Statistics Teachers Guide

V 1.
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General Certificate of Education
Statistics
Teachers Guide
AQA Advanced Subsidiary GCE Statistics (5381)

AQA Advanced GCE Statistics (6381)
Further copies of this specification booklet are available from:

Aldon House, 39, Heald Grove, Rusholme, Manchester, M14 4PB.
Assessment and Qualifications Alliance 2004

COPYRIGHT
AQA retains the copyright on all its publications, including the specifications. However, the registered
centres for AQA are permitted to copy material from this specification booklet for their own internal
use.
Set and published by the Assessment and Qualifications Alliance.
Printed in Great Britain by Page Brothers, Mill Cross Lane, Norwich, Norfolk, NR6 6SA
The Assessment and Qualifications Alliance (AQA) is a company limited by guarantee registered in England and Wales 3644723 and a registered charity number 1073334.
Registered address AQA, Devas Street, Manchester M15 6EX.
Dr Michael Cresswell Director General.
Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide - Statistics
Contents
Background Information
1
Introduction
Where to find information
Contact points
Assessment of the Course

4
Specification at a Glance
Assessment issues
10
Coursework issues
12
Key dates
15
Finding the right questions in AQA past papers
16
Organisation of the Course

9
Delivery of the course
22
10
Resources
41
11
Relating the content to old AQA specifications
43
Other Information
Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors
12
AS and A Level Mathematics
45
13
FSMQ and AS Use of Mathematics
46
14
Glossary of Terms
47
Statistics - Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide
Background Information
1
Introduction
1.1
Who is this Teachers Guide

designed for?
This Teachers Guide has been provided to assist teachers and

lecturers in their preparation for the delivery of courses based on the
new AQA Advanced Subsidiary (AS) and Advanced Level (A Level)
in Statistics. The guide should be read in conjunction with the
Specification and the Specimen Material. These are available in hard
copy and on the AQA website www.aqa.org.uk.
1.2
Why are new GCE

Mathematics specifications
being introduced?
All Advanced Supplementary and Advanced Level syllabuses were

replaced from September 2000 by GCE specifications following the
Dearing Review of Qualifications for 16-18 Year Olds and the subsequent
consultation Qualifying for Success. The GCE Mathematics
specifications, complying with criteria produced by the Qualifications
and Curriculum Authority (QCA), were associated with various
problems, but particularly a significant reduction in take-up of
Mathematics in the post-16 age group. As a consequence, QCA has
rewritten the criteria and all awarding bodies in England, Northern
Ireland and Wales have developed new GCE Mathematics
specifications for first teaching from September 2004.
1.3
Why are AS and A Level

Statistics not available in the
new GCE Mathematics
specifications?
The rewritten QCA criteria do not permit the inclusion of subject

awards in Statistics within GCE Mathematics. AQA currently offers
AS Statistics and A Level Statistics within AQA GCE Mathematics
and Statistiscs B (6320) and wishes to continue this provision. AQA
has therefore developed a separate GCE Statistics specification,
offering qualifications in AS Statistics and A Level Statistics. It is
derived from AQA GCE Mathematics and Statistics B (6320), in
order to maintain, wherever possible, those features which are known
to be attractive to teachers and their students.
1.4
Why study Statistics?
The AQA senior examiners for this specification believe that Statistics
is a worthwhile subject in its own right but is also an excellent support
study for other subjects. The content of the AS specification has
been selected to include statistical knowledge, skills and techniques
which are needed for the study of other subjects, such as Biology,
Economics, Geography, Psychology and Business Studies. The A2
specification is designed to give an understanding of the calculation of
statistical measures, as well as their application and interpretation,
without requiring knowledge of Pure Mathematics beyond GCSE.
Statistics qualifications may appeal to the student who wishes to
pursue the study of a numerate post-16 subject, but does not want to
study Pure Mathematics. The emphasis of the AS and A Level
qualifications in this specification is on using and applying Statistics,
including, for example, the interpretation of outcomes in context.
The following page is designed to support teachers who want to make
a case in their school or college for the introduction or continued
provision of courses in Statistics, particularly AS Statistics.
Why is AS Statistics a valuable addition to post-16 provision?

AS Statistics provides:
an accessible AS qualification in a numerate subject for post-GCSE students who do not wish to study
Pure Maths;
It may be more suitable than AS Maths for students who have done GCSE Maths Intermediate Tier. These students usually
find the course more accessible than AS Maths, since no pure maths beyond GCSE is required. This accessibility has been
enhanced since the new GCSE Maths gives students a very good working knowledge of Statistics.
useful support for students studying many other subjects, such as GCE Biology, Psychology, Economics,
Geography, and Business Studies;
The content in AS Statistics is more relevant to many students than that in AS Maths. For Biology and Psychology where a
significant part of the course involves the use of statistics, the knowledge and skills taught by an AS Statistics course can be
vital. The relevance of Statistics has been recognised by Medical Schools for which it is now a preferred subject.
a possible route forward for students who, having started AS Maths, find they do not wish to continue
with pure maths and would give it up without an alternative;
Since S1 is common between AS Statistics and AS Maths, courses can be structured to facilitate transfers. A move to AS
Statistics, even after October half term, is generally successful. Having this route available within a centre ensures high retention
for maths subjects.
the first part of an A Level qualification in Statistics.
With the AQA specification, students who are successful at AS Statistics can continue to A Level Statistics.
In addition:
textbooks are available;

many past papers are available from AQA (the new specification is a follow-on from AQAs previous
provision);
AQA provides teacher support in a variety of forms, including on newer topics;
where it is offered, AS Statistics often becomes a popular option, increasing numbers studying with the
maths dept after GCSE.
2
2.1
Where to find information

Specification,
Specimen Material and
Teachers Guide
This Teachers Guide is intended to complement the information in

the Specification and in the Specimen Material. The Specification
gives full details of the teaching and learning modules, and of the
assessment units that lead to the qualifications AS Statistics and
A Level Statistics. The Specimen Material contains an example of the
question paper and the mark scheme for each assessment unit,
together with an assessment grid showing how the paper covers the
subject content of the module and how it complies with the specified
proportions of different types of assessment.
The Teachers Guide supplements these documents with information
such as the design of courses based on the Specification, guidance
about specific content, resources and administrative matters. It also
gives details of how the Specification relates to AQA Specifications
which pre-date it, and of which past paper questions are appropriate
for practice assessments on the Specification content.
2.2
Formulae Booklet
Formulae that candidates can look up and statistical tables they can
use during examinations are published in a Formulae Booklet.
Candidates should have a copy of the Formulae Booklet whenever
they sit an AS or A2 Statistics question paper. Teachers will want to
use the Formulae Booklet in class- and home-work so that students
become familiar with it.
AQA has issued a new Formulae Booklet for use with this
Specification and the new GCE Mathematics specification. It is
different to the book issued for the C2K specifications, for example,
it contains additional Pure Maths formulae. Therefore it is important
to use the Formulae Booklet which is appropriate to the specification
(old or new). The Formulae Booklets for the new specifications are
blue, whereas those for the old specifications are white.
The new Formulae Booklet will be available for the start of teaching
in September 2004. Centres should order these from the Guildford
Despatch department. Centres will need to obtain sufficient copies to
provide one copy for classroom and homework use for each student,
plus an appropriate number of copies to be kept by the Examinations
Officer as clean copies for examination use only. Each year, centres
will be given the opportunity to order top-up supplies.
2.3
Practice papers
Since the content of this new specification is largely the same as that
in AQAs GCE Mathematics and Statistics B specification (6320), a
large number of past papers are available which are relevant to this
specification. Therefore AQA has not prepared any practice papers
for the units in this specification.
In order to assist teachers in finding appropriate questions for the
new units from past papers, AQA has prepared an index which lists
past paper questions against the sections of the Specification. See
section 8 of this Teachers Guide.
2.4
Coursework packs
Coursework is optional for this specification. It forms part of the

assessment for unit SS1A. Some details of the coursework
requirements are included in the Specification. Further information is
given in a Coursework pack prepared for SS1A. The pack contains
details of AQA-recommended tasks, together with samples of
candidates work showing how it is assessed against the coursework
criteria. Copies of the coursework pack will be sent early in the
Autumn term to all centres making Estimated Entries for the above
unit. Copies are also available from the GCE Mathematics subject
department.
2.5
Coursework Advisers
Every centre undertaking coursework is assigned a Coursework

Adviser, who should be consulted if a centre wishes to use a
coursework task not on the AQA-recommended list, but who can
also advise on other matters such as the extent to which it is
appropriate to guide students and the application of the coursework
criteria when marking students work.
2.6
Website
Information about this GCE Statistics specification can be found at

www.aqa.org.uk/qual/gceasa/statistics.html
2.7
Meetings
AQA regularly holds two kinds of meetings for teachers of AS and

