Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1. Introduction
Daniel Andrei
Fall 2012
1 / 67
My Background
2 / 67
Outline
I Class Organization
II Introduction to Derivatives
Definitions
Buying and Short-Selling
Continuous Compounding
Forward Contracts
Call Options
Put Options
Moneyness, Put-Call Parity
Options Are Insurance
Various Strategies
4
10
11
17
22
27
33
40
46
56
58
3 / 67
Outline
I Class Organization
II Introduction to Derivatives
Definitions
Buying and Short-Selling
Continuous Compounding
Forward Contracts
Call Options
Put Options
Moneyness, Put-Call Parity
Options Are Insurance
Various Strategies
4
10
11
17
22
27
33
40
46
56
58
4 / 67
Useful Information
I
Class materials:
I
I
My contact information:
I
I
I
I
Office: C4.01
Office hours: Room C4.14, Tuesday (Oct 2 - Dec 11), 5-6 pm or by
appointment
Email: nimesh.patel.2015@anderson.ucla.edu
5 / 67
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:
6:
7:
8:
Sep. 27
Oct. 4
Oct. 11
Oct. 18
Oct. 25
Nov. 1
Nov. 8
Nov. 15
Week 9: Nov. 29
Week 10: Dec. 6
Introduction to derivatives
Chapters 1, 2, 3, 9,
Appendix B
Chapters 10, 11
Black-Scholes, Greeks
Chapters 12, 13
Chapters 5, 6, 7, 8
Midterm: Week 7 (Thursday, Nov. 8), 1.5 hours, open book exam
Final exam: Thursday, Dec. 13, D-313, 1.5 hours, open book exam
6 / 67
Evaluation
I
I
To register, please follow this link. Please use an email address that
explicitely shows your name (preferably your UCLA Anderson email
address).
Once links are posted, they will be available online for two weeks.
Once available, you can solve them as many times as you want. I
strongly advise working in groups, but you will have to submit your
answers individually.
Grade formula: 40% final exam, 30% midterm, 20% quizzes, 10%
class participation.
7 / 67
name
telephone number
8 / 67
Ground Rules
These rules help ensure that no one interferes with the learning of another:
I
9 / 67
Outline
I Class Organization
II Introduction to Derivatives
Definitions
Buying and Short-Selling
Continuous Compounding
Forward Contracts
Call Options
Put Options
Moneyness, Put-Call Parity
Options Are Insurance
Various Strategies
4
10
11
17
22
27
33
40
46
56
58
10 / 67
What is a Derivative?
Definition
I
Types
I
Uses
I
I
I
I
Risk management
Speculation
Reduce transaction costs
Regulatory arbitrage
11 / 67
End-users:
I Researchers
I Corporations
Intermediaries:
I Market-makers
I Traders
End-users:
I Investment managers
End-users:
I Investors
12 / 67
Financial Engineering
I
I
I
I
I
Examples:
I
13 / 67
200
100
85
1,9
1,9
90
95
1,9
2,0
00
05 ,010
2
2,0
85
1,9
1,9
90
95
1,9
2,0
00
05
2,0
10
2,0
15 / 67
600,000
400,000
200,000
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
1,9 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0
source: Bank for International Settlements, Quarterly Review, June 2012.
http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm
16 / 67
Brokers: commissions
ask (offer)
bid
17 / 67
18 / 67
18 / 67
Short-Selling
I
Action
Cash
Day 0
Borrow shares
Sell shares
+S0
Dividend Ex-Day
Day 90
Return shares
Purchase shares
S90
19 / 67
21 / 67
Continuous Compounding
I
Effective annual rate r : if you invest $1 today, T years later you will
have
(1 + r )T
1+
r nT
n
e rT lim
22 / 67
Continous Compounding
24 / 67
What is the effective return over the first year? What is the continuously
compounded return?
What is the effective return over the second year? The continuously
compounded return?
What do you notice when you compare the first- and second-year returns
computed arithmetically and continuously?
25 / 67
What is the effective return over the first year? What is the continuously
compounded return?
$200 $100
= 100%
$100
$200
= 69.31%
continuously compounded return = ln
$100
effective return =
What is the effective return over the second year? The continuously
compounded return?
$100 $200
= 50%
$200
$100
= 69.31%
continuously compounded return = ln
$200
effective return =
What do you notice when you compare the first- and second-year returns
computed arithmetically and continuously?
25 / 67
Stocks
Payoff ($)
Payoff ($)
Treasury Bills
26 / 67
Forward Contracts
27 / 67
Forward and futures contracts are essentially the same except for the
daily resettlement feature of futures contracts, called
marking-to-market.
28 / 67
The term long is used to describe the buyer and short is used to
describe the seller.
Payoff for
I
I
30 / 67
Long forward
Payoff ($)
100
100
$1, 020
200
800
900
1,000
Short forward
1,100
1,200
31 / 67
32 / 67
Call Options
Preserves the upside potential, while at the same time eliminating the
downside
33 / 67
A call option gives the owner the right but not the obligation to buy
the underlying asset at a predetermined price during a predetermined
time period
Strike (or exercise) price: the amount paid by the option buyer for the
asset if he/she decides to exercise
Exercise: the act of paying the strike price to buy the asset
I
I
I
34 / 67
35 / 67
(1)
(2)
36 / 67
200
200
Long forward
Purchased call
100
Profit ($)
Payoff ($)
100
Purchased
call
$95.68
100
100
200
200
$1, 020
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
37 / 67
200
200
100
100
Profit ($)
Payoff ($)
$95.68
100
Written
call
100
Written call
200
800
900
1,000
1,100
$1, 020
200
1,200
800
900
1,000
Short forward
1,100
1,200
38 / 67
Profit ($)
100
Purchased
call
$95.68
100
200
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Profit ($)
100
Purchased
call
$95.68
100
200
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Put Options
A put option gives the owner the right but not the obligation to sell
the underlying asset at a predetermined price during a predetermined
time period.
