DRA Study 05-20-2011 Single Family PL Demand 35pgs Oak R SFCredit Final 052011 Reduced PDF

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand
City of Oakland Community

Development Districts
May 20, 2011
S U B M I T T E D
T O :
Jackie Campbell
Community & Economic Development Agency
City of Oakland
250 Frank H. Ogawa Plaza, Suite 5313
Oakland, CA 94612
S U B M I T T E D
B Y :
David Paul Rosen & Associates

1330 Broadway, Suite 937
Oakland, CA 94612
510-451-2552
510-451-2554 Fax
david@draconsultants.com
www.draconsultants.com
3941 Hendrix Street

Irvine, CA 92614
949-559-5650
949-559-5706 Fax
nora@draconsultants.com
www.draconsultants.com
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .......................................................................1
A.
Context...................................................................................4
B. Methodology and Data Sources ..............................................8

1. Methodology .......................................................................8
2. Single-Family Home Sales Data and Listings .......................9
C.
Maximum Affordable Home Price ..........................................9
D. Affordable Home Sales Volume............................................14

E.
Low and Moderate Income Single-Family Purchase Loan

Demand...............................................................................15
Appendix A: Dataquick Home Sales Data
Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

City of Oakland
March 20, 2011

ii
L I S T
O F
T A B L E S
Table 1: Summary of Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan

Demand, Oakland Community Development Districts,
2010 ...............................................................................2
Table 2: Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume, Oakland-FremontHayward MSA, 2004 to 2009..........................................6
Table 3: Assumptions for Calculation of Affordable Home Price
Calculation, Oakland Single-Family Purchase Loan
Demand Analysis ..........................................................10
Table 4:
Maximum Affordable Home Price by Household Size,

Oakland Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand
Analysis .......................................................................11
Table 5: Maximum Affordable Home Price Calculation, Oakland

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis, FHA
Financing Scenario ......................................................12
Table 6: Maximum Affordable Home Price Calculation, Oakland
Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis,
Conventional Financing Scenario ................................13
Table 7: Total Home Sales, Attached and Detached, Oakland
Community Development Districts, 2008 to 2010 .......14
Table 8:
Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Price

Range, 2008 to 2010 ...................................................15
Table 9: Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Unit

Bedroom Count, 2008 to 2010 ....................................17
Table 10: Summary of Home Sales and Listings by Price Range,
Oakland Community Development Districts, 2010 and
2011 ............................................................................18

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iii
Table 11: Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand by Low

and Moderate Income Households, Attached and
Detached Units, 2008 to 2010.....................................20
and Moderate Income Households by Unit Bedroom
Count and Attached and Detached Units, 2008 ..........21
Table A-1: Annual Oakland Community Development District
Home Sales Listings by Price Range and Community
Development District, 2008 to 2010............................24
L I S T
O F
C H A R T S
Chart 1: U.S. Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume, 2001 to

2010 ............................................................................... 5
Chart 2: Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume, OaklandFremont-Hayward MSA, 2004 to 2009............................ 7

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iv
Executive Summary
The high cost of housing in Oakland results in housing problems ranging from
households paying a high percentage of their incomes toward housing to
overcrowding. Market access to credit for low and moderate income homebuyers
plays an important role in alleviating some of these housing problems.
The City of Oaklands Linked Banking Services Ordinance, established in 1993, is
primarily designed to increase the availability of credit for the Citys community
development credit demand, particularly credit for small businesses and for the
acquisition or residential properties in the Citys seven Community Development
Districts (CD Districts), the geographic area considered to contain the vast
majority of community credit demand.
The specific purpose of the credit needs estimates is to determine the aggregate
community credit demand in any given year. This aggregate credit demand figure
is then used to d Oakland, and the performance of individual banks operating in
the City. The study also provides local policy makers and the general public with
critical information regarding credit demand and lending potential within the CD
Districts, with which to consider lending strategies and barriers and frame
community and economic development policies.
This study estimates mortgage credit demand for single-family home purchase in
the Citys seven CD Districts.
DRA has prepared estimates of small business credit demand under separate cover,
and is currently preparing an analysis of home foreclosures in the CD Districts.
In consultation with City housing officials, DRA calculated the mortgage and home
price affordable to low and moderate income buyers based on assumptions
regarding income level, affordable housing expense, interest rate, downpayment
amount, and debt to income ratios currently in practice for mortgage underwriting.
DRA then obtained data from DataQuick detailing the number of single family
homes and condominiums selling within the geographic area comprising the City
Single-Family Credit Demand Analysis

City of Oakland
March 20, 2011

1
of Oaklands seven CD Districts, approximated by zip codes. DRA multiplied the

per unit supportable mortgage by the estimated number of home sales by unit
bedroom count to calculate total annual single-family purchase loan demand in
the CD Districts.
DRA calculated maximum affordable home price and loan demand under two
financing scenarios: 1) FHA mortgage financing; and 2) conventional financing.
Based on the assumptions used in this analysis under the two scenarios, the
maximum affordable home price for four-person low and moderate income
households, home sales in the affordable price range, and estimated loan demand
are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1
Summary of Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand
Oakland Community Development Districts
2010
FHA
Conventional
Maximum Affordable Home Price

(Household of Four Persons)
Low Income Households
Moderate Income Households
$198,000
$315,000
$224,000
$357,000
Number of Home Sales in

Affordable Price Range, 20101
Total Low and Moderate
1,291
528
1,819
1,449
465
1,914
Total Purchase Mortgage Loan

Demand (Millions)1
$241
$306
$113
$98
$354
$404
As shown in Table 1, the estimated maximum affordable home price for a fourperson low income household in Oakland is approximately $198,000 under the
1
Affordable price and number of sales adjusted by household size and unit bedroom, count,
therefore total demand does not equal the maximum affordable price shown in this table multiplied
by number of sales.

