Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Topic Capital
Budgeting
and Cash
Flow
Projection
L
EARNING OUTCOMES
By the end of this topic, you should be able to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Analyse the relationship between cash flow estimation and risk and
also inflation.
INTRODUCTION
69
5.1
CAPITAL BUDGETING
ACTIVITY 5.1
Explain the importance of cash flow in capital budgeting.
Capital budgeting is a process of planning asset spending, which is the receipt of
cash flow expected after a year. In capital budgeting decisions, a company places
funds in various types of projects, such as firm expansion project, production
diversification project, improving cost efficiency project, security project and etc.
Every decision made regarding capital budgeting has significant implications
to both the cash flow expected to be received by the firm and to the cash flow
risk. This is because the decision on capital budgeting involves investment of
assets that is more than one year. For instance, a company wishes to invest in a
project that has life expectancy of five years. Having invested in that project, it is
difficult for a firm to pullout within this five-year period. At this stage, changes
in demand condition, competition and so on may happen. These factors can
influence the cash flow expected to be received and will affect the firms financial
performance. Therefore, it is important for a financial manager to analyse in detail
a long-term investment proposal in order to make the best decision for the firm.
70
5.1.1
ACTIVITY 5.2
Write three reasons why doing capital budgeting is important.
5.1.2
71
ACTIVITY 5.3
Why is a detailed analysis required for an expansion project compared
to a replacement project?
Assessing capital budgeting proposal involves expenditure. For this reason, a
financial manager may classify projects into various categories to determine the
level of analysis needed replacement project, expansion project, security project,
environmental project etc.
Normally, a more detailed analysis is required for expansion project compared to
an analysis for a replacement project. A large-scale project which requires huge
budget will be evaluated more thoroughly than a small-scale project.
5.1.3
Determining
Cost of Project
Cash Flow
Forecasting
Determining
Risk
Comparing of
Cash
Present Value
Acquisition
Choosing
a Suitable
Capital Cost
72
(c) Determining Risk
Risk plays a vital role in capital budgeting. Ignoring risk in the analysis of
proposed projects may lead to wrong decision in capital budgeting; and
hence will erode the firms financial standing.
(d) Choosing a Suitable Capital Cost
Based on cash flow risk, a suitable capital cost will be adopted for the
discounting of cash flow expected to be received.
(e) Present Value Acquisition
Cash flow is discounted at present value to get an expected value of the
asset to the firm.
(f) Comparing of Cash
The proposed project shall be accepted if present value of cash inflow
is more than cash outflow. On the contrary, the proposed project will be
rejected if present value of cash inflow is less than cash outflow.
5.1.4
73
Equation 1
ARR(%) =
Or
Equation 2
X 100
ARR(%) =
X 100
Net average income refers to income after depreciation and tax expenditure.
Now look at Example 5.1 that shows how to calculate accounting rate of
return and use the figures to determine choice of project.
Example 5.1
The table shows information regarding two projects, A and B. Book value for
both projects are RM30,000.
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Average
(RM)
(RM)
(RM)
(RM)
8,000
12,000
16,000
12,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
12,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
20,000
10,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
15,000
1st January
31st December
74
By using Equation 1, accounting rate of return (ARR) for each project is:
Project A
Project B
ARR% =
=
12,000
15,000
X 100
80%
12,000
15,000
X 100
80%
By using Equation 2, accounting rate of return (ARR) for each project is:
Project A
Project A
ARR% =
=
ARR% =
12,000
30,000
40%
X 100
ARR% =
=
12,000
30,000
X 100
40%
If projects compete with one another or overlap each other, we will choose a
project that will give the highest rate of return as long as the project gives a
higher accounting return rate than the required minimum rate of return.
In Example 5.1, both projects A and B are attractive because their accounting
rate of return are 80% (by using Equation 1) and 40% (by using Equation
2). Both projects A and B will be accepted if the required minimum rate of
return is less than 40%.
75
(b) Payback Period
This is a very simple technique whereby we only have to determine the
period required in order to get back the sum of money invested in the
project. The firms management will decide on a payback period; whether
the project is to be accepted or rejected depends on whether the payback
period is longer or shorter than the period set by the management. The
principles for payback period are as follows:
(i) Accept the project if the payback period is less than or the same as the
period decided by the management; and
(ii) Reject the project if the payback period is more than the period decided
by the management.
