Flood-Climate Change-Ali-final1 PDF

Effect of Climate Change on Floods of
Bangladesh: Learning from the past
Bangladesh
Dr. Md. Shahjahan Ali , Associate Professor

Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Area of the country = 144,000 sq. km

Population =160 million
Density = 1150/sq. km.
Location of Bangladesh in the Indian Ocean
Water Resources
Brahmaputra (Inflow
626 BCM)
Meghna (Inflow 195 BCM
River System :
24,000 km (about 500 rivers)
3.3 %
of the total landmass Ganges
Still Water Bodies:
(Inflow 380 BCM)
7,400 km2
5.3% of total landmass
Annual Average Rainfall:
2300 mm
Trans-boundary Flow:
57
Lower Meghna
rivers
B A Y OF B E N G A L
River System
Brahmaputra Basin
552,000 sq.km
GBM Basin
CHINA
INDIA
BHUTAN
Ganges Basin
1,087,000 sq.km
BANGLADESH
INDIA
Drainage basin inside Bangladesh

Drainage basin outside Bangladesh
7.5 %
92 %
BAY O F B E N GAL
Meghna
Basin
82,000
sq.km
Geographically, Bangladesh is situated at the tip of a funnel, through which huge amount of water
discharged in monsoon
Depression on the ocean, Cyclones, tides and storm surges can easily affect the country through the
unprotected shore
Therefore, Bangladesh is a disaster prone country. Effect of Climate Change magnifies the
governing factors of disaster.
Major Effects of Climate Change in Bangladesh
Sea level rise

Natural disasters:
Floods
cyclones
droughts
Saline water intrusion
Economy loses
Human casualty
Lose of traditional lifestyles.
Biodiversity losses
Diseases spreads
Famines etc.
Outline of the Presentation

1.
Disaster Profile of Bangladesh
2.
Impact of CC on the Return period and frequency of floods
3.
Impact of CC on the intensity of Flood
4.
Historical Time-series data of Rainfall

Historical Time-series data of river discharge and
Historical Time-series data of Floods
Change of Return Period and probability of flood
How CC impact magnifies the intensity of flood

Analysis of Two Mega Floods (1988 and 1998)
Temporary Sea Level Rise in the Bay of Bangle and Its Impact on Flooding
Impact of CC on other Disasters (brief)
Cyclone & Tornadoes

Salinity Intrusion
Ecosystem of Sundarban

1.
2.
3.
4.


Cyclone & Tornadoes

Salinity Intrusion
Vulnerability Profile of Bangladesh

(a) Human exposure
Disaster Type
Population exposed
World ranking
Flood
19,279,660
1st out of 162 countries
Cyclone
4,641,060
6th out of 89 countries
Drought
642227
63rd out of 184 countries
(b) Economic exposure

Disaster Type GDP exposed
World ranking
Flood
9.74 bill. USD
3rd out of 162 countries
Cyclone
2.36 bill. USD
12th out of 89 countries
(Source: Global Assessment Report, UNDP, 2009)
No. of People Killed for 1900-1981

(Total = 2.4 mil., Avg. = 29600/yr.)
drought
6%
Flood
20%
Storm
19%
Affected People nos. for 1900-1981

(Total = 119 mil., Avg. = 1.5 mil./yr)
drought
12%
Storm
21%
Flood
2%
Storm
74%
drought
79%
Flood
67%
No. of Disaster for 1900-1981

(Total = 74, Avg. = 0.91 nos/yr.)
Disaster Year 1900-1981

Landslide
1%
Tsunami
drought
0.5%
2%
Storm
51%
Earthquak
3%
Extreme
Temp.
9%
No. of People Killed for 1982-2011

(Total = 0.18 mil., Avg. = 6000/yr)
Extreme
Temp.
1%
Flood
7%
Affected People nos. for 1982-2011

(Total = 308 mil., Avg. =10.3 mil./yr.)
Storm
17%
drought
8%
Flood
33%
Storm
92%
No. of Disaster for 1982-2011

(Total = 202, Avg. = 6.7 nos./yr.)
Flood
75%
Economic Loss for 1982-2011

(Total USD = 16.9 Billion, Avg. = 563 mil./yr.)
Economic Loss for 1900-1981

(Total USD = 1.25 Billion, Avg. = 15 mil./yr )
Tsunami
3%
Storm
23%
Storm
32%
Flood
65%
Flood
77%
Disaster Parameters
1900-1981
1982-2011
Events/Year
0.91
6.7
No. of people killed/Year
29,600
6,000
Affected people/Year
1.5 Million
10.3 Million
Economic loss/year
15 Mil. USD
563 Mill USD
Disaster nos., no. of affected people & economic loss increases with time in an
alarming rate.
Is the Climate Change a future Threat for Bangladesh?

