Professional Documents
Culture Documents
MasterCard Insights
1Q 2014
Trip Type
2011
LPO
42.6
LPO
21.7
South Korea
AP
12.7
Japan
AP
17.0
India
LPO
5.8
Malaysia
AP
8.9
Taiwan
AP
8.8
Singapore
AP
7.8
Hong Kong
AP
7.1
China
China (ex HK & Macau trips)4
Indonesia
LPO
4.9
Australia
LPO
6.5
Thailand
AP
5.4
Vietnam
AP
2.8
Philippines
LPO
3.0
New Zealand
LPO
1.7
Total - 14 markets
134.9
61.5
73.4
MasterCard Insights
Regional Overview
Collectively, the 14 Asia/Pacific markets are expected to
grow by an annual growth rate of 7.9% over the forecast period of 2014-2020. The largest outbound markets in 2020 will be China, followed by South Korea
and Japan. Even if one excludes all trips to Hong Kong
and Macau (which are technically domestic trips as they
are both parts of China), Mainland China outbound remains the largest in Asia/Pacific in 2020, more than
four times of that of South Korea which is the second
largest market.
2012
2013
2014
2020
2014 -2020
CAGR (Adjusted)
50.5
61.1
71.2
134.0
11.1%
27.3
34.3
40.0
84.8
13.3%
13.7
15.0
15.5
19.2
3.7%
18.5
17.1
17.3
18.4
1.1%
6.4
7.2
7.9
16.5
13.0%
9.6
10.4
10.9
15.2
5.7%
9.4
10.4
10.6
14.2
5.1%
8.0
8.5
8.7
11.8
5.3%
7.8
8.6
8.7
11.6
4.9%
5.4
6.1
6.8
10.6
7.6%
6.9
7.4
8.1
10.0
3.7%
5.7
6.0
6.2
8.7
5.9%
3.4
3.9
4.3
6.4
6.7%
3.2
3.5
3.8
6.2
8.7%
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.3
3.3%
150.3
166.8
181.7
286.3
7.9%
66.1
68.8
70.6
88.7
3.9%
84.1
98.1
111.1
197.5
10.1%
Q1 2014
16%
14%
Outbound Trip Growth Rate <
Real GDP Growth
Outbound Trip
Growth Rate >
Real GDP
Growth
12%
10%
8%
rip
dT
n
ou
tb
Ou
6%
=
ate
R
th
ow
Gr
CN
IN
ID
MY
KR
4%
HK
TW
h
wt
ro
G
P
GD
al
Re
PH
VN
TH
SG
NZ
AU
2%
JP
0%
0%
2%
MasterCard Insights
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Trip Type
2011
2012
2013
2014
2020
LPO
9.9%
11.7%
14.0%
16.3%
29.7%
LPO
5.1%
6.3%
7.9%
9.1%
18.8%
South Korea
AP
68.9%
73.8%
80.2%
82.3%
99.6%
Japan
AP
34.4%
37.4%
34.7%
35.0%
37.7%
India
LPO
2.2%
2.5%
2.7%
3.0%
5.8%
AP
143.9%
150.4%
161.0%
165.5%
211.7%
Taiwan
AP
118.2%
125.8%
139.3%
141.0%
188.2%
Singapore
AP
548.4%
546.4%
562.3%
566.1%
696.4%
AP
283.7%
305.9%
332.5%
334.9%
427.8%
China
China (ex HK & Macau trips)
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Indonesia
LPO
8.1%
8.6%
9.7%
10.7%
15.6%
Australia
LPO
75.9%
78.4%
83.1%
89.1%
102.8%
Thailand
AP
31.1%
32.8%
34.2%
35.0%
48.8%
AP
14.5%
17.2%
19.5%
21.4%
30.0%
Philippines
LPO
16.1%
16.9%
17.9%
19.0%
28.3%
New Zealand
LPO
100.3%
101.9%
103.5%
106.8%
122.4%
15.0%
16.6%
18.2%
19.7%
29.7%
68.8%
73.4%
76.1%
78.0%
96.7%
9.1%
10.3%
11.9%
13.4%
22.6%
Vietnam
Total - 14 markets
Q1 2014
Chart 2. MasterCard Consumer Confidence Index: Japan and Developed Asia/Pacific Compared
100
Optimism
Optimism
Japan
Japan
Asia/Pacific
Developed
Asia/Pacific
Developed
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Pessimism
Pessimism
0
H1
1993
H1
1995
H1
1994
H1
1997
H1
1996
MasterCard Insights
H1
1999
H1
1998
H1
2001
H1
2000
H1
2003
H1
2002
H1
2005
H1
2004
H1
2007
H1
2006
H1
2009
H1
2008
H1
2011
H1
2010
H1
2013
H1
2012
Table 3. Outbound Trip Concentration Among the Higher Household Income Brackets
HH Income
Range
OB trips of range
HH in range
as % of total
as % of total HHs
trips = A
=B
Concentration
Ratio (= A/B)
Taiwan
>US$15k
95.1%
91.7%
1.0
22,002.03
Hong Kong
>US$20k
90.6%
85.5%
1.1
41,420.59
Singapore
>US$30k
86.1%
77.4%
1.1
53,670.98
Australia
>US$45k
95.2%
85.6%
1.1
62,127.16
Japan
>US$45k
85.5%
73.8%
1.2
41,149.60
New Zealand
>US$40k
89.2%
71.0%
1.3
41,806.73
South Korea
>US$25k
90.5%
64.7%
1.4
25,188.93
Malaysia
>US$15k
87.0%
62.0%
1.4
10,651.95
Vietnam
>US$5k
80.5%
37.5%
2.1
2,063.76
Philippines
>US$10k
72.7%
33.7%
2.2
2,938.13
Thailand
>US$10k
88.5%
39.9%
2.2
6,165.62
Indonesia
>US$10k
97.3%
33.6%
2.9
3,432.37
China
>US$10k
92.8%
26.4%
3.5
7,137.89
India
>US$10k
96.3%
8.9%
10.8
1,389.20
Q1 2014
Ratio of
Outbound Trips
to HHs
11.0
IN
4.5
3.5
3.0
ID
2.5
PH
TH
2.0
VN
1.5
KR
MY
NZ
1.0
JP
