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22 July 2016
Extremely low interest rates drive up the demand for gold, especially from
gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
and make holding gold an increasingly attractive alternative to bank deposits such as time and savings deposits.
US interest rates have been held fairly low for some time now. The Federal Reserve (Fed) last raised the rate on 16 December 2015, but that was but a temporary reprieve. Rates' long-term backslide has since resumed.
1800
1600
6
1400
1200
1000
800
600
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1
0
07
08
09
US 2-year rate
10
11
12
US 10-year rate
13
15
16
Source: Bloomberg.
The situation in the USA is emblematic of interest rates in many currency areas
these days. Borrowing costs have hit rock bottom or close to it. Ten-year government bond yields in Germany and Japan, for example, recently plunged into
negative territory.
22 July 2016
25
30
20
25
15
20
10
15
10
5
0
80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16
-1
99
00
01
02
KGV (RS)
03
04
US
05
06 07
Japan
08
09 10 11
Germany
12 13
Italy
14
15
16
Source: Bloomberg.
2300
5,0
2100
4,5
1900
4,0
1700
3,5
1500
3,0
1300
2,5
1100
2,0
900
1,5
700
500
1,0
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Source: Bloomberg.
What's more, lower rates reduce firms' borrowing costs, thereby fueling profits, which should then boost stock prices. By increasing their leverage, firms
improve their return on equity and encourage investors to buy shares and
drive prices up further.
Extremely low interest rates have another very important consequence: Bank
deposits look to be a far less appealing place to park money, which makes
gold an even more attractive option.
In recent decades, people could earn positive, inflation-adjusted yields on demand, time or savings deposits. This gave secured bank deposits a competitive
edge over gold and silver.
22 July 2016
Now that interest rates on bank deposits have all but evaporated, gold and silver are real rivals for time and savings deposits, which are typically held for the
medium-to-long term.
These deposits have a credit or counterparty risk; gold does not. By definition,
gold cannot default. What's more, politically expedient machinations cannot
undermine gold's buying power.
25
Beyond that, gold and to some extent also silver have become a low-cost insurance for investors looking for a hedge against the evils of unbacked paper
money.
15
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
20
10
5
0
80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 12 16
Federal Funds Rate (LS)
Risk premium (RS)
Falling yields drive demand for gold ETFs, and vice versa
Gold ETFs (million ounces) and US 2-year rate in percent
6
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
07
08
09
10
11
12
ETF stocks
13
14
15
16
Source: Bloomberg.
This has a great deal to do with declining short-term borrowing costs in the
USA. That's not a huge surprise: Gold's appeal rises as short-term rates fall.
Closely linked: gold ETFs and the price of gold
Gold ETFs (million ounces) and the price of gold (USD/oz)
90
2000
80
1800
70
1600
60
1400
50
1200
40
1000
30
800
20
600
400
10
07
08
09
10
11
12
ETF stocks
13
14
Gold (RS)
Source: Bloomberg.
15
16
22 July 2016
On top of all that, ETF gold stocks have been closely linked to the actual gold
price (in US dollars per ounce), which would suggest that institutional investors wield considerable influence over the price of the gilded metal.
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
90
95
00
05
10
15
How long will interest rates remain in the cellar? Is zero percent even economically feasible for any prolonged period? Precious metals investors need answers to these key questions about low and nonexistent interest rates.
Central banks around the world have slashed their official rates to rockbottom levels, dragging long-term bond yields and other borrowing costs
down as well.
But there is more to this than meets the eye. Most central banks have started
buying long-term bonds by issuing new base money, which means they essentially control long-term yields.
Take, for instance, the European Central Bank (ECB). It ramps up its balance
sheet volume by buying up all sorts of bonds that are funded by issuing new
euro deposits created out of thin air.
How the ECB pushes down interest rates
10-year German govt bond yield in percent
and balance sheet volume of the Euro system* in billion euros
6
3500
3000
2500
3
2000
2
1500
1000
0
-1
500
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10-year German gov't bond yield (LS)
As the graph below shows, the ECB's rising balance sheet volume is accompanied by a marked decline in bond yields. This drop in yields doesnt come
naturally; it is a politically engineered outcome.
