Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Engineering Economics
Based on
White, J.A (1990) Engineering Economics,
Chapter 15 in Eshbach's Handbook of
Engineering Fundamentals (4th Edition), John
Wiley & Sons
(available on-line through the UW Libraries)
Joyce Cooper
Design for Environment Lab
University of Washington
cooperjs@u.washington.edu
UWME DFE Lab:
http://faculty.washington.edu/cooperjs/
ME395: Introduction to Mechanical Design
Plan,
decompose,
& benchmark
Formulate &
analyze
Communicate
& justify
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Engineering economics
In essence, design decisions are economic decisions.
Very few situations exist in which there are not alternative materials,
processes, and physical designs available to the engineer; and each
alternative has different costs associated with it.
The economicsSolid
of engineering
decisions
must be viewed from
Fuels Processing
Technologies
a broad perspective.
The life-cycle cost of a product is the total cost of design, production,
maintenance, subsequent replacements over the life of the product
and retirement of the product.
Design choices dictate a broad set of costs (e.g., screws vs. snap fits
impact assembly, maintenance, and recycling costs).
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Engineering economics
Typical economic decisions confronting engineers are new
product or process introduction, lease versus buy, make
versus buy, replacement of machinery and equipment,
process modification, and capacity expansion.
Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
In performing economic comparisons of engineering
alternatives, it is recommended that a cash flow approach be
taken.
Here, an end-of-period cash flow convention is used. Specifically,
when the period is equal to a year, any receipts or disbursements
occurring during a year will be shown as occurring at the end of the
year and the present is considered to be the end of year zero.
We use this convention in making cash flow diagrams.
ME395: Introduction to Mechanical Design
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Receipts (income)
time
t=0
t=1
t=n
Uniform gradient cash flow- starts with a cash flow (denoted as G) at t=2
and increases by G each year through t=n, at which time the cash flow is
(n-1)G
(n-1)G
e.g., Increasing
maintenance costs with
aging equipment
3G
G
t=2
2G
t=n
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Revenue
$5,000
$5,000
$5,000
Simplified version
$5,000 $5,000
time
1
$1,000
$20,000
2
$1,000
3
$1,000
$1,000 $1,000
Maintenance cost
Purchase cost
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Also,
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
For example,
If I borrow $1,000 for 6 years at a simple interest rate of 10%, at the end
of the 6 years I owe:
Amount owed =P(1+ni)=$1,000[1+6(0.1)]=$1,600
Am o un t O w e d
$2,000
Compound Interest
$1,500
Simple Interest
$1,000
(3)=(1)+(2)
amount
ow ed at the
end of the
period
$1,000
$100
$1,100
=1,000(1+.1)
$1,100
$100
$1,200
=1,000(1+.2)
$1,200
$100
$1,300
=1,000(1+.3)
$1,300
$100
$1,400
=1,000(1+.4)
$1,400
$100
$1,500
=1,000(1+.5)
$1,500
$100
$1,600
=1,000(1+.6)
Compound Interest
$500
$0
0
period
(4) amount
ow ed at the
beginning of
the period
(5)=(4)x10
% interest
amount f or
period
(6)=(4)+(5)
amount ow ed
at the end of
the period
$1,000
$100
$1,100
=1,000(1.1)
$1,100
$110
$1,210
=1,000(1.1)^2
$1,210
$121
$1,331
=1,000(1.1)^3
$1,331
$133
$1,464
=1,000(1.1)^4
$1,464
$146
$1,611
=1,000(1.1)^5
$1,611
$161
$1,772
=1,000(1.1)^6
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
where:
F = the future value or future worth
P= principle or present worth
i= annual interest rate
n= number of years
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Converts
P to F
Symbol
(F/P, i%, n)
Formula
F to P
(P/F, i%, n)
P = F (1 + i) n
F to A
(A/F, i%, n)
A= F
i
(1 + i) n 1
Capital recovery
P to A
(A/P, i%, n)
A= P
i( 1 + i )n
( 1 + i )n 1
A to F
(F/A, i%, n)
(1 + i) n 1
F=A
i
A to P
(P/A, i%, n)
( 1 + i )n 1
P= A
i( 1 + i )n
G to P
(P/G, i%, n)
G to F
(F/G, i%, n)
( 1 + i )n 1
n
P = G 2
n
i( 1 + i )n
i (1+ i )
(1 + i) n 1 n
F = G
2
i
i
G to A
(A/G, i%, n)
F = P(1 + i)n
n
A = G
n
i ( 1 + i ) 1
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
From http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/current
$17.9 trillion
0.06(1 + 0.06) 20
A = $17.9 trillion
(1 + 0.06) 20 1
time
1
A
2
A
20
A
= ($17.9 trillion)*0.0872
= $1.56 trillion per year (hmm)
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
The present
worth equivalent
is more
commonly called
the net present
value (NPV).