(3)
(4)
40 / 67
200
200
Purchased put
Short forward
100
Profit ($)
Payoff ($)
100
100
100
200
200
Purchased
put
$95.68
$1, 020
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
42 / 67
200
200
100
100
Profit ($)
Payoff ($)
100
Long forward
$95.68
Written
put
100
Written put
200
800
900
$1, 020
200
1,000
1,100
1,200
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
43 / 67
44 / 67
40
Payoff (blue) or profit (red) ($)
30
Payoff
20
Profit
10
0
10
$3.5208
20
40
60
Stock Price ($)
80
44 / 67
Position
Long forward
Short forward
Long call
Short call
Long put
Short put
Maximum Loss
Forward price
Unlimited
FV(premium)
Unlimited
FV(premium)
FV(premium) Strike price
Maximum Gain
Unlimited
Forward Price
Unlimited
FV(premium)
Strike price FV(premium)
FV(premium)
45 / 67
Moneyness
46 / 67
Put-Call Parity
I
Suppose you are buying a call option and selling a put option on a
non-dividend paying stock. Both options have maturity T and strike
price K :
Combined position
Payoff ($)
Payoff ($)
Long call
Short put
47 / 67
Positions that have the same payoff should have the same cost (Law
of one price):
Ct Pt = St PV (K )
(5)
(6)
Pt = Ct St + PV (K )
(7)
and that
49 / 67
Parity shows that the reason for the call being more expensive is the
time value of money:
Ct Pt = K PV (K ) > 0
(8)
This argument also seems to suggest that every stock is worth more
than its price!
50 / 67
51 / 67
51 / 67
If the stock is paying dividends over the lifetime of the option, the
put-call parity becomes
Ct Pt = [St PV (Div)] PV (K )
(9)
(10)
Pt = Ct [St PV (Div)] + PV (K )
(11)
52 / 67
Call option
price somewhere here
K Pt
Put option
price somewhere here
St
54 / 67
Payoff ($)
13,000
Final payoff is
12,000
Payoff of Equity-Linked CD
11,000
Sfinal
1
$10, 000 1 + 0.7 max 0,
1300
i
10,000
9,000
$1,300
8,000
600
800
55 / 67
2,000
Long S&R Index
Long put
1,000
Payoff ($)
1,000
Payoff ($)
Combined payoff
0
1,000
0
1,000
2,000
2,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
56 / 67
2,000
Long call
1,000
Payoff ($)
Payoff ($)
1,000
0
1,000
0
Combined payoff
1,000
Short S&R Index
2,000
2,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
57 / 67
Straddle
Profit ($)
Profit ($)
Profit ($)
Collar
Strangle
Butterfly Spread
Ratio Spread
Profit ($)
Profit ($)
Profit ($)
58 / 67
Bull Spread
Klow
Call
Put
KATM
Khigh
Buy
Sell
Strangle
Klow
Call
Put
KATM
Call
Put
KATM
Straddle
Khigh
Sell
Buy
Klow
Call
Put
Butterfly Spread
Khigh
Buy
Buy
Klow
Call
Put
Klow
KATM
Khigh
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
KATM
Khigh
Buy
Buy
Ratio Spread
Klow
Call
Put
KATM
Buy
Khigh
Sell (n)
Note that you can achieve the same results with different combinations
(but always at the same cost!)
59 / 67
Strangle
Collar
I
A collar is fundamentally a
short position (resembling a
short forward contract)
Butterfly Spread
I
I
I
Straddle
I
Ratio Spread
I
Stocks
Payoff ($)
Payoff ($)
Treasury Bills
61 / 67
Reproduced from: Gregoriou and Lhabitant, Madoff: A riot of Red Flags, 2009
62 / 67
63 / 67
Slope = 1.0375
40
Slope = 1.2206
30
$34
20
$40
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
WCOMs Average Stock Price at Closing
64 / 67
In July 2004, Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (ticker symbol MI) raised $400
million by issuing mandatorily convertible bonds effectively
maturing in August 2007
65 / 67
30
Slope = 0.5402
20
Slope = 0.6699
10
$37.32
$46.28
20
40
60
80
Marshall & Ilsley Stock Price ($)
66 / 67
No Volatility View
Sell underlying
Do nothing
Buy underlying
67 / 67
Daniel Andrei
Fall 2012
1 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
2 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
3 / 60
4 / 60
The word binomial refers to the fact that there are only two
outcomes (we let the underlying price move to only one of two
possible new prices).
5 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
6 / 60
up
uS
dow
d S
7 / 60
A Simple Example
I
XYZ does not pay dividends and its current price is $41. In one year
the price can be either $59.954 or $32.903, i.e., u = 1.4623 and
d = 0.8025.
C =?
dS = 32.903
Cd = max [0, 32.903 40] = 0
8 / 60
59.954 + e 0.08 B
32.903 + e 0.08 B
= 19.954
=0
(1)
9 / 60
(2)
i.e., buy 0.738 shares of XYZ and borrow $22.405 at the risk-free rate.
I
Thus, we obtain that the option and the replicating portfolio have the
same payoff: $19.954 if the stock price goes up and $0 if the stock
price goes down.
10 / 60
By the law of one price, positions that have the same payoff should
have the same cost.
(3)
11 / 60
Suppose that the market price for the option is $8 instead of $7.839
(the option is overpriced).
We can sell the option and buy a synthetic option at the same time
(buy low and sell high). The initial cash flow is
$8.00 $7.839 = $0.161
(4)
Written call
0.738 purchased shares
Repay loan of $22.405
Total payoff
12 / 60
Suppose that the market price for the option is $7.5 instead of $7.839
(the option is underpriced).
We can buy the option and sell a synthetic option at the same time
(buy low and sell high). The initial cash flow is
$7.839 $7.5 = $0.339
(5)
Purchased call
0.738 short-sold shares
Sell T-bill
Total payoff
13 / 60
A Remarkable Result
14 / 60
We can write the stock price as uS0 when the stock goes up and dS0
when the stock goes down. We can represent the tree for the stock
and the option as follows:
uS0
S0
C1u
C0
dS0
C1d
15 / 60
S0 u e h + B e rh
S0 d e h + B e rh
= C1u
= C1d
(6)
1
= e h S01(ud)
= e rh
C1d uC1u d
ud
= e rh C1u S0 ue h
(7)
16 / 60
rh
e
C1u
(r )h d
ud
+ C1d
u e (r )h
ud
(8)
17 / 60
The assumed stock price movements, u and d, should not give rise to
arbitrage opportunities. In particular, we require that
d < e (r )h < u
(9)
18 / 60
C1u C1d
S0 (ud)
C d uC u d
e r 1 ud 1
(10)
= e r (C1u S0 u)
u er
d
+ C1d
ud
ud
e
C1u
(11)
19 / 60
20 / 60
20 / 60
21 / 60
C1u =?
C2uu = 47.669
S2ud = 48.114
S1d = 32.903
C2ud = 8.114
C1d =?
S2dd = 26.405
C2dd = 0
Suppose that in period 1 the stock price is S1u = $59.954. We can use
equation (11) to derive the option price:
C1u
=e
u er
d
+ C2ud
ud
ud
e
C2uu
= $23.029
(12)
Using equations (10), we can also solve for the composition of the
replicating portfolio:
= 1, B = 36.925
(13)
i.e., buy 1 share of XYZ and borrow $36.925 at the risk-free rate,
which costs 1 $59.954 $36.925 = $23.029.