SG
AU
HK
TW
0.5
$0
$10k
$20k
$30k
$40k
MasterCard Insights
$50k
$60k
$70k
The household propensity for outbound international leisure travel can also be analyzed in terms of
changing household incomes. As shown in Chart 4, at
household income of US$30,000 and above, the average propensity curves for developing and developed
markets follow a similar trajectory although the peaks
of the curves are different (i.e. higher for developed
markets). What is interesting is the shape of the curves
below US$30,000. In the range of household income
between US$10,000 and US$30,000, the gap in the
propensity for outbound travel steadily narrows, suggesting that in this income bracket, households in developing markets are rapidly catching up in their
propensity for outbound travel with their counterparts
in developed markets. But the gap opens up again beyond the US$30,000 income level. For the developing
market households the inflection point is around the
US$10,000 mark after which the propensity for international leisure travel rises rapidly till the US$30,000
level. This inflection point suggests that US$10,000
household income is the threshold level of international
outbound leisure travel for the developing Asia/Pacific
markets.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
< 2.5k
6070k
>150k
8010013070- 90k 90- 120k 120- 140k 14080k
100k
130k
150k
Q1 2014
4.5%, these top five city-country combinations account for 56.3%of the total mindshare. Asia/Pacific
destinations represented in the top 20 make up 14.1%
of mindshare which the fourth ranked Tokyo-Japan
combination accounts for half at 7.0%. The next highest Asia/Pacific destination is Australia (#8) with less
than half (2.4%) of the Tokyo-Japan combination aspirational mindshare. This bodes well for Japan which
just hit 10 million foreign arrivals for 2013 (a record)
on the back of a weakened yen and relaxing of travel
visa restrictions for inbound visitors. The government
plans to double the number of visitors to 20 million by
2020 (which coincidentally is also the year that Tokyo
hosts the Olympic Games).
The developing Asia/Pacific traveler list of top 20
aspirational destinations also features Paris, London
and New York in the top ranks but what is interesting
is that Asia/Pacific destinations have a much stronger
representation with 28.5% of aspirational destinations
within the top 20 list. Singapore which did not even
appear in the top 20 developed Asia/Pacific list ranks
number two in the developing market list. The Tokyo
(#5) - Japan (#7) combination is unique in that it ranks
Paris
8.5%
11
Europe
1.7%
New York
7.0%
12
Los Angeles
1.7%
London
6.7%
13
Hong Kong
1.7%
Japan
4.1%
14
France
1.6%
USA
3.1%
15
Sydney
1.6%
Rome
3.0%
16
Italy
1.5%
Tokyo
2.9%
17
Switzerland
1.5%
Australia
2.4%
18
S. Korea
1.5%
UK
1.8%
19
Maldives
1.2%
10
Hawaii
1.8%
20
Canada
1.1%
MasterCard Insights
very highly in both lists (7.2% in the developing markets top 20 and 7.0% developed markets top 20) with
almost the same percentage. One reason for the
stronger showing of Asia/Pacific destinations within the
developing markets top 20 aspirational list is the relative immaturity of outbound travel in these developing
markets. Two cases in point are the top 20 list of Indonesian residents which features Singapore and Kuala
Lumpur (both short haul destinations) in the top five,
and the top 20 list of Vietnam residents which have
Singapore and Bangkok (both also short haul destinations) in the top six. The appearance of highly ranked
aspirational yet short haul destinations illustrates the
relative immaturity of the Indonesian and Vietnamese
outbound travel market, as a mature market would
have realized the short haul aspirational destinations
earlier in the development cycle (i.e. short haul destinations would not be aspirational in a mature market
as they are the first to be realized after which they stop
being aspirational).