Now, look at Example 5.2 which shows the method of choosing a project
based on payback period.
Example 5.2
Hebat Company is evaluating whether to accept Project A. The investment
required is RM12,000. The total cash flow expected for Project A is as
follows:
Year
Cash Inflow
(RM)
3,000
3,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
If Hebat Company sets the payback period to three years, Project A will be
rejected because the investment payback period exceeds the period set by
76
the management. After three years, this project will only give a return of
RM3,000 + RM3,000 + RM5,000 = RM11,000 whereas the cost of investment
is RM12,000.
If Hebat Company sets a payback period of four years, will this project be
accepted? Project A will be accepted because the payback period is less than
the period set. After three years, the firm will receive a return of RM11,000.
Therefore, it still needs RM1,000 to tally the cost of investment of RM12,000.
Assuming that cash flow is constant, Hebat Company will take a time of
(1,000 5,000) 0.2 years to get back the balance of RM1,000. Therefore, the
payback period is 3.2 years compared to the set period of four years.
self-check 5.1
30,000
30,000
30,000
30,000
(b) If the management of the Pasti Jaya Company has decided on a
payback period of three years, will this project be accepted?
Example 5.3
Hebat Company has two investment projects proposals: Project A and
Project B. The information on these projects is in the following table:
Assume that Hebat Company sets the payback period to be in three years
time. Based on the technique of payback period, Hebat Company will accept
project B and reject project A. But is this a good decision?
Project A
Project B
RM12,000
RM12,000
RM3,000
RM3,000
RM3,000
RM4,000
RM5,000
RM5,000
RM5,000
RM5,000
Investment
77
Cash inflow
Year
In the payback period technique, Hebat Company does not take into
account the cash inflow after the set payback period. Although Project B is
able to yield return on the investment in year 3, it will not be able to give
any returns after that. On the contrary, Project A may take a longer period
to yield returns on the investment but it will still produce a cash inflow of
RM5,000 in year 4 and year 5:
There are difficulties in projecting cash flow in the long term because
of the elements of uncertainty. Hence, payback period technique is a
useful risk evaluation method.
Based on Examples 5.2 and 5.3, the disadvantages of the payback period
technique are as follows:
(i) This technique emphasises on cash inflow in the early years. What
happens if the payback period is ignored?
78
(ii) This technique fails to consider the present value of money because it
does not do discount cash flow received to present value. Normally,
investment involves cash outflow at present and the revenue acquired
in the future. As explained in Topic 4, one ringgit received now is of
higher value than one ringgit received in the future. If cash inflow
is not discounted to the present value, the decision made may be
incorrect.
(c) Discounted Payback Period
To overcome the disadvantages of the payback period technique, discounted
payback period can be used. This technique still determines the period
needed to get back the sum of money invested but the cash inflow is
discounted to the present value before the decision to accept or reject the
project is made.
Example 5.4 shows how the technique of discounted payback period is used.
Example 5.4
Referring to Example 5.2 and assuming that the discount rate is 10%, a
discounted payback period schedule can be constructed:
Year
Cash Inflow
PVIF i=10%
Discounted Cash
Inflow
RM3,000
0.9091
2727.3
RM3,000
0.8264
2479.2
RM5,000
0.7513
3756.5
RM5,000
0.6830
3415.5
RM5,000
0.6209
3104.5
Referring to the last column in the table, it shows that the total cash flow
collected for the first three years is RM8,963 (RM2,727.20 + RM2,479.20 +
RM3,756.50). For the first four years, total cash flow collected is RM12,378
(RM8,963 + RM3,415). Since the project investment cost is RM12,000,
discounted payback period is three to four years. Therefore, we still need
RM3,037 from year 4. Thus, the discounted payback period is:
79
Even though this technique takes into consideration the time value of
money, it still does not take into account the cash flow after the payback
period.
3037
year
3415
Compare present value of the sum of cash inflow with cash outflow
Based on the information in Example 5.2 for Hebat Company, please look at
Example 5.5.
Example 5.5
Year
3,000
3,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
Total
15483.10
80
Discount rate used =
Net Present Value =
=
=
10%
The sum of present value of cash inflow
investment cost.
RM15,483.10 RM12,000
RM3,483.10
If the discount rate given is 10%, use the technique of net present value
to evaluate the proposed project in Self Check 5.1 (Pasti Jaya Company).
