Professional Documents
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56643
(CDM)()
CDM
CDM
CDM ;
CDM CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
010-62782989
13801310933
CIP
/ .
2005.1
ISBN 7-302-10173-6
.
CIP
.
2004
2 .
. X383
135973
http://www.tup.com.cn
010-62770175
100084
010-62776969
010 62770175-3103 010 62795704
()
CDM
CDM
CDM
7
13
15
17
19
20
20
23
25
CDM
CDM
28
28
32
35
1.1
1.2
1.2.1 CDM
1.2.2
1.3
1.3.1
1
3
3
4
4
5
5
5
1.3.2
1.3.3
1.3.4
2.1 CDM
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3
2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
2.3.4
2.3.5
2.4
2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.5
2.5.1
2.5.2 ICER
2.5.3
2.5.4
2.6 CDM
2.6.1 CDM
2.6.2 CDM
3.1
3.1.1
3.1.2
3.1.3
3.1.4 CDM
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2 CDM
3.2.3 CDM
6
6
6
8
8
10
11
12
14
14
15
16
19
21
25
26
27
27
30
30
32
32
36
37
37
38
39
41
41
41
42
43
43
44
44
44
47
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.2.4 CDM
3.2.5
3.3.1 ()
3.3.2
3.3.3 ()
3.3.4 ()
3.3.5
3.3.6
3.4.1
3.4.2 CDM
3.4.3
CDM
3.5.1 CDM
3.5.2 CDM
3.5.3 CDM
3.7.1 CDM
3.7.2 CDM
3.7.3 CDM
3.7.4 CDM
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.3.1 IPAC-Emission
4.3.2 IPAC-AIM/Technology
4.3.3 CERT
4.3.4
5.1
5.1.1
5.1.2
47
47
50
51
52
55
57
58
60
62
62
66
69
72
72
72
74
74
78
78
79
80
81
83
85
85
85
86
86
87
88
91
93
93
93
95
5.1.3
96
5.2
101
5.2.1
101
5.2.2 CERT
104
5.2.3 CERT
113
5.3 CDM
114
5.3.1
114
5.3.2
114
5.3.3 CDM
117
5.3.4 CDM
118
5.3.5 CDM
120
5.4
121
5.5
125
128
6.1 IPAC-SGM
128
6.1.1 IPAC-SGM
128
6.1.2 IPAC-SGM CDM
129
6.2
130
6.3 CDM GDP
133
6.4
134
136
7.1
136
7.1.1 CDM
136
7.1.2 CDM
139
7.1.3
140
7.2
141
7.2.1
141
7.2.2 CDM
143
7.2.3
146
172
C D-ROM
178
3-E
AAUs
ABARE
AC
ADB
AIJ
AIM
ALGAS
AMI
BAU
BJ3TPP
BP
BOF
C5
CAAS
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ce
alternating current
Asian Development Bank
activities implemented jointly
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10
NGO
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NPC
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ODA
OE
OECD
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()
operation and maintenance
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operational entity
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Pacific Parts of OECD
European and Canadian Parts of OECD
11
SECO
SEA
SEPA
SERC
SETC
SF6
SGM
SH
SICP
SO2
TAG
Tce
Toe
TOR
TRT
TWh
UNCED
UNDP
UNFCCC
US
VAT
WB
12
sulfur dioxide
technical advisory group
ton of coal equivalent
ton of oil equivalent
terms of reference
top gas pressure recovery turbine
terawatt-hour TWh 109 kWh
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
United States
value added tax
World Bank
(clean development
mechanism CDM)
2001 4
(MOST)
(Deutsche Gesellschaft fr
Technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ)
(Federal
Ministry for Economic Cooperation and
Development)
(Swiss State Secretariat for Economic
Affairs SECO)
CDM
CDM
50%
13
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
2
1
2004 7 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM 2
14
CDM
2
Clean Development
Mechanism in China
Taking a Proactive
and Sustainable Approach
(GTZ)
(SECO)
(The
Study on the Methodologies and its
Application
of
Clean
Development
Mechanism in China) ( CDM
)
(INET)
(GCCI)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
*
15
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM /
CDM
16
CDM
CDM
CDM
(GCCI)
Ernst Basler
& Partners
GTZ
INTEGRATION
Deutsche Ges ellschaft fr Technische
Zusammenarbeit GTZ
CD-ROM
CDM
(ERI / NDRC)
(IEE) -(3-E)
(INET)
(DTE)
()
(AMI /CAAS)
( NDRC
SDPC)
(
GCCI Vendor Manager) (
GCCI ) (
GCCI )
( IEE) (
AMI) ( DTE) (
GCCI) ( GCCI)
()
( GCCI )
( NDRC) (
INET) ( INET)
( INET) (
INET) ( 3-E) (
3-E) ( 3-E)
( 3-E CDM )
( ERI)
( 3-E)(
3-E)
17
()
-
()
()
Ernst Basler & Partners INFRAS
Othmar Schwank (
) Markus Sommerhalder Gerard
Sarlos Juerg Fuessler Juerg Gruetter
INTEGRATION
Andreas Oberheitmann (GTZ )
Gert Oljeklaus
Fenno Br unken
Gunther Haupt
2 IMET, -
,
CDM
18
CD-ROM 7
(TAG)
(
) ()
( ) Anne
Arquit Niederberger ( Policy Solutions)
Michael Rumberg (TV Sddeutschland)
2003 12
()
() (
) Franck Lecocq Neeraj
Prasad Daniel Hoornweg Todd Johnson
Masaya Inamuro Liu Feng Nuyi Tao
Salvador Rivera Chandra Shekhar Sinha
Andres Liebenthal Robert Crooks Robin
Broadfield ()(
)
Robert Livernash ()
Circle Graphics
Denise Marie Bergeron
Circle Graphics Anne Arquit
Niederberger
CDM
CDM
2010 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
2008 2012
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
CDM
l
/
CDM
19
CDM
CDM
(CDM)
( KP1997)
CDM
( UNFCCC)
(GHG)
(CERs)
GHG
CDM
CDM
( )
CDM
2001 11
UNFCCC 7
20
( CDM)
CDM
CDM
CDM (EB)
CDM
CDM
1992
2002 8
CDM
2004
CDM
20
1998
2002 5800
GDP 1.29%
1988 13% 16.7%
35kV
78 km 2000
7.7% 11
kVA 2000 12.2%
7% 2020 GDP
5.5%
6.0% 2010 6.5%
7.0% 1980 2000
( I.1)
2000
66%
1997 2000
2001
9.24 t 2002 10.15 t
2003 10.80 t
1990
(CO2 )
2001
3.386 kW 14838
kWh 6.0% 8.4% 2001
81% 2001
I.1
(%)
(Mtoe)
1980
422
72.2
20.7
3.1
4.0
1990
691
76.2
16.6
2.1
5.1
2000
912
65.9
24.5
2.5
6.7
0.4
21
I.1 CO 2
5.7~18.5Mt CH4
(LULUCF)
12.6 ~20.9 Mt CH4
1.54 ~
3.15 t CO2 1990 2002 CO2
I.1
80% CO2
I.2 CO2
(41%)
GHG ( N2 O HFCs PFCs
SF6 ) CO2
CDM
CDM
(a) GHG
(b) (c)
22
1990 2002
I.2
CO 2
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
I.2
CDM
CDM
CDM
GTZ
SECO
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
CDM
CDM
(
) (CERUPT
CDM )
34.5MW 2001
9 600kW
2002 1 10 600kW
2002 2002 12
2003 9
CDM CO2
60024.8t 10
600248t
2002 CERUPT
CO2
CERs 5.4 /tCO2
(, PDD CDM
EB
)
CERUPT CDM
CDM
CDM
( XHP)
23
I. 2
WB / GTZ
(C5)
CDM
(3-E)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
(MAC) CER
UNDP
CDM
BP
ADB
CDM
1. CDM
2. CDM
CDM
3. CDM,
CDM
4. CDM ,
2002
CDM
CDM
1. CDM
2004
PDD
2002
PDD
2004
2003
2002
CDM
CDM
CDM GHG
CDM
CDM CDM
2001
2005
2002
2003
2004
2006
CDM
CDM
PDD
PDD
PDD
1. CDM
2. CDM
2.
3. CDM PDD
3.
4. CDM
(WB)
(PCF) XHP
98MW
110kV
2003
2005
CDM CO2
372300t 10
CO2 3723000t
XHP
PCF 2003 10
(PCN)
2003 11
XHP
PCF
XHP CO2
4 /tCO2 PCF
PCF XHP
(ERPA) 2004
CDM
1997
(NSS)
CDM
CDM
CDM GHG
GHG
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM (PDD)
CDM
GTZ
CDM
1
CDM
1.
CDM
CDM
2. (
)
CDM
CDM ,
3.
CDM CERs
CDM
CERs/CDM
1 / GTZ/
SECOCDM,
25
CDM
CDM
() CDM
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
CDM
l
(
)
CDM
CDM PDDs
l
CDM
CERs
(MAC)
CDM
CERs
CDM
CDM
26
CDM
(Task)
Task 1
Task 2 CDM
Task 3 CDM
I.3
Task 1 Task 2
Task 1 Task 2 CDM
Task 2 CDM
Task 2 Task 1
Task 1 CDM
Task 3 Task 2
Task 3 IPAC-AIM
2010 CO2
CO2
Task 3
Task 2
CDM
CDM Task 1
Task 2 CDM
CDM
Task 3
/ GTZ/
SECO
CDM
/
GTZ/ SECO
I.3 Task 1 2 3
(MOST )
GTZ SECO
(SICP)
Task
Task
(GCCI)
(NPC)
GCCI INET 3-E
Task 1 2 3
GCCI
CD-ROM
NPC
TOR
CD-ROM
CD-ROM
(TAG)
GTZ
27
CDM
SECO
(GTZ)
l
CDM
CERs
l
CDM
1
CDM
CDM
CDM
GHG
CDM
()
CDM
CDM
CDM
T.1 CDM
COP
CDM
UNFCCC
28
CDM
l
CDM
T.1 CDM
(project boundary)
(GHG)/
(leakage)
(GHG)
(baseline)
CDM CDM
A
(additionality)
CDM GHG CDM
CDM
(
/) CDM (CERs)
CERs (/tCO2)
CDM CERs
CDM
()
CDM
GHG
(1)
;
(2)
(3) (
)
(4)
29
/
/ (
)
AIJ
30
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
( CDM
)
CDM
CDM
CDM
(ICER)
CDM
CDM
CERs
CERs
CDM
/
CDM
31
CERs
(ICER)
ICER
(ICER) CDM
GHG
CERs
CDM
CDM
(CERs)
CERs
CDM
CDM , CERs
CERs
CDM
32
CDM
CDM
CER
CDM
l
CER
CDM
0.8 /t CO2
0.6 /t CO2
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
PDD
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
T.2
( CD-ROM )
CDM PDD
( CD-ROM )
CDM EB
l
EB
l
UNFCCC
PDD
l
Task
()
l
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
T.2
MW
CO 2-
( t/a)
1. -()
1136
87.6
2.