From FE Review Manual: Rapid Preparation for the Fundamentals of
Estimation
of e.g., the
present (or Design
future) worth allows comparison
of cash
diagrams
ME395:
Introduction
to Mechanical
Engineering
Examflow
By Michael
R. Lindeburg
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Net alwaysSolid
means
that something
has been
subtracted, so it is puzzling that
Fuels
Processing
Technologies
spreadsheets have done this (there are actually a number of crazy errors that have
been propagated over the years to maintain compatibility).
In any case, to calculate the real NPV in Excel, use
the NPV function, but leave out the initial cost.
Then, outside of the NPV function, subtract the
initial cost.
See
http://www.tvmcalcs.com/blog/comments/the_npv_function_do
esnt_calculate_net_present_value
Estimation
of NPV also
allows comparison of cash flow diagrams
ME395: Introduction
to Mechanical
Design
New slide
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
New slide
If one cash flow has a higher NPV, or future worth, or uniform series
value as compared to another, the cash flows are not equivalent.
Option 1: the same mechanical device costing $20,000 when purchased, with
maintenance at $1,000 per year and revenues at $5,000 each year, and a salvage value
expected to be $7,000.
Option 2: this do nothing option uses an existing device with maintenance at $2,000
per year and revenues at $4,000 each year, and the salvage value is expected to be
negligible.
At a 6% interest rate, the 2
cash flows are not equivalent:
using the existing device is
much better.
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Simplified version
-$13,000
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Converts
P to F
F to P
Symbol
(F/P, i%, n)
Formula
F to A
Capital recovery
P to A
(A/P, i%, n)
A to F
(F/A, i%, n)
(1 + i) n 1
F=A
i
A to P
(P/A, i%, n)
P= A
G to P
(P/G, i%, n)
G to F
(F/G, i%, n)
( 1 + i )n 1
n
P = G 2
n
i
(
1
+
i
)
i
(
1
+
i )n
(1 + i) n 1 n
F = G
i2
i
G to A
(A/G, i%, n)
A= P
i( 1 + i )n
( 1 + i )n 1
( 1 + i )n 1
i( 1 + i )n
n
A = G
n
i ( 1 + i ) 1
Still for the device costing $20,000 when purchased, with maintenance at $1000 per year and
revenues at $5,000 each year, and a salvage value expected to be $7,000 over a 5 year time
horizon and
assuming an MARR of 20%.
ME395: Introduction to Mechanical
Design
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Comparing alternatives
To facilitate the comparison of engineering alternatives, the
following systematic approach is recommended:
STEP 1. Define the set of feasible alternatives to be compared.
Experience suggests that a planning horizon of <5 years will support only small
incremental changes. Thus, depending on objectives, a planning horizon from 5 to
10 years is recommended.
It is important to distinguish between the length of the planning horizon, the
working life of equipment, and the depreciable life of equipment.
Working life = the period the equipment is capable of being used, e.g., 20 yrs
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Comparing alternatives
STEP 3. Develop the cash flow profiles for each alternative.
