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INTRODUCTION
Within Australia, there is a large market for explosives to
support the mining industry. The main explosive used in
Australian mining has ammonium nitrate as a precursor.
Ammonium nitrate is both manufactured in Australia and
imported from overseas. Due to the size of the market
in ammonium nitrate, large quantities are transported both
internationally and within Australia.
Ships are used for the international transportation of
ammonium nitrate and potentially for movements between
the east and west coasts of Australia.
The local manufacturers and the importers of
ammonium nitrate want to minimise their costs and so
large shipment sizes have occurred and are proposed
for the future within Australia. Where the load is sufficiently
large that a ship can be chartered for exclusive use, the
manufacturer or importer has increased control over the
condition of the ship and other specific aspects of the transportation. This can improve the delivered quality of the
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2.
3.
CONSEQUENCES OF SCENARIOS
In assessing the consequences of the explosion scenarios,
there are a number of important parameters.
1. TNT equivalence. The TNT equivalence of pure
ammonium nitrate is considered to be in the range of
30% to 55% based on both theoretical and experimental
results. In this study an equivalence of 34.6% is
used based on the ratio of the heat of detonation of
ammonium nitrate of 378 kcal/kg to the heat of
explosion of TNT of 1094 kcal/kg (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2002).
If the ammonium nitrate is contaminated during the
accident with a fuel, the TNT equivalence is increased
to approximately 1.0. For the large shipments of
ammonium nitrate being considered in this analysis, it
One accident that has occurred was where a bunker hatch at the bottom
of a hold was not sealed correctly. After loading with ammonium nitrate
bags, the ship filled its bunker tanks. The fuel flowed into the base of the
hold and over the duration of the voyage soaked into the bags. If this
material was exploded a TNT equivalence of 1 would be appropriate.
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LIKELIHOOD
The likelihood of the explosion scenarios is the area of
greatest uncertainty. Since the three ship explosions in
1947 and the one in 1953, I am unaware of any ship
explosions involving ammonium nitrate. Following those
explosions (over 50 years ago), significant changes were
made to the composition of ammonium nitrate and the emergency response actions that would occur in the event of
a fire.
However, the historical record cannot show that a ship
explosion is impossible. Thus, fault trees have been developed for numerous QRAs, which identify the causal
sequences that are required for an explosion to occur and
suggest likelihood or frequency values for the scenarios.
The likelihood estimates of the explosion scenarios
considered in this study are based on recent QRAs prepared
in Australia. These likelihood estimates are:
.
.
.
30.0
1200
25.0
1000
20.0
800
15.0
600
10.0
400
200
5.0
0.0
2500
500
1000
1500
2000
People in Rings
Surrounding Ship
Local Population
1400
Population
Population
Density
COST OF SHIPPING
The cost of shipping ammonium nitrate comprises two components:
Distance (m)
1.
Figure 1. Populations surrounding shipment of ammonium
nitrate
A fixed administration cost per shipment which is independent of the size of the shipment. This is assumed to
be $5000.
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Fatality Risk
$200
1.E-06
$150
Small ship
explosion
1.E-07
Partial ship
explosion
$100
1.E-08
$50
$0
Complete ship
explosion
1.E-09
0
5000
10000
15000
Total
20000
1.E-10
500
1000
1500
very low, less than 1.5 1027 p.a. This value should be juxtaposed with the NSW Department of Planning individual
fatality risk criterion for sensitive locations in the vicinity
of a proposed development, which is 5 1027 p.a.
The societal risk as a function of shipment size is
shown in Figure 5. The larger shipments have generally
lower likelihoods of explosions but the consequences
are substantially larger. With the smallest shipment size
(100 te), the likelihood of a complete ship explosion is
1.1 1026 p.a. and this could kill 28 people. All these
people are working on the port and have some degree of
voluntary acceptance of risk. With the largest shipment
size, the likelihood of a complete ship explosion is much
lower at 5.5 1029 p.a. but the number of people who
could be killed is much higher at 3600. Also, the majority
of these people would be members of the public with no
voluntary acceptance of the risk. The criteria lines shown
are the indicative societal risk criteria suggested in NSW
but are not mandatory. The societal risk associated with
1000 te and 2000 te shipments is closer to the lower criteria
line. The smaller shipments lie closer to the upper criteria
line and the 10 000 te and 20 000 te shipments extend
beyond the upper criteria line because they could cause in
excess of 1000 fatalities, which is the limit tolerable using
these criteria lines. However, other criteria lines are used
in other jurisdictions and the conclusions of the analysis
would be different.
70
100
60
200
Societal Risk
F (frequency of events
causing N or more fatalities)
80
500
50
1000
40
2000
30
5000
20
10000
10
20000
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Distance (m)
100 te
200 te
1.E-04
500 te
1.E-05
1000 te
2000 te
1.E-06
5000 te
10,000 te
1.E-07
20,000 te
1.E-08
Lower Limit
Upper Limit
1.E-09
1
10
100
1000
10000
N (Fatalities)
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Cost vs Benefit
$200
0.0003
$150
0.0002
$100
0.0001
$50
PLL
0.0004
Potential
Loss of Life
Average
Cost of
Shipment
Ratio
$0
0
5000
CONCLUSIONS
The risks of transporting large shipments of ammonium
nitrate through Australian ports is low due to the very low
likelihood of large explosions coupled with the significant
distances (.1 km) to large populations. The risk is likely
to meet current individual fatality risk based criteria.
The societal risk associated with shipments of
ammonium nitrate varies significantly with larger shipments. The distance from the ship to residential or commercial populations is an important factor in determining the
fatality risk. For the population distribution and shipment
costs considered in this study, the lowest ratio between
PLL and shipment cost is for a shipment size of 2000 te.
This shipment size also corresponds to the societal risk