EENS3050

NaturalDisasters

TulaneUniversity

Prof.StephenA.Nelson

FloodingHazards,Prediction&HumanIntervention

Thispagelastupdatedon19Oct2015

HazardsAssociatedwithFlooding
Hazardsassociatedwithfloodingcanbedividedintoprimaryhazardsthatoccurduetocontact
withwater,secondaryeffectsthatoccurbecauseoftheflooding,suchasdisruptionofservices,
healthimpactssuchasfamineanddisease,andtertiaryeffectssuchaschangesinthepositionof
riverchannels.Throughoutthelastcenturyfloodinghasbeenoneofthemostcostlydisastersin
termsofbothpropertydamageandhumancasualties.MajorfloodsinChina,forexample,killed
about2millionpeoplein1887,nearly4millionin1931,andabout1millionin1938The1993
floodontheupperMississippiRiverandMidwestkilledonly47people,buttheU.S.ArmyCorps
ofEngineersestimatesthetotaleconomiclossatbetween15and20billiondollars.
PrimaryEffects
Again,theprimaryeffectsoffloodsarethoseduetodirectcontactwiththefloodwaters.Asseen
inthevideolastlecture,watervelocitiestendtobehighinfloods.Asdischargeincreases
velocityincreases.
Withhighervelocities,streamsareabletotransportlargerparticlesassuspendedload.
Suchlargeparticlesincludenotonlyrocksandsediment,but,duringaflood,couldinclude
suchlargeobjectsasautomobiles,housesandbridges.
Massiveamountsoferosioncanbeaccomplishedbyfloodwaters.Sucherosioncan
underminebridgestructures,levees,andbuildingscausingtheircollapse.
Waterenteringhumanbuiltstructurescausewaterdamage.Evenwithminorfloodingof
homes,furnitureisruined,floorsandwallsaredamaged,andanythingthatcomesin
contactwiththewaterislikelytobedamagedorlost.Floodingofautomobilesusually
resultsindamagethatcannoteasilyberepaired.
Thehighvelocityoffloodwatersallowsthewatertocarrymoresedimentassuspended
load.Whenthefloodwatersretreat,velocityisgenerallymuchlowerandsedimentis
deposited.Afterretreatofthefloodwaterseverythingisusuallycoveredwithathicklayer
ofstreamdepositedmud,includingtheinteriorofbuildings.
Floodingoffarmlandusuallyresultsincroploss.Livestock,pets,andotheranimalsare
oftencarriedawayanddrown.
Humansthatgetcaughtinthehighvelocityfloodwatersareoftendrownedbythewater.
Floodwaterscanconcentrategarbage,debris,andtoxicpollutantsthatcancausethe
secondaryeffectsofhealthhazards.

SecondaryandTertiaryEffects
Rememberthatsecondaryeffectsarethosethatoccurbecauseoftheprimaryeffectsandtertiary
effectsarethelongtermchangesthattakeplace.Amongthesecondaryeffectsofafloodare:

Disruptionofservices
Drinkingwatersuppliesmaybecomepolluted,especiallyifseweragetreatment
plantsareflooded.Thismayresultindiseaseandotherhealtheffects,especiallyin
underdevelopedcountries.
Gasandelectricalservicemaybedisrupted.
Transportationsystemsmaybedisrupted,resultinginshortagesoffoodandcleanup
supplies.Inunderdevelopedcountriesfoodshortagesoftenleadtostarvation.
Longtermeffects(tertiaryeffects)
Locationofriverchannelsmaychangeastheresultofflooding,newchannels
develop,leavingtheoldchannelsdry.
Sedimentdepositedbyfloodingmaydestroyfarmland(althoughsiltdepositedby
floodwaterscouldalsohelptoincreaseagriculturalproductivity).
Jobsmaybelostduetothedisruptionofservices,destructionofbusiness,etc.
(althoughjobsmaybegainedintheconstructionindustrytohelprebuildorrepair
flooddamage).
Insuranceratesmayincrease.
Corruptionmayresultfrommisuseofrelieffunds.
Destructionofwildlifehabitat.
PredictingRiverFlooding
Floodscanbesuchdevastatingdisastersthatanyonecanbeaffectedatalmostanytime.Aswe
haveseen,whenwaterfallsonthesurfaceoftheEarth,ithastogosomewhere.Inorderto
reducetheriskduetofloods,threemainapproachesaretakentofloodprediction.Statistical
studiescanbeundertakentoattempttodeterminetheprobabilityandfrequencyofhigh
dischargesofstreamsthatcauseflooding.Floodscanbemodeledandmapscanbemadeto
determinetheextentofpossiblefloodingwhenitoccursinthefuture.And,sincethemain
causesoffloodingareabnormalamountsofrainfallandsuddenthawingofsnoworice,storms
andsnowlevelscanbemonitoredtoprovideshorttermfloodprediction.
FrequencyofFlooding
Inyourhomeworkexerciseyouwillseehowfloodfrequenciescanbedeterminedforanygiven
streamifdataisavailablefordischargeofthestreamoveranextendedperiodoftime.Suchdata
allowsstatisticalanalysistodeterminehowoftenagivendischargeorstageofariverisexpected.
Fromthisanalysisarecurrenceintervalcanbedeterminedandaprobabilitycalculatedforthe
likelihoodofagivendischargeinthestreamforanyyear.Thedataneededtoperformthis
analysisaretheyearlymaximumdischargeofastreamfromonegagingstationoveralong
enoughperiodoftime.
Inordertodeterminetherecurrenceinterval,theyearlydischargevaluesarefirstranked.
Eachdischargeisassociatedwitharank,m,withm=1giventothemaximumdischarge
overtheyearsofrecord,m=2giventothesecondhighestdischarge,m=3giventothe
thirdhighestdischarge,etc.
Thesmallestdischargewillreceivearankequaltothenumberofyearsoverwhichthereis
arecord,n.Thus,thedischargewiththesmallestvaluewillhavem=n.

Thenumberofyearsofrecord,n,andtherankforeachpeakdischargearethenusedto
calculaterecurrenceinterval,Rbythefollowingequation,calledtheWeibullequation:
R=(n+1)/m

Agraphisthenmadeplottingdischargeforeachyearoftherecordversusrecurrence
interval.Thegraphusuallyplotsrecurrenceintervalonalogarithmicscale.Anexampleof
suchaplotisshownherefortheRedRiveroftheNorthgagingstationatFargo,North
Dakota.
Abestfitlineisthendrawnthroughthedatapoints.Fromthebestfitline,onecan
determinethedischargeassociatedwiththeafloodwitharecurrenceintervalofsay10
years.Thiswouldbecalledthe10yearflood.
ForthedataontheRedRiver,above,thedischargeassociatedwiththe10yearfloodis
about12,000cubicfeetpersecond.Similarlythedischargeassociatedwithafloodwitha
recurrenceintervalof50years(the50yearflood)wouldhaveadischargeofabout21,000
cubicfeetpersecond.The100yearfloodwouldhaveadischargeofabout25,000cubic
feetpersecond.
NotethatfortheRedRiverdata,shownabove,theApril18,1997floodhadadischargeof
30,000ft3/sec,whichisequivalenttoa250yearflood.Alsonotethatafloodthatreached
asimilarstageoccurredontheRedRiverinFargointheyear1887,only110yearsbefore.
Furthermore,theRedRiverreachedabitmorethan30,000ft3/secin2009.Doesthismake
thestatisticalanalysisunreliable?Theanswerisno.Asweshallsee,itispossibletohave
two100yearfloodsoccurring100yearsapart,50yearsapart,oreven2inthesameyear.
Theprobability,Pe,ofacertaindischargecanbecalculatedusingtheinverseofthe
Weibullequation:

Pe=m/(n+1)
Thevalue,Pe,iscalledtheannualexceedenceprobability.Forexample,adischargeequal
tothatofa10yearfloodwouldhaveanannualexceedenceprobabilityof1/10=0.1or
10%.Thiswouldsaythatinanygivenyear,theprobabilitythatafloodwithadischarge
equaltoorgreaterthanthatofa10yearfloodwouldbe0.1or10%.Similarly,the
probabilityofafloodwithdischargeexceedingthe100yearfloodinanygivenyearwould
be1/100=0.01,or1%.
Notethatsuchprobabilitiesarethesameforeveryyear.So,forexample,theprobability
thatdischargeoftheRedRiveratFargo,NorthDakotawillexceed25,000ft3/sec(the
dischargeofthe100yearflood)thisyearoranyotheryearwould1%.Youcanthinkof
thisinthesamewayyouwouldthinkaboutrollingdice.Theprobabilityonanyrollthat
youwillendupwithasix,rollingonlyondie,is1in6or16.67%.Eachtimeyourollthat
onedietheprobabilityisthesame,althoughyouknowthatitispossibletorolltwoorthree
sixesinarow.
Thus,itisimportanttorememberthateventhougha250yearfloodoccurredinFargoin
1997and2009,thereisstilla0.4%probabilitythatsuchaflood,oroneofevengreater
magnitude,willoccurthisyear.