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable
country in terms of inherent natural
calamities, which is already facing the
challenges of climate change
so
Climate Change is not a future threat
for Bangladesh any more. It has
already affected the country, it is the
reality !
Location of Disaster-prone Areas
Drought
Flood
High saline zone
Cyclone prone
(surge ht. >1m)
North
East
West
South

1.
2.
Impact of CC on the Return period and frequency of

floods

3.
4.
Cyclone & Tornadoes
Salinity Intrusion
2.1 Climate Change Impacts on the Trend of historical

rainfalls in Bangladesh:
Monsoon Rainfall (mm)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
From the trend line for 50 years of rainfall data, it is found that the
monsoon rainfall increases very gently as 2.65 mm/year.
These changing phenomena in rainfall in Bangladesh can be
explain as the probable impact of climate change (IPCC,2007).
Rainfall Anomaly
Rainfall Anomaly (%) = (P Pavg)* 100/ Pavg
30
Flood
Severe risk
Anom aly (% )
20
Moderate risk
10
Low risk
0
- 10
- 20
- 30
1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Moderate risk
Severe risk
Drought
Ye a r
Drought events are in decreasing and wet events are found in

increasing trend.
2.2 Increase of Brahmaputra River Discharge
Yearly increasing rate about 54 cumec

About 7.5% increased in 50 years
Fluctuation in the variation of

monsoon discharge is increased
60000
50000
1956-1980
40000
1981-2005
30000
20000
10000
t
Se
pt
em
be
O
ct
ob
er
No
ve
m
be
r
De
ce
m
be
r
Au
gu
s
Ju
ly
Ju
ne
ay
M
Ap
ril
ar
ch
M
Ja
nu
a
Fe
br
ua
ry
ry
25 years Avg. Monthly Discharge (cumec)
Brahmaputra River Discharge is Increasing
The Averaged monthly Brahmaputra discharge in Bangladesh

is increased about 8% in 50 years.
2.3 Climate Change Impacts on the Trend of Historical Floods:

120,000
80
70
100,000
80,000
50
60,000
40
30
40,000
% of total Area
Area (sq. km)
60
20
20,000
10
0
1954 1956 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1980 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
The top 5 floods in terms of inundated area occurred in last 20 years in 60 years of history.
24% of the country inundated in a normal flood, the highest flood inundates 67% in 1998
Inundation to the extent of 24% area of the country is beneficial for crops and ecological
balance (AFR, 2008). But the flood more than 24% cause direct and indirect damages.
Lets define, Moderate flood as (245)% of area inundated, Extreme high flood as >29% and
Extreme low flood as < 19% area inundated flood, then
Climate Change Impacts on the Trend of Historical Floods:

120,000
80
70
100,000
50
60,000
40
30
40,000
Normal Flood
% of total Area
Area (sq. km)
60
80,000
20
20,000
10
0
1954 1956 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1980 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Table : Statistics of time series of floods based on yearly flooding area (% of total area of
the country)
Time-span
Average
Flooding
area (%)
Standard
deviation
(%)
Nos. of
Normal
Floods
Nos. of
extreme
high floods
Nos. of
low floods
1954-1972
23.6
5.1
13
01
02
1973-1990
16.9
16.3
04
03
09
1991-2007
20.7
17.3
06
03
07
The normal floods are converted to either extreme high floods or the extreme low floods.
2.3Return Period & Probability:16

High Flood events
(Inundation > 29% area):
The return period decreased
The probability increased by
about 3 times in recent decades
Return Period (Years)
13.5
1st set (1954-1981)
12
2nd set (1981-2008)

8
5.4
3.4
2.7
1.7
Low Flood event

(Inundation <19% area):
The return period decreased in
recent decades
The probability increase by about
1.4 times.
High Flood
80
Moderate Flood
Low Flood
1st set (1954-1981)

