which
shows that short to medium term trend is up.

JPY INR

Pair has crossed 61.80 levels which was strong resistance till last
month on daily charts. The pair has given close above that level on
monthly closing basis. On weekly chart JPY INR pair is showing
strength and has strong support at 58.00 levels and on monthly chart
JPY INR pair has strong support at 56.00 level. The upside target
remains 64.5-65 levels. The Pair is trading above its 21 Day Moving
average (56.74) and 50 Day Moving average (57.42) levels.

27

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Monthly Technical Picks - Index

Nifty

Bank Nifty
The index opened at 16099, made high of 17029, made a low of 15440 and closed the month at 16795. Last month we had
said that Banknifty should face stiff resistance at 16300-16400 zone where supply is expected to come and if Banknifty
manages to close above this zone on weekly closing basis, then it might head towards 17000-17500 levels. Banknifty made
high of 17029 level in April. Banknifty is in strong uptrend and buy on dips is recommended with positional stop loss of
16000. The crucial resistance remains at 17150 levels But Stochastics indicator is suggesting positive momentum to
continue.If Banknifty manages to close above that for 2 consecutive days, then the next target remains 18000 levels.

28

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Monthly Technical Outlook

The index opened at 7718, made a high of 7992, made a low of 7516 and closed the month at 7849. Last month we had
clearly mentioned that Nifty is in Uptrend above 7550 but it should face stiff resistance at 7700-7780 zone where supply is
expected to come and if Nifty manages to close above this zone on weekly closing basis, then nifty might head towards 7930
levels. The next crucial resistance is at 7970-8000 levels which is 50% retracement of fall from high of 9119 in Mar 2015 to
low of 6825 in Feb 2016. If nifty manages to close above this zone for consecutively 2 days then Nifty will be heading towards
8250 levels. Nifty is in uptrend and has strong support at 7700 levels. Stochastics indicator is suggesting positive
momentum to continue. We advise buy on dips strategy in largecaps with positional stop loss of 7700.

Monthly Technical Commodity

Monthly Technical Picks - Commodity

Bullion
Bullion prices last week settled with gains where bullion prices ended with little gains as traders were waited for further clues
from on interest rates from the Federal Reserve while Silver prices reached the 11 month top helped by optimism over
Chinese growth, and a break above key chart resistance. Metal traders continued to digest relatively dovish comments from
European Central Bank president Mario Draghi regarding the likelihood of future easing measures from the central bank. It
came after the ECB's Governing Council left its benchmark interest rate for the euro zone at a record-low of zero and its
deposit rate unchanged at Minus0.4%. More critically, Draghi noted that the ECB could continue to hold interest rates at
comparative low levels beyond the expiration of a comprehensive 80 billion a month Quantitative Easing program in
March, 2017. The decision came days before the start of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day meeting
on April 26-27. At the meeting, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a
targeted range between 0.25 and 0.50%. Elsewhere, factory conditions in the U.S. remain soft as the PMI Manufacturing
Index flash reading for April fell 0.6 to 50.8, sharply below expectations of 52.0. The dollar remained higher against the yen
on speculation the Bank of Japan was considering applying negative rates to its lending program for financial institutions,
effectively starting to pay banks to borrow its cash. The precious metal lost momentum as the greenback began to climb
following inaction by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. The US dollar booked further gains, especially against
the yen, after rumors emerged on Friday that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could add a negative loan rate to its arsenal next
week. The BoJ has been charging lenders a 10-basis-point levy for parking cash, undermining profits in the financial
industry. Factory conditions in the U.S. remain soft as the PMI Manufacturing Index flash reading for April fell 0.6 to 50.8,
sharply below expectations of 52.0. Nevertheless, April's flash reading represents its lowest level since the start of the
recovery of global financial markets. Gold demand in India improved this week as jewellery retailers reopened stores after a
strike, but the world's second biggest bullion market remained at a discount to the global benchmark as purchases across
the region were curbed by higher prices. Indian jewellers went on an indefinite strike since the start of March in protest over
the reintroduction of a sales tax on gold jewellery after four years. They started opening shops from last week. India's gold
imports in March slumped 80.5 percent from a year ago to $973 million, the government said.
Recommendation
BUY GOLD @ 28800 SL 28400 TGT 29500. BUY SILVER @ 39500 SL 38700 TGT 40800-41500
Energy
Last week crude oil prices ended with around 8.82 percent gains as prices notched their third straight week of gains as
market sentiment turned more upbeat amid signs a persistent global supply glut may be easing. Strong gasoline
consumption in the United States, increasing signs of declining production around the world and oilfield outages have
underpinned a return to investment in the sector. Traders also pointed to strong crude imports to China in March as
supporting prices. Still, some warned that the oil market was still far from balancing supply and demand. Falling output,
especially in the United States, where many producers have reeled from an up to 70 percent oil price rout since mid- 2014,
has helped to lift the market. U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a fifth week in a row to the lowest level since November 2009, oil
services company Baker Hughes said. Despite the recent rally, oil markets remain oversupplied as between 1 million and 2
million barrels of crude are being pumped out of the ground every day in excess of demand, leaving storage tanks around
the world filled to the brim with unsold fuel. Russia and Saudi Arabia have since said they would consider producing more oil
if they see sufficient demand. Natural gas had their best week of the year gaining by 11.67 percent on signs that summer-like
temperatures in the East will help trim a supply glut. Above-normal temperatures across most of the lower 48 states will rise
in the South at the start of May, stoking demand for the power-plant fuel to run air conditioners. Preliminary pipeline data
shows that stockpiles may increase by about 55 billion cubic feet this week, way lower than the year-earlier gain of 84
billion. A gas surplus to the five-year average has narrowed for two straight weeks from a four-year high on an unexpectedly
chilly start to April. Futures extended gains after the governments midday Global Forecast System showed cooler weather
late next week in the Midwest to the East followed by an unusually warm start to May in the South, adding both heating and
cooling demand, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC. Gas inventories totaled 2.484 trillion cubic feet on April 15,
48.5 percent above the fiveyear average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Inventories are on track
to reach an all-time high of 4.112 trillion by the end of October after the contiguous states experienced an unusually warm
winter and production rose to a record.
Recommendation
BUY CRUDE OIL @ 2800 SL 2680 TGT 2950-3080. BUY NATURAL GAS @ 138 SL 130 TGT 145-152

