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About Manpower 19
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Hiring activity is expected to slow across seven of the weakest job outlook in more than a decade. These
the 10 industry sectors, continuing the steady decline sectors include Construction, Wholesale & Retail
that has been evident across the important Trade, Education, Services and Public Administration.
Manufacturing, Services and Wholesale & Retail Mining is the only sector that expects an increase in
Trade sectors since the beginning of the year. The hiring activity over both last quarter and a year ago
Education and Public Administration sectors are at this time. The employment forecast for both the
anticipating job cuts in the third quarter, as the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate and
downward trend from the past several quarters Transportation & Public Utilities sectors is expected
continues to gain momentum for these sectors. to be stable for the coming quarter, with increases in
The softness in third quarter hiring expectations is hiring activity at identical levels to the second quarter
especially apparent in the seasonally adjusted data, survey results.
as half of the industry sectors are expected to have
At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/– 0.8%.
Hiring expectations across all four regions of the U.S. quarter survey and decidedly more sluggish than last
are relatively consistent with the overall national year’s third quarter prospects.
Employment Outlook for the third quarter. Although all Employers in the South reported slightly more
of the regions are reporting job growth expectations positive hiring prospects than the other regions, and
in the July – September period, the hiring pace is the Northeast is expected to lag the rest of the
expected to be slower than it was in the second country for the third consecutive quarter.
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Regional Comparisons
Midwest
Twenty-one percent of employers in the Midwest second quarter of this year. Conversely, considerable
forecast an increase in hiring, while 9% expect a job cutbacks are expected in the Education and
decrease, which creates a Net Employment Outlook Public Administration sectors in the Midwest, with
of 12%. When the seasonal variations are removed substantial reductions in hiring activity compared to
from the data, third quarter employment opportunities the second quarter of 2003 and the third quarter of
in the Midwest are expected to decline moderately last year.
from last quarter and last year at this time. Hiring activity is expected to move at a slower pace
In spite of overall reduced hiring activity in the region, than last quarter as well as the third quarter of 2002
the bright spots include the Finance, Insurance & across the Manufacturing, Services, Wholesale &
Real Estate and Transportation & Public Utilities Retail Trade and Construction sectors in the Midwest
sectors, which are both expected to improve from the in the coming quarter.
The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.
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Northeast
In the Northeast, 19% of the employers surveyed All of the 10 industry sectors in the Northeast are
estimate an increase in hiring, while 10% predict a headed for weaker job prospects in the third quarter.
decrease, which leads to a Net Employment Outlook The Construction, Education, Mining and Services
of 9%. When the data is seasonally adjusted, limited sectors are considerably less optimistic than they
job growth is forecast in the Northeast. The region were in the second quarter survey. Employers in the
anticipates the weakest job market in the United Public Administration, Education and Mining sectors
States for the third consecutive quarter and reports anticipate job cuts in the third quarter, with educators
a considerable decline in hiring intentions from a facing the most negative job outlook since 1992.
year ago.
The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.
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South
Of the employers surveyed in the South, 20% expect Job prospects appear best in the Mining sector
an increase in employment in the third quarter, and 8% where employers are more upbeat than they have
anticipate a decrease, which equals a Net Employment been in seven quarters. Transportation & Utilities
Outlook of 12%. According to the seasonally employers estimate a hiring pace identical to last
adjusted survey results, employment prospects in the quarter, while Manufacturing, Education and Public
South are the most promising of any U.S. region and Administration employers predict a more
have been for the previous four quarters as well. conservative job pattern. Other sectors in the South
Hiring intentions in the South are, however, expect steady hiring in the coming three months,
moderately lower than they were in both the second although projections were more optimistic last
quarter of this year and in the third quarter of 2002. quarter and a year ago.