2nd set (1981-2008)
59
60
52
Probability (%)
Moderate Flood events

(Inundation =19 - 29% area):
The return period increased
The probability is reduced to half
(1/2) of decreased by about 1.4
times.
1.9
37
40
30
19
20
7
0
High Flood
Moderate Flood
Low Flood
Return Period & Probability: Example

Bahadurabad
Bahadurabad point of Brahmaputra river

For Q= 76,137 m3/s, Data for 1956 to 2007
Probability of occurrence of characteristic floods at Brahmaputra

river is increased from 4% to 28% over the last 50 years.
Summary-1:
The monsoon rainfall increases very gently as 2.65 mm/year
drought events are in decreasing and wet events are found in
increasing trend.
The Averaged monthly discharge of Brahmaputra river is
increased about 8% in 50 years.
The top 5 extreme floods in terms of inundation area are occurred
in last 20 years in 60 years of history.
The number of moderate floods are decreased and they are
converted to either extreme high floods or the extreme low floods.
The probability of extreme flood events are found to be
increased up to 3 times in recent decades.
These temporal changes of hydrologic scenarios in Bangladesh
can be explained as the impact of climate change.

1.
2.

3.

Temporary Sea Level Rise in the Bay of Bangle and
Its Impact on Flooding
4.

Cyclone & Tornadoes
Salinity Intrusion
3.1 How the CC will affect the Flood Intensity?

Prediction of change of climate in Bangladesh:
By the year 2100
Temperature increase = 2.4 0C
Precipitation increase = 11.8% (Monsoon)
SLR = 30cm ~ 1 m (9 cm ~ 88 cm by IPCC)
Predicted Changes in Monsoon river flow :

For 2 0C Temperature rise and 10% increase in Precipitation
Q Ganges will increase 19%
Q Brahmaputra will increase 13%
Q Meghna will increase 11%
(Source: IWM, 2009)
How the CC will affect the Flood Intensity?

Impact of Climate Change in Bangladesh
Increased River
Discharge (Aprox. 14%)
Sea Level Rise

(Backwater effect
to river discharge)
Increase in
Inundation depth
Increase in duration
of flood
Increase of Flood Intensity

Flood Intensity Index duration of flood (days) X
the depth of the flood above the danger level
Analysis of 1988 and 1998 Floods:

Two mega Floods in the history of Bangladesh
inundated area: 67% in 1998

61% in 1988
Estimated damage: 2.8 billion USD in 1998
1.2 billion USD in 1988
1998 Flood was the most devastating flood
displaced more than 30 million people

20 million homeless.
Total Station : 35
H.W.L in 199816 st.
H.W.L in 198 19 st.
2008 (Normal Flood)

2
1998
1988
Depth of inundation
2008 (Normal Flood)
100
Duration of flood
80
1998
1988
71
68
66
Ta
ra
gh
at
ar
ay
an
ga
nj
N
M
ym
en
s
ha
ka
in
gh
Ja
m
al
pu
r
Ar
ic
ha
Se
ra
jg
an
j
Ba
ha
du
r
ab
ad
hi
lm
ar
i
Ku
ri g
ra
m
Water depth above Danger Level (m)

No. of Days for WL above DL
Historical Mega
Floods
(Brahmaputra
Basin)
66 65
57
60
48
40
30
31
27
22
16
20
44
36
33
31
23
15
10
t
ag
ha
ng
a
ya
ar
a
N
Ta
r
nj
a
ha
k
D
gh
ym
M
Ja
en
si
n
al
p
ur
ha
Ar
ic
ra
jg
Se
ur
a
ha
d
Ba
an
j
d
ba
ar
i
hi
lm
C
Ku
rig
ra
m
Fig.: Inundation depth and durations at some locations in Brahmaputra

Basin.
Although the depth of inundation among two mega floods does not differ too
much, the duration of flood in 1998 was much higher (up to 4 times) than 1988 flood.
Depth of inundation and Duration of Historical Mega Floods

Water depth above Danger Level (m)
2008 (Normal Flood)
1998
1988
Depth of inundation
0
Dinajpur
Rajshahi
Hardinge Bridge
Goalundo
Bhagyakul
Gorai Rly Bridge
No. of Days for WL above DL
100
2008 (Normal Flood)
80
1998
1988
72
68
60
Duration of flood
47
41
40
28
24
27
25 25
23
20
3
0
Dinajpur
Rajshahi
Hardinge Bridge
Goalundo
Bhagyakul
Gorai Rly Bridge
Fig.: Inundation depth and durations at some locations in Ganges Basin

much, the duration of flood in 1998 was much higher (about double) than 1988 flood.
Flood Intensity Index

