Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Progressing to Drawdown
June 2016
a.
b.
c.
Sold 1,415 apartments of the 1,661 launched (85%) with GDV of c1.85bn successfully capitalised on market conditions and de-risked the project.
Very positive progress with commercial leasing. Phase 1 is +90% leased. Entire
Phase 2 office under HoT to a market leading global tech form - capitalising
on the strong commercial market conditions.
Value added across the site - improving affordable housing values, improving
future residential mix and achieving planning consent for the Wharves.
PHASE
% Sold
Average sq ft
Phase 1
863
99%
1,067
Phase 2
232
>90%
2,172
Phase 3a
320
>58%
1,681
TOTAL
1,415
Strong sales performance to date means the project is well positioned within the current residential market conditions.
Provides the opportunity for a proactive sales strategy which focuses on the medium / long term value drivers.
PHASE ONE
GROUND FLOOR
THE POWER STATION
Phase 1 commercial is over 90% let - independent artisan strategy to create Londons
new riverside village.
Arch No.
744
UNIT 05
1413sf
SECURITY HUB
BOOM CYCLE
UNITS 01 & 03
ARCHES ROAD
4,585 sf
Arch No.
754
Arch No.
755
Arch No.
Arch No. 758
759
HARBOUR
HARBOUR CLUB
CLUB
Arch No.
757
DODDS
Arch No.
753
Arch No.
752
RAW
DUCK
Arch No.
751
Arch No.
750
WHIRLED
CINEMA
Arch No.
749
WHIRLED
CINEMA
Arch No.
748
Arch No.
746
Arch No.
747
Arch No.
745
Estate
Storage
Estate
Storage
Staff
Welfare
Public
WCs
KEY
Academy
Advanced Negotiations
HOTs Issued
In Solicitors Hands
Arch No.
756
Exchanged
Available
BPSDC Space
As at 22nd April 2016
Note: For office units, Net of WCs area is being used
PHASE ONE
UPPER GROUND
THE POWER STATION
tia
en
sid
Re trance
En
l
CIRCUS WEST
e-
nc
tra
En
02 l
IT entia
UN sid LIDAY
Re AL
H
UNIT 01
2884sf
ESTATE AGENCY
PAUL EDMONDS
UNIT 22 & UNIT 21
5439sf
RESI MARKETING
UNIT 23
Residential
Entrance- Scott
UNIT 20
1997sf
SUITE
COFFEE
WORKS
UNIT 04
Residential
EntranceFLADGATE
UNIT 19
Residential
EntranceAmbrose
UNIT 12
PHILIPPA 2704sf
CRADDOCK
UNIT
13
1368sf
UNIT 11
Residential
EntranceDAWSON
UNIT 10
6431sf
UNIT 08
Residential
EntrancePEARCE
UNIT 09
FLOUR POWER
CITY
UNIT 06
2623sf
VAGABOND
UNIT 03
1966sf
ALLENS
UNIT 05
1385sf
UNIT 24
5069sf
RESTAURANT
UNIT 26
3708sf
WRIGHT BROTHERS
UNIT 17 UNIT 17
436sf
440sf
UNIT
17
414sf
UNIT UNIT
18
18
344sf
UNIT 07
5678sf
ESTATE
MANAGEMENT
OFFICE
419sf
UNIT 25
3288sf
UNIT 14
10832sf
GYM
RESTAURANT
UNIT 16
16485sf
BPSDC OFFICE 1
UNIT 27
2890sf
PEDLER
Arch No.
744
UNIT 15
6111sf
BPSDC OFFICE 2
UNIT 28
Residential
EntranceBessborough
UNIT 29
4699sf
DARWIN & WALLACE
Arch No.
Arch No. 758
759
HARBOUR
HARBOUR CLUB
CLUB
Arch No.
757
DODDS
Arch No.
756
Arch No.
755
Arch No.
754
Arch No.
753
Arch No.
752
RAW
DUCK
Arch No.
751
Arch No.
750
WHIRLED
CINEMA
Arch No.
749
WHIRLED
CINEMA
Arch No.
748
Arch No.
747
Academy
Public
WCs
Arch No.
746
Arch No.
