Professional Documents
Culture Documents
POLTIKA
The Legislative:
The Composition of the
17th Congress and
their Legislative Agenda
JUNE 2016
Foreign Policy:
Duterte Policy on
the South China Sea:
Forecasting 2016
CONTENTS
ON THE COVER & CONTENTS
Credits to the following Contributors:
Prof. Victor Andres Dindo Manhit, Francesco
Pangalangan and Angelica Mangahas
Picture credits to the following: philippine-pjg.
blogspot.com, bworldonline.com,
news.abs-cbn.com, en.wikipedia.org,
channelnewsasia.com
The
New
President
The Uncertain
but Promising
Road Ahead
Legislative
Updates
Legislative
Agenda
Foreign
Policy
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p.6
p.7
p.8
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The Moro groups have seen similar attention: Duterte had a joint meeting with the leadership
of both the Moro National Liberation Front and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front on June 18. Both
groups reportedly support the move toward federalism. At present, there is some uncertainty over
the implementation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law as a stand-alone measure or as part of a push
toward a federal system in the countryanother campaign priority for Duterte. Either case could
be expected to provide a greater share of autonomy to the proposed region.
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Many of the measures that were passed were part of the Senate,
House and Presidential Legislative Liaison Offices (PLLO) legislative
priorities that were identified early in the 16th Congress. Over the
last three years, the leadership of both Houses of Congress met
several times to coordinate the measures each would take up in
the hopes of streamlining the process and improve the chances of
passing common priorities. The Aquino-friendly 16th Congress would
also take into consideration the Presidents legislative wish list which
was coordinated through the PLLO, or through the seldom-convened
The Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC).
Several of the bills on the list were also on the business communitys
list of priorities. Arangkada Philippines, a major advocacy of the Joint
Foreign Chambers (JFC), came-up with a list of bills that it considered
important and of interest to the business community. The Philippine
Competition Act, amendments to the Cabotage law, Right-of-Way
Act, and Customs Modernization and Tariffs Act (CMTA), were on
their list and were all approved in the 16th Congress. However, a
majority of the business communitys priorities did not make the
cut, even though several were on the Senate, HOR or PLLOs lists.
These were bills such as the Amendments to the Economic Provisions
of the Constitution, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Charter
Amendments, Freedom of Information (FOI), the Public-Private
Partnership (PPP) bill, Bangsamoro Basic Law, Fiscal Incentives, and
whistleblowers protection act.
Undoubtedly, the business sector will continue to push for these
bills when the 17th Congress begins in July. Furthermore, if returning
as members of the 17th Congress, the proponents of the above
mentioned bills could choose to refile these unpassed bills and argue
for prioritization, especially for those bills that reached advanced
stages of legislation in the previous Congress. Ultimately, however,
the legislative agenda of the 17th Congress will be determined by its
incoming leadership and committee chairpersons.
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Nevertheless, clarity from the decision will be an important step in defining the bounds for future
negotiated agreementsfor example, if struck down, China will not be able to use the nine-dashed line
as the basis for its claims. Even in the short term, clarity can help delimit the acceptable behaviors of
states around the territories they occupy. For example, determining whether a feature is an island or not
will impact whether or not a country can enforce a 200 nautical-mile Exclusive Economic Zone around it.
Thus, the lack of an immediate resolution to questions of sovereignty does not render the case pointless.
Short-term Instability
China has declared that it will not abide by the decision of the court, which is in line with its decision
not to formally participate in arbitration. Beyond this declaration, however, it is likely that China will
decide to tangibly demonstrate its unwillingness to comply. Experts have begun to discuss the various
forms of retaliation that China may resort to: raising an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South
China Sea, thereby requiring pilots flying through the disputed areas to seek the countrys approval
before flying over the sea; beginning to build an artificial island in Scarborough Shoal, well within the
Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone; or blockading Second Thomas Shoal, where the BRP Sierra Madre
has been grounded, have been raised as some possibilities.
Although the Philippines has not signaled its own response to such measures thus far, other countries
like the United States have begun activities to deter Chinese retaliation. These include this weeks move
by the United States to sail two so-called super carriers through the disputed areas as a warning to
China. While the Philippines is expected to be the primary target of such retaliation for having been the
country to lodge the case, other claimant countries, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, could also
react to defend the islands that they occupy through shows of military force or even by following in the
Philippines footsteps and lodge cases of their own.
