ATTIYA REHMAN

Is current climate change

unprecedented in geological history?
The changes in temperature over time have been recorded throughout history. It
is these changes which have a significant effect on the earths climate causing
many environmental, social and economic effects. Temperatures are rising, snow
and rainfall patterns are shifting, and more extreme climate eventslike heavy
rainstorms and record high temperaturesare already affecting the earth.
Recently, measurements show global temperatures have been rising. Over the
last 100 years the average global surface temperature has risen by 0.74 oC
however this had already had an effect on the Earth. Arctic sea ice has been
decreasing, glaciers shrinking and trees are flowering sooner. These are just a
few of the environmental effects the rising temperature has caused. Theory
predicts that as ice is lost in the arctic,, more of the oceans surface will be
exposed to solar radiation and will warm up as opposed to the Albedo effect
where 90% of the suns rays are reflected back. Scientists have predicted that
global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to
greenhouse gasses produced by human activities. In turn this would lead to loss
of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves. Also
in Europe there would be an increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent
coastal flooding and increased erosion from storms and sea level rise; glacial
retreat in mountainous areas; reduced snow cover and winter tourism; extensive
species losses and also reductions of crop productivity in southern Europe. This is
concerning as this can have an effect on many lives, putting more people at risk
and also may have an effect on the economy as there is loss of crop.
In the past global temperatures have changed frequently. Around 375million
years ago many new plants evolved carboniferous period. The plants took in
carbon dioxide for photosynthesis removing it from the atmosphere. Carbon
dioxide is a greenhouse gas so traps heat therefore the decrease in carbon
dioxide led to the cooling of the plant. Global temperatures fell about 10 oC over
100million years ago. This long cooling trend was then followed by a much faster
temperature rise about 251million years ago. Scientists think this was caused
by one of the largest known volcanic eruptions in the Earths history the
formation of the Siberian Traps which lasted about a million years and covered
an area nearly twice the size of Europe in lava. This volcanic eruption released
large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This then led to an
increase in global temperatures by around 6 oC over a couple of million years.
There has been further climate change in the following years due to a variety of
many reasons.
The graph below shows the annual mean temperature between 1837 and 2011.
This graphs shows temperature has been fluctuating for many years, rising and
falling however over time there has been a gradual increase as shown by the
linear trend.

ATTIYA REHMAN

There have been many natural causes of climate change for example variations
in the Earths orbit. Every 100 000 years the Earths
orbit
changes from spherical to elliptical, changing solar
input. Also the tilt of the Earth changes - the
Earths
o
axis is tilted at 23.5 , this changes over a 41 000
year cycle between 22o & 24.5o, affecting solar input,
especially in higher latitudes. The Earths axis
also wobbles, so which way the hemispheres are
facing to the sun when closest to the sun varies over
21000 years.
Variations in solar input are also natural causes to the
changing climate. The suns output varies and a
variety of cycles have been detected. Many of
these cycles are short term for examples sun spot
activity 11years. The effect of sunspots is to blast
more solar radiation towards the earth. Some
scientists have suggested that around 20% of 20 th
Century warming may be because of solar output
variation.
Lastly, as mentioned before, volcanoes are a natural cause to climate change.
Large eruptions eject material into the stratosphere. The sulphur dioxide forms a
haze of sulphate aerosols, which reduces the amount of sunlight received at the
Earths surface. For example the eruption of Tambora , led to the year without a
summer in 1816 as global temperatures dipped by 0.4-0.7 degrees Celsius.

ATTIYA REHMAN
Scientists measure all these natural changes and calculate their effects however
none can account for the warming observed since 1970, when global
temperature has risen by about half a degree. So scientists can only account for
the observed trend by including the effect of human activities. There are some
anthropogenic (human) factors which cause climate change. Firstly the
increased amount of carbon dioxide due the industrial revolution has led to rising
temperatures. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil releases carbon
dioxide in to the atmosphere. As carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it can lead
to the enhanced greenhouse effect where more heat is reflected back to the
earth leading to higher global temperatures.

This graph shows the

relationship between
carbon dioxide levels and
temperature. As the
concentration of carbon
dioxide rises, global
temperatures also rise.

There has also been a rise in methane and nitrous oxide which are also
greenhouse gases leading to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Overall I think climate is changing due to both anthropogenic and natural factors
however in recent years I think anthropogenic factors have contributed more to

ATTIYA REHMAN
climate change than natural factors. I think current climate change is not
unprecedented in history as there has been a rise of up to 6 degrees Celsius in
the past. Even though this was due to natural factors, the temperature rise in
recent years is similar however is mostly due to anthropogenic causes.