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

2
FHA financing scenario, based on 2010 median household income and the other
assumptions used in this analysis. The maximum affordable price for a four-person
low income household increases to $224,000 under conventional financing
assumptions. For moderate income Oakland households, the maximum affordable
price for moderate income households is estimated at $315,000 under the FHA
financing scenario and $357,000 assuming conventional financing.
As detailed in this analysis, the maximum affordable home price is adjusted by
household size and matched to the number of bedrooms in each unit sold. Based
on these assumptions, there were approximately 1,291 sales of attached and
detached homes in Oaklands seven CD Districts at or below the maximum
affordable prices for low income households under the FHA financing scenario.
Under the higher affordable prices for conventional financing, the number of home
sales affordable to low income households increases to 1,449.
An estimated 528 homes were sold in the price range affordable to moderate
income households under the FHA financing scenario. This figure excludes the
number of homes sold below the low income maximum home prices. An
estimated 465 homes were sold in the moderate income price range under the
conventional financing scenario. This number is lower than for the FHA scenario
because more homes were included in the low income category assuming
conventional financing.
Multiplying the number of affordable homes sold within the affordable price range
by bedroom count by the estimated mortgage purchase loan (total sales price times
loan to value ratio) for homes within that price range yields total estimated single
family purchase loan demand. DRAs estimates indicate that 2010 single-family
purchase loan demand equals $241 million for low income households under the
FHA financing scenario, and $306 million under the conventional scenario. For
moderate income households, estimated single-family purchase loan demand
equals $113 under the FHA scenario and $98 under the conventional scenario.
Total 2010 single family purchase loan demand for low and moderate income
households therefore equals $354 under the FHA financing scenario and $404
under the conventional financing scenario.

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

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A. Context
The single-family mortgage lending industry has seen dramatic changes over the
past decade. The U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis followed a decade-long housing
boom fueled by low interest rates and excess liquidity. During the boom period,
home prices rose rapidly and many homebuyers purchased these high-priced
homes with non-traditional mortgage products funded by over-eager mortgage
lenders. Approximately 80% of U.S. mortgages issued to subprime borrowers were
adjustable-rate mortgages2.
After U.S. home sales prices peaked in 2006 and began to decline, refinancing
became more difficult. The serious sub prime crisis, which began in mid-2007,
was followed by a widely reported credit crunch, during which it became very
difficult for borrowers to obtain a mortgage to purchase or refinance a home.
The role played by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) in insuring loans by
banks and other private lenders also changed dramatically during this period.
Nationwide trends in single-family home purchase loan volume from 2001 to
2010, and the share of loans insured by FHA, are shown in Chart 1. Total singlefamily purchase loan volume plummeted from a peak of $1.5 trillion in 2005 to
less than half that amount, $731 billion, in 2008. Meanwhile, the share of singlefamily purchase loans insured by FHA reached its lowest level in a decade in
2005, at 2.6%, as many borrowers used subprime and other non-standard lending
instruments. The share of purchase mortgages insured by FHA in the wake of the
credit crunch increased dramatically to 28.1 percent in 2009 and 33.2 percent
during the first three quarters of 2010.
Senator Dodd, Create, Sustain, Preserve and Protect the American Dream of Home Ownership,
press release, February 7, 2007.

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March 20, 2011

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Chart 1
U.S. Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume
2001 to 20101
(Dollar Amounts In Billions)
2010 data through the third quarter.
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, FHA, Mortgage Bankers Association
MBA Mortgage Finance Forecast report, and Loan Performance True Standings Servicing data
system.
Local trends in single-family purchase lending in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward

MSA are depicted in Table 2 and Chart 2 for the period 2004 through 2009 (based
on the most recent Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, or HMDA, data available).
The trend in single-family purchase mortgage lending in the Oakland MSA
parallels the national trend, with a peak in total loan volume in 2006 of $9.4
billion, followed by an abrupt decline to less than half that amount, $4.3 billion, in
2008. The trend in the share of FHA loan activity is even more pronounced in the
MSA than on the national level, with FHA/VA loans accounting for less than one
tenth of one percent of total loan volume in the MSA in 2006 and 2007, followed
by a dramatic increase to 33.6% in 2009.

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Table 2
Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward MSA1
2004 to 2009
(Dollar Amounts In 000s)
FHA and VA
No. of Loans
Loan Volume
No.
% of Total
No.
% of Total
1
2
Total Market2
No. of
Loan
Loans
Volume
2004
108
0.47%
$18,969
0.24%
22,998
$7,773,629
2005
73
0.30%
$9,511
0.10%
24,369
$9,368,929
2006
44
0.17%
$4,206
0.04%
25,236
$9,424,313
2007
38
0.25%
$4,852
0.08%
14,948
$5,909,877
2008
2,699
22.79%
$847,870
19.39%
11,843
$4,373,228
2009
6,504
37.14%
$1,924,458
33.59%
17,513
$5,727,830
MSA includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties

Includes FHA, VA and conventional loans.
Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, Federal Financial Institutions Examination
Council (FFIEC).

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

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Chart 2
Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward MSA1
2004 to 2009
(Dollar Amounts In 000s)
1
2
MSA includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties

Includes FHA, VA and conventional loans.
Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, Federal Financial Institutions Examination
Council (FFIEC).

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May 20, 2011

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B. Methodology and Data Sources

1.
Methodology
Conceptually, credit needs can be defined in two ways. First, credit demand can
be defined as that demand which is bankable, i.e. credit demand that
conventional and other lenders are currently willing to meet. Second, credit need
can be defined as the need for credit, even where conventional lenders may not be
meeting that need. Such unmet credit need is very difficult to quantify for several
reasons. Potential borrowers, for example, may not apply for loans due to a lack of
information about credit or because they believe that credit is not available to
them, or loan applicants are not deemed bankable under uniform underwriting
criteria. Due to the problems associated with determining unmet needs that may
not be bankable, the estimates in this study seek to identify bankable demand. To
estimate bankable residential credit demand for single-family home purchase, the
maximum mortgage affordable to low and moderate income households based on
2010 area median income (AMI) is calculated and multiplied by the number of
homes sold in the CD Districts below that maximum price in the 2008 to 2010
time period.
DRA calculated the mortgage and home price affordable to low and moderate
income buyers based on assumptions regarding income level, affordable housing
expense, interest rate, downpayment amount, and debt to income ratios currently
in practice for mortgage underwriting. DRA then obtained data from DataQuick
detailing the number of single family homes and condominiums selling within the
geographic area comprising the City of Oaklands seven Community Development
Districts (CD Districts), approximated by zip codes. DRA multiplied the per unit
supportable mortgage by unit bedroom count by the estimated number of home
sales within the affordable price ranges to calculate total annual single-family
purchase loan demand in Oaklands CD Districts.