The appearance of domestic destinations in the individual top 20 lists of India (Mumbai, Delhi, Goa and
Srinagar) and Japan (Okinawa, Kyoto and Hokkaido)
Paris
8.4%
11
Seoul
1.8%
Singapore
6.0%
12
Rome
1.8%
London
5.7%
13
Maldives
1.8%
New York
4.3%
14
France
1.6%
Tokyo
4.1%
15
Switzerland
1.6%
USA
3.3%
16
South Korea
1.5%
Japan
3.1%
17
New Zealand
1.3%
Hong Kong
3.0%
18
Bangkok
1.3%
Australia
2.9%
19
Malaysia
1.2%
10
Sydney
2.2%
20
Canada
1.2%
Q1 2014
10
Market Details
Philippines
International outbound leisure travel trips by residents
of the Philippines are estimated at 3.8 million in 2014
and are forecasted to grow by an average of 8.7% per
year to reach 6.2 million trips by 2020. Total outbound
trips will grow about five times faster than total household growth (8.7% versus 1.7%) over the forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households
that is projected to reach 28.3% in 2020 from 19% in
2014.
Table 5. Philippines
Outbound
Leisure purpose
trips only
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.8
6.2
8.7%
Households (mn)
18.4
19.1
19.5
19.8
21.9
1.7%
16.1%
16.9%
17.9%
19.0%
28.3%
Breaking down outbound trips by household income, households earning above US$10,000 per
annum (which make up 34% of all households) will
generate about 73% of all outbound international
leisure trips in 2014. Projecting forward to 2020, the
higher levels of outbound travel growth will come from
the households earning above US$10,000 (34% of
households are in this category and they account for
73% of all outbound travel). The primary driver for this
is that the number of households earning above
US$10,000 are also growing much faster than the
number of households earning below US$10,000.
11
MasterCard Insights
The propensity to travel by household income exhibits a point of inflection at the US$15,000 household
income threshold, where households earning above
US$15,000 per year exhibit a propensity for outbound
leisure travel that is more than twice that of households
earning below US$15,000.
40%
35%
32%
35%
1.5
30%
25%
1.0
1.9
14%
15%
1.7
15%
11%
0.5
20%
10%
8%
0.8
0.8
0.6
5%
0.4
0.0
0%
< 2.5k
2.55k
510k
Q1 2014
1015k
1525k
>25k
12
Thailand
International outbound leisure travel trips by Thai residents are estimated at 6.2 million in 2014, and are
forecasted to grow by an average of 5.9% per year to
reach 8.7 million trips by 2020. As overall household
growth is expected to remain stagnant over the forecast period, the ratio of outbound trips to total households is projected to reach 48.8% in 2020 from 35%
in 2014.
Table 6. Thailand
All Purpose Outbound trips
(includes same-day
cross-border travel to
Malaysia and Laos)
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
5.4
5.7
6.0
6.2
8.7
5.9%
Households (mn)
17.3
17.5
17.5
17.6
17.8
0.2%
31.1%
32.8%
34.2%
35.0%
48.8%
In Thailand about 88% of outbound trips are accounted for by households earning above US$10,000
per annum in 2014. This income range accounts for
about 40% of all households. Projecting forward to
2020, the higher levels of outbound travel growth will
come from the households earning above US$15,000
(25% of households are in this category and they account for 75% of all outbound travel). The primary
driver for this is that the number of households earning above US$15,000 is also growing much faster than
the number of households earning below US$15,000.
13
MasterCard Insights
The propensity to travel by household income exhibits a point of inflection at US$10,000 household income levels at which we see a steeper increase in the
propensity to travel.
100%
85%
87%
81%
2.5
80%
70%
70%
68%
2.0
58%
60%
1.5
42%
2.3
33%
1.0
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.4
40%
2.0
1.6
0.5
15%
0.4
1.2
16%
20%
0.9
0.4
0%
0.0
< 5k
510k
1015k
1520k
2025k
Q1 2014
2530k
3035k
3545k
4570k
70130k
>130k
14
Malaysia
International outbound leisure travel trips by Malaysian
residents are estimated at 10.9 million in 2014, and are
forecasted to grow by an average of 5.7% per year to
reach 15.2 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips
will grow about 4 times faster than total household
growth (5.7% versus 1.5%) over the forecast period
resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households that
is projected to reach 211.7% in 2020 from 165.5% in
2014.