23 / 60
Suppose that in period 1 the stock price is S1d = $32.903. We can use
equation (11) to derive the option price:
C1d = e r C2ud
I
u er
er d
+ C2dd
ud
ud
= $3.187
(14)
Using equations (10), we can also solve for the composition of the
replicating portfolio:
= 0.374, B = 9.111
(15)
i.e., buy 0.374 shares of XYZ and borrow $9.111 at the risk-free rate,
which costs 0.374 $32.903 $9.111 = $3.187.
24 / 60
u er
d
+ C1d
ud
ud
e
C1u
= $10.737
(16)
Using equations (10), we can also solve for the composition of the
replicating portfolio:
= 0.734, B = 19.337
(17)
i.e., buy 0.734 shares of XYZ and borrow $19.337 at the risk-free
rate, which costs 0.734 $41 $19.337 = $10.737.
25 / 60
The two-period binomial tree with the option price at each node as
well as the details of the replicating portfolio is:
S2uu = $87.669
S1u = $59.954
C2uu = $47.669
C1u = $23.029
S0 = $41
C0 = $10.737
= 0.734
B = $19.337
=1
B = $36.925
S1d = $32.903
S2ud = $48.114
C2ud = $8.114
C1d = $3.187
= 0.374
B = $9.111
S2dd = $26.405
C2dd = $0
26 / 60
= $128.198
uuu
= $88.198
S3
uu
S2
uu
C2
=1
B = $36.925
C1 = $26.258
S0 = $41
= 0.798
B = $19.899
= $50.745
S1 = $59.954
C0 = $12.799
= $87.669
= 0.981
B = $32.580
d
S1 = $32.903
d
C1 = $4.685
C3
ud
S2
= $48.114
ud
C2
= $11.925
uud
= $70.356
uud
= $30.356
S3
C3
= 0.956
B = $34.086
= 0.549
dd
S2
= $26.405
B = $13.390
dd
C2
= $0
udd
= $38.612
udd
= $0
ddd
= $21.191
ddd
= $0
S3
C3
=0
B = $0
S3
C3
27 / 60
Self-Financing Strategy
Modifying the portfolio does not require additional cash. Thus, the
replicating portfolio is self-financing.
28 / 60
Modifying the portfolio does not require additional cash. Once again,
the replicating portfolio is self-financing.
29 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
30 / 60
Put Options
We compute put option prices using the same stock price tree and in
the same way as call option prices.
31 / 60
P2uu = $0
P1u = $0
S0 = $41
=0
P0 = $3.823
B = $0
= 0.266
S1d = $32.903
B = $14.749
P1d = $7.209
S2ud = $48.114
P2ud = $0
= 0.626
B = $27.814
S2dd = $26.405
P2dd = $13.595
(18)
We can use this relationship to find the put price at all nodes:
S2uu = 87.669
C2uu = 47.669
S1u = 59.954
S0 = 41
C1u
= 23.029
P1u
=0
S1d
C1d
= 32.903
S2ud = 48.114
C2ud = 8.114
C0 = 10.737
P0 = 3.823
P2uu = 0
= 3.187
P1d = 7.209
P2ud = 0
S2dd = 26.405
C2dd = 0
P2dd = 13.595
33 / 60
34 / 60
34 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
35 / 60
If we split the year into n periods of length h (so that h = 1/n), the
standard deviation over the period of length h, h , is (assuming
returns are uncorrelated over time)
(19)
h = h
36 / 60
(20)
h
h
(21)
37 / 60
h
h
(22)
Return has two parts, one of which is certain [(r ) h], and the other
of which
and generates the up and down stock price
isuncertain
moves h .
Note that if we set volatility equal to zero, we are back to (20) and we
have St+h = uSt = dSt = St e (r )h . Zero volatility does not mean
that prices are fixed; it means that prices are known in advance.
38 / 60
= 1.4623
= 0.8025
(23)
39 / 60
40 / 60
40 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
41 / 60
Risk-Neutral Pricing
I
u e (r )h
e (r )h d
+ C1d
C1u
ud
ud
(r )h
(24)
C0 = e rh p C1u + (1 p ) C1d
I
(25)
Probability
0.4256
0.5744
(26)
43 / 60
(27)
3
X
h
i
3!
p k (1 p )3k max S0 u k d 3k K , 0
k! (3 k)!
(28)
k =0
= $12.799
I
n
X
h
i
n!
p k (1 p )nk max S0 u k d nk K , 0 (29)
k! (n k)!
k=0
46 / 60
47 / 60
Stock price
182.14
128.81
91.10
64.43
Probability
0.0953
0.3400
0.4044
0.1603
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
64.43
47 / 60
Thus, the option pricing formula, equation (25), can be said to price
options as if investors are risk-neutral.
48 / 60
Assume, as in our example, that a stock does not pay dividends and
the length of a period is 1 year ( = 0 and h = 1).
Risk-Neutral Pricing
I
e d
ud
49 / 60
B
S0
e +
er
S0 + B
S0 + B
50 / 60
Are these two prices the same? Yes (proof left as an exercise).
Note that it does not matter whether we have the correct value of
to start with.
Any consistent pair of and will give the same option price.
51 / 60
52 / 60
Outline
I Discrete-Time Option Pricing: The Binomial Model
II Call Options
A One-Period Binomial Tree
The Binomial Solution
A Two-Period Binomial Tree
Many Binomial Periods
Self-Financing Strategy
6
7
15
22
27
28
30
35
V Risk-Neutral Pricing
41
VI American Options
53
53 / 60
American Options
I
54 / 60
American Call
55 / 60
S3uuu = $105.485
S2uu = $76.982
C2uu = $36.982
uu
C2,NO
= $35.213
uu
C2,EX
= $36.982
= $18.255
S2ud = $42.249
= $16.181
C2ud = $7.029
C0,NO = $8.635
S1d = $30.833
ud
C2,NO
= $7.029
C0,EX = $1
C1d = $2.761
ud
C2,EX
= $2.249
S0 = $41
C0 = $8.635
d
C1,NO
= $2.761
d
C1,EX
= $0
C3uuu = $65.485
S2dd = $23.187
C2dd
dd
C2,NO
= $0
dd
C2,EX
= $0
S3uud = $57.892
C3uud = $17.892
S3udd = $31.772
C3udd = $0
= $0
S3ddd = $17.437
C3ddd = $0
56 / 60
American Put
57 / 60
u
P1,NO
u
P1,EX
S3uuu = $105.485
S2uu = $76.982
P2uu = $0
uu
P2,NO
= $0
uu
P2,EX
= $0
= $2.314
S2ud = $42.249
= $0
P2ud = $4.363
P0,NO = $6.546
S1d = $30.833
ud
P2,NO
= $4.363
P0,EX = $0
P1d = $10.630
ud
P2,EX
= $0
d
P1,NO
= $10.630
d
P1,EX
= $9.167
P3uuu = $0
S2dd = $23.187
P2dd
dd
P2,NO
= $16.813
dd
P2,EX
= $16.813
S3uud = $57.892
P3uud = $0
S3udd = $31.772
P3udd = $8.228
= $15.197
S3ddd = $17.437
P3ddd = $22.563
58 / 60
59 / 60
59 / 60
Consider the cost and benefits of early exercise for a call option and a
put option. By exercising, the option holder
Call Option
Put Option
Fall 2012
1 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
2 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
3 / 74
We know that time moves forward at a rate faster than one day at a
time: hours, minutes, seconds, fractions of seconds, and fractions and
fractions of seconds
4 / 74
5 / 74
Since the length of the binomial period is shorter, u and d are closer
to 1 than before (1.2212 and 0.8637 as opposed to 1.4623 and 0.8025
with h = 1).