City of Oakland
March 20, 2011

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2.
Single-Family Home Sales Data and Listings
DRA obtained data from DataQuick detailing the number of single family homes
and condominiums selling within the seven Community Development Districts (CD
Districts) in the City of Oakland within the affordable price range for a three
calendar year period: 2008, 2009 and 2010.
The data on sales of single-family homes and condominiums were obtained for the
geographic region, defined by zip codes, that most closely approximates the seven
Community Development (CD) districts. While CD district boundaries do not align
exactly with zip code boundaries, the CD districts regions were approximated
using the eleven zip codes contained within the districts.3
DRA also reviewed current MLS listings for single family detached and
condominium homes listed for sale within the CD Districts, again defined by zip
codes, at or below affordable purchase prices.
C. Maximum Affordable Home Price

DRA calculated the maximum affordable home price for low and moderate income
households of two to five persons based on 2010 area median income (2011 AMI
is not available as of this writing) for Alameda County under two financing
scenarios:
1.
FHA financing, with a loan-to-value ratio of 96.5% and a 3.5% downpayment;

and
2.
Conventional financing, assuming a loan-to-value ratio of 90% and a 10%

downpayment.
Maximum affordable home prices were calculated for low income households with
incomes at 80% of area median income, adjusted for household size, and for
moderate income households with incomes at 120% of area median income (AMI),
adjusted for household size. Since pegging affordable home price at the top of the
income range may overstate demand by the majority of households in that range
that earn less than the maximum income, affordable home price was calculated at a
3
The zip codes included in this analysis of Oaklands CD Districts are: 94601, 94603, 94604,
94605, 94606, 94607, 94609, 94612, 94620, 94621, 94624.

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May 20, 2011

9
mid-point of each range: 70% of AMI for low income households and 110% for
moderate income households.
The assumptions for the calculation of maximum affordable home price are
summarized in Table 3 for each of the two financing scenarios.
Table 3
Assumptions for Calculation of Affordable Home Price Calculation
Oakland Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis
Financing Scenario:
FHA
Conventional
Principal, Interest, Taxes and

Insurance as a % of Income
30%
30%
Loan to Value Ratio
96.5%
90%
Downpayment
3.5%
10%
Property Tax Rate
1.2%
1.2%
$50
$50
Mortgage Interest Rate (Fixed)4
5.65%
5.65%
Annual Mortgage
Premium
1.15%
0.52%
30 years
30 years
Monthly Property Insurance
Term/Amortization
Insurance
Based on these assumptions, the maximum affordable sales price by household size
and income are shown in Table 4. It should be noted that while the conventional
scenario results in a higher affordable mortgage and home price, it also requires a
higher downpayment, thereby reducing the size of the pool of potential borrowers
who may have adequate funds on hand to purchase a home.
Based on average Freddie Mac commitment rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages from April 2010
through March 2011 of 4.65% plus 100 basis points. March 2011 rate is 4.84%.

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

10
Table 4
Maximum Affordable Home Price by Household Size
Financing Scenario:
FHA
Conventional
2 Persons
$157,000
$178,000
3 Persons
$178,000
$201,000
4 Persons
$198,000
$224,000
5 Persons
$215,000
$243,000
6 Persons
$231,000
$261,000
2 Persons
$251,000
$284,000
3 Persons
$283,000
$320,000
4 Persons
$315,000
$357,000
5 Persons
$341,000
$386,000
6 Persons
$367,000
$415,000

(Up to 80% of Area Median Income)

(80% to 120% of Area Median Income)
The calculations of maximum affordable home price are detailed in Table 5 for the
FHA financing scenario and Table 6 for the conventional financing scenario.

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May 20, 2011

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Table 5
Maximum Affordable Home Price Calculation
FHA Financing Scenario
2011
ASSUMPTIONS
2010 Median Household Income, Family of Four, Alameda County
Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance (PITI) As a % of Income
Loan to Value
Downpayment (% of Home Price)
FHA Upfront Mortgage Insurance Premium
$90,300
30%
96.5%
3.5%
1.00%

Property Tax Rate
$50
1.20%
Mortgage Interest Rate (1)

Term (Years)
FHA Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium
5.65%
30
1.15%
Household Size
Household Size Income Adjustment Factor
2 Persons
80%
3 Persons
90%
4 Persons
100%
5 Persons
108%
2 Persons
3 Persons
4 Persons
5 Persons
AFFORDABLE HOME PRICE

Household Size:
70% AMI
Annual Income Used to Calculate Price
Monthly PITI
Less: Property Insurance
Less: Annual MIP (Monthly Payment)
Available for Principal, Interest, Taxes
Less: Property Taxes (2)
1.20%
Supportable Mortgage Before Prop. Taxes
Assumed Assessed Value at Sale
96.50%
Available for Mortg. Principal and Interest
Supportable Mortgage
Plus: Downpayment
Maximum Affordable Price
Estimated Maximum Affordable Market Price
110% AMI
Monthly PITI
Less: Annual MIP (Monthly Payment)
1.20%
96.50%
Plus: Downpayment
$50,568
$1,264
($50)
($146)
________
$1,068
$192
$185,099
$191,813
$877
$151,870
$5,508
$157,378
$157,000
$56,889
$1,422
($50)
($164)
________
$1,208
$217
$209,189
$216,777
$991
$171,635
$6,225
$177,860
$178,000
$63,210
$1,580
($50)
($183)
________
$1,347
$242
$233,280
$241,741
$1,105
$191,401
$6,942
$198,343
$198,000
$68,267
$1,707
($50)
($199)
________
$1,458
$262
$252,644
$261,807
$1,197
$207,288
$7,518
$214,806
$215,000
$79,464
$1,987
($50)
($232)
________
$1,705
$306
$295,335
$306,047
$1,399
$242,316
$8,789
$251,105
$251,000
$89,397
$2,235
($50)
($262)
________
$1,923
$345
$333,148
$345,231
$1,578
$273,340
$9,914
$283,254
$283,000
$99,330
$2,483
($50)
($292)
________
$2,141
$384
$370,961
$384,415
$1,757
$304,365
$11,039
$315,404
$315,000
$107,276
$2,682
($50)
($316)
________
$2,316
$416
$401,302
$415,857
$1,901
$329,259
$11,942
$341,201
$341,000
(1) Based on average Freddie Mac commitment rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages from April 2010 through
March 2011 of 4.65% plus 100 basis points. March 2011 rate is 4.84%.
(2) Calculated based on assessed value equal to affordable mortgage plus downpayment.
Source: David Paul Rosen & Associates.
12
Table 6
Maximum Affordable Home Price Calculation
Conventional Financing Scenario
2011
ASSUMPTIONS
2010 Median Household Income, Family of Four, Alameda County
Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance (PITI) As a % of Income
Loan to Value
Downpayment (% of Home Price)
$90,300
30%
90%
10%

Property Tax Rate
$50
1.20%
Mortgage Interest Rate (1)

Term (Years)
Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) Annual Premium
5.65%
30
0.52%
Household Size
Household Size Income Adjustment Factor
2 Persons
80%
3 Persons
90%
4 Persons
100%
5 Persons
108%
2 Persons
3 Persons
4 Persons
5 Persons
AFFORDABLE HOME PRICE

