Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Quantitative Analysis
Group Assignment 1
Vincent Ly 3371551
Jiahua Sun
3326833
Jiarong Li
3326772
Ru liu
3335572
Jia Xin Li
3326970
Jimmy Ye
3074073
Lu Bai
3344794
Boris Lakic
3239323
Meeting minutesMeeting1
Date: Saturday, 18 Aug 2012
Time: 10:00 AM
Location: Swanston Library
Agenda:
Executive Summary
Pomberries, a newly developed berry, these berries have become extremely popular and are
widely used as topping for desserts, spread or simply eaten raw as fruit.
The purpose of this report is to analyse Its a Pomb, one of our clientss pomberry brand to
see if it is viable to enter the market in terms of its competitiveness. The process has been
2 | Page
conducted through using the linear regressions models, backward elimination methods which
are with all predictors in the market to analysis the organizations benefit in the market in
period of 1991 to 2011. The report also analysed our brands resistance and vulnerability of
Pomberry rot a new disease which affected the berry industry during period of 2001 and its
impact during the year.
Throughout the research study, we have carefully followed articles from research papers such
as Using Regression Mixture Analysis in Education Research and Science, Research
Designs, and Regression Analysis (in our reference) which is relevant to our valuation, and
as such we can provide an intensify and accurate forecast result to our client.
3 | Page
Table of Contents
Executive Summary............................................................................................... 2
1.
Introduction..................................................................................................... 4
2.
Methodology....................................................................................................... 5
3.
4.
Recommendation.......................................................................................... 17
5.
Appendix..................................................................................................... 18
6.
References................................................................................................... 36
4 | Page
1. Introduction
We are a statistical consultant within a large economic consulting agency, our aim is to
conduct a in depth analysis on Its a Pomb one of the nine pomberry brands, there will be
various data modelling techniques used to analyse the various aspects of Its a pombs
performance. These performance data are then compared with our potential competitors to
conclude its strengths and weaknesses.
The analysis will cover the trend of its sales and prices during different economic
environment as well as the comparison with other eight potential competitors. The intention
of these analyses is to assist better understanding of the brands vulnerability during different
time period.
Throughout the report, we also conducted a research on the Pomberry rot, a disease which
had caused loss production of Pomberies during year of 2001, this research will focus on the
sales volume fluctuation around Its a Pomb and its competitors.
5 | Page
2. Methodology
Throughout this report, there are two main methods used to assists our research, mainly liner
regression model where it contained all predictors and times series model to estimate the
relationship between our own volume of sales ( Its a pomb) and our prices over time. We
must also have to investigate how competitors prices can influence our volume of sales
during t period under different scenarios and seasons (2001 disease outbreak)
The resources collected in this report were primarily from our lecture topic 2 to 3, also text
books, where it listed in our reference section. Beside the academic information, forecasting
data were provided on the learning hub. The data contains the volume of sales, prices of
different berries brands over a specific period (Jan 1991-Dec 2011).
Methods:
Section 3.1 We have constructed a line chart depicting the volume of sales for Its a Pomb
and discussed the fluctuation of sale volume during different economical environments.
According to Black (2010), components of time-series forecasting consisted of trend, cycles,
cyclical effects, seasonal effects and irregular fluctuations. However, trend and seasonal
effects are the components that we were using during this report.
Section 3.2 - We estimated an equation of a trend line, in terms of Y and T, where Y is the
volume sales in period of t and T is the trend. The reason we did that is to determine the
relationship between the sales and time period.
Section 3.3 By using the technical guidelines to get the average sales and seasonal index
then we conclude the seasonal reasons for higher sales or lower sales during the year. Also we
have compared the original p-value and seasonal index p value to make sure the predictor is
significant or not.
Section 3.4 We have added a dummy variable to get a new regression equation, by using
this regression we have concluded that the new variable is good or not though null hypothesis
method.
6 | Page
Section 3.5- We now try to investigate the impact of competitors prices on our volume of
sales by doing a regression between volumes of sales (as independent variable) against all of
the above variables and prices of other berries brands (as dependent variables). The main
goal is to investigate the effect of other berries prices on our brands volume of sales over
time.
Section 3.6 A Durbin Watson test was performed to test for existence of auto correlation.
7 | Page
4.00000
2.00000
0.00000
The above line chart illustrated the data about the volume of sales of Its a Pomb (in tonnes)
relative to the time interval from January 1991 to December 2011.
From the graph, we can see that the sales volume of Its a Pomb fluctuates over the years. In
the first 10 years (1991-2001), the sales volume fluctuates between 8.00 to 10.00 tonnes.
Specially, in October 1999, the sales volume reaches the peak of 10.20558tones, but in august
1996 the company just sold 8.14238tonnes which is the lowest point of sales volume in the
first 10 years.
On the other hand, the last 10 years (2001-2011), the sales volume tends to increase
(population increase could be an important factor) which almost fluctuates between 9.00 to
10.00 tonnes. In December of 2001, the sales volume reaches the highest point over this line
chart, 11.73583 tonnes. This rapid increase in volume may cause by a large increase in
quantity demanded. Then decreased rapidly in 2002, in October it even reaches the lowest
point of the last 10 years (8.86338 tonnes).
8 | Page
Moreover, we can see the volume peaked during December months for the past 20 years,
those increases and decreases of sales volume may be influenced by the seasonal effect.