745
Staff
Welfare
Estate
Storage
Estate
Storage
KEY
Advanced Negotiations
HOTs Issued
In Solicitors Hands
Exchanged
Available
BPSDC Space
As at 22nd April 2016
UN IT
3675 26
sf
LUN
DA
AY /
BISTR
CH
&D
INNER
UNIT
4965 24
sf
LUN
CH /D
INNE
UNIT
2860 27
C A SU sf
A L/
ALL
UNI
Resi T 28
E ntr den tial
Bessbanceoro u
gh
CASU
A LL AL/
D
TAPA AY /
S
8
As at 30 March 2016
FLO
RIST
39
NI T
17
9sf
UNIT
UNIT
415s 17
U
1
f
N
LUN
7
IT U
CH
39
NIT
/L
1
2sf
8
IGH
T BIT
18
323s
ES/B
f
AKE
383s
RY /
f
COFF
EE
UNIT
3274 25
sf
UNIT
13
1300
sf
UN IT
2678 1 2
sf
WIN
E
MER
C
BA R H A NT
UNIT
Resid 11
Entr ential
a
DAW nceSO
N
UNIT
2884 10
sf
UNI
T
608 15
6
BPSD sf
C
BAT
TE
RSE
UN IT
3551 09
sf
A GEN
ERA
L ST
OFF
IC
E1
UNIT
Resi 08
Entr den tial
PEA anceRCE
ORE
BAK
ER
C HEE Y &
S EM
O
NG
UNIT
2565 06
sf
Village Hall
F&B
U
N
IT
10,3 15
2
BPSD 2sf
C O
FFIC
UNIT
4631 29
ALL sf
DAY
DININ
G
UNIT
10, 7 14
GYM 61sf
UN
IT
637 15
2
BPSD sf
C OF
FIC
E1
ER
U
13
Arch 749/750
Whirled Cinema
KEY
Arch 757
Dodds
UNI
T0
5983 7
sf
AGE ESTATE
MEN
T
OFF
ICE
MAN
E2
Arch No 759
.
Arch No. 75
6
A rch N o. 752
. 747
Arch No
746
745
Arch No.
Arch No.
. 744
Arch No
Arch 751
Pizza Pilgrims / Homeslice / Locappy
Arch 758/759
Harbour Club
Arch 754
Bleecker St / Tommis
Arch 752
Bao / Arlos
Arch 753
Raw Duck
Arch 755
Bone Daddies / Jose Pizarro
Very strong interest in leasing the Phase 2 office space with bids received
from several very large high quality TMT companies.
Entire Phase 2 office (470k sqft) is under board approved HoTs to a global
tech firm for their new European HQ - a pre-let of this magnitude adds
enormous value.
Phase 3 Hotel (165 room) leased under a 15 year management agreement with
ArtOtel (Park Plaza Group).
10
11
TfL continues to make good progress on site with construction works have been on site for c15 months
13
14
MARKET UPDATE
A range of macro factors currently impacting the central London residential market.
16
17
18
Central London retail market is buoyant with significant tenant and investor demand.
Forecast for continued rental growth over the next five years remain positive.
19
Office market continues to experience strong occupier demand and extremely low vacancy rates putting upward pressure on rents.
An increase in future supply will ease the vacant pressure whilst still promoting strong rental growth.
20
140
120
1,000
100
800
80
City
Prime
Appraisal
60
600
70
56
475
400
40
Appraisal
200
20
Office - Phase 2
200
The appraisal ERVs are priced conservatively in comparison to the market - strong upside potential
21
Appraisal
4.50%
4.75%
4.00%
Appraisal
City
Prime
4.00%
3.50%
4.50%
4.25%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
Office
-
Phase
2
22
Retail - Phase 2
Recent examples where clients have had to change contractors include One
Nine Elms (Dalian Wanda) and Ram Brewery (Green Land).
First and early signs appearing that the slowdown in London residential
market will lead to a downgrade in construction cost growth forecasts.
23
PHASE 2 UPDATE
25
RESIDENTIAL: 410,000 sq ft
OFFICE: 580,000 sq ft
EVENT SPACE: 105,000 sq ft
RETAIL AND F&B: 420,000 sq ft
CONTROL
31
No. Units
GDV
psf
Average
Capital Value
Sold
229
568,528,965
2,172
2,482,659
Reserved
18,270,847
2,897
6,090,282
Held
38,370,000
3,192
7,674,000
Off-Market
18
154,393,000
3,163
8,577,389
Total
255
779,562,812
2,370
3,057,109
32
The Power Station leasing campaign is focused on pre-letting the office space
in the first instance, coupled with building brand awareness of retail letting in
the medium term.