Household Size:
70% AMI
Monthly PITI
Less: Private Mortgage Insurance Premium
1.20%
Supportable Mortgage Before Prop. Taxes
90.00%
Plus: Downpayment
110% AMI
Monthly PITI
Less: Private Mortgage Insurance Premium
1.20%
90.00%
Plus: Downpayment
$50,568
$1,264
($50)
($69)
________
$1,145
$220
$198,292
$220,325
$924
$160,123
$17,791
$177,915
$178,000
$56,889
$1,422
($50)
($78)
________
$1,294
$249
$224,100
$248,999
$1,045
$180,963
$20,107
$201,070
$201,000
$63,210
$1,580
($50)
($87)
________
$1,443
$278
$249,907
$277,674
$1,165
$201,803
$22,423
$224,225
$224,000
$68,267
$1,707
($50)
($95)
________
$1,562
$301
$270,651
$300,723
$1,262
$218,554
$24,284
$242,837
$243,000
$79,464
$1,987
($50)
($111)
________
$1,826
$352
$316,385
$351,539
$1,475
$255,485
$28,387
$283,872
$284,000
$89,397
$2,235
($50)
($125)
________
$2,060
$397
$356,893
$396,548
$1,664
$288,195
$32,022
$320,217
$320,000
$99,330
$2,483
($50)
($139)
________
$2,294
$442
$397,401
$441,557
$1,852
$320,906
$35,656
$356,562
$357,000
$107,276
$2,682
($50)
($150)
________
$2,482
$478
$429,905
$477,672
$2,004
$347,154
$38,573
$385,726
$386,000
(1) Based on average Freddie Mac commitment rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages from April 2010 through
March 2011 of 4.65% plus 100 basis points. March 2011 rate is 4.84%.
(2) Calculated based on assessed value equal to affordable mortgage plus downpayment.
Source: David Paul Rosen & Associates.
13
D. Affordable Home Sales Volume

1.
Home Sales Data
DRA obtained data from Dataquick on home sales by price range in the eleven zip
codes comprising Oaklands seven CDs for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010.
Table 7 shows the distribution of attached and detached home sales. The number
of home sales increased from 1,803 in 2008, to 2,970 in 2009, and then decreased
again to 2,315 in 2010. Attached home sales accounted for 15% to 19% of total
home sales over this time period.
Table 7
Total Home Sales, Attached and Detached
Oakland Community Development District
2008 to 2010
2008
Number Percent
2009
Number Percent
2010
Number Percent
Attached Homes
303
17%
439
15%
430
19%
Detached Homes
1,500
83%
2,531
85%
1,885
81%
Total Home Sales
1,803
100%
2,970
100%
2,315
100%
Source: Dataquick; David Paul Rosen & Associates
The Dataquick data also disaggregate home sales by price range and by the
number of bedrooms in the unit. Table 8 shows detached and attached home sales
by price range over the past three years. Table 9 disaggregates home sales by the
number of bedrooms in the home. A complete breakdown of the sales data by
year, bedroom count and price range is contained in the Appendix, Table A-1.

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

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Table 8
Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Price Range
2008 to 2010
2008
Attached Home Sales
Less than
$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000 or More
Total
Total
2
1
3
5
4
10
12
19
32
42
22
32
9
19
3
88
303
%
1%
0%
1%
2%
1%
3%
4%
6%
11%
14%
7%
11%
3%
6%
1%
29%
100%
2009
Total
36
8
18
15
23
32
29
28
43
50
37
37
20
24
2
37
439
2008
Detached Home Sales
Less than
$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000 or More
Total
Total
210
120
165
150
133
108
95
77
62
59
45
46
26
36
4
164
1,500
%
14%
8%
11%
10%
9%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
0%
11%
100%
2010
%
8%
2%
4%
3%
5%
7%
7%
6%
10%
11%
8%
8%
5%
5%
0%
8%
100%
2009
Total
958
339
310
200
125
106
61
59
43
38
34
44
28
24
2
160
2,531
Total
35
9
15
16
29
30
23
34
38
45
46
29
23
21
6
31
430
8%
2%
3%
4%
7%
7%
5%
8%
9%
10%
11%
7%
5%
5%
1%
7%
100%
2010
%
38%
13%
12%
8%
5%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
2%
1%
1%
0%
6%
100%
Total
432
254
269
204
122
98
92
61
32
42
33
37
22
23
5
159
1,885
%
23%
13%
14%
11%
6%
5%
5%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
8%
100%
15
Table 8
Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Price Range
2008 to 2010
2008
Total Home Sales
Less than
$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000 or More
Total
Total
212
121
168
155
137
118
107
96
94
101
67
78
35
55
7
252
1,803
%
12%
7%
9%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
5%
6%
4%
4%
2%
3%
0%
14%
100%
2009
2010
Total
994
347
328
215
148
138
90
87
86
88
71
81
48
48
4
197
2,970
33%
12%
11%
7%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
2%
2%
0%
7%
100%
Total
467
263
284
220
151
128
115
95
70
87
79
66
45
44
11
190
2,315
%
20%
11%
12%
10%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
0%
8%
100%
Source: DataQuick; DQNews.com; David Paul Rosen & Associates
16
Table 9
Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Unit Bedroom Count

2008 to 2010
Attached Home Sales
Studio/
Unknown
2008
Attached Home Sales
Total
Percent
28
9%
92
30%
148
49%
29
10%
6
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
303
100%
Detached Home Sales

Total
Percent
8
1%
46
3%
781
52%
478
32%
153
10%
23
2%
7
0%
2
0%
2
0%
1,500
100%
TotalHome Sales
Total
Percent
36
2%
138
8%
929
52%
507
28%
159
9%
23
1%
7
0%
2
0%
2
0%
1,803
100%
2009
Attached Home Sales
Total
Percent
26
6%
140
46%
182
60%
74
24%
11
4%
1
0%
2
1%
0
0%
3
1%
439
145%
Detached Home Sales

Total
Percent
12
0%
111
7%
1,272
85%
825
55%
234
16%
54
4%
18
1%
2
0%
3
0%
2,531
169%
TotalHome Sales
Total
Percent
38
1%
251
14%
1,454
81%
899
50%
245
14%
55
3%
20
1%
2
0%
6
0%
2,970
165%
2010
Attached Home Sales
Total
Percent
30
7%
167
39%
166
39%
61
14%
5
1%
1
0%
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
430
100%
Detached Home Sales