3. -()
128
404
53.4
65.0
4. ()
20
3.6
5.
6.
4
1.7
2.7
7.2
33
GHG
PDD
EB
COP7 17
(Decision 17/CP7)
48(b) 48(c)
48(a)
(operation margin)
(build margin)1
48(a)
34
CDM
CDM
(BAU the
business as usual)
T.3
T.3
CDM
CDM
2.5MtCO2
(ICER)
3.60 /t CO2 50 /t CO2
5.20 /t CO2 6.50 /t CO2
CER
l
(
)
()
ICER 10 /t CO 2
T.3
> 10 /t CO2
< 10 /tCO2
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
? CERs
?
?
CERs? 2
?
-
(IPAC-emission IPAC-AIM
technology) (CERT)
(IPAC-SGM)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
2010
2010
1990 36.5% 2010
7.8%
2000 2010
1.18%
GHG 2000
3080Mt CO2 2010 4000Mt
CO2
(MAC) IPAC
35
T.1 CO 2 (MACs)
( T.1)
EPPA GTEM
MAC IPAC
20 90
2010 GHG
IPAC
IPAC
1371Mt CO2
(10%
) (EITs)
800Mt CO2 IPAC
MACs
() CERT
36
2010
IPAC
2010 CDM
164Mt CO2
10%
1 EFSU
30% CDM
(EU) 50%
0.54 /t CO2 CDM
EFSU
CDM
T.4
2001 WB-NSS
2003
1 2002 2 14
: , 2002 2012
18%, 13%
, 2012 1990 29%,
36% BAU +15%,
+31% +38% , 5%
((3836)/ 38 100) , BAU
,
2010 CDM
24.9 ~111.6MtCO2 CER
5.2~6.5 /tCO2
50% CDM
( 52~240 MtCO2 )
JI
JI ERUs
T.2
T.2 T.3
11% CDM
50% 2010 CDM
79.2Mt CO2
CERs
(300~600MW) CDM
2006 2007
CO2
T. 4
T.2
CDM
CDM
CDM
0~7.30 /tCO2
0~211MtCO2
GHG
CER
CDM
CER
MtCO2
MtCO2 (2010 )
/CO 2
0~161
0~6
(2010 )
IPAC ,
IPAC ,(10%)
1243
1371
0~164
0~7
Grubb 2003
415~1250**
50 - 180
0~13.8
2001 WB-NSS*
1300 ~3000
300 ~2000
1.7~10
330 ~360
6~12
1140
** 15 50%
37
T.3
(DA)
() BAU (
)
(
) 2010 CDM
()
CDM
(RMUs CERs ERUs AAUs)
JI
CDM ET (AAU)
CDM 164MtCO2
CER
CERT
7~12 /tCO2
38
JI ET CDM ()
IPAC-AIM
(760MtCO2/a) 13.60 /tCO2
CDM 79 MtCO2 CDM
MAC
CER CDM
CDM
()5
/tCO2
CDM
(MAC)
( T.4) , /
/
T.4
(2010 )
CDM 50% 2000
CDM (10%)
(5%)
(15%)
CO2 GHG (10%)
-
CO2 ( HFC)
CDM
( 2010 2020 )
CER (25~117Mt
CO2 ) 0.77 ~3.11
GDP
CDM
39
CDM
1.1
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
EB
CDM
CDM
EB
CDM
CDM
CDM
CERs
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
COP7
COP8 COP9
CDM
CDM
1 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
PDD
(1.2 )
CDM
(1.3 )
1.2
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
(a) CDM
(b)
1.2.1 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
1.3
2
3
CDM
CDM
CDM
( 2 ) (
3 )
2
1.2.2
1.3.1
CDM
CDM
1 CDM
1.3.2
CDM
CDM
1.3.4
CDM
( ICER
)
CERs
ICER ICER
ICER
3
2 3.1
3.2
25
( 1.1 )
1.1
1
1.3.3
2
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
3
4
5
6
-
()
()
3.3
3.4
3.5
CDM
CDM
CDM
1
(3.7 )
1 CDM
2
CDM
1997 12
COP7
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM 2.1
CDM
2.2 2.5
CDM
2.6
CDM
CDM
2.1 CDM
CDM
2.1
CDM
1992
1997
2001
12 CDM
2 CDM
2.1 CDM
COP6 COP7
4
CDM
COP7
CDM
CDM
(COP/ MOP)
CDM
CDM
(
UNFCCC
) CDM
UNFCCC
( COP/MOP CDM
)(
)
CDM
CDM
(Oberheitmann 1999)
CDM
1 CDM
2.2 CDM/JI
PDD
CERs
10
CDM
CDM
2.2
CDM
2.2.1
2.2.2
2 CDM
2.2.3
2.2.1
CDM
UNFCCC
CDM
(UNFCCC 2001(b))
CDM
(UNFCCC 2001(b))
()
2003 12 COP9
CDM
(UNFCCC
2003(a))
CDM
11
1 CDM
2.2.2
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
10%
2.3
12
2 CDM
(
)
50%
5%
//
13
1 CDM
()
(IPCC 2000)
14
CERs
2.2.3
IPCC
2.3
CDM
2 CDM
(2.3.1 )
(2.3.2 )
(2.3.3 )
(2.3.4 )
(2.3.5 )
2.3.1
Matsuo
2000
Ellis
1999
UNFCCC http
//cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CERs
2.4
CDM
NVROM 2001
CO2
2001 2003 12
12 (
1) CDM (EB)
CDM
EB 2004
3 13
9
EB
15
1 CDM
48(b) /
(
) 48(c)
20%
2.3.2.1
2.4 CDM
2.3.2
CDM
CDM 48
CDM
48(a)
16
2 CDM
2.1
Lazarus 1999
2.1
()
(Ellis 1999)
CDM
2.2
2.2
17
1 CDM
2.3.2.2
2.3
tCO2
UNFCCC
(AIJ) 2 95 AIJ
UNFCCC 1998
Ellis
1999
Rusafor
(Michaelowa 1998)
AIJ 4
(Basler 1999)
()
2.3
18
175000
41000
430000
43000
180000
21000
195000
22000
Basler 1999
2.3
(
)
2.5
2 CDM
(CCAP)
Decin AIJ
(CCAP
1999)
3
AIJ
(Bois 2000)
(Salon 2001)
(Violette 2000)
-
2.3.3
10 2.4 2.5
(
CO2 )
19
1 CDM
2.4
CDM/AIJ
(P)
(M)
(T)
(S)
2.5
(PFBC)
(CFBC)/(CHP)
10
20
2 CDM
2.5
2.3.4
2.3.4.1
CO2
2.5
CDM
//
Michaelowa 1999
()
21
1 CDM
(Ellis and
Bosi 1999 Chomitz 1998)
2.3.4.2
Chomitz (1998)
Willems (2000)
22
(
)
(a)
(b)
(c)
20%
(1)
(2) 10
CDM
CDM
CDM
a
b
CDM-PDD
AIJ
AIJ
/
2 CDM
AIJ UNFCCC
2.3.4.3
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
/
/
23
1 CDM
/
/
2.3.4.4
2.6
gC/kWh
(%)
24
GCCI
CDM
2.6
gC/kWh
300
10
50
40
150
20
60
20
180
2 CDM
150gC/kWh
180gC/kWh
2.3.4.5
()
2.3.5
CDM CDM
25
1 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
20%
CDM
CDM
(a)
26
20%
(b)
(
) 20%
CDM
2.4
CERs (Oberheitmann
2 CDM
1999) CDM
(2.4.1 )
(2.4.2 )(2.4.3 )
2.4.1
2.4.1.1
CDM
( UNFCCC 2001(b))
2003 12 12
CDM
CDM
( 2.4.2
)
CDM
CDM
2.4.1.2
CDM
CDM
CER
CDM
2.4.2
CDM
/
l
CDM
43 44
43
27
1 CDM
44
A
37 38
CDM
COP CDM
(/)
(1)
(2)
(a)
(b)
(c)
(
CDM )
(d)
(
)
/
28
CDM
1)
43 44
CDM
CDM
CDM
( tCO2 /GWh)
( tCO2 ) CDM
8
CO2
CO2
CO2
2 CDM
IPCC
2)
CDM
(ODA)
ODA CERs
CDM
CDM
3)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
(IRR)
( NPV)
CDM
CDM
CDM
4)
CDM
CDM
CDM
(1)
(2)
(3)
29
1 CDM
5)
CDM
CDM
l
/
l
2.7
30
2.7
2.4.3
CDM
CDM
2.5
CDM
2 CDM
( CDM
) CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
/
CDM
CERs
CDM
CDM
CERs
/tCO2
CDM
CERs
CDM
CERs
CDM
CERs JI ERUs
ET AAUs
( )
CERs (Oberheitmann
2003)
CERs
:
/
CDM
CERs
(ICER)
(ICER)
CDM
GHG
CERs
31
1 CDM
CDM
(Su M 2004)
(2.5.1 ) ICER
(2.5.2 )
(2.5.3 )
3
2.5.1
CDM
CERs
CERs
2.6 2.7
CDM ICER
CERs (2-1)
2.7 CDM
ICERT CDM
CERs
CcdmDCT CDM
N
C cdmDC i
C cdmDCT =
(1+ r )i
i =1
(2-2)
C bsl DC i
C bsl DCT =
i
i =1 (1+ r )
(2-3)
Cbsl DCi i
CTRN CDM
2.5.2.2
CTRN
(2-5)(2-8)
N CDM N
2.5.2 ICER
2.6
32
2.5.2.1
CDM
(King
2 CDM
1995)
ER i CDM i
ERi = EMBSLi EMCDM i (2-4)
ICERi i
(C DC i Cbsl DCi )
ICERi = cdm
ERi
(2-5)
(Ccdm DC i Cbsl DCi )
=
( EMBSLi EMCDM i )
CDM CERs
=
i =1
ICERi ERi
(1 + r )i
(2-6)
CDM
ICERi ICER CDM
CERs
ICERT (2-6)
(2-7)
ICERT = (C cdm DCT Cbsl DCT )
N
=
i =1
ICER ERi
(1 + r )i
(2-7)
ERi
= ICER
(1
+ r )i
i =1
= ICER ER
(
DCT C bslDCT )
ICER = C cdm
ER
(2-8)
ERi
ER =
i CDM
i =1 (1 + r )
N
CDM
CDM
ICERT CDM
ER
CDM
N
CDM
ERi (i
)
N
ICER 6
2.8
6 (ICER)
(ICERT)
5
ICER
33
1 CDM
2.8
ICER ICERT
ICER
ICERT
ICERT =
i =1
ICERi ERi
=
(1 + r )i
i =1
(C DCT C bslDCT )
ICER = cdm
ER
j =1
2
ICERT =
j= 1
2
=
j =1
i= 1
N
i =1
(1 + r ) i
ICERT =
i =1
ICERT =
i= 1
ICERi ERi
=
(1 + r) i
i= 1
N
: 1)
2)
i =1
ICERi ERi
=
(1 + r )i
i =1
N
ICERT =
i =1
ICERi ERi
=
(1 + r )i
i =1
N
ICER
34
ICERT =
CDM
CDM
2 CDM
N +
C cdmOTR i
C cdm DCT =
(1+r )i
i =1
(2-9)
Ccdm INV i i CDM
Ccdm ENE i i
Ccdm OTRi i
Ccdm MNT i i
Ccdm LABi i
r i i
(2-10)
C bsl INV i + C bsl ENE i
+
N +
C bsl OTR i
C bsl DCT =
i
(1+ r )
i =1
(2-10)
(2-9)
(2-9)(2-10)
CDM
CDM
CDM
2.5.2.2
AIJ CDM
CDM
CDM
(CSER) (CPDD)
(CNEG) (CVAL)
(CREG) (CMON)
(CVER)
(SOPA)1 CDM
(2-11)
CTRN = CSER + CPDD + CNEG
(2-11)
+ CVAL + CREG
+ CMON + CVER + SOPA
CDM
2
1 CERs
, Michaelowa (2003)
Michaelowa1 Jotzo (2003)
2 ,
35
1 CDM
2.9
CDM
()
35000
15000
33000
20000
30000
10000
22000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
8000
8000
2000
2000
225203
165203
2008 2012
()
3.6 / tCO2
2.9
2.5.3
0.8 /tCO2 (
)
0.6 /tCO2
CDM
( Michaelowa 2003)
CDM
CDM
36
CDM
(Global
Environment Facility GEF)
GEF
PRINCE Program for Measuring
Incremental Cost for the Environment
PRINCE GEF
Mintzer 1993
1993
GEF
King (1995)
2 CDM
AIJ
CDM
CERs
ICER
l
CDM
l
CDM
2.5.4
CDM
CERs
(ICER)
NPV IRR
CERs
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
CDM
4
MAC
1)
2)
3)
2.6 CDM
CDM
37
1 CDM
CDM
(DNA)
CDM
CDM
( 2 )
( IISD(2002))
2002 8
CDM
CDM
2004 7 1
CDM
l
CER
CDM
l
l
CDM
(
)
CDM
(
)
CDM
2.6.1 CDM
CDM
CDM DNA
CDM CDM
(1)
15
1990 1998
CDM
CDM
l
()
38
1 :
2 CDM
(2)
()
l
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
l
1
(3) CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
2.6.2 CDM
1.
