A Metamodel for Disaster Risk Models

Wawan Hendriawan Nur

Fazat Nur Azizah

Saiful Akbar

School of Electrical Engineering and

Informatics
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Bandung, Indonesia
2
Research Center for Geotechnology
Indonesian Institute of Science
Bandung, Indonesia
wawa018@lipi.go.id

School of Electrical Engineering

and Informatics
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Bandung, Indonesia
fazat@informatika.org

School of Electrical Engineering and

Informatics
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Bandung, Indonesia
saiful@informatika.org

AbstractAs the world faces an increasing number of both

natural and social disasters, attempts to support disaster risk
reduction are also increasing. Although there is a general rule to
calculate the disaster risk on an area based on the components of
hazard, vulnerability, and capacity, disaster risk studies result in
a number of disaster risk models which present different
characteristics in terms of the number of components involved,
indicators, and the calculations. This poses a difficulty for disaster
analysts to choose the most appropriate model to calculate the
disaster risk of an area. Moreover, they often need to adapt the
existing models or even to create new models in order to provide
the most suitable way of calculating the disaster risks. Therefore,
a mechanism that enables the use of different kinds of disaster
risk model and the creation of new models is required. This paper
presents a metamodel of disaster risk based on a study on a
number of disaster risk models used in Indonesia: the BNPB
(Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana) disaster risk model,
the volcanic disaster risk model using SMART (Simple Multi
Attribute Rating Technique) method, and the tidal flooding
disaster risk model using fuzzy method. The metamodel is
presented in an entity-relationship model. It is basically a spatial
data model since the components and indicators for the
calculation of disaster risks are always associated to the space on
earth. The metamodel is implemented on top of ArcGIS software.
Using Phyton Add-in, the software is adapted by adding new
functionalities to calculate the disaster risk of an area and to
create new disaster risk models.

used to model components, indicators, and disaster risk

calculation formula. The understanding of disaster risk requires
an understanding of the components of disaster risk. The
relation among the disaster risk components is presented in
equation (1).
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability
Capacity

(1)

Various disaster risk models have been developed,

comprising of many components, indicators, as well as different
methods of calculation. This creates a difficulty for disaster risk
analysis to determine which disaster risk model to be used when
tried to assess the disaster risk of an area. An area can have
different characteristics from other areas. Therefore, an
appropriate disaster risk model must be employed for the area,
based on the availability of data.

Keywords ArcGIS; BNPB; disaster; disaster risk map; disaster

risk model; disaster risk reduction; metamodel.

This research focuses on providing a generic model that

incorporates a wide range of disaster risk models. Such generic
model is expected to accommodate the need of to use different
kinds of model in the analysis of disaster risk in a single tool.
Furthermore, if new disaster risk model is required, due to some
limitations on data, or other purposes, the generic model is
expected to be able to cope with it. A metamodeling approach is
used by studying 3 (three) typical disaster risk models used in
Indonesia: the BNPB (Badan Nasional Penanggulangan
Bencana) disaster risk model, the SMART disaster risk model,
and the Fuzzy disaster risk model.

I. INTRODUCTION

II. LITERATURE STUDY

Due to its geographical position, Indonesia is prone to

natural hazards [1]. As a lesson learned from a number of
natural disasters that had caused the loss of property and life in
Indonesia, the awareness of disasters and disaster management
in Indonesia has been increasing. In 2007, the government
passed Law No. 24 on disaster management in Indonesia. The
act requires the local governments to be able to conduct disaster
risk assessments in areas as a part of the effort for disaster risk
reduction.

Disaster is an event of a sudden or great misfortune that

interfere with the basic composition and functions of a
community or communities [2]. Disaster risk assessments is an
integrated mechanism to conduct a regional disaster risk
analysis based on the hazard, vulnerability, and capacity [3].
Hazard is a condition with the possibility of danger in a region.
Vulnerability is a condition of a community or communities
which leads to an inability in the face of danger. Capacity is the
ability of a region and its communities to take action to reduce
the level of threat and the level of catastrophic losses.