The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
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West
Employers surveyed in the West report a 22% for third quarter than they have been in a year or more.
increase in hiring intentions, while 11% estimate a The Construction sector results for the West are the
decrease, producing a Net Employment Outlook of weakest since 1992. Consistent with the Northeast
11%. When seasonal variations are removed from the and Midwest regions, job cutbacks are estimated in
data, the survey results show that job growth is the Public Administration and Education sectors.
expected to slow considerably in the West. The only bright spots in the Western Employment
The steepest decline in hiring activity is expected to Outlook are in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
occur in the Construction, Services, Wholesale & Retail sector, which is holding steady with the second
Trade and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing sectors quarter hiring outlook, and the Mining sector, which is
in this region, as employers in these sectors are anticipating a slight increase in hiring activity for third
significantly more pessimistic about hiring prospects quarter but has been very volatile in recent history.
The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
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Sector Comparisons
In the third quarter of 2003, employers in the optimistic sectors for the quarter, this is indicative of
Education and Public Administration sectors are the normal seasonal trends. A review of the historical
decidedly more pessimistic than in other areas, with and seasonally adjusted data for these sectors
job losses on the horizon. While Construction and reveals the real story for the upcoming quarter.
Wholesale & Retail Trade appear to be the most
Construction 21
6
Education -8
-4
12
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
11
9
Manufacturing – Durables
6
10
Manufacturing – Non-Durables
7
15
Mining 11
1
Public Administration -3
11
Services 7
6
Transportation & Public Utilities 5
18
Wholesale & Retail Trade 10
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Original Adjusted
8
Construction
The Construction sector is normally going strong in a year ago. This marks the weakest Employment
the third quarter, while the weather is still amenable in Outlook for Construction since 1992. Hiring activity is
the northern states, but this year will be an exception. expected to be the strongest in the South and
Employers are anticipating steep declines in hiring weakest in the West.
activity compared with both the second quarter and
Education
The new school year is likely to begin with fewer since 1991 and the biggest dip in third quarter
employees in the Education sector. Employers within employment prospects in 27 years of historical data.
this sector are anticipating a Net reduction in their Hiring levels will be strongest in the South and
staffing levels in the third quarter. The seasonally weakest in the Midwest, where the survey results
adjusted data reveals the most pessimistic forecast show a decrease of –17%.
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Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
When the seasonal variations are removed from the with employers reporting the same outlook as they
data, the strongest job activity of all the sectors is did three months ago. The forecast was slightly more
expected in Finance, Insurance & Real Estate, a optimistic a year ago at this time. Job prospects are
distinction this sector shares with Mining. Despite expected to be strongest in the Midwest and weakest
being the most optimistic sector, hiring expectations in the Northeast.
for Finance, Insurance & Real Estate have plateaued,
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Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods
Employers in the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing adjustments to the data reveal the darkest third
sector foresee moderate job growth from July to quarter employment forecast in 21 years. The West
September, although the prospects are weaker than will take the lead in hiring activity for the quarter, as
both a quarter ago and a year ago. Seasonal the employment prospects fade in the Northeast.
Mining
Mining is the only sector to report an increase in 2001. The seasonally adjusted data shows that
hiring intentions over both the second quarter of this Mining has the strongest job prospects of any sector,
year and the third quarter of 2002. In fact, the Mining a distinction it shares with Finance, Insurance & Real
industry’s job outlook for the coming quarter is the Estate. By a wide margin, the strongest outlook is in
most optimistic it has been since the final period of the West and the weakest is in the Northeast.
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Public Administration
Government jobs are headed for the chopping block expectations within this sector have gradually
for the first time since 1991, according to the dwindled for nearly two years. While the Midwest
seasonally adjusted data for the third quarter. Aside appears set to cut the most jobs, there will still be a
from a one-quarter plateau at the end of 2002, hiring few new job opportunities in the South.
Services
Only twice in 27 years of seasonally adjusted In spite of this dire comparison, employers in the
historical data have job prospects for the Services Services sector still expect to hire at a modest pace
sector sunk as low as they have for the coming for the third quarter, with the strongest job prospects
quarter. The previous occasion was more than a in the South.
dozen years ago in the second quarter of 1991.
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Transportation & Public Utilities
The third quarter Net Employment Outlook for the are eliminated, the forecast is identical to last quarter.