1
CDM
l
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
l
CDM
2.
CDM
CDM
a)
CDM
b)
CDM
c) CDM
39
1 CDM
d)
CDM
CDM
l
CDM CDM
40
l
CDM
3. CDM
CDM
(i)
CDM
(ii) CDM
(iii)
CDM CDM
CERs
l
3 CDM
3
CDM
3 CDM
6
CDM
3.1
3.1.1
2001 338.6GW
1483.8TWh 2000
6.0% 8.4%
7%
5.5% 6%
2010 6.5%
7%
2001 2002
9% 11.7%
2003
20
2005
30GW
2005 430GW
2001 35kV
7.8105 km 2000
7.67% 1.1109 kVA
2000 12.2 %
2001 81%
CDM
3.1
3.2
35.1%
45%
2 3
41
1 CDM
3.1
CDM (2001 )
6.2
0.0
93.8
100
93.6
95.1
0.1
4.9
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
98.8
100.0
0.2
13.7
99.8
86.3
99.5
85.9
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
4.5
99.9
95.5
23.0
77.0
53.2
8.4
15.4
14.9
85.1
8.6
91.4
85.5
2.8
3.1
4.1
95.9
2001
3.2
(gCE/kWh e )
(%)
(%)
384
32.0
350
35.1
378
32.5
410
30.0
363
33.8
377
33.0
2001
3.1.2
2002
5
2003
42
()
l
1 , , ,
3 CDM
2005
CDM
25GW
300MW
3.1.3
3.1.4 CDM
3.3
CDM
()
3.3
CDM
(2004 ) 3
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
43
1 CDM
(
)
CDM
300 MW
,,
CDM 48. a
3.2
3.2.1
4
(1) CDM
CDM
(
25 )
(ALGAS)
(2)
CDM
;
44
(3) CDM
(4) CDM
15
25 CDM
CDM
3.2.2 CDM
3.4 25
CDM
1)
3 CDM
60%
3)
CO2
CO2
2)
46%
( 30MPa
700C )
CO2
25 CDM
2012
CDM
1)
(/CO2)
2)
. (G-SCC)
1
2 300MW G-SCC
15
300M W
2.67 Nm3
2 42MW G-SCC 25
4
5
G-SCC
3
3
3
45
1 CDM
CDM
2012
1)
(/CO2)
2)
1.4GW G-SCC
10~20
10
2 600MW CFSC
2 600MW CFSC
. (CFSC)
11
12
2 600MW CFSC
13
8.5
12~20
8~18
2 800MW
CFSC
.
14
1600t
15
16
25~40
3500t
25~40
1000t
25~40
25~40
225GWh
70GWh
17
450t
61.2GWh
18
20~40MW 50
46~92GWh
19
45000m3/d 22
20
3
3
26GWh
15~22
20~28
10MW (52MW)
46~92GWh
21
22
700kW
4.75GWh
20 GWh
46
3 CDM
23
24
CDM
2012
1)
2)
(/CO2)
3000t
20~40
20 0.97 M W
8~20
2 0.97 MW
25
1) 6 ,
CDM
2)
4 4
3 2
CDM
3.2.3 CDM
CDM
3.5
a) CDM b)
c)
d)
3.2.4 CDM
3.6
CDM
CDM
3.2.5
CDM
1)
CDM
( )
,
CDM CERs
CERs
CDM
CDM
2) CDM
CDM
47
1 CDM
. CDM
1
(GHG)
CDM GHG
CDM GHG
CDM
CDM ,
CDM
(CERs)
CERs (ODA)(GEF)
3
CDM ,
4
5
6
CDM /
GHG
CDM , GHG
CDM
7
8
CDM
SO2
NOx
TSP
CDM
.
9
CDM
GHG CER
10
CDM CDM
CDM
11
CDM
CDM CERs
.
12
13
CDM
1
i) ii) iii)
48
3 CDM
CDM
2 42MW 5
18
20~40MW
46~
4.92
92 GWh
3
300MW 4.9
2.67 Nm3
4
5
25
19
2 0.97 MW
4.88
10
2 600MW CFSC
22
4MW (41MW)
2 200MW G-SCC
4.7
4 300MW G-SCC
4.7
10
21
700kW 4.75GWh
4.66
11
1 300MW G-SCC
4.6
12
20
10MW (52MW)
13
2 300MW G-SCC
14
24
20 0.97MW 4.48
15
23
3000t
4.46
16
2 300MW G-SCC
4.4
17
1.4GW G-SCC
4.4
18
2 300MW G-SCC
4.4
19
15
3500t
4.38
20
16
3000t
4.38
4.78
20GWh 4.72
4.52
46~92GWh
4.5
70GWh
21
12
2 600MW CFSC
22
17
450t 61.2GWh4.28
23
13
24
14
4.29
2 800MW CFSC
1600t
3.56
225GWh
25
11
2 600MW CFSC
3.37
49
1 CDM
i)
, CDM
ii)
CERs
iii) CDM ()
3)
CDM
CDM
CDM
4) CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
5) CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
50
3.3
CD-ROM
1
CER
2 3
CDM
4
CO2
CDM
5
CO2 CDM
3 CDM
CO2
CER
3 7
CO2
3.7
CDM
3.3.1
()
2600 MW 41.37%
24.2MPa
566C
30MPa 610C (
45 %)
CD-ROM
35.4%
3.7
MW
1136
1136
h/a
5500
5500
GWh/a
6250
6250
GWhf /a
17649
15107
35.4
41.37
5460.72
6331.01
/kW
4805
5571
CDM
51
1 CDM
/kWhf
0.018
0.018
25
25
15
15
/(kWe a)
283.26
247.81
g CO2/kWhf
g CO2/kWhe
345
973
345
833
g CO2/kWhf
CO2
kg CO2/kWhe
0.140
3 7 CO2
M t CO2
12.264
CO2
M t CO2/a
0.876
/kWhe
0.010
/t CO2
70.04
/t CO2
8.47
CDM
37
CO2
kWhf
kWhe
CO2
CO2
2000
1) kWhf
kWhe ()
kWhth
2)
3)
4)
5) = 8.27 /
6) 3 7
14
3.3.2
98
52
2005
2006 2015
3 CDM
3.8
10
3.8
CDM
MW
128
128/a
h/a
4281
4281
GWh/a
548
548
875
875
1423
1423
GWhf /a
1883
694
551
1566
2811
67
33.7
70
56
734.72
675
114
789
/kW
5104
5754/b
/kWhf
0.038
0.143
10
25
25
15
15
/(kWe a)
333
1258
53
1 CDM
CDM
CO2
g CO2/ kWhf
349
g CO2/ kWhf
201
kg CO2/kWhe
0.686
CO2
CO2
0.183
M t CO2
5.3585
10 CO2
kg CO2/kWhth
CO2
MtCO 2/a
0.53585
/kWh
0.2017
CO2
/t CO2
206.29
/t CO2
24.94
2000
a/ 133MW 4%;
b/ 5524 /kWe 4%
CDM
3.9
3.9
GHG
MWh/a
TJ/a
CDM CO2
(2006
2015)
CDM
M m /a
CDM
MJ/m
(2006
CO2
54
2015)
CDM
CO2
3 CDM
3.3.3
()
1992 1997 8 %
10%
2005
55%
30 kW
BJ3TPP
30 kW
3.10
30 kW
37
3.10
CDM
MW
404.3
404.3
h/a
3500
3500
GWh/a
1413.6
1413.6
GWhf/a
4038.8
2425.42
35
57
1454.40
1600.75
/kW
4848
4106
/kWhf
0.03563
0.116 ~ 0.143
37
25
25
15
15
/(kWe a)
141.22
131.74
g CO2/ kWhf
326
CO2
55
1 CDM
CO2
CDM
198.66
CO2
kg CO2/kWhe
0.460
37 CO2
M t CO2
9.1
CO2
M t CO2/a
0.65
/kWhe
0.086
/t CO2
124.08
/t CO2
15.00
CO2
2000
CO2
30
kW CDM
30 kW
3.11
3.12
3.11
30 kW
h/a
kWh/a
M J/t
CDM
h/a
kWh/a
m3/a
3.12
56
g CO2/ kWhf
CO2
l
(NDRC)
l
(BJMPDC)
l
(SEPA)
l
(BJMEPB)
l
(BJMWRA)
l
l
-
l
CDM
CDM
CER
3 CDM
3.3.4 ()
64.5%
3000MW
3.13
CDM
6
-6
(48b)
37
CER
3.13
CDM
MW
20
h/a
2000
GWh/a
40
GWhf/a
N/A
N/A
182.57
/kW
9128
/kWhf
0.0467
10
25
15
/(kWe a)
193.24
g CO2/ kWhf
327
g CO2/ kWhf
CO2
CO2
57
1 CDM
CO2
kg CO2/kWhel
37 CO2
CO2
Mt CO 2
Mt CO 2/a
0.5082
0.0363
/kWhel
0.372
CO2
/t CO2
/t CO2
411.73
49.79
CDM
3.3.5
58
CDM
0.91
2000
COD
70%
l
1
(48a)
l
2
3 CDM
(operating margin)
(48b)
6
(operating
margin) (48b)
7
(48c)
2005 1
10
10
3.14
83%
-6
3.14
CO2
CO2
CO2
10 CO2
CO2
CO2
CDM
MW
h/a
GWh/a
GWhf/a
%
29.1
82.9
35.1
4.0
7680
29.1
/kW
/kWhf
0.228
15
-
45
11250
0.392
8
10
20
15
1180
%
a
a
a
/(kWe a)
g CO2/ kWhf
g CO2/ kWhf
kg CO2/kWhe
Mt CO 2
Mt CO 2/a
/kWhe
/t CO2
/t CO2
327
-
27.53
?
