Singapores Climate and Sea Level

Changes

The aim of this lecture is to understand Singapore sea

levels and climates in the past, present and future

Geology (plate tectonics)

has placed Singapore on
or near the equator for
the past 50 million years.
So it has experienced a
steady, hot, wet,
monsoonal climate for
the past 50 million years?

Past Climate Systems?

How do we know about climate systems in
the past?
We think we know a lot about the modern climate
systems and the effects we witness today.
However, if we want to know if the climate is changing
we need to know what it was like in the past.
How do we learn what the past climate was like?

Early human records

A record of past local environmental conditions is

preserved in early rock art. Rock paintings from Algeria
show that the region in Neolithic times was moist and
fertile, with abundant water and wildlife. This area is
now in a desert. >15,000 drawings and engravings record
the climatic changes, the animal migrations and the
evolution of human life on the edge of the Sahara since
6,000 B.C.

cc. W.V. Bailey

Tourism NT http://www.travelnt.com

Geomorphology
Geomorphology is the study of landforms, including
their origin and evolution, and the processes that shape
them.

Glacial end moraines, Bylot Island, Canada

A U shaped valley shows

that it was formed by a
glacier which has since
melted.

Studying of surface features such as valleys, mountains,

river beds, ancient dune and lake deposits can tell you
what the environment was like in the past.

Geological record

Fossils of plants and animals can

provide evidence of what the past
ecosystem was like: scallop = cool,
shallow marine

Drilling can recover rock layers that record

what conditions were like when the rock
was deposited: coal = swamp

Fossils show that during the Mesozoic era (250-65 Ma), as a result of
warming, the polar ice caps melted, Sea Level(SL) rose 70m. Tropical
trees were plentiful in Antarctica during this period, as were large
reptiles.

Ice cores
GISP2 ice core at 1837m depth with
visible annual layers. An ice core is a
core sample from the accumulation
of snow and ice over many years that
have recrystallized and have trapped
air bubbles from previous time periods.

Greenland Ice Sheet Project

38 years of snowfall~16,250 years ago

The chemistry of these ice cores, especially the presence of CO2 ,

methane, nitrous oxide, hydrogen and oxygen isotopes, provides

Scientists with a picture of the climate at the time.

Is the climate changing?

What is Climate Change?

Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's

global or regional climates over time, i.e. changes
in the variability or av state of the atmosphere over
time scales ranging from decades (30 yrs) to millions
of yrs
These changes can be caused by processes
internal to the Earth (e.g. volcanic eruptions of
CO2), external forces (e.g. variations in insolation
or, more recently, human activities).

Looking into the past 500 million years

The Earths current ice age is primarily caused by Antarctica drifting over
the S Pole 30 M yr. ago. As ice caps grew, SL dropped 130 m. At the same
time the Himalayas rose, increased snow cover = reflected more heat =
more cooling
Global temperature for
the last 500 million
years using oxygen
isotopes as a proxy
SP over Pangea

Currently we are in a
cold period of
glaciation, what if
these trends
continue..?

cc. Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Climate_Change_Rev_png

Past climates
Causes of ice ages: plate tectonics
The Earths current ice age is primarily caused by Antarctica drifting over the
South Pole 30 million years ago. This meant that a large area of the Earths
surface changed from being very low-albedo ocean to highly reflective ice and
snow.
The first small glaciers were formed in Antarctica perhaps as long ago as 40
million years. They expanded gradually until, about 20 million years ago, a
permanent ice sheet covered the whole Antarctic continent.

About 10 million years later, glaciers appeared on the high mountains of Alaska,
and about 3 million years ago, ice sheets developed on lower ground in high N lats.
Eventually the oceans lost enough heat that the Earths orbital parameters
started causing surges in ice formation. There are three orbital parameters:
eccentricity, precession and obliquity give the Milankovitch Cycles shown in
the next figure.