If the hurdle rate is set too high (e.g., at 20% in the mechanical device
example).the project looks worse than it might actually end up being
(there are few investments that yield double digit returns)
MARR = 20%
present worth
present
equivalent (=cash
worth factor flow x present worth
end of
year=n
cash flow
(1+0.2) -5
factor)
0
-$20,000
1
-$20,000
1
$4,000
0.8333
$3,333
2
$4,000
0.6944
$2,778
3
$4,000
0.5787
$2,315
4
$4,000
0.4823
$1,929
5
$11,000
0.4019
$4,421
Sum = the present worth equivalent
-$5,224
Future worth = present worth equivalent x (1+0.2) 5 =
MARR = 6%
-$13,000
present worth
present
equivalent (=cash
worth factor flow x present worth
end of
year=n
cash flow
(1+0.06) -5
factor)
0
-$20,000
1
-$20,000
1
$4,000
0.9434
$3,774
2
$4,000
0.8900
$3,560
3
$4,000
0.8396
$3,358
4
$4,000
0.7921
$3,168
5
$11,000
0.7473
$8,220
Sum = the present worth equivalent
$2,080
Future worth = present worth equivalent x (1+0.06) 5 =
$2,784
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Comparing alternatives
STEP 5. Compare the alternatives (provide a level playing field) using 3
methods:
The present worth (PW) or the annual worth (AW)
Estimate the present worth for all alternatives OR estimate the annual
worth for all
alternatives,
and compare
them.
Solid
Fuels Processing
Technologies
Compare the MARR with the IRR resulting from the incremental
investments among alternatives. Incremental investments are justified if
the incremental IRR is greater than the MARR; otherwise, they are not.
PW, AW, and IRR are equivalent methods. Thus, the same
recommendation results using present worth, annual worth, or internal
rate of return.
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
-$20,000
$3,333
$2,778
$2,315
$1,929
$4,421
-$5,224
present
worth factor
end of
year=n
cash flow
(1+0.2) -5
0
$0
1
1
$2,000
0.8333
2
$2,000
0.6944
3
$2,000
0.5787
4
$2,000
0.4823
5
$2,000
0.4019
Sum = the present worth equivalent
present worth
equivalent (=cash
flow x present worth
factor)
$0
$1,667
$1,389
$1,157
$965
$804
$5,981
Comparing alternatives:
compare the incremental IRR to the MARR
Assuming a MARR of 20% over a 5 year time horizon:
Option 1: the same mechanical device costing $20,000 when purchased, with
maintenance at $1,000 per year and revenues at $5,000 each year, and a salvage value
expected to be $7,000.
Option 2: this do nothing option uses an existing device with maintenance at $2,000
per year and revenues at $4,000 each year, and the salvage value is expected to be
negligible.
. IRR method, you are looking for the value of i for which the net present value of
For the
the incremental cash flow (cash flow for option 1 cash flow for option 2) is zero.
Compare the incremental IRR to the MARR.
IRR method
You can
Use the IRR function in excel, here it would
be =IRR(D2:D7)
Or solve for i for a zero present value of the
incremental cash flow as:
-$20,000+$2,000(A|P,i%,5)+$4,000(F|P,i%,5) = 0
IRR <MARR, meaning the investment in option 1 is not warranted
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Depreciation methods
Prior to the early 1980s, a number of different depreciation
methods were used in the US to determine taxable income.
Commonly use methods were:
straight-line depreciation
assumes a constant depreciation value
declining balance
where
D = depreciation charge for year
C = the purchase price and
Technologies
Sn = the expected salvage value
C Sn
D=
n
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Depreciation methods
After 1981, the accelerated cost recovery system (ACRS) was
established.
The Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS,
pronounced as makers) is the current tax depreciation system
in the US: Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
Depreciation charges represent various combinations of declining
balance, double declining balance, and straight-line depreciation charge
Under MACRS depreciation, an asset is classified as either a 3-year, 5-year,
7-year, 10-year, 15-year, or 20-year asset or as real property. The
classification is based on the assets depreciation range (ADR), although
there are numerous exceptions.
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
The 3-year class (ADR midpoint of <=4 years) such as special tools and devices used in the
manufacture of rubber products, special handling devices such as returnable pallets, and
over-the-road tractors.
The 5-year class (ADR midpoint of 4-10 years) such as computers and peripherals,
automobiles, busses, general carpets, and electronic components.
The 7-year class (ADR midpoint of 10-16 years) such as office furniture, railroad cars and
Fuelsequipment
Processing
locomotives, and mostSolid
production
usedTechnologies
to manufacture wood products, sporting
goods, jewelry, musical instruments, films, and tapes, among others.
The 10-year class (ADR midpoint of 16-20 years) such as assets used to manufacture tobacco
and certain food products, as well as that used in petroleum refining.