0.921
0.2676
0.02676
0.165
179.2
21.67
2000
59
1 CDM
CDM
CDM
3.3.6
(LFG)
(CH4 )
60
LFG
l
LFG
100%
GHG ;
LFG
CO2 CH4
CO2
LFG
LFG
LFG
10 2005 1
10
3.15
CDM
(a)
(b)
3 CDM
3.15
LFG
LFG
CDM
MW
1.74
1.74
h/a
5000
5000
GWh/a
8.7
8.7
GWhf/a
24.22
16.41
35
34.42
23.20
/kW
13333
/kWhf
10
10
10
10
10
/(kWe a)
920
g CO2/ kWhf
910
CO2
CO2
g CO2/ kWhf
4361.78
4042.87
CO2
kg CO2/kWhe
8.33
10 CO2
Mt CO 2
0.7247
CO2
Mt CO 2/a
0.07247
/kWhe
0.30
/t CO2
29.64
/t CO2
3.58
CO2
l
(
)
l
(
)
l
2000
CDM
l
61
1 CDM
3.4
3.4.1
l
3.4.1.1
CDM (EB)
l
CDM
CDM
CDM
GHG
3.4.1.2
3.16
2 600MW
133MW
300MW
20MW
4.1MW
1.94MW
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
48 b)
1. 48 b)
2. 48 a)
3. 48 b)
62
48 b)
48 b)
48 b)
1. 48 a)
2. 48 a)
3 CDM
()
1.
1.
600MW
300MW
LFG,
CO2
2.
2. LFG
3.
2
CDM
CDM
l
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
48 (a) (c)
CDM
l
CDM
48
CDM
(operating margin) (build
margin)
OECD IEA
2002 5
l
CDM
CDM
)
l
CDM GHG
63
1 CDM
CDM
? (
CDM
)
3.4.1.3
1) 48.a)
GDP
8% GDP
,
GHG
,
,48.a)
48.a)
48.a)
2)
48.b)
48.c)
48.b)
48.c)
CDM
64
CDM
,
3)
,
,
COD
()
4)
3.17
CO2
600MW 300MW
CO2 3.17
3 CDM
CO2
CO2
2010 2030
CO2
( 2000 )
48.a)
48.b)
(GWhel/a)
40
40
40
40
40
40
(gce/kWhel)
351
392
346.7
361.1
344
360
(GWhth /a)
114.3
127.6
105.9
109.4
112.0
117.2
(%)
94.4
94.4
94.4
94.4
94.4
94.4
0.938
1.048
0.927
0.965
0.919
0.962
37520
41902
37049
38287
36771
38482
(%)
102.0
114.0
100.8
104.1
100
104.7
CO2
(kg CO2 e/kWhel)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
CDM
(1)
(2)
CDM /
65
1 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
a)() b)
()
b)
CDM
(3) /LFG
(
) (
) ()
(4)
CDM
CDM
3.4.2 CDM
3.4.2.1
CDM
12 5(c)
43~ 44
CDM (EB) 9 10
CDM
66
( 3.18)
3.4.2.2
3 CDM
3.18
1.
-
GHG
(Mt CO 2/a)
0.876
0.536
5.
-
0.65
0.036
0.02676
6.
-
3.
4.
-
-
2.
0.072
>1MW
2010
l
20 50
l
()
l
(NDRC)
l
67
1 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
()
CDM
CDM
3
(
)
GSCC
(CERs)
2008
CO2
68
3 CDM
CDM
CDM
PDD
PDD CDM
(EB) PDD
CDM
3.19
PDD ()
3.4.3
3.4.3.1
3.19
(ICER)
CDM
2
GSCC
3
GSCC
CO2
(tCO2e)
12264000
5358000
9099650
508200
267760
724700
*
CO2 (tCO2/a)
876000
535850
649975
36260
26760
72470
1.08
4.03
2.17
1.8
459.3
CO2
()
85897
110540
112908
20924
4790
2363.2
CO2
6136
11054
12175
1493
479
236.3
8.47
24.94
15.00
49.79
21.67
3.94
kW
(tCO2/kW)
(/a)
(ICER) CO2
(/tCO2)
* 1 3 4 3 7 14 14 3 2 5 6
10 10
1
5571 /kW
15% kWh
69
1 CDM
2 3 -
CDM
1.4 /m3 0.29 /kgce 0.154
/kWh 0.034 /kWh
23% 4.3
CDM
52%
38% CDM kWh
72%
3 CDM 4106
/kW 4887 /kW
15% 3.19
3 ICER 15.0
/tCO2 2 ICER 24.94
/tCO2
4
20MW 3.19 ICER 50
/tCO2 ICER
9128 /kW
kW
7000 /kW
23%
2000
2300~2500
CO2
ICER
5
70
COD
CDM 4MW
4500
11250 /kW
450
0.392 /kWh
0.25 /kWh 56.8%
5 ICER 21.67 /tCO2
2
6
2320 kW
13300 ICER
CH4
CO 2 72470t
ICER 3.94 / tCO2
3.4.3.2 ICER
ICER
2 5 6 10
3 4
3 7
CDM
20 GDP
7%
3 CDM
CER
ICER
67%
80% CDM
ICER
1 2 4
24.9 / toe 53.4 /toe 65.3
/toe OECD
110.2 /toe 97.76
/toe 61 /toe ( IEA
Energy Prices and Taxes)
20% 2
OECD
34% ICER
24.9/tCO2 15.3 /tCO2
39%
2003
(NDRC)
10 kW
kW 30000
( PPA)
10
ICER
3.4.3.3
ICER
l
CDM
ICER ;
l
CDM
ICER
;
l
CDM
, ICER
;
l
CDM
ICER ;
l
(PPA)
,
ICER;
l
71
1 CDM
(ER)
(ICER)
CDM
PPA
RPS CDM
CDM
3.5 CDM
3.20
(
CDM
3.20
CDM CDM
(1) (2)
(3)
3.5.2 CDM
3.5.1 CDM
2003
3.21
CDM
CDM
17%
33%
CER
1MW ()
72
( 5%)
3 CDM
CDM
(1) SO2
NOx
(2)
2
3.21
( CDM
CDM
) CDM CDM
a) (
6% 17%);
b)
DNA CDM
DNA
CDM ( a) CDM
) b) CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
a) ()
b)
c)
73
1 CDM
3.5.3
CDM
CDM (EB)
2007 2008 CDM
8
CER
CDM ,
l
CDM
CER
EB
PDD EB
CDM
CER
CDM
3.6
74
BP-1 ( BP
) ADB-1 ADB-7
() 3E1 3E3
(
(NEDO)) 17
1 4
12
3.2
3.3 CO2
A B C D
ACO2
ICER A
CDM
BP-1
WB/GTZ1
3E3
() A
B CO2
ICER
3E2 (
)
3 CDM
3.2 CDM
75
1 CDM
3.22
WB/
WB/
WB/
WB/
GTZ1
GTZ2
GTZ3
GTZ4
CDM
WB/
WB/
GTZ5
GTZ6
CDM
BP-1
(IPCC)
[]
(48.a; 48.b;
48.c)
48 b)
1. 48 b)
2. 48 a)
48 b)
48 b)
48 b)
1. 48 a)
2. 48 a)
48 a)
3. 48 b)
37
10
37
37
10
10
10
M We
2600
133
400
20
4.1
1.74
3700
GWhe /a
6250
548
1413.6
40
29.1
8.7
84001)
MWhth/a
875
CO2
Mt CO 2/a
0.88
0.536
0.65
0.036
0.027
0.072
3.702)
765.54
88.84
193.56
22.08
5.44
2.81
914.873)
(ICER)
/t CO2
8.47
24.94
15.0
49.79
21.7
3.94
11.624)
= 8.27 /
, : 2010 4000
CO2 /, ,
, 4000
76
8%
3 CDM
ADB-1
ADB-2
ADB-3
ADB-4
ADB-5
ADB-6
ADB-7
3E1
3E2
3E3
TRT
TRT
48 c)
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
37
10
10
12
15
12.2
12.9
2300
64
41.65
49.55
49.79
3791
14.8
14.9
0.965
0.98
1.9
3.02
8.9
N/A
N/A
0.1316
0.0428
0.0155
0.018
0.0302
0.1337
0.1786
12.04
1.02
4.12
0.91
14.22
13.28
13.28
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
77
1 CDM
(WB/GTZ6)
ICER 3.3
C (3E1)
D ICER
(WB/GTZ2)
(WB/GTZ4) ICER
CO2
CO2
78
3.7.1 CDM
CDM
(
)
(WB/GTZ3)
3.7
3.7.1.1
CDM
( CDM EB CDM
)
3 CDM
3.7.1.2
CDM (EB)
CDM M&P 48
a) 48 c)
48a)
48a)
48 c)
CDM
CDM
/LFG
CDM
CDM ()
()
CDM
CDM
3.7.1.3
CDM
CDM
(
)
CDM
CDM
()
CDM
3.7.2 CDM
3.7.2.1 CDM
CDM
79
1 CDM
GHG
a)
b) CER
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
CDM
1) 2)
3)
3.7.2.2 CDM
CDM
a) CDM
CDM
b)
c)
CDM
DNA ( )
CDM
CDM
CDM
80
CER
CDM
CDM
3.7.3 CDM
(ICER)
3.94 /t CO2 (-)
8.47 () 15 (
-) 21.67 (
) 24.94 (
- GSCC) 49.79
()
ICER GWP (21)
ICER
ICER
CER
CER
ICER
2.2Mt CO2
ICER 15 /t CO2 eq
3.23
3 CDM
3.23
10 /t CO2
10 /t CO2
3.23
CDM
GTZ
3.7.4 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
( 5%)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM CER
81
II
CDM
CDM
CDM
4.1
CDM CERs ()
(MAC)
CDM
KP()
,
CDM
CERs
CDM
, CDM
CDM
CDM
4.2
CDM,
,
CDM
CDM CERs
CDM
,
,
, (IPAC- Emission
IPAC-AIM/ Technology )
(CERT)
(IPAC-SGM)
,
CDM ,
CDM
,
CDM CDM
85
2 CDM
CDM
,
CDM
, (COP7)
, CDM
1
, CDM
CDM
, -COP7
, ,
,
, ,
CDM
,
4.3
4.3.1 IPAC-Emission
IPAC-Emission ( IPAC
) ,
,
,
86
(US)
OECD (OECP-P) OECD
(OECP-W) (EFSU)
(ME) (CHN)
(SEA) (LA)
1990 2100 ,
IPAC-E
, ,
(AGLU )( 4.1)
ERB (Edmonse-RillyBarns )
(Edmonds 1983),
,
GDP
,
,
(AIM) AIM
,
(PNNL)
AGLU(Agriculture and Land Use)
, MiniCAM
CDM
4.1 IPAC-Emission
GDP ,
, /
2030
2030 ,
4.3.2
IPAC-AIM/Technology
IPAC-AIM/Technology (
IPAC-AIM/)
,
4.2
( 4.1)
87
2 CDM
4.1
()
(TRT)
400
,
( 4.2, 4.3) ,
()
,
,
88
4.3.3 CERT
CERT ()