Orbital parameters: eccentricity,

precession and obliquity (tilt)

Milankovitch cycles: past 1,000,000 yrs

Predicts
cooling

Insolation

?
Temps rising

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Milankovitch_Variations.png

Causes of recent climate change: insolation

When these orbital effects are aligned, their effect is reinforced. From
three million years ago to about 800,000 years ago, the dominant
pattern of glaciation corresponded to the 41,000 year period of changes
in the Earths obliquity. Since then, a 100,000 year cycle has been
dominant.

Ice ages occur because the summer sun in the northern hemisphere
does not get hot enough to melt all the ice that accumulates over
winter. Ice has a much higher reflectivity than rocks or vegetation, and
so reflects more sunlight into space and the cooling is reinforced.
Eventually the orbital parameters change back and warming occurs.
Glacial periods tend to cool slowly and warm abruptly. Because the
Earths orbital parameters can be calculated, the amount of sunlight in
high northern latitudes can be calculated.

Past glaciations: Vostok ice core 400,000 yrs BP

Pre-industrial correlations between temperature, insolation, CO2, and CH4

Methane (CH4) has 20 x stronger green house effect than CO2
Global av temperature was 8 o C cooler at 18,000 yrs BP and 3o C warmer
Chicken or the egg?
at 135,000 BP and 320,000 BP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok_420ky_4curves_insolation.jpg

Vostock ice core temperature record versus

summer insolation, 150,000 yr BP
Last great interglacial, 130,000 yr BP: 3 o C warmer than present

Insolation

Warm

Temp
20,000 yr BP: 8oC colder

Insolation and temperatures match from 150,000 to 11,000 yrs BP

Insolation has dropped from 11,000 yrs BP till now yet temperatures
have stayed relatively constant. Why?
http://www.roperld.com/homosapienevents.htm

Roman
Warm
Age

Main fig. shows 8 records of local temperature variability on multicentennial scales and an average of these (thick dark line). Note the
lack of significance of the apparent warming in the last 100 years
compared to the previous 2,000 years of variation. This figure was prepared by Robert
A. Rohde from publicly available data. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

Global temperature for the past 1000 years

showing the hocky stick rise
0.8 o C rise
over 100 yr

Industrial
Revolution
started 1800
CO2 + CH4

cc. Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison_png

Global temperature for the last 150 years

The zero point on this
figure is the mean temperature from 1961-1990.
The results = a two step
increase of 0.8 o C up to
the year 2000

Based on measurements compiled by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley
Centre of the UK Meteorological Office.
cc. Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png

No warming since 1999?

UK Met Office, US Nat Ocean & Atmos Admin, NASA Goddard

2011

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=1151

Central England Temperatures: Cooling

Chart by Ed Hoskins, data source: UK Met Office

Very cold

Source: Easterling , D.R & Wehner, M.F. 2009. Is the climate warming or cooling. Geophysical
Research Letters 36, L08706. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810

Apparently, local temperatures decreased half a degree from 1948 to 1974,

rose 1.5 degrees between 1974 and 2012, fluctuating because of stronger El Nino and La Nina
years. What causes El Nino/La Nina years? Volcanic eruptions (SO2) cause global cooling.

1997 Super
El Nino Hotter, drier
1982/83
El Nino
El Chichon
eruptions

2012
Pinatubo
eruptions

1973/74
La Nina Cooler, wetter

Note the flat bumpy period between 1999 and 2012

http://app-stg.nccs.gov.sg/data/resources/docs/Documents/NCCS-2012.pdf?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

But during the 30 years 1980 2010 insolation has dropped

whilst world temperatures rose. Why? Greenhouse gases?

low

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Are-we-too-stupid.html

(as a difference from

the mean temperature
for the last 100 years)

Source: Leland McInnes, references in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Co2-temperature-plot.svg

800,000 years of historical CO2 and reconstructed temperature from Antarctic ice
cores. Some times, temperature rises before CO2 rises. Temperature rise (increased
insolation) releases CO2 dissolved in the oceans into the atmosphere = a positive
feed-back = greenhouse effect.
Take an open CO2 fizzy drink out of the fridge: as it warms up, it de-gasses more and
more. Put it back in the fridge and it stops fizzing: i.e. when insolation falls,
temperatures fall, CO2 is dissolved in the oceans, CO2 in the atmosphere falls (another
+ve feed-back) and climate cools.