Table 7. Malaysia
All Purpose
Outbound Trips
(excludes cross border land
travel to Singapore)
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
8.9
9.6
10.4
10.9
15.2
5.7%
Households (mn)
6.1
6.4
6.5
6.6
7.2
1.5%
143.9%
150.4%
161.0%
165.5%
211.7%
Breaking down outbound trips by household income, about 87% of outbound trips are accounted for
by households earning above US$15,000 per annum
in 2014. About 62% of all Philippines households fall
into this income bracket. Dividing these percentages
(87% by 62%) yields a concentration ratio of 1.4. A
similar ratio calculated for Thailand and the Philippines
comes in at about 2.2. As mentioned above, India has
the highest ratio among the 14 markets at 10.8.
Projecting forward to 2020, the higher levels of
outbound travel growth in Philippines will come from
the households earning above US$30,000 (28% of
households are in this category and they account for
54% of all outbound travel). The primary driver for this
is that the number of households earning above
US$30,000 is also growing much faster than the num-
15
MasterCard Insights
4.5
91%
85%
4.0
82%
83%
75%
80%
3.5
59%
3.0
53%
60%
2.5
40%
4.0
2.0
33%
3.6
30%
3.6
3.7
40%
3.3
1.5
2.6
2.3
1.0
1.7
1.3
1.4
< 5k
510k
20%
0.5
0.0
0%
1015k
1520k
2025k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the ParisFrance combination is the most desired city-country
destination with 10.2% of mindshare, followed by the
London-UK combination at 9.8%, and Tokyo-Japan at
9.5%. In fourth and fifth position are the Seoul - South
Korea combination with 6.8% and the Sydney - Australia combination with 6.2%. These five combinations
account for close to 42% of total aspirational mindshare. What is interesting for the fourth and fifth
ranked combinations is that the country ranks higher
than the city which is the reverse of the top three. This
implies that the country has a stronger brand name
recognition among Malaysians than the city; in the case
of Paris (#1) and London (#2), the city brand name is
much stronger than the country (France -#29 and UK#14), while Tokyo (#3) is not much higher than Japan
(#4).
Q1 2014
2530k
3035k
3545k
4570k
>70k
16
Singapore
International outbound leisure travel trips by Singaporean residents are estimated at 8.7 million in 2014,
and are forecasted to grow by an average of 5.3% per
year to reach 11.8 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips will grow about three times faster than
total household growth (5.3% versus 1.7%) over the
forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to
households that is projected to reach 696% in 2020
from 566.1% in 2014. Singaporean households have
the highest ratio of outbound trips to households
among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets. The lack of domestic tourism is possibly a strong reason for such high
ratios.International outbound leisure travel trips by Singaporean residents are estimated at 8.7 million in
2014, and are forecasted to grow by an average of
5.3% per year to reach 11.8 million trips by 2020. Total
outbound trips will grow about three times faster than
total household growth (5.3% versus 1.7%) over the
forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to
households that is projected to reach 696% in 2020
from 566.1% in 2014. Singaporean households have
the highest ratio of outbound trips to households
among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets. The lack of domestic tourism is possibly a strong reason for such high
ratios.
Table 8. Singapore
All Purpose Outbound trips
(excludes cross border land
travel to Malaysia)
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
7.8
8.0
8.5
8.7
11.8
5.3%
Households (mn)
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.7%
548.4%
546.4%
562.3%
566.1%
696.4%
About 86% of outbound trips in Singapore are accounted for by households earning above US$30,000
per annum in 2014. This range accounts for about
77.4% of all households and suggests that outbound
travel is quite evenly spread across income levels. The
concentration ratio is therefore 1.1 (86% by 77.4%)
which is the lowest (tied with Taiwan which is also at
1.1) among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets.
Projecting forward to 2020, growth of outbound
travel will come from the households earning above
US$100,000 (21% of households are in this category
and they account for 27% of all outbound travel). The
number of households earning above US$100,000 is
also growing much faster than the number of households earning below US$100,000.
17
MasterCard Insights
The propensity to travel by household income exhibits a linear type curve which is consistent with our
earlier observation that outbound travel by Singaporean residents is quite evenly spread across income
levels.
100%
85%
8.0
87%
88%
90%
93%
93%
78%
75%
80%
7.0
67%
6.0
62%
60%
60%
5.0
4.0
7.2
6.4
3.0
5.1
5.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.9
7.9
40%
6.6
5.6
2.0
20%
1.0
0.0
< 5k
520k
2030k
3040k
4050k
5060k
6070k
7080k
80100k
100140k
>140k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the TokyoJapan combination at 8.6% is the most desired destination followed by the New York-USA combination at
8.7%, the Paris-France combination at 8.6%, and the
London-UK combination at 7.2%. In fifth and sixth position are the Seoul-South Korea combination with
5.9% and the Sydney-Australia combination with
4.9%. These six combinations account for close to
45% of total aspirational mindshare.