Flood Intensity Index the depth of the flood above the danger level X
duration of flood (days)
1988
1998
40
20
2007
1.07 m x 60 days
60
1.09 m x
31 days
Flood Intensity Index (m-day)
80
Brahmaputra
Ganges
Total
much, the Flood Intensity Index in 1998 was much higher (about double) than 1988
flood.
Mean Monsoon Rainfall (mm)
Although the depth of inundation among two mega floods does

not differ too much, the duration of flood in 1998 was much (up
to 4 times) higher than 1988 flood. Why?
Total monsoon
rainfall
1500
1000
500
Ganges
Basin
Brahmaputra
Basin
Meghna
Basin
Fig. Comparison of Monsoon Rainfall in 1998 with 1988 over

three basins in Bangladesh
The Rainfall inside Bangladesh may not be the cause for

the prolonged flood in 1998
1988
1998
The upstream Rainfall may not be the cause for the prolonged
flood in 1998 in Bangladesh
Brahmaputra
4
Discharge (x 10 m3/s)
Time lag between Peak Discharges in

Ganges and Brahmaputra River Hydrograph
6
1.5 months
Ganges
0
0
10
11
12
Month
Ganges has high discharge in July to September (Peak at end of Aug.).

The Brahmaputra flow has high discharge in June to September (Peak at mid of July.).
The 1.5 months phase difference in the rising limb of their hydrograph
Probably, this is the reason for which most of the annual flood hyetographs show
double peaks: in July and end of Aug.
If the Brahmaputra does not discharge out its peak flow rapidly, its peak will
coincide with the peak of Ganges, it will case a extreme high flood.
2.4 The Sea Level Rise in Bay of Bangle during 1998 Monsoon period
Station name
Location
(Latitude,
Longitude)
MSL as per
BD tide Table
(m)
MSL during
1998 flood (m)
Rise in Sea
Level during
1998 flood (m)
Hiron point
21048N, 89028E
1.842
1.7
0.142
Khepu para
21054N, 90013E
2.332
2.06
0.272
Char Changa
22008N, 91006E
2.248
2.037
0.211
Sandwip
22029N, 91026E
3.377
3.243
0.134
Average Rise in Sea Level during 1998 flood (m) =
0.19
In 1998 July to September, 06 spring tides occur; and

during new moon and full moon time declination of
moon with the 21-230 Latitude was minimum.
On an average, 0.19 m SLR was observed at that
time (for a period of about 2.5 months), which
blocked the outflow of the swollen rivers into the
Bay of Bengal.
The Sea Level Rise due to elevated tides in the Bay
of Bengal was the main cause for the prolonged flood
in 1998
Summary-2:
Impact of SLR on Flooding
Although the depth of inundation among two mega floods does not differ
too much, the duration of flood in 1998 was much (up to 4 times) higher
than 1988 flood.
The average intensity of 1998 flood was observed to be two times stronger
than that of 1988 flood.
The temporary Sea Level Rise due to elevated tides in the Bay of Bengal
was the main cause for the prolonged flood in 1998.
On an average, 0.19 m SLR was observed at that time (for a period of
about 2.5 months), which blocked the outflow of the swollen rivers into
the Bay of Bengal.
The severity of flood in 1998 due to the impact of temporary

SLR of 0.19 m, gives a practical estimation how the SLR due to
climate change will affect the flooding scenario of Bangladesh.
Lets think about future Impacts!

1m sea level rise (2100)
Nominal Flooding
Nominal
1998
= 20% area flooded (IPCC, 2007)

= 24% area inundation
flooding + 1m SLR = 24% + 20% =?
flood + 1m SLR = 67% + 20% =?
0.19m
SLR prolonged the flood 2-3 times

1m SLR will prolonged the flood = ??? times

1.
2.


3.
4.

