Friday, 12 September 2014

Daily Coal Indices

Product

Week TD

Daily % Ch

Month TD

Daily % Ch

Best Index Bid

Best Index Offer

NEWC

66.07

-0.06 %

66.76

-0.03 %

66.25

66.00

DES ARA

75.77

0.11 %

75.99

0.05 %

76.25

75.45

RB

67.74

-0.03 %

67.97

-0.01 %

68.10

69.00

Market Overview

The coal market ended the week in tame fashion as reasonable initial liquidity petered out post lunchtime
London time. In the morning session we saw an early few trades with Oct RB1 trading lower to $67.25
whilst on the NEWC we saw Dec and Oct trade at $65.25 and $66.25 respectively. The DES market also
saw some action as Oct traded at $76.50 for the third day running. On the paper market Wesaw marginal
gains across the board as values ticked higher through the morning. Prompt contracts such as Q414
gained ~$0.20 across the three main hubs whilst the Cal15 contract saw a small $0.10 gain on API#2
whilst the FOB markets pushed higher by ~$0.30. Elsewhere, Oct'14 Brent weakened further, dropping by
another $1 to sit at ~$97/bbl near close of play.

From the Asian Desk

NEWC paper markets were marginally higher shortly after opening in Europe. In the physical market,

Oct'14 NEWC was sold at $66.25/mt, higher by $0.25/mt on yesterday, while Dec'14 was sold at
$65.25/mt, $0.75/mt below where the contract traded late yesterday, the market on the follow was bid at
$65.25/mt and offered at $66.25/mt. Bids in the CFR market retreated today, the Oct-arrival market was
bid at $67.00/mt and offered at $67.70/mt. The vessel queue at PWCS currently stands at 28, while the
turnaround time is at 8.1 days.

globalCOAL Trades this Week

Origin

Delivery
Point

Add.Terms

ACPRSU

Ams/Rot

EFP

Product

Expiry

Price

Volume

08/09/2014

SWAP NEWC Index

Oct'14

$ 66.35

5,000

08/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Oct'14

$ 76.75

50,000

09/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Nov'14

$ 66.00

25,000

EFP

09/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Dec'14

$ 66.50

75,000

ND

09/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Nov'14

$ 75.00

50,000

09/09/2014

SWAP NEWC Index

Q4'14

$ 66.25

15,000

09/09/2014

SWAP NEWC Index

Oct'14

$ 66.00

5,000

09/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Nov'14

$ 66.10

25,000

09/09/2014

Phys RB1

Oct'14

$ 67.50

50,000

ACPRS

Rott

09/09/2014

Phys RB1

Oct'14

$ 67.40

75,000

09/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Dec'14

$ 66.50

25,000

09/09/2014

SWAP NEWC Index

2015

$ 70.00

60,000

09/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Dec'14

$ 66.00

25,000

09/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Oct'14

$ 76.25

50,000

ACPRSU

Ams/Rot

EFP

09/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Nov'14

$ 74.75

50,000

ACPRSU

Ams/Rot

EFP

10/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Oct'14

$ 66.25

25,000

10/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Oct'14

$ 76.50

50,000

10/09/2014

Phys RB1

Oct'14

$ 67.85

50,000

11/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Oct'14

$ 66.00

25,000

EFP

11/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Nov'14

$ 65.05

25,000

EFP

11/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Nov'14

$ 74.60

50,000

ACPRSU

Rott

11/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Oct'14

$ 76.50

50,000

ACPRSU

Ams/Rot

EFP

ACPRSU

Ams/Rot

EFP

EFP

11/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Dec'14

$ 75.25

50,000

ACPRSU

Rott

11/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Dec'14

$ 66.00

25,000

12/09/2014

Phys RB1

Oct'14

$ 67.25

50,000

12/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Dec'14

$ 65.25

25,000

EFP

12/09/2014

Phys NEWC (FOB

Newcastle)

Oct'14

$ 66.25

25,000

EFP

12/09/2014

Phys ARA (DES)