Q1 2014
18
Indonesia
International outbound leisure travel trips by Indonesian residents are estimated at 6.8 million in 2014, and
are forecasted to grow by an average of 7.6% per year
to reach 10.6 million trips per year by 2020. Total outbound trips will grow about seven times faster than
total household growth (7.6% versus 1.1%) over the
forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to
households that is projected to reach 15.6% in 2020
from 10.7% in 2014.
Table 9. Indonesia
Outbound Leisure
Purpose trips only
(excludes Singapore and
Malaysia same-day trips)
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
4.9
5.4
6.1
6.8
10.6
7.6%
Households (mn)
60.7
62.1
62.9
63.6
67.8
1.1%
8.1%
8.6%
9.7%
10.7%
15.6%
Breaking down outbound trips by household income, households earning above US$15,000 per
annum constitute about 75% of the all outbound international leisure trips in 2014, and at the same time
makes up only 18% of all households. Dividing these
percentages (75% by 18%) yields a concentration ratio
of 4.2 which presents a very skewed picture of outbound travel where a minority number of households
account for the lion's share of outbound travel. Among
the 14 Asia/Pacific markets covered Indonesia has the
second highest ratio (India is the highest at 10.8), followed by China at 3.6. Projecting forward to 2020, the
higher levels of outbound travel growth will come from
the households earning above US$10,000 (34% of
households are in this category and they account for
97% of all outbound travel).). The primary driver for
19
MasterCard Insights
95%
100%
90%
85%
5.0
80%
70%
4.0
60%
50%
3.0
4.7
4.9
4.4
2.0
3.6
25%
0.1
40%
2.6
18%
14%
1.0
20%
9%
0.9
5%
1%
2%
2%
0.3
0.5
1.3
0.7
0%
0.0
< 2.5k
2.55k
57.5k
7.510k
1015k
1520k
2030k
3040k
4050k
5070k
7090k
90100k
>100k
Q1 2014
20
Vietnam
International outbound leisure travel trips by Vietnamese residents are estimated at 4.3 million in 2014,
and are forecasted to grow by an average of 6.7% per
year to reach 6.4 million trips by 2020. Total outbound
trips will grow about eight times faster than total
household growth (6.7% versus 0.8%) over the forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to
households that is projected to reach to reach 30% in
2020 from 21.4% in 2014.
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
2.8
3.4
3.9
4.3
6.4
6.7%
Households (mn)
19.4
19.8
20.0
20.2
21.2
0.8%
14.5%
17.2%
19.5%
21.4%
30.0%
21
MasterCard Insights
100%
85%
6.0
86%
81%
80%
75%
5.0
64%
69%
60%
4.0
51%
3.0
35%
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.7
40%
4.6
4.2
25%
2.0
20%
3.4
20%
1.0
2.3
10%
1.7
1.3
0.7
0%
0.0
< 5k
2.55k
1015k
1520k
2025k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the ParisFrance combination ranks first with 13.3% of mindshare. Singapore is in second place at 9.9%, and is
followed by the New York-USA combination with
9.6%. The Bangkok-Thailand combination is next with
9.1%, followed by the Tokyo-Japan combination with
8.3%, the London-UK combination at 8.1%, and the
Seoul-Korea combination at 5.9%. These seven destinations account for 64% of total aspirational mindshare. The percentage of Vietnams travelers who
selected Paris (11.9%) and Singapore (9.9%) as aspirational destinations is second highest, after Indonesia,
among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets. Interestingly, only
the Vietnamese selected Bangkok-Thailand (9.1%) as a
top 20 aspirational destination.
Q1 2014
2530k
3035k
3545k
4570k
70130k
>130k
22
China
International outbound leisure travel trips by China's
residents are estimated at 71.2 million in 2014, and are
forecasted to grow by an average of 11.1% per year to
reach 134 million trips by 2020. Excluding Hong Kong
and Macau as destinations, outbound trips are much
lower at 40 million in 2014, but are growing faster and
are projected to reach 84.8 million in 2020 by an average of 13.3% per annum. Total outbound trips will
grow much faster than total household growth (11.1%
versus 0.5%) over the forecast period resulting in a
ratio of outbound trips to households that is projected
to reach 29.7% in 2020 from 16.3% in 2014. Excluding Hong Kong and Macau as destinations, this ratio is
projected to reach 18.8% in 2020 from 9.1% in 2014
2011
42.6
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
50.5
61.1
71.2
134.0
11.1%
21.7
27.3
34.3
40.0
84.8
13.3%
Households (mn)
429.6
432.3
435.1
437.8
451.7
0.5%
9.9%
11.7%
14.0%
16.3%
29.7%
5.1%
6.3%
7.9%
9.1%
18.8%
2012
23
MasterCard Insights
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
90%
81%
80%
72%
3.0
70%
62%
2.5
57%
60%
48%
2.0
50%
1.5
29%
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
40%
2.7
2.3
30%
2.1
1.0
18%
1.8
20%
8%
0.5
1.1
5%
10%
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.0
0%
< 5k
510k
1015k
1520k
2025k
2530k
3035k
3540k
4045k
4550k
5060k
6070k
7080k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the ParisFrance combination ranks first with an overwhelming
14.1% of mindshare (in 2012, Chinese arrivals rank
ninth in terms of tourist arrivals in France by origin
countries, and the first eight ranks are held by European countries and the US). The Sydney-Australia combination follows with 7.9%, then the New York-USA
combination at 7.5%.