Simply by analysing the overall line chart, we can find out that the graph is in an uptrend
with steady increase in volume over time.
Coefficient
s
8.65041737
Intercept
7
0.00636097
X Variable 1
3.2.2
Regression Statistics
0.71771177
Multiple R
8
0.51511019
R Square
Adjusted R
0.51317063
Square
7
0.45074628
Standard Error
Observations
252
10 | P a g e
3.2.3
6.00000
4.00000
2.00000
0.00000
0.00000
11 | P a g e
3.2.4
6
4
2
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sample Percentile
Date
Jan
12 | P a g e
(average sales)
9.435757143
(seasonal index)
99.86280623
Feb
9.519904762
100.7533778
Mar
9.370311429
99.17016519
Apr
9.519295714
100.746932
May
9.366734762
99.13231174
Jun
9.30158381
98.44279029
Jul
9.22190381
97.59950148
Aug
9.224201429
97.6238182
Sep
9.26296619
98.03408288
Oct
9.332868095
98.77388577
Nov
9.585371905
101.4462457
Dec
10.24374333
108.4140827
Total
9.448720198
13 | P a g e
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.821744923
R Square
0.675264718
Adjusted R Square
0.672656402
Standard Error
0.36961169
Observations
252
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
Significance F
Regression
70.73515782
35.36757891
258.8891997
1.53257E-61
Residual
249
34.01658763
0.136612802
Total
251
104.7517454
Coefficients
Standard Error
P-value
Lower 95%
t Stat
Intercept
-0.529507332
0.829689552
0.638199349
0.523930423
-2.163611494
X Variable 1
0.006304128
0.000320107
19.69383576
1.08248E-52
0.005673666
14 | P a g e
X Variable 2
0.091870595
0.008290333
11.08165275
1.8339E-23
0.075542478
Against
Ha:20(significant)
Decision rule
1) If p -value is less than 0.05, Reject Ho.
2) If p value is greater than 0.05, accept Ho.
Since p value represents how significant the errors of our equations are, we want it to be as
low as possible ( prefer to be less than 5%).
At p-value=0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected for seasonal index variable because the pvalue is less than 0.05, which is 1.83E-23.Therefore, it means that SI is a significant
predictor.
A regression analysis was performed on volume of sales against T, SI and D, the result is
listed below:
Y=-0.58118+0.006304T+0.091871SI+1.08517D
According to the results we obtained from our regression analysis, we can conclude that all of
these predictors are significant (P values are under 5%).
Thanks to the fact that our brand is immune to the rot disease, our sales are not influenced by
the disease. Due to the interaction between supply and demand of the market, we observed an
increase in sales during the year 2001.
Our analysis has proven our previous observations were right. We observed an increase in
sales during the year 2001 thanks to our brands resistance to the disease.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.896517
R Square
0.803742
Adjusted R
Square
0.801368
Standard
Error
0.287918
Observations
252
17 | P a g e
ANOVA
Significan
df
Regression
SS
84.19336
MS
28.0644
338.547
ce F
2.31E-87
0.08289
Residual
248
20.55838
Total
251
104.7517
Coefficien
Standard
ts
Error
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
18 | P a g e
-0.58118
0.006304
0.091871
1.08517
0.646319
0.000249
0.006458
0.085167
Lower
t Stat
P-value
0.36940
0.89922
25.2817
1.36E-
70
14.2259
5.55E-
34
12.7416
6.08E-
29
95%
-1.85416
0.005813
0.079151
0.917426
Lower
Upper
Upper 95%
95.0%
95.0%
0.69179262
0.69179
1.85416
0.00679525
0.00581
0.00679
0.10459002
0.07915
0.10459
1.25291289
0.91742
1.25291
Pompeii would lead to increasing 0.15981tones of sales volume. I cant believe its not
pompous have the significant influence on which one unit increase in the price, result in
0.1719 tonnes of our own sales volume. This indicates that competitors prices in the same
market (budget) will have the biggest influences on volumes of sale. Therefore, competitors
prices are in a different market (premium) would have a minimal effect on sales volume.
Since Its a pomb , up pompeii and I cant believe its not pompous are competing in the same
category(budget). We can expect that up pompeii s prices and I cant believe its not
pompous s prices have strong influence on our volume of sales. Although, pomalicious is
competing in premium category, there may be a good chance that this brand is competing in
the same region with our brand. Therefore, according to our finding, pomaliciouss prices
also has a strong relationship with our volume of sales.
20 | P a g e
4. Recommendation
According to our analysis, if our client wants to compete in budget category of the berries
market in Victoria. They should stock up on up Pompeii, I cant believe it s not pompous and
its a pomp brand. A few other factors should also be taken into consideration (Trend,
Seasonal Index, possible disease outbreak and the impact of other brands prices on our
volume of sales). The volume of sales tends to increase over time due to the growth of
population; we expect an increase in demand over time. The berries season is on December
every year, so we also expect a significant increase in demand for berries during December
months. Possible disease outbreak is a threat which can be eliminated by picking the right
brands which have strong resistance against diseases. Initial investment may be needed to
spend on brands research in terms of their resistance. Finally, the client also needs to notice
the impact of other brands prices on their sales. According to this research, its pomp, up
Pompeii, I cant believe its not pompous and pomaliciouss prices are significantly related.