A Level Statistics. Each Autumn, teacher standardisation meetings
are held to ensure that teachers have a good understanding of the
standard required for coursework. When a centre first does
coursework for this specification, AQA requires that a representative
from the centre attends one of these meetings. Centres will be invited
on the basis of Estimated Entries information. There is no charge for
these meetings.
AQA also holds support meetings. These give advice on aspects of
teaching the specification content, information about administrative
matters, and feedback on candidate performance in past papers.
There may be a charge for these meetings. Details about the meetings
are posted to the AQA website, and meetings are bookable online.
2.8
Examinations Update
This booklet is sent 4 times a year to Examinations Officers. Any

changes to administrative requirements or to the specification content
are notified to centres through the Update. Where information is
subject specific, separate sheets are included for distribution to Heads
of Department. The Update is also published on the AQA website,
with, if appropriate, links to the relevant page for the subject.
2.9
Mailing List
The GCE Mathematics subject department has a mailing list of

named individuals who wish to be kept up-to-date with developments
in AQA GCE Mathematics and GCE Statistics. From time to time,
information published elsewhere is also sent direct to individuals on
the list. Contact the GCE Mathematics subject department if you
wish to be added to the list.
Contact points
GCE Statistics
AQA, Stag Hill House, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XJ
GCE Mathematics
tel no
01483 477 752
FSMQ
e-mail
mathematics-gce@aqa.org.uk
AS Use of Mathematics
GCSE Mathematics
AQA, Devas Street, Manchester, M15 6EX
GCSE Statistics
tel no
0161 958 3852
ELC Mathematics
e-mail
mathematics-gcse@aqa.org.uk
Teacher Support Meetings Mathematics
tel no
01483 477 859
e-mail
teachersupport@aqa.org.uk
Assessment of the Course

4
Specification at a Glance
Statistics
AS Examination 5381
Unit Statistics 1A (SS1A)
or
written paper and coursework

1 hours and one task
coursework weighted at
8.33% of total AS Marks
(4.17% of total A Level marks)
Unit Statistics 1B (SS1B)

written paper only
1 hours
all questions compulsory; graphics calculator allowed

each Unit weighted at
33.3% of the total AS marks
16.7% of the total A Level marks
Unit Statistics 2 (SS02)
1 hours
Advanced
Subsidiary Award

1 hours

5381
+
A2 Examination 6381
1 hours
1 hours

Advanced Award
6381

1 hours

Assessment Issues
5.1
Introduction
This section covers a number of issues which relate to assessment

units, including their aggregation into subject awards.
5.2
Calculators
For this specification, candidates are allowed to use any calculator

which complies with the rules in the JCQ Instructions for the Conduct of
Examinations. These rules allow both scientific and graphics
calculators, but AQA recommends that candidates use a graphics
calculator for GCE Statistics.
The use of a calculator is encouraged for the direct calculation of
means, standard deviations, variances, correlation coefficients and
regression coefficients. However, students should not simply copy
answers from advanced statistical calculators without explanation. An
indication of the method used should be shown for calculations such
as normal probabilities, confidence intervals and hypothesis tests.
Without this, candidates risk losing all the marks if for example a
mis-key means they get the wrong answer. For the same reason,
checking of results should be encouraged, for example, to ensure
that mis-keys are detected.
5.3
Coursework and
non-coursework units
Statistics 1 can be assessed either by written paper and coursework

(unit code with A) or by written paper only (unit code with B). Both
versions of the written paper assess the whole content of the relevant
teaching module, whether or not coursework is included in the
assessment. However, it is likely that the B papers, which have 75
marks compared to 60 for the A papers, will have a higher proportion
of marks on parts of the content which candidates will have to use in
coursework such as interpreting results in context.
5.4
Common Statistics 1 unit
The Statistics 1 assessment units, SS1A and SS1B, in this specification

are identical to the Statistics 1 units, MS1A and MS1B, in the AQA
GCE Mathematics specification. (The teaching module is also
identical.)
In any given examination series, candidates can be entered for only
one of SS1A, SS1B, MS1A or MS1B, but over different series they
can take any of the versions of S1. So candidates can have several
results for each of the entry codes SS1A, SS1B, MS1A and MS1B.
When AQA receives a subject award entry, results for SS1A/B will be
used only for aggregations within the GCE Statistics specification and
results for MS1A/B only for aggregations within the GCE
Mathematics specification. So aggregation of a GCE Statistics
subject award will not use up results for MS1A/B; and aggregation
of a GCE Mathematics subject award will not use up results for
SS1A/B.
10
5.5
Transfer of S1 results
Centres will be able to request that a result under one entry code is
transferred to the code for the equivalent unit from the other
specification e.g. from MS1A to SS1A, or from SS1B to MS1B. This
is so that students who start, for example, an AS Maths course and do
MS1A but who decide to change to AS Statistics can use their result
for MS1A as a result for SS1A.
AQA will not transfer results from one entry code to another unless
asked by a centre. This is to prevent AQAs computer using up a
candidates result for, say, SS1A towards AS Maths when the
candidate wanted to use it for AS Statistics. For example, the
candidate might be taking AS Maths with C1, C2 and D1 at the same
time as AS Statistics with S1, S2 and S3.
Where the assessment is the same, the associated documentation will
be the same. Common codes will be used when a document could be
used for either GCE Statistics or GCE Maths. The common codes
are:
for Statistics 1A writtten paper
for Statistics 1A courswork
for Statistics 1B written paper
MS/SS1A/W
MS/SS1A/C
MS/SS1B .
These or similar codes will appear on the exam papers, attendance

lists, candidate record forms and so on. This means that centres
wont have to make sure the exam paper given to each candidate
matches the entry code they were entered under.
5.6
Aggregation rules
Aggregation rules determine how unit results are combined to give

subject award outcomes. The rules for GCE Statistics are the same as
those for any GCE specification. They can be found on the Joint
Council for Qualifications (JCQ) website at www.jcgq.org.uk/
Publications_and_Common_Docs/Procedures_&_rules.pdf
Where a candidate has two or more results for a unit, the best result is
used for any subject awards (AS Statistics and/or A Level Statistics).
After aggregation, all results for units included in the subject award(s)
are used up and are not available for any future subject award(s) at
the same level (AS or A Level).
Note that for aggregation purposes SS1A and SS1B are treated as one
unit. In other words aggregating AS and/or A Level statistics will use
up all results for SS1A and for SS1B. As stated earlier (section 5.5),
results for MS1A and MS1B will be unaffected by aggregating AS or
A Level Statistics subject awards.
11
6
6.1
Coursework Issues
Introduction
One of the units in this specification, Statistics 1, may include

coursework as part of the assessment.
Some advantages of candidates undertaking coursework are:
it provides the opportunity to conduct an extended piece of

mathematical reasoning;
it enhances understanding of the particular area of content;
it develops the Key Skills and generates evidence for their

assessment;
it provides the opportunity to attempt real-life problems and

interpret them within context.
In Statistics 1, teachers may enter some candidates for the option of

coursework plus the written paper and others for the written paper
only. Where candidates begin coursework but are unable to finish, or
perform poorly, teachers are able to change their entries for such
candidates to the non-coursework option.
For those taking the coursework option, the submission of one piece
of coursework is required. A piece of coursework is expected to
represent approximately 8 to 10 hours work.
Coursework in this specification will be largely familiar to centres who
previously taught AQA GCE Mathematics Specification A (6300).
Most of the tasks remain the same, although one has changed. The
main difference is that Statistics 1 is now assessed at AS standard
instead of A2 standard.
It is hoped that centres choosing to try coursework for the first time
will be comfortable with the format and systems, and will find the
transition to coursework reasonably straightforward.
6.2
Tasks
A number of AQA recommended tasks are included in the Teachers

Coursework Guidance Pack. Teachers may wish to choose a task and
have all their candidates undertake it, or they may leave it up to
individual candidates which task they choose to pursue.
Alternatively, teachers may wish to propose a different task. Where
this is the case, they should submit the proposed alternative to their
Coursework Adviser for approval at least six weeks before it is to
be undertaken by candidates. The Coursework Adviser will consider
whether the alternative task enables candidates to meet all the
assessment criteria and will respond to centres accordingly.
12
6.3
Support from AQA

Teachers Coursework
Guidance Pack
AQA provides the following support for centres.

