Forecasting rainfall trend for the monsoon season 2016

Fig. 1: 850 hPa anomaly, April-May 2016

Forecasting rainfall trend for the monsoon season 2016

Positive anomaly (green, yellow and dark yellow colour marked region) and negative anomaly
(light blue, blue, violet colour marked region) at 850 hPa geo potential height from 40S have been
called as high and low respectively. Moisture generated over Atlantic and Indian Oceans (from
east of 40W to 120E/140 E and north of 40 S) by cold fronts/ upper air troughs augment south
easterly trades through low level subtropical anticyclones during summer monsoon season as they
move eastwards and equator-wards. Combined 850 hPa pressure field for April and May 2016 (Fig.
1), from 40S, shows one high and one low (east of 105E) combination. These are the following
three criteria for normal rainfall over India: At least one pair of positive and negative

anomalies (high and low) is required between 040W and 120E along 40S/north of 40S,
(b) Continuous negative anomaly (continuous low) from 40S to 30N along 90E has to be
observed and (c) presence of a region of negative anomalies above positive anomalies
(low above high) or a region of positive anomalies completely surrounded by a region of
negative anomalies (high completely surrounded by low) has to be observed. Under first
criteria, as high is located in the rear of low (High-Low), moisture is transported from southern
hemisphere to northern hemisphere for occurrence of normal monsoon rainfall over India. During
this year normal monsoon rainfall (97% 6%) is the forecast as one high and one low combination
has been observed along 40S. Another low located at 60E (Fig. 1) is a weak low as it has further
weakened at 700 hPa (10000 feet). High-Low-High-Low combination is required for forecast of
101% 06% rainfall. Moisture feeding from Atlantic Ocean has not started because of absence of
low over AO. Only trace of low is seen east of 20W along 40S. Because of April 2016 pressure
field (Fig. 2, El-Nino effect) combined pressure field of April and May, is still being dominated by
high pressure area. From May picture (Fig.3), it is clearly seen, high is located in the rear of low
and high pressure region is reduced, because of gradual weakening of El-Nino. In this study,

Forecasting rainfall trend for the monsoon season 2016

Active: 101%, Normal: 97%, Below Normal: 92% and Deficient: 88% (<90%) have been forecast
with an error of 6%. This year pressure field is matching, to some extent, with 2010 (102%
rainfall occurred) pressure field. This study is based on the paper entitled Forecasting rainfall
trend over India during summer monsoon to be published in July 2016 in The journal of Indian
Geophysical Union. As El- Nino is not going to affect next year as La-Nina conditions are getting
prominent, chance of normal to excess normal rainfall during 2017 has increased.

Fig. 2: 850 hPa anomaly, April 2016

High pressure region (green, yellow, dark yellow, red coloured region) has been dominating from
S.H. to N.H. at 850 hPa pressure field in April 2016. Here, low (blue, dark blue and violet coloured
region) is surrounded by high. As a result additional moisture feeding from S.H. to Indian Seas has
been affected and April 2016 was warmest month.

Forecasting rainfall trend for the monsoon season 2016

Fig. 3: 850 hPa anomaly, May 2016

In May 2016, high pressure region (yellow, green etc.) from 40S at 5000 feet has reduced and high
is located in the rear of low (blue, violet etc.). This has happened because of weakening of El-Nino.
Respite from heat during May was observed as moisture feeding from South Indian Ocean to
Indian Seas increased during May because of high-low combination.
VINOD KUMAR,
Scientist E (retired),
Shyam Bhawan, Ashok Nagar, Road No. 11
Kankarbagh colony, Patna-800020, dated 5th June 2016
Email: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com