Temporary Sea Level Rise in the Bay of Bangle and Its Impact on
Flooding
Cyclone & Tornadoes

Salinity Intrusion
4.1. Climate Change impact

on Occurrence of Cyclone
12
Number of occurance
10
Affected people in million
8
6
4
2
0
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
Year of Cyclone
Frequency of major cyclone and affected

people (Source: BBS, 2007)
Coastal Area in Bangladesh
710 km long, 32 % of the country, 28% of the people

Among 19 coastal districts, 12 are directly exposed to the sea.
Since 1970, the no. of major cyclones striking Bangladesh is 26
Nos. of occurrences (and the no. of affected people) increased significantly
since 1990
People Killed in thousands
Among Top Ten Cyclones in the Worlds history,

5 in Bangadesh
300
200
100
Bangladesh, 1963
Bangladesh, 1965
India, 1942
China, 1912
India, 1935
Bangladesh, 1942
China, 1922
Myanmar, 2008
Bangladesh, 1991
Recent Cyclones:
Bangladesh, 1970
Cyclone Sidr (2007): displace 650,000 people and killed 3,447

cyclone Bijli and Aila (2009): displace about 200,000 people, water did not discharged
out to the sea, some of the area still waterlogged
Human Casualty decreased due to warning system and improved disaster management
4.2. Salinity Intrusion
Major Salinity
Intrusion in the
Southwest Region
Ganges Dependent Area
Increase of Salinity in
SW Bangladesh
Year
Salinity affected
Area (hector)
Salinity Level in Khulna

(EC > 2.3 dS/m)
Zone-A
Zone-B
1973
750,350
3.9
13.95
2009
950,780
24
47.78
% increase in
4 decades
26.71%
515%
243%
Mudflats (slope)
Main river channel
Ridges or levees
4.3. Climate Change Impact on Sundarban
keora/baen
Destroy
Back-swamps or basins
sundari
goran
Gewa
hoda
golpata
nol khagra
hargoza
High-tide water level
Low-tide water level
Present
Future
Soil salinity is increasing and

Salinity zone is shifting
Sundari trees are destroyed and
replaced by Keora and Gewa
Sunderban forest under different salinity zone
(ppt); present situation
Loss of Ecosystem
Food chain breaks down
Charles Darwin -
It is not the strongest of the species

that survive,
nor the most intelligent,
but the one
most responsive to change
Thanks for Your Time

and Attention

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Effect of Climate Change on Floods of

Bangladesh: Learning from the past

Dr. Md. Shahjahan Ali , Associate Professor

Area of the country = 144,000 sq. km

Meghna (Inflow 195 BCM

of the total landmass Ganges

Still Water Bodies:

(Inflow 380 BCM)

Drainage basin inside Bangladesh

Major Effects of Climate Change in Bangladesh

Sea level rise

Outline of the Presentation

Disaster Profile of Bangladesh

Impact of CC on the Return period and frequency of floods

Impact of CC on the intensity of Flood

Historical Time-series data of Rainfall

How CC impact magnifies the intensity of flood

Impact of CC on other Disasters (brief)

Cyclone & Tornadoes

Outline of the Presentation

Disaster Profile of Bangladesh

Impact of CC on the Return period and frequency of floods

Impact of CC on the intensity of Flood

Historical Time-series data of Rainfall

How CC impact magnifies the intensity of flood

Impact of CC on other Disasters (brief)

Cyclone & Tornadoes

Vulnerability Profile of Bangladesh

1st out of 162 countries

6th out of 89 countries

63rd out of 184 countries

(b) Economic exposure

9.74 bill. USD

3rd out of 162 countries

2.36 bill. USD

12th out of 89 countries

(Source: Global Assessment Report, UNDP, 2009)

No. of People Killed for 1900-1981

Affected People nos. for 1900-1981

No. of Disaster for 1900-1981

Disaster Year 1900-1981

No. of People Killed for 1982-2011

Affected People nos. for 1982-2011

No. of Disaster for 1982-2011

Disaster Year 1982-2011

Economic Loss for 1982-2011

Economic Loss for 1900-1981

Disaster Year 1900-1981

Disaster Year 1982-2011

No. of people killed/Year

563 Mill USD

Is the Climate Change a future Threat for Bangladesh?

Location of Disaster-prone Areas

Outline of the Presentation

Disaster Profile of Bangladesh

Impact of CC on the Return period and frequency of

Historical Time-series data of Rainfall

Impact of CC on the intensity of Flood

How CC impact magnifies the intensity of flood

Analysis of Two Mega Floods (1988 and 1998)

Impact of CC on other Disasters (brief)

Cyclone & Tornadoes