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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 5 月 20 日
市场技术解读
预期将出现更多调整!
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于德国在隔夜出人意表地禁止一些投资工具的“裸卖空”(naked short-selling),这触发了排山倒海式的抛售活动,
从而导致全球股市于周三暴跌。
♦ 随着德国金融监管当局宣布暂时禁止该国 10 家最大的金融机构股票的卖空交易,以及特定的欧元区政府债务和信用违约掉
期交易(credit default swaps),印尼耶加达指数和印度 Sensex 指数便分别以 3.69% 和 2.77% 的跌势带头急挫。
♦ 与其为了防止金融市场出现动荡走势,这些措施却被市场视为欧洲金融市场的情况可能比预期来得更严重的讯号。除此外,
投资者也对可能会在本周进行表决的美国金融改革的进展感到紧张。
♦ 事实上,在欧洲股市于午市猛跌超过 2% 后,抛风也进一步恶化。
技术解读∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 经过昨日双位数的跌势后,富时综指的图表如今已转为更黯淡。
♦ 有鉴于此,在市场出现更多调整前,投资者应减仓离场。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
5月 5月 5月 5月 5月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 13 日 14 日 17 日 18 日 19 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,308.23 -21.94 -1.6
396 293 187 336 135
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,563.14 -149.16 -1.7
253 371 557 295 689
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,932.74 -52.45 -1.3
285 260 194 287 175
无交易 各大海外指数
443 453 439 460 379
道琼斯工商指数 10,444.37 -66.58 -0.6
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,298.37 -18.89 -0.8
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,115.05 -5.75 -0.5
(百万股) 906 682 633 691 782 伦敦金融时报指数 5,158.08 -149.26 -2.8
总成交值 恒生指数 19,578.98 -365.96 -1.8
(百万令吉) 1,040 1,084 1,009 1,144 1,403 雅加达综合指数 2,729.48 -104.71 -3.7
东京日经 225 指数 10,186.84 -55.80 -0.5
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,630.08 -13.16 -0.8
令吉兑美元 3.1950 3.1835 3.2265 3.2100 3.2510 上海综合指数 2,587.81 -6.97 -0.3
曼谷综合指数 765.54 5.43 0.7
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,774.54 -69.81 -2.5
台湾加权指数 7,559.16 -26.14 -0.3
印度 Sensex 指数 16,408.49 -467.27 -2.8
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 69.87 0.46 0.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,435.00 -10.00 -0.4
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 4 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
27 日-28 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 6 月 22 日-23 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 5 月 20 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 在母熊昨日全面掌控下,吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)在市场日益担心欧洲和美国将进一步收紧金融管制之际,加剧了利淡
动力,并暴跌将近 2%。
♦ 从 1,325 点高峰,母熊便一路压低市场,然后才在午盘面对更为强劲的抛压。这是因为海外股市,尤其是欧洲股市的行情全
线告急。
♦ 在 10 日和 40 日移动平均线于周二触发利淡交叉后,该指数于昨日划出一根巨大的利淡阴烛,从而确认其中期“卖出”讯
号。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 昨日的显著回档走势仍是预料中事,基于我们一直放眼它将会在近日内试探 1,300 点。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 5 月 1323.00 1325.00 1303.50 1304.00 -26.50 1304.00 11543 21684
10 年 6 月 1323.00 1325.00 1304.00 1304.50 -26.00 1304.50 1374 1208
10 年 9 月 1322.50 1325.00 1306.00 1306.00 -25.00 1305.50 234 260
10 年 12 月 1323.00 1326.00 1308.00 1308.00 -24.00 1307.50 94 190
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2010 年 5 月 20 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 在德国出人意表地禁止特定股项和债券的卖空活动后,这造成了金融市场不明朗,结果华尔街股市于周三一连第 2 日走低。
♦ 投资者也抛售工业股,主要担心近日创下 4 年新低的欧元可能会打击这些公司的盈利。表现最差的道指成份股,Caterpillar
下滑了 2.8%,至于波音(Boeing)和 3M 则分别滑跌 2.2% 和 1.1%。
♦ 不过,经过早盘的强力抛压后,市场便在趁低吸购活动下转头复苏,基于美国参议院准备表决是否要结束金融改革的辩论。
技术解读∶
♦ 这也使到它形成一根潜在的“锤头线”(hammer),显示该指数在经历了近日的跌势后,可能会在今日反弹。
♦ 可是,鉴于整体技术解读维持看淡,因此我们仍对任何的反弹感到质疑,而强力阻力水平料将维持在 21 日移动平均线(即
10,850 点)。
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2010 年 5 月 20 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ IOI 集团( IOICorp)(日线图) 图 8∶ IOI 集团(单日线图)
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
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