Grtter
(ETH Zrich) 2001
(Kappel , 2002) CERT
,
CDM
4.2 IPAC-AIM/Technology
4.2
()( 4.1)
()
89
2 CDM
()
4.3
()( 4.1)
( )
PFBC IGCC
NGCC
(y
), CERT
(x )
,
, y
(Kappel, 2002)
(2008 2012 ),
2010
CERT
,
90
CDM 0% x%
100%
CDM (MACs)
100%
2008 2012 ,
(Kappel , 2002)
(Kappel
, 2002)
( B
) x%
B x%
,
,
JI CDM ET
,
CERT1.3
x% BAU-
(Kappel , 2002)
CERT1.3
,
,
, (EITs)
(
), ,
EIT
B
,
,
,
,
/,
, ,
(Kappel , 2002)
CDM
CERT , 12
, 6 ,
(US) (JPN) (EEC)
OECD (OOE) (FSU)
(EIT) 6
, (CHN)
(IND) (BRA) (EEX)
(DAE)
(ROW) IPAC-E
9 , CERT
IPAC-
9
4.3.4
IPAC 2010
9
MACs ,
CERT
( CDM ),
(CERs)
IPAC-AIM/
, CDM ,
CERT
CDM IPAC-SGM
( 6 ), CDM
CDM ,
CDM
,
91
2 CDM
,
,
CDM
CDM
, IPAC
IPAC-AIM/ IPAC-SGM
4.3
92
CDM
,
IPAC-AIM/
IPAC-AIM/
CDM
IPAC , 1990 , 2000
4.3
5 CDM
5
CDM
5.1
5.1.1
2010
IPAC
AIM
UNFCCC
IEA
EIA
5.1 5.2
,
, (IEA)
(IIASA)
()
, 2010
1990
36.5%, 5.5% 2010 ,
:
(tC)
(),
(tCO2 ), ,
tC ,
tCO2
tCO2 tC
CO2 C ,
CO2 12/44 (C CO2
) ( CH4 )
()(GWP)
,
, tCO2 e tCe (CO2 GWP 1, CH4
GWP 21)
93
2 CDM
5.1
0.86
0.92
0.94
0.25
0.28
0.30
OECD
0.46
0.48
0.49
OECD
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.41
0.42
0.42
2.70
3.15
3.48
1.14
1.29
1.35
1.56
1.86
2.13
1.19
1.51
1.89
0.13
0.17
0.22
0.63
0.83
1.09
0.43
0.51
0.58
5.16
6.00
6.73
OECD
5.2
GDP
OECD
16.36
21.07
24.47
5.50
7.52
8.95
OECD
7.58
9.50
11.03
OECD
3.28
4.05
4.49
1.08
0.96
1.36
1.50
3.29
6.11
0.47
1.23
2.47
1.03
2.06
3.64
1.92
2.67
4.06
0.45
0.62
0.92
0.39
0.53
0.86
1.08
1.52
2.28
20.86
27.99
36.00
94
5 CDM
5.3
EJ
69.5
82.7
89.5
OECD
OECD
66.1
22.1
70.1
24.5
73.4
25.5
69.3
53.9
60.6
28.2
17.1
38.4
25.7
54.4
45.5
10.6
15.4
21.0
7.9
14.1
10.4
18.1
14.9
22.5
304.9
337.5
408.6
5.4
10 tC
(IPAC , )
1.33
1.50
1.62
OECD
OECD
0.47
1.11
0.46
1.20
0.47
1.24
1.25
0.95
1.06
0.66
0.33
0.84
0.49
1.09
0.86
0.18
0.26
0.36
0.15
0.22
0.20
0.29
0.28
0.37
6.02
6.68
8.22
5.1.2
IPAC ,
,,
(MACs) IPAC
MC = aQ 2 + bQ
MC 2010 ,
1990 /tC; Q , MtC;
a, b R 2 5.5
1 2010 2020
,
95
2 CDM
5.5
IPAC CO2
0.0008
0.0075
0.0017
0.0012
0.0079
0.2223
0.9913
0.9963
0.9892
0.9959
0.0008
0.0014
0.0265
0.0018
0.0003
0.1596
0.2358
1.4692
1.9744
R2
0.9972
0.9988
0.999
0.9975
5.1
0.0841
0.0773
1.7344
0.9
MACs , 2010
5.1 2010 9
/
,
,
96
5.1.3
MIT
EPPA(
5 CDM
)
GTEM ()
,
(Ellerman 1998; Tulpule
1998)
5.2 5.3 5.4
EPPA
GTEM
5.2
CD-ROM
, 550MtC
(2017MtCO2 ), IPAC
MAC EPPA,
550MtC , IPAC
MAC EPPA GTEM
,
MACs , 2010
USA
EET
BRA
JPN
FSU
EEX
EEC
CHN
DAE
OOE
OECD
IND
ROW
97
2 CDM
5.3
MACs , 2010
GTEM
5.4
MACs , 2010
(GTEM , )
98
5 CDM
5.5
MAC
5.6
OECD MAC
5.7
MAC
MAC
EPPA IPAC
OECD, IPAC
,
350MtC(1283MtCO2 ),
IPAC EPPA GTEM
MAC 350MtC
, IPAC EPPA
, GTEM MAC
,
5.8
IPAC
GTEM EPPA
99
2 CDM
5.8
MAC
IPAC ,
,
, 2010
BAU , 1094MtC (4011Mt
CO2 ) EPPA 2010 BAU
1792MtC(6571MtCO2 )
,
BAU
, MAC
MAC
EPPA
GTEM
CGE , IPAC
CGE ,
,
100
, GDP
GDP
MAC
,
,
,
, IPAC
, 2010
10GW
110GW,
,
,
20
IPAC
MAC
20 90
2000
,
5 CDM
5.2
5.2.1
IPAC 2010
GHG EPPA
GTEM
()
2008 2012
(CO2 , CH4 , N2 O, SF 6, PFCs
HFCs)
,
1990 8% 10%
,
1990 5.2%
5.6
1990
, 5.7 1990
1 ,
,
ET
101
2 CDM
5.6
1990
USA
JPN
EEC
OOE
FSU
1534
311
1056
330
1112
MtC
All with
All without
USA
USA
4691
3157
EET
348
: 1990 ,
5.7
USA
1246
JPN
288
EEC
230
1990
OOE
OECD-P
OECD-W
834
377
975
FSU
865
EET
M tC
All with
All without
USA
USA
3742
2496
279
: 1990 ,
5.8
2010 BAU
USA
1795
1835
JPN
312
OOE
EEC
M tC
2060
1946
369
385
389
309
286
428
383
951
889
1161
1065
1887
1864
1870
1669
343
359
373
341
311
331
347
305
964
1013
1066
1142
1624
OECD-P
477
OECD-W
1246
FSU
540
587
641
735
631
810
810
1029
EET
207
226
243
274
240
292
296
321
EFSU
926
()
4129
4335
4543
4693
4341
4315
4272
5140
5133
()
2334
2500
2656
2829
2472
2646
2648
3080
3187
: GTEM (NC),
102
5 CDM
5.9
, 2010
MtC
USA
549
589
641
618
624
423
378
526
412
JPN
24
55
71
85
53
74
78
OOE
81
101
117
75
79
56
98
53
EEC
130
179
232
308
117
55
105
OECD-P
100
OECD-W
271
FSU
325
278
224
130
234
EET
72
53
36
39
55
13
EFSU
302
83
52
27
218
387
162
593
801
951
599
573
530
449
442
160
333
24
150
152
77
30
(UNFCCC 2001)
3.3 3.4
: (1),
; (2), ,
COP-6 COP-7(
Z)
JI
,
, 5.10 ;
97.87MtC, 69.87MtC
CERT
, /
5.9 2010
,
,
84~239MtC(308~876MtCO2 ),
Grubb
106~
196 MtC (389~719 MtCO2 ) 67~
87MtC (246~319 MtCO2 ) 10
45~75 MtC (165~275MtCO2 )
EIT 24~36MtC (88~132 MtCO2 )
Grubb , EIT
242~394MtC (887~
1455MtCO2 ), EIA
260~397MtC (953~1456MtCO2 ),
IPAC 218MtC
(799MtCO2 ) Grubb
30MtC (110MtCO2 ),
40MtC (147MtCO2 ),
5.10
103
2 CDM
5.9
5.10
JI
28
13
13.11
5.17
13.2
18.08
34.83
3.76
39
MtC
97.87
69.87
: UNFCCC, 2001
IPAC
5.2.2
CERT
CERT
, 2010
(
/)
,
,
IPAC
104
,
2% CERs
PCF CDM
, CDM
,
JI CDM
2 /tC (0.54
/tCO2 ), JI 1 /tC
(0.27 /tCO2) ( 2000
)
CDM
5 CDM
, CDM 2008
,
CDM 30%
,
, CDM JI ET
,
10%
,
,
50%,
0
0
CERT ,
, CDM ,
,
(
CDM ); CDM
;
CDM
, CDM
,
,
CDM
5.11 CDM JI ET
, IPAC
/
5.11
CDM, JI ET
USA (10%)
35
119
1369
OECD-P
86
93
3015
OECD-W
252
108
7998
374
12382
: 2000
:
OECD-P, 86MtC (315MtCO2 ); OECD-W,
252MtC (924MtCO2 ); (10%
), 35MtC (128MtCO2 ) ( 100%
350MtC (1283Mt
CO2 )) 5.10
5.9
MC=aQ2 +bQ ,
a b 5.5,
Q
1
1
TC = (aQ 2 + bQ)dQ = aQ 3 + bQ 2
0
3
2
, a b
( 1.495/1.196
1990 2000 )
a = a 1.495/1.196(1/)2
b = b 1.495/1.196 (1/)
(10% ) OECD-P
OECD-W ,
93~119 /tC (23~32 /tCO2 ),
124
5.12 5.10-1 5.10-2
,
,
105
2 CDM
, (10%) OECD-P
OECD-W 374MtC
(1371MtCO2 ) 177MtC (649Mt
CO2 ), 22 /tC(6
/tCO2 ),
55 , 69
ET
61.6MtC (226MtCO2 ),
24% JI
90.5MtC (332MtCO2 )
5.12
25 CDM
44.7MtC, 48%
CDM JI
CDM
30%, JI 100%
CDM 5
, 5%
21.6MtC (79.2MtCO2 )
CDM 2.6
177.1
649.4
USA
15.0
55.0
845
OECD-P
34.8
127.6
1670
OECD-W
127.3
466.8
4801
61.6
225.9
2495b
61.6
225.9
90.5
331.8
90.5
331.8
44.7
163.9
514
15.3
56.1
178
21.6
79.2
257
2.7
9.9
30
2.4
8.8
23
2.7
9.9
27
374.0
1371.3
EFSU
JI
EFSU
CDM
(/tC, 2000 )
22.0
(/tCO2, 2000 )
6.0
: a) ,
b) JI
106
5 CDM
5.10-1
5.10-2
/ (MtC)
(10 , 2000 )
, , 5.13
5.11 BAU
2.5 /tC(0.68 /tCO2 )
22 /tC (6 /tCO2 ),
10.6 /tC(2.9 /tCO2)
, IPAC
a) IPAC
; b)
CDM 7~95MtC
(26~348MtCO2 ) , 49MtC
(180MtCO2 ) CDM
150 7.9
, 2.99
CDM 4~57.5MtC (15~211MtCO2 )
, 30.5MtC (112MtCO2 ),
90 5.66 ,
1.87
107
2 CDM
5.13
BAU
IPAC
IPAC
22.0
44.7
21.6
256.8
EPPA
EPPA
13.0