Interest driven by the iconic building, large floor plates, centrality / accessibility
and scheme amenity / mix of uses.
Over 50 notable viewings and +350 people visiting site from brands such as
ITV, Warner Brothers and the British Fashion Council.
AFL offers for all or part of the space received from Discovery Communications,
The Office Group, Expedia and Cezanne.
33
Paddington
90
Q2 2015
1-Google, 56.50 PSF (S2)and
2-UMG Oct 2015 (Pancras) at 75
40
value purposes)
Source:
CBRE
34
2019
2018
2017
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2016
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
10
1999
2012
20
Google, 55 PSF
Q1 2014 (estimate for land
30
2015
50
2014
60
FORECAST
2013
70
1993
80
1992
1991
King's Cross
seek to secure anchor letting for fashion hub space i.e Selfridges, Galeries
Lafayette as first key letting.
announce anchor letting as preface to further leasing.
focus on new market entrants, specifically; new leads, British Fashion brands.
35
We continue to strive to increase the value of the Power Station and studies are ongoing to;
1.
Increase the retail area internally (reduce mall widths and push out the shop fronts)
2.
Convert the Fashion Hub into an Anchor Store to drive retail rents
3.
Redesign the halo landscaping from water to grass and introduce retail pop-outs into the
revised Halo landscaping
4.
5.
Relocate the Turbine Hall A bridge to access the Control Room A from the Events space
6.
Detailing of the Food Market and introduction of the Chimney Lift shop
7.
The benefit of these opportunities is not factored into the appraisal and the anticipated value
uplift could be 50m before costs.
36
The below illustrates the potential to push out the shop fronts and increase area - Turbine Halls A and B current.
37
The below illustrates the potential to push out the shop fronts and increase area - Turbine Halls A and B enhanced.
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
The direct trade contracts will be novated to Skanska under the Main
Contract thereafter.
47
Key Terms!
Advanced
Payment
OH&P
OH & P
Anticipated Outcome
LADs
48
49
57.5m
Deferred Works
Increased boundary
Northern basement incl service road and north loading bays
ESCO box and infrastructure
Southern basement incl Phase 3 access
South east loading bay
East basement
Phase 1 temporary flu tower
Phase 1 halo road works
Phase 3 basement box, halo road and infrastructure works
Phase 4 access ramp piling
51
52
Skanska have proposed a contract programme on which they are willing to contract.
The programme completion represents a 12 month extension to the original estimates, overall PC in August 2020.
Therefore a 12 month shift to the facility expiry date is required (from Oct 19 to Oct 20).
The programme change requires a shift of the debt utilisation period of 12 months, not an extension - utilisation remains 5 years.
53
54
Cost estimates represent the appointments and procurement agreed to date and
the latest position being agreed with Skanska.
55
REVENUE
Total Residential Proceeds
Total Commercial Value
Total Revenue
775 m
1,409 m
2,184 m
DEVELOPMENT COSTS
Allocated Land Cost
Survey & Enabling Works
Statutory
Insurance
Construction Costs
Construction Contingency
Construction Inflation
Professional Fees
Sales & Marketing - Residential
Sales & Marketing - Commercial
Other Development Costs
Total Development Costs
91 m
5 m
6 m
35 m
1,275 m
134 m
66 m
89 m
23 m
94 m
56 m
1,872 m
128 m
-130 m
PERFORMANCE
Project Profit
Return on Equity (ROE)
Profit on Cost (PoC)
314 m
42%
17%
FUNDING
Peak Equity
Peak Debt
745m
750m
The appraisal residential revenue is underwritten by the strong sales performance to date (90% sold).
The average value of 2,370 psf reflects actual sales to date and a 5% buffer against unsold JLL price list.
Agents fees of 2% are applied to the unsold units, which compares against the average cost of sales to date of 1.4%.
The JLL Dec 15 valuation did not take into account any
leasing demand to date, excludes this upside.
56
The appraisal retail, F&B and leisure revenue reflect a conservative interpretation of the latest market rental and yield evidence, agent
advice and JLL Dec 15 valuation.
BPSDC
APPRAISAL
Area
R ent
ps ft
/p.a.