Would you accept or reject the project? Give reasons.
(e) Internal Rate of Return
In the internal rate of return technique, we try to find the interest rate that
equals the present value of the total cash flow with investment cost. The
management will decide on a required rate of return from a particular
project. Accepting or rejecting a project depends on the internal rate of
return (IRR). Therefore, it is necessary to determine whether IRR is higher
or lower than the rate of return which has been set by the management.
We will accept a project if the internal rate of return (IRR) is higher or the
same as the rate of return set by the management. We will reject a project
if the internal rate of return (IRR) is lower than the rate of return set by
management.
81
Now, look at Example 5.6 which shows how the internal rate of return
technique is used.
Example 5.6
Megah Company is evaluating whether to accept or reject project X.
The investment needed is RM18,000. X project is expected to have a life
expectancy of three years and is expected to give a cash inflow of RM8,000 per
year for three years. The management has set a desired 10% rate of returns.
Based on the information, try to find an interest rate which equals the
investment cost with the present value on all cash flow for project X.
18,000
8,000
(1 + i)1
8,000
(1 + i)2
8,000
(1 + i)3
Since cash flow for every year is the same for three years, we can use the
annuity concept to solve this problem. (Refer to Topic 4 on the explanation
of the annuity concept).
18,000
= 8,000 (PVIFA i = ?, n = 3 )
18,000 / 8000 = PVIFA i = ?, n = 3
2.25
= ? PVIFA i = ?, n = 3
Referring to the PVIFA table for the period of three years, it shows that:
PVIFA at an interest rate = 15% is 2.2832
PVIFA at an interest rate = 16% is 2.2459
Therefore, internal rate of return acquired can be said as between 15% to
16%.
Compare the internal rate of return acquired (15% - 16%) with the interest
rate set by the management (12%). Accept the project because the internal
rate of return received is more than the interest rate set by the management.
Example 5.7
Syarikat Boleh Jaya (SBJ) is evaluating whether to accept or reject project S.
82
The management requires 12% minimum rate of return for this type of
project. Based on the above information, calculate the rate of return for
project S.
Answer:
For varying cash flow, we have to use the trial and error technique. This
means that we will use one discount rate to determine the net present value
of the project. If the net present value is not equivalent to zero, we will try a
new discount rate to determine the net present value.
For a start, we can use the discount rate (i) = 12% (same as capital cost). With
this rate, net present value of the project can be determined as follows:
Year
(1)
Cash Flow (RM)
(2)
PVIF i=12%, n=4
350,000
0.8929
312,515
300,000
0.7972
239,160
3
4
250,000
150,000
0.7118
0.6355
177,950
95,325
824,950
Net Present Value = RM824,950 RM800,000
= RM24,950
Due to the net present value being positive, the discount rate must be
increased. Now, we try with i = 14%.
(1)
(2)
350,000
0.8772
307,020
300,000
0.7695
230,850
3
4
250,000
150,000
0.6750
0.5921
168,750
88,815
795,435
Year
Due to the net present value being negative, the discount rate must be
reduced. Now, we try with i = 13%.
(1)
(2)
350,000
0.8850
309,750
300,000
0.7831
234,930
3
4
250,000
150,000
0.6931
0.6133
173,275
91,995
809,950
Year
Net Present Value = RM809,950 RM800,000
= RM9,950
Summary
83
This means that zero net present value must be between the discount rates
of 13% and 14%. The projects internal rate of return is the same as 13% +
but less than 14%.
It must be reminded that, students must repeat the trial and error calculation
(i.e. try a number of different discount rates) until arriving at 2 ranges of
net present value (one positive and another negative). This ensures that
net present value equals to zero can be determined. IRR is the discount rate
which makes the net present value becomes zero:
84
coal. The internal rate of return technique may give priority to the
wrong project.
(iii) The calculation of this technique is quite difficult if there are different
returns during the life of the project.
5.2
ACTIVITY 5.4
Based on the project evaluation methods mentioned before, what is the
best method you will employ if you are a project manager? What are the
characteristics you will consider?
self-check 5.2
1.
2.
Will you accept or reject the project if the management sets the
required rate of return at 15%? Give your reasons.
As a financial manager, what is the guideline that you will use for the estimation
of cash flow in your organisation?
