Joey Galin

11-15-2015
Russian American Relations
Richard Farkas
Policy Proposal
Specific Problem with Current Foreign Policy:
Russia is currently embroiled in the Syrian War, and the events of the last few
days have made it abundantly clear that the conflict is going to escalate in its severity
drastically. As it stands, Russia has been involved in the conflict through air strikes and
providing armaments and training to the Assad led government in Syria. This support of
Assad has put them in opposition with the United States. The United States, along with
France, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, support the rebel
groups that oppose the traditional Syrian government. The conflict is messy and tangled,
but Russias focus has been primarily on rebel locations. ISIS is the main threat here, and
the Russians need to recalibrate their focus, especially considering France has begun to
launch airstrikes in Raqqa, a city in Syria that is under ISISs control, and is poised to
ramp up its involvement against ISIS further than that.
The major issue with Russias involvement in Syria has been its lack of
coordination with the members of Europe and the United States, which has resulted in an
increase in tensions. They have very different visions for the future of Syria, but ISIS
stands as the preeminent threat to nearly every actor in this conflict. This lack of
coordination has not only muddied the conflict, which has allowed ISIS to thrive. It has
also served to make the relationship between the United States and Russia even more
fractious. It is a delicate situation, and Russia must partner their efforts with other
influential western and Arab countries to confer on a workable plan of action to combat

the ISIS threat, which is currently the largest threat to regional, domestic, and global
security in the world.
World situation that creates the opportunity for change:
The attacks Friday in Paris have markedly changed the global perception of the
conflict and have immediately raised the stakes for all parties involved. First and
foremost, it provides, similar to the 9/11 attacks, a common threat for a substantial
amount of countries. Now, more than ever, the global community is united in opposition
to a singular threat. France has now engaged ISIS with airstrikes and has sent their only
aircraft carrier to the region, which served to triple their military strength there. Francois
Hollande, the French President, declared the attacks by ISIS as an act of war and then
evoked a mutual defense clause in the Lisbon Treaty, which created the European
Union (Labb), which suggests that they expect their allies in the European Union to join
in the fight. The world is now definitively united in opposition to ISIS, and the conflict is
going to increase in severity. Russia has a chance to help create a truly multilateral
solution to issues in the Middle East. The last decade was dominated by U.S. presence in
the region, and the reverberattions from their actions have been felt all over the world.
Reason for Putin to be interested:
This is an opportunity for Russia to assert itself in the global stage. Russias
involvement in Syria has allowed Putins support to increase to record highs (Bloomberg)
and public opinion all over the world is now craving action against ISIS. It is an
opportunity, once again, for a reset in relations. This tragedy is a chance for Russia to
become closer with the European Union, as all parties recognize that attacks similar to
those that just occurred could happen in any country in the world. Russia was just subject

to a smaller scale terrorist attack by ISIS; a major one in Moscow is within the realm of
possibility. This is a rare opportunity. France is the wronged nation, not the United States,
so it appears that they will attempt to set the agenda for now in the Syrian conflict. They
have already significantly increased their military commitment, and it appears that it is
just the beginning. The global community, for the most part, will likely support their
actions. This is a chance for common ground to be found with the West, where the United
States will not be leading the charge.
It is a chance for a truly multilateral coalition. It is a chance to truly form a major
role in deciding the course global affairs after almost two decades of relative passivity, it
will paint them as the good guys in the conflict, which will help the world forget about
Crimea, and it will increase ties with other countries, which will hopefully result in the
lessening of the economic sanctions. As long as the Russians do not commit a substantial
amount of ground troops and the effort is truly multilateral, this is a golden opportunity
for both Putin and Lavrov.
Concrete details for new foreign policy:
Russias role is to make the first step. Putin must reach out to France and partner
with them. They are receptive. Then offer overtures to the United States and get on the
same page with all of the major foreign actors in the conflict. Then, Putin must coordinate
with the United States and France to get the major leaders of the Syrian government and
the rebel groups to the table. The conflict is extremely messy and there are a vast amount
of different factions, so getting everyone to the table will be difficult. However, Lavrov
has already prepared a list of 38 opposition leaders, who could be brought into the

negotiating process (Mrizyan). That is a starting point to begin negotiating a ceasefire