29

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Balanced Funds
Balanced funds are a combination of equity and debt. Equity oriented Balanced Funds maintain at least 65% of exposure in
perspective, the long term capital gains tax (Investments period of more than one year) is free for this category of Balanced
Funds. The dividends earned on these funds are also tax free.
There are many types of Hybrid or Balanced Funds like MIPs, Asset Allocation Funds and Capital Protection Funds. But
funds which are equity oriented with 65%-80% exposure in equity market but with some debt portfolio as well are called
Balanced Funds. They basically try to mix the benefits of both the worlds so as to provide a one-for-all solution to its
customers. It is quite a good choice for someone who wants to invest in equity market but is not too keen in taking risk on the
entire portfolio. Balanced Funds usually have a good large cap stock portfolio with a mixture of good quality debt securities.

Why Balanced Funds?

Good for first timers
Balanced funds are especially good for first time investors so that they avoid the market volatility by not opting for a 100%
equity fund and yet get the return of the equity markets with a hedging opportunity with the debt portfolio. Some experts say it
is very good for new-to-equities kind of investors.
Investing Cushion
When the markets are in doldrums, balanced funds have always created a cushion as against equity funds when the market
corrects. This can also be considered as a hedging technique as 35% of the portfolio is almost at all times in debt securities
which is unaffected by the equity market volatility. Therefore, by having lesser equity exposure, the risk is definitely under
control but the returns also do not match with that of the equity returns. For example when the market crashed in 2008, an
average well diversified equity fund fell about 53% whereas a balanced fund fell by about 42% only. So, it could save the
fund by about 11% on an average but when the markets recovered, the equity funds would recover much faster whereas
balanced funds would have more consistent lower returns.
Equity Taxation with Lesser Risk
With debt long term capital gain taxation being increased to the 3 year horizon, debt funds have become quite unpopular.
Balanced funds and arbitrage funds have gained popularity in the interim as these funds enjoy equity taxation.
Portfolio Allocation
Since balanced funds provide a healthy mix of both worlds and are thus placed in between the equity and the debt funds in
the risk-return tradeoff, it gets lesser affected if any of the assets underperform as it has a back-up of the other asset class.
Thus, if equity underperforms, debt can actually help in hedging and also provide average return. On the other hand if debt
funds underperform with the G-Sec average, the fund piggy backs the equity portion. However, the converse is also true. In
case of a bull run, the balanced funds do not gallop as fast as their equity counterparts.
How do Balanced Funds work?
The intrinsic goal of all balanced funds is to ensure a stable return when the market falls. So they have quite a contrarian goal
as opposed to pure equity funds. Thus, when the stocks rise, the balanced funds should perform well, but when it falls, the

27
30

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Mutual Fund

domestic equities and can invest upto 35% in debt securities depending upon the fund objective. In fact from the taxation

Balanced Funds

Mutual Funds

performance should not fall very low.

