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Probability of Default (PD) is the likelihood that a loan will not be repaid and will fall
into default. It must be calculated for each borrower. The credit history of the borrower
and the nature of the investment must be taken into consideration when calculating PD.
External ratings agencies such as Standard & Poors or Moodys may be used to get a PD;
however, banks can also use internal rating methods. PD can range from 0% to 100%. If
a borrower has 15% PD it is considered a less risky company vs. a company with a 30%
PD.
Adjusted Exposure (AE) is equal to outstanding loan amount (OS) plus the percentage
of unused loan commitment (COM) drawn-down by the borrower; known as the usage
given default (UGD). AE is calculated as follows:
AE = OS + (COM OS) * (UGD)
Recovery Rate (RR) the proportion of a bad debt that can be recovered.
Loss Given Default (LGD) the credit loss incurred if an obligor of the bank defaults. LGD = 1- RR
Expected Loss (EL) referring back to Expected Loss Calculation, EL is the loss that can be incurred
as a result of lending to a company that may default. It is the average loss in value over a specified period.
Unexpected Loss (UL) it is known as the variation in expected loss. UL is typically larger than EL
but they are both equal to zero when PD is zero.
Correlation () plays an important role in measuring the potential UL in the portfolio. If correlation between the
assets increases, the potential UL will increase.
Sources:
simple formula:
EL = PD * LGD * EAD
The total exposure to credit risk is the amount that the borrower owes to the lending institution at
the time of default; the exposure at default (EAD). Generally, EAD will not be larger than the
borrowing facility.
PD & LGD are risk metrics employed in the measurement and management of credit risk. The
metrics are used to calculate EL.
The probability of default (PD) is the likelihood that a loan will not be repaid and will fall into
default. It must be calculated for each borrower. The credit history of the borrower and the nature
of the investment must be taken into consideration when calculating PD. External ratings
agencies such as Standard and Poors or Moodys may be used to get a PD; however, banks can
also use internal rating methods. PD can range from 0% to 100%. If a borrower has 50% PD it is
considered a less risky company vs. a company with an 80% PD. For example:
A borrower (Company X) takes out a loan from Bank ABC for $10 million (EAD). Company X
pledges $3 million collateral against this loan (for simplicity, lets say the collateral is cash). The
Companys PD is determined by analyzing their credit risk aspects (evaluate the financial health
of the borrower, taking into account economic trends, borrower relationship with the bank, etc.)
For Company X, lets say the PD is 0.99. This means that the Company is extremely risky; the
probability of them defaulting on the loan is 99%.
Loss given default (LGD) is the fractional loss due to default. Continuing from the previous
example:
If Company X defaults (is unable to pay back the $10 million to Bank ABC), the Bank will be
able to recover $3 million (this is the cash-secured collateral).
So, how do we calculate the actual loss given default (LGD)?