Table of Contents

Chapter I
The Problem and its Background
Background and Purpose of the study...

Theoretical Framework.

10

Conceptual Framework.

12

Objective of the Study...

12

Scope and Limitation.

14

Definition of Terms..

14

Notes

16

Chapter II
Research Methodology
Research Design

17

Setting of the Study...

18

Subject of the Study..

18

Source of Data

19

Procedure of the Study.

19

THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

This chapter presents the background and purpose of the study,
theoretical and conceptual framework, objective of the study, scope and limitation
of the study, assumptions and definition of terms.

Background and Purpose of the Study

Mathematics is indeed a dynamic and challenging subject. Life without it is
not interesting. One cannot see and enjoy the beauty lines, the wide coverage of
the space, the information if the planes, and the application of mathematical
problem will not be encountered.
Mathematical is like a chameleon. It changes color from season to
season, from generation to generation, one understanding to another, from
culture to culture so as to be relevant to the times. Like the proverbial lizard
mathematics protects itself to hostile environment and therefore modifies its foal
and objective.

Mathematics deals with the orderly study of structure and patterns of

abstract entities. Normally, the objects about which people have an intuitive
notion of what a number is, what a line in three-dimensional space is, and what
the concept of probability is.
Furthermore, Mathematics is commonly encountered in association and
interaction with astronomy, physics and other branches of natural sciences, and it
is also attracted to humanities. Because of its being obligatory and being
applicable to the matter at hand, the Philippine Constitution, Article XIV Section
10 states:
Science and technology are essential to give priority to research
and Developments, inventions, innovations, and their utilization, and to
science and technology, education, training and services. It shall support
indigenous, appropriate self-reliant, scientific and technological
capabilities and their application to the countrys productive system and
nation life.
With the rapid growth of mathematics, today it has been divided into two
classification; one is pure and the other is applied Mathematics. Pure
mathematics deals

with the study of the abstract properties of mathematical

quantities and system without regard to application.

Science and technology has played a major role in mans quest for quality
of life. This is truly applicable for its purpose and objective to develop creativity in
application of mathematics in mans life. It has brought about several changes
that created a great impact on the society. Science and Technology serves as an
instrument to help the national development and progress; as a result, the
government gives importance to the development of research, invention,

innovation, and their usefulness to science and technology, education, training

and services. That was the main reason why the researches pursued this study
to provide an optimum understanding in application of mathematics using
creativity of solving and interpreting mathematical concepts using analytical,
scientific, numeric and verbal reasoning.
However, student are familiar with this statement that mathematics is the
queen of all sciences but some of the teachers failed to teach how to use
mathematics in everyday life. Consequently many of the mathematics classes
lack continuity of lessons particularly when final term arrives. And one of those
lessons is the application of probability distributions.
Many students are familiar with this topic, but, upon going deeper into
those lessons, complications and confusions arise. Further, they are aware that it
exist but they dont know how to useful the application could be.
According, to the Principles and Standards for school
mathematics (NCTM2000) stated that, student must learn
mathematics with understanding, actively building new knowledge
from experience prior knowledge. Learning the basics is
important, however students who memorized facts on procedures
without understanding. Often are not sure when or how to use what
they know. In contrast, conceptual understanding enables student
to deal with novel problems and setting. They can solve problems
that they have not encountered before.
Moreover, learning with understanding also help students become fast
learners. Good foundation is also a need, when challenged with appropriate
chosen task, students become confident in their ability to tackle difficult problem.
They tried to figure it out on their own, have flexibility in expanding mathematical
ideas, and are also willing and able to presence when tasks are challenging.
4

Therefore, in this study the researchers wanted to share to all students some of
their knowledge in mathematics, and the application of Weibull distribution to
some basic necessity of life that will help broaden and deepen the understanding
of students.
T
The researchers then derived a formula from the equation