Gold and stocks
Debt levels are fairly high in practically all major economies around the world,
so it seems unlikely that central banks will be willing or able to abandon their
extreme low interest rate policies anytime soonif ever.
Again, if monetary policy is to suppress interest rates, the (base) money supply
has to be increased. And that bodes well for the gold price further down the
line.
22 July 2016
16000
1800
14000
1600
12000
1400
1200
10000
1000
8000
800
6000
600
4000
400
2000
200
0
0
59
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
Gold (LS)
91
95
99
03
07
11
15
M2 (RS)
Over the long term, the gold price is largely driven by the quantity of money:
The more unbacked paper money there is sloshing around relative to a given
quantity of gold, the higher the latters exchange value should be against unbacked paper money.
In view of the inflationary ramifications of central banks policies, we also advocate holding on to shares in good companies. Most firms that have proven
their ability to do business successfully over the long haul are in a position to
earn positive inflation-adjusted returns on capital.
In fact, good companies are able to cope with higher inflation by raising their
prices if and when inflation drives up their input costs (energy, wages, etc.).
If investors manage to buy these stocks at low pricesthat is, at prices lower
than their intrinsic valuethey will enjoy a margin of safety that keeps the investment risk in check.
From where we stand, gold and shareholdings in good companies are sound
ingredients for a portfolio aimed to weather the storm caused by central
banks monetary follies.
22 July 2016
Gold
S ilver
P latinum
P alladium
1,324.6
19.7
1,096.7
682.0
1,327.1
19.8
1,094.9
668.1
10 days
1,334.1
20.0
1,095.7
653.6
20 days
1,337.9
19.6
1,070.5
625.5
50 days
1,289.1
18.0
1,024.2
580.9
100 days
1,269.0
17.1
1,011.5
580.9
200 days
1,195.9
15.8
953.8
564.7
III. P rojections
R ante
Low
R ange
High
Low
R ange
High
Low
R ange
High
Low
High
Q3 2016
1,175
1,320
17.6
19.5
850
1,130
640
700
Q4 2016
1,251
1,360
17.1
20.1
800
1,170
660
730
Q1 2017
1,279
1,390
17.8
20.9
1,040
1,220
700
760
Q2 2017
1,306
1,420
18.5
21.8
1,080
1,270
730
790
1,398
23.4
1,473
725
2014
1,252
18.6
1,370
805
2015
1,154
15.5
1,043
684
2016 (projected)
1,209
17.3
931
619
In Euro
I. Actual
Gold
S ilver
P latinum
P alladium
1,203.3
17.9
996.3
619.5
1,203.5
17.9
992.9
605.9
10 days
1,206.7
18.1
991.2
591.3
20 days
1,208.3
17.7
966.8
564.9
519.8
50 days
1,153.2
16.1
916.3
100 days
1,129.7
15.2
900.4
517.1
200 days
1,078.7
14.3
860.2
509.6
III. P rojections
R ange
Low
R ange
High
Low
R ange
High
Low
R ange
High
Low
High
Q3 2016
1,058
1,189
15.8
17.6
766
1,018
577
631
Q4 2016
1,180
1,283
16.1
19.0
755
1,104
623
689
Q1 2017
1,279
1,390
17.8
20.9
1,040
1,220
700
760
Q2 2017
1,306
1,420
18.5
21.8
1,080
1,270
730
790
1,052
18
1,108
545
2014
949
14
1,036
611
2015
1,045
14
945
619
2016 (projected)
1,098
16
846
562
S ource: B loomberg; own calculations . P rojections of Degus s a Goldhandel GmbH (end of quarter); numbers are rounded.