We can increase the accuracy of the final equation by adding more independent variables like
the cost of growing berries, cost of transportations, inventory management cost.
21 | P a g e
5. Appendix
3.2.5
Durbin Watson test
(et-etet
et-1
1)^2
et^2
0.0018
0.043552623
97
0.0435526
0.1040
0.0778
23
07
12
0.2789483
0.0713
0.2982
55
91
68
0.5461393
0.1051
0.0492
34
26
0.2218703
0.0825
0.0042
13
01
72
0.0653587
0.0063
09
84
0.0211
0.1452577
0.0216
0.0854
0.292396751
96
-0.278024227
0.2923967
0.3253
0.0772
-0.278948355
-0.546139334
-0.221870313
0.065358709
0.14525773
22 | P a g e
51
97
0.2780242
0.0052
0.0421
27
92
38
0.2052752
0.0004
0.0509
06
17
34
0.2256861
0.0364
0.1734
85
95
-0.205275206
-0.225686185
-0.416527163
0.4165271
0.799161858
-0.15249912
0.6386
63
1.4779
0.7991618
0.9056
0.0232
58
59
56
0.1524991
0.1551
0.0582
72
84
0.2414199
0.0493
0.2149
01
86
0.241419901
0.463648922
0.4009977
0.0265
0.0566
0.238086766
45
85
0.118545788
0.2380867
0.0142
0.0140
23 | P a g e
66
53
0.1185457
0.0134
5.83E-
88
86
06
0.0024148
0.0725
0.0738
0.27173383
09
33
39
0.2717338
0.4206
0.1420
0.376857148
21
0.002414809
0.3768571
0.0437
0.0281
0.167738127
48
31
36
0.1677381
0.1905
0.3650
0.604209106
27
07
69
0.6042091
0.4897
0.0091
0.095579916
06
05
36
0.0955799
0.0150
0.0007
0.026931063
16
09
25
0.0269310
0.0533
0.0665
0.257932042
63
61
29
0.2579320
0.5751
0.2504
42
08
27
0.50042698
24 | P a g e
69.341
50.793
05
1.3651
DW
79
DU
1.69
DL
1.65
Regression
1
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.912097
Multiple R
947
0.831922
R Square
664
Adjusted R
0.822741
Square
969
25 | P a g e
Standard
0.260550
Error
267
Observations
252
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
Regression
13
79.97123522
6.151633479
90.6165253
Residual
238
16.15697317
0.067886442
Total
251
96.12820839
Coefficien
Standard
ts
Error
Upper
t Stat
P-value
95.0%
0.07675240
0.1535357
13
1.418372
Intercept
49
0.797930427
-1.77756411
0.006045
X Variable 1
215
0.0064945
0.000228108
26.5015172
0.087497
5.86E-73
84
1.93626E-
0.0994163
X Variable 2
157
0.006050394
14.4613993
34
21
X Variable 3
1.053559
0.079266088
13.29142207
1.59633E-
1.2097117
26 | P a g e
X Variable 4
038
30
68
0.126473
0.00441085
0.2131446
41
366
0.043995983
2.874657092
0.168256
X Variable 5
706
0.2526716
0.042850642
3.92658543
0.00011288
0.175976
X Variable 6
92
79
0.2573077
0.041285078
4.262482461
2.9155E-05
61
0.65909117
0.0499440
0.441722392
83
0.12162499
0.0091073
1.553531251
75
0.014435
X Variable 7
654
0.032680376
0.033974
X Variable 8
265
0.021869058
0.011538
X Variable 9
038
0.032189634
0.0518749
0.358439549
0.72033213
46
0.39866091
0.0275780
0.845535948
87
0.020737
X Variable 10
565
0.024525942
0.020650
X Variable 11
966
0.020009889
1.032038009
0.058598
X Variable 12
27 | P a g e
072
0.025122587
2.332485529
0.0187681
0.3031019
45
0.02050983
0.1080891
05
0.007098
X Variable 13
323
Regression
2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.912048
Multiple R
741
0.831832
R Square
906
Adjusted R
0.823389
Square
37
Standard
0.260074
Error
027
Observations
252
ANOVA
28 | P a g e
0.019910643
0.356508988
0.72177527
0.0463219
23
df
SS
MS
98.5171256
Regression
12
79.96260695
6.663550579
Residual
239
16.16560144
0.0676385
Total
251
96.12820839
Coefficien
Standard
ts
Error
Upper
t Stat
P-value
95.0%
1.334229
Intercept
393
0.760832298
1.753644524
0.006040
X Variable 1
87
0.000227366
26.56890921
0.087399
X Variable 2
734
0.006033171
14.48653247
1.053710
X Variable 3
162
0.079120073
13.31786141
0.126027
X Variable 4
764
0.043897841
2.870933094
0.167266
0.1645641
0.08077329
32
2.71994E-
0.0064887
73
67
1.46787E-
0.0992847
34
17
1.22045E-
1.2095719
30
11
0.00445978
0.2125038
51
0.00011620
0.2513475
X Variable 5
01
0.042682283
3.918862814
21
X Variable 6
0.177014
0.041107142
4.306167804
2.42586E-
0.2579928
29 | P a g e