This would bring the portfolio mix to 65% of equity and 35% of debt and this is done on a regular basis. The converse is also
true when the market falls. Even though the illustration looks complicated, it actually does wonders to the stability of the
portfolio. The portfolio systematically purchases equity when the market falls and sells when the market rises. This is what
everyone should do but actually does the exact opposite. When the markets rose to 21000 in 2008 Jan, everyone chose to
invest in equity but when it fell in end 2008, people feared the equity market and chose to stay away from it.
Experts say: Be greedy when others are fearful, Be fearful when other are greedy.
Balanced Funds Performances in the last 10 years:

Year

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Balanced
Funds Return

25.54

35.03

-31.94

52.73

14.08

-13.41

23.33

4.77

34.59

3.16

Large Cap
Funds Return

39.24

57.63

-53.63

77.2

16.7

-24.48

28.74

4.26

40.45

-0.86

Sensex Open

9,422.49

13,827.77 20,325.27

9,720.55

17,473.45 20,621.61 15,534.67 19,513.45 21,222.19 27,485.77

Sensex Close

13786.91

20,286.99

9,647.31

17464.81

20,509.09 15,454.92 19,426.71 21,170.68 27,499.42 26,117.54

Sensex Difference

Increase

Increase

Decrease

Increase

Increase

Decrease

Increase

Increase

Increase

Decrease

From the above example, you can see that the balanced funds have sometimes done better than large caps and sometimes
not. To evaluate the data, let us consider the years 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2014. In these 6 years, out of the 10
years, the Large Cap Equity Funds have given better return than that of Balanced Funds as there has been an upward rise in
the Sensex in these years. However, whenever the market fell in the year 2008, 2011 and 2015 and in a volatile year like
2013 the balanced funds as a category has fallen less and thus we can conclude that these gave better return than that of
large cap funds as a category.

Conclusion
If you are a retail investor and wish to opt for a fund wherein you would like to invest and then forget the same for a good long
time, then Balanced Funds can be one of the best suited solutions for your need. Balanced Funds are quite a good option as
it provides exposure to both equity and debt securities but the same cannot be used as a comparison tool against pure
equity fund returns. Balanced Funds are tax efficient as the long term capital gains are tax free and also the dividend
received from balanced funds are also tax free.
You thus get to have the best of both the worlds - good exposure to equity with a 65%, equity tax advantage and yet a hedge
towards the market volatility by having a 35% of debt securities.

26
31

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Date

Sun May 1

Country/Event
Manufacturing PMI
Non-Manufacturing PMI
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Construction Spending m/m
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
EU Economic Forecasts
PPI m/m
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Spanish Unemployment Change
Spanish Services PMI
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
Trade Balance
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Factory Orders m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
Caixin Services PMI
Unemployment Claims
Natural Gas Storage
French Gov Budget Balance
French Trade Balance
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Non-Farm Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
German Factory Orders m/m
French Industrial Production m/m
Sentix Investor Confidence
Labor Market Conditions Index m/m
CPI y/y
PPI y/y
German Industrial Production m/m
German Trade Balance
Italian Industrial Production m/m
NFIB Small Business Index
Wholesale Inventories m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
10-y Bond Auction
French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
M2 Money Supply y/y
New Loans
Industrial Production m/m
Unemployment Claims
Import Prices m/m
JOLTS Job Openings
Natural Gas Storage
German Prelim GDP q/q
Flash GDP q/q
Core Retail Sales m/m
PPI m/m
Retail Sales m/m
Core PPI m/m
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Industrial Production y/y
Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
French Final CPI m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
NAHB Housing Market Index

Date
Tue May 17

Wed May 18

Thu May 19

Fri May 20
Mon May 23

Tue May 24

Wed May 25

Thu May 26

Fri May 27

Mon May 30
Tue May 31

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All Day
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7:15pm
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Country/Event
TIC Long-Term Purchases
Italian Trade Balance
Trade Balance
Building Permits
CPI m/m
Core CPI m/m
Housing Starts
Capacity Utilization Rate
Industrial Production m/m
German WPI m/m
Final CPI y/y
Crude Oil Inventories
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Current Account
Italian Retail Sales m/m
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Unemployment Claims
German PPI m/m
Existing Home Sales
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
French Flash Services PMI
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
German Flash Services PMI
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
German Final GDP q/q
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
ZEW Economic Sentiment
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Durable Goods Orders m/m
CB Leading Index m/m
Belgian NBB Business Climate
New Home Sales
GfK German Consumer Climate
German Ifo Business Climate
Goods Trade Balance
HPI m/m
Crude Oil Inventories
ECB Financial Stability Review
Unemployment Claims
Pending Home Sales m/m
Natural Gas Storage
French Consumer Spending m/m
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
Prelim GDP q/q
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
German Prelim CPI m/m
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
German Retail Sales m/m
M3 Money Supply y/y
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Personal Spending m/m
Chicago PMI
CB Consumer Confidence

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