Correspondence between
temperature and atmospheric CO2

http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%200503%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf

Global Energy Balance: complicated. What

is the effect of variable cloud cover?

http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/climate/global/past-present

Credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, 2007

Governmental Panels + Climatists

(in the majority)

If the CO2 level doubles (as it is on course to do by about 2070 to

2100), the climate models estimate the temperature increase due
to that extra CO2 will be about 1.1C 3 = 3.3C.
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/dr-david-evans-the-skeptics-case/

Climate Skeptics Anti-climatists

(in the minority)

More clouds reflect more heat = dampening

The skeptics view. If the CO2 level doubles, skeptics estimate that the
temp increase due to that extra CO2 will be about 1.1C 0.5 0.55C.
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/dr-david-evans-the-skeptics-case/

Lindzen (2001, 2009)

The Iris Effect

More
evaporation =
more water
vapour = more
clouds =
more reflected
insolation
= climate cooling

http://www.todayonline.com/
printedition/20120513/am/Sunday

CO2 over the past 1,200 years

Jan 2013 CO2 = 395.55 ppm

The Industrial and

Agricultural Revolutions
Fossil fuel (carbon
dioxide)
Aerosols (cooling)
Cement manufacture
(carbon dioxide)
Land use (carbon
dioxide)
Livestock (methane)

The hockey stick

Industrial Rev

Today
400

Temp and CO2 over the past 350,000 yrs

350

Image credit: Siegenthalter et al., 2005, Science

CO2 vs temperature over the past 600 Ma

Present day

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and av Global T the past 150

million years has been higher than the present day
http://www.naturalclimatechange.us/Open%20letter%20re%20AGW3-%20final,%20final-12-5.htm

After Scotese (2000) and Bernier (2001)

Future temperatures

Incr ~2 to 4 o C

Projections of future global average surface temperature for various

IPCC (2007) scenarios. The graph shows temperature changes (as
compared with the 1980-1999 average, which is used as the baseline)
for three scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1). Solid colored lines represent
"most likely" trends; shaded regions represent "probable ranges".
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/climate_future_CDcourses.html

(Courtesy of IPCC, 2007)

Future predictionsnext 100 yrs

The questions are: have we reached the lowest temperature of the natural cycle and
therefore the global warming we are experiencing is the normal warming part of the
cycle (the upward trend of the curve on the warming graph)? Or has human activity
significantly influenced the natural cycle, thereby causing the temperature to rise
prematurely?

Based on no
changes in
emissions
(business as
usual)
Singapore
would be ~3C
hotter on
average.
cc. Robert A. Rohde http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Predictions_Map_jpg

Prediction vs Reality

After: Hansen, J et al. 1988: Global climate change as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space
Studies 3D model. Journal of Geophysical Research 93, 9341-9364. doi: 10.1029/88/JD0031.

Temperature Predictions vs Reality

http://www.sciencebits.com/IPCC_nowarming

US National Climatic Data Centre NOOA

FAR: First Assessment Rept

Questions to be answered

How fast will the sea level rise?

How much warmer will it get?
When will the Arctic Ocean be ice-free?
Will the water cycle accelerate?
Are climate extremes increasing?
Will there be abrupt changes?
What was it like in the recent past, say 1-2 million years
ago when the Old Alluvium was deposited?
What was it like when the Young Alluvium (Kallang
Formation) was deposited 8,500 yrs BP?