25
05
28
0.68679353
0.0507443
0.403701042
85
0.013079
X Variable 7
466
0.03239889
0.033904
X Variable 8
929
0.021828222
0.0090953
1.553261138
0.12168393
46
0.70208085
0.0508839
0.382972088
87
0.39899684
0.0275410
0.844926586
56
0.30825300
0.0189382
1.021071489
99
0.01793626
0.1086385
98
0.012279
X Variable 9
488
0.032063664
0.020684
X Variable 10
36
0.024480659
0.020379
X Variable 11
399
0.019958836
0.059478
X Variable 12
144
Regression
3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
30 | P a g e
0.024955312
2.383386091
Regression Statistics
0.911992
Multiple R
164
0.831729
R Square
707
Adjusted R
0.824017
Square
318
Standard
0.259611
Error
262
Observations
252
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
107.843337
Regression
11
79.95268657
7.268426052
Residual
240
16.17552182
0.067398008
Total
251
96.12820839
31 | P a g e
Coefficien
Standard
ts
Error
Upper
t Stat
P-value
95.0%
0.05213361
0.0132066
1.951728669
98
1.41432E-
0.0064846
73
34
1.04946E-
0.0992945
34
78
6.79347E-
1.2107693
31
95
0.00411447
0.2130381
52
1.418676
Intercept
876
0.726882224
0.006037
X Variable 1
817
0.000226822
26.61918077
0.087432
X Variable 2
164
0.006021843
14.51917005
1.055442
X Variable 3
855
0.078850056
13.38544199
0.126811
X Variable 4
656
0.043772069
2.897090709
0.167266
X Variable 5
053
0.2511961
0.042606336
3.925849318
0.00011296
73
1.44592E-
0.2593132
4.427897627
05
65
0.70717368
0.0513934
0.376101504
95
0.179470
X Variable 6
043
0.04053166
0.012127
X Variable 7
756
0.032245966
0.033941
0.0089812
X Variable 8
236
0.021789176
1.557710838
0.12061947
11
X Variable 9
0.024376026
0.38205313
0.0266714
32 | P a g e
0.021346
786
0.875728721
89
0.30556188
0.0187892
1.026771321
74
0.01843805
0.1080755
02
0.020455
X Variable 10
677
0.01992233
0.059052
X Variable 11
Regression
4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.911937
Multiple R
789
0.831630
R Square
531
Adjusted R
0.824644
Square
246
Standard
0.259148
33 | P a g e
0.024886167
2.372896576
Error
425
Observations
252
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
119.037589
Regression
10
79.94315296
7.994315296
Residual
241
16.18505543
0.067157906
Total
251
96.12820839
Coefficien
ts
Lower
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
1.478304
Intercept
034
0.708117303
0.03787956
2.8731933
2.087654162
02
7.56232E-
0.0055914
74
07
0.006037
X Variable 1
412
95.0%
0.000226415
26.66523292
0.087247
0.0754457
X Variable 2
163
0.00599102
14.56299046
6.874E-35
16
X Variable 3
1.055549
0.078708969
13.41079611
5.23004E-
0.9005045
34 | P a g e
X Variable 4
932
31
81
0.126119
0.00421697
0.0401243
83
0.00011537
0.0828679
04
1.31262E-
0.1002960
05
65
163
0.043655359
2.888973223
0.166566
X Variable 5
836
0.042489868
3.920154184
0.179954
X Variable 6
936
0.040438927
4.450042335
0.033851
X Variable 7
557
0.021749028
1.556462976
0.0766940
0.12091024
0.021388
X Variable 8
505
0.024332316
0.38026795
0.0693196
0.879016411
68
0.020608
X Variable 9
839
0.019882657
0.30099692
0.0597748
1.036523389
16
0.01630227
0.0111167
57
0.059866
X Variable 10
177
Regressio
n5
SUMMARY OUTPUT
35 | P a g e
15
0.024747705
2.419059786
Regression Statistics
0.91164177
Multiple R
0.83109072
R Square
Adjusted R
0.82480897
Square
Standard
0.25902667
Error
Observation
s
252
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
132.302418
Regression
79.89126207
8.876806897
Residual
242
16.23694632
0.067094819
Total
251
96.12820839
36 | P a g e
Lower
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
1.63893828
Intercept
0.683809465
0.01729961
2.9859165
2.396776246
15
5.59132E-
0.0055858
74
76
6.00777E-
0.0754507
35
29
2.01804E-
0.9063836
31
78
0.00458580
0.0388835
19
0.00603146
X Variable 1
0.000226208
26.66339332
0.08724638
X Variable 2
0.005988205
14.56970581
1.06089056
X Variable 3
0.078437254
13.5253405
0.12478406