with between the moderate factions that will play a role in reconstructing Syria.
Eventually, a real treaty must be worked, and a possible compromise could
involve Assad stepping down and new elections being held that include a variety of
factions, yet the character and institutions of the government remain the same. The
election would be officiated by a third party comprised of members that represent various
states involved in the conflict. However, a permanent peace should not be the main
objective at this time. Isis is the most important. Russia should work to form a coalition
with France, the United States, and their allies, which will allow them to focus France
will come to Russia, and they will be in a position to work through a . At this juncture,
however, a total negotiation to end the conflict should be tabled, and ISIS must be
combatted immediately. Once that is settled, a lasting treaty must be worked out, and
Russia, France, and the United States should help make that process a smooth transition.
Once a ceasefire is reached, a truly multilateral coalition must be created. Russia
should be involved, but it should not drive the agenda, nor any western country. They
should include as many Islamic countries, as they are integral in combatting ISIS. ISIS
uses the fact that it is non-Islamic countries bombing them to their advantage; it drives
recruitment, and furthers their narrative of a holy war. By including countries like Saudi
Arabia, Iran, Jordan, the UAE, and Iraq, a large blow to the legitimacy of ISISs claims
can be struck. The Muslim nations must play a major role, as they are the religious
leaders of Islam and ISISs attempts to create a global caliphate represent an assault on
their religion. This coalition must devise a strategy to combat ISIS, and it must be a
decision in which all countries involved play a role in making.

Russias tangible contributions should be limited. The intensity of the airstrikes

should be increased, and they should be coordinated with the United States and Frances
for maximum effectiveness. The goal should be to preserve as many Russian lives as
possible and relying on airstrikes greatly mitigates the risk of Russian casualties. Proper
military intelligence is imperative however, and civilian casualties must be avoided at all
cost. Recent history has shown that excessive civilian casualties will contribute more to
ISISs effort more than any of the organizations recruiters ever could. As the
involvement is guaranteed to make Russia an enemy to a large group, Putin must
strengthen his borders. To accomplish that, he should coordinate with the governments of
Russias numerous border states and increase patrols in the areas. Likewise, Russians
should not be allowed to travel to and from the Middle East and those trying to immigrate
into Russia must be highly scrutinized. Russia should continue their limited physical
presence in the region. According to Reuters, they currently have four thousand troops in
Syria. That number should and will increase, but it should not reach levels higher than ten
thousand. This is not Russias fight alone and their troop contribution should not be
substantial.
Costs / Payoffs
Advantages

Cutting out ISIS at the root eliminates

likelihood that their influence extends
into Russias near abroad.
Offers opportunity for Russia to
reintegrate economically with
European countries. Warming of
relations could lead to the countries
lessening the economic sanctions
levied against them as a result of their
actions in Crimea
Effectively combining with the

Disadvantages

Russia becomes further

entangled in a foreign conflict
at a time when their economy
cannot afford it.
West is in a position to dictate
the terms of the conflict. Russia
would be outnumbered at the
strategy table and it is possible
policies similar to the attempted
Iraqi reconstruction would be
instituted in Syria.

European countries, the Arab

countries, and the United States to
combat ISIS would help create the
more multilateral approach to global
conflicts Putin has publicly stated he
desires.
Russia possibly could negotiate a
nonviolent transition of power that
retains the legitimacy of Syrian
government, propping up a strong
ally.
Russia strengthens ties with Europe,
developing positive aspects to its
relationships with European
countries, which will be beneficial for
the coming years.
Russia reclaims a role in shaping the
manner in which various states react
to terrorism.
Synthesizing of Russian, American,
and French airstrikes creates a
powerful trio of forces that can
devastate ISIS.
Russia gets to be portrayed as the
good guy in the West, and as strong
and formidable to its own citizens.

Russias airstrike campaign

further destabilizes the region
and could possibly foment
increased anti-Russian
sentiment in the area, which
could lead to attacks similar to
the Paris ones occurring in
Russia.
It is possible that various
factions in Syria would take
advantage of the ceasefire, and
the presence of a coalition of
various militaries in Syria could
lead to further destabilization of
the country.
The majority of the European
Union and the United States
may choose to refrain from
joining the attack, leaving the
conflict as a predominantly
Russian military operation.
Russia loses some autonomy in
their decision making by
shaping a post conflict Syria.
Russia could alienate the region
and overextend its military.
Could be reminiscent of the
Soviet Unions experience in
Afghanistan.

Works Cited
Anishchuk, Alexei. "Putin Gains Record Support Among Russians Over Syria, Poll
Shows." Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg, 22 Oct. 2015. Web. 17 Nov. 2015.
Balmer, Chine Labb and Crispian. "'France Is at War': Hollande Seeks to Unite France,
US, and Russia into Single Anti-ISIS Coalition." Business Insider. Business Insider,
Inc, 16 Nov. 2015. Web. 17 Nov. 2015.
Landay, Jonathan. "Russia's Syria Force Grows to 4,000, U.S. Officials Say." Reuters.
Thomson Reuters, 04 Nov. 2015. Web. 17 Nov. 2015.
Mirzayan, Gevorg. "The Most Important Russian Foreign Policy Events of the Week."
Russia DIrect. N.p., 10 Nov. 2015. Web.