ES 85 2nd Exam (Take Home)

Instructions: Print this questionnaire and attach to your submitted answer sheets.
Use short bondpaper for your answers. Write clearly and neatly. No erasures
allowed. For calculations, box your final answer. Submit take home exam on
Saturday, before taking the final exam. Do not forget to write your name, section
and date of submission.
Health officials routinely check the sanitary condition of restaurants. Assume you
visit a popular tourist spot and read in the newspaper that in 3 out of every 7
restaurants checked, unsatisfactory health conditions were found. Assuming you are
planning to eat out 10 times while you are there on vacation, answer the following
questions:
1. How likely is it that you will eat at three restaurants with unsanitary
conditions?
2. How likely is it that you will eat at four or five restaurants with unsanitary
conditions?
3. Explain how you would compute the probability of eating in at least one
restaurant with unsanitary conditions. Could you use the complement to
solve this problem?
4. What is the most likely number to occur in this experiment?
5. How variable will the data be around the most likely number?
6. How do you know that this is a binomial distribution?
7. If it is a binomial distribution, does that mean that the likelihood of a success
is always 50% since there are only two possible outcomes?
During the latter days of World War II, the Germans developed flying rocket bombs.
These bombs were used to attack London. Allied military intelligence didnt know
whether these bombs were fired at random or had a sophisticated aiming device. To
determine the answer, they used the Poisson distribution. To assess the accuracy of
these bombs, London was divided into 576 square regions. Each region was
square kilometre in area. They then compared the number of actual hits with the
theoretical number of hits by using the Poisson distribution. If the values in both
distributions were close, then they would conclude that the rockets were fired at
random. The actual distribution is as follows:
Hits
Regions

0
229

1
211

2
93

3
35

4
7

5
1

8. Using the Poisson distribution, find the theoretical values for each number of
hits. In this case, the number of bombs was 535, and the number of regions
was 576. So,

535
=0.929
576

For 3 hits,

0.929

0.929
e x (2.7183)
P ( X )=
=
=0.0528
X!
3!
Hence, the number of hits is (0.0528)(576)= 30.4128
Complete the table for the other number of hits.
Hits
Regions

3
30.4

9. Write a brief statement comparing the two distribution.

10.Based on your answer to question 9, can you conclude that the rockets were
fired at random?
11.According to Mendels theory, if tall and colourful plants are crossed with
short and colorless plants, the corresponding probabilities are 9/16, 3/16,
3/16, and 1/16 for tall and colourful, tall and colorless, short and colourful and
short and colorless, respectively. If 8 plants are selected, find the probability
that 1 will be tall and colourful, 3 will be tall and colorless, 3 will be short and
colourful, and 1 will be short and colorless.
Assume you are thinking about starting a Mensa chapter in your hometown, which
has a population of about 10,000 people. You need to know how many people would
qualify for Mensa, which requires an IQ of at least 130. You realize that IQ is
normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. Complete
the following:
12.Find the approximate number of people in your hometown who are eligible for
Mensa.
13.Is it reasonable to continue your quest for a Mensa chapter in your
hometown?
14.How could you proceed to find out how many of the eligible people would
actually join the new chapter? Be specific about your methods of gathering
data.
15.What would be the minimum IQ score needed if you wanted to start an UltraMensa club that included only 1% of IQ scores?
16. A company generally purchases large lots of a
certain kind of electronic device. A method is used that rejects a lot if 2 or more
defective units are found in a random sample of 100 units.
(a) What is the probability of rejecting a lot that is 1% defective?
(b) What is the probability of accepting a lot that is 5% defective?
17. A production process produces electronic component parts. It is presumed that
the probability of a defective part is 0.01. During a test of this presumption, 500
parts are sampled randomly and 15 defectives
are observed.
(a) What is your response to the presumption that the process is 1% defective? Be
sure that a compute probability accompanies your comment.

(b) Under the presumption of a 1% defective process, what is the probability that
only 3 parts will be found defective?
(c) Do parts (a) and (b) again using the Poisson approximation.
18. A pair of dice is rolled 180 times. What is the probability that a total of 7 occurs
(a) at least 25 times?
(b) between 33 and 41 times inclusive?
(c) exactly 30 times?
19. In the November 1990 issue of Chemical Engineering Progress, a study
discussed the percent purity of oxygen from a certain supplier. Assume that the
mean was 99.61 with a standard deviation of 0.08. Assume that the distribution of
percent purity was approximately normal.
(a) What percentage of the purity values would you expect to be between 99.5 and
99.7?
(b) What purity value would you expect to exceed exactly 5% of the population?
20. A random committee of size 3 is selected from 4 doctors and 2 nurses. Write a
formula for the probabilitydistribution of the random variable X representing the
number of doctors on the committee. Find P(2 X 3).