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Scientific ReasoningA primer

Rodin. The Thinker

Though reasoning is a critical


component in science it is not
often given much attention in
undergraduate curricula so I
would like to briefly identify
some important concepts

Some Concepts

Deterministic/Stochastic Processes
Causation vs Correlation
Inductive vs Deductive Reasoning
Mutually-exclusive and exhaustive
Reductionism and Holism
Necessity and Sufficiency
Hypothesis testing-falsifiable
hypothesis

Deterministic/Stochastic Processes

A Deterministic process is one that is a function


of its initial state.

Trivial example -the time shown on a given watch at


9:00am tomorrow depends on its setting today.
Biological example -the size of peas produced in
offspring are determined by the genes of the parents.

A Stochastic process is one that is random in


outcome (does not depend on initial state).

Trivial example -the outcome of the roll of two dice


is random (all possibilities are equally likely.
Biological example -the inheritance of an X
chromosome by a son is random (he can inherit either
of the two sex chromosomes with equal probability).

Causation vs Correlation

Many scientific studies imply a causative


results from correlation results but
Correlations only suggest associations
they do not indicate causation.
Can use correlations to formulate
hypotheses which can be tested
experimentally to demonstrate causation.

Inductive vs Deductive Reasoning

Deduction-proceeding from the general to


the specific.

Trivial example - because of Newtons law of gravity,


when I kick a ball in the air it will come down.
Biological example -the inheritance of an X
chromosome by a son is random (he can inherit either
of the two sex chromosomes with equal probability).

Induction-proceeding from the specific to


the general.

Trivial example -The ball I kicked in the air fell down


so the next ball I kick will also fall down
Biological example The first four offspring had red
hair so the fifth child will have red hair.

Mutually-exclusive and exhaustive


experimental outcomes

a set of experimental outcomes is said to


be mutually exclusive if they do not
intersect and are exhaustive if the sum of
the set accounts for all possibilities.

Trivial example the precipitation today will


either be clear, rain or hail. (are mutually
exclusive but not exhaustive (since snow was
omitted))
Biological example in a dihybrid cross, the
9:3:3:1 ratio of possible offspring represents all
possible results (are both mutually exclusive and
exhaustive...)

Reductionism and Holism

Reductionism - the view that complex


processes can be can explained by simple,
fundamental rules

Biological example - the lac operon (and gene


regulation in general can be described by simple
models.

Holism - the view that processes are


complex and not amenable to simplification

Biological example organization with in


ecosystems.

Necessity and Sufficiency

If a factor is required for a given


phenomenon, it is said to be necessary.
If that factor alone is required it is said to
be sufficient.
Example hydrogen bonding between
DNA strands is both necessary and
sufficient for annealing of complementary
DNA strands

Hypothesis testing

- The falsifiable

hypothesis

Karl Popper developed the notion that hypotheses survive


attempts at falsification and thus become theories

What make a good hypothesis?

Must be testable
Simple (unqualified)
challenge established paradigms
be broadly applicable (and useful)
make specific testable predictions

Examples of Good Hypotheses

Non-Biological The stock market will


crash tomorrow. (simple, broad,
challenges conventional thought, makes a
specific prediction and is testable.)

Biological - Bacterial infections are


responsible for most ulcers in humans.
(how does this fit with our stated
criterion?)

Famous Scientific Philosophers


Plato
429-347 BC

-formalized scientific inquiry

I.Kant
1724-1804

-science is dependent on the observer


not just the objects being studied.

Bert Russell
1872-1970

-developed rule of logic applied to


science (mainly math)

L.
Wittgenstein
1889-1951

-extended Russells work on the logic


of philosophy

Karl Popper
1902-1994

-formalized hypothesis testing

Ayn Rand
1905-1982

-founded objectivism essentially a


form of extreme rationalism

Thomas Kuhn
1922-1996

-developed the idea that progression


in science occurs through revolution

Further Reading

Popper, Karl. The Logic of Scientific


Discovery, Routledge Press, London,
(1959).
Thomas Kuhn. The Structure of
Scientific Revolutions, University of
Chicago Press, Chicago (1962)

The end...

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