Geology Map of Singapore

Lets look at the Old Alluvium

Tekong Fm

Pulau Tekong
s

Tekong
Fm
KEY

Tekong Fm

North

Recent alluvium (Kallang Fm)

and land-fill

Old Alluvium
Jurong Formation

10 km scale

Andesitic volcanics (v)

and sediments (s)
Granite

Geology after Lee and Zhou (2009)

Gabbro

Old Alluvium = sand and gravel deposits in old

rivers and estuaries

GRANITE

100-200 m
GRANITE

(Cai, 2012) http://www.srmeg.org.sg/docs/N13072012_2.pdf

Age of deposition of Old Alluvium 2.58

0.78 M yr during Pleistocene glaciations
http://www.srmeg.org.sg/docs/N13072012_2.pdf

(Cai, 2012)

(Hougang)

Old Alluvium, Singapore.

Deposited in rivers and estuaries
between ~2.58 - 0.78 Myr

The Old Alluvium was deposited in braided river channels

Bedok Reservoir

Gupta et al (1987)

Rivers in the Old Alluvium, ~1-2 m yr ago

Drawn by GJH Oliver

What were SLs like in Singapore during the deposition of Old

AlluviumMillers
2.58(2005)
- 0.78
Myr?Eon sea levelSLreconstruction
= +15 to -100 m, av -40 m
Phanerozoic

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k247/dhm1353/Climate%20Change/300000BC.png

Bathymetry of the Singapore region

http://www.tcarta.com/home/main/

Singapore bathymetry: Singapore

Straits is a depression

Rivers feeding into Lake Tamasek, ~1 million

years ago, when SL was -40 m
Out let?
Sea

LAKE TAMESEK

SL over the past 140,000 yrs: 2 glacials

At 125,000 yrs BP
Tekong Formation?

at 18,000 yr BP

Pukis & Klemas (2011)

Glacial maximum
at 135,000 yr BP

Glacial maximums at 135,000 yr BP and

again at 18,000 yr BP, sea level -130 m

Sunda

Sual
Singapore would be located about 300 km from the sea.

Interglacial at 125,000 yrs BP: SL = + 5 m: beach sand and

mangrove mud deposits on 5 m raised beaches = Tekong Fm

Interglacial at 125,000 yrs BP, SL = + 5m.

5 m high raised beach on Pulau Tekong
Tekong Formation
5 m raised beach
1.25 m sea-fill

Active sea-fill

Photo: GJH Oliver

View southeast from near Pulau Sajahat

Homo Sapien arrived in Australia 50,000 yrs ago

when SL was -50 m and climate was ~4 o C cooler
From Africa?

China?
Compare climate then to
present day African savanna.
Homo Sapiens free to migrate
through grasslands into East
Indies and Australia

Genetic evidence supports

close ties between Australia
and Pap New Guinea indig pop

http://australianmuseum.net.au/The-spread-of-people-to-Australia/

Geology Map of Singapore

Kallang Formation
< 8,5000 yr BP
s

KEY

Tekong Fm

Recent alluvium (Kallang Fm)

and land-fill

Old Alluvium
North

Jurong Formation
.

10 km scale

Andesitic volcanics (v)

and sediments (s)
Granite

Geology after Lee and Zhou (2009)

Gabbro

Kallang Formation: Recent Alluvium < 8,500 BP to present

Radiocarbon ages on shells

and mangrove wood =
8,500 BP to present day

SL = -35 m at 8,500 BP?

Bird et al. (2010)

Kallang Formation: deposited in estuaries and

coastlines

Quiet (deeper)marine

Mangrove

Shallow marine

Beach

20 m deep Johor Straits flooded

~5,000 yr BP
Kallang Formation < 8,500 yr BP to the present day
Johor Straits flooded about 5,000 yr BP

At 125,000 yrs BP
Tekong Formation?

Glacial maximum

Pukis & Klemas (2011)

SLR since 1880 = 3 mm/yr

Recent sea level rise is 3 mm per year.