As a result, the weeks that follow the release of the decision are likely to have the greatest tension, as
all interested states will want to signify their support or disregard for the ruling. These weeks will also
pose the greatest risk for unexpected escalations, as countries may miscalculate their own capabilities
and, in testing each other, miscalculate the response of an opposing side. While the Philippines should
take extra care during this period, neither should it abandon the advantage that it has, by virtue of
having lodged the case in question, of being the lead country in what could be a regional effort to enforce
the decision.
For Southeast Asia, one excellent venue to discuss the case would be the upcoming Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers meeting, which will be held at the end of July and
separate meetings with the participation of ASEAN dialogue partners like China, Japan, and the United
States. Southeast Asians would ideally reiterate their strong consensus over the need to freeze all
destabilizing activities in the South Sea and request all countries to abide by the decision of the court.
Just as impactful, and perhaps even more so, would be for all the claimant countries to release a joint
statement indicating their decision over the best course to take for the resolution of the disputes in the
middle-to-long term.
Medium-term Progress
Depending on states behaviors in the short-term, medium-term prospects for resolution could look very
different. If a peaceful new normal is quickly established in the disputed areas, the stage will be set
for the Philippines to consider or even lay out the conditions under which it will enter negotiations with
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the disputing parties. These options include bilateral negotiations with China or multilateral negotiations
with different make-ups, either with all countries sitting together jointly or by dividing the large areas of
dispute into discrete areas where only the claimants with overlapping claims need negotiate.
With different options on the table, we can again expect varying levels of cooperation for each option
from the states in the dispute. Unlike in arbitration, China must agree to participate for meaningful
negotiations to take place. This will be an important time not only for the Philippines to assert its rights,
but for it and other Southeast Asian countries to reassure China that negotiations under any set-up will
occur in good faith and without collusion from the other claimants. In the past, experts have posited that
China is unwilling to enter negotiations where it feels as though it will be ganged-up on by other states.
In the near-term, the Philippines will also need to consider a means of reassuring China that does not
simultaneously put it in a disadvantageous negotiating position.
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Conclusion
There are many moving parts in the foreign policy landscape for the Philippines. It is
hard to say what other short-term moves from the incoming Duterte administration could
have as long-term an effect as its decisions in the weeks that follow the release of a
decision from the Permanent Court of Arbitration. On other issues, Duterte has spoken of
the importance of considering current political realities in his decision-making.
When it comes to the South China Sea, the current political reality is that the Philippines
is an underpowered state, sandwiched between China and the United States, that must
also contend with the politics of other Southeast Asian nations. Under these conditions, it
would be tempting to walk away quietly with a few concessions. However, the incoming
president must also weigh the extent to which the country should permit short-term
power imbalances to carve away at the countrys maritime rights and natural heritage. The
Philippines hands are not as tied as he may believe.
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ENDNOTES:
Ina Andolong, How Duterte-Cayetano will suppress crime in 3-6 months, CNN Philippines,
18 April 2016, accessed 17 May 2016, http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/04/15/Duterte-Cayetanoplan-crime-corruption-drugs.html.
Duterte may impose curfew on minors, ban loud karaoke, ABS-CBN News, 11 May 2016, accessed 17 May 2016, http://news.abs-cbn.com/nation/05/10/16/duterte-may-impose-curfew-on-minorsban-loud-karaoke.
Carmencita A. Carillo, Communist party offered posts as Duterte Cabinet takes shape, Business World, 16 May 2016, accessed 17 May 2016, http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=To
pStory&title=communist-party-offered-postsbr-as-duterte-cabinet-takes-shape&id=127583.
http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/06/15/Duterte-team-peace-talks-with-NDF-Oslo-Norway.html
Edith Regalado and Aurea Calica, Philippines is Asias rising tiger, Philstar Global, 06 February 2013, accessed 05 May 2016, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/02/06/905371/philippinesasias-rising-tiger-world-bank.
LIST: Dutertes 8-point economic agenda, CNN Philippines, 13 May 2016, accessed 17 May
2016, http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/05/12/rodrigo-duterte-eight-point-economic-agenda.html.
Pia Ranada, Dutertes dream legacy: 3 major train lines across Philippines, Rappler, 09 April
2016, accessed 17 May 2016, http://www.rappler.com/nation/politics/elections/2016/128807-duterte-railway-systems-china-legacy.
Mike Frialde, Duterte to amend Constitution for foreign ownership expansion, Philippine
Star, 04 February 2016, accessed 17 May 2016,http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/02/04/1549659/
duterte-amend-constitution-foreign-ownership-expansion
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