e (0.080)1/3 0.8637
= 0.4568
1.2212 0.8637
Probability
p 3 = 0.0953
3p 2 (1 p ) = 0.34
3p (1 p )2 = 0.4044
(1 p )3 = 0.1603
6 / 74
We can vary the number of binomial steps, holding fixed the time to
expiration,T . The general formula is
C0 = e
rT
n
X
h
i
n!
p k (1 p )nk max S0 u k d nk K , 0 (1)
k! (n k)!
k=0
7 / 74
The following table computes binomial call option prices, using the
same inputs as before.
Number of steps (n)
1
2
3
4
10
50
100
500
Changing the number of steps changes the option price, but once the
number of steps becomes great enough we appear to approach a
limiting value for the price, given by the Black-Scholes formula.
8 / 74
Call Price
7.5
7
0
6
8 10 12 14
Number of Steps (n)
16
18
20
9 / 74
10 / 74
Call Price
3.464
3.361
3.454
3.348
3.446
The observed values are slowly converging towards the Black-Scholes value
(3.399). Please note that the binomial solution oscillates as it approaches
the Black-Scholes value.
10 / 74
11 / 74
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.22
0.38
0.3
-0.44
-0.09
0.25
0.60
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
-0
.8
-0 7
.6
-0 8
.4
-0 9
.3
-0 0
.1
0. 1
0
0. 8
2
0. 7
4
0. 6
65
0.
8
1. 4
03
.1
6
0.
08
0.
32
0.
57
0.
81
-0
.4
-0
-0
.6
12 / 74
13 / 74
0.1
0.05
0
0
Black-Scholes Assumptions
14 / 74
There are seven inputs to the binomial model and six inputs to the
Black-Scholes model:
Inputs
Current price of the stock, S0
Strike price of the option, K
Volatility of the stock,
Continuously compounded risk-free
interest rate, r
Time to expiration, T
Dividend yield on the stock,
Number of binomial periods, n
Binomial
Model
X
X
X
X
BlackScholes
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
15 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
16 / 74
(2)
where
S0
K
+ r + 21 2 T
d1 =
T
d2 = d1 T
ln
(3)
(4)
17 / 74
Note that this result corresponds to the limit obtained from the
binomial model.
18 / 74
15
10
5
0
20
30
40
50
Stock Price
60
19 / 74
A Remarkable Result
20 / 74
We can easily identify (the position in the risky asset) and B (the
dollar amount of borrowing or lending) in the Black-Scholes formula:
= e T N (d1 )
(5)
B = Ke rT N (d2 )
(6)
21 / 74
S
S0 + B
(7)
A high stock beta implies a high option beta, so the discount rate for
the expected payoff of the option is correspondingly greater.
22 / 74
(8)
(9)
This follows from the formulas (2) and (8), together with the fact
that for any x , N (x ) = 1 N (x ).
23 / 74
24 / 74
10
5
0
20
30
40
50
Stock Price
60
25 / 74
26 / 74
26 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
27 / 74
Implied Volatility
Volatility is unobservable
28 / 74
29 / 74
0.15
0.14
1,100
1,120
1,140
Strike
30 / 74
31 / 74
If you need to price an option for which you cannot observe a market
price, you can use implied volatility to generate a price consistent with
the price of traded options
Implied volatility is often used as a quick way to describe the level of
option prices on a given underlying asset. Option prices are quoted
sometimes in terms of volatility, rather than as a dollar price
Volatility skew provides a measure of how well option pricing models
work
32 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
33 / 74
34 / 74
35 / 74
36 / 74
37 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
38 / 74
Market-Maker Risk
39 / 74
Suppose that the market-maker does not hedge the written option
(naked position) and the stock has the following evolution over the
next 5 days:
Day
0
1
2
3
4
5
Stock ($)
41
42.5
39.5
37
40
40
40 / 74
Stock ($)
41
42.5
39.5
37
40
40
Call
Position ($)
-339.47
-441.04
-246.31
-129.49
-271.04
-269.27
Daily
Profit ($)
-101.57
194.73
116.82
-141.55
1.77
41 / 74
Daily Profit
200
100
0
100
1
3
Day
42 / 74
Delta-Hedging
I
This suggests that a $1 increase in the stock price should increase the
value of the option by approximatively $0.645.
43 / 74
Delta-Hedging (contd)
Day
Stock
($)
Option
Delta
0
1
2
3
4
5
41
42.5
39.5
37
40
40
0.645
0.730
0.548
0.373
0.581
0.580
Stock
Position
(# shares)
64.54
73.03
54.81
37.27
58.06
58.01
Daily
Profit
(Call)
Daily
profit
(Shares)
Daily
profit
(Total)
-101.57
194.73
116.82
-141.55
1.77
96.81
-219.10
-137.02
111.82
0.00
-4.77
-24.38
-20.20
-29.73
1.77
44 / 74
Delta-Hedging (contd)
Naked Position
Delta Hedged
Daily Profit
200
100
0
100
1
3
Day
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
46 / 74
Option Greeks
Option Greeks are formulas that express the change in the option
price when an input to the formula changes, taking as fixed all
other inputs.
They are used to assess risk exposures. For example:
I
47 / 74
T t (t )
r
An increase in the stock price (St ) raises the chance that the call will
be exercised, thus raises the call option price. Conversely, it lowers
the put option price.
48 / 74
A higher interest rate reduces the present value of the strike (to be
paid by a call option holder), and thus increases the call price. The
put option entitles the owner to receive the strike, whose present
value is lower with a higher interest rate. Thus, a higher interest rate
decreases the put price.