Disaster risk assessment is aimed at calculating the disaster

risk in an area. Disaster risk is usually visualized in the disaster
risk map. In calculating the disaster risk, disaster risk model is

A disaster risk model is used in the assessment of disaster

risk. Several prominent disaster risk models used in Indonesia
are: the disaster risk model of BNPB, the volcanic disaster risk

models using the SMART (Simple Multi Attribute Rating

Technique) method, and the tidal flood disaster risk model using
fuzzy method.
A. The Disaster Risk Model of BNPB
In 2012, BNPB as the coordinator and executor of disaster
management in Indonesia issued Peraturan Kepala (Perka)
BNPB No. 2 as a guideline for disaster risk assessment in
Indonesia. This Perka explains how to perform risk assessment
of disasters in Indonesia and how to calculate the risk of
disaster. To calculate the disaster risk map, BNPB creates a
disaster risk model. The disaster risk model becomes the
common reference of the assessment of disaster risk in
Indonesia [4].
The guideline outlines the essential components and
indicators of a disaster risk model as well as the formula to
calculate the disaster risk. The model is composed by three
main components: hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. For each
component, a number of indicators are defined. To calculate the
disaster risk, each indicators are given different weight using
AHP (Analysis Hierarchical Process). The guideline also
defines 13 (thirteen) types of hazard: earthquake, tsunami,
flood, landslide, volcanic eruption, abrasion, extreme weather,
drought, forest and land fire, building and settlement fire,
epidemic and outbreak of disease, technological failure, and
social conflict.
B. Disaster Risk Model using SMART Method
The disaster risk model using the SMART method is used to
calculate the risk of volcanic disaster. The disaster risk model is
composed also by three main components: hazard, vulnerability,
and capacity [5].
The disaster risk model using the SMART is a development
from BNPB disaster risk model. It focuses on the use of land as
an indicator of vulnerability. As in the BNPB disaster risk
model, a number of indicators are defined for each of the
component. The weight of each indicators is determined using
the SMART method.
C. Disaster Risk Model using Fuzzy Method
The disaster risk model using the fuzzy method is used to
calculate the risk of tidal flood hazard. With a reference to the
BNPB risk models, the risk model uses fuzzy method to
determine the weight of each component and indicators
contained in the model. The disaster risk model is also
composed by the components hazard, vulnerability, and
capacity [6].

A. The Disaster Risk Model of BNPB

As stated in section II, the disaster risk model of BNPB is
often cited as a reference in calculating the risk of disaster in
Indonesia both for natural and non-natural hazard.
The vulnerability component of the model is composed by
several subcomponents: social, economic, physical, and
environmental vulnerability. Each subcomponent consists of
several indicators. The components and indicators involved in
the BNPB disaster risk model are shown in Table I.
TABLE I.

THE COMPONENTS AND INDICATORS OF THE DISASTER RISK

MODEL OF BNPB

Indicator
Hazard
Population density
Sex ratio
Ratio of poverty
Ratio of disable people
Ratio of age
Productive land
Gross Domestic Product
Home
Public facility
Critical facility
Forest
Protected forest
Mangrove forest
Shrubs
Swamp
Rules and disaster
management institutions
Early warning and disaster
risk assessment
Disaster education
Basic disaster risk factor
reduction
Development of disaster
preparedness

Component
Hazard

0.6
0.1
0.1
0.1
01
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0

Social

0.4

Economic

0.25

Physical

0.25

Environmental

0.1

Vulnerability

0.2
0.2
Capacity

0.2
0.2
0.2

Note: W : weight

Each of the components, subcomponents, and indicators of

disaster risk model is assigned a weight value that is used to
calculate the risk of a disaster. The disaster risk is then
calculated using equation (2) based on the calculation of
components hazard, vulnerability, and capacity.
Risk =

III. THE METAMODEL OF DISASTER RISK MODELS

Although there is a general rule to calculate the disaster risk
on a certain area based on hazard, vulnerability, and capacity,
disaster risk studies result in a number of disaster risk models
which present different characteristics in terms of the number of
components involved, indicators, and the calculations. In this
research, we proposed a metamodel created based on three
prominent disaster risk models in Indonesia: the BNPB disaster
risk model, the volcanic disaster risk model using SMART
method, and the tidal flood disaster risk model using fuzzy
method.

Subcomponent

H*V*(1-C)

(2)

Description:
R: Risk, the disaster risk.
H: Hazard, the frequency of certain disasters occur with
particular intensity at a particular location.
V: Vulnerability, the impact of a particular disaster.
C: Capacity, the capacity to recover from a certain
disaster.

A disaster risk map is then created by overlaying the

calculation of the components of hazard, vulnerability, and
capacity as well as the overall disaster risk on top of a basemap.
B. The Disaster Risk Model Using SMART Method
The components of the disaster risk model using SMART
methods are composed of hazard, vulnerability, and capacity.
This disaster risk model is used to model volcanic disaster risk.
The vulnerability component of this disaster risk model employs
a landuse map that illustrates the condition of social, economy,
and communities in the area. The capacity component consists
of indicators representing the condition of society and the
government in some aspects. The data for the capacity
component are obtained by observation or interviews with
community members and governments. The components and
indicators of the disaster risk model using SMART method are
shown in Table II.
TABLE II.