C1 +C 2

.
This comes from the estimation formula of the consumption of Incandescent

Bulbs and the derivation formula made by the researchers is then

2=

e1
F

e 1 Is the assumed life span made by the manufacturers of incandescent bulbs f

is the number factors that researchers considered in conducting the study

e2

is the estimated life span of the selected incandescent bulb

Moreover Probabilistic means a theory that certainly is impossible especially in
the Physical and Social sciences and that probability suffices to govern beliefs
and actions. Likewise, researchers wanted to enlighten the readers sleeping
mind that any situation has failure. A new bought television cannot be considered
as a component without failure, because from the time it has been bought there
is an instant failure.
The important and fascinating subject of probability began in the 17 th
century through efforts of such mathematicians as Fermat and Pascal to answer

questions concerning games of chance. It was not until the 20 th century that a
rigorous mathematical theory based on axioms, definitions and theorem where
developed. As time progressed, probability theory found its way into many
application, not only in engineering, science and mathematics but in fields
ranging from actuarial science, agriculture and business to medicine and
psychology. In many instances the applications themselves contributed to the
further development of the theory.
Moreover, in the unstoppable increase of technology rates in the
Philippines, most of the Filipinos, have different choices of technologies to
depend with different consumers especially mothers have no basis in choosing
some product of technologies, they just only depend that those products are
good, based on how the advertisement project it. Different factors affect their
choices. It may be on their favorite actor or actress who endorsed the product,
the convincing power of their neighbors uses it. The researchers came up with
this study because; one fundamental reason is to give information to different
consumers on incandescent light to choose for better, if not best usage according
to their period life or expected life.
Moreover, the world depends on light. Light is given off as the result of
atoms within a substance being given energy. It is a form of energy, just like heat
and sound. Light energy is constantly given off from hot objects, so we see light
when things get burn. Light comes from atoms. It is produced by atoms that have
gained energy either by absorbing light from another source or by being struck by
other particles. An atom with such extra energy is said to be excited. Ordinarily,

an atoms stays excited only briefly. It de-excites by giving up its extra energy, or it
can emit light. The light then carries away the extra energy.
Ideas about light go back thousands of years ago. A Greek engineer
named Hero wrote a book about mirrors and light in the first century A.D. He
believed that light is a kind of feeler or antenna sent out by the eyes to detect
the things we see. Around 900 years later an Arabian physicist figured out that
light comes from one source, such as the sun, and that everything we see
reflects light from the source of our eyes. The earliest experiments of electric light
were made in the early 1800s by a British chemist Sir Humphrey Davy, who
created a fine platinum wire incandescent in air by passing a current through it.
He also created electric arcs. In 1878 and 1879 British inventor Joseph Swan
and American inventor Thomas Edison simultaneously developed the carbon
filament lamp. Improved vacuum pumps and the increased availability of
electricity made these lamps a success. The American pioneer in electrical
engineering, Charles Francis Brush, produced the first commercially successful
arc lamp in 1878.
Further, different mothers experienced great trouble because of the
incandescent bulbs they bought and used. These bulbs tend to give light from the
first time they bought it, in the couple of days these incandescent bulbs failed to
function. And the question is why this happening is?
This is the main question that bumped into the minds of the researchers
so they became too much interested in the topic they choose.

Light is used as a new channel within the body. It has several meanings
and each context has its own idea or concept of the light. When light is not
present, the whole world will look like a sad face, because there would be
darkness so the people could hardly do the work; when light is absent different
people will be affected. As we go in every encounter of life, the need for light
becomes one of the basic necessities. That is why there are different
replacements for the light of the sun, because when evening comes, darkness
prevails and incandescent bulb will give the light in every activity being done,
thus importance of lights to human being is undeniable.
Moreover, this problem is not one of the single most important policy
challenge because of the effect cannot directly notice, but later on it can be one
of the problems encountered in the Philippines.
Thus, researchers want to have the readers the knowledge on how to
avoid this problem just like bites of mosquito ignored at first attack, but later on
have difficulty in medication, in this study the researchers wanted to emphasize,
that prevention is better than cure. Therefore, the researchers wanted to
investigate the kind of incandescent bulb that possesses best quality of life length
or span.
Life span of incandescent bulb depends on the usage of the consumers.
Once the incandescent bulb unwisely used there is a tendency that their
assumed life span will not be reached. Once a consumers arrived to his/or her
choice of brand of incandescent bulb, he should be responsible in taking good
care of them. On the other hand, the researchers considered the factors that