China is the largest source market for Maldives, the
number two ranked city location, and the number of
Chinese tourists to Maldives has grown by more than
five times in the five-year period between 2007 and
2012.
Q1 2014
24
India
International outbound leisure travel trips by Indias residents are estimated at 7.9 million in 2014, and are
forecasted to grow by an average of 13.0% per year to
reach 16.5 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips
will grow much faster than total household growth
(13.0% versus 1.1%) over the forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households that is
projected to reach 5.8% in 2020 from 3.0% in 2014.
Among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets, India has the lowest ratio of outbound trips to households and is about
three times lower than China outbound (9.1%, ex HK
and Macau) and Indonesia (10.7%)
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
5.8
6.4
7.2
7.9
16.5
13.0%
Households (mn)
257.4
260.6
263.8
266.9
285.1
1.1%
2.2%
2.5%
2.7%
3.0%
5.8%
25
MasterCard Insights
95%
100%
90%
85%
5.0
80%
70%
4.0
60%
50%
3.0
5.3
40%
4.7
30%
2.0
5.0
40%
3.9
0.1
20%
2.8
1.0
20%
2.2
15%
1.7
5%
0%
0%
0%
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.0
0%
< 2.5k
2.55k
57.5k
7.510k
1015k
1520k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the New YorkUSA combination ranks first with 9.7% of mindshare.
Singapore is next at 8.8%, followed by the London-UK
combination at 6.5%, Malaysia at 4.8%, Australia at
4.3% and Japan at 4.1%. These six destinations account for 37.1% of total aspirational mindshare. Interestingly, only the Indians selected Malaysia (4.8%) as a
top 20 aspirational destination.
2030k
3040k
4050k
5070k
7090k
90100k
>100k
Q1 2014
26
Japan
International outbound leisure travel trips by Japanese
residents are estimated at 17.3 million in 2014, and are
forecasted to grow by an average of 1.1% per year to
reach 18.4 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips
will grow faster than total household growth which is
declining (1.1% versus -0.2%) over the forecast period
resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households that
is projected to reach 37.7% in 2020 from 35.0% in
2014. This ratio is the lowest among the seven developed markets in Asia/Pacific covered. The next lowest
ratio for a developed market is Korea with 82.3%
which is more than double Japan's.
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
17.0
18.5
17.1
17.3
18.4
1.1%
Households (mn)
49.4
49.4
49.4
49.3
48.9
- 0.2%
34.4%
37.4%
34.7%
35.0%
37.7%
About 80% of outbound trips in Japan are accounted for by households earning above US$50,000
per annum in 2014. This range accounts for about
65.4% of all households and suggests that outbound
travel is quite evenly spread across income levels. Projecting forward to 2020, outbound travel growth will
come from the households earning between
US$25,000-US$70,000 (62% of households are in this
category and they account for 42% of all outbound
travel). The total number of Japanese households is
slowly declining but households in this income bracket
are still increasing (albeit at a very low rate of growth).
The propensity to travel by household income exhibits a point of inflection at the US$70,000 household
income threshold, above which it rises more rapidly.
Despite the inflection point, the overall propensity
27
MasterCard Insights
70%
59%
1.6
60%
48%
1.4
44%
50%
41%
1.2
40%
1.0
30%
27%
0.8
31%
1.7
29%
26%
20%
0.6
30%
1.4
1.3
1.2
16%
20%
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
10%
0.2
0.0
0%
< 10k
1025k
2535k
3545k
4550k
5060k
6070k
7090k
90120k
120150k
>150k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the ParisFrance combination ranks first with 9.5% of mindshare. The New York- USA combination follows at
6.8%, then the Rome-Italy combination at 5.8%, the
US state of Hawaii at 5.4%, and London at 4.7%.
Three of the top 20 aspirational destinations are (Okinawa - #7, Kyoto - #12 and Hokkaido - #18). This suggests that there is still some pent up demand for
domestic travel which competes with international
travel for the overall household travel budget and may
explain in part why the propensity to consume has a
lower trajectory rate compared to South Korea which
has no domestic locations within its list of aspirational
destinations.