A Teachers Coursework Guidance Pack is available, containing:
a number of AQA recommended tasks;

exemplar materials showing how the marking criteria are to be
applied;
notes for students, which may be given to candidates;
notes for teachers, which should not be given to candidates.
Centres who advise AQA of their intention to enter using the

Estimated Entries Form supplied to Examinations Officers will
automatically be sent a Teachers Coursework Guidance Pack the first time
they enter. Where an Estimated Entries Form has not been completed,
centres should telephone AQA for a copy of the appropriate pack.
Teachers Standardisation
Meetings
Free Teachers Standardisation meetings run every Autumn Term for

new centres or those who have had problems in the previous year, to
include:
feedback to centres on the moderation process;
further guidance on the application of the marking criteria;
marking exercises, written commentaries and further exemplar

materials.
In the first year of the specification, all centres must attend one of
these meetings before marking coursework.
Coursework Advisers
6.4
Key Skills
Coursework Advisers are available who can offer support and

guidance on the marking criteria and can approve alternative tasks
centres may wish to use. The GCE Statistics subject department (see
Contact Points section) should be contacted for details of the
Coursework Adviser allocated to your centre.
Undertaking coursework can develop candidates Key Skills and

generate evidence for their assessment. For example, in attempting a
piece of coursework, a student may need to:
Research information for assumptions made using either

electronic sources such as the internet (IT3.1) or from written
materials (C3.2).
Discuss the tasks in groups in the initial stages, before writing up

(C3.1a).
Plan and collect relevant data and information ensuring that the
sample size used is appropriate (N3.1).
Ensure that an appropriate range of calculations is attempted and

that answers are quoted to appropriate levels of accuracy (N3.2).
Write up an extended document which may include charts,

diagrams, spreadsheets, etc using a range of presentational
techniques and media (C3.3, N3.3, IT3.3).
13
Interpret their results and relate them back to the original task
(N3.3).
Consider if any method of validation is available to check their

results. This may include electronic methods such as e-mailing.
(IT3.1)
Write coherently and effectively using accurate English skills

(C3.3).
Taken as a whole, the piece of coursework submitted by a candidate

may provide a significant proportion of the evidence needed for
success to be achieved in Key Skills Qualifications.
6.5
Administration
Candidates should not use pencil in their coursework, except in

diagrams. Coursework may be written in dark ink or word processed.
Candidates coursework should have the pages numbered and should
be fastened using staples or treasury tags in the top left hand corner.
Please do not use plastic wallets or folders.
Coursework must be annotated (in red pen) to show where marks
have been awarded. Candidates calculations must be checked and
errors taken into account in the marking. Teachers annotation is very
helpful to the moderation process and helps enable moderators to
endorse centres marking.
A Candidate Record Form must be completed for each candidate,
with the declaration signed by the candidate to confirm the work is
their own, and details given by the teacher of any additional assistance
given. There are two marking grids included: the first is less detailed
and its completion is mandatory; the other is more detailed and is
optional. Completion of the marking grids greatly helps the
moderation process.
A Centre Declaration Sheet, to confirm that internal standardisation
has taken place within the centre, must also be sent to the moderator,
even when only one teacher marks coursework at the centre.
Candidate Record Forms and Centre Declaration Sheets are available
on the website www.aqa.org.uk.
Centres must submit their marks and, unless all their candidates are
carrying forward coursework marks from previous sessions, a sample
of coursework to the moderator. A deadline exists for receipt of the
materials by the moderator and centres should ensure that they are
aware of and meet the deadline. Where a particular issue arises which
may lead to late submission, centres should request an extension to
the coursework deadline in writing to AQA.
Further details of the moderation process are available in the
Specification and more detailed series-specific instructions will be sent
to Examinations Officers before the submission is due.
6.6
14
Guidance Notes for

Candidates
Guidance notes for candidates on undertaking Statistics coursework

are available in the Teachers Coursework Guidance Pack.
Key dates
10 January 2005
Last date for submission of coursework marks for January 2005
27 January 2005 (Thurs pm)
Date of examination for MS/SS1A/W, MS/SS1B
17 March 2005
Issue of January 2005 results
21 March 2005
Last date for entries for Summer 2005
15 May 2005
Last date for submission of coursework marks for Summer 2005
9 June 2005 (Thurs am)
Date of examination for MS/SS1A/W, MS/SS1B, SS02
20 June 2005 (Mon am)
Date of examination for SS03
21 July 2005
Last date for Estimated Entries booklet to be returned by

Examinations Officers for January 2006 examinations
18 August 2005
Issue of Summer 2005 results
10 October 2005
Last date for Estimated Entries booklet to be returned by

Examinations Officers for Summer 2006 examinations
21 October 2005
Last date for entries for January 2006

NB
The above dates are provisional and should be checked against the
final versions of the Examination Timetable and the Calendar of Key
Dates, both of which can be viewed via the AQA website.
Dates for future years may vary, but are likely to be similar to the
above. Again, for exact dates centres should check the most up-todate versions of the Examination Timetable and the Calendar of Key
Dates.
15
8.1
Finding the right questions in

AQA past papers
Introduction
This section shows, for each sub-heading of the subject content in the
specification, which past paper questions are relevant. It is intended to
help teachers assemble homeworks and practice assessments.
The list is intended to be helpful for teaching purposes but does not
cover every possible type of question which could be set. For example
all the questions below on the binomial distribution can be answered
using tables whereas it is possible that questions will be set which
require the calculation of binomial probabilities. The number of
questions in each section reflects the number of past questions
available and does not necessarily reflect the relative importance of the
section in the old specification.
The list indexes AQA GCE Mathematics and Statistics B questions
only, because many of the questions in AQA GCE Mathematics A are
different in style to that of the new specifications, whereas those in
Specifications B are similar.
8.2
Statistics 1
Numerical Measures
Probability
Binomial Distribution
Normal Distribution
16
MBS1
2001
2002
MBS1
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Jun
Nov
Q5
Q4(b)(c)
Q3(c)(d)
Jan
Q5
Q5
Q6
Q7
MBS1
2001
2002
2003
2004
Q1
Q5
Q6
MBS1
2001
2002
2003
2004
Q2
Q8
Q7
Q5
Jun
Q4
Q7
Q3
Jan
Nov
Q7
Q7
Jun
Q3
Q6
Q1
Jan
Q2
Q6
Jun
Q6
Q4
Q8
Nov
Nov
Q1, Q6
Q5
Estimation
MBS1
2002
2003
MBS4
2002
MBS5
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Jun
Nov
Q5(b)
Q2
Jan
Jun
Jan
Jun
Q1
Q3
Q2
Q6
Q4
Q3
Q2
Note. Although the MBS5 questions are within the specification they
were set at A2 level and so the later parts are more demanding than
questions likely to be set in Statistics 1.
Correlation and Regression
8.3
MBS1
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q1, Q6
Q2, Q7
Q2, Q8
Q2, Q8
MBS2
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Jun
Q2, Q7
Q2, Q8
Q7
Nov
Q8
Q1, Q8
Statistics 2
Time Series Analysis
Sampling
MBS1
2002
2003
2004
MBS2
2001
2002
2003
2004
Q2
Q1
Q1, Q2
Jun
Q1
Q1
Q1
Jan
Jun
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q2
Q3(b)
Jan
Q4
Q5
Q6
Jun
Q5
Q3
Q4
17
Discrete Probability
Distributions
MBS1
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q4
Q6
Q1, Q3
Q1
MBS4
2001
2002
2003
Jan
Jun
Q1
Q1
Q5
Nov
Q4
Q3
Jun
Q1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q2
Note. The MBS4 questions are within the specification but were set at
A2 level and so the later parts are more demanding than questions
likely to be set in Statistics 2.
Interpretation of Data
Application of Hypothesis
Testing
MBS2
2001
2002
2003
Q5
Q4
MBS4
2003
Q1
MBS5
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Jun
Q3
Q5
Q5
Jan
Jun
Jan
Jun
Q4
Q6
Q5
Q5
Q5
Q3
Note. Although these questions are within the specification they were
set at A2 level and so the later parts are more demanding than
questions likely to be set in Statistics 2.
8.4
Statistics 3
Contingency Tables in Realworld Situations
MBS4
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q2
Q3
Q1
Jun
Q4
Q4
Q1
Note. The MBS4 questions are within the specification but were set at
A2 level and so the later parts are more demanding than questions
likely to be set in Statistics 3.
18
Distribution Free Methods
Correlation
8.5
MBS3
2001
2002
2003
2004
MBS3
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q3, Q4
Q2, Q4
Q1, Q3, Q5
Jun
Q3, Q4
Q2, Q4
Q2, Q3
Jan
Jun
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q4
Statistics 4
Continuous Probability
Distributions
Distributional
Approximations
Estimation in a Real-world
Context
MBS7
2002
2003
2004
MBS2
2001
2002
2003
2004
MBS2
2001
2002
2003
2004
MBS4
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q4
Q5
Q5
Jun
Q2
Q6
Jan
Jun
Q2
Q2
Q2
Q1
Q3
Q5
Jan
Jun
Q4
Q4
Q3
Q3
Q2
Q4
Jan
Q5
Q6
Q2
Jun
Q2
Q2
Q4
19
Testing
8.6
Estimation
Testing
Q6
Q5
Q4
MBS7
2002
2003
2004
Q3
Q3
Q6
Jun
Q5
Q5
Q5
Jan
Jun
Q4
Q3
MBS7
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q2
Q4(a)(b)
Q2
MBS7
2002
2003
2004
Q1
Q1
Q1
Jan
Jun
Q1
MBS7
2001
2002
2003
2004
Jan
Q5
Q2, Q6
Q4, Q7
MBS8
2002
2003
Jun
Q2, Q5
Q1, Q4
MBS8
2002
2003
Jun
Jun
Q1, Q5, Q6
Q2, Q5
Statistics 6
Experimental Design
Analysis of Variance
Statistical Process Control
20
Jan
Statistics 5
Distributions
8.7
MBS4
2001
2002
2003
2004
MBS8
2002
2003
Q4
Q3, Q6
Jun
Q1
Q2
Acceptance Sampling
MBS8
2002
2003
Jun
Q3
Q5
21
Organisation of the Course