Source: This figure was prepared from publicly available data by Robert A. Rohde.
Downloaded from http://schools-wikipedia.org/images/43/4395.png.htm.

Note that SL rose faster between 8 and 7,000 BP

(due to natural climate change) than the present rate

SLR 10 m in 1000 yr
= 10 mm / yr

http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/12/holocene_sea_level_present.jpg

SLR since 1993: 3.2 mm / yr

Satellite Altimetry

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/s/Paper1_Observing_changes_in_the
_climate_system.PDF

Causes of Sea Level Rise

See also: Sources of sea level rise and their contributions in mm per year for the
periods 1961-2003 and 1993-2003 from the IPCC 2007 assessment.

http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2011/2011-17.shtml

Tide gauge data: Seattle, San

Francisco, San Diego

SL has stopped rising

Credit: American Geophysical Union

SL rise (and fall) is uneven

Satellite imagery

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/files/ostm/fenogliomarc.jpg

SL rise variability in SE Asia

Sea Level Rise (SLR) from satellite altimetry in 1993-2011 and corresponding Relative
Sea Level Rise (RSLR) from tide gauge stations (triangle)

World av = 3.2 mm/yr

Singapore SL Rise

SLR = 7 mm/yr
(twice the world av)

1.5 m
1.1 m
HAT
(South China Sea)
0.5 m

Predictions of 24 65 cm SLR between 2000

and 2100: what is Singapore doing about it?
Statements by Dr Yaacob Ibrahim, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources,
and Dr Amy Khor, Senior Parliamentary Secretary, Ministry of the Environment and Water
Resources, Committee of Supply Debate, 8 Mar 2010
In 2007, NEA commissioned a study involving local and foreign experts to understand
our vulnerabilities to climate change.
The study indicates that the average daily temperature here could rise by 2.7 and 4.2
deg C from the present average of 26.8 deg C by 2100. The study, however, found "no
discernible trend in rainfall patterns over the next century."
The mean sea level around Singapore could rise by 24 to 65 cm by 2100.
A requirement since the early 1990's for reclaimed land to be built at a height of 125 cm
above the highest measured tidal level, as a buffer against rising sea levels. Now its 225 cm.
The Singapore government has announced that a Dutch water research and consulting
organization, Delft Hydraulics, has been consulted on how Singapore can construct dykes to
combat rising sea levels.
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/Contents.aspx?Yr=2010&ContId=1387

Potential effects on Singapore

due to climate change

http://app.mewr.gov.sg/data/ImgUpd/NCCS_Chapter_2_-_VA.pdf

Singapore astronomical tide 1974

P.P. Wong (1992)

Astronomical (HAT) arrangements: 9th Feb 1974, high tide of 1.1m above MHWS: no urban floods

Effect of SL rise in Singapore

http://app.mewr.gov.sg/web/Contents/Contents.aspx?Yr=2010&ContId=1387

What if all the Greenland ice cap melted?

Singapore with 7 m SLR. Is this realistic?

http://ouredenblue.blogspot.com/2008_09_01_archive.html

Wong Poh Poh (2008)

Adaption measures
Flooding
Higher SLS make it more difficult to drain rain water = inland flooding
During storm surges. Since 1992, PUBLIC Utilities Board (PUB) requires
new reclamations to be 125 cm above the highest recorded SL. Cf this to
IPCCs AR4 SL rise of worst case projection of 59 cm by the end of the
21st Century. In 2011 this was raised to 225 cm.
The development of drainage infrastructure in Singapore has reduced
flood-prone areas to 66 ha by 2011, by widening and deepening drains,
canals and the construction of the Marina Barrage.
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/data/ImgUpd/NCCS_Chapter_2_-_VA.pdf