A call entitle the holder to receive stock, but without dividends prior
to expiration. Thus, the greater the dividend yield, the lower the call
price. Conversely, a put option is more valuable when the dividend
yield is greater.
49 / 74
Greek
Definition
Mnemonic
St
(Delta)
St
(Gamma)
St
(Elasticity)
Vega
(theta)
vega
volatility
theta
time
(rho)
(Psi)
rho r
50 / 74
Let us come back to Table 1 and complete it with the proper signs of
the Greeks:
Input
St
t
r
Call Option
Ct
Call > 0
Call
Call > 0
Call 1
Ct
VegaCall > 0
Ct gen. Call gen. < 0
Ct
Call > 0
Ct
Call < 0
Put Option
Pt
Put < 0
Put
Put > 0
Put 0
Pt
VegaPut > 0
Pt ambig.
Put any
Pt
Put < 0
Pt
Put > 0
51 / 74
Suppose that the stock price is St = $41, the strike price is K = $40,
volatility is = 0.3, the risk-free rate is r = 0.08, the time to
expiration is T t = 1, and the dividend yield is = 0. The values for
the Greeks are
Input
St
t
r
Call Option
Call = 0.691
>0
Call = 0.029
>0
Call = 4.071
1
VegaCall = 0.144
>0
Call = 0.011
gen. < 0
Call = 0.214
>0
Call = 0.283
<0
Put Option
DeltaPut = 0.309
Put = 0.029
Put = 4.389
VegaPut = 0.144
Put = 0.003
Put = 0.156
Put = 0.127
<0
>0
0
>0
any
<0
>0
52 / 74
Delta ()
Measures the change in the option price for a $1 change in the stock price:
Call
Put
Delta
0.5
0
0.5
1
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
53 / 74
Gamma ()
Measures the change in delta when the stock price changes:
0.04
Call
Put
Gamma
0.03
0.02
0.01
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
54 / 74
Elasticity ()
Measures the percentage change in the option price relative to the
percentage change in the stock price:
Call
Put
10
Elasticity
5
0
5
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
55 / 74
Vega
Measures the change in the option price when volatility changes (divide by
100 for a change per percentage point):
Call
Put
0.15
Vega
0.1
0.05
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
56 / 74
Theta ()
Measures the change in the option price with respect to calendar time, t,
holding fixed the maturity date T . To obtain per-day theta, divide by 365.
Call
Put
Theta
0.01
0
0.01
0.01
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
57 / 74
Rho ()
Measures the change in the option price when the interest rate changes
(divide by 100 for a change per percentage point, or by 10,000 for a
change per basis point):
0.4
Call
Put
Rho
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
58 / 74
Psi ()
Measures the change in the option price when the continuous dividend
yield changes (divide by 100 for a change per percentage point):
Call
Put
0.2
Psi
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
20
30
40
Stock Price
50
60
59 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
60 / 74
Gamma-Neutrality
I
We cannot do this using just the stock, because the gamma of the
stock is zero (the delta of a stock is constant and equal to 1).
(10)
Gamma-Neutrality (contd)
The Greeks resulting form this position are in the last column of the
following table:
Price ($)
Delta ()
Gamma ()
Theta ()
40-Strike Call
3.395
0.645
0.061
-0.018
45-Strike Call
1.707
0.381
0.054
-0.014
Total Position
-1.481
-0.218
0
0.002
62 / 74
Gamma-Neutrality (contd)
This can be seen from the following figure. It compares the 1-day
holding period profit for delta-hedged position described earlier and
delta- and gamma hedged position.
63 / 74
Gamma-Neutrality (contd)
Delta-hedged
Delta- and gamma-hedged
10
20
30
38
39
40 41 42
Stock Price
43
44
64 / 74
Gamma-Neutrality (contd)
Delta-gamma hedging prevents the position from reacting to large
changes in the underlying stock:
Naked Position
-hedged
- and -hedged
200
Daily Profit
100
0
100
1
3
Day
65 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
66 / 74
Calendar Spreads
To protect against a stock price increase when selling a call, you can
simultaneously buy a call option with the same strike and greater time
to expiration.
This purchased calendar spread exploits the fact that the written
near-to-expiration option exhibits greater time decay than the
purchased far-to-expiration option, and therefore is profitable if the
stock price does not move.
67 / 74
Suppose you sell a 40-strike call with 91 days to expiration and buy a
40-strike call with 1 year to expiration. Assume a stock price of $40,
r = 8%, = 30%, and = 0.
The premiums are $2.78 for the 91-day call and $6.28 for the 1-year
call.
Theta is more negative for the 91-day call (-0.0173) than for the
1-year call (-0.0104). Thus, if the stock price does not change over
the course of 1 day, the position will make money since the written
option loses more value than the purchased option.
68 / 74
Short call
Calendar spread
10
30
40
50
Stock price ($)
60
69 / 74
Outline
I From Binomial Trees to the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula
Discrete Time vs Continuous Time
The Limiting Case of the Binomial Formula
Lognormality and the Binomial Model
Black-Scholes Assumptions
Inputs in the Binomial Model and in Black-Scholes
II Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Call Option
Black-Scholes Formula for a European Put Option
III Implied Volatility
IV WSJ reading
V Market-Maker Risk and Delta-Hedging
VI Option Greeks
VII Gamma-Neutrality
VIII Calendar Spreads
IX Appendix: Formulas for Option Greeks
3
4
5
11
14
15
16
17
23
27
33
38
46
60
66
70
70 / 74
Call =
(11)
Put
(12)
=
S 2
S T t
2P
= Call
=
S 2
Call =
(13)
Put
(14)
71 / 74
Call =
(15)
Put
(16)
Vega measures the change in the option price when volatility changes
(divide by 100 for a change per percentage point):
C
= Se (T t) N 0 (d1 ) T t
P
=
= VegaCall
VegaCall =
(17)
VegaPut
(18)
72 / 74
Call =
Put
Rho () measures the change in the option price when the interest
rate changes (divide by 100 for a change per percentage point, or by
10,000 for a change per basis point):
C
= (T t) Ke r (T t) N (d2 )
r
P
=
= (T t) Ke r (T t) N (d2 )
r
Call =
(21)
Put
(22)
73 / 74
Psi () Measures the change in the option price when the continuous
dividend yield changes (divide by 100 for a change per percentage
point):
C
= (T t) Se (T t) N (d1 )
P
=
= (T t) Se (T t) N (d1 )
Call =
(23)
Put
(24)
74 / 74
Fall 2012
1 / 62
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
2 / 62
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
3 / 62
2. Forward:
I Pay S0
I Pay F0,T =?