9
Delivery of the course
9.1
Introduction
The purpose of these outline schemes of work is to provide advice

and guidance to teachers, not to prescribe and restrict their approach
to the specification. Please bear in mind that there is no requirement
to use these schemes, which are suggestions only and are by no means
the only approaches possible.
9.2
AS Statistics
The AS Statistics course is probably taught in most schools/colleges

over a 32 week maximum time period with, say, around 4.5 hours per
week typically giving 3 lessons of 1.5 hours each week. This provides
around 144 hours teaching per academic year. The Statistics modules
are equally weighted so need approximately equal teaching time
However, the terms are commonly unevenly balanced with an
Autumn term of 14/15 weeks, a Spring term of 12/13 weeks (but
with an exam series during that time) and a short Summer term of
about 5 weeks prior to the main exam period in late May mid June.
Care must be taken to introduce the course gradually with SS1A/B to
ensure that the basic grounding is there but also to introduce topics
from the second module, SS02, in the Autumn term, so that time
constraints do not prevent the full course being covered by the
summer exam period.
SS1A/B can be successfully taken after one terms study or it may be
taken at the end of the year, together with SS02 and SS03.
A suggested outline scheme of work for one teacher taking an AS
class throughout the year is shown in the first table.
If two teachers share the AS Statistics teaching, then a suggested
scheme of work for an AS class throughout the year is given in the
second table.
22
AS Statistics one teacher

Term
Autumn
Term
Sept/Dec
15 weeks
Spring Term
Jan/April
Topics / Module
Ref
9/10
11/12
13
SS1A/B
Introduction and Collection of Data, Sampling
Probability
Descriptive Statistics
Discrete Probability distributions : Binomial
Continuous Probability distributions : Normal and
Central Limit Theorem
Confidence Intervals on Means
Revision and Mock SS1A/B exam
10.5
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.6
14
15
SS02
Sampling
Time Series Analysis - basics
Weeks
16/17
17
18/19
20/21
21/23
23/24
Revision for SS1A/B exam if taken in January

Time Series analysis advanced
Discrete Probability distributions: Poisson
Hypothesis Testing
Revision and Mock SS02 exam
Weeks
1
2/3
3/4
5/6
7/8
24/25
12 weeks
26
27
Summer
Term
April/May
Weeks
28
29
29/30
31
5 weeks
32
33/34
SS03
Hypothesis Tests for Association using 2 distribution
for analysis of Contingency Tables
Correlation Spearmans Rank
Hypothesis Tests on Spearman and product moment
correlation coefficients
Distribution Free Methods: Single Sample tests:

Sign and Wilcoxon
Distribution Free Methods: Experimental design
Distribution Free Methods: Paired and
Two Independent Sample tests
Distribution Free Methods: More than Two Independent
Samples - Kruskal-Wallis test
Revision sessions on whole course
11.2
11.1
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.5
12.1
12.3
12.3
12.2.1
12.2.2
12.2.2
12.2.3
12.2.4
23
AS Statistics two teachers

Teacher 1
Term
Topics/Module
Ref
Autumn
Term
Week
1/4
4/8
9/12
13
15 weeks
14/15
SS1A/B
Descriptive Statistics and Collection of Data
Continuous Probability Distributions:Normal and CLT
Confidence Intervals on Means
SS02
Sampling
Spring Term
Week
16/17
17/21
22

Hypothesis Testing
Revision of SS02
23/25
26/27
12 weeks
Summer
Term
Week
28/29
30/31
32
33/34
24
SS03
Distribution Free Methods: Single Sample tests:
Sign and Wilcoxon
Distribution Free Methods: Experimental design
Also introduce Paired tests
Distribution Free Methods: Paired tests
and Two Independent Sample tests
Independent Samples, Kruskal-Wallis test
10.1, 10.5
10.4, 10.5
10.5
11.2
11.5
12.2.1
12.2.2
12.2.2
12.2.3
12.2.4
Teacher 2
Term
Autumn
Term
Topics/Module
Week
1/4
4/8
9/12
13
14/15
Spring Term
Week
16/17
17/18
19/22
23/24
24
25/27
Summer
Term
Week
28/30
30/31
32
33/34
SS1A/B
Probability
Discrete Probability distributions: Binomial
SS02
Time Series Analysis - basics

Time Series Analysis advanced
Discrete Probability distributions: Poisson
SS03
Hypothesis Tests for Association using 2 distribution
for analysis of Contingency Tables Correlation
Spearmans Rank Hypothesis Tests
Product moment correlation coefficients
Ref
10.2
10.3
10.6
11.1
11.1
11.3
11.4
12.1
12.3
12.3
25
9.3
A2 Statistics units
The A2 Statistics course is probably taught in most schools/colleges

over a 33 week maximum time period with, say, around 4.5 hours per
week typically giving 3 lessons of 1.5 hours each week. This provides
around 148.5 hours teaching per academic year. The terms are
commonly unevenly balanced with many centres utilising 2 weeks
post exam time in the summer term of year 12 to start A2 teaching
and then an Autumn term of 14/15 weeks, a Spring term of 12/13
weeks (but with an exam series during that time) and a short Summer
term of about 5 weeks prior to the main exam period in mid June.
SS04 can be successfully taken after one terms study or it may be
taken at the end of the year, together with SS05 and SS06.
The Statistics modules are equally weighted and therefore SS04 can be
taught for the majority of the Autumn term but also some topics,
from the module SS05, will need to be introduced in the Autumn
term.
A suggested scheme of work for one teacher taking an A2 class
throughout the year is shown in the following table.
Term
Topics / Module
Ref
Summer term Weeks

after the
37/38
AS exams
SS04
Distributional Approximations
13.2
Autumn term
Sep/Dec
1/2
3/4
5/6
7/9
10/11
12/13
14
15 weeks
26
15
Estimation Approx confidence intervals for Binomial

and Poisson
Estimation Approx confidence intervals for mean
based on sample from Normal distribution with
unknown standard deviation t distribution
Hypothesis test for mean based on sample form Normal
distribution with unknown standard deviation
t distribution
Hypothesis tests for Binomial proportion and Poisson
mean exact or Normal approximation
Continuous probability distributions linear
combinations
SS05
Confidence Intervals for variance and standard deviation
based on sample from Normal distribution using 2
Hypothesis tests for variance and standard deviation
based on sample from Normal distribution using 2
13.3
13.3
13.4
13.4
13.1
14.2
14.3
Spring Term
Weeks
Jan/April
16/18
19/20
20/23
23/24
25
26
26/27
12 weeks
Summer
Term
Weeks
April/May
28/29
30/31
32/33
5 weeks
34
Revision for SS04 exam if taken in January to include

revision of all hypothesis testing (to include tests on
variance and standard deviation)
Continuous Probability distributions Rectangular and
Exponential
2 Goodness of Fit test for Binomial, Poisson,
Rectangular, Exponential, Normal and specific discrete
Two independent samples test for variances, using F
and for means, using z or t
SS06
Experimental design
Analysis of paired comparisons using t test
Revision of sign test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test
Statistical Process control Control Charts