Q1 2014
28
Australia
International outbound leisure travel trips by Australian
residents are estimated at 8.1 million in 2014, and are
forecast to grow by an average of 3.7% per year to
reach 10 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips will
grow about three times faster than total household
growth (3.7% versus 1.2%) over the forecast period
resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households that
is projected to reach 102.8% in 2020 from 89.1% in
2014.
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
6.5
6.9
7.4
8.1
10.0
3.7%
Households (mn)
8.6
8.8
8.9
9.0
9.7
1.2%
75.9%
78.4%
83.1%
89.1%
102.8%
29
MasterCard Insights
2.5
70%
70%
65%
2.0
57%
53%
60%
55%
50%
50%
1.5
43%
39%
40%
41%
40%
35%
1.0
27%
30%
2.0
30%
1.8
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.6
20%
1.2
0.8
10%
0.0
0%
< 20k
2030k
3040k
4045k
4550k
5060k
6070k
7080k
8090k
90100k
100120k
120150k
>150k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the New YorkUSA combination is the most desired at 13.8%. This is
followed by the London-UK combination at 12.5%,
the Paris-France combination at 11.8%, the Rome-Italy
combination at 5.6%, and the Tokyo-Japan combination at 3.9%. These five combinations account for
close to 46% of total aspirational mindshare. It is interesting to note that there are five US destinations in
the top 20 (including the country itself as a destination)
which account for almost 20% of total mindshare.
Q1 2014
30
New Zealand
International outbound leisure travel trips by New
Zealand residents are estimated at 1.9 million in 2014,
and are forecasted to grow by an average of 3.3% per
year to reach 2.3 million trips by 2020. Total outbound
trips will grow over three times faster than total household growth (3.3% versus 1.0%) over the forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households
that is projected to reach 122.4% in 2020 from
106.8% in 2014.
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.3
3.3%
Households (mn)
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.0%
100.3%
101.9%
103.5%
106.8%
122.4%
31
MasterCard Insights
outbound travel rises more rapidly. Despite the inflection point, the overall propensity curve is still more or
less linear which is consistent with our earlier observation that outbound travel by New Zealand residents is
quite evenly spread across income levels.
3.5
70%
3.0
70%
64%
63%
60%
57%
2.5
50%
45%
2.0
41%
41%
42%
40%
3.2
1.5
30%
2.7
25%
1.0
2.7
30%
2.4
20%
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
20%
1.3
0.5
1.0
10%
0.8
0.0
0%
< 15k
1525k
2535k
3540k
4050k
5060k
6070k
7080k
80100k
100130k
>130k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the LondonUK combination is the most desired destination at
12.4%. This is followed by the New York-USA combination at 11.3%, and the Paris-France combination at
11.2%. These three combinations account for close to
35% of total aspirational mindshare. There are five US
destinations in the top 20 (including the country itself
as a destination) which account for almost 17% of
total mindshare.
Q1 2014
32
South Korea
International outbound leisure travel trips by South Korean residents are estimated at 15.5 million in 2014,
and are forecasted to grow by an average of 3.7% per
year to reach 19.2 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips will grow much faster than total household
growth (3.7% versus 0.4%) over the forecast period
resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to households that
is projected to reach 99.6% in 2020 from 82.3% in
2014. Among the seven developed economies covered, South Korea has the second lowest ratio after
Japan (35% in 2014)
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
12.7
13.7
15.0
15.5
19.2
3.7%
Households (mn)
18.4
18.6
18.7
18.8
19.3
0.4%
68.9%
73.8%
80.2%
82.3%
99.6%
33
MasterCard Insights
3.5
77%
72%
80%
70%
3.0
65%
62%
70%
59%
54%
2.5
60%
46%
2.0
50%
42%
37%
3.2
1.5
2.9
2.5
25%
1.0
21%
2.6
3.0
2.3
22%
1.8
30%
1.9
1.5
0.5
40%
2.7
20%
1.1
0.9
0.9
10%
0%
0.0
< 20k
2030k
3040k
4045k
4550k
5060k
6070k
7080k
8090k
90100k
100120k
120150k
>150k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the ParisFrance combination is the most desired destination at
13.8%. This is followed by the New York-USA combination at 11.0%, and the London-UK combination at
6.7%. The Sydney-Australia combination follows with
7.9%, and the Rome-Italy combination comes next at
5.6%. These five combinations account for close to
45% of total aspirational mindshare. There are four US
destinations in the top 20 (including the country itself
as a destination) which account for almost 16% of
total mindshare.