I Receive security
I Receive security
Time 0
Time T
4 / 62
(1)
Time 0
S0 e T
+S0 e T
0
0
Cash Flows
Time T (expiration)
ST
S0 e (r )T
F0,T ST
F0,T S0 e (r )T > 0
5 / 62
Time 0
S0 e T
S0 e T
0
0
Cash Flows
Time T (expiration)
ST
S0 e (r )T
ST F0,T
S0 e (r )T F0,T > 0
6 / 62
200
100
100
F0,T
200
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
ST
7 / 62
Risk-Neutral Valuation
The risk neutral technique also works for forward contracts. When the
contract is agreed to initially, its value is 0. Its payoff at maturity is
ST F0,T
Therefore
0 = S0 e T F0,T e rT
which yields F0,T = S0 e (r )T
8 / 62
Consider a call and a put having both the same maturity and the
same strike price.
Let the strike price be equal to the forward price with the same
maturity:
K = F0,T = S0 e (r )T
The price of a call equals the price of a put with the same maturity
when the strike price is equal to the forward price.
9 / 62
10 / 62
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
11 / 62
Futures Contracts
I
I
12 / 62
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
13 / 62
Index Futures
Figure 1 : Listing of various index futures contracts from the Wall Street
Journal, October 6-7, 2012.
14 / 62
Suppose the futures price is 1100 and you wish to enter into 8 long
futures contracts.
Suppose that there is 10% margin and weekly settlement (in practice
settlement is daily). The margin on futures contracts with a notional
value of $2.2 million is $220,000.
The margin balance today from long position in 8 S&P 500 futures
contracts is
Week
0
Multiplier ($)
2000.00
Futures Price
1100.00
Price Change
Over the first week, the futures price drops 72.01 points to 1027.99.
On a mark-to-market basis, we have lost
$2, 000 (72.01) = $144, 020
Multiplier ($)
2000.00
2000.00
Futures Price
1100.00
1027.99
Price Change
-72.01
The decline in margin balance means the broker has significantly less
protection should we default. For this reason, participants are required
to maintain the margin at a minimum level, called the maintenance
margin. This is often set at 70% to 80% of the initial margin level.
Multiplier ($)
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
2000.00
Futures Price
1100.00
1027.99
1037.88
1073.23
1048.78
1090.32
1106.94
1110.98
1024.74
1007.30
1011.65
Price Change
-72.01
9.89
35.35
-24.45
41.54
16.62
4.04
-86.24
-17.44
4.35
The futures and forward profits differ because of the interest earned
on the mark-to-market proceeds (in the present cases, we have
founded losses as they occurred and not at expiration, which explains
the loss).
19 / 62
There is one very important difference with the S&P 500 contract:
Settlement of the contract is in a different currency (dollars) than the
currency of denomination for the index (yen)
I
I
21 / 62
Suppose that the current index price, S0 , is $100, and the effective
1-year risk-free rate is 10%. The forward price is therefore $110. The
effect of owning the stock and selling forward is
Transaction
Own stock @ $100
Short forward @ $110
Total
Today
-$100
0
-$100
Cash Flows
1 year, S1 = $80 1 year, S1 = $130
$80
$130
$110 - $80
$110 - $130
$110
$110
22 / 62
I
I
23 / 62
Currency Futures
Figure 2 : Listing of various currency futures contracts from the Wall Street
Journal, October 6-7, 2012.
24 / 62
Currency Contracts
I
Suppose that T years from today you want to buy U1 with dollars.
Denote the yen-denominated interest rate by ry , the
dollar-denominated interest rate by r , and the exchange rate today
($/U) by x0
(2)
The forward currency rate will exceed the current exchange rate when
the domestic risk-free rate is higher than the foreign risk-free rate
Notice that equation (2) is just like equation (1), for stock index
futures, with the foreign interest rate equal to the dividend yield.
25 / 62
Year 0
$
+x0 e ry T
x0 e ry T
+e ry T
e ry T
0
Year T
$
x0 e (r ry )T
x0 e (r ry )T
1
1
26 / 62
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
27 / 62
Figure 3 : Listing of various currency futures contracts from the Wall Street
Journal, October 6-7, 2012.
28 / 62
(3)
29 / 62
When we observe the forward price, we can infer the lease rate.
Specifically, if the forward price is F0,T , the annualized lease rate is
F0,T
1
l = r ln
T
S0
(4)
1+r
(F0,T /S0 )1/T
(5)
30 / 62
31 / 62
319
125
318
Backwardation
120
317
Backwardation
Contango
115
316
110
315
1
3
4
Months to Maturity
4
5
6
Months to Maturity
395.5
39
395
38.5
Contango
Backwardation
394.5
38
394
37.5
393.5
2
4
5
6
Months to Maturity
3
4
5
Months to Maturity
32 / 62
450
400
350
300
250
200
Jul Sep
Dec
Dec
Expiration Month
33 / 62
The supply glut in the oil market has led to a contango price structure,
in which oil futures are priced higher than their spot price... Usually,
the market goes into contango when there is a supply glut, when
theres too much oil on the market. And this is what weve seen
happen just in the last few months as the recession fully set in and
people realized the days of easy credit and high oil prices are gone...
Theres just a lot of oil floating around with no demand to take it up.
Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange has been
trading in contango, a commodity price structure in which futures
contracts for near-term delivery are cheaper than further-out contracts.
But thats changed in the last few days... Currently, we do have rising
production from Libya, which does suggest more generous supply in the
months ahead... Aside from that, were also at a time of year when
global demand is strong seasonally and low seasonal demand in the
second quarter points to a potential surplus at that timea reason for
prices to be softer then.
34 / 62
Gold Futures
Months: Feb, Apr, Aug, Oct, out two years. Jun, Dec, out 5 years
36 / 62
1 + 0.039917
(269/265.7)1/0.5
1 = 1.456%
37 / 62
The interest rate for lending gold in exchange for dollars plunged to the
lowest on record this week as European banks sought ways to secure
the U.S. currency amid the regions debt crisis
European banks especially are having liquidity funding problems, which
does see a lot of lending of gold and thats putting downward pressure
on lease rates
38 / 62
Futures prices could see further declines if data later this week and
next show falling demand and rising stockpiles.
Natural gas for December delivery settled 11.2 cents lower at $3.691
per million British thermal units on New York Mercantile Exchange
electronic trading.