Acceptance Sampling
Analysis of Variance one-factor, two-factor and Latin
Square design
14.1
14.3
14.3
15.1
15.1
15.3
15.4
15.2
27
9.4
Notes on subject content
The following notes are provided on particular sections of the subject

content about which some teachers have indicated they would value
additional guidance.
There is probably more interest in time series analysis than in any

other area of statistics. This is because nearly all organisations,
whether large businesses, government, local authorities or corner
shopkeepers, need to forecast future demand for goods and services.
Whilst statistical methods may be used to project past patterns into
the future, there is no guarantee, or even likelihood, that these past
patterns will continue. It is nearly always useful to make a forecast
based on statistical methods, but it is unwise to make exaggerated
claims for the likely accuracy of such a forecast.
Time series are often thought of as being composed of some or all of
the following elements:
Trend
a long-term smooth movement
Seasonal variation
ice cream sales may be higher in the

summer than the winter; a market stall
may take more money on a Saturday
than a Monday
variation about the trend which is
neither regular nor random
by definition these cannot be forecast
Short term variation

Random variation
Candidates should be aware that the division of a time series into

these elements has a large subjective element and the meaning of the
terms is heavily dependent on the context. For example, in terms of
climatic change, 20 years might be regarded as short-term and 1000
years as long-term, whereas a corner shop might regard a week as
short-term and a year as long-term.
There are many alternative methods of dealing with seasonal variation
but candidates will only be expected to use a simple additive model
and to estimate the magnitude of seasonal effects by comparing
observations with the appropriate moving average. Nothing more
complex than the example in the specimen assessment unit SS02 will
be set.
If seasonal variation is present, it is usually best to attempt to remove
it (or to deseasonalise the data) before examining trend and other
forms of variation. The simplest form of trend is a straight line.
Questions could be set which require the use of simple linear
regression to estimate trend, alternatively estimating trend by eye (as
in the specimen question) will be sufficient.
Only a descriptive treatment of short-term and random variation is
required.
28
Example: Plot points illustrating a time series which exhibits:

(i)
random variation about an upward linear trend;
(ii) short-term variation about a downward linear tend;
(iii) seasonal variation about an upward linear trend;
(iv) random variation about a non-linear upward trend.
Defining distribution free tests (also known as non-parametric tests) is

not easy. The term applies to a group of tests which do not assume
that the population from which the sample(s) are taken is normally
distributed. They also do not require data measured on a ratio scale,
and ranking is sufficient. They may, however, require some other
assumptions to be made.
Tests, such as the t-test and F-test, which require more assumptions
are generally more powerful (that is more likely to reject a false null
hypothesis) than the equivalent distribution free test. However, the
difference in power is in some cases quite small.
Sign Test
A soft drinks dispenser is set to dispense 200 ml of liquid. The

contents of a random sample of 20 drinks were measured in ml.
202 196 192 194 199 203 190 191 194 199
193 189 188 187 204 199 197 191 204 195
Does the machine need resetting?
A t-test could be used to test the hypothesis that the mean of all
drinks is 200 ml. This would require the assumption of a normal
distribution. As there are approximately 20 observations, it would be
reasonable to assume that the mean was approximately normally
distributed. However, an alternative approach which does not require
this assumption is the sign test. This tests a hypothesis about the
population median.
29
H 0 : population median = 200

H1 : population median < 200
Determine for each member, x, of the sample whether x 200 is

positive or negative.
ie
+----+--------+---+-
That is, 4 out of 20 are +.

There are now two possible approaches: the p-value approach and
the critical values approach.
The p-value approach The null hypothesis is assumed to be true and the probability of
obtaining the observed result or a less likely result is calculated. In
this case, this is the probability of obtaining 4 or fewer + signs out of
20. This comes from B(20, 0.5) and may be found from tables to be
0.0059. This value is the p-value. If it is less than 0.05, then the null
hypothesis is rejected at the 5% significance level. In this case, we
would reject the hypothesis at the 5% level and also at the 1% level,
since the p-value is less than 0.01.
For a two-sided test

H1 : population median 200

Here, large numbers of + signs would also be unlikely. The p-value
would include probabilities from both tails of the distribution. Since
the null hypothesis leads to a binomial distribution with p = 0.5, the
distribution is symmetrical and all that is necessary is to double the
previous p-value. Thus, for a two-sided test, the p-value is
2 0.0059 = 0.0118 . In this case, the hypothesis would still be
rejected at the 5% level but not at the 1% level.
Critical values An alternative approach is to find critical values. These can be
calculated before any data is collected.
For a one-sided test

H1 : population median < 200
H 0 will be rejected if a small number of + signs are found. Using
tables for B(20, 0.5),
P(4 or fewer) = 0.0059
P(5 or fewer) = 0.0207
P(6 or fewer) = 0.0577
P(7 or fewer) = 0.1316.
The distribution is discrete and so the risk of rejecting a true null

hypothesis (Type I error) can only take certain values. Unlike tests
involving the normal distribution, a risk of, say, exactly 5% cannot be
taken. If a 5% significance level is required, then, strictly speaking, a
critical value of 6, giving a critical region of 6 or fewer, would not be
satisfactory as the risk of rejecting a true hypothesis would be 0.0577,
a little greater than 5%. The critical value would have to be 5, giving a
critical region of 5 or fewer. However, the risk of rejecting a true
hypothesis is now only 0.0207. Common sense would argue that if a
5% significance level is sought, it is better to take a 5.8% risk than a
2.1% risk. The AQA statistical tables for distribution free tests are
30
constructed on the common sense basis of taking a risk as near as

possible to the required value. [Statistical purists would disagree and
argue that the risk should always be less than or equal to the stated
significance level.]
In this example, a critical region of 6 or fewer would be chosen and
the observed value of 4 would lead to the null hypothesis being
rejected at the 5% significance level.
For a two-sided test
H1 : population median 200

The probability of obtaining r or fewer + signs is the same as the
probability of obtaining r or fewer signs.
Thus, if a 5% significance level is required in this example, the nearest
that can be obtained is a critical region of 5 or fewer + signs and 5 or
fewer signs (or 15 or more + signs). This gives a risk of wrongly
rejecting the null hypothesis of 2 0.027 = 0.0414 . Again, as 4 +
signs were observed, the null hypothesis would be rejected.
p-values versus critical Either method is valid, although it can be argued that p-values are
values more informative. However, tests will often have to be carried out
where the necessary calculations are extremely lengthy and complex
but tables of critical values are available. In these cases, it will be
necessary to use the critical value approach.
Note 1 The sign test is most useful when it is possible to identify the sign but
not the magnitude of each observation. For example, in the example
above, if the drink was poured into containers with the 200 ml level
marked, it would be easy to tell whether the amount dispensed was
greater than or less than 200 ml but not possible to measure the exact
amount.
Note 2 For a continuous distribution it is always possible, in theory, to decide
whether an observation is greater than 200 ml or less than 200 ml. In
the above example, the data is recorded to the nearest ml and so, in
practice, it will sometimes be impossible to decide. In this case, the
observation should be ignored. Provided that only a small proportion
of observations are ignored, the test will still be valid.
Wilcoxons Signed-Rank Test This test can also be used to test the hypothesis that the median
volume of soft drink dispensed is 200 ml. The critical values are
calculated on the assumption that the distribution from which the
sample is drawn is symmetrical and so the mean and the median will
be identical. In the sign test, all observations above 200 ml are
regarded as equal but, in this test, the magnitude of the difference is
also considered.
H 0 : = 200
H1 : 200
x 200 : 2, 4, 8, 6, 1, 3, 10, 9, 6, 1, 7, 11, 12, 13, 4, 1, 3, 9, 4, 5
31
The magnitude of the differences is then ranked. Unfortunately, in

this case, there are some ties. This is overcome by allocating the
average of the ranks to each member of the tie. In theory, for
continuous data, ties will not occur but, in practice, because the data is
recorded to the nearest ml, they will occur.
Ranks:
4, 8, 14, 11.5, 2, 5.5, 17, 15.5, 11.5, 2, 13, 18, 19, 20, 8, 2, 5.5, 15.5, 8, 10
The sum of the ranks of differences with the same sign is then
calculated.
T+ = 4 + 5.5 + 8 + 8 = 25.5
T = 8 + 14 +11.5 + 2 + 17 + 15.5 + 11.5 + 2 + 13 + 18 + 19 + 20

+ 2 + 5.5 + 15.5 + 10 = 184.5
Note There are two reasons why it is not necessary to calculate both T+
and T . Firstly, T+ and T will be the sum of the integers 1 to n, in
this case 1 to 20, = 21 20 21 = 210 and so T+ may be derived
from T . Secondly, tables of critical values require only the smaller