Annual
R ent
R ent
F ree
(months )
R etail
296,879
81.0
24.0m
F &B
73,533
51.1
L eis ure
80,720
O ther **
n/a
As s ets *
Net
Value
at
P C
DIFFERENCE
IN
NET
VALUE
AT
PC
20.0 m o
4.00%
502.5m
+37.6m
3.5m
16.0 m o
4.00%
79.5m
116.7
9.4m
2.0 m o
4.00%
n/a
9.2m
n/a
5.87%
NIY
Net
Value
at
P C
R ent
ps ft
/p.a.
Annual
R ent
R ent
F ree
(months )
20.0 m o
4.50%
464.9m
76.5
22.7m
3.8m
16.0 m o
4.50%
74.0m
46.3
105.2
8.5m
11.0 m o
6.29%
119.7m
n/a
13.8m
n/a
6.50%
194.90
As s ets * B P S D C
JLL
K nig ht
F rank
R etail
4.50%
4.00%
4.00%
+5.5m
F &B
4.50%
4.00%
4.00%
220.9m
+101.2m
L eis ure
6.29%
4.00%
5.50%
173.6m
(21.3)m
O ther **
6.50%
5.87%
5.50%
123.0m
57
The construction cost assumptions reflect the anticipated main contract price from Skanska and is also supported by a
G&T cost plan.
A contingency and inflation provision of 184m is budgeted to offset future risk. This allowance takes into account that
the risk on the construction costs has been significantly reduced during the Skanska main contract procurement process,
works completed to date and agreement of c260m of direct trade contracts.
The professional fee budget of 89m reflects the key consultant appointments - represents c7% of the construction cost.
The sales and marketing budget (excl incentive capex) reflects 2.5% of residential and commercial GDV.
58
Peak Debt
1,400m
1,200m
Peak Equity
1,000m
800m
600m
Deposit/stage
payment
funding
400m
200m
0m
Equity
Deposits
&
Stage
Payments
Resi
Proceeds
59
Debt
Revenue
for
Repayment
Retail
Proceeds
2,000m
1,800m
Acquisition Costs
1,600m
1,400m
Development Costs
1,200m
Costs to Date
1,000m
800m
600m
400m
200m
0m
Total Budget
Spend To Date
Costs to Complete
90.85 m
90.85 m
100%
5.21
m
5.66
m
34.77
m
1,391.39
m
75.46
m
23.09
m
93.71
m
55.79
m
2.59
m
0.25
m
3.52
m
61.36
m
35.35
m
12.09
m
1.69
m
15.19
m
50%
27%
2.62
m
5.41
m
31.25
m
1,330.04
m
40.11
m
11.01
m
92.02
m
40.59
m
1,685.08 m
132.04 m
8%
1,553.04 m
96.27 m
0%
96.27 m
127.78 m
17.08 m
13%
110.69 m
1,999.98 m
239.97 m
12%
1,760.00 m
Statutory
Professional
Fees
Sales
&
Marketing
Budget
Remaining
60
4%
10%
4%
47%
52%
2%
Total Budget
To Date
Budget
Remaining
163.55 m
12.56 m
32%
150.98 m
99.81 m
0%
99.81 m
Development
Equity
Land
Equity
717.31
m
27.26
m
136.56
m
27.26
m
13%
100%
580.75
m
-
Total Equity
744.56 m
163.81 m
17%
580.75 m
928.46
m
63.60
m
-
63.60
m
0%
100%
928.46
m
-
992.06 m
1,999.98 m
63.60 m
239.97 m
6%
12%
928.46 m
1,760.00 m
1,775.93
m
96.27
m
127.78
m
222.89
m
-
17.08
m
13%
13%
1,553.04
m
96.27
m
110.69
m
1,999.98 m
239.97 m
12%
1,760.00 m
Revenue Funding
Equity Requirements
Debt Requirements
Development
Debt
Land
Debt
Total Debt
Total Funding Sources
Cost Applications ('000)
61
0%
62
63
STATUS
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Achieved,
awaiting
sign
off
Procured,
awaiting
e xecution
&
sign
off
Procured,
awaiting
e xecution
&
sign
off
Procured,
awaiting
e xecution
&
sign
off
To
be
submitted
To
be
completed
To
be
completed
Facility Amendments
64
65
NEXT STEPS
67