affects the life span of incandescent bulb, incandescent bulb are considered as
one of the products that are vulnerable because there are different factors that
make the lifespan shorter. The more the factors that affect it, the more the service
of the selected incandescent bulb fails.
In addition to this study, Singpurwalla and Wilson said that In reliability
and biometry, it is common practice to choose a failure model by first assessing
the failure rate function subjectivity and then invoking the well-known
exponentiation formula. The derivation of this formula is based on the
assumption that the underlying failure distribution can be absolutely continuous.
This points out that the absolute continuity may fail when the failure rate is
assessed conditionally, and in particular, when it is conditioned on certain types
of covariates called internal covariates.
In reliability and biometry, the researchers used a failure model to identify
such formula which is being derived subjectively. It has been shown that there is
really a continuous failure when it is being assessed conditionally. In connection
to the study, the researchers used an incandescent bulb to test its reliability,
which later on became the Probabilistic Model of the lifespan of the selected
lights used in the study.
Furthermore, according to Willoughby, mathematical problem solving
involves using mathematical reasoning to achieve a desire goal in spite of
obstacle. The most effective method of mathematical problem solving is always
relating to practice in solving problems and in communicating with others about
mathematical problems.

In relating this study, the researchers believed that anything related to real
situation shall accompany such application of mathematics. One can easily solve
any mathematical problem when he/she is aware of its usefulness and not just
jumping into conclusions.
Meanwhile, there are two uses of Probability Theory. Both involve
underlying probabilistic, but he first hypothesize a model and then uses it for
practical purpose, whereas, the second deals with the more basic question of
whether or not the hypothesized model is in fact a correct one.
The researchers emphasized the problem of choosing the correct model
which is the second usage of probability theory and this use reverse the
inferential procedure just describe. Moreover, a statistical inference is an
application which uses sample data that could draw inferences concerning the
nature of the underlying probabilistic mechanism.
Shanfeng Zhu, Yasushi Okuno, GozohTsujimoto and Hiroshi Mamitsuka,
in their study Application of the new Probabilistic Model for Mining implicit
Associate Cancer Genes from OMIM and Medicine, mentioned their particular
focus which is placed on cancer gene relation, since some types of cancer are
inherited. Their study aimed to find implicit associated cancer-genes from
biomedical databases including the literature database. Further, experiment
showed that MAM found new cancer-gene relation which are unknown in the
literature.
In the relation to the present study, the researchers focused on
Probabilistic Model which could estimate the lifespan of the selected

10

incandescent bulb thus, suggest the consumer what brand of incandescent bulb
has better quality, the researchers choose to study the application of Probabilistic
Model because the said model gives scientist and mathematicians much
information for explaining and controlling natural phenomena.
Moreover, solving mathematical problems is really confusing and difficult
to do even though formulas are given the steps are taken. The student fail to
follow the formulas because they lack focus on what to do therefore, they fail to
solve problems on their own because they dont know what to do. When student
are in the classroom, they say that they can do it, but when they try it by
themselves, they get stuck up. Different application of mathematics are needed
in every life, which is why student must practice applying mathematical concept
by heart
In addition, researchers wanted to encourage the student to pursue
exploring deep within the application of mathematics. Mathematics is not a
finished product; one should continue exploring deep within the subject because
you never know that what you have discovered might help the world in the future.
This study will not stop here because the researchers believe that the readers
continue studying the concept of this study and make and interesting one.
With this study, the researchers hoped to supplement and stimulate the
students curiosity about the lifespan of the incandescent bulb, as well as help
you estimate its life length by defining one aspect which is the failure rate. The
researchers provide the necessary examples for further understanding of the

11

readers, and for them to be easily affected to apply probabilistic model in their
very own lives

Theoretical Framework
In any learning process concerning students, certain theories and
philosophical basis are needed to attain knowledge needed for a certain goal. In
this regard, the study was based on Thorndikes Theory of Learning, it is also
known as Stimulus-response Theory, which explains that learning is a changing
reaction to situation more effectively. Reaction means thing can satisfy a
learners need. To learn effectively, the law of readiness is a degree of a craving
for a particular activity. It is a kind of state preparation to the work. The more
wants of the learners have, the more willing they will be.
People have various needs and the intensity of need is different from
person to person. Usually, desire to success in society or overcome difficulty
personally promotes a person to learning than organic need does. A person has
more readiness at scheduled activity or habitual activity by having ability.
Therefore, readiness can be develop for further achievement.
Learning takes place through the reorganization of old terms permitting
one of grasp significant relationship in the new problem. Where relationships are
perceive, the learners are said to have achieved insight in to the problem. This
means that the process of learning s unstoppable; it is continuous, depending
upon the response of the learners and how they accelerate in one situation
shifted to another situation.