22 July 2016
1380
1330
61
1280
1230
56
1180
1130
51
1080
46
22-Jul-15
22-Oct-15
22-Jan-16
Million ounces (LS)
22-Apr-16
Gold prices (USD/oz, RS)
1030
22-Jul-16
20,5
645
19,0
635
17,5
625
16,0
615
14,5
605
595
22-Jul-15
22-Oct-15
22-Jan-16
Millionen ounces (LS)
22-Apr-16
Silver price (USD/oz, RS)
13,0
22-Jul-16
1150
2,8
1100
2,7
1050
2,6
1000
2,5
950
2,4
900
2,3
850
2,2
22-Jul-15
22-Oct-15
22-Jan-16
22-Apr-16
Million ounces (LS)
Platinum price (USD/oz, RS)
800
22-Jul-16
750
700
650
600
550
500
22-Oct-15
22-Jan-16
Million ounces (LS)
Source: Bloomberg.
22-Apr-16
450
22-Jul-16
22 July 2016
Commodity prices
S elected commodity prices
Actual price
in US -dollar
1 week
1 mth
3 mths
44.31
-3.9
-6.7
45.87
-1.9
-4.6
Gas oline
134.85
-1.6
Heating oil
136.01
Gas oil
12 mths
30 days
90 days
5.8
9.8
-28.7
44.8
37.6
9.9
15.2
-32.8
45.5
38.7
-15.5
-6.4
0.9
-29.5
41.1
34.6
-3.7
-3.3
9.6
15.3
-31.4
43.4
37.6
404.00
-4.0
-4.9
6.2
15.3
37.1
35.5
2.67
-4.7
10.7
20.7
8.1
-15.1
39.0
37.2
28.2
I. Energy
Natural gas
II. Agriculture
Corn
338.50
-6.6
-14.4
-8.2
-13.9
-21.4
35.8
Wheat
416.00
-4.4
-16.5
-15.1
-16.7
-34.1
24.0
27.8
S oy beans
995.75
-5.9
-1.2
7.7
11.5
2.8
37.0
26.8
30.6
Coffee
146.35
1.6
18.6
11.5
20.1
0.8
30.0
S ugar
19.50
-0.4
17.5
24.9
47.3
39.4
33.8
31.4
Cotton
72.39
10.0
15.4
25.3
17.9
9.4
26.2
19.9
Aluminum
1601.00
-3.7
-4.6
5.3
5.4
-5.3
16.6
17.0
Copper
4976.00
5.6
-1.5
2.7
9.1
-13.7
20.8
20.2
Zinc
2254.00
5.2
16.3
24.1
38.9
12.7
23.2
26.0
Lead
1862.00
2.5
3.2
9.2
8.4
5.8
19.5
22.4
55.80
0.2
-15.2
4.9
34.8
-9.3
1325.39
-3.0
2.5
7.5
18.5
12.9
18.3
16.2
19.70
-2.8
10.4
28.1
38.1
25.5
29.5
25.6
P latinum
1096.84
0.0
1.9
12.4
25.9
1.5
20.8
22.8
P alladium
681.90
10.3
9.5
21.1
36.5
1.1
24.4
27.4
17.4
Iron ore
IV. P recious metals
Gold
S ilver
V. Ratios
Gold-s ilver
67.28
-1.1
-7.2
-16.0
-13.9
-10.0
22.2
Gold-platinum
1.21
-2.4
0.7
-4.3
-5.4
11.3
18.3
15.3
Gold-palladium
1.94
-11.6
-5.7
-11.2
-13.4
11.6
35.6
28.1
P alladium-platinum
0.62
10.5
6.8
7.8
9.1
-0.3
27.9
23.0
08
09
Total index
10
11
Industrial metals
12
13
Energy
14
15
Agricultural
16
22 July 2016
13
14
15
16
Source: Bloomberg.