Despitethefactthatthe100yearfloodhasonlya1%chanceofoccurringeachyear,the
probabilitiesdoaccumulateovertime.
Theprobabilityofacertainsizefloodoccurringduringanyperiodcanbecalculatedusingthe
followingequation:
Pt=1(1Pe)n
wherePtistheprobabilityofoccurrenceovertheentiretimeperiod,n,andPeistheprobabilityof
occurrenceinanyyear.
Wecanusethisequationtocalculatehowtheprobabilitieschangeovertime.Theresultis
depictedinthegraphbelowforPe=0.01(100yearflood)

Twoimportantpointsemerge:
1.Theprobabilityofa100yearfloodoccurringin100yearsisNOT100%!(Seebelow)

2.Theprobabilityofa100yearfloodoccurringin30years(thelifetimeoftheaveragehome
mortgage)is26.0%!

FloodHazardMapping
Foodhazardmappingisusedtodeterminetheareassusceptibletofloodingwhendischargeofa
streamexceedsthebankfullstage.Usinghistoricaldataonriverstagesanddischargeof
previousfloods,alongwithtopographicdata,mapscanbeconstructedtoshowareasexpectedto
becoveredwithfloodwatersforvariousdischargesorstages.

Inconstructingsuchmapsaerialphotographsandsatelliteimagesofpriorfloodsarestudiedto
helptodeterminetheareasthatwouldbecovered.Theillustrationaboveshowsapossiblehazard
mapbasedonestimateddischargesorriverstagesforahypothetical10yearflood,50yearflood,
and100yearflood.
Inaddition,scalemodelsareoftenconstructedofareaspronetoflooding.Suchmodelsonly
workiftheyarekeptuptodatewithcurrentfloodpreventionstructuresanddrainage
modifications.
MonitoringtheProgressofStorms
Iffactorssuchasamountofrainfall,degreeofgroundsaturation,degreeofpermeablesoil,and
amountofvegetationcanbedetermined,thenthesecanbecorrelatedtogiveshortterm
prediction,inthiscasecalledaforecast,ofpossiblefloods.Ifaforecastisissued,thenaflood
warningcanbecommunicatedtowarnthepublicaboutthepossibleextentoftheflood,andto
givepeopletimetomoveoutofthearea.Suchforecastsareveryusefulforfloodingthathasa

longlagtimebetweenthestormandthepeakdischarge.Flashfloods,whichcharacteristically
haveshortlagtimes,aremoreproblematical.Thus,insomeareasknowntobesusceptibleto
flashfloods,aflashfloodwarningisoftenissuedanytimeheavyrainfallisexpectedbecause
thereisalwaysthechanceofaflashfoodaccompanyingheavyrainfall.
InconjunctionwiththeNationalWeatherService,variousagenciesintheU.S.provide
informationontheinternetthatforecastpotentialfloods.Forexample
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
HumanIntervention
Humanscanmodifythelandscapeinmanyways.Sometimeshumansattempttomodifydrainage
systemstopreventflooding,butsometimestheseeffortshaveadverseeffectsandactuallyhelpto
causefloodinginotherareas.Anymodificationofthelandscapehasthepotentialtocause
changesinthedrainagesystem,andsuchchangescanhavesevereconsequences.
ChannelModifications
Humansoftendecidethatastreamshouldflowalongaspecifiedpathforsuchreasonsasflood
control,enhancementofdrainage,controloferosion,increasingaccesstothefloodplainfor
development,orimprovementoftheappearanceofthechannel.Suchchannelmodifications
involvemeasuressuchasthestraighteningthechannel,deepeningorwideningthechannel,
clearingvegetationfromthebanks,orliningthechannelwithconcrete.Thesemodificationsare
referredtoaschannelization.
Inordertocontrolfloods,channelmodificationshouldinvolveincreasingthechannel
crosssectionalarea,sothathigherdischargewillnotincreasethestageoftheriver.
Straighterchannelsalsoallowhighervelocityflowand,enablethestreamtodrainfaster
whendischargeincreases.Liningthechannelwithconcreteprovidesasmoothersurface
overwhichthewatercanflow,therebyreducingfrictionandalsoincreasingthevelocityof
thestream.
Whilechannelizationforfloodcontrolmayreducetheincidenceoffloodinginthe
channelizedarea,itoftenresultsinmoreseverefloodingbothupstreamanddownstream
fromthechannelizedarea.