X Variable 4
0.043608432
2.861466512
0.16157076
X Variable 5
0.0786647
0.042088226
3.838858909
0.17862036
X Variable 6
0.040391431
4.422234127
0.00015785
36
1.47657E-
0.0990567
05
12
0.03344820
X Variable 7
95.0%
0.021733971
0.12511499
0.0762601
1.538982748
13
0.02074306
0.29762170
0.0598886
X Variable 8
0.01987273
1.043795199
66
X Variable 9
0.06005588
0.024735137
2.427958225
0.01591419
0.0113322
37 | P a g e
Regression
6
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.9112246
Multiple R
02
0.8303302
R Square
75
Adjusted R
0.8247444
Square
Standard
0.2590743
Error
79
Observations
252
ANOVA
df
38 | P a g e
SS
MS
32
148.649277
Regression
79.8181617
9.977270213
Residual
243
16.31004669
0.067119534
Total
251
96.12820839
Coefficien
Standard
ts
Error
Upper
t Stat
P-value
1.8590167
Intercept
66
0.650611897
0.00464234
0.5774581
2.857335954
09
3.42332E-
0.0064824
74
26
4.88043E-
0.0998322
36
1.76471E-
1.1999877
31
35
0.0060368
X Variable 1
84
0.00022619
26.68947652
0.0881619
X Variable 2
18
0.00592471
14.88037693
1.0475277
X Variable 3
77
0.077399705
13.53400212
0.1210431
X Variable 4
52
0.2066671
0.043468913
2.784591204
0.1605250
X Variable 5
17
0.042084049
3.814391029
0.00578155
03
0.00017318
0.2434210
99
0.1728176
X Variable 6
39 | P a g e
71
95%
0.2516370
0.040014401
4.318886906
2.286E-05
13
0.0336948
X Variable 7
25
0.021736689
1.550136022
0.0578303
X Variable 8
24
Regression
7
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
0.910303
Multiple R
512
0.828652
R Square
485
Adjusted R
0.823736
Square
777
Standard
0.259818
Error
108
Observations
252
40 | P a g e
0.024647607
2.346285544
0.0091215
0.12241025
49
0.01976585
0.1063805
ANOVA
Significanc
df
SS
MS
Regression
79.65687872
11.3795541
Residual
244
16.47132967
0.067505449
Total
251
96.12820839
Coefficien
Standard
ts
Error
t Stat
eF
168.572377
1.09805E-
89
P-value
Lower 95%
2.069001
Intercept
202
0.638180391
0.00135233
3.3260468
3.242031924
12
4.26034E-
0.0055897
74
35
0.006036
X Variable 1
548
0.000226839
26.61160826
0.088429
X Variable 2
477
0.0767308
0.005939196
14.88913201
1.052628
4.1804E-36
1.21685E-
0.8998722
X Variable 3
481
0.077551722
13.57324455
31
19
X Variable 4
0.116633
0.043500234
2.681205942
0.00783620
0.0309491
41 | P a g e
X Variable 5
086
96
0.159813
0.00019217
0.0766856
2.64125E-
0.0928635
05
18
0.02568862
0.0067808
067
0.042202347
3.78682892
0.171898
X Variable 6
834
0.040124868
4.284097217
0.055368
X Variable 7
245
0.024666988
3.6.1
Durbin Watson test for final equation
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression
Statistics
0.9103
Multiple R
04
0.8286
R Square
52
Adjusted
0.8237
R Square
37
42 | P a g e
2.244629334
Standard
0.2598
Error
18
Observati
ons
252
ANOVA
Signific
df
Regressio
n
Residual
244
SS
MS
ance F
79.656
11.37
168.5
88
955
724
1.1E-89
16.471
0.067
33
505
P-
Lower
Upper
Lower
Upper
value
95%
95%
95.0%
95.0%
96.128
Total
251
21
Standa
Coeffici
rd
ents
Error
t Stat
Intercept
43 | P a g e
-2.069
0.6381
3.242
0.001
0.811
3.326
0.811
03
352
3.32605
96
05
96
0.0060
0.0002
26.61
4.26E-
0.006
0.005
0.006
Variable 1
37
27
161
74
0.00559
483
59
483
0.0884
0.0059
14.88
4.18E-
0.07673
0.100
0.076
0.100
Variable 2
29
39
913
36
128
731
128
1.0526
0.0775
13.57
1.22E-
0.89987
1.205
0.899
1.205
Variable 3
28
52
324
31
385
872
385
0.1166
2.681
0.007
0.03094
0.202
0.030
0.202
Variable 4
33
0.0435
206
836
317
949
317
0.1598
0.0422
3.786
0.000
0.07668
0.242
0.076
0.242
Variable 5
13
02
829
192
94
686
94
0.1718
0.0401
4.284
2.64E-
0.09286
0.250
0.092
0.250
Variable 6
99
25
097
05
934
864
934
0.0553
0.0246
2.244
0.025
0.00678
0.103
0.006
0.103
Variable 7
68
67
629
689
956
781
956
(et-etet
et-1
1)^2
et^2
0.064
0.004
87
208
0.082
0.064
0.000
0.006
53
87
312
811
44 | P a g e
0.034
0.082
0.002
0.001
01
53
354
156
0.319
0.034
0.124
0.102
515
01
978
09
0.303
0.319
0.387