12

In relation to the study, most of the students often rely on what was written
in the text, and their knowledge is stored only in their mind like a decoration.
However, if they develop critical thinking and understanding, as well as
combining and applying what they have learned, there is a possibility that they
will soon develop their own approaches and strategies to solve a certain
problem.
In this study the researchers also applied Reliability Theory which deals
with the probabilistic model that governs the behavior systems of components
and allow one to formulate optimum maintenance policies, including replacement
and repair of components, and to measure operating characteristics of the
system, such as the proportion of downtown, the expected life, and probability of
survival beyond a specified age.

Conceptual Framework
Base for the Independent-Dependent Variable Theory, the researchers
formulated the conceptual model of the study Probabilistic Model on the
Lifespan of Incandescent Bulbs.
The theory explains two stages namely; the independent and the
dependent.
The independent box refers to the lifespan of the selected incandescent
bulbs which served as the basis and the reference of the researchers. These
lifespans helped clarify the definitions and basis for the study.

13

The dependent box refers to the application of the Probabilistic Model

derived from the formula of the estimated of the consumption of incandescent
bulbs.
The two boxes are connected with an arrow which means that the two
variables are related to each other in a way that the solution to the lifespan of
incandescent bulbs depends on the probabilistic model.
Objective of the Study
The main purpose of this study aims to:
1. Gather concepts, analyze and interpret the lifespan of the incandescent
bulb.
2. Develop a model to determine the lifespan of the incandescent bulbs.

14

INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Probabilistic Model that will
estimate the Life Span of
Incandescent Bulbs.

Life Span

GE
Panasonic
Philips
Firefly
Incandescent
bulb(tiangge)

Figure 1.
A Conceptual Framework
Probabilistic Model on the Life Span
Of the Selected Incandescent Bulbs

Scope and Limitation

The main purpose of this study was to estimate the lifespan of the
selected incandescent bulbs, and develop the probabilistic model to use for
estimation of the lifespan of incandescent bulbs.
The study was conducted at the University of Rizal System Morong
Campus during the school year 2015-2016.
The researchers dealt with the estimation of the lifespan of selected
incandescent bulbs by deriving a formula from the estimation of the consumption
of incandescent bulbs and this formula served as the probabilistic model which
estimated the lifespan of incandescent bulbs. The researchers selected
15

incandescent bulbs which included G.E, Panasonic, Philips, Firefly and the light
bought from tiangge. The expected lifespans of these incandescent bulbs given
by the manufacturers are used as the data of the researchers in conducting the
study.
e
By using the researchers formula

( 2=

e1
)
F

we can get the estimated life

span if incandescent bulbs

Definition of Terms
For further understanding of the terms, the following terms are defined
conceptually or operationally:
Probabilistic Theory, it is a theory that certainly is impossible especially in
the physical and social sciences and that probability suffices to govern beliefs
and action.
Life Span, it is a component in which a filament is heated to
incandescence by an electric current.
Incandescent Bulb, it is a component in which a filament a heated to
incandescence by an electric current
Probabilistic Model, it is a situation or model where there are multiple
possible outcomes each having varying degrees of certainly or uncertainly of its
occurrence. The terms is often taken to be synonymous with stochastic but,
strictly speaking, stochastic conveys the idea of (actual or apparent) randomness
whereas probabilistic is directly related to probabilities and therefore, is only

16

indirectly associated with randomness. Thus, it might be more accurate to

describe a natural event or process as stochastic and to describe its
mathematical analysis (and its consequences) as probabilistic.

17

NOTES
Downing, Douglas PhD Dictionary of Mathematics Terms, NP
Jose N Nolledo. The Constitution of the Philippines (Metro Manila National
Bookstore). 1987
Grolier Academic Encyclopedia. 1990 p.222
http://www.mathforum.org/ntcm.standard.2000
Introduction to Probability Theory and Application, RTPI Morong, Rizal
Light World Book Encyclopedia, 1999
W. Answers.com/topic/failure-rate
http:en.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Willoughby
wwww.yahoo.com
http://www.la.press.com/application-of-a-new-probabilistic-model-formining-implicit-associate-a92
Jocelyn D Abella et.al, construct and Validation of Learning Materials in
Analtic Geometry, Unpublished Graduated Thesis, URS-Morong 2002 pg.10
http://www.yahoo.com
W. Answer.com/topic/incandescent bulbs
W. Answer.com/topic/statistical model

18

Chapter II
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This chapter presents the research design, setting, subjects, and source
of data and procedure of the study.