(or for some tabulations the larger) of T+ and T . It is usually
obvious which of T+ and T is going to be smaller.
The values of T+ are now compared with a critical value from tables.
Note There are different ways of tabulating the critical values. The AQA
Formulae and Statistical Tables booklet tabulates the lower critical
value and give a formula for obtaining the upper critical value, if
required. The AQA tables tabulate critical values with significance
levels closest to the stated value, as discussed. Note also that, strictly
speaking, the tables of critical values should be recalculated to allow
for the ties in the data. However, provided there are not an excessive
number of ties, any changes would be small.
For the AQA tables it is only necessary to compare the smaller of T+

and T , in this case 25.5, with the appropriate critical value. For a
two-sided 5% risk and a sample of size 20, the appropriate critical
value is 52. Since 25.5 is less than 52, the null hypothesis is rejected
and there is significant evidence that the median is not equal to, and
in this case clearly less than, 200 ml.
For samples greater than 20, critical values may be found from a
normal approximation, but this is beyond the level of understanding
required in the specification.
Both the sign-test and Wilcoxons signed-rank test may be applied to
data from paired comparisons.
Mann-Whitney U Test
32
This test may be applied to two independent random samples of size

m and n respectively, from unknown continuous distributions. The
procedure is to rank all of the data (both samples together), giving
rank 1 to the smallest observation. To test the hypothesis that both
n( n + 1)
samples come from identical populations, calculate U = T
2
where T is the sum of the ranks of the sample of size n .
Refer to the tables for critical values of U .
For example, the manager of a road haulage firm records the times, in
minutes, taken for a lorry to travel from the depot to a particular
customers factory. On six occasions, route A is used and on eight
occasions, route B is used.
Route A
Route B
34
43
45
35
36
47
48
39
49
58
38
40
39
51
H 0 : the samples come from identical populations

H1 : the samples do not come from identical populations
rank
A
34
1
B
35
2
A
36
3
A
38
4
B
39
5
B
39
6
B
40
7
B
43
8
A
45
9
B
47
10
A
48
11
A
49
12
B
51
13
B
58
14
Note There are two observations of 39. Since they both come from route
B, it does not matter which is ranked 5 and which is ranked 6. If they
had come from different routes it would have been necessary to give
both the rank of 5.5.
Calculate T, the sum of the sample of size n. The other sample is of

size m. To reduce the amount of calculation, choose n < m , but this
is not essential.
T = 1 + 3 + 4 + 9 + 11 + 12 = 40 .
Now calculate U = T
n( n + 1)
2
= 40 6 7 = 19
2
Obtaining critical values As for Wilcoxons signed-rank test, the AQA Formulae and Statistical
from tables Tables booklet tabulates lower critical values and significance levels
closest to the stated value. There are a number of different ways of
tabulating the critical values, so tables found elsewhere are likely to be
different, although equally correct.
For a 5% two-sided risk, the lower critical value is 8. The upper

critical value is 6 8 8 = 40 . Since 19 lies between 8 and 40, H 0 is
accepted.
Note Strictly speaking, the null hypothesis is that the populations are
identical in every respect and the alternative is that they are not
identical. However, it is clear from the nature of the test that the null
hypothesis would only be rejected if most of the low observations
were from the same sample. This would indicate that one population
was on average smaller than the other. If the populations had similar
averages but differed in, say, variability, this would be unlikely to lead
to the null hypothesis being rejected. Hence, the Mann-Whitney test
is commonly treated as a test on averages without being specific about
the particular measure of average.
33
The Kruskal-Wallis test
This test is used when there are more than 2 populations to be

compared and the data does not require the distribution to be normal.
Samples are taken at random from each population.
The 2 distribution should be used to provide critical values.
Candidates will be expected to know to use a 2 distribution with
k 1 degrees of freedom ( where k is the number of populations to
be compared).
k
Ti 2
12
3(N + 1)
Test statistic H =
N ( N + 1) i =1 ni
This formula is in the AQA Formulae and Statistical Tables booklet.
Procedure 1
Rank all observations as if they come from one sample.

(In SS03 candidates will not be asked to rank more than 3
samples. More than 3 samples could be used if ranking was
given in the question.)
Find N = total number of observations.
Find T1 T2 Tk the totals of the ranks for samples 1, 2 k.

k
Ti 2
Find
ni
i =1
where ni is the number of observations in the i th sample.
Evaluate H .
Compare H with relevant 2 critical value,

k 1 degrees of freedom.
Hypotheses and Conclusions The null hypothesis, H0 , is samples taken from identical
populations.
However, because of the nature of the test, only a difference in

average is likely to lead to a rejection of H0 and so the test is
regarded as a test of average. (This is exactly the same as the MannWhitney test.) Hypotheses which refer to the population and a
measure of average will be marked correct.
The alternative hypothesis, H1 , is at least two of the averages differ;
or samples taken from populations which are not identical.
Note that the acceptance of the alternative hypothesis only concludes
that at least two of the populations differ. All may differ, or just two.
34
Example Three different types of milling machine are being considered for
purchase by a small engineering company. In order to assess these
machines, each type was obtained on free loan and was randomly
assigned to one of 16 technicians, all equally skilled in machine
operation.
Each machine was put through a series of tasks and was assessed in
various categories. A total score, out of a maximum of 40, was then
assigned to each machine by the technicians.
The scores are given below.
Machine 1
24.4
23.3
26.3
27.0
29.8
Machine2
28.3
34.1
32.2
30.0
29.4
Solution
Machine 3
32.1
34.2
36.1
32.4
35.5
33.9
(a)
Perform a Kruskal-Wallis test to investigate whether there is

any significant difference in median scores between the
machines. Use the 5% significance level.
(b)
Recommend to the company which type of machine should be

purchased.
(a)
H0: Samples from identical populations

H1: Samples not from identical populations
or
H0 : 1 = 2 = 3
H1 : At least two of 1 , 2 , 3 do differ
N = 16
Machine 1
24.4
23.3
26.3
27.0
29.8
rank
15
16
14
13
10
Machine2
28.3
34.1
32.2
30.0
29.4
T1 = 68
k
i =1
5% sig level
rank
12
4
7
9
11
Machine 3
32.1
34.2
36.1
32.4
35.5
33.9
T2 = 43
rank
8
3
1
6
2
5
T3 = 25
2
2
2
Ti 2
= 68 + 43 + 25 = 1398.77
5
5
6
ni
H=
12 1398.77 ( 3 17) = 10.71

16 17
critical value from 2 with 2 degrees of freedom, at 5% level is 5.99

10.71 > 5.99
35
So there is significant evidence to reject H0 and conclude that at least

two of the median scores do differ.
(b) It would certainly appear that machine 3 is preferable to
machine 1 and 3 is recommended for purchase.
Latin Squares
A commuter in a large city is able to travel to work by bus, car or

bicycle. To compare the time taken by each of these methods, she
timed a number of journeys with the following results.
Bus
28
Car
17
Bicycle 34
47
43
32
32
29
31
59
38
The following analysis of variance table arises from this data.

Source
Method of transport
Residual
Total
Sum of
Squares
258.3
976.4
1234.7
Degrees of
Freedom
2
8
10
Mean
Square
129.2
122.0
A test of the hypothesis that there is no difference in the average time

129.2
between methods of transport yields an F ratio of
= 1.06 , with
122.0
a 5% critical value of 4.46. Thus, there is no significant evidence of a
difference.
In the table, the residual sum of squares represents the contribution
of experimental error to the variability in the data. In this example,
experimental error is the effect of all factors other than the method of
transport on the time to travel to work. For these data this effect is
quite large, so that even if there was a difference between methods of
transport, it might be swamped by the experimental error. If the
experimental error could be reduced, there would be more chance of
establishing a difference if one exists.
The commuter identifies day of the week and time of leaving home as
two factors which are likely to have made a large contribution to the
experimental error. Either one of these could be dealt with by using a
randomised block design, leading to a two-factor analysis of variance.
For example, the following data could be collected.
Time of leaving home
7.45 am
8.15 am
8.45 am
Method of transport
Bus
Car
Bicycle
The time of leaving home would be the blocking factor. There is no

reason why a second blocking factor could not be introduced by
collecting the required nine observations on each of Monday,
Wednesday and Friday. The resulting 27 observations could be
analysed using a three-factor analysis of variance. However, the
amount of data to be collected may seem excessive relative to the
importance of the investigation. The Latin Square design is a way of
including two blocking factors without increasing the amount of data
to be collected.
36
Example of a Latin Square The commuter finally collected the following data.
Time of leaving home
7.45 am
8.15 am
8.45 am
32(M)
27(W)
38(F)
31(F)
30(M)
17(W)
37(W)
39(F)
33(M)
Bus
Car
Bicycle
Method of
transport
(M, W or F after the time indicates that the journey was undertaken
on Monday, Wednesday or Friday respectively.)
Note 1 Each method of transport is used once on each of Monday,
Wednesday and Friday and once for each time of leaving home. Also,
the commuter leaves home at each of the three times on each of the
three days. However, not all combinations are included. For
example, the bus is not used when leaving home at 7.45 am on a
Wednesday.
Note 2 A Latin Square is only possible if each factor has the same number of
levels. In this case, each factor has three levels, which is the minimum
number to enable any useful analysis to be undertaken.
Analysis of a Latin Square The calculation of sums of squares proceeds exactly as for a two
factor model, except that there is now an additional factor (day) which
corresponds to neither row nor column. The degrees of freedom for
each factor is one less than the number of levels (in this case each
factor has three levels and so two degrees of freedom). The total
number of degrees of freedom is one less than the total number of
observations (in this case there are nine observations and so eight
degrees of freedom in total). The sum of squares and degrees of
freedom allocated to each factor amounts to less than the total and
what remains is allocated to the residual.
Bus
Method of transport Car
Bicycle
Total
7.45 am
32(M)
31(F)
37(W)
100
x 2 = 9326
8.15 am
27(W)
30(M)
39(F)
96
8.45 am
38(F)
17(W)
33(M)
88
Total
97
78
109
284
M total 95
W total 81
F total 108
total
SS = 9326 284 = 364.2