Total
Percent
17
1%
66
4%
917
49%
639
34%
195
10%
34
2%
9
0%
7
0%
1
0%
1,885
100%
TotalHome Sales
Total
Percent
47
2%
233
10%
1,083
47%
700
30%
200
9%
35
2%
9
0%
7
0%
1
0%
2,315
100%
1 bed
2 beds
3 beds
4 beds
5 beds
6 beds
7 beds 8+ beds
Total
17
2.
Home Sale Listings
DRA also reviewed homes in Oaklands CD Districts currently listed for sale on the
Multiple Listing Service by price range. A total of 590 listings of attached and
detached homes were identified. Table 10 below compares the listed price of
homes on the MLS with the price range of homes sold in the CD Districts during
2010. Only homes sold or listed for a price under $450,000 are included in the
table and the percentages.
The price distribution of listed homes is similar to that of 2010 home sales, except
for the noticeably larger percentage of homes sold for prices under $100,000 in
2010. This may be due to the sales of foreclosed homes at low prices that are not
reflected in MLS listings and/or are on the decline. DRA is preparing an analysis of
foreclosures in Oaklands CD Districts under separate cover which may shed
further light on this segment of the home sales market.
Table 10
Summary of Home Sales and Listings by Price Range
2008 to 2010
2010 Home Sales
Price Range
2011 MLS Listings1
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Less than $100,000
467
22%
88
15%
$100,001 - $150,000
547
26%
174
30%
$150,001 - $200,000
371
17%
114
19%
$200,001 - $250,000
243
11%
75
13%
$250,001 - $300,000
165
8%
56
9%
$300,001 - $350,000
166
8%
42
7%
$350,001 - $400,000
111
5%
26
4%
$401,001 - $450,000
55
3%
15
3%
2,125
100%
590
100%
Total

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

18
E. Low and Moderate Income Single-Family

Purchase Loan Demand
Table 11 summarizes estimated single-family purchase loan demand for attached
and detached homes in the Oakland CD Districts based on the number of home
sales in the affordable price range in 2008 through 2010 and current affordable
home prices for low and moderate income households.
DRAs estimates indicate that 2010 single-family purchase loan demand equals
$241 million for low income households under the FHA financing scenario, and
$306 million under the conventional scenario. For moderate income households,
estimated single-family purchase loan demand equals $113 million under the FHA
scenario and $98 million under the conventional scenario.
Total 2010 single-family mortgage loan demand for low and moderate income
households therefore equals $354 million under the FHA financing scenario and
$404 million under the conventional financing scenario.
Attached homes account for about 5% of loan demand from low income
households, 27% to 34% of loan demand from moderate income households, and
12% to 13% of total loan demand from low and moderate income households.
Total loan demand in 2010 ($364 million), is approximately 25% lower than the
estimated loan demand of $491 million in 2009, but is nearly 47% higher than
estimated loan demand of $248 million in 2008.
Tables 12 through 14 disaggregate estimated loan demand by unit bedroom count
for 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively.

City of Oakland
May 20, 2011

19
Table 11
Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand
by Low and Moderate Income Households
Attached and Detached Units
2008 to 2010
2008
Number
2009
Percent
Number
2010
Percent
Number
Percent
Low Income
FHA
Number of Affordable Home Sales (2)
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Mortgage Credit Needs (000's)
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Mortgage Credit Needs
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached
Detached
8
703
711
1%
99%
100%
66
1,877
1,943
3%
97%
100%
65
1,226
1,291
5%
95%
100%
$1,312
$126,352
$127,665
1%
99%
100%
$11,323
$338,288
$349,611
3%
97%
100%
$11,094
$221,492
$232,585
5%
95%
100%
14
847
861
2%
98%
100%
95
2,007
2,102
5%
95%
100%
85
1,364
1,449
6%
94%
100%
$2,467
$160,925
$163,392
2%
98%
100%
$17,322
$382,289
$399,612
4%
96%
100%
$15,134
$260,716
$275,849
5%
95%
100%
34
391
425
8%
92%
100%
154
404
558
28%
72%
100%
155
373
528
29%
71%
100%
$6,191
$80,401
$86,592
7%
93%
100%
$30,318
$86,033
$116,351
26%
74%
100%
$29,937
$79,531
$109,469
27%
73%
100%
82
369
451
18%
82%
100%
156
319
475
33%
67%
100%
156
309
465
34%
66%
100%
$14,306
$70,787
$85,092
17%
83%
100%
$27,225
$64,006
$91,231
30%
70%
100%
$26,861
$61,396
$88,257
30%
70%
100%
42
1,094
1,136
4%
96%
100%
220
2,281
2,501
9%
91%
100%
220
1,599
1,819
12%
88%
100%
$7,504
$206,753
$214,257
4%
96%
100%
$41,642
$424,320
$465,962
9%
91%
100%
$41,031
$301,023
$342,054
12%
88%
100%
96
1,216
1,312
7%
93%
100%
251
2,326
2,577
10%
90%
100%
241
1,673
1,914
13%
87%
100%
$16,772
$231,712
$248,485
7%
93%
100%
$44,547
$446,296
$490,843
9%
91%
100%
$41,994
$322,112
$364,106
12%
88%
100%
Moderate Income
(80% - 120% of Area Median Income)
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes

(Up to 120% of Area Median Income
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
(1) Affordable price calculated at 70% of area median income for low income households and at 110% of area median income for
moderate income households; assumes occupancy standard of 1 person per bedroom plus 1 (studios counted as 1bedroom).
Affordable home price calculated based on 2010 median household income for all three years.
(2) Equals number of homes sold under the maximum affordable price for low income households and between low income maximum affordable
price and moderate income maximum affordable price fo moderate income households, based on the assumptions used in this analysis.
20
Table 12
Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand
By Unit Bedroom Count and Attached/Detached Units
2008
1 bed
2 beds
3 beds
4 beds
5 beds
6 beds
7 beds
8+ beds
Total
$157,000
$178,000
$198,000
$215,000
$231,000
$231,000
$231,000
$231,000
4
29
33
3
414
417
1
202
203
0
44
44
0
9
9
0
4
4
0
0
0
0
1
1
8
703
711
$606
$4,394
$5,000
$515
$71,113
$71,628
$191
$38,596
$38,787
$0
$9,129
$9,129
$0
$2,006
$2,006
$0
$892
$892
$0
$0
$0
$0
$223
$223
$1,312
$126,352
$127,665
$178,000
$201,000
$224,000
$243,000
$261,000
$261,000
$261,000
$261,000
7
35
42
4
486
490
2
242
244
1
69
70
0
9
9
0
5
5
0
0
0
0
1
1
14
847
861
$1,121
$5,607
$6,728
$724
$87,917
$88,641
$403
$48,787
$49,190
$219
$15,090
$15,309
$0
$2,114
$2,114
$0
$1,175
$1,175
$0
$0
$0
$0
$235
$235
$2,467
$160,925
$163,392
$251,000
$283,000
$315,000
$341,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
22
13
35
9
207
216
2
123
125
1
38
39
0
4
4
0
5
5
0
1
1
0
0
0
34
391
425
$3,779
$2,233
$6,012
$1,746
$40,151
$41,896
$432
$26,588
$27,020
$234
$8,911
$9,145
$0
$1,007
$1,007
$0
$1,259
$1,259
$0
$252
$252
$0
$0
$0
$6,191
$80,401
$86,592
$284,000
$320,000
$357,000
$386,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
33
15
48
44
190
234
2
116
118
3
40
43
0
5
5
0
2
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
82
369
451
$5,287
$2,403
$7,690
$7,960
$34,371
$42,331
$403
$23,386
$23,789
$656
$8,748
$9,404
$0
$1,175
$1,175
$0
$470
$470
$0
$235
$235
$0
$0
$0
$14,306
$70,787
$85,092
$251,000
$283,000
$315,000
$341,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
26
42
68
12
621
633
3
325
328
1
82
83
0
13
13
0
9
9
0
1
1
0
1
1
42
1,094
1,136
$5,893
$6,797
$12,689
$8,475
$105,484
$113,959
$594
$61,982
$62,576
$656
$17,877
$18,533
$0
$3,181
$3,181
$0
$1,361
$1,361
$0
$235
$235
$0
$223
$223
$15,618
$197,139
$212,757
$284,000
$320,000
$357,000
$386,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
40
50
90
48
676
724
4
358
362
4
109
113
0
14
14
0
7
7
0
1
1
0
1
1
96
1,216
1,312
$6,408
$8,010
$14,418
$8,683
$122,288
$130,972
$806
$72,173
$72,979
$875
$23,838
$24,713
$0
$3,289
$3,289
$0
$1,644
$1,644
$0
$235
$235
$0
$235
$235
$16,772
$231,712
$248,485
Low Income
FHA
Maximum Affordable Home Price (1)
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Mortgage Credit Needs (000's) (3)
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached
Detached
Moderate Income
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes

FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
(2) Equals number of homes sold under the maximum affordable price for low income households and between low income maximum affordable price and
moderate income maximum affordable price fo moderate income households, based on the assumptions used in this analysis.
(3) Equals maximum affordable home price multiplied by number of home sales (by bedroom count) multiplied by loan to value ratio (96.5% FHA; 90% conventional)
21
Table 13
Projected Single-Family Mortgage Credit Needs
2009
1 bed
2 beds
3 beds
4 beds
5 beds
6 beds
7 beds
8+ beds
Total
$157,000
$178,000
$198,000
$215,000
$231,000
$231,000
$231,000
$231,000
22
100
122
25
1,039
1,064
15
563
578
4
124
128
0
35
35
0
14
14
0
0
0
0
2
2
66
1,877
1,943
$3,333
$15,151
$18,484
$4,294
$178,469
$182,763
$2,866
$107,572
$110,438
$830
$25,727
$26,557
$0
$7,802
$7,802
$0
$3,121
$3,121
$0
$0
$0
$0
$446
$446
$11,323
$338,288
$349,611
$178,000
$201,000
$224,000
$243,000
$261,000
$261,000
$261,000
$261,000
32
105
137
31
1,088
1,119
24
604
628
8
151
159
0
41
41
0
15
15
0
1
1
0
2
2
95
2,007
2,102
$5,126
$16,821
$21,947
$5,608
$196,819
$202,427
$4,838
$121,766
$126,605
$1,750
$33,024
$34,773
$0
$9,631
$9,631
$0
$3,524
$3,524
$0
$235
$235
$0
$470
$470
$17,322
$382,289
$399,612
$251,000
$283,000
$315,000
$341,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
59
16
75
29
139
168
51
125
176
14
111
125
1
10
11
0
2
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
154
404
558
$10,134
$2,748
$12,883
$5,625
$26,961
$32,586
$11,024
$27,020
$38,044
$3,283
$26,029
$29,312
$252
$2,519
$2,771
$0
$504
$504
$0
$252
$252
$0
$0
$0
$30,318
$86,033
$116,351
$284,000
$320,000
$357,000
$386,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
67
16
83
79
105
184
3
103
106
3
39
42
1
43
44
1
9
10
0
3
3
2
1
3
156
319
475
$10,733
$2,563
$13,297
$14,291
$18,995
$33,286
$605
$20,765
$21,370
$656
$8,529
$9,185
$235
$10,101
$10,336
$235
$2,114
$2,349
$0
$705
$705
$470
$235
$705
$27,225
$64,006
$91,231
$251,000
$283,000
$315,000
$341,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
$367,000
81
116
197
54
1,178
1,232
66
688
754
18
235
253
1
45
46
0
16
16
0
1
1
0
2
2
220
2,281
2,501
$14,067
$17,714
$31,780
$18,585
$197,464
$216,049
$3,471
$128,337
$131,808
$1,486
$34,256
$35,742
$235
$17,903
$18,138
$235
$5,235
$5,470
$0
$705
$705
$470
$681
$1,151
$38,548
$402,294
$440,842
$284,000
$320,000
$357,000
$386,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
$415,000
99
121
220
110
1,193
1,303
27
707
734
11
190
201
1
84
85
1
24
25
0
4
4
2
3
5
251
2,326
2,577
$15,860
$19,384
$35,244
$19,899
$215,814
$235,713
$5,443
$142,531
$147,974
$2,406
$41,553
$43,959
$235
$19,732
$19,967
$235
$5,638
$5,873
$0
$940
$940
$470
$705
$1,175
$44,547
$446,296
$490,843
Low Income
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached
Detached
Moderate Income
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes

FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
22
Table 14
Projected Single-Family Mortgage Credit Needs
2010
1 bed
2 beds
3 beds
4 beds
5 beds
6 beds
7 beds
Total
Low Income
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached
Detached
$157,000
$178,000 $198,000 $215,000 $231,000 $231,000 $231,000
24
63
87
22
657
679
17
390
407
1
83
84
1
19
20
0
8
8
0
6
6
65
1,226
1,291
$3,636
$9,545
$13,181
$3,779
$112,853
$116,632
$3,248
$74,517
$77,765
$207
$17,220
$17,428
$223
$4,235
$4,458
$0
$1,783
$1,783
$0
$1,337
$1,337
$11,094
$221,492
$232,585
$178,000
$201,000 $224,000 $243,000 $261,000 $261,000 $261,000
36
66
102
28
715
743
18
428
446
2
117
119
1
23
24
0
9
9
0
6
6
85
1,364
1,449
$5,767
$10,573
$16,340
$5,065
$129,344
$134,409
$3,629
$86,285
$89,914
$437
$25,588
$26,025
$235
$5,403
$5,638
$0
$2,114
$2,114
$0
$1,409
$1,409
$15,134
$260,716
$275,849
Moderate Income
FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
$251,000
$283,000 $315,000 $341,000 $367,000 $367,000 $367,000
69
9
78
31
135
166
45
114
159
10
104
114
0
9
9
0
1
1
0
1
1
155
373
528
$11,852
$1,546
$13,398
$6,013
$26,185
$32,198
$9,727
$24,642
$34,369
$2,345
$24,387
$26,732
$0
$2,267
$2,267
$0
$252
$252
$0
$252
$252
$29,937
$79,531
$109,469
$284,000
76
10
86
$12,175
$1,602
$13,777
$320,000 $357,000 $386,000 $415,000 $415,000 $415,000

73
123
196
$13,206
$22,251
$35,456
3
99
102
4
31
35
0
35
35
0
10
10
0
1
1
156
309
465
$605
$19,958
$20,563
$875
$6,780
$7,655
$0
$8,222
$8,222
$0
$2,349
$2,349
$0
$235
$235
$26,861
$61,396
$88,257

FHA
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Conventional
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
Total Home Sales
Attached Homes
Detached Homes
$251,000
93
72
165
$15,811
$11,147
$26,958
$284,000
112
76
188
$17,942
$12,175
$30,118
$283,000 $315,000 $341,000 $367,000 $367,000 $367,000

53
792
845
62
504
566
11
187
198
1
28
29
0
9
9
0
7
7
220
1,599
1,819
$16,985
$135,104
$152,088
$3,853
$94,476
$98,329
$1,082
$24,000
$25,082
$223
$12,457
$12,680
$0
$4,132
$4,132
$0
$1,572
$1,572
$37,954
$282,888
$320,842
$320,000 $357,000 $386,000 $415,000 $415,000 $415,000

101
838
939
21
527
548
6
148
154
1
58
59
0
19
19
0
7
7
241
1,673
1,914
$18,271
$4,234
$151,594 $106,243
$169,865 $110,477
$1,312
$32,368
$33,680
$235
$13,624
$13,859
$0
$4,463
$4,463
$0
$1,644
$1,644
$41,994
$322,112
$364,106
23
APPENDIX A
DATAQUICK HOME SALES DATA TABLE

City of Oakland
March 20, 2011

24
Table A-1
Annual Home Sales
by Price Range and Bedroom Count
2008 to 2010
2008
Studio/
Attached Home Sales
Unknown 1 bed 2 beds 3 beds 4 beds 5 beds 6 beds 7 beds 8+ beds Total
$100,000
1
1
2
$100,000 $125,000
1
1
$125,000 $150,000
1
1
1
3
$150,000 $175,000
1
2
2
5
$175,000 $200,000
3
1
4
$200,000 $225,000
1
7
1
1
10
$225,000 $250,000
8
2
1
1
12
$250,000 $275,000
1
13
5
19
$275,000 $300,000
2
18
12
32
$300,000 $325,000
2
15
23
1
1
42
$325,000 $350,000
1
4
16
1
22
$350,000 $375,000
4
5
22
1
32
$375,000 $400,000
3
6
9
$400,000 $425,000
1
2
11
4
1
19
$425,000 $450,000
1
2
3
$450,000
13
9
44
20
2
88
Total
28
92
148
29
6
303
Detached Home Sales

$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000
Total
2008
Studio/
21
137
35
14
2
1
210
3
87
27
3
120
5
101
50
8
1
165
6
89
38
16
1 150
1
72
52
3
5
133
2
3
45
40
17
1
108
1
48
35
8
3
95
1
1
42
28
4
1
77
1
30
18
9
3
1
62
1
1
25
20
10
1
1
59
1
22
15
7
45
14
21
10
1
46
10
12
4
26
12
16
5
1
1
1
36
2
2
4
3
3
45
69
35
8
1
164
8
46
781
478
153
23
7
2
2 1500
25
Table A-1
Annual Home Sales
2008 to 2010
2008
Total Home Sales

$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000
Total
Studio/
1
22
137
35
14
2
1
0
0 212
0
3
88
27
3
0
0
0
0 121
1
6
101
51
8
1
0
0
0 168
1
8
91
38
16
0
0
0
1 155
0
4
73
52
3
5
0
0
0 137
3
10
46
41
17
1
0
0
0 118
0
9
50
36
9
0
3
0
0 107
2
14
47
28
4
0
1
0
0
96
2
19
42
18
9
3
0
1
0
94
3
16
48
21
11
1
1
0
0 101
2
4
38
15
8
0
0
0
0
67
4
5
36
22
10
1
0
0
0
78
0
3
16
12
4
0
0
0
0
35
1
2
23
20
6
1
1
0
1
55
0
1
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
7
16
12
89
89
37
8
0
1
0 252
36 138
929
507
159
23
7
2
2 1803
26
Table A-1
Annual Home Sales
2008 to 2010
2009
Studio/
Attached Home Sales Unknown 1 bed 2 beds 3 beds 4 beds 5 beds 6 beds 7 beds 8+ beds Total
$100,000
5
4
14
10
3
36
$100,000 $125,000
4
2
2
8
$125,000 $150,000
1
8
6
3
18
$150,000 $175,000
10
3
1
1
15
$175,000 $200,000
1
16
6
23
$200,000 $225,000
2
15
4
9
2
32
$225,000 $250,000
15
10
2
2
29
$250,000 $275,000
1
17
9
1
28
$275,000 $300,000
2
11
28
2
43
$300,000 $325,000
2
17
22
7
1
1
50
$325,000 $350,000
1
11
20
3
1
1
37
$350,000 $375,000
6
4
19
7
1
37
$375,000 $400,000
2
2
8
7
1
20
$400,000 $425,000
3
15
5
1
24
$425,000 $450,000
2
2
$450,000
4
16
16
1
37
Total
26 140
182
74
11
1
2
3 439
2009
Studio/
Detached Home Sales Unknown 1 bed 2 beds 3 beds 4 beds 5 beds 6 beds 7 beds 8+ beds Total
4
82
612
215
36
5
3
1 958
$100,000
3
6
178
124
21
6
1
339
$100,000 $125,000
5
153
111
29
10
2
310
$125,000 $150,000
1
4
96
69
19
8
3
200
$150,000 $175,000
7
49
44
19
4
2
125
$175,000 $200,000
2
1
40
41
17
2
2
1
106
$200,000 $225,000
1
17
28
10
4
1
61
$225,000 $250,000
20
26
9
2
1
1
59
$250,000 $275,000
1
14
16
11
1
43
$275,000 $300,000
1
1
14
13
7
2
38
$300,000 $325,000
1
7
20
5
1
34
$325,000 $350,000
1
9
25
7
1
1
44
$350,000 $375,000
11
9
4
2
2
28
$375,000 $400,000
8
11
3
1
1
24
$400,000 $425,000
2
2
$425,000 $450,000
1
1
42
73
37
5
1
160
$450,000
12 111 1272
825
234
54
18
2
3 2531
Total
27
Table A-1
Annual Home Sales
2008 to 2010
2009
Total Home Sales