0.091
15
515
706
897
0.240
0.303
0.295
0.057
283
15
314
736
0.234
0.240
0.225
0.055
71
283
615
087
0.067
0.234
0.091
0.004
477
71
315
553
0.030
0.067
0.009
0.000
65
477
629
939
0.171
0.030
0.019
0.029
42
65
817
387
4.66E-
0.027
0.164
0.171
05
092
45 | P a g e
42
0.427
0.164
0.350
0.182
301
343
586
0.136
0.427
0.084
0.018
863
301
354
731
0.207
0.136
0.118
0.043
89
863
854
218
0.038
0.207
0.060
0.001
263
89
591
464
0.231
0.038
0.072
0.053
43
263
735
56
0.141
0.231
0.008
0.020
74
43
044
091
0.121
0.141
0.069
0.014
842
74
477
845
0.211
0.121
0.008
0.044
298
842
002
647
0.211
0.199
0.055
0.235
46 | P a g e
16
298
324
0.150
0.235
0.149
0.022
888
16
032
767
0.185
0.150
0.001
0.034
295
888
184
334
0.422
0.185
0.369
0.178
76
295
734
728
0.291
0.422
0.510
0.085
868
76
696
187
0.043
0.291
0.061
0.001
789
868
543
917
0.496
0.043
0.291
0.246
54
789
95
547
0.258
0.496
0.570
0.066
643
54
294
896
0.095
0.258
0.125
0.009
96
643
745
209
0.152
0.061
0.023
327
0.095
47 | P a g e
96
647
203
0.254
0.152
0.010
0.064
83
327
507
938
0.243
0.254
0.248
0.059
41
83
238
246
0.291
0.243
0.002
0.085
92
41
353
216
0.065
0.291
0.051
0.004
94
92
064
349
0.191
0.065
0.066
0.036
093
94
068
516
0.010
0.191
0.040
0.000
95
093
822
12
0.353
0.010
0.132
0.124
227
95
625
769
0.007
0.353
0.129
4.92E-
02
227
774
05
0.307
0.315
48 | P a g e
0.561
0.007
83
02
825
658
0.126
0.561
0.474
0.016
653
83
016
041
0.080
0.126
0.043
0.006
78
653
027
525
0.175
0.080
0.009
0.030
94
78
057
956
0.247
0.175
0.179
0.061
716
94
487
363
0.122
0.247
0.015
0.014
452
716
691
994
0.330
0.122
0.205
0.109
32
452
001
111
0.328
0.330
0.433
0.107
431
32
952
867
0.327
0.328
1.62E-
0.107
157
431
06
032
0.096
0.327
0.053
0.009
49 | P a g e
157
064
37
0.035
0.096
0.003
0.001
781
723
28
0.464
0.035
0.250
0.215
46
781
24
722
0.350
0.464
0.012
0.122
46
941
99
0.148
0.350
0.249
0.022
984
684
196
0.316
0.148
0.028
0.100
935
984
207
448
0.158
0.316
0.225
0.024
07
935
634
987
0.032
0.158
0.015
0.001
19
07
847
036
0.214
0.032
0.060
0.045
323
19
768
934
0.214
0.247
0.080
0.283
50 | P a g e
08
323
415
137
0.164
0.283
0.200
0.026
14
08
01
942
0.287
0.164
0.015
0.082
17
14
136
467
0.165
0.287
0.014
0.027
117
17
897
264
0.168
0.165
1.2E-
0.028
582
117
05
42
0.313
0.168
0.232
0.098
81
582
701
476
0.572
0.313
0.066
0.327
81
869
642
0.062
0.572
0.260
0.003
33
176
884
0.053
0.062
0.013
0.002
097
33
322
819
0.087
0.053
0.001
0.007
74
097
698
51 | P a g e
0.368
0.087
0.078
0.135
489
74
82
784
0.314
0.368
0.002
0.098
074
489
961
642
0.251
0.314
0.003
0.063
049
074
972
026
0.467
0.251
0.516
0.218
68
049
578
729
0.080
0.467
0.300
0.006
474
68
478
476
0.414
0.080
0.245
0.172
79
474
282
047
0.022
0.414
0.153
0.000
62
79
79
512
0.064
0.022
0.007
0.004
783
62
64
197
0.237
0.064
0.091
0.056
783
434
453
0.003
0.030
52 | P a g e
0.175
0.237
77
822
897
0.307
0.175
0.233
0.094
66
77
709
654
0.087
0.307
0.048
0.007
754
66
359
701
0.032
0.087
0.003
0.001
738
754
027
072
0.050
0.032
0.006
0.002
13
738
868
513
0.288
0.050
0.114
0.083
375
13
588
16
0.167
0.288
0.207
0.027
03
375
394
899
0.325
0.167
0.242
0.105
38
03
468
872
0.226
0.325
0.009
0.051
653
38
747
372
0.226
0.053
1.63E-
0.004
53 | P a g e
04
653
221
05
0.173
0.004
0.028
0.030
88
04
846
235
0.167
0.173
4.69E-
0.027
03
88
05
0.227
0.167
0.003
0.051
89
03
704
934
0.153
0.227
0.005
0.023
27
89
569
491
0.036
0.153
0.013
0.001
91
27
54
362
0.127
0.036
0.027
0.016
449
91
013
243
0.021
0.127
0.022
0.000
449
097
45
0.082
0.021
0.010
0.006
593
773
822
54 | P a g e
0.266
0.082
0.122
0.071
94
593
175
259
0.041
0.266
0.094
0.001
135
94
913
692
0.039
0.041
1.75E-
0.001
811
135
06
585
0.106
0.039
0.021
0.011
25
811
333
288
0.339
0.106
0.054
0.115
41
25
363
197
0.411
0.339
0.005
0.169
78
41
238
562
0.270
0.411
0.020
0.072
18
78
052
995
0.234
0.270
0.254
0.055
774
18
975
119
0.508
0.234
0.074
0.258
11
774
713
176