Coastal land loss

A SL rise of 59 cm can result in some coastal erosion (eg. East Coast
Park, Sungei Buloh, Pasir Ris Park, West Coast Park, Sentosa) and
land loss.
http://app.mewr.gov.sg/data/ImgUpd/NCCS_Chapter_2_-_VA.pdf

Since Singapore has a flat coastline: 70% of the coastline is protected

by hard wall or stone embankments; the rest is beach or
mangrove.
The Government will adapt to
SL rise as the need arises.
Existing protections can be
strengthened.
Erosion of the Pulau Sajahat
retaining embankment

Marina Barrage cost SGD226 million

Water supply : increases the water catchment from 1/2 to 2/3rds of
Singapore. Supplies 10% of SP drinking water.
Flood control: keep out high tides and storm surges from the CBD.
Large pumps to lower the level inside the barrage during flash floods.
Lifestyle attraction: scenic,
water sports

http://www.pub.gov.sg/pureannual2008/birth_of_the_barrage.htm

Singapore owes its economic wealth to

climate change and sea level rise!
Singapore was first separated from Johor by SLR and flooding of
the Johor Straits about 5,000 years ago.
In 1819 Raffles established Singapore in the sheltered deep
water harbour and anchorages at the tip of the Malay
Peninsular.
The island status facilitated the treaty. The rest is history!
In 1965, Singapore was expelled from the Malaysian Federation,
leading to independence on 9 August 1965.
If Singapore had remained in the Federation then it is possible
that some (a lot?) of the tax revenue would have been spent
on infra-structure outside of Singapore rather than inside it.
Singapore as a city state depends on the fact that this is an island
formed by CC and SLR.

Conclusions
PAST:
The Old Alluvium was deposited in rivers (estuaries and lakes)
between 2.58 and 0.78 million years ago, SL was on average
- 40 m. SL was -130 m 135,000 yrs BP.
Tekong Formation is a raised beach formed 125,000 yrs BP?
+5m above present day sea level.
Kallang Formation was deposited in estuaries and beaches
starting 8,500 BP when SL was -25m and the climate was 4 oC
cooler. SL has continued to rise from 8,500 BP till now
Climate and SL have never been constant.

PRESENT: Singapore average temps decreased 0.5oC from 1948

to1974, rose 1.7oC between 1974 and 2008, fluctuating cos of
stronger El Nino and La Nina years. Temperatures have remained
fairly constant (and high) between 2000 2010, now dropping?

A high astronomical tide in 1974: 1.1m above MHWS: minor

flooding along the East Coast. No urban flooding. Singapore is
not vulnerable to SLR < 1m
Recent climate cycles/changes are due to cycles in insolation due
to Earths orbital changes plus anthropogenic green house gases
carbon dioxide, methane, and especially water vapour. Climate is
not const.

FUTURE: Climatists vs Sceptics argue about future temperature

trends and causes. Climates will change in the future, SL will
change in the future, how much of this change is anthropogenic?
SL is rising at 0.3 m per 100 yr. Compare this with 1.1 m HAT
event of 1979. Since 2011, SP government decided that all new
landfills must be 2.25 meters above the highest tide.

Singapores biggest natural resource is its biophysical environment:

its an island with deep, sheltered harbours and anchorages caused
by CC and SLR: Johor and Singapore Straits where river valleys
formed during the glacial Pleistocene Period when SL was 130m.

Two thoughts for the day

Meteorologist Mark Nolan:
I'm not sure which is more arrogant - to say we
caused [global warming] or that we can fix it

Anonymous Geologist
If we cant predict the weather today using present
day technology, how can we predict climate change
in the future?

Which country has the highest CO2

emissions per capita in the world?

The energy consumption based on the EIA is higher as it includes

marine bunkers in its calculation and as Singapore is the largest marine
bunkering centre in the world. The IEA excludes marine bunkers from
its calculation of energy consumption.
http://www.lowcarbonsg.com/2009/05/14/singapores-carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-capita-and-carbon-intensity