THE COMPONENTS AND INDICATORS OF THE DISASTER RISK

MODEL USING SMART METHOD
Indicator

Hazard
Developed region
Rice field
Plantation
Field
Forest
Grassland and groves
Water area
Top of the mountain
The early warning system
Knowledge of disaster
Infrastructure
Institutions

W
100
80
60
40
30
20
10
5
0.2
0.35
0.3
0.15

Component
Hazard

Vulnerability

Capacity

W
0.5

0.25

0.25

Note: W : weight

The disaster risk is then calculated using equation (2). The

end result of the disaster risk model using SMART method is
presented on a disaster risk map by overlaying the result of the
calculation of the component of hazard, vulnerability, and
capacity as well as the overall disaster risk on top of a basemap.
C. The Disaster Risk Model Using the Fuzzy Method
The disaster risk model using fuzzy method is composed by
components hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. The disaster
risk model using fuzzy method is used to calculate the risk of
tidal flood hazard. The vulnerability component is composed by
several subcomponents: social, economic, physical, and
environmental vulnerability. Each subcomponent consists of
several indicators. The social vulnerability is the vulnarable
conditions associated to the public or the population in an area.
The economic vulnerability is a vulnerable condition related to
the economy of the community or the population. The physical
vulnerability is a vulnerable condition related to the houses and
buildings located in an area. The environmental vulnerability is
a vulnerable condition related to the environment in an area.
The capacity component consists of indicators representing
the condition of the society and the government in some
aspects. The capacity data are obtained by observation or

interviews with community members and governments. The

components and indicators of the disaster risk model using the
fuzzy method is shown in Table III.
TABLE III.

THE COMPONENTS AND INDICATORS OF THE DISASTER RISK

MODEL USING FUZZY METHOD

Indicators
Hazard
Population density
Percentage of poverty
Percecntage of pregnant
Percentage of toddler
Percentage of elderly
Productive lands
Area of economic value
Unemployment
Total economic resources
Percentage of electricity
networks
Percentage of the road
network
Percentage of
telecommunications
networks
Percentage of the
developed regions
Percentage of the number
of buildings
Percentage of nonpermanent buildings
Area of mangrove
Rice fields
Broad pastures
Area of wetlands
Number of health workers
Number of health facilities
Dissemination of disaster
Obtaining assistance
Development of disaster
preparedness

Subcomponent

Component

Hazard
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25

Social

0.4

Economic

0.25

0.2

Vulnerability

0.2
0.2

Physical

0.25

Environmental

0.1

0.2
0.1
0.1
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2

`
Capacity

0.2

Note: W: weight

The disaster risk is then calculated using equation (2). A

disaster risk map is then created by overlaying the calculation of
the components of hazard, vulnerability, and capacity as well as
the overall disaster risk on top of a basemap.
D. The Metamodel of Disaster Risk Models
From the discussion of the essential components and
indicators, in general, the disaster risk models contain the
following characteristics:
Component: the main entity of a disaster risk model.
Based on the discussion on the disaster risk models, it is
concluded that each model consists of components of
hazard, vulnerability, and capacity.
Subcomponent: a part of disaster risk component. For
example, the component vulnerability of the BNPB
disaster risk model consists of subcomponents of social,
economic, physical, and environmental vulnerability.

 The components and subcomponents of a disaster risk

model consist of indicators with values that describe the
real condition of an area.
Each of the components, subcomponents, and the
indicators is assigned a weight that is used for the
calculation of the disaster risk.
The relationship among the components, subcomponents,
and indicators of a disaster risk model can be defined in the
form of a tree structure, representing the hierarchy of the
components the model. The structure is similar to that of
composition pattern in [7]. See Fig. 1 for the hierarchy.
Component

Subcomponent

Indicator

Indicator
Fig. 2. The metamodel framework for disaster risk models
Indicator

Fig. 1. The hierachy of components, subcomponents, and indicators of a

disaster risk model

Based on the structure, a metamodel is determined. The

metamodel describes the components, subcomponents, as well
as the indicators that build a disaster risk model. A framework
to use the metamodel for calculating a disaster risk based on a
certain disaster risk model is shown in Fig. 2. As shown in Fig.
2, the metamodel can be applied for all kinds of disaster risk
model.
The metamodel of disaster risk model is an abstraction of
the various models of disaster risk. The metamodel of disaster
risk model is then represented in an Entity-Relationship (ER)
model. The ER model illustrates the relationships among the
components, subcomponents, indicators, as well as the value
and weight of each component, subcomponent, and indicator.
The disaster risk can then be calculated based on a particular
equation. See Fig. 3 for the ER diagram of the metamodel.
The metamodel disaster risk model is expected to be
generic, so that it can accommodate existing disaster risk
models and can accommodate new models that may be
developed in the future.