Q1 2014
34
Hong Kong
International outbound leisure travel trips by Hong
Kong residents are estimated at 8.7 million in 2014,
and are forecasted to grow by an average of 4.9% per
year to reach 11.6 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips will grow about seven times faster than
total household growth (4.9% versus 0.7%) over the
forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips to
households that is projected to reach 427.8% in 2020
from 334.9% in 2014. Hong Kong households have
the second highest ratio of outbound trips to households after Singapore, among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets covered (335% in 2014; Singapore at 566%). The
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
7.1
7.8
8.6
8.7
11.6
4.9%
Households (mn)
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
0.7%
283.7%
305.9%
332.5%
334.9%
427.8%
Some 74% of outbound trips in Hong Kong are accounted for by households earning above US$35,000
per annum in 2014. This range accounts for about
60.4% of all households and suggests that outbound
travel is quite evenly spread across income levels. Dividing these percentages (74.3% by 60.4%) yields a
ratio of concentration 1.2 which is the 3rd lowest (after
Singapore and Taiwan which are tied at 1.1) among the
14 Asia/Pacific markets, which means outbound travel
by Hong Kong residents is the most evenly spread
across income levels.
Projecting forward to 2020, most outbound travel
growth will come from households earning above
US$80,000 (20% of households are in this category
and they account for 29% of all outbound travel). The
primary driver for this is that the number of households
35
MasterCard Insights
120%
95%
5.0
84%
82%
87%
96%
96%
97%
94%
90%
100%
82%
4.0
80%
64%
64%
60%
3.0
4.3
2.0
3.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
3.4
40%
1.0
20%
0.0
0%
<20k
2035k
3545k
4550k
5060k
6070k
7080k
8090k
90100k
100120k
120140k
>140k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the Tokyo Japan combination is the most desired destination at
14.7%. This is followed by the London-UK combination at 8.0%, and the New York-USA combination at
6.0%. Australia follows with 5.7% and South Korea
comes next at 4.2%. These five combinations account
for close to 42% of total aspirational mindshare. Eight
of the top 20 destinations are within Asia/Pacific with
Japan (#1) being the highest ranked one.
Q1 2014
36
Taiwan
International outbound leisure travel trips by Taiwanese
residents are estimated at 10.6 million in 2014, and are
forecasted to grow by an average of 5.1% per year to
reach 14.2 million trips by 2020. Total outbound trips
will grow much faster than total household growth
(5.1% versus 0.2%) over the forecast period resulting
in a ratio of outbound trips to households that is projected to reach 188.2% in 2020 from 141% in 2014.
travel is quite evenly spread across income levels. Dividing these percentages (82% by 73%) yields a concentration ratio of 1.1 which is the lowest (tied with
Singapore which is also at 1.1) among the 14 Asia/Pacific markets.
Close to 82% of outbound trips in Taiwan are accounted for by households earning above US$25,000
per annum in 2014. This range accounts for about
73% of all households and suggests that outbound
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
2020 f
2014-2020
CAGR
8.8
9.4
10.4
10.6
14.2
5.1%
Households (mn)
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.6
0.2%
118.2%
125.8%
139.3%
141.0%
188.2%
37
MasterCard Insights
90%
81%
80%
2.5
67%
64%
70%
59%
54%
2.0
60%
50%
50%
40%
1.5
2.8
40%
30%
2.2
1.0
1.9
2.3
2.0
30%
1.7
1.4
0.5
20%
1.0
10%
0%
0.0
<2.5k
2.55k
515k
1525k
2535k
3545k
4560k
>60k
In terms of aspirational destinations, the Tokyo Japan combination is the most desired destination at
14.7%. This is followed by the Paris-France combination at 9.2%, the New York - USA combination at
8.1%, and the London - UK combination at 5.1%.
These four combinations account for close to 37% of
total aspirational mindshare. There are four Japanese
destinations in the top 20 (including the country itself
as a destination) which account for almost 18% of
total mindshare. Nine of the top 20 destinations are
within Asia/Pacific with Japan being the highest ranked
one.
Q1 2014
38
39
MasterCard Insights
Appendix: Research
Methodology and Data Sources
Forecasting Methodology
Q1 2014
40
41
MasterCard Insights
Yuwa Hedrick-Wong
Yuwa is currently Chief Economist, MasterCard Center
for Inclusive Growth, and Global Economic Advisor,
MasterCard. He is also HSBC Professor of International
Business at the University of British Columbia, Canada.
He is an economist with 25 years of experience
gained in over thirty countries. He is a Canadian who
grew up in Vancouver and has spent the last 20 years
working in Europe, Sub-Sahara Africa, and Asia/Pacific.
He has served as advisor to over fifty leading multinational companies.
He is a published author on consumer markets,
economic development, trade and international relations. Yuwa studied philosophy, political science, and
economics at Trent University, and pursued post-graduate training at the University of British Columbia and
Simon Fraser University in Canada, where he received
his Ph.D.
He lives on Salt Spring Island, off the west coast of
Canada, with his wife and their cat; and is an enthusiastic apprentice in the fine art of gardening.
Q1 2014
42
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2011
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