Transportation & Public Utilities sector shows a slight A mild hiring pace is predicted from July to
upturn in job opportunities – the first anticipated September, with the South expecting a little more
increase in five quarters. When seasonal variations activity than other regions.
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The Americas Employment Outlook
Over 20,000 interviews have been conducted across The United States, Canada and Mexico to measure
anticipated employment trends between July and September 2003.
International Comparisons
The three nations in the Americas are not currently expecting a decrease, the Net Employment Outlook
moving in unison. The highest Net Employment is +30%. Lower Net increases were expected in
increase was recorded in Canada. With more than Mexico and the United States, with Net Employment
one-third of organizations anticipating an increase in Outlooks of +11% recorded in both nations.
staffing levels, and only around one-in-twenty
To provide greater perspective on the Net optimistic and pessimistic Employment Outlooks
Employment trends over time, we compare the over the five quarters. The survey results from the
results across all three countries since Mexico United States and Mexico have been closely
began its survey in 2002. As can be seen from these aligned, with the largest variations between the two
data, the Canadian survey results have varied much countries occurring in the third quarter of 2002 and
more dramatically than the United States and in the first quarter of 2003.
Mexico, with a span of 31 percent between the most
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Sector Comparisons
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net for both Industry and Services.
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
The greatest differences are found between the
Industry and Services1. Comparing expected
nations. Across both categories, the Outlook in
changes in employment between the two categories
Canada was noticeably more optimistic than both
reveals no significant differences; across each
the USA and Mexico.
nation, the expected increases are virtually the same
Industry
Canada 27
Mexico 12
United States 11
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Services
Canada 31
Mexico 11
United States 11
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.
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Global Employment Outlook
Over 30,000 interviews have been conducted across 18 countries to measure anticipated employment trends
between July and September 2003.
The Americas
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Canada 36 6 56 2 +30
Mexico 24 13 63 0 +11
United States 20 9 65 6 +11
Asia Pacific
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Australia 24 11 65 0 +13
Hong Kong 12 17 68 3 -5
Japan 7 11 71 11 -4
Singapore 8 8 78 6 0
Europe
Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook
% % % % %
Austria 13 13 73 1 0
Belgium 5 7 86 2 -2
France 10 7 80 3 +3
Germany 9 19 72 0 -10
Ireland 23 11 66 0 +12
Italy 18 10 72 0 +8
Netherlands 8 3 87 2 +5
Norway 18 11 70 1 +7
Spain 22 9 68 1 +13
Sweden 14 10 75 1 +4
UK 21 8 71 0 +13
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Sector Comparisons
Below, we compare the Net Employment Outlook for significantly better Employment Outlook than the
each country across two main categories: Industry Industry category; and in Sweden, Austria and the
and Services . For most countries, little variation
1
UK where, conversely, employers in the Industry
existed between the two categories in each country. category reported a much more positive outlook than
The only exceptions are in Hong Kong and Spain, in the Services category.
where the Services category is expected to have a
Industry Services
Canada 27 Canada 31
Mexico 12 Mexico 11
United States 11 United States 11
Australia 14 Australia 12
Hong Kong -12 Hong Kong -3
Japan -4 Japan -4
Singapore 0 Singapore 0
Austria 6 Austria -4
Belgium 1 Belgium -2
France 4 France 2
Germany -8 Germany -11
Ireland 13 Ireland 13
Italy 9 Italy 7
Netherlands 2 Netherlands 6
Norway 7 Norway 7
Spain 7 Spain 17
Sweden 15 Sweden -1
UK 18 UK 11
1. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels,
Transport, Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.
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About the Survey Net Employment Outlook
Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
decrease the number of employees in their workforce during
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment
quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of
Outlook.
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area Seasonal Adjustment
of focus. Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for the
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the United States and United Kingdom to provide additional insight
only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to
employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys review the data without the employment fluctuations that
and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a
occurred in the past. clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to add
seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived future, as more historical data is compiled.
all of its information from a single question.
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Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Dr., Milwaukee, WI 53217
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com