IV. THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE METAMODEL

A system is designed and developed based on the
metamodel. The system is implemented on top of ArcGIS
technology using Phyton Add-in.
A. The System Requirements
The system requirements are as following:
The user of the system is a disaster analyst (a person
with the expertise and the understanding in disaster risk
assessments).
Two main functions in the system are: (1) to calculate
the disaster risk of an area based on a certain disaster
risk model; and (2) to create a new or to change an
existing disaster risk model.
B. The System Architecture
The architecture of the system is designed based on the use
of the metamodel of disaster risk models. The architecture can
be observed in Fig. 4. Three major components are defined:
The ArcGIS system for displaying the disaster risk
model and managing the spatial data,
Spatial database using Microsoft Access,
Python Add-in that is used to provide the functions to
calculate the disaster risk based on a disaster risk model
and the related values and formula.
The spatial database plays a major component of the system.
Each of the components, subcomponents, and indicators are
defined on a space on earth. Therefore, a spatial database is
used. The spatial database is managed in Microsoft Access.

Fig. 3. The metamodel of the disaster risk models in ER Diagram

The ArcGIS software system is most popular GIS software.

ArcGIS is used to display the disaster risk model and to manage
the disaster risk data.

Python Add-in is used by adding a functionality on top of

ArcGIS software to perform the disaster risk calculations
automatically [8]. Using the Python Add-in, we are allowed to
easily create, share, and add tools necessary for managing the
disaster risk models. Fig. 5 shows the toolbars with special
functions to calculate disaster risk models based on the existing
spatial database.

Fig. 5. The toolbar for disaster risk calculation created on ArcGIS

V. CASE STUDY

Fig. 4. The system architecture

To test the implementation of the metamodel in the system,

a case study is described. The case study involves the data of
Kabupaten (district) Karangasem, Bali Province. The data of
hazard are prepared using the volcanic hazard map prepared by
Pusat Mitigasi Bencana Vulkanologi dan Geologi (the Agency
for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation). The
vulnerability data are taken from the Biro Pusat Statistik
(Central Bureau of Statistics). For the capacity data are dummy
data (assumptions) because of the unavailability of real data.
The vulnerability and capacity data of Kabupaten Karangasem
are defined with three different classes: low, medium, and high.
The qualitative values are translated into quantitative values:

high-grade-class (tinggi) index of 1, the middle-class

(menengah) index of 0.66 and a low-value-class (rendah) index
of 0.33.

As can be seen in Fig. 8, the disaster risk map of Kabupaten

Karangasem shows that the risk indexes for aech village. The
high or medium risk index means that the area has a high or
medium level vulnerability, low capacity, and high or medium
threat of hazard.
VI. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS
In this paper, we present our work on the metamodel of
disaster risk models based on a study of three disaster risk
models discussed. A disaster risk model contains three major
components: hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. Each of the
component contain subcomponents or indicators, forming a
hiearchy. The metamodel is created based on this hiearchy and
it can accommodate different disaster risk models and makes it
possible to create a new model.

Fig. 6. The vulnerability component map of Kabupaten Karangasem based on

the BNPB disaster risk model

We have adapted ArcGIS using Phyton Add-in to contain

the metamodel and added new functionalities to create new
disaster risk models and to calculate the disaster risk of a certain
area based on a chosen disaster risk model and the data related
to the area. It is expected that this system can be used by
disaster analysits to help analyzing the disaster risk of an area
using different models.
Further studies and testing are still required to provide
evidence of the contribution of the metamodel and the system in
assisting disaster risk analysis. The work are based on disaster
risk models in Indonesia. Therefore, we need to test the result
further to check whether the concept works in a more global
context. Another possible improvement of the metamodel is to
consider the temporal aspect of disaster data.
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Fig. 7. The capacity component map of Kabupaten Karangasem based on the

BNPB disaster risk model

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Fig. 8. The disaster risk map of Kabupaten Karangasem based on the BNPB
disaster risk model

Using the toolbar of the disaster risk model developed, we

created the BNPB disaster risk model for the volcanic hazard.
The result of calculation is shown in Fig. 6 (focuses on the
vulnerability component), Fig. 7 (focuses on the capacity
component), and Fig. 8 (the disaster risk map).

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