9
between
methods
SS =
between
times
(100
SS =
between
days
SS =
remainder
SS = 364.2 162.9 24.9 121.6 = 54.8
(97
(95
2
+ 78 2 + 109 2
284 = 162.9
3
9
2
+ 96 2 + 88 2 284 2
= 24.9
3
9
+ 812 + 108 2 284 2
= 121.6
3
9
37
Source
Method of transport
Time of leaving
Day
Residual
Total
Sum of
Squares
162.9
24.9
121.6
54.8
364.2
Degrees of
Freedom
2
2
2
2
8
Mean
Square
81.4
12.4
60.8
27.4
To complete the analysis it is necessary to assume the model

x ij = + M i + T j + Dl + ij
where is the overall mean
Mi
is the effect of the i th method of transport
Tj
is the effect of the j th time of leaving
Dl
is the effect of the l th day
ij
is N 0, 2
Thus, it is assumed that the effects of method, time and day may be
added together and are independent of each other. The latter
assumption would be violated if, for example, leaving home at
7.45 am tended to lead to the shortest journey times on a Monday but
to the longest journey times on a Friday. If the assumption of
independence (or no interactions) is not valid, the effect will be to
increase the residual sum of squares.
In common with all other analyses of variance, it is assumed that the
experimental error ( ) is a random sample from a normal distribution
with a common variance ( 2 ).
To test the hypothesis H 0 : No difference between methods of
transport, the ratio of the method of transport mean square to the
residual mean square is calculated and compared with a critical value
from F.
In this case 81.4 = 3.0 . The critical value of F2, 2 for a 5% risk is
27.4
19.0 and the null hypothesis must be accepted. Thus, there is no
significant evidence of a difference between methods of transport.
To test for differences between times of leaving, F = 12.4 . Since
27.4
this ratio is < 1, the hypothesis: No difference between times of
leaving can be accepted without further calculation. This is because,
as for all analysis of variance tables, the hypothesis test is one-sided
and the critical value will always be greater than 1.
To test for differences between days, F = 60.8 = 2.2 . The critical
27.4
value of F2 , 2 is 19.0 and there is no significant evidence of a
difference between days.
38
Note 1 For a Latin Square with only 3 levels of each factor, the critical values
are large and so only very marked differences are likely to lead to a
rejection of the null hypothesis. This problem does not arise for
larger Latin Squares. For example, if each factor is at 5 levels, there
are 4 degrees of freedom for each factor and 12 degrees of freedom
for the residual. The critical value of F4, 12 for a 5% risk is 3.26.
Note 2 Although Latin Squares have been introduced in the context of one
main factor of interest and two blocking factors, they may equally be
used where there are two or three main factors of interest. However,
the assumption of independence (or no interactions) should not be
forgotten.
Constructing Latin Squares Standard Latin Squares of any size can be constructed. For example,
each factor at 5 levels gives the following:
row
factor
1
2
3
4
5
1
1
5
4
3
2
column factor
2
3
4
2
3
4
1
2
3
5
1
2
4
5
1
3
4
5
5
5
4
3
2
1
The numbers in bold type represent the levels of the row and column
factors and the numbers in the body represent the levels of the third
factor. This layout would be satisfactory for most purposes.
However, Latin Squares were first developed for use in agricultural
experiments where the layout might represent a square field divided
into 25 similar plots. The row and column factors might represent
the amount of two different fertilizers applied and the third factor
might be different watering regimes. The response would be the yield
of a particular crop. Despite the fact that the plots are supposed to be
of equal fertility, it is impossible to prevent some differences arising.
Therefore, to avoid bias, not only should the different levels of the
factors be allocated at random to the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, but the
rows and columns should themselves be randomised. This should
break up the pattern where, for example, level 1 of the third factor
appears down a diagonal. This is only important if, by chance, the
diagonal across the field was particularly fertile (or particularly
infertile).
The rows could be randomised by following a row of random digits
until four of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 are found.
For example 8 7 0 2 4 7 4 2 2 1 6 9 7 2 1 4 4 5.
The numbers in order are 2 4 1 5 with 3 still to follow.
39
The table would then be rewritten with the original rows in this order:
1
2
3
4
5
1
5
3
1
2
4
2
1
4
2
3
5
3
2
5
3
4
1
4
3
1
4
5
2
5
4
2
5
1
3
The same process is now carried out with the columns. This is to
break up the pattern where, for example, 2 appears immediately to the
right of 1 in all rows except 4. If, this time, the digits came out in the
order 3 2 1 4 5, the final Latin Square would be:
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
5
3
4
1
2
1
4
2
3
5
3
5
3
1
2
4
4
3
1
4
5
2
5
4
2
5
1
3
Note The essential property of Latin Squares, that each level of each factor
appears exactly once with each level of each other factor, is preserved
by this randomisation of rows and columns.
40
10
Resources
10.1 Introduction
A list of recommended resources is given below. The information

listed is correct at the time of going to press.
10.2 Textbooks
The books listed below have been produced specifically for the units
in this specification. Note that the book published by Oxford
University Press has been officially endorsed by AQA.
ADVANCED MATHS FOR AQA: STATISTICS S1
Upton and Cook, Oxford University Press, 2004
ISBN: 0199149372
STATISTICS 1 FOR AQA
Corporate Author SMP, Cambridge University Press, 2004
ISBN: 052160527X
ADVANCING MATHS FOR AQA: STATISTICS 1
2ND EDITION
Williamson, Buqu, Miller and Worth, Heinemann 2004
ISBN: 0435513389
ADVANCING MATHS FOR AQA: STATISTICS 2 & 3
2ND EDITION
Williamson and Buqu, Heinemann 2004
ISBN: 0435513400
The books listed below were written to match the old AQA GCE
Mathematics and Statistics B specification, and between them cover
most of the topics on this new GCE Statistics specification. For
details on how to relate the content of the new specification to the
old, please see Chapter 11 of this guide.
Williamson, Buqu, Miller and Worth, Heinemann 2000
ISBN: 0435513125
Williamson, Heinemann 2001
ISBN: 0435513133
ADVANCING MATHS FOR AQA: STATISTICS 3 & 6
Buqu, Heinemann 2001
ISBN: 0435513141
Williamson and Buqu, Heinemann 2002
ISBN: 043551315X
Williamson and White, Heinemann 2002
ISBN: 0435513222
41

Williamson and White, Heinemann 2002
ISBN: 0435513230
In addition to the books already mentioned, a number of generic
statistics textbooks are also available. These cover some or all of the
specification content, but may also, in some places, go beyond what is
required. Therefore, centres using these books should check with the
specification to see which topics are required and which are not.
While centres may consider some books listed below as an
appropriate primary resource for candidates, other books may be
more appropriate as an additional resource for teachers. The list
below offers some suggestions, but is by no means exhaustive.
UNDERSTANDING STATISTICS
ISBN: 0199143919
COMPLETE ADVANCED LEVEL MATHEMATICS:
STATISTICS
McGill, McLennan and Migliorini, Nelson Thornes, 2000
ISBN: 0748735607
INTRODUCING STATISTICS, SECOND EDITION
ISBN: 019914801
A CONCISE COURSE IN ADVANCED LEVEL STATISTICS
FOURTH EDITION
Crawshaw and Chambers, Nelson Thornes, 2000
ISBN: 074875475X
DISCOVERING ADVANCED MATHEMATICS: STATISTICS
Fentem, Collins Educational, 1996
ISBN: 000322371X
A BASIC COURSE IN STATISTICS
Clarke and Cooke, Hodder Arnold, 1998
ISBN: 0340719958
STATISTICS EXPLAINED: A GUIDE FOR SOCIAL SCIENCE
STUDENTS
Hinton, Routledge, 1995
ISBN: 0415102863
INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODS AND
STATISTICS IN PSYCHOLOGY 2ND EDITION
Coolican, Hodder Arnold, 1996
ISBN: 0340679379
42
11
Relating the content to old