95.3
57.5
397.7
GTEM
GTEM
9.2
35.7
25.4
96.2
EIA
EPPA
6.2
45.3
27.1
63.9
EIA
EPPA
10.2
76.5
46.1
229.1
EIA
EPPA
2.5
6.9
4.0
EIA
GTEM
11.8
47.0
33.3
175.6
EIA
GTEM
19.8
79.2
55.2
565.6
0.9
EIA
GTEM
4.0
10.6
7.6
GTEM,
GTEM,
7.4
48.9
27.1
76.8
GHGs
GHGs
10.61
49
30.5
187.0
6.36
28
18.1
181.6
7.4
: 2000
5.11
CDM
(: EIA L (M, H) EIA (, ) )
10% CDM
30% CDM 2 /tC
(0.55 /tCO2 ),
50% , ,
,
108
, ,
,
,
CDM 0
257MtC(942MtCO2 )
5 CDM
CDM
,
, CDM ,
CDM CDM
2008 ,
CDM
,
, 5.14
, CDM
CDM
10%, 24.3 /tC
(6.6 /tCO2 ), CDM
5.14
16.3MtC (60MtCO2 )
7.8MtC (28.6 MtCO2 )
50%,
18.2 /tC,
CDM 62.3MtC
(228.4 MtCO2 ) 30.3MtC(111.1 MtCO2 )
, CDM
50%
, CDM
,
10% 50%
,
1.085 2.776
10
24.3
16.3
7.8
108.5
20
22.7
30.6
14.8
185.0
30
22.0
44.7
21.6
256.8
40
20.6
56.1
27.2
294.1
50
18.2
62.3
30.3
277.6
: 2000
,
,
CDM 5.15
( CDM )
0 30%, 20~22
/tC (5.5~6 /tCO2 ),
CDM 19.8~21.6MtC (72.6~79.2Mt
CO2 ) , ,
,
030%,
0 4.4 /tC (1.2 /tCO2 )
,
5.16
109
2 CDM
CDM
,
,
1
/tC(0.27 /tCO2 ) 5 /tC
(1.36 /tCO2 ), ,
CDM 46.2MtC (169.4Mt
CO2 ) 37.7MtC (138.2MtCO2 ),
CDM 22.3MtC (81.8MtCO2 )
18.4MtC (67.5MtCO2 )
5.15
, ,
,
, CDM
5.17
21.7
44.0
21.3
247.6
21.3
43.3
20.9
238.8
10
22.0
44.7
21.6
256.8
20
19.9
40.8
19.8
208.1
30
21.2
43.1
20.9
236.6
: 2000
5.16
CDM
21.9
46.2
22.3
277.9
22.0
44.7
21.6
256.8
21.3
37.7
18.4
173.3
: 2000
5.17
EU 50%
22.0
44.7
21.6
256.8
50%
20.9
42.5
20.6
229.1
18.1
37.1
18.1
168.4
0%
: 2000
110
5 CDM
5.12
5.13
CDM
( 0 30%)
CDM
111
2 CDM
5.14
CDM
CDM 0~
24.3/tC (0~6.6/tCO2 ) 0~95.3MtC
(0~349MtCO2 ) 0~57.5MtC (0~211MtCO2)
, CDM
0 EPPA
EPPA
CDM
EPPA ,
135MtC (495MtCO2 ) CDM
, 10%, ,
24.3 /tC(6.6 /tCO2 ) CDM
,
CDM
5.18
CDM CDM
30
10
CDM
50
30
CDM
10
112
,
CERT
,
, CERT
,
CDM CDM ,
CDM IPAC
,
5.18
5 CDM
5.19 CDM
CDM
CDM ,
19.2 /tC (5.2 /tCO2 ),
CDM 31.8MtC (116.6MtCO2 ),
10MtC (37MtCO2 ) CDM
5.19
, 23.7 /tC
(6.5 /tCO2 ), CDM
6.8MtC (24.9MtCO2 ),
0.766 ~3.108 , CDM
14.1~65.5MtC (51.7~240MtCO2 )
22.0
44.7
21.6
256.8
CDM
19.2
65.5
31.8
310.8
CDM
23.7
14.1
6.8
76.6
5.2.3
CERT
IPAC , (
) 371MtC
(1360MtCO2 ), EIA
335MtC (1228MtCO2 ) IPAC
257MtC (942MtCO2 )
,
IPAC EPPA
GTEM
,
, IPAC
EPPA GTEM
IPAC
IPAC
,
10%
30% CDM
50% 2 /tC CDM
, CERT
22 /tC 6 /tCO2 ,
CDM 50%,
21.6MtC (79MtCO2 ), CERs
113
2 CDM
2.6 IPAC
,
CDM 6.8~21.6MtC
(25~79MtCO2 )
5.3 CDM
5.3.1
IPAC-AIM/
,
IPAC-AIM/
(NIES) ,
2030
,
CDM
ERI IPAC
CDM
5.20 5.21
GDP
5.20
IPAC-AIM/
CDM ,
1141
1284
1393
302
413
531
840
872
862
1 50 /tC
2 IPAC-AIM/ IPAC-
, 2000
,
IPAC-AIM/ IPAC
,
GDP
GDP
5.3.2
5.21
114
106
5.15 IPAC-AIM/
2000 (
)
,
12.10 /tC (3.30 /tCO2)
1
IPAC-AIM/
2 2010 CDM
CDM
5.16
IPAC-AIM/
5.17 ,
, Y
CO2
X 2010 CO2
(: 2000 2010
)
7.9
5 CDM
5.15
5.16
IPAC-AIM/
CO2 ,
5.17
115
2 CDM
5.18
5.22
10.7
0.3
4.4
0.4
1.2
4.4
7.7
1.0
0.0
3.3
10.4
8.1
6.8
37.3
0.4
0.6
,
,
CDM (
, )
CDM
CDM
,
GHG
116
2.9
,
CDM
,
CDM CDM
1
,
, CER ,
CERT
1 CDM
5 CDM
,
, 50/tC (13.60
/tCO2 ) 5.185.22
50/tC
IPAC-AIM /
2010 (
)()
138 MtC/a(506 MtCO2/a)
5.3.3
CDM
5.23
> 200000
0.1
20000~200000
0.4~1.3
2000~20000
13
200~2000
130
< 200
1300
,
CER
CDM
10000tCO2 /a
,
,
CDM
, ,
( 5.23 )
Michaelowa/Jotzo, 2003
5 /tCO2 CER
, 10000tCO2 /a
CDM
, ,
CER 2
( 5.19 ) 5.19
CDM
(tCO2 /a)()
()
CDM
CER ( 2 )
, CDM
( 10000tCO2 )
(
)
CDM
, 2~20
/tCO2
,
CER
6 /tCO2 (22 /tC) 5.19
, CER
117
2 CDM
5.19
CER CDM
(1
5.3.4
3-6-2 , 7~10 )
CDM
50 /tC (13.60
/tCO2 )
, 2010 170MtC
(624MtCO2 ) CER
,
: (a) 50%, 85MtC/a (312Mt
CO2 ) CO2 22
/tC(6 /tCO2 ) CER (b)
( 10000tCO2 )
CER
, (c)
+ CDM
(d)
CDM
2010
CERs, ( CDM
,
CDM ,
, )
5.20 IPAC
CERT IPACAIM/ IPAC-AIM/
, IPAC
, IPAC-AIM/
(MAC)
22 /tC (6 /tCO2 )
, IPAC-AIM/ MAC
85MtC (312MtCO2 )
118
5 CDM
, IPAC MAC
72MtC (264MtCO2 )
, IPAC-AIM/
CDM
50 /tC(13.60 /tCO2 )
170MtC (624MtCO2 )
IPAC MAC , 30% CDM
, CERT 22 /tC
, 21.6MtC
5.20 B 30%
CDM 5.20
, IPAC-AIM/
, 50 /tC(13.60
/tCO2 ) 170MtC/a (624Mt
CO2 ) CERT
, 22 /tC(6 /tCO2 )
21.6MtC/a (79.2MtCO2 )
CERT ( IPAC
) 30% ,
CDM
B CDM
(
5.20
5.24 22 /tC (6
/tCO2 ), CDM
CDM (
5.24)
,
MAC CER
CDM
( 6 ) IPAC-SGM
CDM ,
,
:
CERT CER
MAC ( 5.17);
119
2 CDM
CDM
, CDM
(
CDM );
(
)
;
CDM /
(, )
5.24
10
2.16
10
2.16
1.08
50
10.80
15
3.24
CO2
10
2.16
100
21.60
5.3.5
5.25
CDM ,
IPAC/AIM
85MtC(312MtCO2)(
CER 22 /tC 6 /tCO2 ),
CDM , :
(a)CDM ; (b)
, 2010 CDM
21.6MtC/a(79.2MtCO2) ( 5.25)
CDM
,
,
CDM
50%,
10%, 5%,
5.25
GHG
(TRT)
120
CDM
5 CDM
QSL
Hoffman
Colburn
LPG
(hybrid)
(IGCC)
5.4
2010
;
MACs; ;
(
)
CDM ; ,
,
()
IPAC
374MtC (1371MtCO2 )(
, CDM
30% 10%) , 2010
CDM 44.7MtC
(164MtCO2 ), CDM
50% (21.6 MtC, 79.2 MtCO2 )
CERT CDM
0~57.5MtC(211MtCO2 )
CER 0~24.3 /tC
6.6 /tCO2
CER
IPAC
CERT
Grubb (2003)
,
55~190 /tC(15~52
/tCO2 ),
0~50 /tC(0~13.6
/tCO2 )
, 55 /tC(15 /tCO2 )
18 /tC (5
/tCO2 ) , CER
, CDM
15~50MtC(54~180MtCO2 )
, Haites (1998) (1998)
Austin (1998) Ellermann (1998)
121
2 CDM
CDM ,
27~572MtC(99~2108MtCO2 ), 273~723MtC
(1001~2651MtCO2 ), 397~503MtC (1456 ~
1844MtCO2 ) 100~188MtC (367~689Mt
CO2 )
( Grubb, 2003)
Grubb (2003) , CDM
,
CDM
CDM ,
GHG()
,
CERUPT
PCF ,
,
CERs 10~20 /tC(2.5~
5 /tCO2 ), IPAC
CERT
CERUPT
, 20 CDM
2004
(EU ETS)
2005 JI
CDM
JI CDM
EU ETS
, JI CDM
2010 1 tC
(3.60 tCO2 ), CER 43
122
, ,
, JI
CDM ET (AAU)
,
CDM JI
(WWF)
, Grubb (2003)
, (AAUs)
CDM
,
CDM
,
CERS 2006
, IPAC 2010
CDM 44.7MtC( 164MtCO2 /a)
CDM 21.6 MtC( 79.2
MtCO2 ), ,
1 20031030
(IETA), 2010
14.3/tCO2 ( www.carbonpoint.com)
5 CDM
, ,
CDM
44.7MtC/a(164MtCO2 /a) , CER
CERT ,
20~40 /tC ( 5~10 /tCO2 )
CER
:
CDM
, 2006
CDM
2012 7
CDM
(),
,
JI CDM
(AAU) ,
CDM
2008 CDM
44.7MtC/a(164MtCO2 /a)
,
, Lecoq
and Capoor (2003),
,
,
EU-ETS
,
CER ERU
,
,
CDM
CER
,
, ,
CERs
123
2 CDM
()
, CDM
,
,
,
,
, ,
5~50MW
,
()
CDM
:
a) OECD b)
c) d)
(NGO) :
OECD
/ JI /CDM
ERU CER ,
CERUPT CDM
CDM JI
JI CDM (
KfW),
124
CDM
,
CDM
,
, -
,
CDM
,
PCF IFC
EBRD OECD
CDM JI ,
5 CDM
5.5
CDM
, ,
,
,
,
2010, ,
5.26
,
IPAC ,
(10% ),
3.74 tC(13.71
tCO2 ) IPAC
MACs CERT
,
EFSU
10%
30% 50%
2 /tC CDM ,
2010 , CDM 4470
tC(1.64 tCO2 )
5.26 ,
2001 WB-NSS
2003
CDM CER
Michaelowa/Jotzo, 2003
1243
0~161
0~6
1371
0~164
0~7
1300~ (3000)
300 ~ (2000)
1.7 ~ (10)
860~1540
80 ~ 465
415 ~1250**
50 ~ 180
0 ~ 13.8
11401
330 ~ 360
