Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Current
Aircraft Finance
Market Outlook
2016
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Capital
Providers
Customers
Policy and
Opinion Leaders
2010
CAUTIONARY
2011
MAJOR CONCERN
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
Leasing Companies
Capital Markets
Commercial Banks
Export Credit Agencies
Private Equity and Hedge Funds
Tax Equity
New Sources of Funding
Aircraft and Engine
Manufacturers
$172B
$161B
$142B
$122B
23%
$127B
$130B
24%
34%
36%
28%
27%
13%
11%
2015
2016F
TAX EQUITY
CASH
CAPITAL MARKETS
BANK DEBT
EXPORT CREDIT
2017
2018
2019
2020
MANUFACTURER
25%
CASH
CAPITAL MARKETS
BANK DEBT
EXPORT CREDIT
38%
LESSOR FINANCING
28%
9%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Lessors
The role of leasing companies in supporting
new commercial airplane deliveriesboth
through direct purchases and saleleasebacksis again expected to be significant. We anticipate that lessors will continue
securing most of their leverage through the
capital markets, including issuances by
parent companies, unsecured borrowing,
and asset-backed securities transactions.
The emerging trend of lessor portfolio selldown into the capital markets took flight in
2015. Leasing companies joined with investors
to establish a number of joint ventures and
other structures designed to enable the
transfer of aircraft portfolio ownership to the
capital markets. In 2016, we project this lessor
portfolio sell-down trend to continue gaining
momentum.
Capital markets
Balance in capital markets usage
Last year was a blockbuster
year for capital market funding
of commercial aircraft, and we
Non-US
anticipate that 2016 will bring
airlines
more of the same. Innovative
25%
structures and new funding
Lessors
2015
sources continue to emerge,
45%
with the growth in private
US
placement activity and non-US
airlines
EETCs being notable examples.
30%
The strongest credits are
expected to keep tapping
CHINA
JAPAN
16%
29%
5%
6%
FRANCE
2016F
AUSTRALIA
7%
15%
9%
13%
GERMANY
MIDDLE EAST
USA
OTHER
Export credit
Given the ample liquidity available from
commercial markets, we forecast that global
export credit usage will remain at historically