Oct'14

$ 76.50

50,000

EFP

ACPRSU

Ams/Rot

EFP

Recent Coal Indices

Weekly

15
Aug

22
Aug

29
Aug

05 Sep

12 Sep

NEWC

69.88

69.27

69.69

67.45

66.07

DES ARA

77.99

77.13

77.18

76.20

75.77

RB

72.47

69.68

69.93

68.19

67.74

globalCOAL Indices: Last 3 months

(US$)

NEWC

DES ARA

RB

Monthly

Apr 14

May
14

Jun 14

Jul 14

Aug
14

NEWC

73.37

73.88

71.91

69.20

69.49

DES ARA

76.94

75.12

72.86

73.77

77.23

RB

75.51

75.84

74.18

71.37

71.32

globalCOAL Weekly Indices: Last 12 Months

NEWC

Coal Forward Prices

Representing best bids / best offers on the globalCOAL Platform Between 00:00 and 18:00 Local London Time

DES ARA

RB

PHYS NEWC

PHYS RB

PHYS DES ARA

PHYS DAP ARA

Bid

Offer

Mid

Bid

Offer

Mid

Bid

Offer

Mid

Oct'14

66.35

67.50

76.50

76.75

76.63

Nov'14

65.25

66.00

65.63

68.10

69.00

68.55

76.00

75.45

75.72

Dec'14

65.35

66.25

65.80

71.00

75.00

76.00

75.50

Jan'15

69.00

80.00

Q1'15

2015

67.00

71.75

69.38

71.25

Bid

Offer

Mid

PHYS NEWC INDEX

PHYS API#4 INDEX

PHYS API#2 INDEX

(DES)

Phys API#2 INDEX

(DAP)

Bid

Bid

Offer

Mid

Bid

Offer

Mid

Bid

-3.00

0.00

-1.50

0.25

Offer

Mid

Nov'14

Dec'14

-1.00

-3.00

0.00

-1.50

Q1'15

-0.90

-0.75

Offer

Mid

Q2'15

2015

-0.85

0.50

0.10

globalCOAL Physical Curve: Fixed Price

Phys NEWC

Phys ARA
(DES)

Phys RB

Sep'14

65.45

75.00

68.05

Oct'14

66.40

76.50

67.60

Nov'14

65.50

76.05

68.35

Dec'14

65.40

75.45

68.65

Q4'14

65.75

76.00

68.20

Q1'15

67.90

76.60

70.80

Q2'15

68.75

77.05

71.45

Q3'15

70.15

78.35

72.70

Cal-15

69.65

77.90

72.30

Closing Physical Curves: Fixed

Price

Phys NEWC

Phys ARA
(DES)

Phys RB1

Previous day

Cal-16

Phys NEWC

Phys ARA
(DES)

Phys RB

73.85

82.05

76.05

globalCOAL Physical Curve: Index-Linked

Phys NEWC
Index

Phys API#2
Index (DES)

Phys API#4
Index

Sep'14

-0.50

-0.75

0.00

Oct'14

0.45

1.40

-1.20

Nov'14

-1.00

0.80

-1.00

Dec'14

-1.65

0.05

-1.25

Q4'14

-0.75

0.75

-1.15

Q1'15

-0.80

0.40

-0.65

Q2'15

-0.40

0.25

-0.35

Closing Physical Curves: IndexLinked

Phys NEWC
Index

Phys API2# Index

(DES)

Phys API#4
Index

Previous day

Phys NEWC
Index

Phys API#2
Index (DES)

Phys API#4
Index

Q3'15

-0.25

0.15

-0.25

Cal-15

-0.35

0.20

-0.30

Cal-16

0.00

0.50

0.00

Swap NEWC Closing Curve

Bid

Offer

Mid

Change

Sep'14

65.70

66.20

65.95

-0.15

Oct'14

65.70

66.20

65.95

-0.10

Nov'14

66.25

66.75

66.50

0.00

Dec'14

66.80

67.30

67.05

0.30

Q4'14

66.25

66.75

66.50

0.00

Q1'15

68.45

68.95

68.70

0.20

Swap NEWC Closing Curve (MidPoint)