6 ~ 12
1105
363
<4
* , ,
** 50% 15
1 : 128MtCO2 e; B: 242MtCO2 e; , 10
: 36MtCO2 e; B734MtCO2 e
125
2 CDM
5.27
GHG
()
1371.3
374
649.4
177.1
721.6
196.8
100.0
225.9
61.6
31.3
JI
331.8
90.5
46.0
CDM
163.9
44.7
22.7
CDM,
79.2
21.6
11
CDM,
56.1
15.3
7.8
CDM,
28.6
7.8
4.0
5.27 ,
11%, CDM
50% 2010 CDM
2160 tC 7920 tCO2,
CERs
(300~600MW)
CDM ,
2006/2007
CO2 ,
CDM ,
3~5 /tCO2
IPAC CERT
(0~7 /tCO2 )
,
,
(RMUs CERs ERUs
AAUs), ,
126
CER ,
2000
36%
2010 38%
(IPAC-AIM/ )
, ( )
, ,
CDM
2010 7920 tCO2 CDM 50%
5 CDM
, CERs
( CDM ,
300~600MW )
2006/2007
: ;
CO2 ( HFCs)
,
,
()
CFBC
()
CO2
CO2 CO2 ,
HFCs,
127
2 CDM
6
CDM
6.1
IPAC-SGM
6.1.1
IPAC-SGM
CDM
, IPAC
(CGE),
IPAC-SGM CGE
CGE,
CGE
,
IPAC-SGM
(PNNL) SGM( )
, 12
IPAC-SGM
SGM,
,
,
SGM
,
128
SGM,
,
CO2 CH4 CO N2 O
NOx SO2 VOCs CFCs CFC
()
3 4 5
6 CDM -
(15 )
(100 )
9 11
(6.1)
,
,
IPAC-SGM
, ,
6.1 IPAC-SGM
6.1.2
[]
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
IPAC-SGM CDM
CDM
, IPAC-
SGM, , :
CERs
, CERs
IPAC-SGM
129
2 CDM
CDM
CDM
2005 2010
CDM
, 2012
7
CDM
CDM
,
2010 ,
,
CDM
6.2
6.2
IPAC-SGM
: 2030
()
IPAC
6.2 IPAC-SGM
IPAC-SGM
1990
1067931
358554
343661
702215
476928
1995
1165023
397988
380687
778675
528857
2000
1244045
426376
407488
833863
566340
2005
1309099
453367
431687
885055
601108
2010
1357580
489652
466795
956446
649596
2015
1399020
514309
489518
1003828
681776
2020
1440727
526122
499638
1025760
696671
2025
1475316
524281
496482
1020763
693278
2030
1495370
529332
500471
1029804
699418
130
2030
CDM
,
,
CO2 SO2
1990
20002002
6 CDM -
GDP :
, 2050 GDP
1990
IPAC
IPAC-SGM
( 6.3)
1990
1000291
473131
61373
218566
1753362
1995
1351561
804618
214707
218569
2589454
0.081
2000
2256274
1351287
472525
218560
4298645
0.107
7.59
2005
3624311
1945574
696229
218566
6484680
0.086
10.79
2010
5519115
2621077
1055124
284134
9479450
0.079
14.593
2015
7759009
3245157
1393635
369374
12767175
0.061
18.727
2020
10315084
3958638
1731273
369401
16374397
0.051
23.505
2025
12954654
4710539
2057167
369375
20091735
0.042
28.981
2030
15979505
5773584
2493823
369376
24616288
0.041
35.196
3.218
4.9
2002(19902000)
: 20
6.4
: ,
IPAC-SGM
( 6.4)
Mtce
1990
164.00
20.64
753.73
0.00
0.03
15.96
0.00
954.36
1995
229.50
27.32
983.40
0.00
0.10
20.15
0.00
1260.47
2000
320.50
32.57
889.55
0.00
0.44
27.32
0.27
1270.65
2005
392.42
40.71
1166.06
0.00
1.13
36.78
0.64
1637.73
2010
484.74
48.52
1301.00
0.00
1.91
46.12
1.25
1883.54
2015
590.33
57.59
1474.87
0.03
2.73
56.09
1.86
2183.49
2020
701.46
65.77
1637.01
0.27
3.31
63.58
3.00
2474.40
2025
814.98
73.70
1781.94
0.58
3.34
62.94
4.12
2741.61
2030
948.70
84.10
1972.43
1.23
3.65
68.07
5.64
3083.82
: ,
131
2 CDM
IPAC-SGM CDM
:
CDM
:
CDM/CERs
, CDM
1 (
6.5) 2010 CERT
CDM
2005 ,
2010 CER
, CDM 2005
, 2010
2010 , CDM
()
CDM
2030
, CDM 2010
6.5 CDM
2005
237.6
2010
475.2
2015
356.4
2020
237.6
CDM : CDM
1 CDM CDM
, CERs
132
CDM
,
CDM
IPAC-SGM
6.6
:
, CDM
,
IPAC
CDM
, 2010 2030
2030 ,
2010
( ,
CD-ROM
3)
6.7
,
(
)
6.8
(10%)
2010 ,
2010
20300.1%
6 CDM -
4.0
0.2
5.0
6.0
0.3
5.0
4.4
0.1
2.3
0.07
0.8
0.1
12.5
0.2
0.06
25.0
5.0
0.2
2005CDM
4.0
CD-ROM
6.7
10
12.6
15.4
22.2
25.7
0.9
1.4
2.7
2.5
: , 2002
6.8
(1)
(1)
10
240.1
261.1
343.0
26.1
27.4
36.2
CDM
(
), 2010
CDMGDP0.03%, 2020
0.34%, 20300.52% (6.9)
, CDM
(CDM
),
GDP
2030 , 0.52%
(6.1) 2005203025,
CDM, CDM
0.68%GDP ,
CDMGDP0.022%
,
CDMGDP
133
2 CDM
6.9
CDM GDP
2005
750.6
750.6
2010
1109.2
2020
2030
2005
2030 GDP
2005
2030 GDP %
6.1
6.4
1109.6
0.4
0.033
1965.5
1972.2
6.7
0.34
3025.2
3040.8
15.6
0.52
2274.6
2290.2
15.6
0.68
0.022
CDM GDP
CDM
,
,
CERT IPAC-AIM/
IPAC-SGM
CDM
CDM
, CDM
, CDM
134
10
(FDI)
, CDM
FDI
CDM
CDM
, CDM
CDM CER
,
(),
CDM
,
IPAC-SGM
CGE , IPAC- SGM
6 CDM -
IPAC-AIM/
,
:
CDM
CDM
2010 GDP
0.03% 2020 0.34% 2030
0.52%
CDM
CDM ,
CDM
(Jiang
1998; Guo 2003)
,
CDM
IPAC-SGM
135
2 CDM
7.1
7.1.1
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
7.1.1.1
CDM :
CDM
136
( 2010 ) CDM
, , CDM
( CDM
) 2010
4.75 (
)
2005 2010 17.8
CDM ()
GDP 21.3
CDM
1 ,
2010 , GDP 0.20
, CDM
1
:
(
),
:
2
;
CDM
,
,
7.1.1.2
10
/tCO2 ,
1 GDP ,
, SO2 NOx
CERs
2
CDM
,
,
5.2~6.5 /tCO2
CDM
,
,
CDM ,
5.2~6.5/tCO2 , 2010
25~117 MtCO2 3
, CDM
50% ( 52~240 MtCO2 )
2010 , CER
0.77 ~3.11 4
CER
CDM
CO2
( CO2 80%)
CDM
CDM (
HFC23 )
3 , 117 Mt CO2 CDM
2010
()CDM
4 , CDMCER
(
) ,
137
2 CDM
() (a) EIT
; (b)
()
; (c)
() ; (d)2010
CDM ; (e)
JI
; (f); (g)
; (h)
CDM ,
,
(
) CDM
( CDM
CERs CERs
)
7.1.1.3
CDM
2012
2012 CERs
2005
,
, CDM
2012 CERs
138
,
CDM 2012 CERs
CDM 7
2005
CER
CDM
/ 2012
CDM (
CERs , )
(
)
CDM
CER ,
CDM ,
CDM
CDM
CDM 2005 2006
( 300~600MW)
CDM
CDM
/ ,
,
CDM ,
7.1.2
CDM
7.1.2.1 CDM
( CD-ROM )
CDM
,
:
CDM
CER ,
,
CDM
CDM
(
)
PDDs,
, :
CDM
( DNA CDM
CDM
CER
(
CDM )
CDM
(
CDM )
CDM
CDM ,
(
) ,
CDM
, ,
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
139
2 CDM
7.1.2.2
CDM
CDM
CDM CER
;
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
DNA1
CDM
DNA
DNA
CDM
2004
1 : ,
DNA CDM
140
CDM
CDM
CDM
, 2004 2006
CDM
CDM
CDM
7.1.3
,
CDM CDM
CDM
(
)
CDM
( ) IPAC-AIM
CDM
2010 25~117Mt CO2 ,
CDM 50%
CER
6
4
(3.9 /tCO2 )
(8.5 /tCO2 )
CDM 1
6
85%~100%
, CER
(
)
CDM
/
(
CD-ROM )
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
( CDM
10%) (5%)
( 15%) CO2
( 10%)
,
(
)
7.2
7.2.1
CDM
141
2 CDM
CDM
(
, )
,
CDM
CDM
,
CDM, :
; SD
/ CDM
MVP ;
(,
Golden Standard)
, :
/
/
142
(
)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CER
CDM
CDM
1 CDM
(), CDM
,
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
/
CDM
CDM
CDM
,
CDM
7.2.2
CDM
:
7.2.2.1
1
1 200312COP9
143
2 CDM
CDM
CDM
,
1
2 CDM
/
CDM
/
CDM
CDM
,
CDM
CDM
7.2.2.2
(
2003) CDM
1 : (1)
; (2) CDM; (3)
(DNA) , CDM
2 , ,
,
, ,
144
, ,
,
CDM
, ,
CDM , /
CDM
CDM /
,
CDM PDD
,
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
,
PDD, CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
CDM
/
CDM
CDM
B
CDM
7.2.2.3
CDM
(1)
(2)
CDM
(
)/
CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
(1)
JI/CDM
(2)
/ CDM
CDM
CDM
2005 2007
CDM
CDM CDM
145
2 CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
/CER
CDM
7.2.3
7.2.3.1 CDM/
CDM
CDM
,
(The CDM