A financial manager has to consider several important guidelines for a more
accurate cash flow projection in getting better accuracy for capital budget
decisions. We will discuss these guidelines in the next subtopic.
5.2.1
Profit is based on accrued concept. For instance, this years sale is considered
done and this years profit can take into consideration those sales. But, even if
sales happen this year, collection does not necessarily happen in this year too.
Therefore, we cannot take into calculation those sales as a cash inflow. Without
this cash inflow, the firms project may be impeded due to financial difficulties.
This applies to any payment made by the company. Sometimes, the firm needs
to make a certain payment to another party next year and in the calculation of
85
accounting profit, this payment is this years cost because service has been given
or merchandise has been supplied by the party concerned. But since payment
need not be paid this year, cash outflow does not happen and with that, this cash
flow will not be shown this year.
5.2.2
Additional cash flow is net cash flow that is related to the investment project.
This cash flow will happen if only we accept the project. In determining
additional cash flow, a few doubts may arise, for instance, sunk cost, opportunity
cost and externality. Are these items included as a part of additional cash flow?
(a) Sunk Cost
Sunk cost refers to the total cost spent and is not collectable whether a
project is accepted or not. Therefore, a sunk cost cannot be included in the
analysis. For instance, the fee paid to a consultant for conducting a market
research. Consultant fees cannot be included in a project analysis because
this cost has been spent, regardless of whether the project is accepted and
the cost cannot be collected back.
(b) Opportunity Cost
Opportunity cost refers to the return which can be acquired from an asset
if the asset is utilised for other usage. For instance, ABC Company has an
office that can be used as a new branch office or that office can be rented to
other people for RM36,000 per year. If ABC Company opens a branch, it will
lose the opportunity of having a years rent of RM36,000. This opportunity
cost must be included in the analysis.
(c) Externality
Externality refers to the impact of the project on other departments in the
firm or to the firms existing production. For instance, if the firm introduces
a new product, this may affect an existing product sale. A financial manager
should take into account external impacts when estimating an investment
projects cash flow.
ACTIVITY 5.5
86
ACTIVITY 5.5
Provide one example to describe each of the following items:
1.
Sunk cost
2.
Opportunity cost
3.
Externality
5.3
5.4
87
What is the relationship between cash flow estimation and risk? Risk measures
variance between real outcome and expected outcome. In capital budgeting,
every period is a random variable and cash flow projection may not be accurate.
The bigger the variance or the difference between projection of cash flow and real
cash flow, the higher the risk will be. In order to make a more accurate analysis, a
financial manager needs to include the degree of risk into capital analysis.
5.5
What is the relationship between cash flow projection and inflation? Inflation
refers to increase in the general prices of goods and services. When inflation
rate increases, the value of money decreases. If expected inflation rate is not
calculated into the analysis of cash flow projection, the value received is
deflected and inaccurate. As a result, the capital budgeting decision made will
not be accurate and may affect the firms financial standing. Due to this, capital
budgeting analysis must consider the effects of inflation on cash flow projection
to get a more accurate decision.
The inflation rate expected must be included in the analysis of net present value
to ensure that capital cost takes into consideration the inflation rate. If inflation
rate is found to be higher, the discount rate used should be raised. If the inflation
rate is low, the discounted rate must be lowered. Please refer to Topic 4 on
Financial Mathematics to revise on discount rate and present value. You should
be able to understand the relationship between cash flow estimation and inflation
more clearly after having revised Topic 4.
self-check 5.3
Fill in the blanks.
1.
The _________ the difference between cash flow projection with true
cash flow, the more _____________ its risk.
2.
88
SUMMARY
In this topic, you have learned that capital budgeting involves planning
and evaluation of a long-term project as well as the importance of capital
budgeting for a firm.
Several methods of evaluating projects such as accounting rate of return,
payback period, discounted payback, net present value and internal rate of
return have been explained and examples of calculation for each technique
have been shown. Besides this, advantages and disadvantages of each
technique have also been discussed.
Cash flow projection is important in the analysis of a proposed investment
project. A number of guidelines on cash flow projection have been discussed
to help you in making decisions on whether to include the cost.
Degree of risk of the project and inflation rate are need to be considered when
evaluating a project.
Budgeting technique
Cash floor
Capital budgeting
Inflation
Opportunity cost
Sunk cost