$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000
Total
Studio/
9
86
626
225
39
5
3
0
1 994
3
10
180
126
21
6
1
0
0 347
1
13
159
114
29
10
2
0
0 328
1
14
99
69
20
8
4
0
0 215
1
23
55
44
19
4
2
0
0 148
4
16
44
50
19
2
2
0
1 138
0
16
27
30
12
4
1
0
0
90
1
17
29
27
9
2
1
1
0
87
2
12
42
18
11
1
0
0
0
86
3
18
36
20
7
3
0
0
1
88
1
12
27
23
6
1
0
0
1
71
6
5
28
32
7
1
1
0
1
81
2
2
19
16
5
2
2
0
0
48
3
0
23
16
4
1
0
1
0
48
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
1
5
58
89
37
5
1
0
1 197
38 251 1454
899
245
55
20
2
6 2970
28
Table A-1
Annual Home Sales
2008 to 2010
2010
Studio/
Attached Home Sales Unknown 1 bed 2 beds 3 beds 4 beds 5 beds 6 beds 7 beds 8+ beds Total
$100,000
2
7
12
14
35
$100,000 $125,000
6
2
1
9
$125,000 $150,000
9
5
1
15
$150,000 $175,000
12
3
1
16
$175,000 $200,000
21
6
1
1
29
$200,000 $225,000
24
5
1
30
$225,000 $250,000
1
11
8
2
1
23
$250,000 $275,000
19
12
3
34
$275,000 $300,000
14
20
4
38
$300,000 $325,000
3
15
22
4
1
45
$325,000 $350,000
6
9
21
9
1
46
$350,000 $375,000
9
8
8
3
1
29
$375,000 $400,000
8
3
7
5
23
$400,000 $425,000
1
3
12
5
21
$425,000 $450,000
5
1
6
$450,000
6
18
7
31
Total
30 167
166
61
5
1
430
Detached Home Sales

$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000
Total
2010
Studio/
4
39
289
80
18
1
1
432
3
7
144
86
9
3
1
1
254
1
9
135
94
24
4
1
1
269
1
2
89
91
12
7
1
1
204
1
58
39
20
2
1
1
122
1
2
35
38
16
3
3
98
2
40
31
18
1
92
1
19
27
9
4
1
61
1
14
8
7
2
32
15
17
8
2
42
1
11
16
4
1
33
2
15
17
3
37
1
5
11
4
1
22
7
14
2
23
2
2
1
5
4
1
39
68
40
5
1
1 159
17
66
917
639
195
34
9
7
1 1885
29
Table A-1
Annual Home Sales
2008 to 2010
2010
Total Home Sales

$100,000
$100,000 $125,000
$125,000 $150,000
$150,000 $175,000
$175,000 $200,000
$200,000 $225,000
$225,000 $250,000
$250,000 $275,000
$275,000 $300,000
$300,000 $325,000
$325,000 $350,000
$350,000 $375,000
$375,000 $400,000
$400,000 $425,000
$425,000 $450,000
$450,000
Total
Studio/
6
46
301
94
18
0
1
1
0 467
3
13
146
86
10
3
1
1
0 263
1
18
140
95
24
4
1
1
0 284
1
14
92
92
12
7
1
1
0 220
1
21
64
40
20
3
1
1
0 151
1
26
40
39
16
3
3
0
0 128
1
13
48
33
19
0
0
1
0 115
0
20
31
30
9
4
1
0
0
95
0
15
34
12
7
2
0
0
0
70
3
15
37
21
9
2
0
0
0
87
7
9
32
25
5
1
0
0
0
79
9
10
23
20
4
0
0
0
0
66
9
3
12
16
4
1
0
0
0
45
1
3
19
19
2
0
0
0
0
44
0
0
7
3
1
0
0
0
0
11
4
7
57
75
40
5
0
1
1 190
47 233 1083
700
200
35
9
7
1 2315
30

DRA Study 05-20-2011 Single Family PL Demand 35pgs Oak R SFCredit Final 052011 Reduced PDF

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Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand

City of Oakland Community

David Paul Rosen & Associates

3941 Hendrix Street

B. Methodology and Data Sources ..............................................8

Maximum Affordable Home Price ..........................................9

D. Affordable Home Sales Volume............................................14

Low and Moderate Income Single-Family Purchase Loan

Appendix A: Dataquick Home Sales Data

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

March 20, 2011

Table 1: Summary of Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan

Maximum Affordable Home Price by Household Size,

Table 5: Maximum Affordable Home Price Calculation, Oakland

Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Price

Table 9: Annual Oakland CD District Home Sales by Unit

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

March 20, 2011

Table 11: Estimated Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand by Low

Chart 1: U.S. Single-Family Purchase Loan Volume, 2001 to

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

March 20, 2011

Single-Family Credit Demand Analysis

March 20, 2011

of Oaklands seven CD Districts, approximated by zip codes. DRA multiplied the

Maximum Affordable Home Price

Number of Home Sales in

Total Purchase Mortgage Loan

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

Single-Family Credit Demand Analysis

March 20, 2011

2010 data through the third quarter.

Local trends in single-family purchase lending in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

MSA includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

MSA includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

B. Methodology and Data Sources

Single-Family Credit Demand Analysis

March 20, 2011

Single-Family Home Sales Data and Listings

C. Maximum Affordable Home Price

FHA financing, with a loan-to-value ratio of 96.5% and a 3.5% downpayment;

Conventional financing, assuming a loan-to-value ratio of 90% and a 10%

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

Principal, Interest, Taxes and

Loan to Value Ratio

Property Tax Rate

Mortgage Interest Rate (Fixed)4

Monthly Property Insurance

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis

May 20, 2011

Low Income Households

Moderate Income Households

Single-Family Purchase Loan Demand Analysis