The 15-year class (ADR midpoint of 20-25 years) such as telephone distribution equipment,
sewage treatment plants, and assets used to produce electricity for sale.
The 20-year class (ADR midpoint of 25+ years real property) such as sewer pipe, farm
buildings, railroad steam or electric generating equipment, and telephone distribution plants.
The real property class is divided into residential and nonresidential; residential property is
recovered over 27.5 years and nonresidential property is recovered over 31.5 years.
MACRS Depreciation
The MACRS deduction is calculated by applying appropriate
percentages to the cost basis for a specified recovery property class
and year;
The cost basis is usually the initial investment in the property.
Depending on the recovery property class, the percentage used will depend on the
month of the year in which the property was placed in service. For our purposes, it is
assumed that the property is placed in service at the beginning of the tax year and
disposed of at the end of the tax year.
Bt = P-(D1 + D2 + + Dt) or
Bt = P[1-(d1 + d2 + + dt)]
where
P = cost basis for the property
Dt = dtP = depreciation charge for year t, t = 1,. . . , n
dt = depreciation percentage allowed for year t=1 to n for the specific recovery property class
as TABULATED for MACRS IN TABLE 15.5 of the reading, as compiled from THE TAX CODE
n = allowable write-off or depreciation period
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MACRS percentages
dt = depreciation percentage allowed for year t=1 to n for the specific recovery property
class as TABULATED IN TABLE 15.5 of the reading, as compiled from THE TAX CODE
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
MACRS Depreciation
Suppose the earlier investment of $20,000 in the mechanical
device is for a 3-year recovery property.
The MACRS percentages are obtained from the table for a 4year period. The annual depreciation charges and book values
Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
are:
MACRS percentages
Dt = dtP
For P=$20,000
D1 = $20,000(0.3333) =
D2 = $20,000(0.4444) =
D3 = $20,000(0.1482) =
D4 = $20,000(0.0741) =
$6,666
$8,888
$2,964
$1,482
B1 = $20,000 - $6,666 =
B2 = $13,334 - $8,888 =
B3 = $4,446 - $2,964 =
B4 = $1,482 - $1,482 =
$13,334
$4,446
$1,482
$0
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Taxes
Types
Property taxes- based on the value of the property owned and do not
vary with profits,
Sales taxes- imposed on the sale of products, usually paid by the
purchaser
Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
Excise taxes- imposed on the manufacture of certain products like
tobacco and alcohol, these are usually passed on to the consumer
Income taxes- imposed on corporate profits or personal income, gains
resulting from the sale of capital property are subject
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Tax Example
A corporation that pays 53% of its profits in income taxes. It invests
$10,000 in an asset that will produce $3,000 annual revenue for eight
years. If the annual expenses are $700, the salvage value at the end
of 8 years is $500, and an 9% interest is used, what is the after-tax
present worth disregarding
Solid Fuels depreciation?
Processing Technologies
P = -$10,000 + ($3000)(P|A,9%,8)(1-.053) ($700)(P|A,9%,8)(1-.053) + ($500)(P|F,9%,8)
= -$10,000 + ($3000)(5.5358)(1-.053) ($700)(5.5358)(1-.053) + ($500)(0.5019)
= -$3,766
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Income taxes
What does depreciation do to income taxes?
It reduces the after tax cash flows:
ATCF
=
BTCF
(1-r
)-r
D
t
t
t
t
Solid Fuels Processing Technologiest
where
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Inflation
Inflation is a measure of the buying power of
money.
When sharp increases occur in the amount of
currency in circulation, sudden decreases can
occur in the purchasing power of money due to
Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
rising prices.
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Inflation
Economic studies must be performed in terms of constantvalue dollars.
There are several methods to accomplish this when inflation is
present. One is to replace the effective annual interest rate i
Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
with a value adjusted for inflation. The adjusted value is
called the combined discount rate:
icombined = i + j + ij
where j is the inflation rate per year and is used to compute the
present worth values.
We will use this and the CPI to estimate project costs, as follows next class.
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Engineering economics
Concepts
The time value of money
Cash flows
Solid Fuels Processing Technologies
Discount factors
Comparing alternatives
Depreciation, taxes, and inflation
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Questions?