(b) In euro
-40
S&P 500
Nasdaq
Euro STOXX 50
FTSE 100
DAX
Swiss MI
Nikkei
Hang Seng
Bovespa
Russia
CRB Index
Gold
Silver
Crude oil
EURUSD
EURJPY
EURGBP
EURCHF
USDCAD
USDGBP
USDJPY
US gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
US gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
Euro gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
Euro gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
UK gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
UK gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
Japan gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
Japan gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
-20
20
40
60
5,9
1,3
-7,5
6,9
-6,1
-7,6
-12,6
0,2
30,7
9,3
4,3
24,9
42,1
24,6
1,6
-10,4
13,6
0,1
-5,0
0,0
-11,8
4,1
1,3
5,5
0,3
9,5
1,3
3,9
0,4
-60
S&P 500
Nasdaq
Euro STOXX 50
FTSE 100
DAX
Swiss MI
Nikkei
Hang Seng
Bovespa
Russia
CRB Index
Gold
Silver
Crude oil
EURUSD
EURJPY
EURGBP
EURCHF
USDCAD
USDGBP
USDJPY
US gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
US gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
Euro gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
Euro gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
UK gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
UK gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
Japan gov't bond 7 - 10 yrs
Japan gov't bond 1 - 3 yrs
-40
-20
20
40
60
4,4
-0,2
-7,5
-6,7
-6,1
-7,7
-2,2
-3,6
46,8
19,5
2,7
23,3
40,6
23,0
1,6
-10,4
13,6
0,1
-5,0
0,0
-11,8
2,5
-0,2
5,5
0,3
-4,1
-12,3
15,7
12,2
10
22 July 2016
8 July 2016
24 June 2016
10 June 2016
US Fed wants to raise rates further - investors should cling to gold and stocks
27 May 2016
The Illusion of Central Bank Independence and the Consequence for the Gold Price
13 May 2016
The Fight Against Secular Stagnation and What It Means for Gold and Silver Prices
29 April 2016
15 April 2016
1 April 2016
18 March 2016
The Degussa Marktreport (German) and the Degussa Market Report (English) are available at:
www.degussa-goldhandel.de/de/marktreport.aspx.
11
22 July 2016
Disclaimer
Degussa Goldhandel GmbH, Frankfurt am Main, is responsible for creating this document. The authors of this document certify that the views expressed
in it accurately reflect their personal views and that their compensation was not, is not, nor will be directly or indirectly related to the recommendations
or views contained in this document. The analyst(s) named in this document are not registered / qualified as research analysts with FINRA and are therefore not subject to NASD Rule 2711.
This document serves for information purposes only and does not take into account the recipient's particular circumstances. Its contents are not intended to be and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to acquire or dispose of precious metals or securities mentioned in this document and
shall not serve as the basis or a part of any contract.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources that Degussa Goldhandel GmbH holds to be reliable and accurate. Degussa
Goldhandel GmbH makes no guarantee or warranty with regard to correctness, accuracy, completeness or fitness for a particular purpose.
All opinions and views reflect the current view of the author or authors on the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Degussa Goldhandel GmbH. Degussa Goldhandel GmbH is under no obligation to update, modify or amend this document or to otherwise notify its recipients in the event that any circumstance mentioned or statement, estimate or forecast set forth in this document changes or is subsequently rendered inaccurate.
The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. No assurance can be given that any views described herein would yield
favorable returns on investments. There is the possibility that said forecasts in this document may not come to pass owing to various risk factors. These
include, without limitation, market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information and/or the circumstance that underlying assumptions made by Degussa Goldhandel GmbH or by other sources relied upon in the document should prove inaccurate.
Neither Degussa Goldhandel GmbH nor any of its directors, officers or employees shall be liable for any damages arising out of or in any way connected
with the use of this document and its content.
Any inclusion of hyperlinks to the websites of organizations in this document in no way implies that Degussa Goldhandel GmbH endorses, recommends
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This document is intended only for use by the recipient. It may not be modified, reproduced, distributed, published or passed on to any other person, in
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Imprint
Marktreport is published every 14 days on Fridays and is a free service provided by Degussa Goldhandel GmbH.
Deadline for this edition: 22 July 2016
Publisher: Degussa
Goldhandel GmbH, Kettenhofweg 29, 60325 Frankfurt, Tel.: (069) 860068-0, Fax: (069) 860068-222
E-Mail: info@degussa-goldhandel.de, Internet: www.degussa-goldhandel.de
Editor in chief: Dr. Thorsten Polleit
Degussa Market Report is available on the Internet at: http://www.degussa-goldhandel.de/de/marktreport.aspx
Frankfurt Headquarters
Kettenhofweg 29 60325 Frankfurt
Phone: 069-860 068 0 info@degussa-goldhandel.de
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