Research Design
The researchers used the qualitative type of research. This type of
research is one of the first forms of social studies, but in the 1950s and 1960s
as qualitative science reached its peak of popularity it was diminished in
importance and began to regain recognition only in the 1970s. Qualitative
research is also highly useful in policy and evaluation research, where
understanding why and how certain outcomes where achieved is as important as
establishing what those outcomes were.
The researchers believed that this method will be more reliable to use in
this study Probabilistic Model on the Life Span of the Selected Incandescent
Bulbs. The researchers chose this type of research because it goes directly to
the particular setting in which the study focuses. This method allows the
researchers to explain, analyze and interpret the study precisely. This helped the
researchers find the needed information without surveying and go on a deeper
study in order to find solutions to the problems in the study. This greatly helped
the researchers to come up with the developed probabilistic model that would
help estimate the life span of the selected incandescent bulb.

19

Setting of the Study

The study was conducted at the University of Rizal System located at
Sumulong Street Morong, Rizal. This University is the center of human resource
development in the eastern part of Rizal.
The University has four (4) levels of Education; The Elementary, the
Secondary, the Tertiary and Graduate Levels of Education. The Tertiary level,
where College of Science belongs, offers Bachelor of Science in Mathematics.
The Tertiary level having the Institute of Arts and Sciences which offered,
Bachelor of Science in Mathematics.
Bachelor of Science in Mathematics aims to develop the mathematical
skills of the students from the fundamental up to the higher Math. There are two
(2) clubs in Mathematics in the institute of arts and sciences namely:
Mathematics Circle and Statistics Organization. This two (2) clubs go hand in
hand promoting the knowledge and understanding of Mathematics among the
students of the aforementioned college.

Subject of the Study

In order to determine the life span of the selected incandescent bulbs
mentioned above, the researchers used the Probabilistic Model as the focus of
the study. They used the information about the life span of the selected
Incandescent bulbs made by the manufacturers of incandescent bulb to be their
data in conducting the study. These incandescent bulb are the G.E. Incandescent

20

bulb,

Panasonic

incandescent

bulb,

Philips

Incandescent

bulb,

Firefly

Incandescent bulb and incandescent bulb that are bought at the tiangge. The
Probabilistic Model used by the researchers was derived from the formula of the
consumption of the incandescent bulbs.
However, the researchers wanted to know if the typical number of hours
(900) of the span of incandescent bulbs would be true to all selected
incandescent bulbs. The assumed life span given by the manufacturers of
incandescent bulb is used as the main source of data to estimate the life span of
the selected incandescent bulbs.

Source of Data
Since the study is a qualitative research, the needed data were gathered
from different reading materials such as books, encyclopedia, unpublished
materials, dictionaries, and details included in the study to gather more ideas and
information related to the study, the researchers also used the internet. The
expected life span of Incandescent bulbs were also used as the source of data.
The G.E incandescent bulbs and Panasonic incandescent bulbs expected life
span is gathered in the internet as well as the expected life span of Philips
incandescent bulbs, while the information in the Firefly Incandescent bulbs
expected life span of the incandescent bulb that were bought at the tiangge was
directly gathered from the people who engaged in selling incandescent bulbs.

21

Procedure of the Study

In conducting the study, the researchers followed several procedural
steps. The researchers prepared their research title, which was presented to the
instructor for recommendation and suggestion. After that, the researchers
gathered related literature, related studies and legal basis for the introduction.
Along with this, the researchers formulated a conceptual model based from the
gathered theoretical framework and conceptual framework. The rest of the
Chapter 1 was gathered also. Right after that, construction of the Chapter 2
followed.
As the process of the study went on, the researchers were able to gather,
analyze, interpret and then chose which specific problem to use as the center of
the study. The researchers considered 60 watts of incandescent bulbs so as to
be fair for the estimation of its life span. The researchers also gathered the prices
of the selected incandescent bulb for the information of the readers so as to fairly
compare the life span of the incandescent bulb and the prices of these light
bulbs.
Along with this, the researchers were able to finish discussing Chapter 3.
In Chapter 4, since the content related to Chapter 3, the researchers formulated
the conclusions and recommendations well, and the final oral defense followed.
Finally, the final revision was done and the thesis hard-bound copy was
accomplished.

22