Channelizationcanalsointerferewiththenaturalhabitatofthestreamsystemanddecrease
theaestheticvalueofthestream.
Channelization,oranyothermodificationofastreamsystem,changesthevalidityofall
historicdatacollectedovertheyearsonthatstream.DuringfloodingoftheMississippi
Riverin1973and1993waterlevelsrosetohigherlevelsthanexpectedfromthestatistical
data,becausemodificationofthestreamhadmadethedatainvalid.The1973floodcaused
damageandrosetolevelsthatmightbeexpectedfroma200yearflood,eventhough
dischargewasonlyatalevelpredictedfora30yearflood.Thus,itappearsthat
modificationsofthedrainagesystemhadanadverseeffect.
EffectsofDevelopmentonFloodHazard
Wheneverhumansmodifythelandscapeinanywaychangesaretobeexpectedinthewaywater
drainsfromtheland.Unlesscarefulconsiderationisgiventothepossibledrainageconsequences,
suchlandscapemodificationscanresultinhigherincidenceofflooding.Developmenton
floodplainsshouldthereforebeundertakenonlywithgreatcare.Existingdevelopmentsthathave
enhancedfloodingproblemsareoftencostlytofix.Amongthefactorsthatenhancetheflood
potentialare:
ChannelizationAsnoted

above,mostchannelizationis
undertakentoreduceflood
hazards.But,channelizationis
alsoundertakentoallow
developmentonthefloodplain.

Ifthechannelizationresultsindecreasingthecrosssectionalareaofthestream,asinthe
exampleabove,thenthesamedischargethatmaynothaveproducedfloodingpriorto
channelization,mayoverflowthebanksandcauseextensivefloodingafterchannelization.
SubsidenceAswillbediscussedinalaterlecture,subsidenceoftenresultsindeveloped
areasduetocompactionofthesediment,bothduetotheincreasingweightofstructuresand
hydrocompactionassociatedwiththeloweringofthewatertable.Anytimetheelevationof
anareaislowered,itbecomessubjecttocollectionofmorewater,andinseverecases,
coulddrasticallychangethedrainagepattern.
StormSewersInordertocollectrunofffromstreets,parkinglots,andbuildings,allof
whichblocktheinfiltrationofwaterintothesoil,stormsewersareinstalledtoprovide
undergrounddrainageofthesurface.Whilethismaypreventlocalfloodingofstreets,it
moveswatermorerapidlytothemajorstreamsystemsandthusdecreasesthelagtimeand
increasesthepeakdischargeofthestreamscollectingtherunofffromthestormsewers.
ReductionofinfiltrationAnytimethesurfacematerialsoftheEartharecoveredwith
impermeablematerialslikeconcrete,asphalt,orbuildings,theinfiltrationofwaterintothe
soilisprevented.Urbanizationtendstoreduceinfiltration,andthuswatermustcollectin
stormsewersandeventuallyinthemaindrainagesystems.Thus,extensiveurbanization
alsodecreasesthelagtimeandincreasesthepeakdischargeevenfurther.Urbanizationcan
thereforeleadtoahigherincidenceofflashfloods.

MitigationofFloodHazards
Mitigationoffloodhazardscanbeattemptedintwomainways:Anengineeringapproach,to
controlflooding,andaregulatoryapproachdesignedtodecreasevulnerabilitytoflooding.
EngineeringApproaches
ChannelmodificationsAsdiscussedabove,channelization.canenlargecrosssectional

areaandthuscreateasituationwhereahigherstageisnecessarybeforeflooding.Inother
wordsbyenlargingthecrosssectionalarea,higherdischargecanbeheldwithinthe
channel.Channelizationalsoincreaseswatervelocity,andthusreducesdrainagetime.