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
41 / 62
Bond Basics
1
[1+r (0,t2 )]t2
P(0, t2 )
P(0, t1 )
0
1
[1+r (0,t1 )]t1
$1
t1 years
P0 (t1 , t2 )
I
$1
t2 years
1
[1+r0 (t1 ,t2 )]t2 t1
$1
Notation:
I
I
I
I
Time 0
+P(0, t1 )
P(0, t1 )
0
Cash Flows
Time t1 Time t2
P(0,t1 )
P(0,t
2)
$1
1)
$1 P(0,t
P(0,t2 )
P(0, t2 )
1
t2 t1 =
P(0, t1 )
[1 + r0 (t1 , t2 )]
43 / 62
In June, the effective quarterly interest rate can be either 1.5% or 2%.
The implied June 91-day forward rate (the rate from June to
September) is 1.8%.
Borrow $100m
+$100m
44 / 62
rquarterly rFRA
notional principal
1 + rquarterly
45 / 62
Borrow $100m
FRA payment if rquarterly = 1.5%
FRA payment if rquarterly = 2%
Total
+$100m
+$100m
+$0.2m
-$101.8m
-$101.8m
Borrow $100m
FRA payment if rquarterly = 1.5%
FRA payment if rquarterly = 2%
Total
+$100m
$295, 566.50
+$196, 078.43
+$100m
46 / 62
Eurodollar Futures
Specifications for the Eurodollar futures contract
I
Months: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec, out 10 years, plus 2 serial months and
spot month
Trading ends: 5 A.M. (11 A.M. London) on the second London bank
business day immediately preceding the third Wednesday of the
current month
47 / 62
Figure 4 : Listing for the 3-month Eurodollar futures contract from the Wall
Street Journal, October 17, 2012.
48 / 62
50 / 62
Borrow $100m
Eurodollar payment if rquarterly = 1.5%
Eurodollar payment if rquarterly = 2%
+$100m
$300, 000
+$200, 000
51 / 62
This is like the payment on an FRA paid in arrears, except that the
futures contract settles in June, but our interest expense is not paid
until September.
100
= 98.2318
1 + 0.018
Transaction
Borrow $100m
Eurodollar payment if rquarterly = 1.5%
Eurodollar payment if rquarterly = 2%
Total
+$100m
$294, 695
+$196, 464
+$100m
52 / 62
Convexity Bias
I
I
When the interest rate turns out to be high (2%), the short Eurodollar
contract has a positive payoff and the proceeds can be reinvested at
the high realized rate
When the interest rate turns out to be low (1.5%), the short Eurodollar
contract has a negative payoff and we can found this loss until the loan
payment date by borrowing at a low rate
In order for the futures price to be fair to both the borrower and
lender, the rate implicit in the Eurodollar futures price must be higher
than a comparable FRA rate.
This difference between the FRA rate and the Eurodollar rate is called
convexity bias.
53 / 62
54 / 62
1 + 0.039917
(269/265.7)1/0.5
1 = 1.456%
54 / 62
Outline
I Pricing Forwards
II Futures Contracts
11
13
14
24
27
41
VI Options on Futures
55
55 / 62
Options on Futures
I
For futures options, the exercise of the option gives the holder a
position in the futures contract.
Why trade option on futures rather than options on the underlying
asset?
57 / 62
If we compare how the spot and futures price evolve on the tree, we
observe a different solution for u and d in the case of future prices
The solution is exactly what we would get for an option on a stock
index if , the dividend yield, were equal to the risk-free rate:
St+h = St e (r )h+
Ft+h,T = Ft,T e
St
Ft,T = St e (r )nh
St+h = St e (r )h
Ft+h,T = Ft,T e
d = e
58 / 62
The following figure shows the tree for pricing an American call
option on a gold futures contract.
59 / 62
S1u = $321.0
S0 = $300.0
F1d = $291.8
S1d = $286.0
60 / 62
F0 = $309.1
C0 = $17.1
C0,NO = $17.1
C0,EX = $9.1
C1u
u
C1,NO
u
C1,EX
F1d
C1d
d
C1,NO
= $29.1
= $29.1
= $27.5
F3uuu = $367.6
F2uu = $347.0
C2uu
uu
C2,NO
uu
C2,EX
= $47.0
= $46.2
= $47.0
F2ud = $309.1
= $13.1
= $291.8
C2ud
ud
C2,NO
= $6.3
ud
C2,EX
= $9.1
= $6.3
d
C1,EX
= $0
C3uuu = $67.6
F3uud = $327.5
C3uud = $27.5
= $13.1
F2dd = $275.4
F3udd = $291.8
C3udd = $0
C2dd = $0
dd
C2,NO
= $0
dd
C2,EX
= $0
F3ddd = $260.0
C3ddd = $0
61 / 62
62 / 62
Daniel Andrei
Fall 2012
1 / 67
Outline
I Swaps
Commodity Swaps
Interest Rate Swaps
Variance and Volatility Swaps
3
5
11
16
26
35
37
42
IV Revision
49
60
2 / 67
Outline
I Swaps
Commodity Swaps
Interest Rate Swaps
Variance and Volatility Swaps
3
5
11
16
26
35
37
42
IV Revision
49
60
3 / 67
Introduction to Swaps
4 / 67
The forward prices for delivery in 1 year and 2 years are $20 and
$21/barrel
5 / 67
IP can guarantee the cost of buying oil for the next 2 years by
entering into long forward contracts for 100,000 barrels in each of the
next 2 years. The present value of this cost per barrel is
$21
$20
+
= $37.383
1.06 1.0652
Thus, IP could pay an oil supplier any payment stream with a present
value of $37.383. Typically, a swap will call for equal payments in
each year
For example, the payment per year per barrel, x , will have to satisfy
the following equation
x
x
+
= $37.383
1.06 1.0652
We find x = $20.483 and we say that the 2-year swap price is $20.483
6 / 67
Pn
i=1 P(0, ti )F0,ti
P
n
i=1 P(0, ti )
(1)
7 / 67
A buyer with seasonally varying demand (e.g., someone buying gas for
heating) might enter into a swap in which quantities vary over time
Pn
i=1 Qti P(0, ti )F0,ti
P
n
i=1 Qti P(0, ti )
(2)
8 / 67
Oil
Swap Counterparty
Physical settlement
Spot $20.483
Oil Buyer
Swap Counterparty
Spot
Oil
Oil Seller
Financial settlement
9 / 67
P(0, 1)
1 = 7%
P(0, 2)
10 / 67
If swap payments are made at the end of the period (when interest is
due), the swap is said to be settled in arrears
11 / 67
XYZ Corp. has $200M of floating-rate debt at LIBOR, i.e., every year
it pays that years current LIBOR
XYZ could enter a swap, in which they receive a floating rate and pay
the fixed rate, which is 6.9548%
12 / 67
Pay LIBOR
Lender
Borrower (XYZ)
Pay 6.9548%
Receive LIBOR
Swap Counterparty
13 / 67
The implied forward interest rate from date ti1 to date ti , known at
date 0, is r0 (ti1 , ti )
R=
(3)
14 / 67
n
X
i=1
"
P(0, ti )
Pn
r (ti1 , ti )
j=1 P(0, tj )
(4)
Thus, the fixed swap rate is a weighted average of the implied forward
rates, where zero-coupon bond prices are used to determine the
weights
15 / 67
Just as stock investors think they know something about the direction
of the stock market, or bond investors think they can foresee the
probable direction of interest rates, so you may think you have insight
into the level of future volatility
Stock options are impure: they provide exposure to both the direction
of the stock price and its volatility
16 / 67
Volatility Swaps
(5)
where
I
R is the realized stock volatility (quoted in annual terms) over the life
of the contract
Kvol is the annualized volatility delivery price, typically quoted as a
volatility, for example 30%
N is the notional amount of the swap in dollars per annualized
volatility point, for example N = $250, 000/(volatility point)
17 / 67
I
I
I
I
I
18 / 67
19 / 67
Variance Swaps
R2 Kvar N
(6)
where
I
I
I
R2 is the realized stock variance (quoted in annual terms) over the life
of the contract
Kvar is the delivery price for variance, for example (30%)2
N is the notional amount of the swap in dollars per annualized
volatility point squared, for example N = $100, 000/(volatility point)2
20 / 67
Variance Swap
Payoff
5
0
Kvol
5
10
Volatility Swap
15
15
20
25
30
35
40
R
21 / 67
22 / 67
Ten years later in 2003, CBOE and Goldman Sachs updated the VIX
to reflect a new way to measure expected volatility. The new VIX is
based on the S&P 500 Index, and estimates expected volatility by
averaging the weighted prices of puts and calls over a wide range of
strike prices.