Guidebook A Resource for Clean Development Mechanism
Project Developers in Southern Africa) :
146
CDM CDM
know-how
CDM
(
) CDM
7.2.3.2
CDM
(
)
CDM
CDM CDM
CDM
CER
CDM
CDM
HFC-23
N2 O ,
()
(MAC)
CDM
(1) CER
, GHG
PPA
(2) CDM CERs PPA
()
CDM
CER
147
CDM
CDM
GTZ 2004
7 1 2
( CD-ROM
)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
7 1 CDM
250
148
CDM ,
(NCCCC),
CDM
( 4)
(NDRC)
CDM (DNA)
CDM
DNA (NCCCC
, NDRC) NCCCC
CDM
,
CDM :
CDM
( 2012
),
2012
CDM 2012
NCCCC
CDM
,
CDM
,
CDM
CDM
CDM
(CERs)
(EU-ETS)
CDM
2005 1 1
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
,
2020
CDM
CDM
CDM CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
149
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
(
4) CDM
()
()
()
CDM
:
CDM
CDM
100% CDM
,
,
, ,
150
(
HFC-23 CO2
1 )
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
, CDM
CDM
/,
(),
UNFCCC
(), CDM/CER
,
( CDM
) (<5 /tCO2 )
, CDM
CDM
CDM
,
CO2
78
,
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
(cdm.ccchina.gov.cn) CDM
( CDM )
CDM
( CER
CDM
IRR
);
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
/
CDM
()
CDM
( )
CDM
( 40%)
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
IRR
CDM
)
GTE
CDM
CDM
,
CDM
CDM
151
CDM
CDM
(
UNDP CDM ADB
CDM METI
152
GTZ ) (
KfW
)
CERs
CDM
CDM
CDM
CDM
1
(COP) CDM
(EB) COP7 12 CDM EB
EB
CDM
( 2)
1. (15MW): /
/; M W MW(e) (
MW(p) MW(th))*;
2. : /;
3. 15GWh=54TJ;
4. : 1.5 tCO2
5.
(SMP)
;
*: (p) peak()
(e) electric()
(th)
thermal()
:
(i) 1.5 kW
(
3)
153
43. CDM ,
CDM
44. CDM , CDM
A
CDM
, CDM M&P 37 38
EB
EB CDM M&P 48
(
) , ,
. ,
48 ,:
(a) : ,
,
(b) :
,
EB , 48(a)(c)
CDM
,
EB
COP8
CDM
CERs
COP , CDM :
(a) :
,
17/CP.7 6(c)
(b) PDD
(c)
(d) , ,
(e)
154
COP8 ()
()
. A.
. B.
. C.
. D.
2
. A. :
. B. :
. C. :
. D. :
. E. :
3 :
. A.
. B.
. C.
. D.
EB
PDD
(a) :
45(e),
/(
, )
, , ,
(CDM-PDD B4 )
155
(b) /:
(:,,)
(, , ,)
(, )
( CER )
(c) :
(, , , IPCC,
, )
1.
, :
(a) ;
(b) 20% ,
GHG ( CO2
)
5.
, :
(a) 5 ,
20%;
(b) 5 ,
20%
(
)
CDM
, CDM-PDD ,
(CDM -PDD A.4.2,
A.4.3, A.4.4. B E )
CDM
47
7. 47
CERs
8. /-
( CO2 ),
CDM
, () ,
156
EB
1. : :
(a) CDM M&P 48 ,
(b) ,
,
EB
2. EB 8 , ,
CDM ,
3. :
CDM -PDD
Annex 3-4
/ ,
COP CDM (Glossary)
(/), CDM -PDD
4. Annex 3 4:
Annex
,
, ,
(, )
5. : CDM-PDD A-E
, , Annex
CDM -PDD
A-E
157
EB
()
()
6. : ,
, ,
(, 5 ),
(,
)/ (,
, , )
(SI -
http://www.bipm.fr/enus/3_SI/si.html)
7. : ,
, ,
CDM
9. : , /
: CDM
, /,
/
EB
1. ,
CDM ,
2. CDM
, :
(a) ,
;
(b) CDM
;
(c)
( CDM
) ;
(d)
(
[<x%]), /
158
3. : CDM 48
4. CDM 48
(a), (b) (c)
48 ,
(
2 ) CDM 48
6. (ex post)
, (ex ante)
CDM -PDD , EB
,
7.
M P
EB
:
1. Salvador da Bahia LFG ;
2. Ulsan HFC
EB
CDM
EB
( CDM 40(f))
UNFCCC CDM 8
UNFCCC CDM CDM
CDM
, CDM 8
DOE
159
EB
()
CDM
CDM 40
(b)(c)
COP9
EB
CDM
Appendix B
160
,
(DOE)
1. NovaGerar
2. Durban t
3. Graneros Plant
4. A.T. Biopower
FCCC/SBSTA/2003/L.27
1. Vale do Rosario ;
2. LFG CERUPT ;
3. El Gallo
CDM
CDM
/PROJECT PROPONENTS
CDM
CDM ,
:
CDM
CERs
PDD,
(/
NGOs)
/
/COP/MOP
(COP/MOP) CDM
(a) (b)
(c)
COP/MOP
CDM
CDM
161
CDM
(UNFCCC, 2001(a))
,
,
,
7
, ,
7
CDM
CDM
,
COP/MOP CDM
COP/MOP
CDM
162
,
,
2004 10
16 ,
16
3 CDM
(SSC Panel)
CDM
(Meth Panel)
4
CDM
10
www.unfccc.
int/cdm
/Operational Entity
COP/MOP CDM
,
/
CDM
CERs
,
COP/MOP
,
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g) CDM
CERs
CERs CO2
( t-CO2 e )
,
, COP/MOP
,
CDM
CDM
CERs
CDM
COP/MOP
/Supporting Institutions
/ Parties
CDM
163
CDM
/Other Stakeholders
164
CDM
,
CDM
CDM
(PDD) /
Preparation of a Project Design
Document
(PDD)
PDD
1. CDM
2.
3. /
4.
5.
6.
7.
CD-ROM
,
PDD
/Validation
CDM
; CDM ,
165
CDM
/Registration
CERs
3
,
CDM
8
/Monitoring
CDM
CDM
166
/Verification and
Certification
CDM
CDM
CERs/Issuance of CERs
CERs
3
CERs
15
CDM
30
CERs
CDM CERs
167
168
1.
2.
3.
1.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1.
2.
,
3.
169
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.
2.
3.
4.
170
5.
6.
7.
1.
2.
3.
4.
2004 6
30
171
1.
2.
Roland-Holst,
the
Technical
Development Center.
3.
Paris:
OECD
Environment Division.
8.
for
Emission
Baselines:
at SBSTA 10.
9.
additionality.
Specification.
Program
Mechanism:
172
Environment
der
Zurich.
6.
van
Methodologies
5.
and
Dominique
9(3): 89.
1998.
4.
7.
Trade
and
greenhouse
Institute.
Beghin,
John,
Sebastein
Dessus,
David
D.C.
gas
reductions:
problems,
Allowance
(KPI-ETS).
Environment.
Trading
Scheme
RIIA.
info.
Report
of
Chinese
Environmental
Cost
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Commercial
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Biomass
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Toronto.
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Washington,
D.C.:
of
A
the
Emissions.
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baseline
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ghgprotocol.org/ docs/options.pdf.
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tellus.org
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Global
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contributions
to
the
8293.
preparation).
50. NVROM
(Ministry
of
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political
aspects.
Global
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CD-ROM
CD-ROM
CD-ROM
CDM PDF
,
,
CLEAN
DEVELOPMENT
MECHANISM IN CHINA
TAKING A PROACTIVE AND
SUSTAINABLE APPROACH
PDF(
)
Annex
CD-ROM,
(1~4):
178
Annex
:
Six CDM Case Studies
Annex
:
Project Development Documents (PDDs)
for each Case Study
(PDD)
Annex
:
Methodological Annexes to Chapter 5
and 6
56
Annex
:
Matrix of Major International-Funded
CDM Studies in China
CDM
Annex
:
Relevant Materials from Other CDM
Projects in China
CDM
Annex
:
Key Literature on CDM in China
CDM
CD-ROM
Annex
:
Participants and Minutes from CDM
Stakeholder Meetings
CDM
Annex
:
Project Participants (Persons and
Institutions)
()
Annex
:
Written China CDM Conference
Materials
CDM
Annex
:
Video Presentations of the CDM
Conference
CDM
Annex
~
Annex
PDD Annex
Annex
Annex
I.2
CDM
Annex
,
(Annex
1
; Annex
2
6,
) ,
(Annex
10
Annex
7
9,
) Annex
20047
12
Power
Point Annex
Annex
Annex
CDM,
Annex
CDM
Annex
179