AQA specifications
11.1 Relationship to previous

specification
The following table runs through the GCE Statistics specification,

listing each topic in order and in each case giving the unit where the
topic appears on the old GCE Mathematics and Statistics B
specification. In some cases, in reaching the new topic, the old topic
has been modified in some way. In such cases, the modifications
made to the old topic are also listed.
(Note that, as the Statistics topics in GCE Mathematics A were
divided up very differently to how they are on this new specification,
a comparison with that specification has not been included.)
Topic
New unit code
Unit in GCE Mathematics and

Statistics B
Numerical Measures (some

now in GCSE Maths)
SS1A/SS1B
MBS1
Probability
SS1A/SS1B
MBS1
(plus set notation)
Binomial Distribution
SS1A/SS1B
MBS1
(plus use of formulae)
Normal Distribution
SS1A/SS1B
MBS1
Estimation
SS1A/SS1B
MBS4
(CI for mean using normal)
SS1A/SS1B
MBS1
SS02
MBS2
Sampling
SS02
MBS1 and MBS2
Discrete Probability
Distribution
(includes Poisson)
SS02
MBS1 and MBS4
(includes drawing diagrams)
SS02
MBS1 and MBS2
Hypothesis Testing
SS02
MBS4
(minus contingency tables)
43
44
Contingency Tables
SS03
MBS4
SS03
MBS3
(plus Kruskal-Wallis test)
Correlation
SS03
MBS3
Distributions
(linear combinations)
SS04
MBS7
Distributional
Approximations
SS04
MBS2
Estimation
(mean using t distribution)
(proportion and Poisson
mean)
SS04
MBS2 and MBS4
Hypothesis Testing
(mean using t distribution)
(proportion and Poisson
mean)
SS04
MBS4 and MBS7
Distributions
(rectangular and
exponential distributions)
SS05
MBS4 and MBS7
Estimation
(1 variance using 2
distribution)
SS05
MBS7
Application of
Hypothesis testing
SS05
MBS7
Experimental Design
SS06
MBS8
Analysis of Variance
SS06
MBS8
Statistical Process Control
SS06
MBS8
Acceptance Sampling
SS06
MBS8
Other Information
12
AS and A Level Mathematics
12.1 GCE Mathematics
AQA GCE Mathematics (6360) is a flexible specification offering AS

and A Level qualifications in Mathematics, Further Mathematics, and
Pure Mathematics.
The Mathematics qualifications consist of two-thirds compulsory
Pure units and one-third Applied units: Decision, Mechanics or
Statistics. For those aiming for a full A Level, there is the option to
follow a single application or a mixture of two.
The Further Mathematics qualifications are even more flexible, with a
choice of Pure units, and a flexible ratio of Pure to Applied. Again,
candidates can either follow a single application in depth or choose a
broader mix of two or three applications.
The Pure Mathematics qualifications are based on a combination of
the Pure units used in Mathematics and those used in Further
Mathematics. While most of these units are compulsory, for those
aiming for the full A Level there is some choice over the final A2 unit.
For further details of this specification, please contact the GCE
Mathematics subject department.
45
13
FSMQ and AS Use of

Mathematics
13.1 Free Standing Mathematics

Qualifications
FSMQs (Free Standing Mathematics Qualifications) are qualifications

aimed primarily at candidates who want to continue the study of
Mathematics after GCSE, but do not want to embark on a full AS or
A Level course, at least not immediately.
As a guide, approximately 60 hours teacher-candidate contact time is
recommended for each FSMQ. 50% of the assessment is by
coursework portfolio, with the other 50% being by written paper.
Qualifications are available at 3 different levels: Foundation,
Intermediate and Advanced.
Foundation level is designed for candidates of ability equivalent to
G D at GCSE. There are three Foundation level FSMQs currently
available: Managing Money, Working in 2 and 3 dimensions, and
Making Sense of Data.
Intermediate level is designed for candidates of ability equivalent to
C A* at GCSE. There are five Intermediate level FSMQs currently
available: Calculating Finances, Solving Problems in Shape and Space,
Handling and Interpreting Data, Making Connections in Mathematics,
and Using Algebra, Functions and Graphs.
Advanced level is designed to be of a similar standard to AS level.
There are three Advanced level FSMQs currently available: Using and
Applying Statistics, Working with Algebraic and Graphical
Techniques, and Modelling with Calculus.
For further details about these qualifications, please contact the GCE
13.2 AS Use of Mathematics
AS Use of Mathematics is made up of an Applying Mathematics unit,

assessed by 2 written papers, along with two of the Advanced level
FSMQs.
For further details about this qualification, please contact the GCE
46
14
Glossary of Terms
Advanced Subsidiary
This is the first half of the Advanced Level course.
A2
This is the second half of the Advanced Level course.
Aims
The broad educational or vocational purposes of a qualification.
Assessment Objectives
The criteria used to evaluate candidates attainments.
Assessment Unit
The smallest part of a qualification that can be separately certificated.
C2K
Shorthand for the GCE specifications introduced for first teaching

from September 2000.
Coursework
Tasks set and undertaken during the course which are integral to the
course of study.
Entry Codes
The codes to be used when entering candidates for each unit and each
qualification.
External Assessment
A form of independent assessment in which an awarding body sets or

defines assignments, tests or examinations, specifies the conditions
under which they are to be taken (including details of supervision and
duration), and assesses candidates responses.
Internal Assessment
A form of assessment that does not meet the definition of external

assessment for a general or vocational qualification.
Internal Standardisation
The requirement for centres to standardise assessment across

different teachers and teaching groups to ensure that all candidates at
each centre have been judged against the same standards.
Moderation
The process through which internal assessment is monitored by an

awarding body to ensure that internal assessment is valid, reliable, fair
and consistent with required standards.
Module
Specified teaching and learning requirements associated with an

identifiable part of a qualification.
Shelf-life of units
The length of time a unit can be stored and put towards a subsequent
qualification. For this specification, the shelf-life of units is restricted
only by the life of the specification.
Specification
The complete description of the content, assessment arrangements

and performance requirements for a qualification. This has replaced
the term syllabus.
Staged Assessment
Assessment arrangements in which assessment units are taken

throughout a period of learning.
Synoptic Assessment
A form of assessment which tests candidates understanding of the

connections between the different elements of a subject.
47

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V 1.

AQA Advanced Subsidiary GCE Statistics (5381)

Further copies of this specification booklet are available from:

Assessment and Qualifications Alliance 2004

Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide - Statistics

Where to find information

Assessment of the Course

Finding the right questions in AQA past papers

Organisation of the Course

Delivery of the course

Relating the content to old AQA specifications

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

AS and A Level Mathematics

FSMQ and AS Use of Mathematics

Statistics - Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide

Who is this Teachers Guide

This Teachers Guide has been provided to assist teachers and

Why are new GCE

All Advanced Supplementary and Advanced Level syllabuses were

Why are AS and A Level

The rewritten QCA criteria do not permit the inclusion of subject

Why study Statistics?

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide - Statistics

Why is AS Statistics a valuable addition to post-16 provision?

the first part of an A Level qualification in Statistics.

textbooks are available;

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

Statistics - Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide

Where to find information

This Teachers Guide is intended to complement the information in

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide - Statistics

Coursework is optional for this specification. It forms part of the

Every centre undertaking coursework is assigned a Coursework

Information about this GCE Statistics specification can be found at

AQA regularly holds two kinds of meetings for teachers of AS and

This booklet is sent 4 times a year to Examinations Officers. Any

The GCE Mathematics subject department has a mailing list of

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

Statistics - Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide

AQA, Stag Hill House, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XJ

01483 477 752

AQA, Devas Street, Manchester, M15 6EX

0161 958 3852

Teacher Support Meetings Mathematics

01483 477 859

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide - Statistics

Assessment of the Course

written paper and coursework

Unit Statistics 1B (SS1B)

all questions compulsory; graphics calculator allowed

33.3% of the total AS marks

33.3% of the total AS marks

16.7% of the total A Level marks

Copyright 2004 AQA and its licensors

Unit Statistics 6 (SS06)

16.7% of the total A Level marks

Statistics - Advanced Subsidiary and A Level, Teachers Guide

This section covers a number of issues which relate to assessment

For this specification, candidates are allowed to use any calculator

Statistics 1 can be assessed either by written paper and coursework

Common Statistics 1 unit