55 | P a g e
0.508
0.268
11
438
1E-04
0.063
0.058
-0.01
17
243
0.063
0.241
0.092
0.004
39
336
861
019
-0.01
0.241
336
0.148
0.063
0.044
0.021
088
39
725
93
0.208
0.148
0.003
0.043
143
088
607
323
0.372
0.208
0.027
0.138
527
143
022
777
0.406
0.372
0.001
0.165
402
527
147
163
0.271
0.406
0.459
0.073
53
402
588
727
0.034
0.271
0.056
0.001
08
53
381
161
56 | P a g e
0.179
0.034
0.021
0.032
53
08
157
232
0.205
0.179
0.000
0.042
36
53
667
172
0.338
0.205
0.296
0.114
726
36
027
735
0.154
0.338
0.242
0.023
06
726
843
736
0.458
0.154
0.092
0.210
39
06
616
125
0.420
0.458
0.771
0.176
188
39
906
558
0.459
0.420
0.773
0.210
11
188
164
781
0.066
0.459
0.276
0.004
911
11
697
477
0.073
0.066
4.31E-
0.005
476
911
05
399
57 | P a g e
0.218
0.073
0.085
0.047
13
476
032
579
0.014
0.218
0.054
0.000
299
13
021
204
0.121
0.014
0.018
0.014
08
299
327
66
0.418
0.121
0.088
0.174
25
08
309
93
0.083
0.418
0.111
0.007
95
25
754
048
0.145
0.083
0.052
0.021
638
95
711
21
0.097
0.145
0.002
0.009
122
638
354
433
0.044
0.097
0.002
0.002
915
122
726
017
0.290
0.044
0.060
0.084
204
915
167
218
0.290
0.184
0.019
58 | P a g e
0.139
46
204
608
448
0.307
0.139
0.199
0.094
66
46
912
654
0.351
0.307
0.435
0.123
96
66
877
0.214
0.351
0.321
0.046
856
96
282
163
0.248
0.214
0.001
0.061
507
856
132
755
0.037
0.248
0.044
0.001
054
507
712
373
0.263
0.037
0.090
0.069
98
054
62
684
0.374
0.263
0.407
0.140
554
98
723
291
0.457
0.374
0.006
0.209
739
554
92
525
59 | P a g e
0.127
0.457
0.108
0.016
822
739
845
338
0.032
0.127
0.025
0.001
61
822
738
063
0.237
0.032
0.073
0.056
811
61
126
554
0.186
0.237
0.179
0.034
02
811
634
604
0.532
0.186
0.120
0.283
62
02
134
689
0.391
0.532
0.019
0.153
56
62
316
0.114
0.391
0.076
0.013
56
647
157
0.123
0.114
0.056
0.015
494
739
251
0.284
0.123
0.025
0.080
002
494
763
657
60 | P a g e
0.171
0.284
0.207
0.029
41
002
404
383
0.062
0.171
0.054
0.003
898
41
902
956
0.302
0.062
0.057
0.091
884
898
593
738
0.238
0.302
0.004
0.056
441
884
153
854
0.403
0.238
0.027
0.162
599
441
277
893
0.351
0.403
0.002
0.123
055
599
761
24
0.113
0.351
0.056
0.012
962
055
213
987
0.063
0.113
0.002
0.004
552
962
541
039
0.200
0.063
0.018
0.040
622
552
788
249
0.480
0.200
0.463
0.230
44
622
843
82
0.111
0.350
0.012
61 | P a g e
0.480
375
44
243
404
0.233
0.111
0.014
0.054
375
817
336
0.214
0.233
0.200
0.046
84
652
157
0.361
0.214
0.331
0.130
062
84
665
366
0.219
0.361
0.020
0.048
24
062
113
066
0.183
0.219
0.001
0.033
171
24
301
552
0.444
0.183
0.068
0.197
295
171
186
398
0.068
0.444
0.141
0.004
629
295
125
71
0.448
0.068
0.266
0.200
03
629
94
734
0.160
0.448
0.369
0.025
137
03
872
644
62 | P a g e
0.301
0.160
0.213
0.091
68
137
276
012
0.290
0.301
0.350
0.084
121
68
23
17
0.214
0.290
0.255
0.046
94
121
082
197
0.150
0.214
0.133
0.022
628
94
636
689
0.380
0.150
0.052
0.144
03
628
625
423
0.078
0.380
0.090
0.006
889
03
686
223
0.091
0.078
0.000
0.008
659
889
163
401
0.260
0.091
0.123
0.067
42
659
962
82
0.160
0.260
0.177
0.025
835
42
458
868
0.160
0.041
0.001
63 | P a g e
0.043
07
835
577
855
0.024
0.043
0.004
0.000
812
07
608
616
0.356
0.024
0.145
0.127
812
401
094
0.424
0.356
0.004
0.180
72
654
391
0.003
0.424
0.177
1.38E-
71
72
251
05
0.307
0.003
0.092
0.094
53
71
308
578
0.453
0.307
0.021
0.205
43
53
287
603
0.111
0.453
0.319
0.012
706
43
384
478
0.094
0.111
0.000
0.008
076
706
311
85
64 | P a g e
0.221
0.094
0.016
0.049
676
076
282
14
0.299
0.221
0.271
0.089
51
676
639
709
0.102
0.299
0.161
0.010
016
51
227
407
0.503
0.102
0.366
0.253
59
016
757
602
0.338
0.503
0.709
0.114
993
59
945
916
0.470
0.338
0.655
0.221
58
993
403
442
0.372
0.470
0.711
0.138
758
58
214
949
0.400
0.372
0.598
0.160
82
758
422
656
0.134
0.400
0.287
0.018
952
82
051
212
65 | P a g e
0.027
0.134
0.011
0.000
586
952
527
761
0.077
0.027
0.002
0.006
909
586
532
07
0.052
0.077
0.017
0.002
95
909
125
804
0.003
0.052
0.003
