Tony Blair has been holding
discussions with some of his
oldest allies on how he could
mount a campaign later this
year to become full-time
president of the EU council,
the prestigious new job
characterised as "president of
Europe". Blair, currently the
Middle East envoy for the
US, Russia, EU and the UN,
has told friends he has made
no final decision, but is
increasingly willing to put
himself forward for the job if
it comes with real powers to
intervene in defence and
trade affairs.
Blair, who is being actively
promoted by the French
president Nicolas Sarkozy,
recognises he would need to
abandon his well-paid,
private sector jobs if he won.
His wife Cherie - often
portrayed as seeking ever
more wealth and well-paid
consultancies for her husband
- is understood to be
supportive of him accepting
the job.
Some Blair allies also say
that he now recognises that as
envoy in the Middle East he
is not going to be allowed to
become the key player in
furthering Israeli-Palestinian
talks this year, and will be
reduced to a role of
supporting political
development in Palestine and
boosting its economy.
The president of the
European council of
ministers is a post created
under the Lisbon treaty. The
president will be the
permanent chair of the
council of ministers, Europe's
chief decision-making body.
Jonathan Powell, Blair's
Downing Street chief of staff,
is among the former
lieutenants he has met to
discuss a bid for the
European role.
Some senior figures believe
he could yet be a loser in the
carve-up of four big
European jobs due to be
distributed at the end of the
French presidency in the
second half of this year.
Some claim that if the
commission president, José
Manuel Barroso, wanted to
remain in post for a second
term, it would be difficult for
Blair, a political ally and
previous advocate for
Barroso, to hold the parallel,
prestigious European council
job.
Decisions also have to be
made on the appointment of a
new, "high representative" on
foreign policy, and the post of
president of the European
parliament. Smaller EU
countries are sensitive about
key jobs being taken by
leading figures from larger
countries, especially from
one that is not part of the
eurozone or the Schengen
free-movement area, and that
actively supports Turkish
membership, as Britain has.
Some French socialists have
already come out against
Blair, citing his role in the
war in Iraq. Former French
president Valéry Giscard
D'Estaing has also expressed
his opposition.
It is thought that the German
chancellor, Angela Merkel, is
not persuaded of the
advantages of a Blair
presidency. The Christian
Democrats have recently
been politically weakened in
state elections, and fear a
Blair presidency might
strengthen the German Social
Democrats. Neither the
Germans nor the French
would push Blair if they
believed his appointment was
going to be opposed by
Gordon Brown.
Blair himself is still doubtful
that the role of council
president will become a
powerful job, saying he
senses that even pro-
Europeans might recoil from
ceding power from the nation
state.
With most countries currently
focused on ratifying the
Lisbon treaty through their
national parliaments,
decisions on the powers of
the full-time president are
unlikely to be made until the
second half of the year.
Apart from Blair, two other
candidates most often
mentioned are the former
Austrian chancellor
Wolfgang Schüssel,
promoted by Germany, and
the current Luxembourg
prime minister, Jean-Claude
Juncker.