23 / 67
The CBOE utilizes a wide variety of strike prices for SPX puts and
calls to calculate the VIX
The generalized formula used in the VIX calculation is
2
2 X Ki rT
1 F0,T
2 X Ki rT
e Put(Ki ) +
e Call(Ki )
1
=
T
T
T K0
Ki2
Ki2
2
Ki K0
Ki >K0
where
I
I
I
I
I
is VIX/100
T is time to expiration (in order to arrive at a 30 day implied volatility
value, the calculation blends options expiring on two different dates,
with the result being an interpolated implied volatility number)
F0,T is the forward index price
Ki is the strike price of i th out-of-the-money option
r is the risk-free interest rate to expiration
24 / 67
80
60
40
20
Jan 2004
Jan 2006
Jan 2008
Jan 2010
Jan 2012
25 / 67
Outline
I Swaps
Commodity Swaps
Interest Rate Swaps
Variance and Volatility Swaps
3
5
11
16
26
35
37
42
IV Revision
49
60
26 / 67
27 / 67
(7)
t=1
where rt is the log return on period t and is the sample mean over
T periods
I
28 / 67
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
29 / 67
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
30 / 67
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
31 / 67
32 / 67
zt iid N(0, 1)
33 / 67
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
34 / 67
Outline
I Swaps
Commodity Swaps
Interest Rate Swaps
Variance and Volatility Swaps
3
5
11
16
26
35
37
42
IV Revision
49
60
35 / 67
Three extensions
1. The Merton jump diffusion model
2. The Constant Elasticity of Variance model (CEV)
3. The Heston model
36 / 67
h is the probability that one event occurs over the short interval h.
Thus, is like an annualized probability of the event occurring over a
short interval.
37 / 67
ln(Y ) N J , J2
0,
dSt
= ( k) dt + dZ +
St
Y 1,
I
if there is no jump
if there is a jump
(8)
Merton (1976) shows that with the stock following equation (8), and
with jumps diversifiable, the price of an European call is
0 T
X
e
(0 T )i
i=0
i!
BSCall S, K ,
i 2
iJ
2 J , r k +
, T , (9)
T
T
39 / 67
Suppose that the stock can jump to zero (i.e., Y = 0) with = 0.5%
probability per year
40 / 67
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.3
30
35
40
45
50
Strike Price
55
60
41 / 67
I
I
I
2
2
42 / 67
2
, 2x
1 Q 2y , 2 +
2
Ke
rT
2
Q 2x ,
, 2y
2
(10)
where
k=
2(r )
2 (2 )(e (r )(2)T
x = ks
y = kK
I
1)
2 (r )(2)T
2
, 2y
1 Q 2x ,
2
Ke
rT
2
Q 2y , 2 +
, 2x
2
(11)
44 / 67
Additionally, = 1 and
= 0.3 40 = 1.897
45 / 67
Implied Volatility
0.32
0.3
0.28
30
35
40
45
50
Strike Price
55
60
46 / 67
dv (t) = k(
v v (t))dt + v
v (t)dZ2
(12)
(13)
48 / 67
Outline
I Swaps
Commodity Swaps
Interest Rate Swaps
Variance and Volatility Swaps
3
5
11
16
26
35
37
42
IV Revision
49
60
49 / 67
Profit
50
0
50
Slope=1
100
Strike
Calls
80
120
50
100
150
Stock Price in one year
200
Shares
50 / 67
Profit
50
0
50
Slope=1
100
Strike
Puts
80
120
50
100
150
Stock Price in one year
200
Shares
51 / 67
52 / 67
53 / 67
(a) Decrease
(b) Increase
(c) Stay constant
(d) Indifferent
54 / 67
55 / 67
56 / 67
57 / 67
58 / 67
(a) Clustering
(b) Smile
(c) Skew
(d) Stochasticity
59 / 67
Outline
I Swaps
Commodity Swaps
Interest Rate Swaps
Variance and Volatility Swaps
3
5
11
16
26
35
37
42
IV Revision
49
60
60 / 67
Source: Bloomberg, By Michael Patterson and Eric Martin - February 19, 2010 14:16 EST
61 / 67
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2009
2010
2011
3
2
1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
62 / 67
Source: Yu (2009)
63 / 67
0.2
Stocks Diffusion
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
F
10
G
20
30
40
50
Time
64 / 67
Volatility is clustered
Returns
0.06
0.04
0.02
10
20
30
40
50
Time
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
65 / 67
66 / 67
66 / 67
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
66 / 67
The information
percolated during 6 hours
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
66 / 67
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
The information
percolated during 6 hours
Investors: 25
Investment: $5000 000
Trading profits: $10 3000 000
66 / 67
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
The information
percolated during 6 hours
Investors: 25
Investment: $5000 000
Trading profits: $10 3000 000
66 / 67
The data are never for the whole society given to a single
mind (Hayek, 1945, p. 519)
67 / 67
The data are never for the whole society given to a single
mind (Hayek, 1945, p. 519)
67 / 67