1.3E-
61
95
05
0.381
0.003
0.148
0.145
63
61
412
643
0.248
0.381
0.017
0.061
86
63
629
931
0.365
0.248
0.377
0.133
643
86
614
695
0.283
0.365
0.421
0.080
44
643
304
336
0.061
0.283
0.049
0.003
17
44
742
66 | P a g e
0.018
0.061
0.006
0.000
93
17
417
358
0.234
0.018
0.064
0.054
16
93
052
829
0.278
0.234
0.262
0.077
406
16
72
51
0.086
0.278
0.133
0.007
38
406
065
461
0.054
0.086
0.019
771
38
922
0.003
0.119
0.054
0.030
0.014
41
771
338
258
0.101
0.119
0.048
0.010
444
41
775
291
0.324
0.101
0.049
0.105
622
444
808
379
0.459
0.324
0.614
0.211
39
622
678
041
67 | P a g e
-0.428
0.459
0.000
0.183
39
986
182
0.045
0.045
956
635
0.213
62
-0.428
0.296
0.213
0.260
0.087
475
62
201
898
0.174
0.296
0.222
0.030
78
475
08
548
0.113
0.174
0.083
0.012
373
78
031
853
0.128
0.113
0.000
0.016
409
373
226
489
0.026
0.128
0.010
0.000
946
409
295
726
0.079
0.026
0.011
0.006
76
946
386
361
0.018
0.079
0.009
0.000
652
76
684
348
68 | P a g e
0.127
0.018
0.011
0.016
427
652
832
238
0.207
0.127
0.112
0.042
26
427
018
958
0.060
0.207
0.021
0.003
26
599
636
0.300
0.060
0.130
0.090
336
057
202
0.548
0.300
0.061
0.300
239
336
456
566
0.151
0.548
0.489
0.022
53
239
675
961
0.457
0.151
0.371
0.209
903
53
407
675
0.294
0.457
0.026
0.086
952
903
553
997
0.093
0.294
0.150
0.008
22
952
676
69
0.186
0.078
0.034
69 | P a g e
0.093
432
22
204
757
0.366
0.186
0.305
0.134
21
432
41
108
0.236
0.366
0.363
0.056
849
21
678
098
0.355
0.236
0.014
0.126
441
849
064
338
0.211
0.355
0.321
0.044
89
441
86
896
0.118
0.211
0.109
0.014
559
89
194
056
0.285
0.118
0.163
0.081
86
559
552
714
0.177
0.285
0.011
0.031
44
86
754
486
0.191
0.177
0.135
0.036
211
44
905
561
70 | P a g e
0.474
0.191
0.443
0.225
81
211
58
442
0.106
0.474
0.338
0.011
66
81
104
376
0.230
0.106
0.113
0.053
51
66
682
134
0.310
0.230
0.006
0.096
54
51
405
436
0.080
0.310
0.152
0.006
055
54
566
409
0.183
0.080
0.010
0.033
961
055
796
842
0.316
0.183
0.250
0.099
16
961
12
956
0.181
0.316
0.018
0.032
04
16
258
775
0.334
0.181
0.265
0.111
089
04
356
616
71 | P a g e
0.365
0.334
0.000
0.133
155
089
965
338
0.071
0.365
0.086
0.005
765
155
078
15
0.253
0.071
0.105
0.064
29
765
664
158
0.306
0.253
0.312
0.093
011
29
823
643
0.346
0.306
0.425
0.119
08
011
218
769
34.97
16.47
46
133
2.123
DW
362
DU
1.78
DL
1.57
DW>D
Accept this
model
72 | P a g e
73 | P a g e
6. References
Statrek, Important statistic formulas, Statrek 2012, viewed on 20th August 2012,
<http://stattrek.com/statistics/formulas.aspx>
McClave and Sincich (2011) First Course in Statistics, A: International Edition,
10th Edition
McClave and Sincich (2009) First Course in Statistics, A: International Edition,
10th Edition
Devore, J.L. (2004). Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences (7th
Edition)Brook/Cole
Keller & Warrack. Statistics for Management and Economics (6th Edition)
Mathematical Statistics with Applications (3rd Edition) Wadsworth
Berenson et al. (2010). Basic Business Statistics, Second edition, Pearson
Black, K and J Asafu-Adjaye and N Khan and N Perera and P Edwards and M Harris
Australasian Business Statistics, 2nd Edition, Wiley, 2009
The Baike of Baidu 2011, Cow Disease, Baidu, China, viewed as 16th Aug, 2011
<http://baike.baidu.com/view/22501.html?wtp=tt>
Statistical Methods for Social Sciences(criminology research),viewed on 18th August 2012.
(research paper). <http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/sas/dae/rreg.htm>
Ding 2006, Using Regression Mixture Analysis in Education Research, Practical
Assessment, Research & Evaluation, viewed 20 August 2012,
<http://pareonline.net/pdf/v11n11.pdf>
Arayesh 2010, Regression analysis of effective factor on people participation in protecting
and revitalizing of pastures and forests in Ilam province from the view of users, African
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75 | P a g e