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Calculus
Leonid Kogan
MIT, Sloan
Review: Part I
1 / 15
Discrete Models
EPt
T
X
u
Du = EQ
t
t
u =t +1
T
X
Bt
u =t +1
Bu
Du
t rt = t t
Review: Part I
2 / 15
Problem
3
4
Review: Part I
3 / 15
Problem
A firm is considering a new project. Cash flows form an infinite stream
according to the distribution
Ct = a + brtM + t
rtM : market returns, IID, N(M , 2M ).
t : idiosyncratic shock, IID, N(0, 2 ).
t +1
2
r M M
= exp rf M M t
M
t
2
exp(rf ) 1 is the one-period risk-free rate.
1
2
Review: Part I
4 / 15
Stochastic Calculus
Brownian motion, basic properties (IID Gaussian increments, continuous
trajectories, nowhere differentiable).
Quadratic variation. [Z ]T = T . Heuristically,
(dZt )2 = dt ,
Stochastic integral:
RT
0
dZt dt = o(dt )
Itos lemma:
df (t , Xt ) =
f (t , Xt )
f (t , Xt )
1 2 f (t , Xt )
dt +
dXt +
(dXt )2
t
Xt
2 Xt2
f
f
f
dt +
dXt +
dYt +
t
Xt
Yt
1 2 f
1 2 f
2 f
2
2
(
dX
)
+
(
dY
)
+
dXt dYt
t
t
2 Xt2
2 Yt2
Xt Yt
Review: Part I
5 / 15
Black-Scholes Model
Arbitrage-free pricing of options by replication.
European option with payoff H (ST ).
Replicating portfolio delta is
t =
f (t , St )
St
f (t , S )
f (t , S ) 1 2 2 2 f (t , S )
=0
+ rS
+ S
2
S 2
t
S
with the boundary condition f (T , S ) = H (S ).
r f (t , S ) +
Review: Part I
6 / 15
Problem
Your colleagues have developed a term structure model that they intend to
use for pricing of interest-rate sensitive securities. Their model is of the
following form: they fit the shape of the term structure using a parsimonious
closed-form description, and then describe the evolution of necessary
parameters. For example, one specification of the bond yields y is
yt = a +
xt
b+
dxt = (xt x ) dt + dZt
You suspect that this model implies arbitrage opportunities. How can you
convince your colleagues that this is the case?
Review: Part I
7 / 15
Solution
We want to show inconsistencies in returns on zero-coupon bonds of different maturities that lead to arbitrage.
Consider prices of bonds maturing at different dates. For maturity T ,
(T t )
xt
b + (T t )
a+
(b +
)2
xt +
1
(xt x ) +
b+
2
b+
2
!
2
dt
b+
dZt
To avoid arbitrage, expected excess returns on bonds of different maturity have to satisfy a single-factor pricing
relation:
Risk Premium() = t
t
where
t is the diffusion coefficient of bond returns with maturity .
Interest rate is rt = yt0 = a + b1 xt , so our computation above yields
Risk Premium() =
(b +
)2
1
xt +
(xt x ) +
b
b+
2
b+
2
Risk premia implied by the model do not have a one-factor structure, and therefore one can construct an
explicit arbitrage trade.
c Leonid Kogan ( MIT, Sloan )
Review: Part I
8 / 15
Solution
Consider two bonds with risk premia Risk Premiumi ,t , i = 1, 2 and diffusion
coefficients of returns i ,t . Assume that the risk premia do not have a
one-factor structure, and therefore we can find two bonds such that
Risk Premium1,t
1,t
>
Risk Premium2,t
2,t
1
1
Construct a portfolio with $1 total value,
1,t dollars in bond 1, 2,t dollars
in bond 2 and the rest in the short-term risk-free asset. The risk premium on
this portfolio is
Risk Premium1,t
1,t
Risk Premium2,t
2,t
>0
This is arbitrage, since the portfolio has no risk, and such risk-free excess
returns can be generated at all times.
Review: Part I
9 / 15
Review: Part I
10 / 15
Risk-Neutral Pricing
General pricing formula
ZT
exp
Pt = EQ
t
rs ds HT
t
dSt
St
rt dt =
EPt
Review: Part I
dSt
St
EQ
t
dSt
St
11 / 15
Problem
Suppose that uncertainty in the model is described by two independent
Brownian motions, Z1,t and Z2,t . Assume that there exists one risky asset,
paying no dividends, following the process
dSt
= (Xt ) dt + dZ1,t
St
where
dXt = Xt dt + dZ2,t
The risk-free interest rate is constant at r .
1
2
3
Review: Part I
12 / 15
f (t , r )
f (t , r ) 1 2 2 f (t , r )
(r r )
+
= rf (t , r )
t
r
2
r 2
with the boundary condition
f (T , r ) = 1
Expected bond returns satisfy
EPt
c Leonid Kogan ( MIT, Sloan )
dP (t , T )
P (t , T )
= (rt + Pt t ) dt
Review: Part I
13 / 15
Problem
Suppose that, under P, the price of a stock paying no dividends follows
dSt
= (St ) dt + (St ) dZt
St
Assume that the SPD in this market satisfies
d t
t
1
2
= r dt t dZt
Review: Part I
14 / 15
Review: Part I
15 / 15
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