DamsDamscanbeusedtoholdwaterbacksothatdischargedownstreamcanbe
regulatedatadesiredrate.Humanconstructeddamshavespillwaysthatcanbeopenedto
reducethelevelofwaterinthereservoirbehindthedam.Thus,thewaterlevelcanbe
loweredpriortoaheavyrain,andmorewatercanbetrappedinthereservoirandreleased
lateratacontrolleddischarge.
RetentionpondsRetentionpondsserveasimilarpurposetodams.Watercanbetrapped
inaretentionpondandthenreleasedatacontrolleddischargetopreventflooding
downstream.
Levees,Dikes,andFloodwallsThesearestructuresbuiltalongsidethechannelto
increasethestageatwhichthestreamfloods.Somecontroversyhasdevelopedconcerning
theuseofsuchstructures.Forexample,duringthe1993floodsontheupperMississippi
River,thecityofSt.Louiswaspreventedfromfloodingbyclosingthefloodwalls.This
essentiallynarrowedtheriverchannelasitpassedSt.Louisandcausedslowingofthe
River.Becauseoftherestrictedchannel,floodwaterswereforcedtoflowintoareasboth
upstreamanddownstreamfromSt.Louis,perhapsincreasingthedamageinthetheseareas.
FloodwaysFloodwaysareareasthatcanbebuilttoprovideanoutlettoastreamand
allowitfloodintoanareathathasbeendesignatedasafloodway.Floodwaysareareas
wherenoconstructionisallowed,andwherethelandisusedforagriculturalorrecreational
purposeswhenthereisnothreatofaflood,butwhichprovideanoutletforfloodwaters
duringperiodsofhighdischarge.TheBonnetCarrieSpillwaywestofNewOrleansissuch
afloodway.DuringlowstagesoftheMississippiRiverthelandbetweentheRiverand
LakePontchartrainisusedforrecreationalpurposeshunting,fishing,anddirtbikeriding
forexample.DuringhighstagesoftheRiverwhenthereisapotentialfortheRivertorise
tofloodstageinNewOrleans,thespillwayisopenedsothatwaterdrainsintoLake
Pontchartrain.ThislowersthelevelofwaterintheMississippiandreducesthepossibility
ofaleveebreakorwaterovertoppingthelevee.

RegulatoryApproachestoReduceVulnerability

Withabetterunderstandingofthebehaviorofstreams,theprobabilityofflooding,andareas
likelytobefloodedduringhighdischarge,humanscanundertakemeasurestoreduce
vulnerabilitytoflooding.Amongthesenonstructuralmeasuresare:

FloodplainzoningLawscanbepassedthatrestrictconstructionandhabitationof
floodplains.Insteadfloodplainscanbezonedforagriculturaluse,recreation,orotheruses
whereinlivesandpropertyarenotendangeredwhen(notethatIdidnotusethewordif)
floodwatersreoccupythefloodplain.
FloodplainbuildingcodesStructuresthatareallowedwithinthefloodplaincouldbe
restrictedthosethatcanwithstandthehighvelocityoffloodwatersandarehighenoughoff
thegroundtoreduceriskofcontactwithwater.
FloodplainbuyoutprogramsInareasthathavebeenrecentlyflooded,itmaybemorecost
effectiveforthegovernment,whichusuallypaysforflooddamageeitherthrough
subsidizedfloodinsuranceordirectdisasterrelief,tobuytherightstothelandratherthan

paythecostofreconstructionandthenhavetopayagainthenexttimetheriverfloods.

MortgagelimitationsLendinginstitutionscouldrefusetogiveloanstobuyorconstruct
dwellingsorbusinessesinfloodproneareas.
Examplesofquestionsonthismaterialthatcouldbeaskedonanexam
1.Listtheprimary,secondary,andtertiaryeffectsofflooding.
2.Explainwhatismeantbythe"100yearflood".
3.BeabletointerpretfloodfrequencydiagramsliketheonegivenforFargo,NorthDakotaor
theoneyouconstructedinyourhomework.Asanexampleyoushouldbeabletoanswer
questionslikethefollowingforanyfloodfrequencydiagram.(a)approximatelyhowmany
timeshastheRedRiverexceededadischargeof33feetbetween1882and2009?(b)what
isthedischargeandstageforthe100yearfloodontheRedRiver?(c)Whatisthe
probabilitythattheRedRiverattainsadischargeof5,000ft3/seceachyear?
4.Whatistheprobabilitythatthe100yearfloodwilloccurinanygivenyear?
5.Howdoeshumandevelopmentaffectfloodhazards?
6.Whatengineeringapproachesareavailabletoreducetheriskofflooding?
7.Besidesengineeringsolutions,whatotherstepscanbetakentoreducevulnerabilityto
flooding?
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