8 (Probability)

jpliu@ntu.edu.tw

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33

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5/27
6/23

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44

?
Probability, Likelihood, Chance, Possibility,
Opportunity

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55

Google
(opportunity)919,000,000

(possibility 305,000,000

(Probability 110,000,000

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-?

0.5

0.2

66

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77

- ?
0.7

(event)

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-
-p=0.88100
88
(event)

?
(?)

88

Chapter 8
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1.
Is he the father
Is someone else the father
P(| he is) vs. P(| he is not)
PI = paternity index
= P(| he is) / P(| he is not)
CPI=combined PI ()
2.

99

15cm DNADNA tests on six-inch 'space

alien' found in Chile prove it was human, scientists say
(video)
(http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/04/24/chilie-alien-dna/)
Chapter 8
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20
?
20HIV
10
500
20?

10

Chapter 8
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10

11

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Jen-pei Liu, PhD

()

(pattern)

12

1:?10000
pattern
1/6

6?
Chapter 8
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12

13

1.

30030
9/10

2.

3.

8/10

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Jen-pei Liu, PhD

(Frequentist)
-

14

2016/4/17


2007/11/17 11:53:09
(

??
BMI
BMI

1007

15

2016/4/17

0.5

:=51:49

1070.7

30/300=1/10

16

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P(12 Facebook)

P(11)

P()

,,,
,
17

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-,,
-

18

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 ()

19

,,

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:
Does God play dice?

20

(deterministic):,Laplace
,
,
:,
,
!
,

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21

??

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Jen-pei Liu, PhD

(1) -

=?
,
,
=?

AB,A!
Super!

22

Chapter 8
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22

(2) -

23

{}{}?
,equally probable,
unusual/unlikely (50100)

{}{}? No!

5?{}{
}?

1/ 2

Chapter 8
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23

(3) -

24

?
Vinnie Johnson (Detroit Pistons)

Johnson earned the nickname "the Microwave" from Boston

Celtics guard Danny Ainge for his ability to score many points in a
short period of time (i.e., Johnson could heat up the offense of the
team in short order).

On June 19, 1990, Vinnie made a 14-foot shot with just seventenths of a second (0.07) left on the clock, beating the Portland Trail
Blazers 92-90 in Game 5 of the finals, and giving Detroit the
championship. The basket earned Johnson a new nickname: 007.
(WIKIPEDIA)
Chapter 8
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24

(4) -

,
(independent or not);

pattern;0/1,
Pr(1)
25

Chapter 8
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25

(5)

87%
875
1. 87%
2. 87%
3. 0

26

Chapter 8
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26

(5)

27

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(5)

Jon Voight

28

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(measure of relative frequency)

Critics:
(P())

29

Critics:
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(measure of belief)

(P(), P())

30

Critics: !?

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31

Amy: 0.9; Beth: 0.4; Cindy: 0.5;

Al:; Ben:; Charlie:; Dave:;

?
:>0.9; :=0.5;

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32

(Bayesian statistics)

Proposed early in 1700+

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33

:
Pr()=?,
,, Pr(|)=?,>
,, Pr(|)=?,<
My personal probability may be:
Pr()=1/10
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34

Pr()=1/6
,,
Pr(|)=1/3
Pr(|)=0
Pr(|)>1/2
Pr(|)<1/2
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-
P(T | D) P( D)
P( D | T )
P(T )
P(T | D) P( D)

P(T | D) P( D) P(T | D ) P( D )
sensitivity prevalence

sens. prev. (1 specificity ) (1 prev.)

35

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-
Sensitivity,

36

P(T+|Disease)

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-
Specificity,

37

P(T-|not Disease)

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-
(P.236,Basic & Clinical Biostatistics, Beth DawsonSaunders and Robert G. Trapp, 2nd edition 1993.)

(Postive Predictive Value)

20%
34%
86%

38

() ()
() () (1-)(1-)

2016/4/17

( 0 . 34 )( 0 . 2 )
0 . 378
( 0 . 2 )( 0 . 34 ) (1 0 . 86 )(1 0 . 2 )

-
http://blog.yam.com/petscan/article/7416625

39

(NSCLC; non-small cell lung cancer)

CT Scan

67-75%66-73%FDG
91-96%78.86%

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-
Example a (Feinstein, 2002)

40

New Maker
Test Result

Diseased
Cases

Non-diseased
Control

Total

Positive
Negative

46
4

2
48

48
52

Total

50

50

100

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-
Data from Example a (Feinstein, 2002)
= = 100% x 46/50 = 92.0%
= 100% x 48/50 = 96.0%
= 100% x 50/100 = 50.0%
= 100% x 46/48 = 95.8%

41

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-
Example b (Feinstein,2002)

42

New Maker
Test Result

Diseased
Cases

Positive
Negative
Total

46
4
50

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Nondiseased
Control
38
912
950

Total
84
916
1000

Jen-pei Liu, PhD

-
Data from Example b (Feinstein, 2002)

43

=100% x 46/50 = 92.0%

=100% x 312/950 = 96.0%

=100% x 50/1000 = 5.0%

=100% x 46/84 = 54.8%

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Jen-pei Liu, PhD

Error rates associated with screening test (Fleiss, 1981)

44

Prevalence

False Positive Rate

1/million
1/100,000
1/10,000
1/1000
1/500
1/200
1/100

.9999
.9991
.9906
.913
.840
.677
.510
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False Negative Rate

0
0
.00001
.00005
.00010
.00025
.00051

45

Odds (): p/(1-p)

P()/P()=5
odds5
P()=5/(1+5)

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999
P()/P()=999,
P()=0.001

46

What is the odds of that?

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Jen-pei Liu, PhD

Project Gulf Impact BP spraying under cover of night

(http://theintelhub.com/2010/07/09/project-gulf-impact-bp-sprayingunder-cover-of-night-grand-isle/)

47

Chapter 17
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47

More about odds

Handicapped athlete defies the odds
Cody Rye was told he would never walk again; now
he's playing football.
(By Emily Pace, Wednesday, October 08, 2008 at
4:38 p.m.)
(http://www.wluctv6.com/news/story.aspx?id=204017)

Work/Life Balance: Success Against the Odds: Is

This You?

48

SCORE womens success blog,

(http://womensblog.score.org/2008/09/17/worklife-balancesuccess-against-the-odds-is-this-you/)
Chapter 8
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48

49

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50

AD BC

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51

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52

1.05

1.05

1.05 1

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1.83

1.83

53

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Karl Pearson
(1857~1936)

54

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1.

2.

3.

55

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1.

2.
(Karl Marx)
CarlKarl
3.

4.Inner Temple

56

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1.

2.1880

3.

57

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1.

2.

3.

58

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