Previous day

Bid

Offer

Mid

Change

Q2'15

68.90

69.40

69.15

0.05

Q3'15

70.15

70.65

70.40

0.35

Cal-15

69.75

70.25

70.00

0.35

Cal-16

73.60

74.10

73.85

0.05

Cal-17

77.10

77.60

77.35

0.05

Cal-18

80.00

80.50

80.25

0.05

Freight Forward Prices

RB - Rott

Bol - Rott

C5

Bid

Offer

Mid

Bid

Offer

Mid

Bid

Offer

Mid

Sep 14

10.90

11.40

11.15

10.20

10.70

10.45

8.75

9.25

9.00

Oct 14

11.60

12.10

11.85

11.25

11.75

11.50

9.60

10.10

9.85

Nov 14

11.90

12.40

12.15

12.40

12.90

12.65

10.70

11.20

10.95

Q4 14

11.65

12.15

11.90

12.15

12.65

12.40

10.20

10.70

10.45

Q1 15

9.35

9.85

9.60

10.40

10.90

10.65

8.20

8.70

8.45

Q2 15

9.70

10.20

9.95

10.90

11.40

11.15

8.75

9.25

9.00

Cal 15

10.40

10.90

10.65

11.95

12.45

12.20

9.85

10.35

10.10

Cal 16

10.00

10.50

10.25

11.60

12.10

11.85

9.75

10.25

10.00

Cal 17

9.85

10.35

10.10

11.50

12.00

11.75

9.50

10.00

9.75

Source: SSY (Capesize Coal FFA Market Prices)

PWCS Vessel Queue

Ships Off Port

Av. Queue Days

03 Sep

25

6.70

04 Sep

27

7.10

05 Sep

30

8.00

08 Sep

30

7.50

Ships Waiting Off Port at PWCS

Ships Off Port

Av. Queue Days

09 Sep

32

7.50

10 Sep

29

7.80

11 Sep

29

8.00

12 Sep

28

8.10

Source: HVCCC

Energy Market Data

Unit

Price

US$ / GJ
Equiv

US$ / MMBtu

US$ / MWh Equiv

DES ARA (1)

US$ / mt

75.77

3.02

3.18

10.87

RB (1) + PM Freight RB-Rott

(2)

US$ / mt

78.89

3.14

3.31

11.31

NBP Gas - Front Month (3)

p / th

11.15

1.71

1.81

6.16

TTF Gas PM (3)

p / th

11.15

1.71

1.81

6.16

ICE Gas Oil PM (3)

US$ / mt

11.15

0.26

0.27

0.91

ICE Brent PM (3)

US$ /barrel

11.15

1.82

1.92

6.56

UK Baseload Power PM (3)

GBP /
MWh

11.15

5.02

5.29

18.06

German Baseload Power PM

(3)

EUR /
MWh

11.15

4.02

4.24

14.48

EUA Spot (3)

EUR / t

11.15

View sources and notes

UK Clean Power Spread Prices

UK Clean Dark Spread

View methodology

UK Clean Spark Spread

ICE Futures Oil and Gas Daily Settlement Prices PM

PM NBP Gas Futures (p / th)

Share Prices and Exchange Rates

Resource Sector Share Prices

Today

Last
Week

%Ch

Anglo American Limited

(p)

1,483.00

1,564.50

-5.21

BHP Billiton (p)

1,848.50

1,896.50

-2.53

PM Brent Futures (US$ / barrel)

Peabody ($)

14.39

15.10

-4.73

Rio Tinto (p)

3,205.00

3,221.00

-0.50

Xstrata (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Adaro Energy Tbk (IDR)

1,305.00

1,355.00

-3.69

Bumi Resources Tbk

(IDR)

185.00

190.00

-2.63

China Coal Energy

(CNY)

0.00

0.00

0.00

China Shenhua Energy

(HKD)

22.60

23.45

-3.62

CONSOL Energy ($)

39.05

39.93

-2.20

Source: Yahoo Finance